The Economist provides thoughtful analysis and succinct recommendations on major news stories and emerging trends. Wes has been reading since 2013.
| Date | Note | Section | Sub-Section |
| 3/9/2024 | Joe Rogan and Bella Hadid are both pushing their own pills marketed to improve brain function ("nootropics"). Most include amino acids, herbal extracts, probiotics, vitamins, and mushrooms. In demand from older consumers fearing decline and younger ones keen to excel in the face of millenial angst, the market is expected to grow ~15% annually (and is only loosely regulated). | Business & Economics | Healthcare |
| 3/9/2024 | With over half the world's population expected to be overweight or obese by 2030, demand for weight loss drugs is assured. Already more than 70 companies are running trials to compete with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. | Business & Economics | Healthcare |
| 3/2/2024 | MS occurs when a patient’s immune system attacks their myelin--the fatty tissue that insulates the nerve cells of their brain and spinal cord. This is caused by Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV), which also causes mononucleosis and infects about 95% of the population (for most it lingers harmlessly). Nonetheless, Moderna and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases are developing vaccines targeting an EBV protein. | Science & Technology | Healthcare |
| 3/2/2024 | The PA faces three main obstacles. It is broke, relying on Israel to collect taxes representing 64% of revenue. Mr. Abbas has become more autocratic, postponing elections and neutering courts. Lastly, without a credible chance of ending Israel's occupation of the 1967 territories, Palestinians don't view the PA as legitimate. | Middle East & Africa | Palestine |
| 3/2/2024 | English Premier League's 2013 Profit and Sustainability Rules prohibit clubs from losing ~130M for three consecutive years (with some exceptions like stadium renovations). While intended to prevent teams from going bust seeking glory (and has reduced insolvencies), it favors richer incumbents and constrains challengers. | Other | Sports |
| 2/24/2024 | Beyond directing donors’ dollars and making a few hiring decisions (most senior employees are tenured anyway), university presidents wield surprisingly little formal power. Their job is to keep a motley crew of interested parties happy, but that is becoming increasingly unwieldy amidst the culture wars over diversity and free speech. | United States | Education |
| 2/24/2024 | KSA King Abdulaziz banned alcohol in 1952 after one of his sons got drunk at a diplomatic function and killed Britain’s vice-consul. In January the kingdom unexpectedly opened its first liquor store, open only to non-Muslim diplomats with a limit on purchases. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 2/24/2024 | The drone attack which killed three soldiers in Jordan on January 28th was the first successful attack on American troops by aircraft since the Korean war | United States | Military |
| 2/17/2024 | Ukrainians are believed to be fighting in Sudan's civil war against Russia/Wagner to disrupt good exports, traffic weapons, and send a message. | Africa | Sudan |
| 2/17/2024 | The Houthis treat UN aid as a cash cow, taxing shipments, selling aid, and charging customs fees at checkpoints. They insist on using their list of beneficiaries and have barred access to international aid workers (whom they treat like western spies). Still, the UN tolerates it because 20m could starve if they pull out. | Middle East & Africa | Yemen |
| 2/17/2024 | Although 25 states ban first cousin marriages, the genetic risk is relatively low (about 2% higher than normal, and much lower than two CF carriers, for example). Charles Darwin and Albert Einstein both married first cousins. | United States | Science & Technology |
| 2/10/2024 | Evolved from racing quadcopters, first-person view (FPV) drones are democratizing precision weaponry from Ukraine to Malaysia. Its (largely commercial) technology will spread from armies to militias, terrorists, and criminals. Even with anti-jamming kit, they remain cheap relative to conventional precision munitions. AI-driven swarms pose additional risks. | Science & Technology | |
| 2/10/2024 | The Kremlin has prosecuted 850 Russians and imprisoned 160 for anti-war activities since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 (including even war supporters who have criticized Putin). It tries to pick a few people and give them large sentences to set an example. | Europe | Russia |
| 2/10/2024 | Of 10m Israelis, there are about 500K settlers in the West Bank. Most were lured by cheap housing in urban neighborhoods near the border; but more problematic are the small minority of religious zealots who live deep within the West Bank (and heavily influence Netanyahu). Biden is sanctioning settlers to try to drive a wedge between the settlers and the rest of Israel, leaving Netanyahu with the choice of either dumping his toxic partners or going down with them. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 2/3/2024 | The internet is built on (1) Routers and Cables; (2) Ethernet lines (3) Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol; (4) Application Layer (https). Data in the "cloud" is actually stored (and backed up) in massive data centers (most use magnetic tape but are exploring glass). Improved hardware (eg photonic switches) AI-driven routing, and computing on the edge (computational delivery networks) may help reduce latency and save time, heat, and energy. Tech companies have made noble efforts to make data centers climate neutral but innovations (eg liquid cooling) will struggle to outpace demand. | Science & Technology | |
| 2/3/2024 | The BJP says it wants to protect cows, which are associated with divine beneficence and venerated by Hindus. Yet its pro-cow policies, including bans on cow slaughter, appear to be detrimental to cattle welfare. They are thought to be causing an increase in stray cows, typically male calves and aged milkers which, having little commercial value, are let loose by their owners. Abandoned, they feed on plastic bags and other rubbish, cause car crashes and raid farmers’ crops. | Asia | India |
| 2/3/2024 | Charter schools are free from the bureaucracy of the public-schools system and can hire and fire teachers based on merit. A new study found charter students were 6 days ahead in math and 16 days ahead in reading than their public counterparts. | United States | Education |
| 1/27/2024 | A court struck down Pittsburgh's discriminatory "jock tax," charging visiting athletes 3% (whereas home athletes paid 1%). But jock taxes can continue so long as home and away athletes pay the same. Disgruntled athletes say inter-state remote workers should be treated the same. | United States | Sports |
| 1/27/2024 | Although Japan's space exploration is modest compared to US and China, its successful lunar landing demonstrates its niche strengths in unmanned modules and critical role in helping map the moon's surface. | Asia | Japan |
| 1/27/2024 | The creation of presidential primaries in 1968 ostensibly handed presidential nominee selection from party leaders to voters. But in practice, they accidentally handed it to party activists and a small segment of voters in Iowa/New Hampshire (both of which tend to favor more partisan rather than electable candidates). | United States | Politics |
| 1/27/2024 | Trump won on immigration in 2016, a problem which is now ~4x worse. While Trump's "rapists" rhetoric and child separation policies were reprehensible, many Democrats have responded the opposite extreme. While he has quietly plugged gaps in the wall and rejected more asylum claims, Biden should accept Republican proposals to increase the "credible fear" standard (and provide resources to immigration LE/judges). | United States | Immigration |
| 1/20/2024 | Some 90% of online content could be AI-generated by 2026, and it will be increasingly difficult to identify deep fakes (generation getting better, impossible to regulate watermarks). People will have to learn that images, audio, and video of something do not prove it happened, and evaluate based on their level of trust with the source. | Science & Technology | |
| 1/13/2024 | Ecuador, now the most dangerous country in Latin America, is a major port for cocaine exports. The dissolution of the FARC left a vacuum for gangs sponsored by Mexican cartels and Albanian mafia. The leftist government worsened by closing a US base and eliminating a police unit. | Americas | Ecuador |
| 1/13/2024 | China has now overtaken Japan as the largest exporter of cars. Western policymakers should resist the temptation to levy tariffs for three reasons: EV disruption is coming anyway, cheaper cars means more money for other things, good for the environment. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/6/2024 | In the 1950s Walt Disney drew a diagram of the mutually reinforcing pillars of his business: movies promoted television spin-offs, which fed demand for theme parks, which sold merchandise, which promoted movies, and so on. Today, with cinema lagging, Hollywood is experimenting with live experiences like theater productions (e.g. stranger things), art exhibitions (e.g. Harry Potter), and games (e.g. squid game). | United States | Business & Economics |
| 12/23/2023 | In addition to ramjets and pulse jets, rotating detonation engines show some promise of reviving supersonic air travel. It would have fewer components and be more fuel efficient. | Science & Technology | |
| 12/23/2023 | Creole language and culture derived from the combination of French settlers, Western African slaves, and Spanish (who briefly rules the colony) in Louisiana. It is going extinct thanks to new emphasis on Cajun (which attracts tourists but focuses on whites). | United States | |
| 12/23/2023 | For all the talk of record migration and unprecedented crisis, the share of the world’s people who live outside their country of birth is just 3.6%; it has barely changed since 1960, when it was 3.1%. | Global | Immigration |
| 12/16/2023 | Macau, a former Portuguese colony neighboring Hong Kong, has been an autonomous region of China since 1999. Mainland officials and entrepreneurs often used the city’s casinos as conduits for money-laundering. Xi’s crackdown on corruption is forcing the city to diversify into more family friendly attractions (similar to Las Vegas). | Asia | China |
| 12/16/2023 | Over 15 years, Bangladesh’s PM Sheikh Hasina, has presided over one of the world’s fastest-growing economies and the biggest improvement in living standards in South Asia and skillfully negotiated the rival interests of China and India. At the same time, the 76-year-old prime minister has assailed Bangladeshi democracy with impunity. | Asia | Bangladesh |
| 12/16/2023 | While “mainstream media” does not peddle falsehoods and conspiracy theories, an Economist analysis of over 600,000 pieces of mainstream journalism shows their language has drifted toward the Democratic Party’s preferred terminology, eschewing conservatives. Technology has also enabled fragmentation, diluting the power of old gatekeepers (Tucker Carlson is launching a subscription service). | United States | Politics |
| 12/9/2023 | A recent paper found a surge in short sales on the EIS ETF which tracks an index of Israeli shares five days before October 7th. The authors suspect someone knew of the attack and made millions off it. | Middle East & Africa | Palestine |
| 12/9/2023 | Houthis have fired 100 Iran-provided missiles or drones at ships from 35 countries in the Red Sea to align themselves with the Palestinian cause and drive up the price of oil to put pressure on Israel's allies to rein it in. US warships are well defended but commercial shipping less so. | Middle East & Africa | Yemen |
| 12/2/2023 | The Foley Foundation estimates there are 64 publicly disclosed hostage and wrongful detention cases of Americans overseas, an uptick. China, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, and the Taliban have sought everything from sanctions relief to prisoner exchanges. | United States | |
| 12/2/2023 | America’s plan to pivot to Asia, and focus more on its rivalry with a rising China, has been derailed by war in Ukraine and now Gaza. Russia, too, is distracted and losing influence. Frozen conflicts are thawing and local cold wars are heating up around the world. Instability in the Sahel is rising. The world is preparing for more conflict now that America’s “unipolar moment” has ended. | United States | |
| 11/25/2023 | A severe drought has depleted the freshwater locks required to operate the Panama Canal, drastically reduced the number of ships that can get through each day. | Americas | Panama |
| 11/25/2023 | China's surveillance state is growing, with millions of new cameras each year, a COVID app required to track movement, and ID cards required to sign up for everything from WeChat to Uber. Polling indicates ~70% of Chinese support, but censored news doesn't reveal the full extent of snooping. | Asia | China |
| 11/25/2023 | New countries like Singapore are developing their own investment-screening regimes like CFIUS in the US. Coupled with rising protectionism, international deal-making is getting harder. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/18/2023 | Latin America's most powerful new gang, Tren de Aragua, profits not on trafficking drugs but people. It began by controlling illegal border crossings, but its six-country, 5,000-person network now runs its own smuggling operation--including buses, food, and accomodations (and has branched into sex trade). | Americas | |
| 11/11/2023 | Credit unions--which unlike banks are usually not-for-profit--typically offer generous interest rates and have enjoyed near-continuous growth since 1970s. But facing a liquidity crunch of their own, they've been forced to raise rates. | United States | Business & Economics |
| 11/11/2023 | 11 countries in the Middle East now have ballistic missiles (those which fly in a parabolic arc) or cruise missiles (which use plane-like engines to fly on flatter trajectories) with ranges of more than 250km. Furthermore, non-state actors have drones, rockets, and missiles supplied mostly by Iran. This increases pressure on Israel's Iron Dome and David's Sling systems in a future war. Israel is developing a laser-powered "Iron Beam" system to complement Iron Dome. Although it will save costly interceptors, it will have limited range, be more susceptible to weather or smoke, and take several seconds of contact with incoming rockets. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 11/11/2023 | North Korea is closing over a dozen embassies (about a quarter of their total), likely because they could no longer pay for themselves in smuggling illicit goods and spying (it can also rely on working through Russia and China). | Asia | North Korea |
| 11/11/2023 | Realtor fees in the US are three times those in other rich countries because of the National Association of Realtor's racket by which any MLS listing must match the going fee of 2.5-3% per agent. It discourages transactions and attracts too many people (US has 5x as many realtors as UK per deal), where technology should help eliminate middlemen. | United States | Business & Economics |
| 11/4/2023 | Despite a wave of corporate defaults, China's corporate bankruptcy rate is 0.2%. Corporate bankruptcy requires the consent of courts, creditors, local government, and also a regulator, which all have strong interest in keeping firms alive. But this approach of keeping bad companies of life-support weighs on the economy. | Asia | China |
| 11/4/2023 | Israel has destroyed 10% of Gaza; at least 7,000 people; likely committed war crimes (blockade, civilian targets). 2005 withdrawal let Israel focus on settling West Bank; Netanyahu used Hamas as a tool to block 2SS. IDF is using satellites, ground-penetrating radar, and acoustic detection to find tunnels in Gaza. And sponge-bombs, which expand into a dense hard foam, to block them off. Future governance options: PA rule, Egypt/Israeli-backed administration, Israeli occupation, power vacuum. 2SS would entail territory swaps, division of Jerusalem with joint control of Old City, demilitarized Palestinian state in West Bank and Gaza. Israeli settlers in West Bank have grown from 116K to 465K from Oslo (1993) to 2021--a growing obstacle to peace. Even as Israel cozies to Arab neighbors, the threat from non-state proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis) have grown. | Middle East & Africa | Palestine |
| 11/4/2023 | DC violent crime is up 40% in 2023, while falling ~20% in other major cities. Research suggests deterrence depends on punishment being certain and swift (even moreso than severe). In DC it is neither, due to DFS decreditation, surge of AUSA resources to Capitol Siege, and 12 judge vacancies (even Superior Court requires Presidential appointment). AUSAs declined to prosecute 67% of cases (up from 31% in 2016) while its win rate remains the same. | United States | Policing |
| 11/4/2023 | Despite average pay of $350K/year, the US has a doctor shortage. Partly because baby boomer doctors are retiring (and need care). But it also takes longer to train a doctor in America than most rich countries (4yrs undergrad + 4yrs med school + 3-7yrs residency + any specialist training). Reaction has been increase in doctors of osteopathic medicine (DOs), as well as nurse practitioners and physicians assistants (PAs) taking on responsibilities (e.g. writing prescriptions). | United States | Healthcare |
| 10/28/2023 | In the 1950s, ignorant US officers interpreted the Congo's Patrice Lumumba's anti-imperialism as communism which led Eisenhower to order his assassination. Following a string of failed plots involving injecting poison into his toothpaste and trying to snipe him, Lumumba was ultimately killed by separatists following a CIA-backed coup. | Africa | Congo |
| 10/28/2023 | Following explosions of Nord Stream 1 and 2 (possibly by Ukrainians), a pair of communication cables between Estonia and Sweden/Finland were damaged (US blames Russia). Finland is stepping up undersea sensors/surveillance and blocked three Russian real estate transactions. | Europe | Finland |
| 10/21/2023 | The green transition depends on batteries, now dominated by lithium-ion (refined mostly in China, which just limited export of graphite). Firms are working on sodium-ion batteries, which is heavier but abundant and less environmentally destructive. | Science & Technology | |
| 10/14/2023 | COVID, opioids, and homelessness have prompted many states (including both CA and TX) to expand mental health programs including building more beds for patients suffering from mental illness and drug addiction and expanding involuntary treatment. | United States | Healthcare |
| 10/7/2023 | With unemployment rising and housing prices sky-high, the CCP is using rappers to spread propaganda (eg US military lab started COVID) to its youth league. | Asia | China |
| 10/7/2023 | Mexico's gangs are its fifth largest employer. The country is trying to sue America's gun manufacturers, but can't use the same Connecticut law New Town survivors did. | Americas | Mexico |
| 9/30/2023 | With a focus on cloud computing fattening margin to 43% and big bets on AI copilots, Microsoft may yet reclaim most valuable public company from Apple. It has benefitted from stockholders reigning in founders and timely acquisitions (eg ~49% OpenAI) rather than chasing moonshots. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/30/2023 | Turkey-backed Azerbaijan overran Nagorno-Karabakh, a separatist ethnic Armenian enclave. With its one-time sponsor Russia distracted in Ukraine, Armenia looked to the West but Azerbaijan ignored diplomatic efforts. About 65,000 Armenians fled. | Asia | |
| 9/30/2023 | The EU should seek to expand as many as 9 countries by 2030. Although it should not lower its standards, expansion would increase Europe's geopolitical heft and counter Russian influence. | Europe | |
| 9/23/2023 | Illinois became the first state to abandon cash bail on the premise people should not be held in jail on an "arbitrary amount" whichever often resulted in domestic abusers being released while homeless shoplifters were held. Longer detention hearings, however, may bog down courts. | United States | Policing |
| 9/16/2023 | Russian spies have long viewed the Americas as a good place to build up false identities for deep-cover officers (easy passports, bribery). Although South American counterintelligence is getting better, they don't want to pick a fight with Russia who provides a fifth of Brazil's fertilizer. | Americas | |
| 9/16/2023 | 15 of the EU's 27 member countries now have hard-right parties with at least 20% support in opinion polls. Most are anti-immigrant and anti-climate policies. Italy's Meloni has proven more moderate than expected but a Le Pen vicotry in France would be catastrophic. | Europe | Politics |
| 9/16/2023 | Just 6% of private-sector workers are in unions today, down from about 30% in 1970. Surveys show that nearly 70% of Americans now approve of unions, close to a six-decade high. | United States | Business & Economics |
| 9/9/2023 | While most federal employees are barred from accepting any gift over $20, Supreme Court justices largely self-regulate ethics. While fine for justices to have rich friends, they have a duty to the institution they serve (where trust is at an all-time low). With a messy legislative branch, the court should voluntarily accept new standards. | United States | Politics |
| 9/9/2023 | As investors shift from active traders to index funders, Wall Street firms are shifting to wealth management, which helps clients allocate assets, minimize tax bills, and plan for retirement. The automation of basic advise has allowed support for middle-class clients and this role puts wealth managers in a fiduciary role, which is good for everyone. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/2/2023 | AI models will increase the volume and quality of disinformation in 2024 campaigns, but people are less guillable than people make them out to be and platforms have new tools to fight political-influence operations. | Science & Technology | |
| 9/2/2023 | To offset Russian long-range strike capability and restrictions on using Western weapons inside Russia, Ukraine has developed and procured massive numbers of drones to strike psychological, logistical, and military targets. They are also using a campaign of targeted assassinations to raise internal morale and raise the cost of war crimes. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 9/2/2023 | Thousands of Ukrainian men age 18-60 are trying to avoid military service by registering as students, fleeing the country, or bribing local authorities. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 9/2/2023 | With America's abandonment of agreements, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's nuclear buildup, and disruptive technology, the world is drifting back towards a three-way nuclear arms race. India and Pakistan may also increase their aresenal. | Global | |
| 8/19/2023 | Unlike sharks, humans get only one set of (adult) teeth. Scientists are trying to regenerate enamel with stem cells or synthetic proteins with some promising early results. | Science & Technology | |
| 8/19/2023 | Indonesia is an archetype of conservative--but moderate--Islam. Jokowi has supported efforts to oppose sharia law, monitor civil servants for extremist beliefs, and go after AQ/ISIS. | Asia | Indonesia |
| 8/19/2023 | Fani Willis has used RICO 11 times, including against schoolteachers and street gangs. It allows her to merge solicitations of public officials (Rafensberger), perjury (election claims), influencing witnesses (Giuliani), impersonation of public officials (fake electors), and tampering with equipment (stole data in Coffee County). 8 fake electors already pleaded, and GA's RICO carries a minimum 5-year sentence, which may encourage co-defendants to settle. | United States | Politics |
| 8/19/2023 | Cities can die in multiple ways: (1) Detroit in 1990s where prices drop but cannot attract more people; or (2) NYC/San Francisco now where high housing costs push out regular folks. The writer/actor strikes demonstrate how rising costs in LA threaten its ownership of the entertainment industry. | United States | Housing |
| 8/19/2023 | Feminists are correct that women are physically different than men (shorter/lighter), which is why everything from drugs to airbags are often designed in ways dangerous to women. Sports are no different--women's soccer should use a smaller field/goal and lighter ball. | Science & Technology | |
| 8/12/2023 | Nuclear fusion is shifting from government labs to private companies. A fusion of deuterium and tritium nuclei to create helium, neutrons and a whack of energy succeeded on two occasions (and there is no radioactive waste like fission). But extracting deuterium from water and tritium from lithium is energy intensive itself. | Science & Technology | |
| 8/12/2023 | Uber reported its first ever profit but has still clocked $32B in losses since 2014. Over 60% of its revenue comes from food delivery, but it still trails DoorDash. | ||
| 7/29/2023 | At a secret site near Kiev, Ukraine has been keeping casings of Russian missiles to study and exploit. Some of the hardware even contains the name of the builder, which they have used to name/shame for killing civilians. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 7/29/2023 | Wealthy college applicants tend to benefit from legacy admissions, athletics, and non-academic ratings ("private school polish"). Universities value legacies--not just for donations but for inter-generational ties--but all would benefit from more focus on academic merit. | United States | Education |
| 7/29/2023 | Weather forecasts carve the world into a grid of 3D boxes (at increasingly higher resolutions), each populated with temperature, air pressure, wind speed, etc. The system’s evolution is simulated by grinding through enormous numbers of calculations. AI/ML tools--if fed sufficient data--are likely to expedite improved accuracy. The same amount of data should also be given to study of climate change. | Science & Technology | |
| 7/22/2023 | Writers and actors are on strike over streaming (generous upfront payments, but fewer big payouts/residuals) and AI use of likeness. But their leverage is limited because studios are focused on cutting costs, no longer have strict schedules to keep, and the volume of content means gaps are less obvious. | United States | Business & Economics |
| 7/22/2023 | The thickening of the atmospheric blanket through greenhouse gas emissions, an outpouring of heat from the Pacific, and the random effects of year-on-year variation (El Nino) help explain this summer’s freakishly high temperatures. Other possible factors may be the eruption of a Pacific volcano, increase in sulphur from burning coal, or growth in tropical wetlands whose plants produce methane when they rot. | Science & Technology | |
| 7/22/2023 | El Salvador's President Navib Bukele has arrested 7% of male Salvadoreans aged 14-29 (many based on as little as a tattoo or anonymous tip). The murder rate has plunged and his popularity is over 80%, but the scrapping of due process will encourage him to further consolidate state powers at the expense of democracy. | Americas | El Salvador |
| 7/22/2023 | To fight extreme heat, cities must plant more trees and use green materials/white roofs. Once the temperature rises, move outdoor jobs to morning and get homeless to cooling stations. | Global | |
| 7/15/2023 | The most advanced image-generators typically use a type of generative AI known as a diffusion model. They add distorting visual “noise” to images in the dataset—making them look like an analogue TV still disrupted by static—until the pictures are completely obscured. By learning how to undo the mess, the model can produce an image that is similar to the original. As it becomes better at recognising groups of pixels that correspond to particular visual concepts, it starts to compress, categorise and store this knowledge in a mathematical pocket of code. The quality of image generally depends on the size of the dataset (i.e. more images of faces than hands). | Science & Technology | |
| 7/15/2023 | Globally, workers want 2 full days remote per week, but only get one. FVEY countries do the most; JPN / ROK do the least. It saves an average of 72minutes commuting per day, which workers value equal to an 8% raise, according to one study. A third of jobs went remote during the pandemic, but recent waves of job cuts have handed powers back to employers. | Global | Business & Economics |
| 7/8/2023 | Modern warfare relies on more powerful sensors, more precise munitions, and rapid networks to connect the two. Ukraine shows war is increasingly transparent through ubiquitous sensors; still requires immense manpower/munitions; pulls in civilians, private military contractors, and multinational tech companies. Russia's inventories/antiquated logists and elite forces have been decimated, but they are learning and shown effective EW jamming. 86% of Ukrainian targets are derived from drones, most of which only last 3-6 flights. Google Maps / App allows civilians to share real-time intelligence. But tech isn’t panacea (“Can’t cyber your way across a river”) | Global | Military |
| 7/1/2023 | Remote work leads to happier employees (no commmute, greater flexibility). But a flurry of updated studies find it reduces productivity 18-19%, in addition to disrupting development of human capital and professional networks. Hybrid work is here to stay but the balance is already shifting back in finance and tech. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/1/2023 | Wagner is a network of firms with links to the Russian state that operate under contracts with governments. They work in the military (fighting, training, ~torture), economic (own gold/diamond mines), and/or political (propaganda/disinformation campaigns) spheres in over a dozen African countries (plus Syria). It's not lost on African leaders that the group Putin sells to help them fight internal enemies staged its own uprising in Russia. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 7/1/2023 | Wagner Group's faux-coup not only downed six helicopters but revealed Putin as out of touch and unable to command loyalty. Even weak despots can survive if no alternative is availble, but the war (1000,000 dead/wounded Russians) and economy (running out of steam) are working against him. | Europe | Russia |
| 6/24/2023 | Sweden wants to build an entire city out of wood. It's light, cheap (abundant), green (carbon-absorbant), and can be fireproof (when laminated). | Science & Technology | |
| 6/24/2023 | 34yo FTC chair Lena Khan has set about trustbusting big tech, with suits against Facebook (lost), Google, Amazon, and Microsoft (ongoing). Problem is Biden has not appointed like-minded judges, Khan is viewed as a hard-charging activist by her own employees, and pushing too hard may trigger Supreme Court to circumscribe authorities. | United States | |
| 6/17/2023 | On the strength of its cloud computing (including a deal with TikTok), a surging Oracle stock price has sent Larry Ellison past Jeff Bezos as the world's third richest man. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/17/2023 | Ten years after Sisi took power from Morsi in a coup, he has built two dozen new cities--including a new capital outside Cairo--and hundreds of new railways/bridges. He is also easing religious restrictions and embracing technology. But debt has skyrocketed, investors are nervous, and the currency has fallen 5/6 against the USD. He has also jailed 60,000 political opponents. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 6/10/2023 | Previous reparations (Holocaust, Japanese internment) were for specific horrors, not systematic disparities. Only 30% of Americans support. None alive today can be blamed for slavery; nor are blacks the only disadvantaged group. CA task force proposed $1.2M per descendent of slavery, totaling around $800B. Race-neutral anti-poverty programs would be a more effective way to ease disadvantage. | United States | |
| 6/3/2023 | Japan has the third largest potential for geothermal power but ranks 10th in output, largely due to the hot springs tourism industry. It hopes to triple output by 2030. | Asia | Japan |
| 6/3/2023 | Chinese and Ukrainians paid Hunter Biden millions for easy jobs, and he may face charges on tax evasion and lying about drug use on his application for a gun. But nothing he did benefitted his father; and his influence peddling pales in comparison to the Trumps. | United States | Politics |
| 6/3/2023 | Global fertility rate (2.3 births/woman) has fallen from 2.7 in 2000 and continues to fall. Despite what environmentalists say, the economic risks are profound (supporting pensioners, youthful dynamism). Immigration, pro-family incentives, or unleashing the poor are unlikely to address, but AI-enabled robotics may help. | Global | Other |
| 5/27/2023 | Police resignations have increased 18% year-on-year since 2020 (and recruitment has gotten harder), leaving large metropolitan departments understaffed, meaning officers are stretched thin, letting leads run cold and leading to bad decisions on the streets. Officers need to be paid more, fired more, and trained more (cops average only 20 weeks training). | United States | Policing |
| 5/20/2023 | Though based in Brooklyn, Queens, and Long Island, EDNY’s close relationship with the FBI and reputation for prosecutorial creativity has led it to high profile charges ranging from terrorists to El Chapo to R Kelly to Huawei. | United States | Policing |
| 5/20/2023 | The DOI’s Bureau of Land Management is responsible for granting permits for renewable energy projects, but has been decimated by under-funding, baby boomer retirements, labor shortage, and neglect under President Trump (moved 300 employees from DC to CO and all but 44 quit). | United States | |
| 5/20/2023 | Iran’s regional proxies (Hizbullah in Lebanon, Hamas/PIJ in Palestine, Badr Organization in Iraq, Houthis in Yemen) remain a powerful force but using scant resources to fund them are unpopular at home and its regional status has been raised more by restoration of diplomatic ties with KSA. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 5/13/2023 | Another Civil War in Sudan shows international community efforts to work directly with strongmen is less pragmatic policy and more wishful thinking. Pushing for shared power can actually create zero-sum dynamics ripe for conflaguration. | Africa | Sudan |
| 5/6/2023 | After years of overuse, bacteria have evolved resistant to antibiotics. A promising, if obscure, alternative is the use of bacteriophages: specialized viruses which infect/kill bacteria. Since they are natural organisms pharmaceutical companies may have trouble patenting them, making it hard to recoup any investment. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/6/2023 | Isolating the Taliban has not helped Afghan women or destabilized the regime. The US should press banks to end the informal ban which is throttling Afghanistan’s economy and consider funding UN infrastructure projects. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 5/6/2023 | USAID design/monitor projects, but award ~90% of contracts to DC firms who identify organizations doing work on the ground, then hand out money via layers of subcontracts, grants, and other awards. These “beltway bandits” have legions of lawyers and book-keepers which absorb as much as 32% of funds. | United States | |
| 5/6/2023 | Whereas social media companies competed for our attention, AIs will compete to generate (fake) intimacy. Whereas the printing press/radio merely spread human ideas, AI will create the dreams we live inside. Whereas nukes cannot invent more powerful nukes, AI can make exponentially more powerful AI. We should demand rigorous safety checks before powerful AI tools are released into the public domain (much like the FDA reviews short-term and long-term side-effects for new drugs). | Global | |
| 4/27/2023 | 20% of Americans aged 40-79 take five or more prescriptions each day. More pills makes it more likely they are taken incorrectly or interact harmfully. But funding for de-prescribing studies is scant. | Science & Technology | Healthcare |
| 4/27/2023 | Despite an economy which has shrank by 75% and state pension at just $5/month, Maduro has cemented his power through bullying and corruption; aided by the West's move away from Russian oil and election of leftists in Colombia, Brazil, and Peru. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 4/27/2023 | Russia’s economy can maintain but not expand the war. 75% oligarchs funds unfrozen, China/third parties (e.g. Armenia) helping Russia import, China/India buying up its oil surplus. But has depleted stocks of modern weapons and factories are full-out. | Europe | Russia |
| 4/27/2023 | Providing F-16s to Ukraine would protect air superiority and send a strong message to Putin. Ukraine lost 40% of its fighters; Russia has five times as many. Ground-based defense integration is slow—whereas F-16s are numerous and could be flying by year’s end. Javelins, HIMARS, Abrams, Patriot. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 4/15/2023 | Decriminalizing drug possession can reduce prison numbers and the perils of addiction. However, Oregon’s new policy putting possession on par with a speeding ticket has caused a sharp increase in overdoses. Portugal’s model offers better lessons: Don’t rush, train officers, ensure capacity, encourage early treatment. | Global | Drugs |
| 4/15/2023 | The Palestinian Authority, set up by the 1993 Oslo Accords, has become an undemocratic, ineffectual, corrupt vestige of a moribund peace process. 87-year-old Mahmoud Abbas is in the 19th year of a 4-year term, it fails to provide even basic services (partly because Israel is holding back funding), and 54% of Palestinians now support violence against Israel. | Middle East & Africa | Palestine |
| 4/8/2023 | Cases of gender dysphoria tripled from 2017-21. Gender-affirming care consists of counseling followed by puberty-blocking drugs, opposite-sex hormones, and (sometimes) surgery. There are no shortages of anecdotal successes (believe saved life) and failures (detransitioners). But there is little good (small samples, no control) or strong (weak, contradictory) experimental evidence and none address long-term impacts. More research is needed before treatments become routine. | Global | Other |
| 4/8/2023 | Although 56% of Americans no longer think a college degree is worth the money, studies suggest the salary bump provides a roughly 14% rate of return on investment. Students (and schools) are responding by focusing on computer science and engineering instead of history and literature. | Global | Education |
| 4/8/2023 | While safety-critical machine learning systems are trained on closed data sets monitored by humans, generative AI (e.g. large language models) often scrape from the web, where it is easier to “poison” data to sabotage/influence results. Connecting chatbots directly to the web also risks “indirect prompt injection,” in which the AI is tricked into behaving a certain way by feeding them a prompt hidden on a webpage the system is likely to visit. | Science & Technology | |
| 4/1/2023 | Camoflauge is evolving to trick not just the visual eye, but the full battery of sensors now mounted on drones in Ukraine (thermal, radar, geospectral). | Global | Military |
| 4/1/2023 | London's data-driven efforts to reduce traffic fatalities have been offset by the emergence of eco-friendly but dangerous modes: eScooters and silent EVs. | Europe | UK |
| 4/1/2023 | After the US pulled out of ABM and INF, Russia has now "suspended" New START and deployed tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. Seeking to appear responsible, the US will continue to provide day-to-day notifications of movement of weapons and/or tests. | Global | Military |
| 4/1/2023 | Rice production is highly susceptible to climate change (monsoons and drought), and a larger source of greenhouse gases than any food except beef. Rice is also not particularly nutritious (may contribute to diabetes). Governments should nudge introduction of new technologies for growing and toward corn and bread. | Global | Healthcare |
| 3/25/2023 | Belarus has served as a launching point for Russian troops, missiles, and logistics, but is unlikely to contribute any of its 45K poorly trained troops (Most Belarussians are fond of Ukrainians and only 7% support intervention). | Europe | Belarus |
| 3/25/2023 | TikTok forced rivals to copy their model: Instagram (Reels), Pinterest (Watch), Snapchat (Spotlight), YouTube (Shorts), and even Netflix (Fast Laughs). But the new model is less profitable (TikTok makes $67 annually per user while Instagram makes $200). It's easier to slip ads into news feeds than short-form videos. | Business & Economics | |
| 3/25/2023 | The Ukrainian army established 60 new attack-drone squadrons, at least one in every brigade, with separate staff and commanders--the first of its kind in the world. They've begun some strikes deeper into Russia (St. Petersburg), though Russia's use of Iranian strike drones have been more sophisticated. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 3/18/2023 | Under AUKUS, US will sell up to five Virginia-class subs to Australia in the 2030s, and share technology for Britain and Australia to co-design/builid a next-gen submarine for the 2040s (and the US/UK will deploy subs to Perth). Worries are overblown over proliferation (nuclear powered, not weapons) and arms race (China already started). | Asia | Australia |
| 3/18/2023 | Western sanctions of ~1,400 Russian oligarchs push them closer to Putin because there is no channel to get off the list. Smarter sanctions would offer a legal way off by resigning jobs, denouncing the war, or returning funds. | Europe | Russia |
| 3/18/2023 | Climate hawks and Big Oil both like geothermal energy, in which hot water is pumped from underground reservoirs to create steam, which rotates a turbine. Yet even though America is the world leader in geothermal generation, it accounts for less than 1% of the country’s power production (expensive, permitting problems). | United States | Energy |
| 3/11/2023 | USG thinks Xi ordered PLA to develop the capacity to invade Taiwan by 2027. China would use element of surprise, disguise early moves as exercises, and blanket Taiwan in missiles, opening up a two-day window. It would then conduct a challenging amphibious assault, transport nearly 1M troops across the strait, and conduct urban warfare in Taipei. US planners emphasize “distributed lethality” (scattering and constant movement of forces to avoid becoming easy targets). US ships would hang back, relying on subs and planes. | Asia | Taiwan |
| 3/11/2023 | Test scores may be correlated with privilege, but they are probably the hardest part of an admissions application to warp with money (studies find tutoring has marginal impact on scores; much easier to buy help on coursework or extracurriculars). A better way for Ivy Leagues to fix inequality would be to discontinue legacy admissions. | United States | Education |
| 3/11/2023 | Low fertility rates, low immigration, families leaving cities, and pandemic withdrawals mean pupil numbers are falling in American cities. Budgets will follow, but pathwork school boards and powerful teachers unions will not downsize efficiently. | United States | Education |
| 3/11/2023 | Cremation is now more common than burials, but six states have legalized body composting, in which the body is broken down by microbes over 3 months alongside woodchips, straw, and alfalfa, which create a warm atmosphere of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen and moisture. It is much greener than burial (steel, concrete, embalming fluids) or cremation (carbon emissions). | United States | Other |
| 3/4/2023 | A new Palestinian group called the Lion's Den has no leadership or affiliation with the government, Hamas, or Fatah. Amid escalating violence, their platform is simply to resist the occupation. | Middle East & Africa | Palestine |
| 3/4/2023 | 40% of the globe is overweight or obese, costing billions in medical treatment and lost productivity. Many are in the Third World, caused by genes and a superabundance of cheap convenient processed foods. A new class of injections called GLP-1 receptor agonists reduce weight by 15%+. Governments should provide to those who need the most, allowing those seeking cosmetic improvements to pay out of pocket. | Global | Healthcare |
| 2/25/2023 | New Apple and Google privacy protections had cut into Meta, Twitter, and Snap's ad revenues; causing them to introduce paid tiers. They are fighting back by offering cheaper subscriptions to those who join via the web instead of the app, where apple takes as much as 30%. | Business & Economics | |
| 2/25/2023 | Britain revoked citizenship of Shamima Begum, a Londoner who traveled to Syria in 2015 to join ISIS at age 15. They would do better to bring her home and put her in prison than leave her in a poorly-controlled desert camp. | Europe | UK |
| 2/25/2023 | Despite being unable to feed its people, North Korea helped fund its military by stealing and laundering $1.7B in cryptocurrency in 2022. Western law enforcement and crypto exchanges are getting better at policing themselves. | Asia | North Korea |
| 2/18/2023 | International law forbids shooting down objects (e.g. satellites) above the Kármán Line (328,000ft altitude). Slightly below that can be a gray area, but at 60,000ft China’s balloon was clearly too low to be defensible. | Global | Military |
| 2/18/2023 | At least 15 states are proposing laws making it harder to perform in drag. Most restrict hours or limit public funding, but the most extreme could criminalize Harry Styles concerts or historically accurate Shakespeare performances. Republicans are looking for new culture war issues after abortion, and gain more support by focusing on “protecting children” than anti-adult LGBTQ rhetoric. | United States | Other |
| 2/18/2023 | Following charges for bribery and fraud, Netanyahu has proposed allowing Knesset to limit supreme court jurisdiction, stack justices, and override decisions. This would remove nearly all checks and balances. Israel has no upper house to review legislation or formal constitution, relying instead on a series of “basic laws” passed by the Knesset to be quasi-constitutional. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 2/18/2023 | In 1965, as Britain decolonized the Maldives, it claimed the neighboring Chagos Archipelago and Diego Garcia (on lease to the US military until 2036). Increasing international pressure may convince it to return Chagos to Mauritius, where its original residents were relocated. | Asia | |
| 2/11/2023 | With jamming turned off to not disrupt friendly drones and traditional missile interceptors wildly expensive, the best way to attack the enemy's small UAS is with other quadcopters. Ukrainians are learning to attack from above, since cameras face down and rotors are on top. | Global | Military |
| 2/11/2023 | Russian businesses have diversified supply chains away from the West. And Russian plutocrats have profited off a Russian decree that exiting businesses must sell assets to the government at 50% discount. Nonetheless, with oil prices falling and military spending maxed out, health and education spending will bear the brunt of a war with no end in sight. | Europe | Russia |
| 2/11/2023 | US sanctions traditionally weaponize the ubiquity of the dollar to prevent targets from using it. However the US is increasingly leveraging the Foreign Direct Product Rule (against Huawei, Russian Military, Chinese advanced semiconductors), which attempts to weaponise the ubiquity of American technology. It lets the government claim jurisdiction over almost every chip factory in the world, because almost every one contains hard-to-replace American tools. | United States | Business & Economics |
| 2/11/2023 | Florida effectively banned Critical Race Theory and AP African American studies. Meanwhile, the California university system requires applicants to submit a DEI statement which can be used as an ideological litmus test. America needs institutions that let students examine contradictory arguments, have debates, and choose based on merits--not monocultural incubators of mutually exclusive ideologies. | United States | Education |
| 2/4/2023 | Bats (the only flying mammal) account for 90% of viral transmission (often to a "bridge" animal and then humans). Habitat loss is pushing them closer to humans and climate change is weakening their diets, increasing the risk of new diseases. | Science & Technology | |
| 2/4/2023 | South Korea, the world's 8th largest arms exporter is skirting a law against providing lethal aid by selling weapons to countries giving their arms to Ukraine. | Asia | South Korea |
| 2/4/2023 | As much as $100B was stolen from COVID relief programs--particularly antiquated state Unemployment Insurance programs and small business loans distributed through the Paycheck Protection Program. | United States | Economy |
| 2/4/2023 | 5-10% of police officers account for all excessive force complaints. Holding them accountable is difficult. Punishing officers call into question hundreds of previous arrests, negative publicity, and potential lawsuits. Good officers rarely whistleblow on their own, instead avoiding bad pockets (e.g. Scorpion Unit). | United States | Policing |
| 1/28/2023 | Stress does reduce performance in athletics. Using heartbeat (measured by flushing of skin) as a proxy for stress, researchers found that every extra bpm decreased an archer's score at the 2020 Olympics by 0.004 points. | Global | Sports |
| 1/28/2023 | In the past 20 years, France's obesity rate doubled to 17%. It is still well behind America (40%), Mexico (33%) or Britain (26%). | Global | Healthcare |
| 1/28/2023 | After the Great Recession, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley successfully diversified away from investment banking, which now combines the drawbacks of a regulated activity (capital requirements and red tape) with the vices of a speculative one (volatility and huge payouts to executives). Goldman Sachs, however, abandoned its plan to build a consumer bank, posted its worst returns in a decade, and a subsidiary pled guilty for bribes related to 1MDB. The real action in finance is outside regulated banking, where a new cohort of stars rules, including Blackstone in private markets and BlackRock in index funds. | United States | Business & Economics |
| 1/21/2023 | The 1987 Montreal Protocol succeeded in banning 99% of ozone-damaing chlorofluorocarbons (used in refridgeration and hairspray). While increasing CO2 and methane levels are still causing global warming, the earth's ozone-layer should recover to 1980 levels around 2050. | Global | Climate |
| 1/21/2023 | A Chinese company affiliated with Huawei is building a spaceport in Djibouti, which is close to the equator (giving rockets extra boost) and has a large sea port (although a long way from China). China is looking to grow a space industry to rival the US. | Asia | China |
| 1/21/2023 | Corporeal punishment (beatings) in school is still legal in 19 states, mostly those with an evangelical protestant pedigree. Of 69,000 instances in 2018, 30% were in Mississippi. Students can be put on a "no-paddle list" if they "bruise easily," but many parents forget or don't know. | United States | Education |
| 1/21/2023 | Despite unprecedented spending as a percent of GDP, global healthcare is severely challenged. Populations are aging. Staffing shortages increase wages which drive up cost. COVID lockdowns left people sicker as they cancelled preventative visits. Burnt out staff and COVID protocols (e.g. extra cleaning) sap productivity. | Global | Healthcare |
| 1/14/2023 | Russia is not only creating fake videos (e.g. Zelensky telling his troops to surrender), but exploiting the fact it is difficult to prove real videos are authentic. Apps (eyeWitness, ProofMode, Truepic) are working on "glass-to-glass" technology. They record time/location based on GPS and a unique hash value for the footage and sends to a special server of original content; or use other methods of authentication. | Science & Technology | |
| 1/14/2023 | 1-in-20 partnered people are in a consensual non-monagamous relationship while 1-in-5 have tried it at some point. Polyamorous people now seek tax, healthcare, and immigration benefits conferred to monogamous marriages. | United States | Other |
| 1/7/2023 | SpaceX has launched 3,500 Starlink satellites with plans for up to 40,000. They have provided agile broadband to Ukrainian ground troops (better than DoD's Joint All-Domain C2) and their distributed architecture make them resilient to attack. Risks: Musk is mercurial and Russia/China are scrambling to built their own. | Global | Military |
| 12/24/2022 | Major League Cricket (MLC) will begin in 2023 with pro-teams in Dallas, LA, NYC, SF, Seattle, and DC (plus 26 farm teams). The first cricket match was in Manhattan, but baseball dominated behind the (artificial) story of Abner Doubleday during the Civil War. Nonetheless, cricket is ripe for renaissance in the largest global sports market, with baseball's popularity waning, a more diverse population, wealthy Indian-Americans investing in stadiums, and World Cup hosting duties in 2024. | United States | Sports |
| 12/24/2022 | Whereas Rennaissance Europe favored radial cities (easiest to defend), American cities are famous for their grids, which are efficient to overlay public transit/sewage and simple to navigate. Cars have now popularized windy cul-de-sacs, thought Jane Jacobs has long warned against declining walkability. | Global | Other |
| 12/24/2022 | Zuckerberg and Musk have each learned that content moderation should be kept at arms length from those responsible for boosting adversers. It also cannot be solved with technology, but requires humility and transparency. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/17/2022 | Catalytic converters are a component attached to a vehicle’s underbelly that helps process and control fuel emissions. It includes increasingly valuable metals (e.g. rhodium), resulting in a wave of thefts. States are adding serial numbers and increasing punishment. | United States | Policing |
| 12/17/2022 | Climate change and Putin's war are once again pushing countries toward nuclear power, which accounts for 10% of energy worldwide (25% in the EU). Lessons from France: pursue continuous improvement and maintenance, secure public support, and don't forego renewables. | Global | Energy |
| 12/10/2022 | Indonesia's conservative bill to criminalize sex outside of marriage is a gross invasion of privacy and imperils LGBTQ and indigenous tribes whose marriages lack certification (and women whose husbands may slander them). | Asia | Indonesia |
| 12/10/2022 | Teenage suicide is increasing despite reduced child poverty (clusters among LGBTQ, rural areas). Focus should be on family communication and support, family/community attachments, as well as children’s attachments to school, so they feel safe and connected. | United States | |
| 12/3/2022 | US military recruitment is dropping precipitously. COVID increased obesity and mental illness, marijuana use has increased, job market is booming, and political polarization/botched Afghanistan withdrawal have made the military less popular. | United States | Military |
| 12/3/2022 | Ticketmaster's merger with LiveNation deserves scrutiny. But artists (Springsteen, Swift) are the ones which instruct Ticketmaster to use dynamic pricing. And resellers (e.g. StubHub) are also driving price inflation. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/3/2022 | An oil workers strike in 1978 helped overthrow the shah. But October's strikes were not sufficiently widespread (workers too poor) and heavily policed (threats and arrests). | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 12/3/2022 | Maduro is reestablishing legitimacy: Venezuela's economy has stabilized somewhat since abandoning price controls and accepting the USD in 2019. Ukraine War oil shortages drove the Biden administration to permit Chevron/PDVSA to export to the US (in exchange for negotiations with the opposition). And all South America's main economies are now leftist (friendlier). But don't expect fair elections. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 11/26/2022 | Meta created an AI "Cicero" which--after 40 online games--ranked in the top 10% for the game Diplomacy. Unlike AlphaZero (chess) or AlphaGo (Go), which learn from many repeated games, Cicero had to use natural language processing to negotiate alliances. | Science & Technology | |
| 11/26/2022 | RICO crippled large organized criminal enterprises like la Cosa Nostra and Latin Kings. But criminal kingpins have responded by removing titles and hollowing out the middle ranks, instead outsourcing tasks to thousands of street gangs and crews ("the criminal gig economy"). | United States | Policing |
| 11/26/2022 | Putin's use of propaganda against his own people is beginning to show its limits amidst the disastrous war in Ukraine. Europe should welcome members of Russia's exiled press, which now has about 20% marketshare within Russia. | Europe | Russia |
| 11/19/2022 | Central Ukrainian cities have installed mobile, three-walled concrete bomb shelters near bus stops so pedestrians can take cover during the now-frequent air-raid alerts. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 11/19/2022 | Crypto's future is in question. Total market value, which reached $3T in 2021, has collapsed to $830B. The implosion of Terra-Luna brought down two lending platforms and now FTX exchange. Although the blockchain is designed to be free of regulation, exchanges should be required to back customer deposits with liquid assets and disclose any massive loans to the exchange's own trading arm. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/12/2022 | Humanoid robots (e.g. Tesla's Optimus) are advancing and could go for about $20K, with applications in elderly care. But early leaders like Honda's ASIMO have been cancelled to focus on more practical robotics. | Science & Technology | |
| 11/12/2022 | Allegedly 33 high profile Greeks, including cabinet members and former Prime Minister had their phones hacked with Predator, an Israeli hacking tool similar to Pegasys. The scandal threatens progress made by the New Democracy-led government. | Europe | Greece |
| 11/5/2022 | Tech companies (movers, streamers, creepers) are stuffering from related factors: the limits of network effects (believe that growth begets growth), low barriers to entry for competitors, and reliance on distribution platforms they don't own (e.g. app store). | Business & Economics | |
| 11/5/2022 | The war in Ukraine has proven kamikazee drones and cruise missiles more valuable than Close Air Support (CAS) aircraft. Russia's Air Force has taken a third of its casualties from shootdowns its Su-25 (like A-10), by air defense systems as well as handheld Stinger missiles. | Global | Military |
| 11/5/2022 | Nearly $10B will be spent on campaigning in the 2022 midterm elections, up 144% from 2018. Because state races have become nationalized, candidates advertize outside their state to solicit donations. | United States | Politics |
| 11/5/2022 | The Supreme Court's likely abolition of affirmative action presents an opportunity to rebuild the holistic assessment around class instead of race. Princeton had more students from the top 1% than bottom 60%. Legacy admissions should be scrapped (as CalTech, MIT, Hopkins already have). And even more important is improving early schooling for the needy. | United States | Education |
| 10/29/2022 | The overall US birthrate fell slightly during COVID, driven by fewer foreign-born mothers visiting to have an American-born child. But the rate among US-born, college-educated mothers has actually risen nearly 10% since January 2021 (9 months after lockdowns began), driven by the ability to work from home. | United States | |
| 10/29/2022 | The US had some of the longest COVID school closures and literacy/numeracy rates have fallen to 1990s levels. $190B in education aid is not always spent wisely--going to delaying inevitable downsizing or glitzy facilities rather than extending hours or school years. | United States | Education |
| 10/29/2022 | Bidenomics has admirably sought to counter China and fight climate change, but its stimulus has driven inflation over 8% and its protectionism (e.g. electric cars) may violate WTO rules. He would do better to focus on easing high-skill immigration, reducing permiting rules, and incentivizing investment. | United States | Business & Economics |
| 10/22/2022 | Slumping housing prices (driven by interest rate increases) will not collapse the market like in 2008 because banks are better capitalized and the USG underwrites two-thirds of mortgages. But it will dampen the jobs market (by discouraging moves) reduce consumer spending, and demoralize young workers who already can't afford housing. | Business & Economics | |
| 10/22/2022 | The foundation of the US-KSA alliance remains oil for security, but a new dimension is their efforts to manipulate oil prices to bring Trump (and his human rights agnostic policies) back to power. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 10/15/2022 | The FSB bungled Ukraine by failing to protect invasion plans and overstating Russian networks in Ukraine. It also failed to foil likely Ukrainian attacks on Dugan and the Kerch bridge. Corruption and sycophants permeate the bureaucracies, while tradecraft is sloppy and ever since Skripal western services are working together. | Europe | Russia |
| 10/15/2022 | Marijuana should not be a Schedule I drug; on par with heroin. But the burdgeoning industry currently operates in a grey area and rescheduling (II through V) exposes it to a mountain of new regulations. Thus, most prefer unscheduling it all together. Biden decriminalized (impacts ~6500 but most charges are local), but will likely stop short of full legalization. | United States | Drugs |
| 10/15/2022 | 40 of France's 56 nuclear reactors are over 40 years old. Several are going offline for repairs (corrosion and routine inspection delayed by COVID) just as Europe enters an energy crisis. It is an embarassment for Macron, who had reversed Hollande's efforts to reduce nuclear power after Fukushima. | Europe | France |
| 10/15/2022 | AMLO, once a critic of the military, is placing the National Guard (which replaced federal police in 2019) under the defense ministry and extending the army's role in law and order. While popular, empowering the military risks corruption and weakens elected leaders. | Americas | Mexico |
| 10/15/2022 | NYC has long received immigrants, but previous waves have had friends/family to crash with. Texas' busing system has added 20,000 to the 61,000 homeless population, which by its "right to shelter" law is guaranteed city housing. Mayor Adams has set up 55 hotels as temporary housing, but is burning through his budget and relying on charities to help. | United States | Immigration |
| 10/15/2022 | Targeting cocaine suppliers and punishing users have decidedly failed throughout the Americas (production and overdoeses are increasing). The answer is full legalisation, allowing non-criminals to supply a strictly regulated, highly taxed product (advertising it should be banned). Use would increase, but the product would be safer, the gangs weaker, and addiction could be studied more fully. Although it may seem like a pipe dream, cocoa leaf chewing and tea has long been legal in Peru and Bolivia. | Global | Drugs |
| 10/8/2022 | Nearly all of China's ~50m government functionaries have received CCP training ranging from one week to two years. At one of ~7,000 institutions, subjects may learn anything from Marxist theory to the nitty gritty of public administration. | Asia | China |
| 10/8/2022 | Despite their scandals (eg work with MBS, opioids), management consultancies (namely McKinsey, BCG, and Bain) offer an outsider perspective and subject matter expertise. Their profits are skyrocketing as companies struggle with changes like digitization and ESG. | Business & Economics | |
| 10/1/2022 | To address housing shortages, rather than developing urban city-centers or rural outskirts, planners should focus on low-density suburbs. Despite upfront costs, turning parking lots into walkable shops/apartment buildings pay for themselves through increased property taxes. | United States | |
| 9/24/2022 | Two-year House terms were designed to keep representatives in touch with their constituents, but Congress should amend to four years. Beyond reducing the 30 hours/week members spend fundraising/campaigning, it would incentivize longer time horizons for policy. | United States | Politics |
| 9/24/2022 | The US has about 1.9m civil servants, atop which each administration sprinkles some 4,000 political appointees. Contrary to many candidates' claims, government bureaucracy cannot be run like a business because it is impervious to market forces and has no bottom line. | United States | |
| 9/17/2022 | Top academic journals now rely on peer review, which is proven biased toward known authors with good reputations. In this sytem, Einstein's early papers on relativity may have been rejected. | Science & Technology | |
| 9/17/2022 | In 2017, China launched an initiative to collect the DNA of 5-10% of all men, and is now collecting for most Uighurs and Tibetans (ostensibly for a health program). This is in addition to its cameras and facial recognition software. | Asia | China |
| 9/17/2022 | Biden's Office of Science & Tech Policy is developing a "Change in Natural Asset Wealth" metric to record changes in the US stock of natural resources and assign prices. Alongside GDP, it may help policymakers weigh tradeoffs between growth and sustainability. | United States | Business & Economics |
| 9/17/2022 | Murders are up as much as 60% in US cities since 2019. To repair relationships with communities, departments should redirect efforts from gun recovery stops to clearing murders (witnesses fickle but more video evidence available). Doing this will also require more detectives (Europe has more per capita police). Defund the police is no longer popular; social programs and "violence interruptors" may help complement (not replace) policing. | United States | Policing |
| 9/10/2022 | The legal basis for British succession dates back to William and Mary: the Bill of Rights of 1689 and the Act of Settlement of 1701. Must be descendent of Princess Sophia (William's closest protestant relative) and in communion with the Church of England. Updated 2013 to remove male primogeniture (jump above older sisters) and ban on marriage to Catholics. | Europe | UK |
| 9/10/2022 | Promising initial results suggest Novavax may have finally created an effective vaccine for malaria, which killed 640,000 people in 2020 (mostly African children under five). | Science & Technology | |
| 9/10/2022 | Wastewater surveillance is a cost effective tool to monitor for mutations of COVID, monkeypox, typhoid and shigella. Regulations are also warranted to keep focused on public health rather than law enforcement. | Science & Technology | |
| 9/10/2022 | The US Dollar is at its highest value in a basket of global currencies in 20 years. It will help bring down inflation and solidifies its position as the global reserve currency. But state-run digital currency (e.g. China's e-yuan) and payment systems (e.g. India's UPI) are gaining traction. And beyond crypto bubbles, decentralized finance tehnologies continue to improve (e.g. Ethereum update). | Business & Economics | |
| 9/3/2022 | Mines can be triggered by magnetic hulls or acoustic signatures; and modern ones can move around. They are hunted by airborne laser (if near surface) or acoustic sensors (if on seabed), and swept using a cutting cable bearing explosive charges. The USN increasingly uses UUVs, but still employs trained dolphins ("Mk 7 Marine Mammal System") | Global | Military |
| 9/3/2022 | Affirmative-consent (“only yes is yes”) laws are making a difference in over a dozen European countries. Easier for victims to prove they could not consent (shock or drink) than they were physically incapable of resistance. Will also encourage victims to report rapes to police, which makes them more likely to get counselling and recover. | Global | |
| 9/3/2022 | New York City, which has the worst traffic in America, badly needs a congestion zone with variable fees. Opponents fear double charges, pushing traffic elsewhere, and public transit deserts. | United States | Other |
| 9/3/2022 | Extreme heat kills more Americans than hurricanes, tornadoes and floods. Cities need to raise awareness, plant drought-tolerant trees, reduce concrete/asphalt, and require white “cool roofs” which reflect sun. | United States | Climate |
| 8/27/2022 | NASA’s Artemis program, named for Apollo’s twin sister, may get Americans to lunar orbit in 2024 and moon’s surface in 2025. Alabama congressmen mandate it use ULA’s over-cost and behind-schedule SLS rocket, even though it lags SpaceX’s reliable Falcon Heavy rockets (deliver to the ISS) and Starship (designed eventually for Mars). | United States | Science & Technology |
| 8/27/2022 | Feeble and 86 years old, Mahmoud Abbas spends little time in Palestine—let alone governing. His term technically ended in 2009 but he has not molded a successor; popular discontent with the Palestinian Authority is growing. | Middle East & Africa | Palestine |
| 8/20/2022 | Despite currency freezes, oil embargos, export restrictions, and klepto-capture, Russia has a stable financial system, $265B current account surplus, and slates of new suppliers. Sanctions fail because of time lag, retaliation, and substitutes (China, India, UAE). | Global | |
| 8/20/2022 | Efforts to change constitutions are usually to empower a strongman or pack it with “social rights.” Inserting politics of the day or changing it too often (Chile has 60 times since 1980), weakens respect for it. | Global | |
| 8/20/2022 | E-commerce firms initially offered free returns to win buy-in, but consumers now expect it. Processing returns is expensive and time-consuming (less than 5% of returned goods are immediately resold). Firms are experimenting with using VR to try on before purchase and AI to process returns. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/13/2022 | High oil prices and the election of leftists in Colombia, Peru, and Chile have secured Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, even as a fifth of the population has left since 2014. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 8/13/2022 | Australian PM Scott Morrison secretly appointed himself co-minister of health, finance, home affairs, and treasurer early in the pandemic. Few of his ministers even realized they were job sharing. Apparently legal, reform against this centralization is warranted. | Asia | Australia |
| 8/13/2022 | Armies are putting more thought and training into urban warfare as troop numbers decline and cities grow. Weapons—even if precise—are of limited use when the enemy is concealed and surrounded by civilians. Israelis have used explosives to blow through walls in the West Bank, surprising and disrupting combatant defenses. Although frequently used against protestors, tear gas is largely illegal in war. | Global | Military |
| 8/13/2022 | London cemeteries are re-selling burial plots at discounted rates (~$10,000) in instances where the original occupant died at least 75 years prior. 78% of Britons now choose cremation. | Europe | UK |
| 7/30/2022 | MBS colorful anecdotes: yacht has a driving range, partied with 150 models in Maldives, locked minister in toilet for 10 hours, rumors of second wife and drug use. He has said he wants to be the world's first trillionaire. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 7/30/2022 | Israel coordinated strikes with Russia in Syria and remained firmly neutral on Ukraine, however relations appear to be souring. Russia shot at an Israeli jet, expelled a Jewish agency, while Israel denounced war crimes and have dragged their feet in setting up meetings. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 7/30/2022 | In the Middle East, 26% of women are obese versus 16% of men (largest regional disparity). Due to fact that women tend to stay home, wardrobes make public exercise difficult, heavy bread diet, and rotundity is viewed as more attractive. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 7/30/2022 | Despite the furor, the estimated population of illegal immigrants in the US has fallen from 12m in 2007 to 10m in 2020 (Trump policies, COVID). The restaurant and accomodations industries are facing acute labor shortages. Should consider matching workers with employers before immigrating and elminating job-specific visa caps. High-skill migration is also hampered by absurd visa wait times. | United States | Immigration |
| 7/23/2022 | ESG rating agencies use wildly inconsistent ratings and produce wide-ranging scores (Tesla proves E, S, & G often contradict each other; once evil, the defense industry is now defending democracy in Ukraine). ESG asset managers charge higher fees and market misleading claims about their long-term performance. It also distracts policymakers from more impactful policies. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/23/2022 | Not only is the earth getting hotter, but population is growing fastest in the hottest places so that a rising share of the population is exposed to extreme heat. | Global | Climate |
| 7/23/2022 | City public transit survived the pandemic on bailout funding (for many systems, fares comprise a small source of funding). Nonetheless, DC Metro ridership is a third of where it was in 2019 (and not helped by staffing shortages, mechanical issues, and crime). New federal infrastructure funding will help but many passengers may have left for good. | United States | Business & Economics |
| 7/16/2022 | The JWST sits in Lagrange 2, a gravity well where the shield can block the Earth and Sun's illumination to keep its four detectors chilled: MIRI (which detects long infrared wavelengths), NIRCam and NIRSpec (which take images of and analyse short-wave infrared) and FGS/NIRISS (which studies bright targets such as nearby stars orbited by exoplanets). | Science & Technology | |
| 7/16/2022 | Critical Race Theory (CRT) is a 1970s legal theory emphasizing "structural" racism, but has been weaponized by the left and right. Rather than focusing on getting kids back in school, San Francisco fretted about renaming schools named for Lincoln. But CRT has hardly permeated schools; textbooks still emphasize the accomplishments of white men. | United States | Education |
| 7/16/2022 | Requiring priests to be celibate disqualifies many pious members, while attracting paedophiles. An estimated 1-3% of adult men have urges to abuse children; but perhaps 6-9% of priests. The rule originated partly for financial reasons--priests without families leave their assets to the church (ostensibly because Jesus was celibate). | Global | Religion |
| 7/9/2022 | The MAGA movement is institutionalizing itself in DC through new think tanks (America First Policy Institute, Centre for Renewing America), journals (First Things, American Conservative), and networks (American Movement, National Conservatism Conference). | United States | Politics |
| 7/9/2022 | COVID school closures have stalled progress in global education, which combats nearly every problem facing humanity. Better educated people can develop vaccines, design cities, and identify new energy sources. Bookish populations are more productive. | Global | Other |
| 7/2/2022 | In October 2023, Scotland will hold its first independence referendum since 2014 (in which 55% voted against). No matter the outcome, UK law and courts hold the union is a matter reserved for the Westminster Parliament alone. | Europe | UK |
| 7/2/2022 | Famed guerrilla Ahmad Shah Massoud used the Panjshir valley, 90 minutes north of Kabul, to resist the Soviets (1980s) and the Taliban (1990s). AQ assassinated Massoud two days before 9/11, but his deputies fought alongside the Americans and received plum government jobs. The Taliban "captured" the Valley quickly in 2021, but Massoud's son's National Resistance Front are launching near daily attacks. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 7/2/2022 | Calderon's war on drugs killed kingpins, but leaderless cartels splintered, generating more violence. AMLO's "hugs not drugs" has created impunity. Mexico now has over 100,000 missing people (inlcuding many young girls) because cartels leave victims in unmarked desert graves and they are barely investigated due to corruption and resource constraints. | Americas | Mexico |
| 6/25/2022 | 20% of US power comes from nuclear, making it the largest carbon-free source. Climate change and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have spurred calls for domestic uranium mining in the Rockies, though it remains unpopular and would disrupt Native American reservations. Nuclear reactors in UK and US have taken 20+ years and run well over budget (Russia/China designs quicker but maybe not safer). Finland nearly completed two permanent underground nuclear waste facility. | Global | Energy |
| 6/25/2022 | Sexual orientation tends to be innate and fixed, while gender identity can be nebulous and changeable. Thus, people with gender dysphoria should receive therapy before being given puberty blocking drugs (which may cause sterility). | Other | |
| 6/25/2022 | Big Tech is trying to disrupt the healthcare market, which makes up 17% of US GDP (10% in other rich countries). Google is targeting, wearables (FitBit, Pixel Watch), records (Care Studio), and AI (DeepMind diagnostic tools). | Business & Economics | |
| 6/18/2022 | As Tesla comes to dominate the automobile industry, other carmakers are trying to electrify, computerise and vertically integrate their supply chains (negotiating directly with mines). | Business & Economics | |
| 6/18/2022 | While China protests the US seeks a Pacific NATO, it operates a "networked security architecture": FVEY share intel, AUKUS developing nuclear submarines, and the Quad (US, JPN, AUS, India) discuss everything from vaccines to maritime security. | Asia | China |
| 6/18/2022 | Trump's maximum pressure campaign on Iran accomplished nothing. Biden came close to a "longer and stronger" deal in Spring 2022 but ultimately refused to remove IRGC as a terrorist organization. Meanwhile after ignoring MBS, Biden will now travel to MBS begging for oil. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 6/18/2022 | Western leaders have launched a fresh push to wean India off Russian weaponry. The share of Russian weapons it imports fell from around 70% in early 2010s to 50%. As Modi seeks to develop soverign capabilities joint ventures like LMT-Tata (F16 wings) look most promising. | Asia | India |
| 6/18/2022 | It would take at least a decade of painful reforms for Ukraine to join the EU (Turkey began trying in 1987, before sliding toward autocracy). But the EU should unanimously declare Ukraine a candidate for membership (joining Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania) as a symbollic gesture recognizing its sovereignty. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 6/11/2022 | Bahrain has increased its land area 11% by reclaming ocean area and unveiled plans to double in size (Dubai dredged palm tree shaped islands). These projects are expensive, bad for fish populations, and won't survive rising oceans. | Middle East & Africa | Bahrain |
| 6/11/2022 | Israel had traditionally only targeted nuclear scientists inside Iran, but now is openly targeting IRGC leaders and drone-making factories. PM Bennett hopes outspending sanction-ridden Iran on defense will drive Iran into bankruptcy may force it back to the negotiating table. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 6/11/2022 | The US and China used to be able to work together to prevent a nuclear ICBM-armed North Korea, but China recently vetoed a UN resolution and accuses the US of letting the problem persist in the hopes of strengthening its alliance with ROK and JPN. | Asia | North Korea |
| 6/11/2022 | Some advocate permanently seizing Russian oligarchs' property and using them to help rebuild Ukraine. But this would be legally dubious (we're not in direct war) and strategically misguided (won't impact Russian military and sets dangerous precedent) | Europe | Russia |
| 6/4/2022 | Sheryl Sandberg was a digital ad guru who made Facebook profitable. Her exit from Facebook coincides with a shift away from the platform (fewer kids signing up, Apple enhancing privacy, lawmakers placing blame) to the metaverse (pledging $10B investments by 2024). | Business & Economics | |
| 6/4/2022 | With the war shifted from close-in battles around cities to artillery duels in the open Donbas, the US, Germany, and Britain are providing High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to Ukraine, which triple the range of Howitzers and include GPS-guided missiles. Russian firepower has been overwhelming but HIMARS is on wheels and can “shoot and scoot” more quickly. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 6/4/2022 | Chinese intelligence has mastered economic espionage, but its political culture hampers analysis and it tends to recruit peripheral figures with poor tradecraft. While some may be encouraged by China’s fumbling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, making decisions on poor intelligence could be dangerous in a standoff with Taiwan. | Asia | China |
| 6/4/2022 | Even before the most recent inflation, US food prices were rising faster than other rich countries (rose 11% from 2021 to 2022). Americans have gotten used to baggers and name brands, and a more diversified competitive landscape reduces grocery stores' bargaining power with suppliers. Aldi (which now owns Trader Joe's) is looking to disrupt. | United States | Business & Economics |
| 5/27/2022 | UAE President KBZ died making his half-brother MBZ officially President (MBZ was crown prince of Abu Dhabi but acted as de facto ruler since KBZ's 2014 stroke). Though Dubai has the largest chunk of the emirates’ 10m people, Abu Dhabi has the power (almost all its oil and gas reserves and 87% of its land). | Middle East & Africa | United Arab Emirates |
| 5/27/2022 | Migrants at the southern border are increasingly diverse (e.g. Haitians, Ukrainians) and families rather than single people seeking employment. In the absence of decisions from Congress, courts are increasingly setting immigration law ad hoc. | United States | Immigration |
| 5/27/2022 | America has more guns than people. Guns now kill more young people than cars. Every owner should be 21, pass stringent background checks, the process should be slow, and there should be limits on automatic / large magazines. These measures won't end mass shootings but surely help reduce gun deaths. | United States | Guns |
| 5/21/2022 | Carbon-based graphene was isolated in 2004 as the thinnest known material. Lightweight and 200 times stronger than steel, it could increase the strength of concrete during mixing, which would reduce the amount of concrete needed and thus CO2 emissions by as much as 30%. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/21/2022 | When the federal legislature works, it establishes a legal floor of rights and obligations that states cannot fall below, but can choose to exceed. On abortion, climate change and immigration, however, it is failing, causing balkanised states and courts wading into the vacuum, creating confusion and uncertainty. | United States | |
| 5/14/2022 | California legalized medical marijuana in 1996 and recreational cannabis in 2016, becoming the largest legal market. But falling prices and a cultivation tax have made it hard to make a profit, pushing most business underground. | United States | Drugs |
| 5/14/2022 | Exonerations (overturned convictions have reached nearly 200 per year), largely due to advocacy groups like the Innocence Project and Conviction Integrity Units within prosecutors' offices. | United States | Policing |
| 5/14/2022 | LA and Mumbai are the only two cities where big coats roam within limits. LA's mountain lions have plenty of deer, but Route 101 cuts off access to the broader population resulting in genetic degradation. As a result, the city is starting to add bridges. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/14/2022 | Twenty years after the first human genome was mapped, the price of whole-genome sequencing has fallen to a point where it could, be offered routinely to newborns. It could offer early diagnosis, early treatment, reveal best drugs, and be a boon for medical research. But it could also generate false alarms and privacy concerns. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/14/2022 | Surveillance of employees has doubled since the pandemic and exptected to be 70% within three years. While useful for compliance, INFOSEC, and assessing productivity--it poses privacy risks and untested AI can product discriminatory results. New laws should ensure employees are fully informed. | Business & Economics | |
| 5/7/2022 | Wide Area Motion Imagry (WAMI) was first used in Iraq to identify roadside bombers. But the sensors are improving/shrinking and analysis aided by machine learning. This is unveiling civilian applications for police, fire, and search/rescue. Baltimore PD tested it in 2016 and 2020 but had to delete their data for filming a protest. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/7/2022 | Amidst Russian false flag efforts in Moldova, the pro-West President is trying to joint the EU, but it will take years (the small Moldovan civil service is working through intiial questionnairs thousands of questions long). | Europe | Moldova |
| 5/7/2022 | This is the first 6-3 Supreme Court since the 1970s (and half its majority was appointed by a President who lost the popular vote). If it continues to push America right (often through its shadow docket), it will lose legitimacy as a neutral branch of government (approval has already fallen from 60% to 40%). It should leave activism to policians, instate term limits, and enact a code of ethics. | United States | Politics |
| 5/7/2022 | Most Americans think early abortion is less cruel than exposing an unwanted baby to the elements. A quarter of women seek an abortion in their life (although women are twice as likely as men to oppose it). Alito's draft ruling would prevent abortion even in cases of rape or incest. | United States | Abortion |
| 4/30/2022 | Musk’s stated intentions for Twitter: publish recommendation algorithms, authenticate all users to fight bots, and rely on subscriptions over advertising. He is likely to rely on automation for content moderation and favor “timeouts” over bans. His antics may clash with the company culture, and controversy/scuffles with regulators may cost Twitter users. He will also face conflicts of interest as Tesla seeks to penetrate the Chinese market. | Business & Economics | |
| 4/30/2022 | The Secret Service reckons $100B of the $2.2T (4.5%) doled out in CARES act went to criminals. Other countries are likely higher (Italy gave $63,000 directly to the mafia which had filed a request under a fake company). | United States | |
| 4/30/2022 | After celebrating the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan, Pakistan is fuming over its tacit support for the TTP, insurgents who want to overthrow the Pakistani government and impose sharia law. Pakistan has begun air strikes along the border. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 4/30/2022 | Europe should levy a high tariff on Russian oil, which could effectively seize some of Russia's oil profits without reducing supply (Russia would likely have to drop its prices to stay competitive; redirecting all its oil elsewhere would be an enormous logistical challenge). | Europe | |
| 4/23/2022 | More clinics are using ketamine injections to treat depression, if antidepressants and counseling prove ineffective. Patients usually receive 4-6 injections over two weeks, then as needed (each one costs $449, though the VA now covers). They spend 2-4 hours in a dreamlike state under close supervision of a nurse or paramedic. Initial results are encouraging, though long-term effects are unknown. | United States | Healthcare |
| 4/23/2022 | The US currently bans imports of Venezuelan oil and has a $15M bounty on Maduro’s head. Yet US officials reportedly held a “respectful” meeting three days before banning imports from Russia. Venezuela, which doubled oil production last year, could cover the US gap and produces better oil for America’s refineries (KSA’s is runny). A détente would also seek to block out Russia, which has sold Venezuela $9B in arms and mercenaries. Venezuela is worried about Russia competing on oil prices and extracting money from Russia amidst sanctions. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 4/23/2022 | Jordan’s strategic importance is dwindling as more Arab states normalize ties with Israel. Aid from the Gulf—once a primary source of revenue given its lack of natural resources—is falling and the economy is bankrupt. Amidst this, King Abdullah imprisoned his half-brother Hamzah for a coup last year. A succession struggle between Hamzah, with his Bedouin accent, and Crown Prince Hussein, whose mother is Palestinian, could dangerously widen the kingdom’s old cleavage between the indigenous Bedouin and Jordanians of Palestinian descent who are now more numerous. | Middle East & Africa | Jordan |
| 4/23/2022 | Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs, or "granny flats") are cottages built on the same plot as a single-family home. Places like California are making the permitting process easier, which may help address urban housing shortages. | United States | |
| 4/23/2022 | Britain signed an MOU to pay Rwanda in exchange for accepting asylum seekers who cross the English Channel (no matter where they came from). This is harsher than Australia's island PNG detention centers or Trump's "send them back" efforts, and could set a precendent for other rich countries to offload refugees elsewhere. | Europe | United Kingdom |
| 4/16/2022 | Pakistan's army has ruled directly about half the country's history and played kingmakers the other half. The "milstablishment" views themselves as stabilizers but actually make the country ungovernable. Their break with Imran Khan brings Nawaz Sharif's younger brother Shehbaz into power. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 4/16/2022 | A fifth extension of the moratorium on student loan payments has cost the government $100B and is not particularly progressive (helps grad students the most). An alterntive might be to grant relief based on debt-to-income ratios. | United States | |
| 4/16/2022 | The IRS processing backlog increased 20x during the pandemic, but it also played a critical role in delivering support to Americans. As it suffers from attrition and antiquated IT, it deserves more funding. | United States | |
| 4/9/2022 | New Jersey may abandon its popular 1949 law requiring station attendants to pump gas (stations are paying $17/hr and still being forced to close due to labor shortages). | Business & Economics | |
| 4/9/2022 | Although more than half the workers who exited the workforce during the pandemic have returned, wages continue to rise, likely due to inflation. The Fed is correctly raising interest rates to cool price and wage growth, but a recession in the next two years is likely. | Business & Economics | |
| 4/2/2022 | A series of lawsuits are forcing Google and Apple to slash their cut of app store sales from 30% to around 4%. Apple is fighting tooth-and-nail to prevent "sideloading" (apps directly from the web) | Business & Economics | |
| 4/2/2022 | California may build a desalination plant in Huntington to complement the existing one in Carlsbad. While useful, conservation is preferrable (desalination is expensive and used inefficiently--combined in plumbing with treated water from the Colorado River). | Other | Climate |
| 4/2/2022 | The United Kingdom isn't feeling very united. Northern Ireland opposes Brexit protocols, Scotland wants a new independence referendum, and polls say even a third of Welch support independence. | Europe | United Kingdom |
| 3/26/2022 | About 75% of Ukraine remains online, for several reasons: it has many ISPs (fewer choke points), West provided Ukraine "cyber aid" in recent years, and Russian forces are relying on Ukrainian networks to communicate. Signal repeaters, shortwave radios, and SpaceX Starlink terminals are also helping. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 3/26/2022 | Business travelers make up 30% of airline revenues, but are expected to drop by 20% even after the pandemic (airlines are currently running around two-thirds their pre-COVID capacity). Climate-conscious airlines are also reducing first-class seats on their planes. | Business & Economics | |
| 3/19/2022 | Drug-discovery software like MegaSyn, use AI to predict how different combinations of molecules could attack drugs. But researchers found the same AI could also be tweaked to design more lethal chemical weapons. | Science & Technology | |
| 3/19/2022 | Russia and Ukraine together supply 26% of the world’s exports of wheat, 16% of corn, 30% of barley and about 80% of sunflower oil and sunflower-seed meal. Ukraine provides about half the world’s neon, used to etch microchips. Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer, second-largest producer of gas and top exporter of nickel, used in car batteries, and palladium, used in car-exhaust systems, not to mention a large exporter of aluminium and iron. | Europe | Russia |
| 3/19/2022 | Transgender athletes force sports to choose between inclusion and fairness. Because humans cannot change their sex (only their self-identified gender), they should almost always prioritize fairness. | Other | Sports |
| 3/12/2022 | BBC resumed shortwave radio broadcasts in Ukraine because it can travel thousands of kilometers and is harder to stop than ground-based internet. Elon Musk also delivered Starlink internet satellite dishes which can be powered by a car's cigarette lighter. Ukrainian breweries are mass-producing molotov cocktails, repurposing Russian-made RPG-7s, and configuring hand grenades for use with quadcopter drones. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 3/12/2022 | Sanctions will have major impacts on the airline industry. Some carriers have already added surcharges for fuel prices. Russia is a leading provider of titanium, nickel, and palladium. Half of Russia's planes are leased by international companies, but will be difficult to repossess given the closure of Russian airspace. | Business & Economics | |
| 3/12/2022 | Body cameras are starting to be used by retail employees who are harassed and threatened (often over mask mandates). Some have privacy conerns, and they are expensive ($260-1,050 each). | Europe | UK |
| 3/12/2022 | Although its invasion of Ukraine is widely condemned, many states are hedging their bets. India has historic ties to USSR, buys Russian weapons, and is still bitter about US withdrawal from Afghanistan. China is a strategic and increasingly critical ally of Putin. Many African dictators depend on Russian arms and Wagner Group. KSA is keen to protect OPEC+. | Global | |
| 3/5/2022 | In violation of the Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations, Chinese intelligence officers detained and interrogated a Japanese diplomat for two hours | Asia | China |
| 3/5/2022 | Since 2017, the center of terrorism is shifting from the Middle East to the Sahel. Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin in Mali is the fastest-growing terrorist group in the world. | Global | |
| 3/5/2022 | Pausing the gas tax is bad policy. Would not significantly reduce prices for drivers (increased demand cancels out); cause fiscal drain; and is poor incentive for fighting climate change. | United States | Economy |
| 3/5/2022 | Sanctions on Russia are the most far-reaching ever: -forbid transactions with Russian banks, SWIFT -freeze access to assets outside Russia -new export controls on components for military/high tech sector + a number of companies are divesting (BP) and/or leaving (Nike) Risks: Sanctions disproportionately hurt citizens (work to autocrats' favor), rising costs for corporate compliance, will push Russia to make yuan backup currency | Europe | Russia |
| 2/27/2022 | Biden’s $1.9T American Rescue Plan Act has flooded state governments with more money than they know how to spend. Unfortunately, rather than spending it on upgrading computer systems or cleaning up pollution, many (even Republicans) are trying to win political points with unsustainable tax cuts and social programs. | United States | Economy |
| 2/27/2022 | While most states have a minimum age of 18 for marriage, most also have exceptions for parental consent or county clerk approval. From 2000-2018, at least 60,000 minors under their state’s age of consent were married. | United States | |
| 2/27/2022 | Russia has tried to move away from USD since 2014 (trade with China in USD has fallen from 97% to 33%), but US and Western sanctions will still bite. Western banks have relatively low exposure to Russia but gas prices will worsen inflation. A longer term impact could be to accelerate the division into economic blocs. | Europe | Russia |
| 2/27/2022 | 60% of lithium comes from brine pumped from underground into evaporation ponds where it is concentrated and reacted to precipitate lithium carbonate (a two year process). A new company, EnergyX, hopes to use a polymer reaction to extract more Lithium more quickly. | Science & Technology | |
| 2/20/2022 | Courts agreed Merck should be granted a $1.4B property insurance claim following the 2017 NOTPETYA attack which destroyed 40,000 computers (insurer argued fell under "war exclusion" clause). But as cyber incidents against private companies increase, insurance premiums will jump. | Business & Economics | |
| 2/20/2022 | Putin, who views the internet as a "CIA Project" and envies China's "Great Firewall," is trying to secure it against external threats and internal opposition. VK (ersatz Facebook) was taken over by two Gazprom subsidiaries, Google is being fined, ISPs are required to block Tor, and other western apps are being replaced by indigenous alternatives. | Europe | Russia |
| 2/20/2022 | France withdrew its 2,400 troops from Mali after nine years over a breakdown in negotations with the military junta that overthrew Mali's elected government in 2020 (they also hired Wagner Group instead). Despite tactical successes, jihadists remain strong. | Middle East & Africa | Mali |
| 2/20/2022 | China submitted its application to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which Japan salvaged from the ashes of the TTP. While many are skeptical of its motives, it will probably get in eventually (ironic, given the TTP was designed to counterbalance China). | Asia | Trade |
| 2/20/2022 | Pope Francis has become popular in the US by preaching pastoralism (responding to the needs of congregants as they arise) over righteousness/advocacy. He abhors inequality and environmental damage over abortion. | United States | Religion |
| 2/13/2022 | ESG funds help investors feel good, but are not causing major energy companies (e.g. Shell) to close their oil plants/coal mines. Rather, many of these assets are being sold to private equity funds which downplay the holdings making progress harder to track. | Global | Climate |
| 2/13/2022 | Banks are better capitalized and hold fewer risky assets than in 2008. But more assets are now held by pension funds, insurers, and alternative asset managers. And the technology-enabled ease of transactions adds to volatility. Today, 53% of American families own stocks (up from 37% in 1992). Fed stability measures will be inhibited by the need to quell inflation. | Business & Economics | |
| 2/5/2022 | A study of COVID-related pre-prints (pre-peer reviewed findings) found them 80-90% accurate. This supports "open science" and that expensive, slow scientific journals add little value. | Science & Technology | |
| 2/5/2022 | COVID vaccines are injected because the mRNA would be destroyed by stomach acids, but scientists are working on a large gelatin pill which could inject the mRNA into the stomach. | Science & Technology | |
| 2/5/2022 | North Korea has dropped the bellicose public rhetoric but increased the amount of missile testing (including intermediate range missiles and supposed hypersonic). Kim wants to build domestic support amidst famine and persuade other countries to simply accept his testing. | Asia | North Korea |
| 2/5/2022 | COVID exacerbated 2020 census findings that birth rate and net migration are both down (it also killed over 1m Americans). The good news is it continues to diversify and attract the best and brightest from Asia. | United States | Immigration |
| 1/29/2022 | Cryptocurrencies and NFTs (which use clever cryptography to prove, with no need for central authentication, that a buyer owns a unique piece of digital property) are the foundation of a decentralized internet dubbed "Web3." Disruptions hopefuls are proliferating but will be limited by lock-in/inertia and the complexity of blockchain's technology. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/29/2022 | To detect enemy submarines, the US relies on fixed hydrophone arrays tethered to the seafloor in choke points, and towed arrays to track. Fortunately for the US, its cables are relatively safe in the deep North Atlantic, whereas cables in the South China Sea are frequently cut by fishing boats. As sensors advance, it could threaten the survivability of SSBNs. | United States | Military |
| 1/29/2022 | Trump's 2018 sanctions/export blacklists have clobbered Hauwei, but by acting unilaterally it lost control of semi-conductor supply chains, as many investors in Japan and elsewhere now produce them outside of US regulations. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/29/2022 | In 1991, Kazaks made up only 40% of Kazakhstan (Stalin purged them and banished other ethnicities there). In 2021, it's up to 90% (driven largely by a program to attract Kazaks back). | Asia | Kazakhstan |
| 1/22/2022 | The CCP is shifting from censoring to co-producing propaganda movies. A quota system allows up to 34 American movies in Chinese theaters, but only 19 were approved in 2021 (Marvel's Sang-chi was banned because nationalist trolls dug up anti-China remarks by the film’s Chinese-born star, Simu Liu). | Asia | China |
| 1/22/2022 | For the first time since 1948, many Arab countries (e.g. KSA, UAE) are welcoming Jews, building state-funded synagogues and kosher restaurants. Israel-Palestine is no longer a recent memory or priority, and modernizing autocrats begrudgingly look at Israel as a model for running a country that feeds itself without oil. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 1/22/2022 | Divorced families are increasingly "birdnesting," where the kids stay in one home and the parents alternate. Children who spend at least 35% of their time with each parent do better emotionally. | Global | |
| 1/22/2022 | Putting LED lights on fishing nets can discourage dangerous and endangered species like sharks and rays without impacting regular hauls. | Science & Technology | |
| 1/15/2022 | Kazakhstan produces 40% of the global uranium supply, extracted by pumping acid into the ground to dissolve the ore, recovering the solution, and extracting the "yellowcake." China and France are the largest customers, but developing countries are also looking nuclear. | Global | Energy |
| 1/15/2022 | Russia, already the largest arms supplier to sub-Saharan Africa, is deploying small bands of mercenaries (e.g. Wagner Group) to prop up wobbly authoritarian governments frustrated with the West. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 1/15/2022 | Austin, TX's population grew by a third from 2010-2020. Now a hub for Tesla, Oracle, and Meta--it is trying to displace Silicon Valley but beginning to face some of San Francisco's challenges (traffic, housing shortages). | United States | |
| 1/15/2022 | Facing obstructionist Republican senators (Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz) and prioritizing floor time for record-setting judicial confirmations, Biden has only named 460 people to the 800 most important executive political appointee spots (68 of 190 ambassadorial positions are empty). | United States | |
| 1/15/2022 | Violent crime is surging during the pandemic; probably a result of soaring gun sales; financial stress; fewer bystanders; pandemic-driven closure of schools/community centres; thinned police ranks caused by covid; and police being less proactive in the wake of widespread protests. | United States | Policing |
| 1/8/2022 | Until 1934, there were Olympic contests for alpinism--and sports-related literature. Brazil now has videogames where political candidate lookalikes engage in hand-to-hand combat. | Global | Other |
| 1/8/2022 | MBS' cultural reforms are generating resentment amongst conservative Salafists and royal princes targeted in corruption purges. Nonetheless, his repression (jailings, Kashoggi) has deterred public criticism. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 1/8/2022 | Medical schools--especially in the south, are teaching wildly inaccurate approaches to handling transexual patients (claiming gender dysmorphia isn't an illness, or treating trans men same as cisgender men). | United States | Healthcare |
| 1/8/2022 | China shut down Hong Kong's last two Chinese-language independent newspapers. Some 60 pro-democracy organizations shutdown in 2021 and most of the opposition/press was arrested under the 2020 security law (China now wants additional provisions to go after "fake news"). | Asia | China |
| 1/1/2022 | Big law firm profits jumped ~6% in 2021, with partners averaging $2.5M takehome. Result of ballooning demand (M&A, PE deals, stock market listings, new areas of gov't regulation, startups fearing Theranos fate) and falling internal costs (travel, entertaining clients). WFH is also a convenient pretext to bill around the clock. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/1/2022 | Israel is quietly annexing the Golan Heights with a $317M development plan. While wary of the precendent, few in the international community want to see it go to Assad (Trump recognized Israeli sovereignty when they put his name in gold letters). | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 1/1/2022 | Narcotics organizations have proven resilient to the pandemic. After 50 years of unsuccessful efforts to stop drugs, Biden appears to prioritize stemming the flow of drug money (sanctions, TOC task force). | Americas | Drugs |
| 1/1/2022 | The WHO diagnostic manual now recognizes addiction to video games. The fact that game-makers' revenues are now tied to in-game purchases (which correlates to time played) gives them incentives to make them addictive. | Global | Other |
| 1/1/2022 | Harvard professor Charles Lieber didn't steal anything, but lied to FBI about unreported payments and bank accounts in China. Economic espionage is a real concern, but not delineating which technologies pose risks (e.g. weapons) may lead researchers to shun any collaboration with China at all, even in mutually beneficial areas (e.g. climate change). | United States | Science & Technology |
| 12/17/2021 | COVID has further isolated DPRK with heightened repression/starvation and accelerated nuclear program. Following Trump/Moon failures, Kim Jong-un will increase cyber attacks and reach out to Iran, Syria, and Venezuela. | Asia | North Korea |
| 12/10/2021 | Teletherapy apps are proliferating for around $65/month but many have weak privacy policies (hackers accessed notes for blackmail) and questionable efficacy (eg AI-powered chatbots). | United States | Healthcare |
| 12/10/2021 | EVs need to recharge every ~250 miles, and currently lack sufficient charging ports (both rapid and slow) away from home. Private sector has shown interest, but coordination/standadrization is needed. government should take lessons from telecoms to auction licenses to firms to run regional and national networks. | Global | Other |
| 12/3/2021 | Busan announced plans for a $200m prototype for a floating neighborhood to accommodate 300-500 people. | Asia | Korea |
| 12/3/2021 | Two recent Interpol presidents have been charged with corruption and the newest from UAE has record of abuse. Interpol is essentially communications hub for red notices, but many are politically motivated. An open vote and more scrutiny of red notices would help. | Global | Policing |
| 11/27/2021 | US gun ownership is beginning to diversify: 25% are women, 28% are Hispanic, 25% are black, and 19% are Asian. | United States | Guns |
| 11/27/2021 | Until recently, Iridium's 70 satellites was the largest LEO constellation. In two years, SpaceX's Starlink has now launched 1,584 with predictions for as many as 100,000 by 2030. SpaceX has reduced light pollution on subsequent launches, but professional astronomers are increasingly reliant on expensive projects like Hubble/JWST to get above the noise and amateur star-gazing is under existential threat. | Science & Technology | |
| 11/27/2021 | While most cyber security companies focus on defense, Israel's NSO's Pegasus provides undetected access to smartphones. While it purportedly only sold to friendly companies, a recent leak revealed targets included Macron. WhatsApp and Apple have both sued, supported by Google and Microsoft. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/27/2021 | Biden wants to revive FDR's Civilian Conservation Core as a part of the final piece of Build Back Better, but recruiting young people to toil in labor intensive jobs for low pay will be difficult. | United States | Economy |
| 11/27/2021 | To compete with the BJP, the Indian National Congress needs to move beyond the Gandhis, who have controlled the party for 43 years (three generations). They descend not from Mahatma, but Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister. | Asia | India |
| 11/20/2021 | In the focus on West Bank and Gaza, often missed is crime against Israeli-Arabs, which represent 21% of Israel's population and 75% of its murder victims (police solve 71% with Jewish victim; 22% with Arab victim). | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 11/20/2021 | After years of declining enrollment, Catholic schools saw a boost last year for returning to in-person learning before public schools. | United States | Education |
| 11/20/2021 | Whereas most philanthropists set up bureaucracies for vetting and tracking donations to large NGOs, Mackenzie Scott has used a single consultancy to donate at a rapid pace to small non-profits with no conditions. While opaque, her beneficiaries love it. | United States | |
| 11/13/2021 | Hollywood's dynamics are changing; streaming makes it harder to measure movie performance than box office. Actors are being paid upfront (good for most, bad for megastars). | United States | Economy |
| 11/13/2021 | Nuclear is responsible for 20% of US power and half its clean energy. Fracking and Fukushima threatened but its appeal is growing as climate activists become more pragmatic about decarbonization. | United States | Energy |
| 11/13/2021 | Steele Dossier is increasingly questionable (chain of acquisition: Clinton-tied US PR Executive > now-indicted US analyst > Steele), but no bearing on the subsequent investigations (FBI investigation triggered by Australian tip; Special Counsel triggered by Comey firing). Durham investigation has produced only three indictments but will bolster Trump talking points. | United States | |
| 11/6/2021 | 75% of executives want to return to the office, compared to only 34% of non-executives. Most seem to think it increases productivity (they may be biased given they've had personal success in an office environment). Also, they have nicer offices. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/6/2021 | China may now have 1,000 nukes by 2030 (now low-200s, US and Russia still have 400). They're also building silos, hypersonic glide delivery systems, and moving toward a "launch on warning" doctrine. Their motive is likely to assure second-strike capability, but they alarmingly show no interest in arms control deals or hot-line communication capabilities to reduce risk. | Asia | China |
| 10/30/2021 | Modi's Hindu-nationalist BJP is harrassing predominantly Muslim Bollywood stars with raids predicated on trumped up drug charges. | Asia | India |
| 10/30/2021 | Afghanistan is tumbling into an economic crisis that could dwarf even Syria and Yemen. While data on the informal economy is sparse, hunger is spreading, the Taliban has no plan, and Western NGOs seem disinterested in staying (foreign aid made up 40% of GDP). | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 10/30/2021 | Many rich countries decriminalized buying/selling sex, but prostitution remains illegal across the US (except part of Nevada). Activists are split between the Nordic model (decriminalizing only selling) or full decriminalization (opponents fear it would drive up demand). | United States | |
| 10/30/2021 | African coups have made a comback in the past year (successful in Chad, Guinea and Mali--twice--and failed in Madagascar and the Central African Republic). They are driven by jihadism (destablizes gov'ts) and China/Russia's jockeying for influence (mercenaries, political aid). | Africa | |
| 10/23/2021 | Autonomous cars are proving difficult to train (Uber sold its business, RAND estimates could take hundred years to be as safe as humans). Porsche is using simulators to reach the softrware about situations rarely encountered on real roads. | Science & Technology | |
| 10/23/2021 | Months after the discovery of two new ICBM silos in northern China, China may have tested two gliders, which--like ICBMs---are taken up on rockets, but are more maneuverable and difficult to detect/shoot down. | Asia | China |
| 10/16/2021 | After India tested a nuke in 1974, Pakistani A.Q. Khan stole centrifuge blueprints from the Netherlands. After providing it to his native Pakistan, he tried to sell to Iran, North Korea, Libya, and China. He was put under house arrest in 2004, and died of COVID at 85. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 10/16/2021 | Iran is spinning up a growing stock of 60% enriched uranium and impeding UN (IAEA) inspectors. Its breakout time, kept at a year by JCPOA, may have shrunk to a month (warhead may take two more years). The outlook for diplomacy is not good: new hardline leader and the economy is improving. | Asia | Iran |
| 10/16/2021 | COVID will eventually become endemic, similar to influenza. What it looks like will depend on immunity (vaccinated + recovered), treatment (antibodies and antivirals like molnupiravir), and how quickly the virus mutates (twice as quickly as flu). | Global | COVID |
| 10/9/2021 | The ISI and 55% of Pakistanis are pleased to have the Taliban (and Haqqani network) back in Afghanistan. But the Taliban's release of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) prisoners and the risk of civil war poses serious risks. The West should try to diplomacy, with little to lose. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 10/9/2021 | In 2010, Obama launched 128 drone strikes in Pakistan alone. In 2017, strikes killed 130 civilians in Afghanistan alone. Biden is calling for new guidelines, but will increasingly rely on over-the-horizon capabilities with degraded intelligence. | United States | Military |
| 10/9/2021 | Hydrogen remains less efficient than electric cars and heat pumps, but can be useful in niche markets involving complex chemical processes and high temperatures that are hard to achieve with electricity (making steel, long-range commercial transit, plant storage). | Science & Technology | |
| 10/2/2021 | While 24 countries abandoned conscription from 1990 to 2013, Ukraine, Lithuania, Sweden, the UAE, and Kuwait have all brought it back. Advocates see it as a deterrent for war and way to instill discipline in unruly youth. | Global | Military |
| 10/2/2021 | Brazil has been working on low-enriched nuclear submarines since the 1970s, and may still beat Australia. | Americas | Brazil |
| 10/2/2021 | With prison construction continuing, former jails in the Bronx and St Louis are being converted to housing. Lorton prison in VA, established in 1910 and closed in 2001, has converted into a an 80-acre "urban village." Watchtowers and building exteriors remain. | United States | |
| 10/2/2021 | Although renewable energy investments benefit red states, Republicans remain largely opposed because the hydrocarbon lobby outspends the renewables lobby roughly 13:1. | United States | Climate |
| 10/2/2021 | Agriculture uses half the world’s habitable land and accounts for more than 30% of global emissions. Global food prices have risen in 13 of the past 15 months owing to poor weather and pandemic-related disruption. Promising technologies include bioreactors that grow meat to indoor “vertical” farms and new ways of producing fish. Consumers should be willing to keep an open mind. | Global | Climate |
| 9/25/2021 | A new study finds an inverse relationship between wealth and religiosity. Religion may help relieve some of poverty's burden. | Global | |
| 9/25/2021 | In addition to the "Ferguson effect" (police officers pull back), a new paper identifies a "Floyd effect" (calls to police per shooting drop) after a high profile police incident. | United States | Policing |
| 9/25/2021 | Governor Newsom is right to end single family zoning, which will gradually increase housing supply. Opponents say it will increase gentrification, but redevelopment is voluntary and new tenants must stay at least three years. | United States | Housing |
| 9/18/2021 | There are two main faultlines in the Middle East: (1) Israel & Gulf v. Iran & Allies; (2) Turkey & Qatar v. UAE & Egypt. Exhausted leaders are hoping to restart diplomacy. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 9/18/2021 | Foreign policy pundits love to assign "Doctrines" to presidents, but they change and serve little utility (except Monroe Doctrine and Truman Doctrine). This is especially true for Biden. | United States | |
| 9/18/2021 | Biden's biggest policy achievement has been a 41% decrease in child poverty due to stimulus checks and a more generous child tax credit which pays out monthly instead of annually. | United States | Economy |
| 9/18/2021 | Finance is being disrupted by digital tech platforms, government-launched digital currencies ("govcoins"), and decentralized finance ("DeFi"). DeFi deserves a chance: transactions on blockchain are trustworthy, cheap, transparent, and quick. BitCoin is old news but Etherium is reaching critical mass. To succeed, it must integrate with existing institutions (be regulated) and energy usage must decline. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/11/2021 | Iran's hardline new cabinet includes 7 members associated with the IRGC, including the foreign minister who would have to renegotiate the nuclear deal. The government has no clear plans to fix the economy and claimed scarce AstraZeneca/Pfizer vaccines while leaving unproven local shots for the citizens. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 9/4/2021 | 2021 US GDP growth hasn't been terrible, but inflation is bad. Consumers seem less scared of disease than last year (raising the economic cost of lockdowns), but outbreaks in SE Asia are impacting supply chains and underemployed service sector is driving prices up. | United States | Economy |
| 9/4/2021 | The International Dark-Sky Association (IDA), based in Tucson, wants towns to curb their light pollution, which harms nocturnal wildlife and obscures the stars. The IDA has certified more than 130 dark-sky places globally since 2001; 14 of them are in Colorado. | United States | Climate |
| 9/4/2021 | Although Maduro is only supported by 16% of Venezuelans, he has all the guns and is willing to use them. The opposition is tired, hungry, and scared. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 9/4/2021 | A natural experiment in Indonesia found criminalizing sex work in some provinces led to increased STIs (no more free tests, less NGO-provided condoms, workers more vulnerable to assaults) | Asia | Indonesia |
| 9/4/2021 | 45 Q'Anon believers are running for Congress in 2022. Conspiracy theories are appealing because they help people to find meaning in a disturbingly random world, reassuring them that bad things result from the machinations of bad people rather than just bad luck (or their own mistakes). Fact-checking websites are growing but lack the audience. | Global | Other |
| 8/28/2021 | Apple has benefited from four trends which are now fading: global supply chains, gov't lax about corporate giants, cartellish coziness between tech firms, and tax avoidance. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/28/2021 | Ashraf Ghani joins ex-Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf, ex-Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra, and ex-Spanish king Juan Carlos as troubled leaders seeking refuge in the UAE. Dubai has a lax attitude toward dirty money, the rich live privately, and MBZ welcomes influence. | Global | |
| 8/21/2021 | 20 years after 9/11, many Guantanamo military commissions remain in pre-trial status because of the government’s pursuit of the death penalty and repeated litigation over the admissibility of evidence taken under torture. The absence of constitutional protections has added confusion, requiring clarification by higher courts. | United States | Military |
| 8/21/2021 | Despite massive shortages, western utilities still provide cheap water, reducing incentives to conserve. Better metering, more recycling, and eliminating "use or lose" agricultural statutes would help reduce usage. | United States | Climate |
| 8/21/2021 | More lessons from COVID: Biotech labs need more safety/security regulations, sewage/air should be sample tested more widely, ways to create vaccines quicker should be explored, and real-time genomic surveillance and borders. | Global | COVID |
| 8/14/2021 | Modern soccer analytics can measure how each action affects a team’s odds of scoring, by comparing where the ball was before and after a player touched it. They prove Lionel Messi is the greatest of all time by far. | Other | Sports |
| 8/14/2021 | While the focus is on CO2, methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas (and only stays in the atmosphere 10 years). Energy production and landfills should be regulated, and livestock feed tailored to reduce burping. | Global | Climate |
| 8/7/2021 | Industry is adjusting correctly to the microchip shortage, with producers (Intel, Samsung) investing more and consumers (Toyota, Apple) solidifying their supply chains. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/7/2021 | Internet marketplaces and 3D printing have made self-assembled firearms increasingly common (3x 2017). 10 states are pushing legislation but Republicans would likely to block any national reform. | United States | Policing |
| 8/7/2021 | After downing a RyanAir flight to incarcerate a journalist, Europe's last dictator removed Belarus' sprinter from Tokyo for complaining about her assignment to the 4x100 relay. | Europe | Belarus |
| 8/7/2021 | A key driver of Brexit was fear of immigration, but UK is ranked 17th in Europe for asylum seekers adjusted by population. More, research shows stricter asylum conditions is a scant deterrent. | Europe | UK |
| 8/7/2021 | Paris 2024 Olympics pledges first-ever parity between men-women athletes (5,000 each) and a slight reduction in events (to 329), including replacing baseball/karate with breakdancing. | Other | Sports |
| 7/31/2021 | Researchers are experimenting with using the exquisite smelling abilities of fruit flies, worms, and bees to rapidly diagnose cancer or COVID. | Science & Technology | |
| 7/31/2021 | The US is the fattest country in OECD. Heart disease kills 25% of Americans. 50% have high blood pressure, 12% high cholesterol, 10% type II diabetes. | United States | Healthcare |
| 7/31/2021 | Duterte's appeasement of China has yielded little for the Philippines. China has continued to push maritime boundaries and only 3 of 14 promised China-funded infrastructure projects have broken ground. | Asia | Philippines |
| 7/24/2021 | 56% of Americans pay taxes. Starved of resources, individual audits have fallen below 1%, but the CBO estimates $20B in extra IRS enforcement would recover $61B in lost revenue. But Congress should also separate determination of tax status from the processing and auditing of tax returns and tax credits. And, most important, the tax code itself needs radical simplification. | United States | |
| 7/24/2021 | Having delivered mailed DVDs and online streaming, Netflix now plans to offer games on its mobile app within a year. Subscription gaming services without in-app purchases, like Google's Stadia and Amazon's Luna have a weak track record. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/17/2021 | Although Branson and Bezos prove space tourism is now feasible, it remains expensive, highly regulated, and could be set back by delays or a disaster. Bezos reached 100km Karman line, though Branson reached 80km altitude defined by the US military. | Science & Technology | |
| 7/17/2021 | Biden has left Trump's closed Cuba policy intact, to avoid angering hawkish Cuban-Americans. But the embargo has not triggered protestors, it merely provides the regime an excuse | Americas | Cuba |
| 7/17/2021 | By some estimates, 10% of the athletes at Tokyo are doping. The World Anti-Doping Association (WADA) should receive enhanced funding and new leadership (too often the enforcers are too chummy with the sport) | Other | Sports |
| 7/10/2021 | Critical Race Theory originated in the 1970s as a legal perspective that emphasised the role of systemic racism (as opposed to the individual sort) in replicating inequality. Conservatives counter CRT believes all the events around us must be explained in terms of racial identities. There's a middle ground. | United States | Race |
| 7/10/2021 | With death penalties receding worldwide, life without parole sentences grew 80% from 2000 to 2014. But it is a poor deterrent (risk of being caught far exceeds punishment), older prisoners are 3x expensive (health costs), and sometimes overly rigid (mandatory sentencing rules). Prison should prevent harm, not expiate sins. Norway has a maximum sentence of 21 years, although if deemed dangerous, a judge can extend. Even for the worst, 25 years is usually enough. | Global | Capital Punishment |
| 7/3/2021 | A US poll found 42% of remote workers would look for a new job if their employers asked them to come back to the office full-time. | United States | |
| 7/3/2021 | In 1998, China bought a half-built Soviet carrier and refashioned it the Liaoning. It built a knock-off commissioned in 2019. It's building a larger catapult design which could be launched in late 2021, with a potential nuclear powered successor. | Asia | China |
| 7/3/2021 | An ODNI report on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs) groups incidents into: airborne clutter (like hobbyists’ drones), natural atmospheric phenomena (ice crystals, for instance), classified aircraft programmes, “foreign adversaries” or a residual “other” | United States | Military |
| 7/3/2021 | Extreme heat killed 300,000 in 2018 and that will grow. Governments need to provide early warnings and cooling stations, while cities should include shady areas and light/reflective building materials. | Global | Climate |
| 6/19/2021 | New South Wales is investing in research into tweaking mice’s genes to slow their breeding (either elimininating sperm which carries X chromosome or rendering females infertile) | Asia | Australia |
| 6/19/2021 | Sandia is developing a system which can detect movement in tunnels underground. It uses networks of sensors (accelerometers, which pick up vibrations, current detectors, which measure the electrical-resistance of rocks and soil, and subsurface radar). | United States | Military |
| 6/19/2021 | France carried out nearly 200 nuclear tests in French Polynesia and 17 in Algeria between 1960 and 1966. | Africa | Algeria |
| 6/19/2021 | Crime is narrowly concentrated in certain blocks. In Denver 38 microplaces, equivalent to 1.5% of the city's landmass, accounted for about 25% of all violence in 2020. | United States | Policing |
| 6/5/2021 | -In 2013, DARPA awarded an upstart company Moderna $25M to explore using mRNA for vaccines. Its Covid-19 vaccine now joins weather satellites, gps, drones, stealth technology, voice interfaces, the personal computer and the internet on the list of innovations for which DARPA can claim at least partial credit | United States | Military |
| 6/5/2021 | -Corn derives from Mexico; rice from China; potatoes from the border between Peru and Bolivia; apples trace back to the woodlands of southern Kazakhstan. | Global | |
| 6/5/2021 | -Macron all-but apologized for France's role in the 1994 Rwanda genocide, in which the French backed and armed the Hutu regime which carried out the massacres. It's part of his Africa reset policy. | Europe | France |
| 6/5/2021 | -Van and camper van rentals increased 4000% in 2020 as parks reopened and people fled cities. The new mobile class includes both those unable to afford houses as well as millenials working remotely and looking to boost their social media following. | United States | |
| 5/29/2021 | -Nine months after leading a coup which brought down Mali's president (and eight months after elections), Colonel Goita once again detained the new President. This time, the military has less popular support and jihadists have taken note of the political turbulence. | Middle East & Africa | Mali |
| 5/29/2021 | -While the US badly needs new infrastcuture, the cost of transportation projects has tripled due to stagnated productivity in construction and delays caused by participatory democracy | United States | |
| 5/29/2021 | -Since Oslo in 1993, Israel and Palestine have ostensibly been working toward a two-state solution. Today, talking about a 2SS figleaf is counterproductive, allowing Israelis to claim their settlements will be undone in the final deal. Leaders on both sides are unincentivized for peace, so any progress must be grassroots. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 11/28/2020 | -Liberal democracy is in decline, but there’s hope. Populists took advantage of stagnating living standards and fear of immigration by elevating identity above policy (Trump didn’t even bother proposing policy platforms for his re-election). Identity politics has re-engaged voter participation but also animosity and gridlock. Nonetheless, elections always presents opportunities for fresh leadership and the professionalism of America’s judges and officials held strong. | Global | |
| 11/28/2020 | -Across the West, fewer students are studying China in university. Reasons: difficulty of Mandarin, many Chinese speak English, China’s repressive political climate/fear of detention, more appealing cultures (Japanese). This is concerning for Sino-Western relations. | Asia | China |
| 11/28/2020 | -COVID will cause a 4% global recession in 2020, but has impacted industries differently. Air traffic and live music have been essentially shut down. In advertising and office-work, incumbents like Google and Zoom have emerged strong. But other industries have been shaken up (e.g. people now prefer highlight clips to live sports, take-out may take a bite out of restaurants). | Business & Economics | |
| 11/28/2020 | -Despite his success in propagating lies of election fraud, Trump may not continue to hold as much sway over Republicans as many fear. Historically, parties like winners (Grover Cleveland in 1892 is the only one-term president given another chance). Even cheerleaders like Rush Limbaugh have attacked Giuliani’s shambolic efforts. With Twitter growing less tolerant of disinformation, Trump has focused on OAN & Newsmax, which reach 50M homes but carry less clout in shaping the political conversation than Fox News. | United States | Politics |
| 11/28/2020 | -Trump doubled the OFAC sanctions list, but his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran and its allies (Syria, Lebanon, Houthis) has accomplished little. Sanctions need to be used in conjunction with allies and other tools—not as a an ends to themselves. | United States | |
| 11/21/2020 | -The farther golfers drive the ball, the longer holes need to be so skills like iron play and putting remain important. But the longer courses are, the more they cost to maintain and the worse their environmental impact. Courses tried to limit drive distances by limiting club size, but a new generation of players has found an upward trajectory and forward spin still allows them to add distance. | Other | Sports |
| 11/21/2020 | -Trump was right to negotiate with the Taliban, but they have violated February's agreement with continued attacks on civilians. Thus, withdrawing troops signals the US will leave no matter what, undermining continued talks and risking the collapse of the Afghani army. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 11/21/2020 | -Whereas the US-USSR conflict focused on ideology and nuclear weapons, US-China will battle over semi-conductors, data, 5G networks, internet standards, AI, and quantum computing. Whereas the first cold war was between different worlds, the second is interconnected. Trump sounded the alarm on China and won a few skirmishes over Huawei, but Biden should pursue a grand bargain with allies in Europe and Asia to coordinate efforts on critical technologies, diversify supply chains, and identify security threats. | Asia | China |
| 11/21/2020 | -Airborne dogfights are obsolete (last was 1988, when an Iranian F-4 shot down an Iraqi Su-22 with its cannon). Focus is now on Manned-Unmanned Teaming. Unmanned wingmen allow higher g-force maneuvers, riskier missions, and hand-off of certain tasks (e.g. missile/collision avoidance). Adaptive autonomy even assesses the pilot’s sweat, eye movement, and brain activity to determine if they need help. But AI is also inflexible/makes mistakes, and removing the pilot don’t save much weight (1-2%). | United States | Military |
| 11/21/2020 | -The US successfully proved its ship-based Aegis SM-3 IIA interceptor can shoot down an ICBM (in addition to the ground-based GMD interceptors). Concerned this lessens their deterrent, Russia and China are likely to diversify/grow their arsenals--and could set back arms-control talks. | United States | Military |
| 11/21/2020 | -The US foreign service is broken: morale is low, budgets are squeezed, and politicization of senior posts has pushed out talent (100% of the 23 A/S positions and 43% of ambassadors are political appointees). Diversity is even worse (the Senior Foreign Service is 90% white and 69% male). Suggested remedies (preferably enshrined by law) include: (1) 15% increase in foreign service personnel with potential reserve component like military for surge crises (2) quotas for minimum number of career personnel (3) slashing bureaucracy (4) more Chinese speakers. | United States | |
| 11/14/2020 | -China has slapped tariffs on many imports from Australia, both as punishment for a row over COVID origins and a way to meet its trade agreement with the US. Australia is trying to diversify buyers, but remains heavily dependent on Chinese markets. | Asia | China |
| 11/14/2020 | -Latin America is increasingly seeing previous presidents continue to rule through young proxies (Alvaro Uribe in Colombia, Evo Morales in Bolivia, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in Argentina). Most are a result of term limits and early 2000s commodity booms which left incumbents popular. | Americas | |
| 11/14/2020 | -Peru’s single-chamber legislature ousted its second president in three years over unproven charges of receiving kickbacks from 2011-14. He remained popular (58% approval) amidst a pandemic which has killed 35K and a 15% economic contraction. There will be new elections next July. | Americas | Peru |
| 11/14/2020 | -Pfizer/BioNTech’s vaccine over 90% effective (86 of the 94 who developed symptoms were on placebo); surpassing their goal of 70% (seasonal flu is only 40-60%). In just 10 months, they developed the first vaccine to use RNA genetic instructions instead of protein fragments. Governments were willing to shell out money and regulators have been working closely. Still to be seen is whether it blocks spread and how long immunity lasts. Although RNA may be easier to produce, distribution will be a challenge: it requires two jabs 3 weeks apart and must be kept at -70°C. Early recipients should be frontline health-care/social workers, elderly over 65, and those with underlying health conditions. | Global | COVID |
| 11/14/2020 | -Value investing, exalted by Benjamin Graham and popularized by Warren Buffett, involves a strict focus on assets/cashflow over investments/trajectory. But it has performed poorly over the past decade, largely by missing the rise of tech and discounting externalities like a shift away from hydrocarbons. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/14/2020 | -Biden is on track to have won the popular vote by 5M votes but the Presidency by ~115,000 across WI, GA, PA. The average polling margin of error was 5.5%, nearly double the 2000-16 average. Democrats’ disappointing down ballot performance suggests Joe was popular enough but a leftist agenda remains too radical for most of the country. Trump is using his refusal to concede to fundraise and shape the narrative of his departure, but as a result is delaying critical transition activities (and 86% of his supporters believe Biden’s victory invalid). | United States | Politics |
| 11/14/2020 | -Defense Secretary Esper was fired for opposing invocation of the Insurrection Act (deploying troops domestically on protestors), approving the promotion of Col. Vindman (who retired anyway), and effectively banning the confederate flag from military institutions. The Pentagon’s new leadership appears predominantly partisan ideologues, including USD(P) Anthony Tata who has called Obama a “Muslim…terrorist leader.” | United States | Military |
| 11/7/2020 | -A new study finds 71% of COVID carriers don't infect anyone; 10% of carriers account for 60% of the cases, driven by superspreader events (of ~100 of those events, only 3 took place outdoors). | Global | COVID |
| 11/7/2020 | -Democracy is faltering in Africa, with dubious victories for incumbents in Guinea, Ivory Coast, and Tanzania. Nearly half of African leaders have not left after their two-term limit. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 11/7/2020 | -Despite recent horrors in Dresden, Paris, Nice and Vienna, jihadism has declined in Europe since 2017. Tracking is becoming harder because fewer terrorists actually travel to Syria, most are now radicalized online or in prisons. | Global | Terrorism |
| 11/7/2020 | -Large organizations increasingly rely on multiple-choice psychometric/aptitude tests to help them sort through a sea of candidates scoring them based on OCEAN (openness, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness and neuroticism). Some findings are counterintuitive (extroverts are poor call-center employees because they chat too much; introverts are better train drivers because they pay more attention to details). | Business & Economics | |
| 11/7/2020 | -Russia has modernized roughly 26% of its military inventory since 2007—particularly jets, precision missiles, and nuclear forces including lurid weapons such as hypersonic gliders, radioactive torpedos designed to pollute coastal areas and nuclear-powered cruise missiles capable of circling the Earth indefinitely. It has also improved readiness and agility through operations in Syria. Its weaknesses are low troop morale and space, where its aging fleet of reconnaissance satellites has shrunk over the years. | Europe | Russia |
| 11/7/2020 | -To replace Huawei equipment in Britain, Vodafone announced will employ a technology called OpenRAN which uses primarily off-the-shelf hardware with lots of code. A potential alternative to Huawei and the Nordic twins (Nokia and Ericsson), governments should support integration by setting common standards. | Science & Technology | |
| 11/7/2020 | -Economist model projected Biden to get 356 electoral votes, with 95% chance of winning. Trump again vastly outperformed his polling, suggesting Trump-supporting working-class whites are less likely to respond to pollsters. | United States | Politics |
| 11/7/2020 | -Policies aside, Trump has repeatedly desecrated the values, principles, and practices that made America a beacon to the world. He has never sought to represent the majority of Americans who did not vote for him and has head-spinning contempt for the truth. He has undermined norms and institutions by weaponizing DOJ, attacking science, stoking racial tension, and undermining elections. | United States | Politics |
| 10/31/2020 | -Britain furloughed nearly 30% of its workforce, through a scheme by which they put in 20% of hours and the government covers half their pay. This is not only expensive, but protects jobs for which there is no longer demand (should follow example of US by replacing income). | Europe | UK |
| 10/31/2020 | -European governments spend about 3x the US on cultural activities, as a proportion of GDP. Orchestras and museums rely on state—not private—sponsorship. COVID has prompted even larger interventions to sectors hurt by reduced tourism. | Europe | |
| 10/31/2020 | -Green energy sources receive about 4% of the global R&D spending. Governments should support VCs and private industry in risky investments and enact policies encouraging greener consumption (e.g. pricing carbon). | Business & Economics | |
| 10/31/2020 | -Pressure is growing for social media executives to restrict more content. Governments should set basic rules about obscenity, incitement, and defamation at the national level—as they do for speech. If executives want to restrict further, they should ensure predictability and transparency to avoid the appearance of bias. Fake news is better exposed by a noisy argument than enforced silence. | Business & Economics | |
| 10/31/2020 | -Race is fluid in Brazil; more than 42,000 local candidates are running as members of a different race from the one they declared in 2016 (36% from white to mixed race). Reasons: (1) identities shift to represent constituencies, (2) a court ruling awards public campaign funding to black/brown candidates. | Americas | Brazil |
| 10/31/2020 | -The CCP released its new 5-year plan without hint of Xi’s successor. Fresh off his extensive “corruption purges,” Xi remains as powerful as ever and seemingly fit to go well beyond 2022. | Asia | China |
| 10/31/2020 | -The Trump administration’s transactional diplomacy insisted on Sudan’s recognition of Israel in exchange for removal of state sponsor of terrorism designation (which was outdated since the coup against Omar al-Bashir last year. | Middle East & Africa | Sudan |
| 10/31/2020 | -While monopolies exist in search and social media, cloud computing remains competitive between AWS, Microsoft Azure, Alphabet, and Oracle. | Business & Economics | |
| 10/24/2020 | -Although the US left the JCPOA, the UN remains committed to the expiration of the arms embargo on Iran this month. Russia and China will both be interested, but will want to maintain relations with Iran’s deeper-pocketed Arab neighbors. Iran’s own strategy relies primarily on ballistic missiles as deterrence and militia groups (Hezbollah, Houthis) to project power. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 10/24/2020 | -Business can apply lessons from the military about handling VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity). Specifically, pushing authority down command structures and wargaming scenarios (instead of trying to make precise forecasts). | Business & Economics | |
| 10/24/2020 | -Driven by Russia, Sweden passed a bill set to grow defense spending by 40% in 2025 (1.5% GDP). It also brings back the draft and increases cooperation with NATO. | Europe | Sweden |
| 10/24/2020 | -The FBI arrested 13 “Wolverine Watchmen” who planned to kidnap MI Governor Gretchen Whitmer—ideas included grabbing her from a car, using a Taser, posing as food delivery, and a 200-person assault of the state capitol. Most militias are not violent, but white extremism, hate groups, and weapons sales are at all-time highs (economy, returning veterans, Trump). | United States | Terrorism |
| 10/24/2020 | -World Rugby announced it would prohibit transgender women from competing in women’s rugby; other sports should follow. Evidence confirms most males are bigger, faster, and stronger than most females. Most is due to testosterone levels, and even suppression does not close the gap significantly. | Science & Technology | |
| 10/17/2020 | -After six missed openings, countless lawsuits, a handful of corruption scandals and two parliamentary inquiries (one of them still going), and at a cost of around $8.2B, Berlin Brandenburg Airport will mark its official opening on October 31. Tegel, an eccentric airport in north-west Berlin, will close. But with air travel at all-time lows, more taxpayer money will be required to keep it afloat. | Europe | Germany |
| 10/17/2020 | -Despite a weak social safety net, China was able to contain the virus and re-open. Europe has poured money into ossifying zombie firms, rather than letting them adjust. US has bailed out fewer firms but is crippled by divisive politics. As business moves online, firms with the most tech IP and data will thrive. | Asia | China |
| 10/17/2020 | -In the worst fighting since 1994, Azerbaijan (with Turkish support) attacked an Armenian-administered region. While the two sides have just 52 planes between them, fighting has revealed the value of small drones like the Turkish TB2 and Israeli Harop. Trump and Putin, both distracted by domestic squabbles, are uninterested in brokering peace (Russia sells weapons to both sides). | Europe | |
| 10/17/2020 | -Though 2/3 of Taiwanese dislike China, Xi remains committed to unification and the PLA (which now spends 25x Taiwan on defense) has stepped up flyovers. China’s amphibious capabilities are immature (an aerial/special ops attack is more likely), Taiwan has maneuverable/survivable anti-ship weapons in its mountainous interior, and the battlefield would be too crowded for the PLA to deploy its full forces. Nonetheless, it’s unclear the US has the stomach to intervene—especially with sustained casualties and Chinese nuclear ranges. | Asia | China |
| 10/17/2020 | -When Airbus overtook Boeing in 2004, Boeing accused Airbus of receiving unfair European subsidies. Airbus parried with its own claim that Boeing received favorable tax breaks and government R&D. Last year, the WTO allowed America to slap duties on $7.5B in European goods. This month, the WTO ruled the EU can impose tariffs on $4B of US goods annually. With no knockout blow, the spat may end in a negotiated settlement. | Business & Economics | |
| 10/17/2020 | -Republicans are taking increasingly bold efforts to suppress votes: TX limited to one drop box per county (Harris County has 4.7m people, 70% non-white). GA, OH, TX removed 160K people from voter rolls in 2018-19. FL essentially reversed a law to allow former felons to vote by requiring they pay outstanding fees. | United States | Politics |
| 10/10/2020 | -Before COVID, cinemas like AMC made big investments in snazzy multiplexes with bars and waiters to differentiate themselves from home streaming. Unfortunately, this racked up debt and without a bailout, over half are likely to go bankrupt. | Business & Economics | |
| 10/10/2020 | -Just 27% of Israelis approve of Netanyahu’s handling of the pandemic, in which he botched a school reopening and coddled ultra-Orthodox allies who flaunt medical guidelines. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 10/10/2020 | -Models accounting for increased testing suggest the COVID infections have come down since summer, and the progress in treatments like dexamethasone have reduced deaths. But the pandemic will continue well into 2021: no vaccine is 100% effective and logistics/supplies take time. States need to do a better job of threading the balance between health and economic risks using targeted testing and tracing, requiring masks, and prioritizing opening schools before bars. | Global | COVID |
| 10/10/2020 | -Racism can be reinforced by our language, as in the use of black to mean danger or evil (e.g. black magic, black economy). Some are working to replace “blacklist” with “blocklist.” | Other | |
| 10/10/2020 | -Six years into the war in Yemen, conflict is escalating, the economy is collapsing, COVID is spreading, and a rusting tanker risks an ecological nightmare—but the largest problem is famine. Two years ago, to improve their global image, KSA and UAE lifted their blockade on food/medicine, but now they have other priorities. | Middle East & Africa | Yemen |
| 10/10/2020 | -Virtual Reality, Augmented Reality, and Mixed Reality (XR) are no longer limited to gaming and headsets. Modern simulation technologies like those used in the Mandalorian (more sophisticated than simple green screen) allow IKEA to cheaply create artificial catalog photos (and customers can render how furniture would fit in their living rooms). Vital environments are good for training and remote activity for astronauts and surgeons. Psychologists are using VR for exposure therapy for PTSD victims. | Science & Technology | |
| 10/10/2020 | -Trump’s taxes reflect what he wanted to show the taxman, so may understate true profits (e.g. may not reflect depreciation of assets). His future depends on whether his $300M loans are leveraged against hard assets, if he wins his 2010 $100M IRS audit, the impact of COVID on his properties, and the future of the Trump brand. | United States | Politics |
| 10/3/2020 | -Oracle, which once dominated relational databases, was slow to adapt to the cloud and has seen its market share fall to 28%. It is hoping better management, a partnership with TikTok, and a Larry Ellison’s relationship with Trump may help it moving forward. | Business & Economics | |
| 10/3/2020 | -Social media algorithms designed to scrub terrorist propaganda are also destroying evidence of war crimes needed to convict terrorists. While subject to claims of deep fakes, this content can provide prosecutors new leads or clues. Some want deleted content to be stored in independent archives. | Business & Economics | |
| 10/3/2020 | -To address an aging population and low fertility rate, Uruguay has attracted some 20,000 Argentinians with 10-year tax holidays, a low 60-day requirement for citizenship, and more competent management of COVID. | Americas | Uruguay |
| 10/3/2020 | -Republicans have won the popular vote just 1 of the past 7 cycles yet Republicans will soon have appointed 6 of 9 Supreme Court justices. The vitriol of recent nomination battles is a result of both sides using raw power to further their cause (2013 Democratic elimination of filibuster, McConnell’s “[2020] bogus exception to [2016] bogus precedent”). A solution would be 18-year terms to end gamesmanship of retirements and celebrity/geriatric justices. | United States | Politics |
| 10/3/2020 | -With more favorable seats up for re-election for Democrats, they now have ~67% chance of taking back the Senate via picking up seats in Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, and Maine (they will lose Doug Collins’ seat in Alabama). They also have a chance for upsets in Iowa and Georgia. | United States | Politics |
| 9/27/2020 | -Abortion is legal in most of the world, but obstacles include compulsory waiting times, mandatory counselling, and the initial drugs must be administered in a clinic. The pandemic has permitted delivering pills by mail during the first trimester, which is safer because women get treatment quicker. | Global | Abortion |
| 9/27/2020 | -Citizens' assemblies have proven useful to break political deadlock on issues because ordinary people, it turns out, are quite reasonable. But they must have a clear issue to debate and politicians must be open to their conclusions. | Global | |
| 9/27/2020 | -Quantum computing has a ways to go but vast potential in everything from searching databases to simulating chemical reactions. A recent uptick in funding yields a couple lessons: (1) government should follow the lead of VCs in knowing when to stop funding research, (2) progress is nonlinear and dependent on advances in related fields like lasers and cryogenics. | Science & Technology | |
| 9/27/2020 | -Snowflake has turned data warehouses into data lakes for analysis and moved them into clouds operated by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Microsoft is experimenting with storing server racks in underwater capsules. Benefits: using nitrogen rather than air reduces corrosion, less humans bumping/jostling, easier to keep cool, and doesn't require land real estate near busy cities. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/27/2020 | -Social distancing continues to reduce global GDP by 7-8%; goods have largely recovered but services (e.g. restaurants) still struggling. Disparities between countries are driven by industrial composition (Germany boosted by recovering manufacturing), confidence (UK government bungling), and stimulus (US CARES Act commendable). | Business & Economics | |
| 9/27/2020 | -The challenge of voting is dual requirements for transparency (audits) and privacy (secret ballot). A 1987 mathematical breakthrough (homomorphic encryption) and 2016 threat (Russian interference) have helped bring major players back into the market for voting machines (e.g. Microsoft ElectionGuard). Approaches for ensuring security include going analog or requiring physical authentication (e.g. ID cards, biometrics). Macron responded to Russian hackers’ leaks by muddying the water with fake documents to cast doubt on legitimacy. | Science & Technology | |
| 9/27/2020 | -The Queen’s Governor Generals remain heads of state in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, three Pacific islands, and nine Caribbean islands. The difficulty with transitioning to republicanism is replacing the monarch with a president involves unpicking a country's constitution. And the PM should not appoint the president, but is loath to give legitimacy to someone who could become a political rival. | Europe | UK |
| 9/27/2020 | -The UK's forthcoming SDSR will focus on greyzone threats, technological solutions, and niche capabilities. But betting on futuristic weapons while retiring proven capabilities is a strategic gamble with political risk (Tories like large armed forces). | Europe | UK |
| 9/27/2020 | -While oil currently powers 85% of global energy, renewables could reach 50% by 2050. This new green world will not only reduce climate change, but be more politically stable because supply will be diversified—geographically and technologically. The challenge will be the transition: petrostates will struggle to diversify and autocratic China will yield its leverage (produces 72% of solar modules, 69% of lithium-ion batteries, and 45% of wind turbines). | Asia | China |
| 9/20/2020 | -Although the PDF was invented in 1991, it took a pandemic to tear down bureaucratic and investment hurdles and enable widespread remote working. More flexibility and no commutes makes workers happier and arguably more productive; though some fear creativity flags, hierarchies ossify, and team spirit fades. Yahoo tried and abandoned WFH in 2013. The future is likely a part-time arrangement with targeted staff interactions to refresh friendships and swap information. Challenges include privacy concerns around monitoring remote workers for productivity, and how to handle blue collar resentment of white collar perks. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/20/2020 | -One year after Modi unconstitutionally split the Indian-administered Kashmiri state, suspended local politics, and removed many civil liberties, most of the restrictions remain in place (535,000 troops deployed, internet hopelessly slow, COVID is a good excuse to ban assembly). | Asia | India |
| 9/20/2020 | -Only 30% of the world’s population have formal titles to their land. Without a legal claim to their property, they cannot provide collateral to borrow money to buy better seeds or start a business. Many initiatives are under way, but hampered by restrictive planning laws, political interference, and loopholes. | Global | Housing |
| 9/20/2020 | -The UAE is in talks for F-35, F/A-18G, and MQ-9. It appears Netanyahu reluctantly let this slide to save his deal for normalized relations, but did not consult the Israeli experts who manage Israel’s Qualified Military Edge (QME)—required by US law—at the Pentagon. Trump—who may try to push this through before November—may seek to sell even more advanced equipment to Israel. | Middle East & Africa | UAE |
| 9/20/2020 | -Venezuela’s GDP has shrank 73% since 2013. But Maduro’s opposition is hopelessly divided: moderates (Henrique Capriles) v. radicals (Juan Guaido), and exiles v. those in Venezuela. Guaido wants to boycott December elections but Capriles is trying to negotiate terms with Maduro. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 9/20/2020 | -Wildfires are inevitable, fueled by climate change and an ecosystem that burns regularly as part of its natural cycle. But California increased its vulnerability with a litany of self-defeating policies: fire-safe building codes came late (2008) and only apply to new construction, contrary to evidence zoning considers cities “unburnable”, and insurers are forced to renew policies in high-risk areas. | United States | Climate |
| 9/20/2020 | -Tanks can still be effective (e.g. Russian T-72s penetrated Ukraine in 2014), but are increasingly vulnerable to advanced sensors (Turkish drones killed dozens of Syrian tanks in February). Some are abandoning them (USMC), while others are modernizing sensors, weapons, and even active defense (Israel). Future tactics will probably include concealment, cover, darkness, and dispersal to get close to the enemy before attacking. | United States | Military |
| 9/20/2020 | -The CDC issued a sweeping moratorium on evictions, arguing they hasten the spread of the virus. While well-intentioned, its lawfulness is in doubt. Both renters and landlords want the USG to foot the bill. | United States | Housing |
| 9/13/2020 | -AMLO has turned evidence of corruption against former Mexican Presidents (e.g. Odebrecht/Pena Nieto) into a PR stunt, vowing to put his case to a national referendum. He should instead follow the example of Brazil and appoint an independent commission to investigate and prosecute. | Americas | Brazil |
| 9/13/2020 | -China may overtake the US as the largest cinema market this year, but imposes censorship (no Tiananmen, Taiwan, or Tibet). Nonetheless, Hollywood's kowtowing will be restrained by fear of losing the American market and the rise of streaming. | Asia | China |
| 9/13/2020 | -In addition to Tibetans and Uighurs, China is flooding Inner Mongolia (a northern providence of China) with Han, reducing ethnic Mongols to under a fifth of the population. | Asia | China |
| 9/13/2020 | -India’s rapid lockdown caused Q2 GDP to drop 23.9%--the first negative quarter since at least 1996 (and much higher than 9.1% in the US). | Asia | India |
| 9/13/2020 | -Scientists at the “Body Farm” in TN are looking for botanical clues to help drones find bodies. Decaying human bodies release 50x a typical fertilizer’s level of nitrogenous compounds (mostly ammonia), as well as cadmium which can enhance chlorophyll/greenness. Other animal corpses could have similar impact but are usually scavenged at the surface. | Science & Technology | |
| 9/13/2020 | -Since 1979, the US policy of “strategic ambiguity” has provided enough reassurance to Taiwan America would not let China invade unpunished, but not so much to embolden Taiwanese into a formal declaration of independence—which China has always warned would mean war. Trump has strengthened its “unofficial” relationship by accepting a congratulatory call from Tsai Ing-wen and announcing high-level economic talks. | Asia | China |
| 9/13/2020 | -While a wide range of activities have moved online successfully, proving one’s identity remains a problem. Governments should create optional systems of secure digital identities like Estonia. In democratic systems, worries about security and privacy can be allayed by two-factor authentication and laws against abuse. | Science & Technology | |
| 9/13/2020 | -While Putin has yet to deploy Green Men to the unrest in Belarus, Lukashenko has welcomed deployments of RT news media to try re-shape the information narrative of the protests. Pro-democracy advocates eschew all state media in favor of social media. | Europe | Russia |
| 9/13/2020 | -NYC’s MTA is losing $200M per week due to 75% fewer fares and overnight cleaning costs. It is required by law to balance its books but absent government support it will have to delay capital projects, reduce service to suburbs, and lay off 8,400 workers. | United States | |
| 9/5/2020 | -A coup in Mali demonstrates the limits of trying to solve political problems with military force alone. The weak, corrupt state has not only failed to stop killing but been complicit in it. The West should focus on improving governance and diplomacy. | Middle East & Africa | Mali |
| 9/5/2020 | -Bipedal robots are getting better but quadruped robots are proving more useful for inspection and maintenance—especially in cramped or hazardous environments. | Science & Technology | |
| 9/5/2020 | -China blocks Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, & Instagram and censors Weibo & WeChat--but podcasts popular with urban elite remain less so (accessible through VPNs and too numerous to censor). | Asia | China |
| 9/5/2020 | -Dementia (60-80% Alzheimer's) is rising as life expectancies increase. With no convincing vaccine or cure in sight, tech can help but long-term care will require a tremendous amount of people and money--some of which is being diverted to COVID. | Science & Technology | |
| 9/5/2020 | -Entering its IPO, Palantir (named for the all-knowing orb in Lord of the Rings) has yet to turn a profit in 17 years. Disliked in Silicon Valley for its secret USG customers, it decamped to Denver. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/5/2020 | -People in rich countries believe in science more but vaccines less—perhaps because they are more susceptible to fake science around autism and haven’t seen the devastation of disease first-hand. This has already caused measles to revive and now threatens COVID herd immunity. | Science & Technology | |
| 9/5/2020 | -Some airlines are selling their in-air meals directly for $2--and have an enthusiastic niche market. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/5/2020 | -From 1965-75, veterans made up 70% of Congress—now 18%. Reasons: (1) veterans smaller portion of general population (2) women are under-represented in the armed forces—only 17%. Risk: studies find those without military experience are more likely to countenance intervention. | United States | Politics |
| 8/29/2020 | -30-50% of COVID victims do not notice symptoms, most of the rest can recover in 2-3 weeks home rest (only 3-4% require hospitalization). But a small but significant number have lung, heart, and nervous system symptoms which persist for months (longer than normal influenza). | Global | COVID |
| 8/29/2020 | -8 months after listing 1.5% of its shares on the Riyadh Stock Exchange, Aramco was overtaken by Apple as the world’s most valuable listed company. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/29/2020 | -China is entering the next phase of state capitalism (“Xinomics”) involving: (1) tight control over the economic cycle and debt machine (2) more efficient administrative state and (3) blur the boundary between state and private firms. The US Cold War-esque policy of pressure and containment is unlikely to prove effective. | Asia | China |
| 8/29/2020 | -Despite declining IPOs since 2001 and the pandemic, a new wave of tech IPOs is coming (Airbnb, Palantir, DoorDash, Instacart). Many startups/VCs find the traditional process cumbersome and expensive—and fear disappointments (Uber, Lyft) and collapses (WeWork). Thus, they are exploring alternatives: direct listing/banker sets price (used by Spotify, Slack), special purpose acquisition companies/shell companies (Virgin Galactic). Banks/regulators should improve the process. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/29/2020 | -In 1995, nearly 20% off people meet their spouse through work, now it's dropped to around 10%, likely due to ethical questions around power dynamics and objectivity. | Other | |
| 8/29/2020 | -Recent intel that Russia has separated Kaliningrad and Belarus from the Baltic’s power grid prompted the countries to initiate a process to switch their grid west to Europe. The EU and US are footing around three-quarters if the $2B bill. | Europe | Russia |
| 8/29/2020 | -Strong local opposition to Aegis Ashore in Akita Japan convinced the government to scrap the $4.2B purchase. | Asia | Japan |
| 8/29/2020 | -The US exported biker gangs like Hells Angels to Europe, where they have become tangled with the drug trade and battle other ethnic street gangs. | United States | |
| 8/29/2020 | -The normalization of Israel-UAE relations (joining Egypt, Jordan) openly embraces the intelligence sharing and diplomacy that was already occurring. It is a boon for Netanyahu (escapes annexation promise) and MBZ (builds goodwill in Washington), but strips the Palestinians of leverage (undermines pan-Arab “land for peace” demand). It also reflects the outsize influence of the UAE (ME economic center in Dubai, compact but capable army, pragmatic/savvy diplomacy). | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 8/22/2020 | -Global governments have pledged $7T to preserve incomes and jobs, but only ~$10B on a vaccine (for ~$4B doses). Despite WHO efforts, nationalists have largely sunk efforts to pool resources for developing countries. To beat COVID, ~70% of the population must take a vaccine that is ~70% effective (though the FDA will likely approve anything safe and >50% effective). | Global | COVID |
| 8/22/2020 | -New DNA research suggests wooly mammoths coexisted with humans for thousands of years before a rapid population drop (casting doubt on the hypothesis they were hunted to extinction). | Science & Technology | |
| 8/22/2020 | -An electoral analysis finds a DC voter has a one in a trillion odds of tipping the contest, compared to 1-in-10M in New Hampshire. Unsurprisingly, states with more sway tend to have higher turnout. | United States | Politics |
| 8/22/2020 | -Rather than Trump’s impulsive and politically-driven threats to expropriate TikTok, the US would do better to tighten its own privacy laws (protect citizens’ data, embrace encryption, require transparent algorithms). | United States | |
| 8/22/2020 | -Republicans are worried about voter fraud (mail), Democrats are worried about voter suppression (ID laws, purging voter rolls), and both are worried about foreign interference. They should be more concerned about incompetent administration, volunteer shortages, and long lines. | United States | |
| 8/22/2020 | -The US Post Office has problems beyond COVID: (1) a decline in first-class mail; (2) a 2006 law requiring USPS to prepay much of future retirees’ health benefits—a burden imposed on no other federal agency. Trump appointed an inexperienced General who has implemented “efficiencies” which hinder delivery (ahead of a mail-heavy election) and will veto any bill that doesn’t allow him to see USPS’ contract with Amazon for “last mile” deliveries. | United States | |
| 8/15/2020 | -75 years after Nagasaki and Hiroshima, there are still 130,000 living survivors, though their average age is over 83. The government is working to preserve memory of the bombings (cynics say because it distracts from Japan’s own atrocities in WWII). | Asia | Japan |
| 8/15/2020 | -Airline traffic may fall by 50% in 2020. As the industry rebounds, it should seek sounder financial footing and reduced pollution by limiting the power of incumbents to promote robust competition. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/15/2020 | -Already controlling most traditional media, Erdogan signed a law requiring Facebook and Twitter to censor content or else face bans on advertising, fines up to $6M, and bandwidth cuts up to 90%. | Europe | Turkey |
| 8/15/2020 | -China is misbehaving, but Trump’s retaliations (sanctions, ending Hong Kong special relationship, closing Houston consulate) are politically-driven. His policy excludes macro issues (e.g. climate change), refers to cooperation with allies only in loose/aspirational terms, and lacks a strategic framework for how and when to impose pain on China. | Asia | China |
| 8/15/2020 | -Due to a combination of internet resources and softening societal attitudes, LGBTQ people are identifying themselves earlier (age ~14) and coming out earlier (~17). In much of Africa, however, homophobia remains well over 50%. | Global | LGBTQ |
| 8/15/2020 | -In pursuit of economic and security interests, Turkey has been bold in the Middle East, controlling or intervening in parts of Syria, Iraq, and Libya (pro-UN backed gov’t). It has also installed a garrison in Qatar and offered safe haven for Islamists in Yemen’s civil war. While Erdogan has seen political benefits, Egypt, KSA, and Russia are tiring of his escapades. | Europe | Turkey |
| 8/15/2020 | -South Africa banned alcohol to prevent drunks from taking up hospital beds, but restaurants are flaunting the rules by serving alcohol disguised in teacups. | Middle East & Africa | South Africa |
| 8/15/2020 | -With limits to further growth, unwanted attention from trustbusters, and bloated size/declining agility, Google has outgrown its corporate culture. It could become a loose conglomerate of tightly run divisions (e.g. Jack Welch’s GE), spin off non-core businesses and return money to shareholders, or become a glorified venture capital. Even better, it should look to apply its capabilities in innovative ways—like the reinventions of Microsoft in cloud computing and Apple with portable devices. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/15/2020 | -Trump’s frequent use of “not a lot of people know” and “I’m an expert on” may be less narcissism than salesmanship. He creates an air of energy and confidence by repeating himself while he thinks and powering through his blunders. | United States | Politics |
| 8/8/2020 | -A lab developed fabric tubes containing a shear-thickening material (rate-activate tethers, or RATS) which absorb energy and may be used in military/sports helmets to prevent concussions. | Science & Technology | |
| 8/8/2020 | -An assessment of 1,500 soccer matches finds that the share of penalty cards received by the home team rose from 46% with fans to 50% without spectators. While referees may be more fair, home teams are still taking more shots and winning more. | Other | Sports |
| 8/8/2020 | -Contrary to Republican claims that the $600 UI surplus has caused people to stop looking for work, the US’ 10%+ unemployment rate is driven by a lack of jobs (few vacancies, soaring wages). Even with a living wage, people still want dignity, stability, healthcare, and retirement. Two-thirds of states had rising COVID cases when their governors began to reopen. By some estimates, COVID has forced 20% of US small businesses to close. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/8/2020 | -Schools should reopen. COVID poses a low risk to children and the costs of missing school are large: Children learn less, and lose the habit of learning. Poor children, sans WiFi, fall farther behind and are more likely to suffer malnutrition. Parents struggle to return to work (and mothers bear greater burden). | Global | COVID |
| 8/8/2020 | -Special report on mid-western cities finds that recovery tends to grow from the inside out (need town center attractive for live, work, and play). Cities also do better to tap their own resources, rather than rely on federal help or philanthropic donor. Finally, cities do well to bet on universities and hospitals (often the two go together) which help generate a pool of talented workers. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/8/2020 | -USG is investing $13B+ in vaccines, though Trump has shunned international cooperation. AstroZeneca, Moderna, and Pfizer are expected to start late-stage trials before the end of the summer. Pfizer rejected federal money for fear of being slowed down (Moderna squabbled with USG over design of trials). FDA insists it will not cut corners on approval, though it ostensibly approved hydroxychloroquine to avoid embarrassing the president. Other concerns include universal access to the vaccine and anti-vaxxers. | Global | COVID |
| 8/8/2020 | -When the pandemic struck, markets collapsed but the Fed started buying up public debt and promised to purchase some corporate debt. Facing revenue shortfalls, companies raised money by selling shares and issuing new bonds to investors, generating a windfall for Wall Street. Main Street is kept afloat by generous government subsidies, but the outlook is less promising. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/8/2020 | -With an aging population, half of Japan’s commercial shipping fleet could be autonomous by 2040. But there remain serious communication, security, and steering challenges (e.g. whales). | Asia | Japan |
| 8/8/2020 | -With oil prices ($40) well below breakeven (a glimpse into the future), Gulf monarchs can no longer buy-off their citizens with do-nothing public sector jobs and free services. Declines in remittances and tourism exacerbate the problem. Monarchs must expedite plans to diversify their economies or they will face protests. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/1/2020 | -China recently launched the final of 55 satellites in its BeiDou GPS constellation, which began in 1993. The US (USAF) began updating its system with GPS-3 in 1997, but may still take 15 more years to complete. | Asia | China |
| 8/1/2020 | -For the first time, Italy tested all 78 bevy gates closing Venice off to the Adriatic. Set back by a 2014 bribes scandal, the project is 9 years behind schedule, 3x budget, and still not ready for launch. While a bulwark against flooding like that seen in November 2019, Venice is still sinking. One radical idea is to raise the city by pumping water into its aquifer. | Europe | Italy |
| 8/1/2020 | -Iranian nuclear, military, and chemical facilities have suffered seven explosions, fires, and leaks in recent weeks—some perhaps by US/Israeli convert action. Netanyahu may be seeking to use his perceived last year with Trump to pressure Iran. But these tactical “successes” actually demonstrate the strategic failure of Trump’s Iran policy. Since the US abandoned the JCPOA, Iran has enriched 8x uranium, downed a US drone, attacked Saudi oil facilities, and attacked US bases in Iraq. Though Biden supports re-entering JCPOA, the relationship will be hard to reconcile. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 8/1/2020 | -Massive fiscal support has effectively mitigated COVID’s economic impact—despite record high unemployment, poverty has actually fallen. But government stipends can/should not continue indefinitely two reasons: (1) Cost--governments spent ~10% of GDP globally; (2) the economy will be permanently changed by the pandemic. A better approach would be to taper benefits as unemployment falls. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/1/2020 | -Reasons companies struggle with IT: In millions of lines of code, errors are inevitable. Many coders are at least part self-taught, leading to bad habits. Programming requires a mix of hyper-literalness and creativity, and connections between academia and industry are weak. But most importantly, systems rapidly become out of date and expertise moves on--sometimes it’s best to start with a clean-sheet design. | Science & Technology | |
| 8/1/2020 | -Recently released documents reveal Queen Elizabeth was involved in the 1975 controversial sacking of Australian PM Gough Whitlam by governor-general Sir John Kerr. Although the monarchy survived a 1990s referendum, recent polls suggest 62% of Australians would prefer an Australian head of state. | Asia | Australia |
| 8/1/2020 | -Police officers in schools (“School Resource Officers”) proliferated in the 1990s in response to mass shootings, however they may unfairly impact minority students and new research suggests they don’t increase school safety (and should be replaced by unarmed safety monitors and/or social workers). | United States | Policing |
| 7/25/2020 | -Born a church, Istanbul’s Hagia Sophia was turned into a mosque by the Ottomans and a museum by their secular successors. Now, hoping to boost waning popular support, President Erdogan signed a decree to turn it back into a mosque. | Europe | Turkey |
| 7/25/2020 | -Seoul and neighboring Incheon produce nearly half of the country’s wealth, but are congested, expensive, and stressful to live in. To reduce the concentration of politics, wealth, and culture, the government has launched 12 “innovation” cities like Jinju (biotech and aerospace) and Sejong (new administrative capital). To prevent sapping economic vitality from surrounding areas, the government is emphasizing urban regeneration over building towns from scratch. | Asia | Korea |
| 7/25/2020 | -The US-China split in the technology industry is widening. Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and Twitter have rolled back cooperation following the Hong Kong crackdown. China is raising $7B to galvanize SMIC, its home-grown chipmaker. It is happening quicker in software than hardware (more heavily integrated supply chains). | Asia | China |
| 7/25/2020 | -Police unions are uniquely protected on both sides. The right dislikes confronting police, whereas the left is uncomfortable taking on unions. BLM has prompted reform in liberal states like Oregon and California. | United States | Policing |
| 7/25/2020 | -The cash bail (and associated commercial bondsman industry) is unpopular, but alternatives like New Jersey’s algorithms and California’s risk-assessment system can be equally discriminatory. | United States | Policing |
| 7/18/2020 | -Although demand for food delivery services (e.g. GrubHub, Postmates, DoorDash, UberEats) has skyrocketed during the pandemic, bitter competition for market share means few are making much profit. Over time, consolidation may reduce operating costs and permit higher prices. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/18/2020 | -Commercial property investments have been popular for two decades, but as many as 60% of tenants are now behind on rent. In the long-term, more business will shift to e-commerce and companies will embrace teleworking. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/18/2020 | -Having already abandoned the JCPOA, INF, and Open Skies Treaty, the State Dept now accuses Russia and China of violating the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) on nukes. The Nevada test site remains in working condition, but Las Vegas development has expanded, a test could cost $100M+, is unpopular, and would serve no technical or military purpose (supercomputers can simulate with high fidelity, US still has loads of data from tests until 1992). | Europe | Russia |
| 7/18/2020 | -In addition to failing to police hateful/inaccurate content, Facebook is increasingly bending to the will of autocrats in places like Syria by deleting accounts of opposition activists. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/18/2020 | -Nearly two-thirds of the Afghan population is under 25 years old and has no memory of Taliban rule. As American troops depart, the talks between the Taliban and government remain more uncertain than ever—with ongoing disagreements around release of prisoners, ongoing attacks, and schooling for girls. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 7/18/2020 | -Parkinson’s Law: “Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.” Fortunately, work from home eliminates “presenteeism”—the need to be seen as working, allowing some to capture more time for leisure and others driven by guilt to work even harder than before. On the downside, however, driven to appear busy, managers schedule Zoom calls and employees must chime in to be seen and heard. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/18/2020 | -Since the FARC ceasefire in 2012, Cartagena has attracted party/drug tourism. The mayor hopes to use the pandemic to target fewer but richer tourists. He also hopes to spread them out temporally by making holidays more flexible and geographically by building a water park outside the city. | Americas | Colombia |
| 7/18/2020 | -To attract youth, the Olympics are adding skateboarding, surfing, and climbing, but “electronic sports” like Fortnite remain more than twice as popular, and require similar dexterity. | Other | Sports |
| 7/18/2020 | -With Trump bungling COVID/BLM and Biden holding solid leads in midwest battlegrounds, Biden holds a 90% chance of winning in November. His policies include a higher minimum wage, protection for unions, reform of bankruptcy and campaign-finance laws, carbon tax, and building on the ACA by offering a “public option.” Even without a Senate majority, he could reverse many of Trump’s deregulation and immigration policies. In foreign policy, he would pursue arms control, rejoin the Paris Agreement, and hold a “Summit of Democracies.” | United States | Politics |
| 7/18/2020 | -Although Barr has resumed federal executions and the Supreme Court declined to hear a case, public support for capital punishment continues to decline—strongly among youth but even among libertarian conservatives. | United States | Policing |
| 7/11/2020 | -Amazon is well-positioned in e-commerce (40% US market share), logistics, and—especially—cloud computing. But its problems include growing public criticism (working conditions, treatment of third party vendors), financial bloating (asset-heavy, COVID costs are slimming margins), and re-energized competition (Wal-Mart, Target, Costco are catching up). | Business & Economics | |
| 7/11/2020 | -Because COVID hit Italy so rapidly, technocratic PM Conte’s approval rating has surged since imposing heavy lockdown measures. But he may not want to try his hand at election, especially following a recent report that an M5S founder took donations from Hugo Chavez in 2010. | Europe | Italy |
| 7/11/2020 | -Escalating tension between India and China resulted in 20 deaths—the most since 1967. Previous incidents have de-escalated with meetings of generals, but China needs to accept India’s proposal for more detailed negotiations on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). | Asia | China |
| 7/11/2020 | -The COVID crisis is still worsening in Latin America due to derelict leadership, healthcare shortages, and reliance on informal economies. Most states are providing popular subsidies well beyond affordability. | Americas | |
| 7/11/2020 | -The EU is investigating Apple for taking a 30% cut on AppStore subscriptions like Spotify. The CEO of Microsoft, which lost a landmark antitrust case in 2001, claimed Apple and Google have tighter control over smartphones than Microsoft did over PCs (Apple and Google reply that they compete against each other). | Business & Economics | |
| 7/11/2020 | -Trump broke a longstanding gentleman’s agreement by nominating an American—his NSC chief and Venezuela policy architect Mauricio Claver-Carone—to run the Inter-American Development Bank. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 7/11/2020 | -Bolton’s book confirms Trump’s policies are driven by re-election (asked Ukraine, China for help), reveals his ignorance (thought Finland was in Russia; didn’t know UK had nukes), and provides colorful details (Pompeo called Trump “full of shit”). Bolton’s testimony probably wouldn’t have impeached Trump, but provides more fodder for the election cycle. | United States | Politics |
| 7/11/2020 | -Trump’s bombastic threat to remove 15% of troops from Germany for “free-riding” is ill-advised, as Stuttgart remains a critical cog in America’s global military machine (EUCOM/AFRICOM HQ, several garrisons, hospital). | United States | Military |
| 7/11/2020 | -Clarence Thomas grew up impoverished and embraced black nationalism until receiving admission to Yale Law under a racial quota (“the soft underbelly of my career”). Despite some idiosyncrasies, he disdains affirmative action, abortion and gay rights (but supports gun rights). Despite Conservative calls to let Trump replace him he appears to want to stick it out (similar to Ginsburg under Obama). | United States | |
| 7/4/2020 | -Britain formally left the UK on January 31 but remains in a transition period until the end of 2020. Talks remain deadlocked on fisheries, governance, and competition. Johnson hopes the EU will cave against the deadline, but it was UK that caved last time, accepting a customs border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The government also hopes COVID will mask the economic pain of Brexit, but each crisis hits different parts of the economy (small shops v. big exporters). He should instead invoke a clause that allows him to extend the transition period two more years. | Europe | UK |
| 7/4/2020 | -China is using the pandemic to distract from escalating SCS activity, including sinking, ramming, and harassing fishing boats. Fearing China will soon declare an ADIZ covering the entire “9-dash line,” the US sent three carriers. | Asia | China |
| 7/4/2020 | -Directly and indirectly, tourism accounts for about 13% of Italy’s GDP, concentrated in certain areas. The government is trying incentivize Italians to take staycations this summer. | Europe | Italy |
| 7/4/2020 | -Japanese workplaces are conducive to the worst sort of abusive bosses because hierarchies are rigid/deeply rooted, and it is difficult to change jobs. The government recently passed anti-harassment legislation. | Asia | Japan |
| 7/4/2020 | -Researchers at Columbia University developed an app to help identify the cryptic symbols used by extremists at protests. Overt racism is declining, but implicit bias remains strong. Test your implicit bias at implicit.harvard.edu. | Science & Technology | |
| 7/4/2020 | -With a spurt of short-range tests and the explosion of a liaison office, North Korea is trying to manufacture a fresh crisis. Might be seeking economic concessions or to strengthen domestic image. | Asia | Korea |
| 7/4/2020 | -Not all statues who offend modern morality should be removed, but each must be judged on if their contributions outweighed their sins. Statues should be taken down by public consensus rather than by mob (Edward VII in Mumbai was thrown into the zoo). | United States | Race |
| 6/27/2020 | -NASA’s contract with SpaceX to deliver two astronauts to the ISS is emblematic of a more routine era of human spaceflight and a model for a public-private partnership. Dragons carry up to seven people (versus three) and even have toilets. NASA didn’t give SpaceX an open checkbook, but a series of contracts on rockets and capsules with the promise of a future market. | Science & Technology | |
| 6/27/2020 | -Police reform is hard because (1) most forces are local (18,000 law enforcement agencies, only 65 are federal; mayors appoint city chiefs, voters elect county sheriffs); (2) police patrol a heavily armed country (US officer death rate is 100x Britain); (3) police are asked to serve a broad range of functions (school security, mental health counseling, drug overdoses). Success requires a multi-faceted approach: | United States | Policing |
| 6/27/2020 | -From 1970-2014, blacks in poverty fell from 47% to 27%, but remains 3x the white rate and increasingly geographically concentrated which deepens disadvantage. Three measures have worsened: employment, incarceration, and births to unmarried couples. | United States | Race |
| 6/27/2020 | -Protests in response to the brutal murder of George Floyd represent a genuine and legitimate frustration over a decades-long failure to reform police practices; being killed by police is now the sixth most common death for young black men. At least 11 protestors have died and nearly 10,000 arrested. Protests which devolve into looting and violence like MLK in 1968 will undermine their purpose. Protest movements often antagonize the moderates needed to pass meaningful reform, but Tea Party and Women’s March did help galvanize voter turnout. | United States | Policing |
| 6/20/2020 | -A new Chinese security law will create still-to-be-defined crimes of subversion and secession, by which it can base secret police to lock up dissidents in Hong Kong. It was timed to prevent any chance of a “color revolution” while the world is distracted by COVID and protests are difficult. This end to “one party, two systems” has broader implications for Taiwan (US should renew its security commitment). | Asia | China |
| 6/20/2020 | -America’s COVID mortality rate is actually better than France, Netherlands, Italy, and Spain--and its stimulus more generous. But it still scuttled its advantages, including earlier notice and less population density. Trump is not responsible for NYC’s slow lockdown or CDC’s testing snafu, but he showed a remarkable dereliction of leadership by using his bully pulpit to spread misinformation and creating internecine warfare for PPE. | United States | COVID |
| 6/20/2020 | -As many as 20% of US colleges may go bankrupt following the pandemic. Small colleges (under 1,000 students) were already battling declining enrollment wrought by decreased fertility, but will now face reductions in international students and state funding (and lawsuits over tele-learning). | Global | Education |
| 6/20/2020 | -Google claims that YouTube’s auto-deletion of anti-CCP comments (referencing Wumao, or CCP propagandists) was a mistake, but refuses to explain why. It was likely a flaw in a machine learning algorithm, a challenge that will continue to arise. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/20/2020 | -Russia is leading a resurgence in use of private security forces around the world. Wagner Group, run by Putin’s friend, is active in Mozambique (gas), Central African Republic (diamond), Guinea (aluminum), Libya (oil), and Sudan. Mercenaries are cheap, flexible, and offer plausible deniability. UN treaty has previously banned mercenaries, but is softening its stance with a code of conduct encouraging ethics clauses written into contracts. | Europe | Russia |
| 6/20/2020 | -To build his fragile government, Netanyahu has created a record 34 ministries, generating many with conflicting portfolios (e.g. minister of education and minister of higher education) to buy political loyalty. In addition to inevitable turf battles, some fear the more ministers he has, the less he must listen to any of them. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 6/20/2020 | -Western countries should mandate masks—they cost next to nothing and preliminary studies suggest even a tea towel over the face can block 60% of droplets. | Global | COVID |
| 6/20/2020 | -Given his structural advantage in the electoral college, Trump may only need 46% of the popular vote in November, which is only 3 points above his approval rating. | United States | Politics |
| 6/13/2020 | -A year ago, the US forbid its tech companies from selling to Huawei, but loopholes allowed firms to continue supplying Huawei from overseas factories. In May, America announced new rules stipulating no American semiconductor equipment can be used for Huawei’s products. Likely to spark retaliation against US companies (e.g. Apple), it will make the industry less efficient and could cause more countries to avoid business with the regulatory-ridden US (like the ITAR-free push in aerospace). | Business & Economics | |
| 6/13/2020 | -Afghanistan reached a new power-sharing agreement in which Ghani will remain president and Abdullah will lead peace negotiations as chair of the council for national reconciliation. Like his 2014 “chief executive” position, it will give Abdullah a high profile, but less of a role in day-to-day government. His fortunes depend on the outcome of talks. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 6/13/2020 | -Big Pharma had grown notorious for price gouging, secretiveness, and neglect of global health problems. Despite massive profit, investors worried about public backlash and business models which relied too much of rent-seeking over innovation. But the pandemic has reminded the world of its ability to innovate and provide drugs on vast scale. A global agreement could prevent nationalization of the vaccine. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/13/2020 | -The CDC reached peak global prestige in spearheading the response to the Ebola outbreak, but tight budgets, a testing snafu, and an indifferent White House has left them on the sidelines of the COVID pandemic. | United States | COVID |
| 6/13/2020 | -The longer lockdowns continue, the more likely they are to cost lives than save them—especially in weaker developing economies. For the first time since 1998, extreme poverty is rising. Tourism destinations are expecting 25% of normal business. Social distancing can be sufficient (e.g. Sweden, Liberty University). Greater testing allows more agile and focused policies at a local level. | Global | COVID |
| 6/13/2020 | -White supremacist protestors sport Hawaiian shirts referencing the “Big Luau,” or armed insurrection against the government which celebrates pig (police) roasts. Most adhere to “accelerationism,” an odd marriage of Marxism and neo-Nazism which holds that the contradictions of the economic and political order will cause it to collapse. Most of their recruitment occurs through online gaming. | United States | Terrorism |
| 6/6/2020 | -Bolivia was supposed to hold a rerun of last October’s fraudulent elections on May 3, but interim President Anez has imposed a strict lockdown and resisted setting a new date. After initially promising to step down after the election, she has since decided to run herself. Logistically unable to handle distributed or mail voting, many Bolivians may stay home—which will likely lead losers to challenge the result. | Americas | Bolivia |
| 6/6/2020 | -China has every right to build upstream dams on the Brahmaputra (to India) and Mekong (to SE Asia) rivers, where it’s built 11 and has plans for 8 more. But it could at least share data on water levels to help downstream farmers accommodate and plan. | Asia | China |
| 6/6/2020 | -Despite dire warnings from America’s meat industry leaders, the $8T global food supply chain is proving nimble. While restaurants are hurting, grocery stores remain stocked and logistical gears churning. Governments should stay out of the way, except to ensure safety and prevent consolidation. | Global | COVID |
| 6/6/2020 | -In a power sharing agreement, Netanyahu will remain PM until handing over power to Benny Gantz in November 2021. Netanyahu’s party is split on whether to push forward on annexation with Trump in power, or focus on the COVID-battered economy. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 6/6/2020 | -In Miami last September, Juan Guaido advocated pursuing “all options,” and signed an initial contract with US private security CEO Jordan Goudreau for a farcical plan to kidnap Maduro and bring him to the US. Guaido says he cancelled the contract, and the CIA apparently tried to kill the plan, but the doomed effort went ahead—securing Maduro a symbolic victory. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 6/6/2020 | -New START expires in February—the US wants China to join. Long secretive about their arsenal, China’s incentive is to gain military prestige and preserve transparency of the US arsenal. But Russia wants UK/France included, and China frets that revealing its smaller arsenal could leave it susceptible to a bolt out of the blue (BOOB) attack. Any prospect for a three-way deal should start small and focus not on warheads, but on areas of near-equal strength like intermediate-range missiles or delivery systems over 500km. | Europe | Russia |
| 6/6/2020 | -One estimate based on surveys, historical patterns and stockmarket signals found 4 in 10 American jobs lost in the pandemic will not return. Consumers may emerge from lockdown with new habits, spending less on restaurants, cinemas and travel, and more on deliveries, home-improvement and video-streaming. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/6/2020 | -Space X, Dynetics/ULA, and Blue Origin/LM/NG/Draper are competing to build the next Human Lander System to take the first woman to the moon by 2024. | Science & Technology | |
| 6/6/2020 | -The stockmarket recovery has shaky foundations. Investors have nowhere else to put their money (bond yields are low), the growth is disproportionately in a handful of tech giants. Watch out for a second wave of infections, lingering corporate austerity, fraud encouraged by extreme conditions, and the risk of political backlash against corporate survivors. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/6/2020 | -While Taiwan is the only country in Asia to permit gay marriage, it is also one of the few non-Muslim countries in which adultery is a crime—punishable by a fine and up to a year in prison. | Asia | Taiwan |
| 6/6/2020 | -Every DoJ reflects a president’s policy preferences to some extent (Obama’s pushed voting rights), but statutes/norms give the Dept unique independence (Obama’s backed DoMA). Trump has now found his Roy Cohn in Barr, who has spun, attacked, & undermined the Russia investigation, intervened to reduce Stone’s sentence, and dropped the case against Flynn. | United States | Politics |
| 5/30/2020 | -China should support a transparent investigation to understand how the virus jumped from bats to humans; otherwise conspiracy theories could undermine global cooperation and transparency. | Asia | China |
| 5/30/2020 | -Given the importance of education and building social skills, inequality of virtual learning, and low risk of children spreading COVID, schools should be first to reopen. | Global | COVID |
| 5/30/2020 | -In his latest attempt to modernize, MBS banned flogging and executing people for crimes they committed as children. Capital punishment is declining everywhere except the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, and KSA make up 80% of executions outside China). | Asia | China |
| 5/30/2020 | -Many businesses will emerge from lockdowns short of cash, with strained balance sheets and weak demand. Air travel will not recover for 2-3 years. By one estimate, over 300 department stores may go under by the end of 2021. Investment will continue to fall not just to conserve cash, but also because risk cannot be priced (also why the recent stock market rally has weak foundations). | Business & Economics | |
| 5/30/2020 | -Scientists should continue using preprints to share ideas quickly, while their papers await proper peer review. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/30/2020 | -Surprisingly, smokers in France have been disproportionately low in hospitalization for COVID. The hypothesis—currently being studied—is that nicotine may blunt the symptoms. | Europe | France |
| 5/30/2020 | -Tech’s spiritual center of gravity is moving from San Francisco (Facebook, Alphabet: advertising, smart phone sales) to Seattle (Amazon, Microsoft: subscriptions, e-commerce, business infrastructure). | Science & Technology | |
| 5/23/2020 | -As governments consider reopening, they need to communicate to citizens it will not be a return to normal. Without a vaccine or treatment, testing and contact-tracing remain vital to keeping the virus at bay. Lockdowns don’t beat COVID, they only reset the clock. Masks, distancing, and quarantining travelers remain important. | Global | COVID |
| 5/23/2020 | -Boardrooms are deciding whether to continue paying dividends. Three categories: (1) Firms with bespoke or disproportionately large bail-outs (e.g. airlines) should automatically cut them. Banks too, should focus their liquidity on loans. (2) Firms that are stretched but not broken may be tempted to take debt to maintain dividends, but should not. (3) Firms that have strong balance sheets (e.g. tech) should continue, supporting investors. | Business & Economics | |
| 5/23/2020 | -By the next pandemic, vaccinology, diagnostics, and treatment will improve. Researchers may develop mRNA vaccines which use genetic code to give your cells instructions on how to mount an immune response. Within a few months, they may have mass-market tests people can conduct at home using a swab. And renewed focus on antivirals could generate large, diverse libraries of drugs for better treatment. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/23/2020 | -COVID provides cover for strongmen to consolidate power,giving them an excuse to ban protests, delay elections, ban “fake news” and trace citizens’ contacts. Relief can be selectively distributed, and the media is all consumed with virus coverage. | Global | COVID |
| 5/23/2020 | -Cuba is actually reasonably well-prepared from a health perspective, but ruinous from an economic perspective. Tajikistan and Turkmenistan claim they have zero cases, and continue to hold sporting events. | Americas | Cuba |
| 5/23/2020 | -Government debt is not like household debt; most it owed to its own citizens (itself). What matters is the cost of servicing, which is cheap as long as interest rates stay low. In countries that print their own money, central banks can hold down rates by buying bonds. Once the virus abates, however, a price-and-interest-rate spiral could result when a burst of demand runs up against wrecked supply chains. Governments should continue emergency spending for now, and try to balance their budgets in the long run. | Business & Economics | |
| 5/23/2020 | -OPEC said it would slash production to mitigate a price war between Russian and KSA, but it is likely to fall apart. And the COVID crisis may further dampen long-term oil demand, as millions adjust to living without fossil fuels. The oil industry should begin the adjustments required if the planet is to deal with climate change. | Business & Economics | |
| 5/23/2020 | -To reopen safely, America needs 500K tests/day to let local health authorities swiftly catch and isolate asymptomatic transmitters. We are currently around 150K/day, and 20% are positive (high—suggesting many cases have gone undetected). In addition, CDC wants 300,000 contact tracers—they only have 2,200. Trump is trying to scapegoat WHO and immigrants (which account for 14% of the population and 30% of doctors). | United States | COVID |
| 5/23/2020 | -Voting by mail need not be controversial (all states already use for absentee). More people have been hit by lightning than incidents of fraud—and the alternative of cancelling elections is much worse. Trump voted by mail in the FL Republican primary, but has since denounced it. | United States | |
| 5/16/2020 | -Data on internet use shows a massive surge in work, education, and gaming; modest increases in streaming and online shopping; no change in gambling/porn; and a modest decrease in online dating. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/16/2020 | -Emergency bailouts have a bad rap (USG lost $10B in 2009 GM rescue and Wall Street bailouts left a bitter taste). They can sap productivity and undermine fair competition. Governments should provide blanket offers to all firms of cheap loans and wage support for 3-6 months with a few strings attached. Assistance beyond 6 months should be limited to essential services (telecoms, utilities). | Business & Economics | |
| 5/16/2020 | -Japanese women are protesting antiquated laws mandating high-heels with a #KuToo campaign—a pun on Japanese words for shoes (kutsu) and pain (kutsuu). In March Japan Airlines allowed flight attendants to wear flats and pants. | Asia | Japan |
| 5/16/2020 | -Massive numbers of unemployment claims will only worsen as COVID impacts cascade across industries/supply chains (e.g. retailers can’t pay rent, hurting commercial real estate). The crisis will expedite three trends: (1) quicker adoption of new technology; (2) larger inventory buffers in manufacturing supply chains; and (3) an unwelcome further rise in corporate concentration. | Global | COVID |
| 5/16/2020 | -Medical workers in Italy are facing grim choices with ventilator shortages. The general guidance for medical triage is to prioritize those most likely to survive and with the longest life expectancy. | Europe | Italy |
| 5/16/2020 | -Putin has uncharacteristically vanished from public eye, refusing to declare a state of emergency for fear it would hurt his approval. He has issued no public plan, passing responsibility down to the regional governors he has spent the past 20 years weakening. Capitalizing on the vacuum, opposition leader Navalny is getting ~2M daily views on YouTube. | Europe | Russia |
| 5/16/2020 | -Zoom, whose users have increased from 10M to 200M and stock has increased 49%, was founded in 2011 on the idea that corporate services should be as easy to use as consumer ones. Meetings under 40 minutes and 100 participants are free and its 17 data centers around the world are built to support double the expected peak load. But as a consumer-business hybrid, the company has focused much less on privacy and security than old-style corporate-IT firms. | Business & Economics | |
| 5/9/2020 | -America has about 200K of the 1M ventilators needed to pump oxygenated air into a patient’s lungs. Engineers are developing DIY designs (e.g. modified windshield wiper motor and Ambu bag), but have serious risks, including overinflation of the lungs. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/9/2020 | -Boeing claims $15B in liquidity and its Defense and Services arms will still bring in $5B in profit this year. But without deliveries it loses ~$4B/month. Mnuchin seems to want the government to receive equity for special bailout terms, which Boeing has so far resisted. | Business & Economics | |
| 5/9/2020 | -Congress’ $2T goes a long way towards government’s two primary roles: (1) Protecting the incomes of those unable to work for no fault of their own by enhancing unemployment benefits, loans (with wages/rent forgiven), and a $1200 subsidy for most Americans; and (2) Ensuring growth bounces back when daily life resumes via loose Fed policy, including unlimited buying of government and mortgage debt. The bailouts of some “too big to fail” companies is critical for economic continuity (and no firm could’ve been prepared for this), but unlimited loans to big corporations shifts the burden from investors to taxpayers and risks exacerbating inequality. | Business & Economics | |
| 5/9/2020 | -USMC’s new 10-year force redesign aims to personnel to 170,000 while slashing artillery and aircraft (F-35s cut by 1/3 and tanks eliminated). In their place comes a commando-like infantry force with nimbler weapons: drone squadrons will double in number and rocket batteries will triple. This is optimized for small groups moving quickly through Pacific Islands, but ill-prepared for the next Middle Eastern crisis. | United States | Military |
| 5/9/2020 | -Sanitation and distancing only go so far to preventing spread of COVID for the 2M Americans in prison. Sheriffs have responded by reducing arrests by 50%+ and releasing nonviolent offenders in jail awaiting trial. Older inmates are most susceptible to COVID and least likely to reoffend, supporting broader efforts to reduce prison populations. | United States | Policing |
| 5/2/2020 | -Cancelling sports worsens stir craziness; small numbers of athletes could be tested and cocooned. Romans understood the importance of “bread and circus”—keeping the public fed and entertained. | Other | Sports |
| 5/2/2020 | -COVID-19 Containment Approach: Mitigation (“flattening the curve”) curbs the pandemic, suppression (e.g. lockdowns) aims to stop it. Keeping suppression low leaves many people susceptible to the virus, meaning cycles of lockdowns may be required. The keys are mass testing (which allows focused reactions), investing in healthcare surge capacity, and using technology (for lock-downs as well as tracking the spread). | Global | COVID |
| 5/2/2020 | -Economic Approach: Global GDP could contract near 5% this quarter (likely ending Australia’s 28-years of growth), hopefully stabilizing by year-end. Traditional economic responses (lowering interest rates) stimulate demand but don’t address crisis. To protect vulnerable, governments should subsidize sick pay and health insurance. To keep companies afloat, governments guarantee cheap funding for banks to lend. Current US proposals to spend ~5% GDP are an appropriate magnitude. | Global | COVID |
| 5/2/2020 | -India, which lost around 6% of its population in 1918, has fared well thus far (limited traffic with China, Iran, Italy) but remains a ripe target following decades of under investment in public health. The taboo around social contact is old hat for conservative Muslims, who greet each other with a hand on the heart and a slight bow of the head. | Asia | India |
| 5/2/2020 | -Preliminary results suggest transmission becomes only slightly less likely in hot and humid weather. UK is hesitant to implement draconian measures too soon for fear of economic cost and lock-in fatigue (South Koreans are already growing restless). | Asia | Korea |
| 5/2/2020 | -Testing: Most COVID testing is genetic, in which a swab from the back of the nose or throat is sampled, replicated, and compared against the virus’ RNA code. A serological alternative looks for antibodies in blood samples and can identify recently recovered/asymptomatic patients. The first genome sequence for SARS-COV-2 was published January 10, meaning initial vaccines could begin efficacy testing in July. | Global | COVID |
| 5/2/2020 | -United States: The British Imperial College model (R0=2.4, 5 days from infection to symptoms) found COVID-19 could kill 1.1m Americans. About 5% require intensive care; fatality rate is probably around 1% overall (5x standard flu), though near 20% for those over 80. 17% of Americans are 65+ (23% of Italians, who also have many three generation households). US has 3x ICU beds per person as Italy. The greater challenge is staffing (other specialties are cross-training and recently retired doctors could be drafted). Trump has been slow to act, leaving states to manage independently. Further, his bickering and tit-for-tat expulsion of Chinese journalists is inauspicious for crisis cooperation. | Global | COVID |
| 4/25/2020 | -Nepal is considering raising the cost of a license to climb Everest from $11,000 to $35,000 to reduce congestion near the summit (but preserve much-needed revenue). | Asia | Nepal |
| 4/25/2020 | -Oil prices crashed because COVID-19 cut global demand at precisely the same time KSA decided to launch a price war against high-cost producers. | Business & Economics | |
| 4/25/2020 | -Studies suggest more generous sick pay leads to extra skiving, but rather less transmission. Democrats have long proposed statutory sick leave. The internet was designed to handle the shift from corporate networks to home broadband. | Global | |
| 4/25/2020 | -The Russian Duma approved a constitutional amendment resetting Putin’s consecutive terms to zero. By 2036, Putin will be 83 and have ruled Russia for 36 years—as many as Ivan the Terrible. His popularity has dropped since winning 77% of the vote in 2018 (with Alexis Navalny barred) due to a weak economy and badly-needed attempt to raise the age to receive pensions. | Europe | Russia |
| 4/25/2020 | -To prevent export of its famous wagyu beef, Japan is criminalizing the export of wagyu eggs or sperm with up to ten years in prison or $92,000 fine. | Asia | Japan |
| 4/25/2020 | -While Benny Gantz urgently tries to form a government, Netanyahu (whose trial has been pushed back to May 24) has taken the controversial step of using mobile-phone surveillance technology, normally reserved for CT operations, to track virus carriers. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 4/18/2020 | -As part of his “Grand National Debate” response to the gilets jaunes, Macron created a “citizen’s assembly” selected by randomly generated telephone numbers to focus on how to make green policy palatable, efficient, and fair. They’ve already begun working on practical proposals, but forging consensus will not be easy. | Europe | France |
| 4/18/2020 | -Despite being indicted, Netanyahu’s aggressive-to-the-point-of-dirty campaigning (accusing Gantz of mental illness, Iranian ties, and infidelity) delivered him the lead in the third election in under a year. It remains to be seen if he can form a government. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 4/18/2020 | -Following the removal of three Wall Street Journal reporters from China, the State Department placed a 100-person cap on Chinese reporters in the US, meaning up to 60 Chinese nationals will be forced to leave. Opponents of retaliation argue we should set an example for free press. | Asia | China |
| 4/18/2020 | -Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald renounces IRA connections and has no history of militant service (unlike her predecessor Gerry Adams), but a lightly-armed IRA still maintains a loose organizations and is blamed for killing a journalist last year. | Europe | Ireland |
| 4/18/2020 | -Whereas previous directed energy weapons were powered by chemical reactions (e.g. YAL-1), modern ones are solid-state crystal (e.g. naval) which require less power. Progress has resulted from advances in materials science and adaptive optics. | Science & Technology | |
| 4/18/2020 | -OMB has been Trump’s key policy toolbox—helped him fund the wall and implement his deregulatory effort. Mick Mulvaney is officially both the Chief of Staff and still director of OMB—though OMB is operationally run by Russell Vought, VP of Heritage Action. | United States | Politics |
| 4/11/2020 | -A new company, AST & Science says it can link satellites directly to ordinary smartphones (unlike SpaceX, OneWeb, and Amazon, which use ground stations as gateways). The large satellites will be a radio repeater relaying signal between the handset and existing antennas on the ground connected to cellular networks. Vodaphone and Samsung have already invested. | Science & Technology | |
| 4/11/2020 | -Bezos subscribes a 1970s theory advocating moving industry to orbit (re: Blue Origin) so the earth can be repaired and preserved (re: new $10B Bezos Earth Fund). Wind, solar, and electric vehicles are already well-funded; better to focus on de-risking things markets will not yet invest in (e.g. full-scale pilot plants for emissions-free steel-smelting and concrete-making, farms that maximize crop yields and carbon storage). | Science & Technology | |
| 4/11/2020 | -Despite fears of a “techlash,” Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft are each worth over $1T. While some fear a speculative bubble, the bigger risk is an alarming concentration of economic and political power (opportunity remains large, regulations minimal). | Business & Economics | |
| 4/11/2020 | -America’s total student debt ($1.5T) is larger than the national borrowing of most countries. Sanders wants to pay off all; Warren would cover up to $50K; Biden/Bloomberg have income-linked undergraduate repayment schemes which eliminate impoverishment and free graduates to take early career risks. | United States | Education |
| 4/11/2020 | -A dozen states passed Child Victims laws removing the statute of limitations for filing civil lawsuits against sexual abusers and affiliated organizations. Boy Scouts of America faces about 275 suits on accusations dating back to the 1940s and hundreds of millions in liabilities. The decision to welcome gay/transgender ended its relationship with (and revenue from) the LDS Church. While unlikely to go away, it declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy and may have to resort to selling property. | United States | |
| 4/4/2020 | -After five months of counting, Abdullah was declared winner of the Afghani election. Just as in 2014, Ghani contested the election, which had only 10% turnout. Now barely on speaking terms, the two men have ruled out any negotiated power-sharing mechanism. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 4/4/2020 | -English has been the language of instruction in nearly all Singaporean schools since 1987, to reinforce its global edge. But it has nearly wiped out its South Chinese mother tongues—Cantonese, Hakka, and Hokkien. | Asia | Singapore |
| 4/4/2020 | -Japan 2019 Q4 GDP fell over 6% due to a nasty confluence of a typhoon, the coronavirus, and a misguided tax increase. The government announced a stimulus to right the ship before the Olympics in July. | Asia | Japan |
| 4/4/2020 | -Trump’s open disdain for Africa (“shithole countries”, “Nambia”, “handbag lady” ambassador to SA) has left a policy vacuum that each ambassador has filled with their personal priorities. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 4/4/2020 | -While banned in China, the CCP increasingly uses Twitter to shape global narratives about China outside the country (e.g. unity against coronavirus). | Asia | China |
| 3/28/2020 | -Apple faces several challenges in China: trade war damaged brand, coronavirus disrupting both supply chains and sales, and at odds with CCP over privacy (under pressure, removed VPN apps in China). | Asia | China |
| 3/28/2020 | -Driven by a labor shortage, Poland’s PiS government has accepted more immigrants than any other European country over the past two years (primarily Ukrainian). They should heed lessons from Germany (temporary workers don’t leave, and prepare for cultural backlash). | Europe | Poland |
| 3/28/2020 | -North Ireland’s unionist status was long been cemented by a Protestant majority and UK financial/military backing. Four factors make Irish unification plausible in the medium-term: (1) 56% of North opposes Brexit which will change identity and economics; (2) Catholics outnumber Protestants in North for the first time and Irish Catholics more liberal (legalized contraception, gay marriage); (3) Aggressively pro-unification Sinn Fein won the Irish election; and (4) the 1998 Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement stipulates North can rejoin with essentially two referenda. | Europe | UK |
| 3/28/2020 | -Unqualified Trump Fed nominee Judy Shelton questions whether central banks should exist, advocates a return to the gold standard, and her stance on interest rates is politically-driven (warned Obama decreases would cause “ruinous inflation”). | United States | Politics |
| 3/21/2020 | -Advertisers frequently use infrared to alter ads in sports stadiums; in the future they could target audiences based on demographic profile or device of choice (e.g. Apple users generally better off than Android). | Other | Sports |
| 3/21/2020 | -CCTV captured a Kenyan MP emerge from a nightclub at 7am and shoot a DJ through the neck after an argument over penis size (he says he mistook him for an assassin). Released on bail, it is emblematic of an increasingly corrupt legal system. | Middle East & Africa | Kenya |
| 3/21/2020 | -China’s ten-day new year holiday extension for COVID-19 has expired, but not everyone is returning to work (gov’t is encouraging WFH). One in ten workers showed up at Apple-supplier Foxconn, and the company began manufacturing its own facemasks. | Asia | China |
| 3/21/2020 | -Duterte cancelled a military pact with the US permitting joint exercises in the Philippines. Remains unclear if a strategic pivot to China or an irascible response to a visa denial of his former police chief who led the bloody war on drugs. | Asia | Philippines |
| 3/21/2020 | -Executive search, or headhunting, is growing due to (1) ever broader required skillsets (e.g. physically fit to withstand workload, comfortable with media, and—increasingly—”woke”); (2) rise of private equity means greater churn at firms subject to buy-outs; (3) emerging market firms moving towards professional management; and (4) boards urging succession planning years in advance. Sometimes use former intelligence specialist firms (e.g. Hakluyt) to tease out ethical/moral probity. | Business & Economics | |
| 3/21/2020 | -Fortune 500 CEOs make a median $13M/year; about 10% retire or are fired/year. Studies suggest the quality of an American firm’s leadership explains about 15% of the variance in profitability. Their key lever is capital allocation, which is increasingly going toward intangibles. | Business & Economics | |
| 3/21/2020 | -Genes can tell ancestors and susceptibility to disease (maybe someday even personality, intelligence). But there are growing databases of other chemicals (metabolites) we shed in breath, urine, and sweat which reveal diet, exercise, religion, etc. | Science & Technology | |
| 3/21/2020 | -Landmines channel opposing armies into vulnerable terrain, but US Forces have rarely used since 1991. Trump revoked Obama vow to limit use to the Korean peninsula. This permits development and production of new devices (Pentagon claims it only possesses non-persistent landmines which self-destruct or deactivate within 30 days). | Asia | Korea |
| 3/21/2020 | -President Trump is reportedly obsessed with how ugly the FBI HQ is, but opposes it leaving for fear the site could become competition for Trump Hotel. | Other | |
| 3/21/2020 | -Since Ben-Gurion, Israeli buses have not operated on Sabbath/Shabbat (Friday-Saturday night). But strong demand has led to popular private networks, which Netanyahu must oppose to retain support of Orthodox coalition partners. Next election is March 2. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 3/21/2020 | -The UN is decent at peacekeeping (maintaining low casualties), but bad at peacemaking (0-for-13 in ME envoys since 2011). The UNSC remains divided and Turkey and UAE suffer no penalty for violating arms embargoes on Libya. | Global | |
| 3/21/2020 | -US property commission fees run 5-6% (three times the OECD average). Unlike others, US sellers usually pay fees to both own agent and the buyer’s; meaning agents acting on behalf of buyers have incentive to steer clients toward high fees. It is an industry crying out for technological disruption; although Zillow and Redfin have made inroads, fees have not budged. DOJ trustbusters are taking a fresh look, and should seek greater fairness and transparency. | Business & Economics | |
| 3/21/2020 | -All of the 2020 Democrats are campaigning to the left of 2012 Obama and 2016 Clinton (e.g. climate change, free trade), but Sanders and Warren are radical. They are unlikely to beat Trump—or accomplish much if they do. Bloomberg has spent $255M, more than the rest of the field combined. Buttigieg: “Medicare for all who want it”; increased subsidies for college; $2T towards environment; $15/hr minimum wage; EITC expansion; legalize marijuana; carbon tax. | United States | Politics |
| 3/21/2020 | -Though unable to repeal the ACA, Congress abolished the individual mandate penalty leading Republican state AG’s to sue arguing this essentially nullified the law. Now, the President extols his protection against pre-existing conditions while his own DOJ is pushing to eliminate that very protection. | United States | Healthcare |
| 3/7/2020 | -Based on Spotify valence scores and listening data, February is the saddest month while July is the happiest. Also, Peru listens to the happiest music while Hong Kong/the US listens to the saddest. | Other | |
| 3/7/2020 | -China not only built a ten-story hospital in four days but is employing prisoners in Hong Kong round the clock to boost face mask production by as much as 60%. | Asia | China |
| 3/7/2020 | -Controlling 70% of the Yemeni population, the Houthis are consolidating their power and establishing a theocratic state modeled on Iran. Shia, they share the “death to America” flag of Hezbollah. Many Yemenis initially supported their anti-Saudi rhetoric, but are concerned by increasingly Taliban-esque rule. | Middle East & Africa | Yemen |
| 3/7/2020 | -Ecuadorean President Moreno won popularity by turning on his former president Correa for corruption, but has been eroded by weak growth and austerity. Correa’s future influence depends on the outcome of his trial this week. | Americas | Ecuador |
| 3/7/2020 | -Initially welcoming, Turks now want Syrian refugees to go home. The government had plans to resettle up to half of them in areas wrested from Kurds last year, but they only took a third of what they wanted. | Europe | Turkey |
| 3/7/2020 | -Norway nearly self-sustainable off renewable energy, but its economy still dependent on oil exports. It’s trying to change this by subsidizing eco-friendly technology startups; and last year announced it would sell shares in its $1.1T sovereign wealth fund in oil and gas exploration companies. | Europe | Norway |
| 3/7/2020 | -Singapore created a government office to monitor for fake news. It only blocks sites that refuse to publish corrections, however it has already been accused of interfering with interpretations of unemployment statistics ahead of the next election. | Asia | Singapore |
| 3/7/2020 | -Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the IRA, is increasingly popular with young people who support their leftist platform and don’t remember their support for violence. | Europe | Ireland |
| 2/22/2020 | -Despite the tragic death of a 13yo, the Thai government continues to support child boxing as a path out of poverty and tourist attraction. | Asia | Thailand |
| 2/22/2020 | -Iraqi president Mahdi resigned in 2019, but remains as a caretaker facing growing anti-government (and anti-Iranian influence) protests which have killed over 600 people. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 2/22/2020 | -Pakistan originally supported the Taliban in Afghanistan, until Pakistani insurgents (TTP) launched a bloody terror campaign. This triggered a Pakistani army counteroffensive against Pashtun areas (flattened towns, created checkpoints). This week they arrested a 25yo student who started a movement against army abuses. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 2/22/2020 | -Paris votes for a new mayor March 15-22, and Macron’s En Marche party looks disorganized with two candidates running (one has since been expelled from the party but vows to continue running as an independent). | Europe | France |
| 2/22/2020 | -Peruvian president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski resigned for corruption in 2018, leaving Martin Vizcarra in a battle with a Fujimori-dominated congress. In September 2019, Vizcarra dissolved congress (constitutionally questionable but popular) and in a January 2020 election crushed the fujimoristas. But Vizcarra remains too weak to get much done before a general election in 2021. | Americas | Peru |
| 2/22/2020 | -Scientists have long struggled to determine the age of fingerprints, but two scientists are measuring products associated with oxidation to get estimates within 24 hours. | Science & Technology | |
| 2/22/2020 | -The Chinese government incentivizes investment in Special Economic Zones outside China. They are building economic clout, but do little for locals and often fuel anti-Chinese sentiment. | Asia | China |
| 2/22/2020 | -The Coronavirus likely originated in bats and passed through mammals ending in Wuhan’s wet market. China’s scientists effectively detected it, sequenced its genome, and licensed diagnostic kits. China’s politicians denied the risk and let 1m infectious people leave before implementing the announced quarantine. It may be no more deadly than seasonal influenza, but there is a risk it becomes a recurrent seasonal infection. | Asia | China |
| 2/22/2020 | -Trump’s ME peace plan lets Israel formally annex the settlements, hand on the Jordan valley, maintain control of the holy sites and reject Palestinian refugees. It gives greenlights Netanyahu (or Gantz) to take so much territory that a coherent two-state solution is all but impossible. That may soon leave Israel with a choice: give the Palestinians equal rights and watch as they multiply and outvote Jews, or treat them as second-class citizens and formally become an apartheid state. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 2/22/2020 | -Use of puberty-blocking medication among children 9-14 who feel gender dysphoria is growing 50% per year. Studies find that around 85% of children—supported by counseling—were happy with their sex once they emerged from puberty (many are either gay or have separate mental conditions). The pills should not be banned (as some Republicans want), but used sparingly and come with additional education on risks (e.g. sterility). | Science & Technology | |
| 2/22/2020 | -With any health outbreak (SARS, MERS, Zika, Ebola, and Swine Flu), officials must determine lethality (usually overestimated at first because early cases were bad enough for hospital) and contagiousness (look for patterns in cases). Airport checks are primarily symbolic; time and money is better spent containing spread at hospitals. Locking down large areas (as Wuhan) may buy valuable time, but is untested and could backfire if people try to escape the quarantine. | Science & Technology | |
| 2/22/2020 | -In 2018, the Supreme Court blessed the third iteration of Trump’s Muslim ban. In 2019, they allowed the president to move forward with asylum restrictions and to divert federal money for a wall on the Mexican border. In 2020, they voted 5-4 to permit a wealth test for green-card applicants, denying legal status to immigrants deemed likely to need food stamps. | United States | Immigration |
| 2/15/2020 | -A new book examining the future of work proposes “conditional basic income,” in which recipients would have to make some contribution to society, such as providing social care or teaching children. | Business & Economics | |
| 2/15/2020 | -Despite protests, India’s Supreme Court approved Modi’s law to make it easier for adherents of all non-Muslims to acquire citizenship. The BJP also wants to compile a register of all 1.3B citizens to hunt down illegal immigrants (many Muslims don’t have papers and would be sent to camps). While a political boon (distracting from a weak economy), these actions risk violence and damage Indian democracy. | Asia | India |
| 2/15/2020 | -Economist believes Huawei should be allowed to compete (as do Johnson/Merkel). Its products are high-quality and affordable; and excluding it risks delaying 5G. Security risks can be mitigated through technical measures (requiring encryption, defense in depth), trend toward openness (protect new entrants, encourage open source), and international cooperation (sharing inspection findings, setting common criteria). | Business & Economics | |
| 2/15/2020 | -It appears KSA hacked Bezos’ phone via WhatsApp (and Israeli technology), then passed information on his extramarital affair to the KSA-affiliated National Enquirer in 2019. MBS may have been mad over WaPost reporting of Khashoggi. Coupled with MBS’ 2018 anti-corruption drive, this may further discourage foreign investors. | Business & Economics | |
| 2/15/2020 | -Most humans tend to have five intimate friends, 15 or so good friends, around 50 social friends and 150-odd acquaintances. | Science & Technology | |
| 2/15/2020 | -The ISS generates oxygen by electrolysis (splitting H20 using electricity from solar panels). But a group of researchers have worked out how to generate oxygen by electrolyzing regolith, the dusty material that covers the earth’s surface. This could be used for breathable air or rocket fuel production. | Science & Technology | |
| 2/15/2020 | -By the argument Trump can’t be impeached if he didn’t break federal law, he could interfere in domestic investigations, bend foreign policy to damage political rivals, and solicit help from other governments. The Senate is setting dangerous precedents. | United States | Politics |
| 2/15/2020 | -With control of all three branches in Virginia, the Democrats have introduced various modest gun-control bills involving expanding background checks and limiting how many guns someone can buy at once. The most controversial is a “red-flag” law, which would allow family members or the police to petition a court to take guns from somebody who may be dangerous. Nonetheless, the 22,000-person protest in Richmond was peaceful. | United States | |
| 2/9/2020 | -Europe should help the influx of migrants fill the thousands of empty jobs by speeding up paperwork, offering training, and easing requirements. | Europe | |
| 2/9/2020 | -Frontex—the EU’s external border agency—lacks resources and has been under much strain. Thus, the EU is considering creating a new European Border and Coast Guard. A common European asylum system would help. | Europe | |
| 2/9/2020 | -US public enthusiasm is waning for capital punishment. | United States | Capital Punishment |
| 2/9/2020 | -Loosening global visa requirements would bump tourism revenues without major security implications: should shorten the paperwork, share information, and extend the maximum length of stay. | Global | Immigration |
| 2/9/2020 | -Republican candidates’ tax plans have good ideas like deductions for investment and raising the standard deduction (max amount Americans can earn before paying income tax). But huge cuts for high earners will be costly and exacerbate inequality. | United States | |
| 2/8/2020 | -AMLO has slashed spending on everything from child care to medicines, but opened a $19M office for the promotion and development of baseball. Mexico City will host MLB games for the first time since 2004. He hopes for 50 Mexicans in the MLB by 2024 (a fourfold increase). | Americas | Mexico |
| 2/8/2020 | -By one estimate, 40% of Americans have no retirement-account savings at all, suggesting they will rely entirely on Social Security. The SECURE Act will help by encouraging small businesses to offer retirement plans/annuities and allowing wealthy retirees to delay withdrawals from tax favored accounts from 70.5 to 72. | Business & Economics | |
| 2/8/2020 | -In the past 20 years, Putin’s regime has killed too many people and misappropriated too many billions to ever voluntarily give up power. Options include resetting terms with new constitution, scrapping term limits (like Xi), or creating a new title (like Kazakhstan). In his State of the Union, Putin announced additional powers for the Duma his party dominates and State Council he heads—triggering the resignation of his entire cabinet. The Council could look similar to the Central Committee of the Communist Party, where regional first secretaries reported to the general secretary. | Europe | Russia |
| 2/8/2020 | -Iran's strong men face immense pressure on all sides and are not responding well. After three days of denying shooting down the Ukrainian airliner, the IRGC finally apologized, then resumed clubbing protestors in Tehran. They have offered no solutions to economic anxiety and political stagnation--and with Europe finally abandoning JCPOA, a new deal is unlikely. The moderate Rouhani’s term will end next year and the IRGC remains firmly under Khamenei. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 2/8/2020 | -The Iranian strikes on Ain al-Asad reveal the US no longer has a monopoly on precision strikes. They may have advanced from camera/laser guidance to on-board inertial navigation guidance. US JDAMs can be within 5m with GPS support. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 2/8/2020 | -Although hawkish on immigration, a strong economy is driving record highs in legal temporary migrants—especially H-2A agricultural guest workers. The House passed a moderate bill to make the visa-application process easier. | United States | Immigration |
| 2/8/2020 | -America's combination of consolidated power in the executive branch and increasing political polarization results in schizophrenic foreign policy. | United States | |
| 2/8/2020 | -Through heavy reliance on sanctions and tariffs for foreign policy, Trump is politicizing America’s financial hegemony and disrupting trade even between innocent bystanders. While alternatives to the dollar are limited and switching costs are high, Europe and Asia are exploring public digital currencies. | United States | |
| 2/2/2020 | -ISIS seeks to pit Muslims against an intolerant West, so Europe should not fall into xenophobia and migration controls. Improved intelligence and integrated European policing will also help—France and Britain are improving but Belgium is a weak link. Pushing ISIS out of Raqqa and Mosul will require a ground force stronger than the Iraqi army; one (remote) possibility could be a UN-mandated force of Turkish and Gulf Arab troops. | Europe | |
| 2/2/2020 | -In shooting down a jet, Turkey was hot-headed and Russia was provocative. Both should refocus effort against ISIS. | Europe | Russia |
| 2/2/2020 | -That climate change is happening, man-made, and exceedingly dangerous is hard to deny. In the medium-term, need to accept that it will get worse and help places that will be hardest hit (sanitation, healthcare, etc.). In the long-term, need ambition: subsidies are good, but politicians should pledge more R&D for tomorrow’s technologies. | Global | Climate |
| 2/2/2020 | -While Japan is safe, 90% of convictions are a result of confessions—many of which are given under duress. Interrogations should be recorded and all suspects must receive defense lawyers. | Asia | Japan |
| 2/2/2020 | -The new right-wing populist government in Poland is off to an awful start. It has violated the constitution to replace the previous government’s appointees on the constitutional court, put partisans in charge of the intelligence agencies, purged officials and backtracked on Poland’s commitments to the EU. | Europe | Poland |
| 2/1/2020 | -As Britain prepares its 2020 SDSR (first since 2015), the UK-US alliance is being questioned, largely around China and Huawei. Nonetheless, equipment and intelligence remains closely intertwined and Brexit rules out EU-based European defense partnerships. | Asia | China |
| 2/1/2020 | -Bernanke is arguing despite low interest rates, bond-buying (“quantitative easing”) and promises about future policy (“forward guidance”) can provide a stimulus equivalent to about a ~3% drop in interest rate. But outside of the US, interest rates are so close to zero they are unlikely to sufficiently ward off a recession. Central banks need to redesign their toolbox to deal with a low-rate world. | Business & Economics | |
| 2/1/2020 | -Demand for sand is as high as any other natural resource bar water. Sand is the biggest ingredient in cement, asphalt, and glass. Since the 1960s, Singapore has expanded its territory by almost a quarter by dumping it into sea. UAE imports because its own sand is too fine for construction. But the growth in illegal dredging is harmful to farmers and the environment. | Other | |
| 2/1/2020 | -Driven by a strong mandate, fondness of grand gestures, and threats on two fronts, Modi named—for the first time since 1947—a Chief of Defense Staff to 'lead' all three services. The armed forces are also preparing for theater commands, though India has struggled mightily with joint operations (e.g. 1999 war with Pakistan). | Asia | India |
| 2/1/2020 | -Europe’s policy of exposing firms to global competition, hobbling potential monopolists with antitrust, and preventing governments from mollycoddling favored firms has failed in areas like tech, where the US leads and Chinese protectionism has earned its firms significant marketshare. Now, with an industrial policy forthcoming in March, the EU is growing more protectionist as well as picking winners and throwing money at them (e.g. PPP in batteries). | Business & Economics | |
| 2/1/2020 | -Seven years after France deployed troops to Mali, the French are questioning the purpose of their 4,500 troops in the Sahel (a helicopter collision killed 13). Even its long ally America is considering scaling back regional operations. | Europe | France |
| 2/1/2020 | -Starting last June, Iran began acting increasingly belligerent, attacking merchant ships, US drones in Hormuz/Yemen, and oil facilities in KSA. Killing Suleimani/Mohandis may deprive Kataib Hizbullah and Iran’s broader terrorist militia network leadership and funding. But the strike (1) united nearly all Iranians against the US | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 2/1/2020 | -The US National Commission suggested AI may one day help locate the stealthiest nuclear-armed submarines, which would erode nuclear deterrence and increase incentives for preemptive strikes. China is equally concerned, but agreeing on rules is harder than wrangling over nuclear arsenals. Obstacles are both physical (e.g. software) and moral (e.g. CT cooperation could violate US privacy laws). | Asia | China |
| 2/1/2020 | -The World Economic Forum at Davos faces challenges: (1) increasing competition from Aspen, TED, the Milken Institute, and others; (2) association with pure capitalism, which may be on the back foot; and (3) its 81yo founder shows no sign of bowing out. | Business & Economics | |
| 2/1/2020 | -With so many complex variables in their models (e.g. investors, regulators, consumers, climate change, project risk, etc.), big oil companies disagree about when to transition away from oil. ExxonMobil and Chevron remain committed, Shell and BP favor natural gas, and a few already dabble in renewables. | Business & Economics | |
| 2/1/2020 | -Three ways to fight polarization in American politics: ranked voting, election of multiple representatives from enlarged districts, and elimination of electoral college. | United States | Politics |
| 1/25/2020 | -15 lightly armed al-Shabab jihadists killed three Americans and wrecked six aircraft at a Kenyan airbase. While al-Shabab is a Sunni AQ affiliate, some analysts fear a pragmatic partnership with Iran (Suleimani happily worked with Hamas against Israel). | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 1/25/2020 | -A new decree in Japan ordained that official documents should reverse the order of Japanese people’s names when they are rendered in the Latin alphabet so that the family name comes first (now Abe Shinzo). | Asia | Japan |
| 1/25/2020 | -About 9% of American adolescents have secretly sent abusive messages to themselves (“digital self-harm”), usually to get attention/sympathy. Others post emotional confessions on social media in the hope friends will comfort them (“sadfishing”). | Other | |
| 1/25/2020 | -After a year, Bolsonaro’s primary accomplishment has been pension reform and subsequently restored confidence in the economy. But he has also endorsed police violence, permitted corruption, and ramped up deforestation of the Amazon. | Americas | Brazil |
| 1/25/2020 | -After UK leaves the EU on Jan 31, it will move into an 11-month transition period for further negotiations (in which Johnson has very little leverage). The industries most likely to suffer are those which rely on European supply chains (aerospace, cars, chemicals, food/drink, pharmaceuticals). | Europe | UK |
| 1/25/2020 | -As many as a fifth of women will be raped in their lifetime. 30% tell no one, 50% tell an acquaintance, 20% tell the police. One study finds 2-8% of women lie about rape. Under 10% happen in a public place (39% victim’s house, 24% offender’s home). Rape should be plainly defined as sex without consent (some laws still require proof of force, exempt marital rape). Statutes of limitations should be extended or scrapped. Police should be trained to deal with cases more sensitively. And sex education should teach about consent. | Global | |
| 1/25/2020 | -Australia has comprehensive fire-safety rules for home builders and expanded controlled burns. But there was little funding for water-bombing aircraft or equipment for volunteer firefighters. The biggest problem of all is the exceptionally hot and dry weather (Morrison has accepted some linkage to climate change but refuses to reinstate a carbon tax). | Asia | Australia |
| 1/25/2020 | -Despite 70% economic contraction since Maduro took office in 2017, his regime survives. After using his puppet court and parallel assembly to bar and remove immunity for opposition legislators, he’s now offering bribes to lawmakers to switch sides. Nonetheless, Guaidó preserved his majority and on January 7 brushed police aside to enter parliament building and repeat the swearing in (sans electricity). Most expected Maduro to rig national elections later this year, but he is desperate to change the law to allow Russian and Chinese companies to run the flagging oil industry. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 1/25/2020 | -Instead of building retirement communities for its bulging elderly population, Finland is using digital home visits, pill-dispensing robots, fall detection, and wristbands with GPS to keep people at home for longer. | Europe | Finland |
| 1/25/2020 | -Libya: Government of National Accord (UN, Turkey) v. Libyan National Army, Haftar (Egypt, UAE, Russia). | Middle East & Africa | Libya |
| 1/25/2020 | -Macron’s bold reform of 42 separate pension plans costing 14% of GDP into a single points-based system has generated the longest strike in decades. In negotiations with unions, a sticking point is a “pivot age” of 64. While polls suggest people oppose the strikes, they also oppose the badly-needed reform. | Europe | France |
| 1/25/2020 | -MS-13 and Barrio 18 arose in LA during the 1980s when many Salvadorians had fled a civil war. In 1997, the US began deporting thousands back to El Salvador. | Americas | El Salvador |
| 1/25/2020 | -Omani ruler Sultan Qaboos died after ruling since 1970. Though not democratic, he modernized the state and remained relatively popular. A bachelor, he named his 65yo cousin as heir. Across the region, elderly infirm monarchs are ceding power to younger relatives (Qatar, KSA, UAE). | Middle East & Africa | Oman |
| 1/25/2020 | -Paris transport strikes are entering their second month—longer than 1995. Macron should not abandon efforts to reform the generous and complicated pension system. | Europe | France |
| 1/25/2020 | -Renault-Nissan executive Carlos Ghosn skipped bail in Japan and fled to his native Lebanon, which does not have an extradition arrangement. All parties look bad (SEC says Ghosn concealed $140M in compensation, Japanese law enforcement held him for 120 days/interrogated him without a lawyer, and Renault-Nissan seems paralyzed in scandal). | Business & Economics | |
| 1/25/2020 | -The US has stationed two warships (“sentinels”) in the Strait of Hormuz to monitor/deter Iran from interfering with international shipping in response to sanctions. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 1/25/2020 | -There are nearly 7M Chinese students studying in the US. They face skepticism from both the USG for stealing IP and the Chinese Government for contracting democratic idealism. | Asia | China |
| 1/25/2020 | -US China-hawks in both policy and industry have no consensus on whether America’s goal should be a lower bilateral trade deficit, increase profits from Chinese subsidiaries, or thwart China’s expansion. Muddled thinking leads to muddled results on everything from tariffs to Huawei. Yet, the two remained exceptionally intertwined in banking, technology, and research. | Asia | China |
| 1/25/2020 | -While many white progressives have moved left, non-whites remain moderate, skeptical, and even conservative on social issues. This has hurt Buttigieg, who—even though he is moderate relative to Sanders/Warren—is still left of Obama (e.g. debt-free college). | United States | Politics |
| 1/18/2020 | -After dropping by about from nearly $25B in 2001 to under $15B in 2014 due to piracy, the recorded music industry has recovered to around $20B (mostly in streaming). Streaming is highly concentrated (Spotify and Apple together control over half). | Business & Economics | |
| 1/18/2020 | -At least 35 high school football stadiums in Texas cost over $70M; each larger than almost any high school facility outside the US. | Other | Sports |
| 1/18/2020 | -China announced “graduations” of Uighurs from “vocational training.” They are probably trying to transition from concentration to camps to the Tibet model: deflect international pressure, limit foreign contact, swarm with Han migration, and blanket with mass surveillance/security personnel. | Asia | China |
| 1/18/2020 | -From 2009-18, the share of teenagers who read newspapers declined from around 60% to close to 20%. Youth now view even Facebook and Twitter as outdated, preferring Instagram stories and YouTube. Personalities (e.g. Trevor Noah) are replacing news organizations. While an opportunity for business, the risk is this new media lacks a code of journalistic objectivity. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/18/2020 | -Historically focused on business, Japan came late to mass tourism. As a result, there are more five-star hotel rooms in London than all of Japan. The government is considering tax breaks and cheap loans in an effort to build 50 new "world-class" hotels in Tokyo (though not in time for the Olympics). | Asia | Japan |
| 1/18/2020 | -No enshrined freedom of speech and huge defamation payouts encourage Australians to sue whenever they are slighted. The government has responded with amendments to libel laws to help the media pursue legitimate lines of inquiry. | Asia | Australia |
| 1/18/2020 | -PM Johnson won a ~70 seat majority (largest since Thatcher) and clear mandate for the UK to leave the EU by January 31; though it will have to negotiate a FTA by next December 31. Johnson’s strategy of targeting working-class Bexiteers broke the traditionally Labour “red wall” in northern England (he also benefited from a weak opponent and emphasis on cultural issues). | Europe | UK |
| 1/18/2020 | -Putin dispatched 1,400 mercenaries from the Kremlin-tied Wagner Group to support General Khalifa Hafta's Libyan National Army which is closing in on Tripoli and the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). A US drone was reportedly shot down there last month. | Middle East & Africa | Libya |
| 1/18/2020 | -Residents of Asbestos, Quebec (near the once largest mine of the furry mineral) want to change their name. But Swastika, Ontario has no plans to change. | Other | |
| 1/18/2020 | -Since the March 2019 grounding of the 737MAX, Boeing’s response has been an ugly mixture of remorse, evasion, and swagger. There has been no public, comprehensive, independent investigation by the firm, only leaks about software problems and cut corners. It over-promised a quick recovery and maintained its stock dividend. There is a sense it played a game of chicken to pressure regulators not to disrupt air travel or the economy. This backfired, turning its FAA relationship frosty, forcing Boeing a halt in production, and the firing of Muilenburg. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/18/2020 | -The inner four planets are small and rocky, the outer four are bigger and gaseous. Interactions with migrating planets influence their orbit significantly (e.g. models suggest Jupiter threw a smaller sibling out of the solar system entirely). | Science & Technology | |
| 1/18/2020 | -The stock market’s strong December 2019 was primarily driven by lower interest rates and a mini-trade deal between the US and China: | Asia | China |
| 1/18/2020 | -Western export regulations must restrict sale of “intrusion software” (e.g. Israeli company hacked WhatsApp) which could bolster authoritarian regimes and be re-used against Western targets. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/18/2020 | -DOJ IG report found FBI investigation into Trump campaign was justified based on the Australian tip via Papadopoulos (Steele Dossier and Strzok/Page played no/little role). It was, however, critical of errors or omissions in applications to wiretap Carter Page. | United States | Politics |
| 1/18/2020 | -With Pennsylvania and Michigan looking Democratic, Wisconsin is looking decisive. Trump is focusing advertisements there while Democrats are holding their national convention in Milwaukee in July. | United States | Politics |
| 1/18/2020 | -Despite objections from Congressional Democrats, DoD has begun testing ballistic missiles hitherto banned by INF (although it insists that unlike the Russian SSC-8, its missiles do not have nuclear tips). Secretary Esper has not ruled out placing missiles in Asia or Europe, though allies have dodged the question. | United States | Military |
| 1/18/2020 | -There are over 5,000 people from over 150 countries receiving military training in America. The programs are purportedly to improve allied forces but more often cultivate upwardly-mobile officers. | United States | Military |
| 1/18/2020 | -Over 80% of Texas schools teach abstinence-only or nothing on sex, but over 60% of high-school seniors say they’ve had sex and it has one of the highest teen-pregnancy rates in US. Parts like Austin are liberalizing, although lessons on gender identity remain highly controversial. | United States | |
| 1/11/2020 | -Airbus is studying how to save fuel and carbon emissions by flying in the wake of another aircraft (a la geese). The challenge is catching the supportive updraft without the downdraft—and safety concerns about flying within 3km. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/11/2020 | -As DoD embraces CubeSats for survivability, it also needs a quicker launch capability. New Zealand-based Rocket Lab is building a launch monthly and is a pioneer of 3D printing to increase agility. Virgin Orbit can also do aerial launches above weather and against Earth spin which reduces velocity needed for certain orbitals. USAF is also exploring ways to bypass burdensome acquisition processes and buy via PayPal. DARPA is also hosting launch grand challenges. | Science & Technology | |
| 1/11/2020 | -China has grown increasingly assertive at the UN, using investments as carrots/sticks to get language into resolutions. It is now the second-largest contributor and secured roles in several UN bodies (e.g. Food and Agriculture Organization). | Asia | China |
| 1/11/2020 | -Claims of “net zero” emissions rely on rosy projections of negative emissions (removal of CO2 from atmosphere). Planting trees would require new trees across land the size of Russia, and engineering carbon capture is hampered by scientific barriers and lack of incentives (carbon price essential). | Global | Climate |
| 1/11/2020 | -Despite being convicted of murdering 15 political opponents in 1982, Suriname’s president is likely to be re-elected next year. | Americas | Suriname |
| 1/11/2020 | -Italy’s Five Star Movement won by being anti-establishment, but has struggled since taking office. The concern is that their support will migrate to the Northern League. | Europe | Italy |
| 1/11/2020 | -KSA said its IPO raised $25.6B, valuing the company at $1.7T (MBS originally wanted a $2T valuation). | Business & Economics | |
| 1/11/2020 | -Office buildings have been slower to adapt solar panels than homes because roofs lack sufficient area to power many floors and there are strict building regulations around walls. But by carefully spacing tiny holes into the silicon wafers, a South Korean company has designed panels which effectively function as "tinted" windows. | Asia | Korea |
| 1/11/2020 | -Polls suggest around 15% of Arabs have lost faith in Islamic political parties. The share describing themselves as “not religious” has increased from 8% in 2013 to 13%. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 1/11/2020 | -Rather than a Russian-loving interventionist or Brexit-obsessed comedian, UK voters must vote for the Liberal Democrats on Dec 12 to signal voters still support free markets and liberal society. “Post-truth” campaigning is driven by the candidates and political tribalism, but mostly by technology (social media lacks gatekeepers limited by professional ethics). | Europe | UK |
| 1/11/2020 | -Sergey Brin and Larry Page famously sought “parental supervision” in 2001 in hiring veteran CEO Eric Schmidt. They are now retiring as president/CEO of the $910B Alphabet, but will retain over 50% of the firm’s voting rights. Questions linger about diversification (80% revenue from ads) and regulations (anti-trust and privacy). 80% of the smartphone market uses Android. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/11/2020 | -The anti-vax movement reduced measles vaccinations in Samoa from 90% in 2013 to only 31% in 2018, and thus an outbreak has produced 4,000 infections and 60 deaths. | Science & Technology | |
| 1/11/2020 | -The World Anti-Doping Agency banned Russia from major international sport events for four years, although it does not include next year’s European Championship and a loophole could allow Russians to compete under a neutral flag. In Pyeonchang last year, “athletes from Russia” won 17 medals. | Europe | Russia |
| 1/11/2020 | -Trump seized the opportunity to attack Macron’s critique of NATO. Now, the chief challenger is Erdogan, who bought S-400, obstructed NATO decisions on eastern Europe, and invaded Syria. | Europe | Turkey |
| 1/11/2020 | -Unseasonably heavy rains followed drought in India’s north-central onion belt, causing shortages driving prices to triple. Modi banned exports, which lowered prices but angered farmers. | Asia | India |
| 1/11/2020 | -Impeachment. The facts: Trump withheld aid, and offered Zelensky a WH meeting if he announced an investigation. The law: Impeachment was designed for violations of public trust which need not even be crimes. Nonetheless, public opinion has been stagnant around 50% because Democrats chose to push forward over trying to use judicial branch to force key witnesses (Mulvaney, Bolton) to testify. The President will be acquitted, continuing to benefit from the constitution’s pro-rural bias: | United States | Politics |
| 1/4/2020 | -Buttigieg insists his projects at McKinsey are under NDA, but include: grocery store prices in Toronto and reviving state-owned enterprises in Iraq/Afghanistan for DoD. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 1/4/2020 | -Corbyn advocates government-powered solutions to every problem: the renationalisation of the utilities; a free, state-run British Broadband Service; a state-run drug company to provide cut-price medicines; a sustainable-investment board and a national energy agency; national commissions on food, health, working time, women, pensions; and agencies galore. This injects politics into every corner of society. | Europe | UK |
| 1/4/2020 | -GPS-company Garmin has created “Autoland,” a panic button for small planes which transmits an emergency alert before engaging autopilot to land at the nearest airport. | Science & Technology | |
| 1/4/2020 | -Japan has more than 1m “recluses,” defined as people who played no part in society for at least six months. Mental health has gained attention and support groups, especially when a former official killed his recluse son for fear he was a danger. | Asia | Japan |
| 1/4/2020 | -Same sex behavior has been recorded in some 1500 animal species. While often considered an evolutionary paradox, a new theory suggests early ancestors didn’t have the biological equipment needed to discern the sex of others of their species, so would have exhibited indiscriminate sexual behavior to transmit its genes to the next generation. | Science & Technology | |
| 1/4/2020 | -Since Bush abolished federal rules in 2001, states with an estate tax have lost 35% of their listed billionaires to states without estate taxes. But it also suggests enough tycoons want to “age in place” for the tax to create a windfall. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/4/2020 | -Some management research goes too far. For example, British managers began standing with their feet apart like a living croquet hoop because research said it made managers appear more confident. | Other | |
| 1/4/2020 | -Speech rules for digital democracy should be set by political leaders, not unaccountable American CEOs—let alone Chinese CEOs. While fraught with challenges, politicians have in the past agreed on how to regulate radio, television, and newspapers. They should be wary of micro-targeted ads, as forcing wide circulation helps everyone police mendacity. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/4/2020 | -Trump has been more aggressive with sanctions than his predecessor, adding over 3,100 people and entities to the OFAC list. Beyond high profile efforts in Iran and Venezuela, includes many people accused of corruption and human rights abuses (under Magnitsky Act). Sanctions have proven effective in a tactical sense, but not a strategic one. If overused, foreign powers may seek avoidance schemes, weakening America’s special position at the center of the global financial system. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/4/2020 | -Uber says it had reports of 3,045 sexual assaults during its 1.3 billion rides in the U.S. in 2018, with nine people murdered and 58 killed in crashes. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/4/2020 | -The US quietly stations ~150 tactical nuclear gravity bombs across five countries in continental Europe—Italy, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, and Turkey. There are also logistical challenges (dual-capable fighters near retirement, aging infrastructure) and political challenges (During the 2016 coup, Erdogan cut power to Incirlik and arrested the commander, causing some to advocate replacing the bombs with dummies. Risks are it could worsen the diplomatic crisis or cause Erdogan to develop his own nukes.) | United States | Military |
| 1/4/2020 | -Trump hasn’t actually had more flag-rank officers in his administration than Obama, but he has put them in jobs usually held by civilians (DoD, DHS, ANSA). The real problem for civil-military relations is the politicization of the military (e.g. former generals increasingly campaigning). Polls find 83% of Americans still trust the military, behind only scientists. Trump’s support is largely with the enlisted ranks. | United States | Military |
| 12/28/2019 | -After fraught negotiations last year, ROK paid $920M in 2019 for the 28,500 US troops there (an 8% increase from 2018), as well as the $10B for Camp Humphreys construction. This year, the US reportedly is asking $5B, and walked out on Day 2 of negotiations. US demands are likely to increase anti-American sentiment among ordinary South Koreans. | Asia | Korea |
| 12/28/2019 | -Amidst economic crisis, many Venezuelans now spend hours “farming” gold in video games to be sold for real money (often Bitcoin, which is more stable than Bolivar). Gaming companies contend they’re not real players, drive inflation within the game, and dislike competition with their own virtual gold sales. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 12/28/2019 | -China supposedly only has 290 nuclear warheads (US/RUS have over 6,000), 90 launchers (US has 400), and 20 nuclear-capable bombers (US has 66). None are deployed and it claims policy of No First Use. But it recently revealed the DF-41, the first road-mobile (ie, easy to hide) and solid-fueled (ie, quick to launch) missile capable of hitting US. China also refuses a nuclear dialogue with the US for fear of giving too much away. | Asia | China |
| 12/28/2019 | -The main villain behind US healthcare cost inflation is not big pharma (15% of spending), but hospitals (30%). They thrive on price opacity (mammogram can cost $150-550 in same city) and consolidation (680 mergers since 2010). Trump issued new rules requiring hospitals to reveal what they actually charge insurance companies by 2021. The risk—because consumers are not price-sensitive—is that cheaper hospitals will just raise their prices. Need government to set standards and inject more competition. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/28/2019 | -Ideologically extreme candidates stoke more turnout from the opposition than their own party. Democrats should look for a moderate in 2020. | United States | Politics |
| 12/28/2019 | -US Presidents have typically used back-channel diplomacy to hold exploratory talks with rivals (e.g. Kissinger to China; Sullivan to Iran). But Trump’s Giuliani channel was intended for personal political goals and Zelensky is an elected leader of an allied country. | United States | |
| 12/14/2019 | -“Bug hunters” in Congo go to the local airport at 5am to catch them along runway lights. They can earn more money than fruit farmers, and crickets require 12 times less food than cattle to produce the same amount of protein. | Middle East & Africa | Congo |
| 12/14/2019 | -Although Trump “called off” Taliban negotiations, Khalilzad continues talking and swapped several senior Haqqani officials for two teachers abducted in Kabul. Both sides know they cannot win the war—though Taliban has battlefield advantage. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 12/14/2019 | -Apportionment is particularly bad in Japan, where liberal big cities continue to grow, even while the total population shrinks. This gives outsize influence to the rural, elderly, conservative districts which support Abe’s LDP. | Asia | Japan |
| 12/14/2019 | -Google is launching a gaming platform Stadia, but prices remain high, it only has 22 games signed on, and streaming for games requires more broadband than movies and TV. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/14/2019 | -Hamas has fought three wars against Israel since the 1980s, with disastrous consequences for Gaza. When Israel assassinated a Gaza leader last week, it declined to join the fighting. Netanyahu refrained from escalating—leaving Hamas in control of Gaza keeps Palestinian leadership divided between with the PA in the West Bank. If Israel cannot form a government by December 11, it will vote for a third time. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 12/14/2019 | -Iran’s currency has recovered somewhat from a 60% drop after sanctions, petrochemicals have somewhat offset lost oil revenues, and Iran remains the second-largest economy after KSA. But a rise in the state-controlled price of fuel triggered protests across the country. To dampen the anger ahead of parliamentary elections early next year, the clerics said the revenues will go to welfare. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 12/14/2019 | -Israeli settlements in areas captured by the 1967 War have long and broadly been considered illegal under the Fourth Geneva Convention. Nearly 500K Israelis now live in the West Bank, alongside 2.6M Palestinians. The settlements were growing at a decent clip anyway, but it could hasten Likud efforts to annex the region and undermine two-state solution. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 12/14/2019 | -Management consulting is becoming increasingly focused on implementation of new technologies rather than simply offering strategy advice. McKinsey has also been embroiled in several scandals in recently years (including 5 conflict of interest lawsuits from Jay Alix of AlixPartners). | Business & Economics | |
| 12/14/2019 | -Solar panels next to railways can not only power trains but utilize empty space and provide shade to limit vegetation which needs to be cut back. | Science & Technology | |
| 12/14/2019 | -The streaming media investment boom offers consumers more and cheaper options, but telecoms and airlines offer cautionary tales of consolidation into oligopolies known for poor service and high prices. Government should ensure competition by preventing dominant market share, stove piped personal data, and restrictions on what content hardware producers will show. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/14/2019 | -There has been a surge in jihadist attacks near artisanal gold mines in Burkina Faso. | Middle East & Africa | Burkina Faso |
| 12/14/2019 | -Trump’s embrace of autocrats has yielded no foreign policy achievements for the US. Putin and Erdogan have been unencumbered in the Middle East, Sisi backed out of Arab NATO, MBS murdered a journalist, and Kim is back to testing missiles. Trump’s primary objective seems to be good rapport. | United States | |
| 12/7/2019 | -Industrially, Macron wants the state to foster European champions, but this channels contracts to politically-connected incumbents rather than encouraging competition and innovation. | Europe | France |
| 12/7/2019 | -Investing approaches: Warren Buffett looks for underpriced stocks. George Soros bets on epoch-making events, like the fall of the Berlin Wall. Renaissance Technologies’ Jim Simons was a mathematician code-breaker who looked for patterns. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/7/2019 | -Leonardo da Vinci’s personal winery in Milan (2 min from The Last Supper) burned down from Allied bombing in 1943, but has been rediscovered by an oenologist who used genetic testing to reproduce his grapes. The reopened vineyard produced its first harvest in September 2018. | Other | |
| 12/7/2019 | -Of the 2.7 Americans have served in Iraq or Afghanistan, 35% are disabled; most with PTSD or concussion. Only 2% were wounded in action. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 12/7/2019 | -Riot police continue to rely on tear gas, even though it is banned in warfare by the 1925 Geneva Convention. Proponents view as an alternative to gunfire, skeptics say it reduces the threshold for acceptable violence. Little is known about the long-term effects. | Global | Policing |
| 12/7/2019 | -Thailand’s National Health Commission reckons about half of the country’s 349,000 monks are either overweight or obese. Prayer and meditation don’t burn calories, so workouts are limited to walks and cleaning the temple. | Asia | Thailand |
| 12/7/2019 | -The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade deal will move forward with China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia—but not India. India and China both have deals with ASEAN, but not each other. | Asia | |
| 12/7/2019 | -While maneuverable, rickshaws are slow and create traffic throughout Asia. In July, Dhaka, Bangladesh vowed to ban them within two years, but public transportation is limited and it will impact close to 1m drivers, as well as producers, mechanics, and owners. | Asia | |
| 12/7/2019 | -With a fracturing EU and receding US, Macron wants Europe to take responsibility for security. His European Intervention Initiative, PESCO, and European Defense Fund are a start, but America’s departure would leave vast holes in IAMD, ISR, and aerial refueling. | Europe | |
| 12/7/2019 | -Aircraft carriers remain popular despite increasing vulnerability in near-peer scenarios. Britain, India, China, and ~Japan are all building carriers. Carrier-jets flew 41% of sorties in Korean War and over half in Vietnam—plus Iraq and ISIS. They also have symbolic value for power projection (only reason RUS keeps one). But aircraft range has decreased as cruise missiles (e.g. DF-21D) increase. They also cost $13B production/$726M operating, meaning smaller countries can’t afford support ships needed for missile defense. Should consider drones (e.g. original X-47B concept) and smaller, more maneuverable carriers. | United States | Military |
| 11/30/2019 | -AG Barr delighted Trump by leaking that DOJ opened investigation into the origins of the Russia investigation and appears to be actively engaged—even traveling to Rome. This is usually left to the IG, which is already conducting its own independent investigation. | United States | Politics |
| 11/30/2019 | -In a Jim Crow holdover, Mississippi’s constitution requires statewide officers win a majority of the popular vote and a majority of the 122 districts or else the House chooses the governor (favoring Republicans). | United States | Politics |
| 11/30/2019 | -As Santiago’s protests grew, Pinera rolled back the fare increase and increased spending on health care and pensions. Unlike other countries where pensions are financed by taxing current workers, Chileans invest money in privately managed funds but often find they haven’t saved enough. | Americas | Chile |
| 11/30/2019 | -British election December 12 offers a bevy of unattractive choices. Johnson Tories pushing hard Brexit and freewheeling capitalism. Labor supports second referendum but offers a far-left economic approach (mass privatization). | Europe | UK |
| 11/30/2019 | -CEOs often push diversity issues to legal or HR, but they should take personal responsibility. It matters for reputation, recruitment, and innovation. Most D&I training is wasteful and “days of understanding” risk backlash/diversity fatigue. Instead, focus on creating a level playing field for promotions (especially first level of management) and consider staff surveys with public scorecards. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/30/2019 | -Exercising 30 minutes per day can lower the likelihood of depression more than 40%. Those who exercise tend to earn 5-10% more (causation could be either way). Fitter workers miss fewer days and tend to be more present when at work. They also reduce health-care costs for their employers. One incentive program gave employees an Apple Watch, and refunded the price based on how much they exercised (takes advantage of loss aversion). | Science & Technology | |
| 11/30/2019 | -Facebook’s decision to allow political advertising is in line with current practice on TV/press. It is illegal to lie in commercial advertising, but political ads are exempt. Having a government agency police truth creates numerous challenges. Even Twitter’s new policy of banning political ads will be challenging to implement. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/30/2019 | -Jews prefer burial to cremation and Jerusalem is running out space. The city launched a $70M project to dig miles of tunnels as low as 18 stories below ground to hold 23,000 bodies. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 11/30/2019 | -Leftists are attacking billionaires as policy failures, but many have earned wealth from competitive markets, not entrenched monopolies or relying on state favors. Taxes should be progressive, but this does not justify punitive redistribution which would chill incentives to innovate and allocate capital efficiently. Instead, should shorten IP | Business & Economics | |
| 11/30/2019 | -Sexualized disinformation dates back to Marie Antoinette, but deepfake technologies are allowing trolls to increase attacks on women journalists and activists, including fake sex tapes. | Science & Technology | |
| 11/30/2019 | -Surveys suggest over half of Japanese women have experienced groping on the train. Efforts to reduce include cameras, apps to report/identify it. | Asia | Japan |
| 11/30/2019 | -TikTok is pure entertainment, but is owned by ByteDance, a Beijing firm and thus authorities fear it collects data and censors content. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/23/2019 | -Mendacity has deep roots in politics, but the consequences of lying in democracies have never been lower. Trump has made nearly 14,000 false or misleading statements. His approval rating (44%) is higher than proportion who believe he tells the truth (33%). Explanations: Confirmation bias/abundant fake news; voters seem to trust leaders (or “sides”) they vote for, no matter what they say or do; humans are bad at identifying deceit (presumption of truth). | United States | Politics |
| 11/23/2019 | -Warren’s admirably detailed plans have plenty of good ideas, but they reveal a systematic reliance on regulation and protectionism. Banks and tech firms would be dismembered and turned into utilities, shale fracking would be banned, private health insurance largely abolished, social security/wealth taxes hiked (and still not cover Medicare-for-All), and new requirements put on trade deals. Better would be closing tax loopholes, using inheritance and carbon taxes, and putting some faith in the private sector. | United States | Politics |
| 11/23/2019 | -AMLO is skeptical of using force to fight criminals; he stood up a National Guard but it’s doing more border security than policing. 14 were killed in a Sinaloa shootout before police let El Chapo’s son go. His strategy depends on improving economic conditions, but lacks plans to improve police training or strengthen the judiciary. | Americas | Mexico |
| 11/23/2019 | -Baghdadi’s death will disrupt IS, but it retains organization (plus franchises), ideological zeal, and an ability to draw on local resources (esp. with the US retreat). His location in Idlib suggests he may have been seeking rapprochement with AQ. Trump will receive little credit—the raid depended on local troops (which he’s withdrawn), allies (whom he disparages), and intel agencies (which he derides). | Global | Terrorism |
| 11/23/2019 | -Climate change and urban pollution are shifting public opinion, which could stagnate or drop oil demand (petrochemicals/plastics lack ready substitute, but >33% goes to cars/lorries). This could increase turbulence in already volatile energy markets and geopolitics (e.g. 26 countries rely on oil for >5% of GDP). Saudi Aramco’s forthcoming IPO pitches its abundant, professional, cheap, and relatively clean (to mine) oil—and a strategic shift into downstream petrochemicals. But risks include monarchal control (e.g. Kashoggi murder), internal instability (youth bulge), external threats (i.e. Iran strikes), and US fracking (now world’s largest producer). | Global | Climate |
| 11/23/2019 | -In China, over 99% of criminal defendants are found guilty, and thousands are executed each year. Trying to shift to house arrest with unpaid labor/community service and eight hours re-education monthly. It costs 1/10th the cost of jail, but need more staff to manage. | Asia | China |
| 11/23/2019 | -Most constructions is done with steel rebars and concrete filling, but water seeps through tiny cracks causing the rebar to rust (“concrete cancer”). Australia is experimenting with carbon-fiber rebar and geopolymer concrete which produces less CO2 emissions. | Science & Technology | |
| 11/23/2019 | -New research suggests feeding livestock seaweed could reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (methane farts). | Science & Technology | |
| 11/23/2019 | -To survive, MBA programs need to reduce costs (doubled in a decade), increase technology curricula (AI/data analytics), and consider expanding case studies beyond purely maximizing shareholder value. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/23/2019 | -Warren wants to break up big tech companies which (1) engage in buy-outs to eliminate potential competitors (e.g. Facebook buying Instagram); or (2) own a marketplace on which they do business (e.g. Amazon Basics, Apple Store). There are numerous practical challenges: valuating companies, “unscrambling the egg”, undercutting synergies, higher prices and/or less investment, and legal obstacles. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/23/2019 | -When Pablo Escobar died, his Colombian camels and zebras were sent to zoos and the rhinos died out, but the hippos have procreated up to 50 and are wreaking havoc on the ecosystem—including killing endangered manatees. It is illegal to kill them, they can’t be returned to Africa (inbred), so scientists are trying to develop birth control. | Americas | Colombia |
| 11/23/2019 | -Signed in 1992, the Open Skies treaty allows members to conduct a set number of flights virtually anywhere as long as they give 72 hours’ notice, use unclassified cameras, and share the product with any of the 34 signatories. Russia uses obscure provisos to limit Western access to Georgian territories, Kaliningrad, and military exercises. US and Russia can replace with spy satellites, but treaty still generates useful military engagement and smaller countries depend on it. Bolton set the withdrawal process in motion, though O’Brien is believes to be slow-rolling it. | United States | Military |
| 11/16/2019 | -59yo Prince Naruhito became the 126th Emperor of Japan in May following the abdication of his father due to age and infirmity. Unlike other royals, there is no prurient tabloid coverage and limited personal wealth (~$46K/year), with primary duties being obscure Shinto rituals like offering rice to the gods. | Asia | Japan |
| 11/16/2019 | -A Cambridge biotech company has developed a monoclonal antibody drug which has shown tenuous utility in treating Alzheimer’s, but more trials are needed. | Science & Technology | |
| 11/16/2019 | -A Lithuanian company developed software which sifts through reams of online verbiage in multiple languages to find fake news and determine the point of origin of the disinformation campaign. Key variables include source, shares, propagandist themes, and sentiment analysis; and it is supported by 4,000 volunteers. While a strong track record, some fear it is playing into the Kremlin’s hands by casting doubt on legitimate news. | Science & Technology | |
| 11/16/2019 | -Catholicism has become a religion largely of the poor world (South America, Africa, and Asia), but with leadership still predominantly rooted in the rich one. Pope Francis is trying to rebalance toward indigenous populations in Brazil, Mexico, and the Philippines by supporting efforts on cultural protection, climate change, economic inequality. He may even ordain married men as priests in the Amazon before the end of the year. | Global | Religion |
| 11/16/2019 | -Despite calls to abolish private prison firms, they house only 8% of inmates and don’t perform any worse than state institutions. More competition and transparency in contract awards could help, but better to focus on the number of prisoners, not where they are held. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/16/2019 | -Dismissing the more serious charge of rebellion, the Spanish Supreme Court found nine Catalan leaders guilty of sedition and four guilty of misuse of public funds (up to 13 years prison). The tough sentencing prompted massive protests in Barcelona and may galvanize the independence movement, which has ~44% support (though it seems both radicalized and fragmented). | Europe | Spain |
| 11/16/2019 | -Everyone has missed their deadlines on autonomous cars, reflecting Silicon Valley's predilection for grandiose promises and the limits of AI to handle "edge cases." | Science & Technology | |
| 11/16/2019 | -Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley focus on investment banking/asset management, Wells Fargo focuses on retail, and Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Citi do both. Wells Fargo’s limited exposure to investment served it well through the 2008 crisis, but since 2016, it opened 5,000 spoof accounts and had other infractions of home and auto loans—falling behind its peers. Its new CEO will likely invest heavily in technology and cut costs. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/16/2019 | -In 13 years as President of Bolivia, Evo Morales has used gas export revenues to build infrastructure, reduce poverty by 2/3 to 6%, expand rights of indigenous people, and women now occupy half the seats in congress. Nonetheless, many Bolivians now take their prosperity for granted and worry he will entrench his position for life—thus his re-election is highly uncertain. | Americas | Bolivia |
| 11/16/2019 | -In the 1920s, ship-owners began to register their vessels in Liberia to avoid taxes and labor laws back home. After a bloody civil war in 2000, most switched to Panama, but Liberia is trying to win them back, signing agreements with China. | Asia | China |
| 11/16/2019 | -Johnson and Junker’s Brexit deal is worse for the UK than Theresa May’s. It removes the “Irish backstop” arrangement by taking Britain out of the customs union altogether and scrapping a promise to maintain regulatory alignment with the bloc. This will reduce trade by 13% within ten years and create a customs border between mainland Britain and its poorest region Northern Ireland (by the way, Scotland is now seeking another independence referendum within two years). Even if it survives parliament, any deal should be put to a confirmatory popular vote. | Europe | UK |
| 11/16/2019 | -Just as Erdogan lost municipal elections in Istanbul, Orban’s man lost the mayoral race in Budapest. The arrogance of his entourage and playboy lifestyle of elites seem to have alienated traditional conservative voters, though economic growth and cult of personality mean Orban is still strong nationally. | Europe | Turkey |
| 11/16/2019 | -Macri (Argentina) and now Moreno (Ecaudor) have taken courageous measures to reduce subsidies and appease IMF, but at the cost of strong popular backlash. | Americas | Argentina |
| 11/16/2019 | -Mainland US and Russia are just 55mi apart at the Bering Strait (and closest islands are just 3mi apart). Nonetheless, Alaska is a vibrant state with a swelling population, while Chukotka is a mostly-empty, Moscow-dominated, coal and gold-mining region. | Europe | Russia |
| 11/16/2019 | -More than a quarter of Chinese adults are overweight or obese, primarily in northern cities, where there is more western food and sedentary lifestyles. In the US, 40% of adults are obese and another 32% are overweight. | Asia | China |
| 11/16/2019 | -The Thailand Army seized power in a 2014 coup. Elections in March were meant to mark a return to civilian rule, but instead saw the coup leader, Prayuth Chan-ocha, carry on as prime minister. This week, the head of the armed forces accused civilian opponents of planting “communist chips” in the heads of brainwashed youths. | Asia | Thailand |
| 11/16/2019 | -Turkey invaded Northern Syria to create a safe zone to buffer Kurds and a place to send refugees. Trump's sudden withdrawal abandons Kurds, emboldens Assad/Russia/Iran, rejuvenates ISIS, and dooms Syria to another cycle of slaughter. | Middle East & Africa | Turkey |
| 11/16/2019 | -Since 2009, US homelessness has fallen 12% nationally, but increased 18% in San Francisco, 35% in Seattle, 50% in LA, and 59% in NYC. The chief culprit is housing prices, driven by over-burdensome zoning regulations and an unwillingness among Democratic leaders to overcome entrenched local interests. Contrary to popular belief: NYC has over 11x as many homeless as SF, but fewer of them live outside (65% of homeless have some sort of temporary shelter). Homeless are rarely migrants (over 70% of homeless come from the city or surrounding areas). | United States | Housing |
| 11/9/2019 | -Congressman Joe Kennedy (great nephew of JKF) is taking on well-liked veteran Ed Markey for the Senate, but the Kennedy name no longer carries the same reputation. | United States | Politics |
| 11/9/2019 | -Political rhetoric invoking “the people” are usually misguided (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Hugo Chavez, AMLO, Boris Johnson). Trump is now inciting the “people” to reject constitutional processes. | United States | Politics |
| 11/9/2019 | -An academic study found that while building roads in Iraq increased GDP, it also increased violence. The prominent explanation is that roads often carried US troops and symbolized the US occupation. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 11/9/2019 | -China’s 70th birthday celebration showcased 580 weapons—40% of which previously unseen. DF-41 is first mobile ICBM with 10 maneuverable warheads. JFL-2 is sub-launched ICBM. DL-17 hypersonic glider. Two new drones (supersonic W-Z8 and stealthy Sharp Sword). | Asia | China |
| 11/9/2019 | -Despite political and legal headwinds, KSA is pushing to list 3% of Aramco on the Tadawul, Riyadh's stockmarket by the end of the year. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 11/9/2019 | -Despite taking control of the media and attempting to replace a third of the judges, growth, handouts, and gay-bashing should see Poland PiS party re-elected. By speaking to Trump in flattery and arms purchases, Duda won 1,000 additional (above 4,500 permanent) US troops, including a squadron of Reapers. | Europe | Poland |
| 11/9/2019 | -Long dependent on copper mining, Chile is now trying to capitalize on its lithium reserves to power a battery industry/economic growth. But manufacturers are mostly in China; and very little electric car production in South America. Further, the nuclear energy commission reserves right to limit mining quantities, spooking investors. | Asia | China |
| 11/9/2019 | -Open source software runs more than half the world’s websites, and the model is spreading to chips. This should increase competition and quicken innovation, as well as potentially help defuse US-China tension. | Asia | China |
| 11/9/2019 | -Research finds most cities are becoming less dense as their populations increase. The biggest engine is sprawl, rather than building height. | Global | Housing |
| 11/9/2019 | -SpaceX unveiled Starship Mk1, a prototype for an interplanetary (moon or Mars) spacecraft. When paired with the Falcon Super Heavy booster, it should be capable of lifting 150 tons into orbit. | Science & Technology | |
| 11/9/2019 | -Streaming now accounts for 80% of the music industry’s revenues. Artists receive a fraction of a cent for plays beyond 30 seconds. As a result, intros are becoming truncated (choruses come sooner), and hits are shorter. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/9/2019 | -The Afghan election, which pitted Ghani against Abdullah in a rematch of 2014, saw relatively low violence (5 deaths), but only around 15% turnout. It takes months to count votes and the result will certainly be disputed. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 11/9/2019 | -The niche market for plant-based meats is expected to double by 2022. Use soy, wheat, or legumes, combined with fats and flavorings. The environmental benefits are clear but price remains a problem. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/9/2019 | -Two months after India removed autonomy from Kashmir, some 2,000 detained Kashmiris remain held without charge. India’s courts (notorious for overruling the central government), have remained silent. | Asia | India |
| 11/9/2019 | -Unlike Uber/Lyft, whose stocks have fallen 35/50% since listing, AirBnB is ostensibly profitable and working with regulators in preparing for an IPO next year. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/2/2019 | -Trump acted against the national interest by putting military aid on hold to dig up dirt on a political rival. His proposal did not need to be explicit to be understood. There are many political perils to moving forward, but the president’s behavior needs investigating, with the extra authority that the impeachment process confers. | United States | Politics |
| 11/2/2019 | -A Syria study commissioned by Congress finds displacement remains high, and swaths of the population are easy fodder for jihadist recruiters. It urges the US maintain its small footprint in Syria to support liberated areas from IS, keep the jihadists at bay, and increase pressure on Assad for a political settlement. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 11/2/2019 | -Britain now has the worst PM and worst opposition leader in living memory. Johnson has lost every vote, his majority, and his attempt to suspend parliament was overturned by the Supreme Court. He also now faces allegations of an improper relationship with an American businesswoman (awarded her contracts and visited her flat during lunch). Corbyn continues to push his platform left, calling for seizure of private schools and a four-day work week. The only way out of the morass is a second referendum. | Europe | UK |
| 11/2/2019 | -California passed a bill which would allow college athletes to hire agents and earn money through sponsorships or autograph sales. Bernie Sanders wants to pay athletes, although this could raise Title IX complications. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/2/2019 | -Google researchers claim a quantum computer performed in three minutes a task that would take the most powerful classical supercomputer 10,000 years. While progressing slowly over the past 40 years, quantum could be game changing in encryption, pharmaceuticals, and artificial intelligence. | Science & Technology | |
| 11/2/2019 | -The latest iOS release allows users to send all unknown callers to voicemail automatically. This may spell the end of phone polling. | Science & Technology | |
| 11/2/2019 | -The office environment is being shaped by the desire for flexible schedules, high cost of office space, and countervailing desire to gather skilled workers in one place. Many are trending towards luxuries (parks, bikes) for the high-skilled and hot-desking (hotel cubes) for the grunt workers. Apropros, WeWork’s CEO was removed and IPO was cancelled after attracting less than 20% of its private valuation; it may now go bankrupt. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/2/2019 | -Ukraine has a diplomatic opportunity in Donbas. A Russian-speaking Jew, President Zelensky undermines Kremlin propaganda and has pulled back from the separation line to signal he is serious about peace. Putin, dealing with economic challenges and protests at home wants to normalize relations with Europe to lift sanctions and formalize his annexation of Crimea before 2024. Ukraine has offered Donbas local elections and greater autonomy provided Russia remove military hardware and thuggish militants. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 10/26/2019 | -California passed a bill requiring many firms to treat independent contractors as employees. Some worry ride-sharing prices could increase 30%. | Business & Economics | |
| 10/26/2019 | -Climate change models rely on supercomputers considering thousands of variables, both natural and human (greenhouse effect is both). Particular challenges range from the impact of living organisms, which are more complicated than physical processes. Still, models have been fairly accurate to date. | Global | Climate |
| 10/26/2019 | -Climate change will not cause human extinction, but is very real and will impact millions directly (and all indirectly). Thus, measures to combat it must likewise be wide-ranging and all-encompassing. And time is of the essence—the sooner we act, the less carbon we’ll have to remove. | Global | Climate |
| 10/26/2019 | -Contrary to popular belief, capitalism can help combat climate change. Competitive markets properly incentivized will support adaptation (e.g. sea defenses, desalination plants, drought-resistant crops). As demand rises for ways to ease the pain of climate change, supply will respond. Agricultural land prices already incorporate expected impacts of climate change and consumers already react to extreme weather events. We have seen over $2.6T invested into low-carbon energy since 2010, led by billionaires like Gates, Bloomberg, and Musk. | Global | Climate |
| 10/26/2019 | -E-cigarettes and their addictive nicotine should be regulated and kept away from children. But prohibition will only increase illicit products and vapes are better than tobacco alternatives for recovering smokers (which kill 450,000 annually). | Global | Drugs |
| 10/26/2019 | -Huawei has proposed cloning its 5G technology “stack” (patents, code, blueprints and production know-how) and selling it to a Western firm, which would be free to develop the technology as it sees fit. While espionage concerns remain, it would provide the best technology, enhance competition, and help defuse the tech cold war. | Global | |
| 10/26/2019 | -In 1965, America’s Presidential Science Advisory Committee proposed trillions of ping-pong balls on the ocean’s surface to reflect sun’s rays back to space. Newer (but unproven) ideas include growing plants to suck up CO2 and then burning them in power stations which store the carbon underground. | Science & Technology | |
| 10/26/2019 | -Temperatures in the Arctic are warming twice as fast as the global average, exacerbating three feedback loops. Melting sea ice does not raise oceans, but melting land ice does; Greenland alone has enough ice to raise levels seven meters. Melting permafrost could release up to 1.5T tons of carbon, speeding up the greenhouse effect. It could also weaken the jet stream, allowing more pockets of cold air to drift south, leading to extended floods and dry spells. | Global | Climate |
| 10/26/2019 | -The “road” half of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—a global infrastructure-building scheme—is a maritime one of seaports and shipping channels. The 22 locations suggest it is designed more for protecting existing trade routes than expanding Chinese influence. | Asia | China |
| 10/26/2019 | -Three quarters of emissions come from 12 countries. However, these politicians are hampered by other policy priorities and a collective action problem between them. The small islands most impacted make up less than 1% of GDP and population. The most encouraging political development is growing activism in rich countries. | Global | Climate |
| 10/26/2019 | -While military victory is out of reach, an abrupt American pull-out would doom Afghanistan to an even bloodier civil war and destabilize the region. Trump should keep negotiations alive and get the best deal possible by convincing the Taliban he is willing to stay. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 10/19/2019 | -As consumers update their smartphones less frequently, Apple is transitioning to services (extended warranties, streaming). | Business & Economics | |
| 10/19/2019 | -At least 4M Venezuelans have emigrated since 2014, the largest displacement in Latin American history. Neighbors—especially Colombia—have been thus far hospitable to refugees, seeking integration rather than camps, but are now struggling. Norway-brokered talks have proceeded unevenly; the best solution may be a national-unity government. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 10/19/2019 | -Blood transfusion from young to old is believed to combat effects of aging, but scientists have found a new cocktail of hormones, inhibitors, and enzymes which showed similar anti-aging effects in mice (sans transfusion). | Science & Technology | |
| 10/19/2019 | -By 2035, the world will have a trillion connected computers in everything from bridges to clothes. They offer convenience and efficiency, but also present challenges around: | Science & Technology | |
| 10/19/2019 | -French retire earlier (60) and live longer (85) than any other OECD country, and receive generous pensions (61% previous earnings, second only to Italy—83%). Macron is the latest to try to simplify the system, but is unlikely to make it solvent. | Europe | France |
| 10/19/2019 | -Hyper-price competition in manufacture of generic drugs has led to an increasingly fragmented and globalized production process and breakdowns/disruptions which drive major shortages. New entrants (e.g. hospitals), expedited regulatory approval, and technological innovations may help. | Business & Economics | |
| 10/19/2019 | -In 2017, 40% of couples met online (60% of homosexual couples). | Other | |
| 10/19/2019 | -New Hubble photographs are the first to confirm planet K2-18b in the goldilocks zone has an atmosphere containing large amounts of water vapor. While the temperature and cloud cover is similar to Earth, its 33-day years could produce intense space weather and UV radiation would be high. | Science & Technology | |
| 10/19/2019 | -Once lauded, Japan’s intelligence service has fallen on hard time for several reasons: (1) police-run IC; (2) risk-averse politicians; (3) poor tradecraft; and (4) despite a landmark 2013 state secrets law, a leaky precludes FVEY sharing. | Asia | Japan |
| 10/19/2019 | -The front-runner in Tunisia’s election is campaigning from jail against an eclectic field of 26 which includes populists and a professor dubbed “the robot” for his tendency to speak in stilted classical Arabic dialect. Nonetheless, turnout is low (~34%) and real power will be decided in upcoming parliamentary elections. | Middle East & Africa | Tunisia |
| 10/12/2019 | -Assad has nearly won the war which displaced half the Syrian population and cost 500,000 lives. Ongoing problems include religious divides, corruption, poverty, inequality, and debt to Iran and Russia. America must stay to keep IS/AQ in check, but the West should limit aid to humanitarian support for refugees. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 10/12/2019 | -By expelling 21 MPs who opposed his suspension of parliament, PM Johnson is transforming the Tories into radical populists. Revealing he has no alternative to the Irish backstop, he called for new elections—the first in which there is no center-right party and no mainstream opposition. | Europe | UK |
| 10/12/2019 | -People in OECD are working longer, both out of desire and necessity. This suggests age discrimination is decreasing, although older employees tend to be more expensive and lack computer skills. | Global | |
| 10/12/2019 | -The former number two in FARC is vowing a return to arms. He will not remobilize 10,000 fighters but may receive support from ELN and Venezuela, making the 2016 peace agreement even harder to implement (government struggling to provide land, technical assistance, transitional justice, and reduce violence). | Americas | Venezuela |
| 10/12/2019 | -The size of the US federal government (2.1M people) has remained relatively constant since the 1960s, having added five departments but also suffered extended hiring freezes. Its most important roles are often the least understood, but the compensation system was designed in 1949 and civil service rules were last updated in 1978. | United States | |
| 10/5/2019 | -Australian politicians focus on “boat people” (who are banished to Nauru/PNG), but 100 times as many enter on planes whereby they can live in work in Australia for years while their applications are processed. | Asia | Australia |
| 10/5/2019 | -Because of crime, weak economics, and corruption, nearly a third of Latin Americans want to emigrate (especially Venezuela, Honduras, El Salvador, and DR). | Americas | Venezuela |
| 10/5/2019 | -Carrie Lam withdrew the extradition bill and indicated support for an independent inquiry into excessive force. But she made no concessions on releasing those arrested or increasing democracy. | Asia | China |
| 10/5/2019 | -Climate change doesn't increase the frequency of hurricanes, but rising temperatures and sea levels have been linked to increases in severity, storm surge, and perhaps even "stalling" of storms. | Global | Climate |
| 10/5/2019 | -Each rationale for Brexit has collapsed: Leavers ensured a brilliant deal; now they advocate no deal. They said that Brexit would permit more free-trade agreements; now they welcome WTO terms. Finally, they pontificated of restoring sovereignty to Parliament; now Johnson has suspended the body. Johnson is miscalculating and setting the UK on a course for disaster; Parliament should act by passing a law requiring the prime minister to ask the EU for an extension or (worst case) filing a vote of no confidence. | Europe | UK |
| 10/5/2019 | -Marijuana use can be traced back as far as 400AD, but its therapeutic use was banished by 1961 international treaty. While regulations hamper studies, it has proven effective against cancer/chemo, MS, and epilepsy. There is some risk of addiction (~10%) or psychosis and bad for adolescents. Most countries (except China and Russia) are liberalizing, starting with medical to build political support and then recreational. By 2024, medical likely to be legal in all US states; recreational in half. | Global | Drugs |
| 10/5/2019 | -Most menu pricing starts with three times the cost of ingredients, the price customers expect to pay, and what the competition charges. | Business & Economics | |
| 10/5/2019 | -Part-time work remains essential for helping women work, but is highly correlated with the gender pay gap. Three reasons: (1) part-time jobs pay less per hour; (2) part-time jobs offer less training and fewer legal rights; (3) part-time work can trap women for longer than expected. | Global | |
| 10/5/2019 | -The framework for managing nuclear weapons (deterrence, arms control, safety measures) will not work for AI. Three applications: allow machines to act without supervision, process big data, aid actual warfare. Pentagon spends $1B (commercial totals $20-30B). Can already analyze IMINT (98% accuracy), analyze SIGINT (NSA Skynet), identify suspicious activity (Project Maven), predictive maintenance, or even high level strategy (e.g. AlphaGo). Needs to reflect human values and remain explainable. | Science & Technology | |
| 10/5/2019 | -With modest congressional support, Trump launched Space Command temporarily based in Colorado, to supposedly be followed by Space Force (since 1986 the Commands wage war, the Services train and equip). There was a Space Command from 1985-2002, but it was moved to Strategic Command with the creation of NORCOM after 9/11. There have been no new services since 1947. | United States | Military |
| 10/5/2019 | -A Oklahoma judge ordered Johnson & Johnson to pay $572M to a state plan to combat opioid addiction, a good precedent for other companies to take responsibility (unlike tobacco the penalties should go straight to programs). Cutting supply will only force addicts to the black market, regulators should instead focus on treatment. Other countries seeking pain relievers should see US as cautionary tale of marketing run amok. | United States | |
| 10/5/2019 | -Like Andrew Carnegie a century before, the Koch brothers donated some of their $50B to meaningful causes like hospitals and universities, but it was largely intended to repair their awful image. Their lobbying against regulations, unions, and entitlements pushed the Republican Party further right than its supporters wanted to go; and their propagation of misinformation on climate change destroyed a healthy bipartisan consensus on the issue. | United States | |
| 9/28/2019 | -Amazonian fires blackened the day time sky in Sao Paulo, South America’s largest city. Bolsonaro’s defunding of environmental agencies has reduced enforcement on farmers which set fires to clear land—though the President ludicrously accuses environmentalists of starting the fires to make him look bad. | Americas | Brazil |
| 9/28/2019 | -At business roundtable, 180 CEOs pledged they will no longer only serve shareholders but customers, staff, suppliers, and communities too. While a noble pledge, “collective capitalism” is a threat to long-term prosperity (the basic condition for capitalism to succeed). It also threatens accountability (how will CEOs know what society wants from their companies?) and dynamism (leans away from change). ESG consumer preferences are captured in profit-focus. Plus, the larger threat is from consolidation which diminishes competition. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/28/2019 | -Companies now hire Second City to train executives to build rapport with employees, embrace creativity ("Yes And"), and develop more entertaining training videos. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/28/2019 | -In the run-up to his election, Netanyahu has increased the pace and transparency around Israeli air strikes against Iran-supported groups in Lebanon, Syria, and possibly Iraq. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 9/28/2019 | -Last year, 5,000 runners were disqualified from the Mexico City Marathon for cheating (shortcuts, bib mules, etc). It’s relatively easy to identify, but not until after awarding the medals. This year, cheaters will be banned for life. | Americas | Mexico |
| 9/28/2019 | -Late night boozy karaoke room sessions following South Korean business meetings are falling out of fashion. Some of the rooms are shifting for single persons to practice their singing alone. | Asia | Korea |
| 9/28/2019 | -Macau, the small former Portuguese territory 65km west of Hong Kong, is unlikely to join in the anti-China protests with a smaller population and economy heavily dependent on the mainland. | Asia | China |
| 9/28/2019 | -Scientists are growing masses of nerve cells (“cerebral organoids”) which are becoming increasingly brain-like. They can be useful for studying and potentially even transplants (though ethical concerns). | Science & Technology | |
| 9/28/2019 | -Spurred by high demand and young facilities, Asia (i.e. China) continues to increase coal production. But in addition to environmental and political risk, bankers are increasingly cutting funding for coal. | Asia | China |
| 9/28/2019 | -The US approved the sale of 66 F-16s to Taiwan, which China had presented as a redline for Bush and Obama. It does little to tip the military balance, but demonstrates Trump’s willingness to break tradition with China. | Asia | China |
| 9/28/2019 | -With transistors now the size of dozens of atoms, Moore's Law nearing obsolescence. But chip-makers are now dialing up performance with larger processors that inhale data to train AI services. The question is whether companies will buy their own or rely on cloud providers. | Science & Technology | |
| 9/28/2019 | -Warren proposed a “No First Use” law on nuclear weapons. But changing policy could limit US options in an era of hypersonic global conventional strike and unsettle US allies from South Korea to the Baltics who rely on uncertainty to deter conventional attacks (and thus incite proliferation). To prevent over-centralization, however, the US could require congressional/cabinet approval of first use. | United States | Military |
| 9/28/2019 | -Matthew Desmond has sparked academic interest in whether evictions cause poverty. Findings are mixed, but the main problem is 75% of those eligible for rental vouchers don’t win the lottery and must remain on waiting lists as long as a decade in places like Washington DC. | United States | Housing |
| 9/28/2019 | -Trump continues to authorize broad ICE raids—increasingly targeting non-criminal immigrants—to keep his deportation numbers up. But they are inefficient use of resources and ineffective for deterring immigration. | United States | Immigration |
| 9/28/2019 | -President Trump (attacking free press) and campus radicals (blocking speakers) are both threats to free speech. Protecting students from unwelcome ideas is like refusing to vaccinate them against measles. States exacerbate social divisions when they try to police subjective speech. Outside of incitement to violence and persistent harassment, governments should regulate speech minimally. | United States | |
| 9/21/2019 | -A compulsory poll in Argentina suggests the ‘Fernandezes’ will defeat incumbent Macri in October’s election, which threatens to return the country into another default. Elected in 2015, Macri had abolished Kirchner’s damaging currency controls, export quotas, and tariffs—though he continues to battle a currency crisis. | Americas | Argentina |
| 9/21/2019 | -Blatant Kremlin interference in Moscow city council elections has transformed into a political crisis. Despite a heavy handed response (2,500 arrests), the opposition movement is identifying new leaders and earning endorsements from musicians/celebrities. | Europe | Russia |
| 9/21/2019 | -Four years after the Houthis first took Sana’a, the KSA/UAE coalition in Yemen is increasingly fragmented, mostly a patchwork of local armed groups with open disdain for the President Hadi, who remains in gilded exile in Riyadh. Southern separatists recently seized Aden from Northern government forces. | Middle East & Africa | Yemen |
| 9/21/2019 | -Kyrgyzstan touts itself Central Asia’s only democracy, with a pluralistic political system and competitive—albeit flawed—elections. However the arrest of a former President smacks of a political vendetta from his former mentor and the current president. | Asia | Kyrgyzstan |
| 9/21/2019 | -Saudi Aramco held its first ever earnings call. It gave no guidance, but its income (and nearly production) exceeds its next five competitors combined. Its long-awaited 5% IPO could come as soon as next year. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 9/21/2019 | -Sea levels will rise half a meter in the next 80 years (150T tons melted ice), causing flooding, erosion, and brine-poisoning farmland. Rather than promulgating cheap flood insurance, the USG should work with local governments to raise awareness, install floodwalls, and improve building codes. | Global | Climate |
| 9/21/2019 | -Paradoxically, legalizing marijuana in CA has shrunk the market. Potential explanations: tight regulations, slow city license distribution, and endless taxes (cultivation, retail, sales, federal). 11 states have now legalized recreational use. | United States | Drugs |
| 9/14/2019 | -80% of space debris burns up upon entering the atmosphere and 99.9% hits populated areas, but as satellites and development increases, engineers are exploring aiming it safely into the ocean or slowing it down. | Science & Technology | |
| 9/14/2019 | -Abe is moderating his approach to changing Article 9 by focusing on rights and governance issues. He needs 2/3 majority plus referendum (polls suggest unpopular). The political calendar is tight (2019 changing emperor, 2020 Olympics, 2021 ends term). | Asia | Japan |
| 9/14/2019 | -About 40% of US transactions are still conducted in cash, compared to less than 20% for Norway. The benefits of cashless payment are efficiency, convenience, and traceability. The cons are vulnerability to technical failures, power blackouts, and cyber-attacks. Governments should (1) prevent monopolies over digital money, (2) maintain obligation for customer privacy, and (3) phase out cash gradually. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/14/2019 | -Buoyed by re-election and popular support, Hindu-nationalist Modi suddenly ended autonomy to Indian-administered Kashmir, splitting it in two, putting under house arrest, and ordering non-residents out. India won't give it up because it helps secure Delhi and sets examples for other regions with desires for independence, but it fans the flame. | Asia | India |
| 9/14/2019 | -China dominates its Sino-Russian relationship. With an economy six times larger and growing, China is Russia’s chief financier, and supplies critical components for weapons. The West should wait until post-Putin Russia eventually looks back West—and then pull a Nixon and go to Moscow. | Asia | China |
| 9/14/2019 | -Confirming a poorly kept secret, a Metallica rep was caught negotiating with Live Nation to sell thousands of tickets directly on secondary markets so prices can exceed face value. Other techniques artists use to make more money are batch sales (Taylor Swift), extended tours (Garth Brooks), and moving to theater (Springsteen). | Business & Economics | |
| 9/14/2019 | -In Guatemala, deans of the Law Schools are responsible for appointing one-third of the supreme court justices. It was meant to reduce corruption but has only brought it into the legal community (proliferation of law schools, horse-trading, degrees). | Americas | Guatemala |
| 9/14/2019 | -Increasingly frequent, heatwaves kill tens of thousands. Cities should publicize the danger, provide cool shaded areas and fresh water, and use more white walls/vegetation in buildings. | Global | |
| 9/14/2019 | -Just as Exxon implemented legendarily strict protocols and safety regulations after the 1989 Valdez spill, companies should learn from the Capital One data breach. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/14/2019 | -Lessons from Microsoft’s drop and resurgence: (1) Think bigger—missed social networks and smartphones over obsession with Windows but recovered with cloud (2) Rapaciousness may not pay—cult of Windows led to antitrust showdown, could have embraced Linux (3) Work with regulators—designed Azure to accommodate data protection laws and remained untouched by current privacy backlash. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/14/2019 | -PM Johnson may lead one of the bumpiest and shortest governments in UK history. He has already exceeded May in making unrealistic promises on Brexit (rejects backstop, refuses exit bill). His primary asset is charisma, but time is short for a deal. | Europe | UK |
| 9/14/2019 | -Since the 1970s, Brazil has lost 17% of its Amazon forest, causing extinctions of tens of thousands of species, changing weather patterns, and releasing carbon which worsens global warming. Bolsonaro’s development-focused policies will expedite the desforestation past 20%, dangerously close to the threshold in which deforestation becomes a self-fulfilling cycle. | Americas | Brazil |
| 9/14/2019 | -The US heaped third-party sanctions against companies operating in Venezuela (primarily Russian and Chinese). Sanctions are now on par with those against Iran and North Korea. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 9/14/2019 | -Violence in Afghanistan last year was the worst since 1988—and worse than Syria. The core of the Afghanistan deal is the US reduces its 14,000 troops and Taliban promises no staging ground for international terrorism. Remaining troops would withdraw gradually as power-sharing and constitutional change occurs. Other challenges: (1) With Ghani’s legitimacy disputed, unclear who represents Afghan state. (2) Trump hampers negotiations by domestically giving November 2020 withdrawal deadline. (3) India occupying Kashmir. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 9/14/2019 | -WeWork’s parent company is going public, but despite a lot of properties it lost $2B in 2018. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/14/2019 | -While domestic right-wing extremists now make up around 70% of US ideological killings since 2009, the counter terrorism apparatus remains focused on foreign terrorists. | United States | Terrorism |
| 9/14/2019 | -While Indian Americans make up only 1% of the population, many are highly educated, wealthy, and in professions like engineering or medicine. | Asia | India |
| 9/14/2019 | -US held 19th annual Sea Breeze exercise in Black Sea. The US is helping the Ukrainian Navy, which lost 75% of its ships overnight, build a "mosquito fleet" of small agile assets. | United States | Military |
| 9/14/2019 | -Mueller Report by the numbers: 22 months, 40 staff, 34 indictments (26 Russians), 500 search warrants, 500 interviews, 2,800 subpoenas, 448 pages. | United States | |
| 9/7/2019 | -Trump’s “go home” tweet reveals his approach to 2020 election. Only very few voters hold old-style racist views on issues like interracial marriage, but a large number believe that “undeserving groups are getting ahead while [my] group is left behind.” | United States | Politics |
| 9/7/2019 | -After calling Pakistan a faithless ally and cutting aid eight months ago, Trump heaped praise on Imram Khan’s visit. It is probably to win support for removing troops from Afghanistan. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 9/7/2019 | -Australia has the world’s highest minimum wage (55% of median wage). Surprisingly, unemployment has fallen steadily. It hopes higher earnings will boost inflation, which is below its 2-3% target. | Asia | Australia |
| 9/7/2019 | -British students reading history has dropped by 10% over the decade. PhDs are also focusing on increasingly niche/abstruse subjects. Those who don't understand history are condemned to repeat it. | Europe | UK |
| 9/7/2019 | -Europe’s Turkey policy is failing: weak sanctions for illegal drilling near Cyprus, F-35 removal for buying S-400. Erdogan is not particularly strong; Europe should threaten strong sanctions to reverse the neighbors drift. | Europe | Turkey |
| 9/7/2019 | -Kabul has massive wedding halls which can support 5 simultaneous 1,000-person weddings at once. They cost around $9,000—and as the troop presence dwindles, cash is in short supply. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 9/7/2019 | -President Moon left comfort women statue outside Japanese embassy and ROK court seized two MHI assets as compensation for WWII forced labor. In response, Japan slapped export controls on chemicals critical to South Korea’s semiconductor and smartphone industries. | Asia | Japan |
| 9/7/2019 | -Since May, the Strait of Hormuz has seen six tankers sabotaged, one seized, and two drones shot down. This tension has Gulf states nervous. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 9/7/2019 | -The Kremlin tried to thwart opposition candidates for local Moscow elections using thugs who intimidated volunteers and threw excrement at candidates. Just as the candidates reached the required number of backers, the electoral commission simply disqualified them, triggering massive protests. | Europe | Russia |
| 9/7/2019 | -The layout of a parliamentary chamber sets the tone for the political style. Britain is a chapel, US/France is hemicycle, Slovenia is concentric circles, Russia/China is massive theater. A study of Iceland, where seats are assigned randomly, found there was more bipartisan cooperation. | Other | |
| 9/7/2019 | -The LDP will continue its practically one-state rule of Japan, benefiting from a 17 day cap on campaigning, low turnout, and old/cautious voters. | Asia | Japan |
| 9/7/2019 | -After forcing asylum seekers to remain in Mexico, administration is now declining those who pass through other countries without rejection (over 60%). Under international and US law, people are entitled to asylum if they face persecution because of race, religion, nationality, social group, or political opinion. US should instead increase judges and clear backlog. | United States | Immigration |
| 9/7/2019 | -America is the only rich country without a law on paid leave for new parents (OECD average is 18 weeks maternity leave). It has growing support, but funding sources remains uncertain. | United States | |
| 8/31/2019 | -America reached 121 months of economic growth, the longest since records started in 1854. Most previous recessions were caused by industrial slumps or oil-price shocks, but today's economy is more stable, based on services and intangibles. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/31/2019 | -Combined Space Operations Center (e.g. SSA): Vandenberg AFB (CA); National Space Defense Center (War): Schriever AFB (CO). ASAT (kinetic, laser, dazzling) capabilities from earth or space improving. Shift toward constellations. Should expand 1967 Outer Space Treaty to ban all weapons (currently just WMDs). | United States | Military |
| 8/31/2019 | -Current law (1967 Treaty) presumes states will dominate space--not companies. Key areas to mature are debris/collision liability (currently a gentleman's agreement) and resource extraction (probably a high seas model). | Science & Technology | |
| 8/31/2019 | -Elon Musk announced Neuralink, which would shoot threads into the brain through a hole in the skull creating a "neutral lace." | Science & Technology | |
| 8/31/2019 | -James Watt, inventor of the steam engine will be replaced on the 50 pound bill by Alan Turing, paladin of computing. | Europe | UK |
| 8/31/2019 | -Matteo Salvini has become the most popular man in Europe by whipping anger against immigrants and the EU. The Commission should enter negotiations over Italy's next budget, prioritizing structural reform over spending cuts. | Europe | Italy |
| 8/31/2019 | -SPACE: Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a more mature private sector promise the next 50 years will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. | Global | |
| 8/31/2019 | -Venezuela's economy will shrink by 25% this year, inflation is at 445,482%, and Maduro's government has murdered over 6,800 people since January 2018. The only hope is negotiations between the government an opposition in Barbados this week. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 8/24/2019 | -The new right is not an evolution of conservatism, but a repudiation of it. It is zealous, ideological, and cavalier with the truth—advocating personality cult and revolution over reason and caution. It is also pushing the left further left. | United States | Politics |
| 8/24/2019 | -1.7% of Israel's population is Ethiopian Jews who fled tyranny and famine in the 1980s. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 8/24/2019 | -A former FARC commander has gone missing from a reintegration camp. Cocaine production in Colombia is increasing. Cancer fears prompted a ban on airborne spraying, meaning the army will have to resort to intensive manual eradication. | Americas | Colombia |
| 8/24/2019 | -AMLO has embodied personal austerity, shifted gov’t spending to social programs, and deployed the National Guard to violent cities. But economic growth has stalled, and critics accuse him of focusing benefits within his political movement. | Americas | Mexico |
| 8/24/2019 | -German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen will likely succeed Jean-Claude Juncker as President of the European Commission. IMF alumni Christine Lagarde will replace Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank. | Europe | |
| 8/24/2019 | -Studies have found incumbents can be hurt by hometown college football teams losing, and helped by rain on election day which increases people's risk aversion. Counterintuitively, incumbents are falling even when polls indicate satisfaction. This may be because (1) people are older (2) people vote on hedonistic rather than evaluative happiness; (3) populists are using social media more effectively. | Global | |
| 8/24/2019 | -Syria's GDP is 60% below pre-war levels; rebuilding will cost $250B. Ironically, it is suffering from oil shortages, and American sanctions are blocking Iranian shipments. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 8/24/2019 | -The international community is hopelessly divided in Libya’s Civil War. But Gen. Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA)’s campaign for Tripoli is stalling against the Government of National Accord (GNA), presenting an opportunity for fresh diplomacy. | Middle East & Africa | Libya |
| 8/24/2019 | -CBP is arresting ~100,000 migrants per month, a nine-fold increase from two years ago. 424 immigration judges are responsible for hearing 892,517 outstanding cases, with hearing dates currently being set for late 2023. | United States | Immigration |
| 8/24/2019 | -Amazon is eyeing billions in federal contracts, though Washington's mood is turning against big tech, competitors claim AWS has been favored, and some shareholders oppose association with government programs (e.g. facial recognition). | Business & Economics | |
| 8/24/2019 | -In his first term, Justice Kavanaugh was unexpectedly moderate, voting with Roberts 90% of the time, but Gorsuch only 67%. | United States | |
| 8/17/2019 | -Best US-Iran outcome is another deal, but "maximum pressure" campaign is limiting room for action on both sides. Iran urgently needs sanction relief and negotiations/trust building take time. War is practically unimaginable but cyber bullets have already begun. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 8/17/2019 | -German anti-Semitic right-wingers assassinated the pro-refugee foreign minister in Berlin. An AfD politician refused to stand for a his moment of silence. Far-right extremism surged during the refugee crisis and hasn’t come down. | Europe | Germany |
| 8/17/2019 | -India has a water management problem, not a water problem. They should stop promoting greedy crops such as rice and sugarcane, do more to curb rampant pollution, install meters, and apply realistic prices to regulate water consumption. | Asia | India |
| 8/17/2019 | -Istanbul rebuked President Erdogan by overwhelmingly voting for for the opposition mayor in his fabricated re-run. | Europe | Turkey |
| 8/17/2019 | -London's financial district ("the City") accounts for 37% of global currency trading, but businesses are already fleeing to mainland Europe. EU should be wary of Balkanization; London of losing the 3% of GDP in tax revenue the City provides. | Europe | UK |
| 8/17/2019 | -ROK is experimenting with putting pedestrian traffic lights on the ground to help people glued to their smartphones. | Asia | Korea |
| 8/17/2019 | -Saudi Aramco IPO ran aground last year over differences between MBS, Aramco, and legal advisors on where to list. Yet its prospects have gotten a boost from a $70B acquisition of Sabic, a successful first international bond offering in April, and its first earnings call in August. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 8/17/2019 | -Since 2000, there has been a trend toward consolidation (e.g. telecoms, airlines, defense)—and higher profits. But in recent months, investors and regulators are beginning to decry mergers (UTC stock fell 12%; Sprint/T-Mobile blocked). | Business & Economics | |
| 8/17/2019 | -The polio eradication campaign has stalled—especially in Pakistan where Islamic radicals consider it a Western conspiracy. Vaccinators are trying to be less intrusive by dropping armed guards and asking fewer questions. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 8/17/2019 | -The UAE is quietly withdrawing troops from Yemen. The war has stalled in Sana’a and the northern highlands and UAE is increasingly vulnerable to Iran. | Middle East & Africa | UAE |
| 8/17/2019 | -Elizabeth Warren believes her 2% wealth tax on net worths over $50M will hit .05% of the population and raise over $200B. Its problems are valuation (e.g. antiques), avoidance (e.g. overseas), and economic impact (i.e. assuming 5% return, 3% tax ~60% tax on investment returns). | United States | |
| 8/17/2019 | -US Women's soccer team filed a lawsuit against the US Soccer Federation under the Equal Pay Act and Civil Rights Act. USSF will have to explain the gap according to one of four criteria: a seniority system, a merit system, a pay system based on quantity or quality of output, or any other factor apart from sex. Women earned slightly more in ticket sales, though revenue from broadcast is harder to measure. | United States | |
| 8/10/2019 | -A liberal London mayor turned Brexiteer/bumbling foreign minister, Boris Johnson’s lack of political conviction has become his strength, as each projects themselves on him. The best case is he uses his salesmanship to hawk a deal; the worst is he pulls Tories far right. | Europe | UK |
| 8/10/2019 | -China is beginning to slow its investment in Africa, perhaps due to uneven project performance and increasing concerns about corruption. | Asia | China |
| 8/10/2019 | -Facebook will launch a digital currency the Libra in 2020. It will be backed by a reserve fund holding government bonds, administered by an independent body overseeing the anonymized central database, and open for other firms to create digital wallets allowing customers to use Libras. It will make digital payments easier, but a massive exodus from banks could generate a solvency panic, and it gives the independent body power over governments. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/10/2019 | -In the Middle East, there are often duplicative security lines for each faction (e.g. Beirut has Hezbollah, Sunni Muslims, and Maronite Christians. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 8/10/2019 | -While the geostrategic relationship remains strong, India-US trade relations remain rocky, with both nationalists clamoring about each others' tariffs. US could open a full review, which is what prompted trade war with China. | Asia | India |
| 8/10/2019 | -Xi has done more than his predecessors to strengthen the PLA, increasingly focusing on jointness in five operational theaters. | Asia | China |
| 8/10/2019 | -Reparations for slave descendants is morally appealing but flawed, as Obama declared in 2014. Recipient selection would be impractical and would ignore other discriminated groups (e.g. Native Americans). Better to focus on socioeconomically needy. | United States | Race |
| 8/10/2019 | -Texas and California have 20% of the US population—other states can learn from Texas’ liberal housing laws and California’s liberal immigration policies. | United States | |
| 8/3/2019 | -Presidential debates matter much more in primaries than the general election, because most voters are not yet locked into a camp. Andrew Yang’s appeal hinges on economic anxiety, advocating a universal basic income to address displacement from automation and AI. | United States | Politics |
| 8/3/2019 | -Netanyahu's roll out of "Trump Heights" in the Golan Heights is especially empty given it has no plan, budget, and in his caretaker role he lacks authority. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 8/3/2019 | -Putin has rewarded several of his powerful personal body guards with prime real estate and political posts--most of which they are not qualified for. | Europe | Russia |
| 8/3/2019 | -Harvey Weinstein's long-delayed trial demonstrates the challenges of making sexual assault allegations stick. Despite ~90 accusers, Weinstein faces only two criminal charges, a dozen or so civil damages, and a New York civil-rights suit for endangering employees. Fear of public trial, statutes of limitations, and proof beyond a reasonable doubt may yield a settlement sans prison. | United States | |
| 7/27/2019 | -Trump is the only president to never have reached 50% national approval rating. | United States | Politics |
| 7/27/2019 | -A recent study found promotions are largely based on salesmanship skills which are actually a negative indicator of managerial and strategic success. The "Dilbert Principle" suggests the worst people are promoted because they are least qualified to be doing actual work. Constant promotion seeking means endlessly seeking favorable feedback; best to stick to what you enjoy. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/27/2019 | -All six Gulf sovereign wealth funds are beginning to act like VCs, investing in silicon valley companies (e.g. KSA PIF 5% share in Uber). | Middle East & Africa | |
| 7/27/2019 | -An Arizona man being tried for conspiring to harbor illegal aliens is defending himself on religious freedom grounds (required to support those in need). | United States | Immigration |
| 7/27/2019 | -Hong Kong is protesting a government proposal to allow extradition to China. | Asia | China |
| 7/27/2019 | -Raytheon to buy UTC, SalesForce to buy Tableau. T-Mobile/Sprint and Fiat-Chrysler/Renault blocked. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/27/2019 | -Senegal is peaceful and growing at 7%, but many children are sent to religious schools where they are forced to beg for money all day. | Middle East & Africa | Senegal |
| 7/27/2019 | -Two years after a Kurdish independence referendum promoted backlash from Baghdad, they are enjoying more autonomy and economic growth. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 7/27/2019 | -While expanding the EU has fallen out of favor (last was Croatia in 2013), it should honor it's promise to North Macedonia (also joining NATO). | Europe | |
| 7/27/2019 | -Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Eun, and Ho Chi Minh, all use family name first, but Shinzo Abe is westernized. | Other | |
| 7/27/2019 | -Life expectancy gap between blacks and whites has declined to under 5 years--due to less crime/AIDS (and also the opioid crisis) | United States | Race |
| 7/27/2019 | -With funerals costing ~9,000, NY pays Rikers Island prisoners $1/hr to bury unclaimed dead on Hart Island. NC cremates and holds 3 years before throwing in ocean. | United States | |
| 7/20/2019 | -Even if the Democrats win the Presidency, their odds of winning the Senate are under 30% (rural bias, limited seats) | United States | Politics |
| 7/20/2019 | -Although Russia has completed some infrastructure projects (bridge and highway) in Crimea, the luster of annexation has worn off and it suffers from Western sanctions and typical Russia problems (corruption, inflation, repression). | Europe | Russia |
| 7/20/2019 | -Baseball's 1839 Cooperstown invention by Abner Doubleday is apocryphal. Really a variation of cricket pushed by sporting goods magnate Albert Spalding as a commercial opportunity to sell a uniquely American sport at a time the UK was supporting the Confederacy. | Other | Sports |
| 7/20/2019 | -Brexit could counterintuitively be the opportune moment to make English the official EU language. | Europe | |
| 7/20/2019 | -Italian was never really "invented," but emerged over time as a erroneous form of Latin. | Other | |
| 7/20/2019 | -Psychodelic mushrooms have proven effective to help with depression, addiction, OCD, and late-life anxiety. | Global | Drugs |
| 7/20/2019 | -ROK has bureaucracy to notionally run DPRK ("five northern provinces"), but it's mostly a boondoggle. | Asia | Korea |
| 7/20/2019 | -RTN-UTC merger could generate R&D synergies (e.g. hypersonics) or simply be reconglomeration. Will divest Otis (elevators) and Carrier (AC) before merger. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/20/2019 | -SpaceX's first 60 (of 12,000) StarLink satellites generated enough light pollution to disrupt astronomers' optical/radio satellite observatories. | Science & Technology | |
| 7/20/2019 | -Thailand: Five years after seizing power in a coup and forcing constitutional reform, Prayuth Chan-ocha was finally affirmed as PM. | Asia | Thailand |
| 7/20/2019 | -Tory PM hopefuls are not just accepting no-deal Brexit but proposing reckless tax cuts | Europe | UK |
| 7/20/2019 | -Unlike Rosh Hashanah and Chinese New Year, Muslims still rely on the naked eye to see the waxing crescent moon marking the end of Ramadan. Thus, Eid al-Fitr is celebrated at different times throughout the Middle East. | Other | |
| 7/20/2019 | -Windmills are being replaced by more efficient UAVs and tethered kites which generate energy being unreeled. | Science & Technology | |
| 7/13/2019 | -After misadventures in Afghanistan (1979) and Georgia (2008), Russia’s Syrian intervention has saved Assad, made Russia kingmaker in Syria, and returned it as power-broker in the ME for the first time since the dissolution of the USSR. Effective military (relying mostly on airpower and local proxies) and diplomacy (managed to stay friendly with both Israel/Iran, Turkey/Kurds, KSA/Qatar). Some states may be flirting with Russia to regain US attention. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 7/13/2019 | -After years of post-crisis fiscal caution about high debt, liberals want to spend more on climate change and social programs while conservatives passed a massive tax cut pushing the deficit above 4% GDP (in good economy). This is worrying—conditions change and benefits are hard to take away. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/13/2019 | -Aviation Tech Quarterly: Duopoly with complex global supply chains. Digital Twins key to production targets. Nearing crewless aircraft, though regulations and pilots will instruct. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/13/2019 | -Bolsonaro is attacking crime by weakening gun regulations, protecting overzealous police, and strengthening mafia-esque militias. | Americas | Brazil |
| 7/13/2019 | -Netanyahu's opportunistic right-wing rival Avigdor Lieberman brought down his coalition for a new election in September. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 7/13/2019 | -The next PM (Johnson, Gove, or Hunt) could well embrace no-deal Brexit, but there will no doubt be political and legal machinations to stop it. This could prompt a crisis in Britain's "unwritten" Constitution. | Asia | China |
| 7/13/2019 | -Tim Cook's active lobbying has thus far insulated Apple from Trump's trade war, but tariff escalation and US Huawei ban threaten retribution. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/13/2019 | -US state “heartbeat” laws banning abortion from 6 weeks will be struck down, but depends if the Supreme Court hears challenge (unlikely before 2020 election). Shouldn’t overturn Roe: Most Americans support; price will be paid by poor women who will turn to drink, drugs, or worse; beneficial effects for society; pro-abortion maximalist position (fertilized eggs are people) should ban day-after pills. | United States | Abortion |
| 7/13/2019 | -US-China relations have soured. US can’t shut China out (economic cost) or wait for internal unrest (Xi is strong). It can best position itself by welcoming immigrants, funding science, and protecting the liberal world order. Balances are required between protecting IP and preserving free flow of ideas, people, capital, and goods. Should work together on DPRK, space, cyberspace, and climate change (as the US-USSR did on arms reduction, counter-terrorism). | Asia | China |
| 7/6/2019 | -Another round of US sanctions (and pressure on allies to fall in line) finally prompted Iran to begin gradual violations of the 2015 nuclear deal. Bolton is trying to spark regime change but is emboldening hardliners against Rouhani. Hopefully the dealmaker Trump can ward off grave consequences of miscalculation. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 7/6/2019 | -Despite being limited by law, dowries (the price a groom’s family demands to admit the bride into the household) persist in about half of marriages in South Asia. They don’t make sense, though. There are more men than women, and men’s earnings potentials are higher. | Asia | |
| 7/6/2019 | -Despite sluggish growth, carbon emissions, underperforming armies, and a paucity of world-class technology companies, Europeans are regaining some faith in the EU. Upcoming EU elections—the second largest in the world—are likely to produce a lively and dysfunctional body. | Europe | |
| 7/6/2019 | -Since 2016, Manchester City, Liverpool, and Tottenham have been signing younger, cheaper players from less flashy clubs, which has already paid off for them as players hit their prime. | Other | Sports |
| 7/6/2019 | -South Korea has a needlessly confusing age system: most Koreans consider babies one year old when they are born and everyone collectively turns a year older on January 1st (formerly lunar New Year). | Asia | Korea |
| 7/6/2019 | -There have been 21 suicides by reality-TV participants since 2004. They are starting to be taken more seriously, partially because of greater recognition of mental health challenges. | Other | |
| 7/6/2019 | -US-China relations have soured. US can’t shut China out (economic cost) or wait for internal unrest (Xi is strong). It can best position itself by welcoming immigrants, funding science, and protecting the liberal world order. Balances are required between protecting IP and preserving free flow of ideas, people, capital, and goods. Should work together on DPRK, space, cyberspace, and climate change (as the US-USSR did on arms reduction, counter-terrorism). | Asia | China |
| 6/29/2019 | -Although US politics have become more polarized along racial lines, studies indicate both explicit and implicit racial bias are steadily decreasing. | United States | Race |
| 6/29/2019 | -Although Luigi Di Maio’s M5S has nearly twice as many seats, Matteo Salvini’s Northern League is riding strong poll numbers into EU elections which may tempt him to abandon M5S and seek a coalition with the formerly neo-fascist Brothers of Italy and what is left of Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. | Europe | Italy |
| 6/29/2019 | -Americans are more religious than other countries (half pray every day), but also—despite occasional flare-ups—more tolerant (WWII shifted attitudes decisively). | United States | Religion |
| 6/29/2019 | -DPRK: Mr. Kim has made history meeting key world leaders, but overplayed his hand with Mr. Trump (didn’t expect the US to know of a secret facility). Kim's only leverage is with Mr. Moon, but in picking a fight, many South Koreans are losing patience/hope. | Asia | Korea |
| 6/29/2019 | -Guaido's rally failed, perhaps due to backtracking by the Chief Justice or discovery by Cuban spies. For senior Venezuelan generals to turn on Maduro, the US needs to convince them they'll not only have amnesty, but their corporate interests will be protected. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 6/29/2019 | -In a major concession to the gilets jaunes, Macron announced the abolition of Ecole Nationale d'Administration (ENA), his alma mater and the elite university which provides nearly all senior public/private leaders. | Europe | France |
| 6/29/2019 | -Indonesia plans to move its capital from Jakarta to Palangkaraya, which is less crowded but still polluted and sinking (Jakarta’s coastal districts may be under water in 30 years). | Asia | Indonesia |
| 6/29/2019 | -Kushner’s Middle East plan pledges to avoid labels on divisive issues and focus on compromise. But Trump’s politically-motivated Israeli bias provides reason for skepticism—it could threaten Abbas’ hold on power. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 6/29/2019 | -More than 20,000 have died in extrajudicial killings since Duterte took power, yet Filipinos like his authoritarian approach to crime and the economy is generally well-managed. | Asia | Philippines |
| 6/29/2019 | -Norwegians found a beluga whale with Russian camera mounts. In 2016, the Russian ddefence ministry published a tender for five new dolphins for espionage. | Europe | Russia |
| 6/29/2019 | -Receding from the spotlight, Chancellor Merkel is rumored to resign before 2021 to a senior EU post, handing power to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK). | Europe | Germany |
| 6/29/2019 | -Russian opposition leader Alexis Navalny has shifted his focus from abstract issues like human rights and freedom of speech to pragmatic ones like working conditions and wages. He’s also seeking alliances with unions. | Europe | Russia |
| 6/29/2019 | -Sports still has no objective way to classify intersex people (even presence of testes/Y-chromosome fail in certain cases). A testosterone threshold may be the best alternative but the threshold may vary by sport. | Science & Technology | |
| 6/29/2019 | -The West has over 14,000 troops in Africa (half are from the US) training largely inept local security forces to fight at least 10,500 fragmented insurgents. Local governments must disband ethnic militias, curb police corruption, and open up to investment and infrastructure improvements. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 6/29/2019 | -YouTube accounts for 11% of the world’s internet bandwidth, second only to Netflix. While Facebook takes the most criticism, YouTube is home to terrorists/pedophiles, and its algorithms keep users by recommending incrementally more extreme videos. AI can police copyright violations, but is unlikely to reliably identify harassment or fake news. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/29/2019 | -Police are increasingly using social workers to respond to 911 calls, reducing hospitalizations/jail time and improving community relations. People experiencing psychiatric crises often call 911 because they lack alternatives. | United States | Policing |
| 6/29/2019 | -Americans age 18 to 29 who report no sex in 12 months doubled to 23% last year. Reasons: (a) marrying later; (b) economic duress means living with parents/low confidence; (c) dating apps erode social skills/increase reluctance to date; (d) men fear #MeToo backlash. | United States | |
| 6/29/2019 | -The NY AG is investigating the NRA’s charity (tax-free) status, resulting in the removal of ceremonial President Oliver North (of Iran-Contra fame) and a law suit against its questionable advertising agency Ackerman McQueen. The number of Americans who own guns is declining, although people who possess them own more than they used to. | United States | |
| 6/15/2019 | -As venture capital cools on unicorns, they are increasingly seeking IPOs. But publically-listed unicorns posted combined losses of $14B last year. This is justified by “blitzscaling” to conquer winner-takes-all markets, but customers are rarely locked into one firm (e.g. ride sharing). And economies of scale have yet to translate into higher margins. 88/156 US unicorns are in Silicon Valley. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/15/2019 | -Driven primarily by Chinese modernization, Japan’s new NDPG calls for 11% increased spending, new offensive capabilities (F-35Bs, JASSM-ER), and focus on cyber, space, and EW. Abe has loosened military restrictions, but largely abandoned his ambition of amending Article 9. | Asia | Japan |
| 6/15/2019 | -From 2009-18, Jacob Zuma systematically plundered the state, crippling investment and government services (he now faces 700 counts of corruption). His ANC replacement, Cyril Ramaphosa, deserves re-election because the opposition Democratic Alliance has good ideas but lacks widespread support to follow through. | Middle East & Africa | South Africa |
| 6/15/2019 | -Stratolaunch is the largest airplane ever flown. It’s designed to carry rockets as close to space as possible before launching them into orbit, saving fuel. | Science & Technology | |
| 6/15/2019 | -The UK set up a lab in 2010, paid for by Huawei but run by the British to review its kit and software. It found no backdoors, but plenty of bugs. Britain's decision to grant Huawei a limited 5G role is correct, though it must conduct continuous monitoring, limit the scope of activities, and demand improved software and transparency. | Europe | UK |
| 6/15/2019 | -Ukraine's new comedian President Volodymyr Zelensky promised a pro-Western, anti-corruption stance, but has many groups jockeying for influence. He will be up against a parliament (he's not yet built a party), Russia (Putin will test his mettle), and the powerful oligarchs (already accusations of ties). | Europe | Ukraine |
| 6/15/2019 | -WikiLeaks did some good in its early years, exposing political corruption and military wrongdoing. But the reckless publication of cables and nefarious engagement with Guccifer 2.0 is indefensible. Assange is facing bail violation in Britain (1yr), rape in Sweden (4yr), hacking in US (5yr). | Global | |
| 6/15/2019 | -DC’s 700,000 residents have no voting representation in Congress and the city budget must be approved by Congress. But statehood is gaining momentum among Democrats for both principles (disenfranchisement) and self-interest (90% Democrat). | United States | |
| 6/15/2019 | -Frustrated with fee packages and perceived conflicts of interest, the Writers Guild of America has instructed its 13,000 members to dismiss agents that have no committed to a new code of conduct. Most did so (albeit regrettably). | United States | |
| 6/15/2019 | -The federal minimum wage ($7.25) is largely irrelevant, as local governments are fine-tuning their wage floors to factors like economic conditions, geographical differences in productivity, and the bargaining power of workers. | United States | |
| 6/15/2019 | -With a rigid two-party system, the US President is--in effect--above the law (at least while in office). Congress should continue calling hearings, but an impeachment that fails on party lines is worse than useless (would embolden Trump for 2020). | United States | |
| 6/8/2019 | -Across Europe, fed up voters have abandoned traditional parties and opted for new groups, some on the extremes and others harder to pin down. Political fragmentation has caused protracted delays to government formation in Germany, Italy, Sweden Estonia, and Finland in just the past year. | Europe | |
| 6/8/2019 | -Despite being the CEO president, lobbying is no easier under Trump because (1) he’s an outsider; (2) his bureaucracy is inefficient/power shifts quickly; and (3) businesses fear association with him. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/8/2019 | -In 2017, Apple sued Qualcomm—whose baseband processors it needs—about how it charges for its patents (5% of total retail rather than royalties from component makers). Qualcomm countersued Apple for patent infringement and stopped providing test software. Surprisingly, Qualcomm won in a settlement. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/8/2019 | -In December, the MLB agreed to pay Cuba 15-20% of contracts (plus income tax) for players to join their teams. Trump cancelled, ostensibly for “human trafficking” although more practically to keep money away from the repressive Cuban government. Yasiel Puig was held hostage in a Mexican motel for weeks trying to escape to the US. | Americas | Cuba |
| 6/8/2019 | -Indonesia: Jokowi has managed the economy well and helped the rural poor by building infrastructure and cutting bureaucracy. But he is fighting a dirty re-election campaign, pressuring opposition figures and relentlessly branding himself Islamic. | Asia | Indonesia |
| 6/8/2019 | -Over the past 25 years, central bank autonomy has kept inflation remarkably low, benefiting all. Recently, that independence has come under attack from populist nationalists seeking re-election in the US, UK, Turkey, India, and elsewhere. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/8/2019 | -Pakistan: PM Khan is trying to get religious schools to teach a broader range of subjects to gain government accreditation. The ISI is no longer heavily infiltrated by radical jihadists. Khan has made progress against corruption but the economy is struggling. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 6/8/2019 | -UK MPs are already jockeying to succeed May. Three hurdles: (1) removing May; (2) winning support among Tory MPs; and (3) passing a ballot of all 120,000 Conservative members. The assumption is an establishment (reformed Remainer) will face off against an insurgent (Brexiteer). | Europe | UK |
| 6/8/2019 | -Under pressure to form a government with his hard-right partner, Netanyahu may just annex swaths of the West Bank. This would breach international law, alienate Arab states that have been moving closer to Europe, and could bring a future apartheid-like state. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 6/1/2019 | -Africa is undergoing a wave of “dinosaurs extinction” from Zimbabwe to Algeria to Sudan, where 30 year dictator Omar al-Bashir finally stepped down after four months of protests over rising food prices. Meanwhile, Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar is making a push for Tripoli (though he may be overreaching). | Middle East & Africa | |
| 6/1/2019 | -After three months and nearly 92 hours of debate, Macron declared the “Great National Debate” over. The mass of feedback was digitized, published, and analyzed using AI. The findings are largely contradictory (e.g. solve climate change but no climate tax), but is succeeded in putting the gilets jaunes in perspective, releasing national frustration, and proving Macron would listen. | Europe | France |
| 6/1/2019 | -Berliners—with rents growing 50% in the past decade—are collecting signatures for a referendum on if the government should force companies owning over 3,000 properties to sell them to the city (may not pass courts). -Construction has not kept pace with the flow of people to cities and is slowed by: not-in-my-backyard votes, construction sector labor shortages, and rent brakes which discourage new building. | Europe | Germany |
| 6/1/2019 | -Despite an extension until October, Teresa May is increasingly vulnerable and lacks authority. While MPs openly plot her demise, the country remains fiercely divided. | Europe | UK |
| 6/1/2019 | -Governments are right to worry about private education’s contribution to inequality, but they should mimic its virtues in the public sector, including freedom from union power and independent management—the root of private’s superior performance and greater efficiency. | Global | Education |
| 6/1/2019 | -Labeling the IRGC a terrorist group may further politically isolate Rouhani, but only makes the IRGC’s smuggling networks more lucrative. The US labeled the connected Quds Force terrorists in 2007 before allying with them against ISIS in Syria. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 6/1/2019 | -Whereas competitors are focused on AI in their products, Amazon uses it to improve internal processes between their ~160 global fulfillment warehouses supporting the $270B online-shopping company. AmazonGo, a cashier-less grocery uses hundreds of cameras to monitor which products patrons take, and then they are charged to an account using a bar code at the door (no facial recognition). | Business & Economics | |
| 5/25/2019 | -Andy Marshall (“Yoda) ran ONA from 1973, comparing long-term (10yr) US capabilities in weaponry, training, efficiency, spending, deployment, planning, decision-making, readiness, etc. He predicted the end of the Cold War but never could wrap his head around cyberwar (he had his e-mails read to him). | United States | Military |
| 5/25/2019 | -A recent study finds political engagement is strongly correlated with happiness. It could be unhappy people drop out of the political system, or they could both be linked to a third factor like marriage. Evaluative happiness is how you assess your life; hedonic is your specific current emotions. | Global | |
| 5/25/2019 | -Bouteflika stepped down, but there remains uncertainty about Algeria’s future. The acting leader is a regime loyalist, the army chief is trying (unsuccessfully) to manage the process, and the opposition remains an uneasy alliance of Islamists and progressives. | Middle East & Africa | Algeria |
| 5/25/2019 | -Hypersonic (Mach 5+) Missiles have been an aspiration since 1928, but are real possibility in the early 2020s. Engineering challenges include surface temperatures up to 2,000ºC, which erode protective coating, fried electronics, and bend it out of shape. They are designed to sustain speeds over long distances, maneuver as they do, and hit targets with pinpoint accuracy. Area defenses are unlikely to be able to shoot down midcourse; point defenses (e.g. THAAD), may be able to get them when they slowdown on approach to targets. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/25/2019 | -Israel: Netanyahu busted bureaucracy, bolstered the tech economy, and improved relations with many Arab rulers. But he has also taken no meaningful steps towards Palestinians (annexed much of the West Bank), hampered diplomatic effort with Iran, and—most concerning of all—eroded Israel’s democratic norms through populist fear-mongering, bullying, and (alleged) corruption. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 5/25/2019 | -Like previous inflection points (e.g. exploitation of fossil fuels, domestication of crops), synthetic biology will bring both prosperity (self-growing buildings) and damaging side effects (pathogens). There are also numerous ethical concerns (designing people). The good news is unlike previously, people are thinking ahead about these challenges. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/25/2019 | -Mexican President AMLO is wrong to seek an apology from Spain for its colonial period. Studies find trauma suffered by survivors lasts at most four generations. Beyond that, history should simply be understood on its own terms rather than politicized. | Americas | Mexico |
| 5/25/2019 | -The European Parliament may soon end Europe’s 23-year experiment with Daylight Savings time, in response to studies which show increased health problems in the days after losing an hour. | Europe | |
| 5/18/2019 | -Trump claimed victory from the Mueller report, but it still produced 37 indictments and he remains under investigation for campaign-finance violations, bank/insurance fraud, and security clearances. Now Democrats in 2020 can talk about things voters care about (healthcare) rather than impeachment. | United States | Politics |
| 5/18/2019 | -China is tough on drugs, often holding suspects three weeks sans trial, executing thousands, and conducting random tests. But it has not staunched increases in drug users (now estimated ~10m). | Asia | China |
| 5/18/2019 | -France: The Gilets Jaunes have dropped substantially in strength and support due to internal quarrels and Macron’s listening tour, but there is still resounding anger touching immigration issues which will likely fall behind Marine Le Pen next election. | Europe | France |
| 5/18/2019 | -From 2010-17 in the US, right-wing terror attacks (92) outnumbered jihadist (38). They hope to polarize society and provoke Islamist backlash. While they lack state sponsors, online communities make them hard to stop—the Christchurch attack was reposted on Facebook 1.5m times. Cover from mainstream politicians are not helping (e.g. -Trump dismisses as a “law enforcement issue”). | Global | Terrorism |
| 5/18/2019 | -India: Modi tested an ASAT weapon to build support going into a close election. Unlike the Chinese 2007 launch, which created ~25% of total space debris, this was in low earth orbit so most of the debris burnt safely. | Asia | India |
| 5/18/2019 | -Korea: Several K-pop stars are being investigated for sharing pornographic videos of women filmed without their consent (some drugged). K-pop had once offered fans a sanitized version of sex (recording contracts often ban stars from having girlfriends to ensure fans can project their desires on them). | Asia | Korea |
| 5/18/2019 | -Netherlands: Thierry Baudet and his Euroskeptic, climate-change skeptic, anti-immigration Forum for Democracy Party is taking flight, perhaps displacing Geert Wilders in the fractured Dutch Parliament. While depriving the government of a majority, it ironically may force it left (into cooperation with the Greens or Labour). | Europe | Netherlands |
| 5/18/2019 | -Some predict crisis from declining numbers of insects, which enable plants to reproduce (pollination) and provide food for other animals. But even where we have reliable data (US and Europe), ecosystems are holding up. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/18/2019 | -Around 13% of Americans say they do not fully trust vaccines as safe, stoked by a smaller core of activists including minor celebrities like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | United States | |
| 5/13/2019 | -Pentagon is preparing for peer conflict with focus on hypersonics, directed energy, space, cyber, quantum science, and autonomy. Mix of firepower (e.g. B-21) and survivability (e.g. swarm). Also moving forces (carrier groups) toward Indo-Pacific and less predictably to bamboozle adversaries. | United States | Military |
| 5/13/2019 | -70% of the earth is water, but 97.5% is salty and 1.75% is frozen, leaving humans to rely primarily on just .3% of surface freshwater. Shortages will depend on (1) population; (2) agricultural needs—meat uses more to grow food; and (3) climate change—wet places will become wetter and dry places drier. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/13/2019 | -Boeing reportedly did not mention MCAS in instruction manuals prior to the Indonesian crash, and since 2001, the company has lobbied successfully to perform more of its own safety tests. Also unfortunate Trump left the FAA job open from Jan18 to Mar19. | Business & Economics | |
| 5/13/2019 | -Greece: Syriza PM Alexis Tsipras will lose his next election (no later than October) despite a positive record. In a remarkable volte-face he accepted EU bail-out terms, implemented austerity, ran a primary surplus of 3.5%, and returned growth near 2% last year. He also improved tax collection, though little has been done to boost productivity. | Europe | Greece |
| 5/13/2019 | -India responded to a Kashmir terrorist attack by bombing Pakistan and an air battle ensued. While unlikely to escalate further (India’s downed pilot was returned quickly), Modi’s made a career of playing with fire (association with Gujrat violence) and may try to be tough guy on Pakistan leading up to April election. | Asia | India |
| 5/13/2019 | -Japan agreed to accept low-skilled workers in certain industries, but the policy is hampered by landlords which will not rent to foreigners, companies which deny minimum wage, and other abuse. | Asia | Japan |
| 5/13/2019 | -Merkel’s SPD coalition partner SPD insists on tight arms export restrictions (most recently KSA), which puts -Germany at odds with European countries which want to sell platforms dependent on Germany parts (e.g. Typhoons). | Europe | Germany |
| 5/13/2019 | -Protests in Algeria and Sudan are similar to 2011 Arab Spring, but the wars and chaos have cooled the ardor of activities and autocrats have sharpened their tools of repression. | Middle East & Africa | Algeria |
| 5/13/2019 | -Sputnik’s largest international audience is in Turkey, where it is among the only uncensored news sources. Turkey unblocked it during the rapprochement following the 2016 downing of a Russian jet. | Europe | Turkey |
| 5/13/2019 | -Venezuela: Maduro blocked food and medical suppliers and celebrated by salsa dancing. The US will continue to isolate Maduro economically and diplomatically with even wider sanctions. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 5/4/2019 | -US: By defying countless norms (releasing taxes, divesting business interests, declaring political emergencies), Trump proves Congress should take steps to curtail the power of the executive (e.g. emergencies end after a month unless Congress re-approves). | United States | Politics |
| 5/4/2019 | -US: If the goal of the wall is to staunch the flow of drugs and immigrants, money would be better spent on scanners, dogs, analytics, and judges. The current system is optimized for tracking down renegade single men avoiding capture, not families applying for asylum. | United States | Immigration |
| 5/4/2019 | -China: To calm the trade war and solidify the economy, Xi should let banks and financial markets operate freely, privatize (or at least liberalize) many of its 150,000 state firms, and protect the rights of foreign firms (let them control subsidiaries, including IP). | Asia | China |
| 5/4/2019 | -Dealing with thousands of ISIS fighters returning home will require a mix of trials, monitoring, and rehabilitation. Police need resources, and prosecutors ways to introduce sensitive evidence in open court. | Global | Terrorism |
| 5/4/2019 | -France: Gilets jaunes movement was originally a social protest and fiscal revolt, but has been infiltrated by extreme left and right agitators propagating anti-Semitic, anti-black, and anti-elite. Over 2,000 people have been wounded since the protests began. | Europe | France |
| 5/4/2019 | -Millennial socialism: Over half of Americans aged 18-29 have a positive view of socialism. Universal healthcare is a noble goal, but higher taxes on the rich will not yield as much income as expected, central planning/massive public spending on the environment are less effective than a carbon tax, and strengthening unions to resist changing markets will ossify the economy. | Business & Economics | |
| 5/4/2019 | -Pakistan is facing accusations of fostering terrorists from three sides following an attack killing 27 Iranian IRGC, bombing killing 44 Indian soldiers, and Afghanistan complaint to UN Taliban meeting. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 5/4/2019 | -UK: 8 Labour and 3 Tories left their parties, demonstrating stance on Brexit now divides voters more than the traditional left-right divide. | Europe | UK |
| 5/4/2019 | -While English is now the language of business, law, science, medicine, entertainment, and diplomacy, research shows children learn more when taught in their mother tongue. | Other | |
| 5/4/2019 | -Opioids kill 70,000 Americans every year, more than car crashes, guns, or AIDS at its peak. Most first become addicted to pills, then go to heroin. OxyContin, invented 1996, was marketed aggressively as a wonder drug and addiction dangers were downplayed. Federal government is not doing enough distribution of naloxone (overdose reversal), tightening prescription guidelines (prevent doctor-shopping), hub-and-spoke network of treatment centers (most users are rural NH/WV/OH). Philadelphia wants to try safe-injection sites, but the legal issues are immense. | United States | |
| 4/27/2019 | -Hoping immigration policy can rescue sinking polling ahead of May’s election, the Australian Government attacked a common sense bill allowing sick boat people to be evacuated from holding (12 have already died in custody). | Asia | Australia |
| 4/27/2019 | -ISIS is nearly dead, but Sunni Muslims who once flocked to its banner still feel economically and politically repressed in Syria and Iraq. Isolated attacks will continue, and American withdrawal jeopardizes progress. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 4/27/2019 | -KSA has been buying Chinese missiles (DF-3/DF-21) since the 1980s, though satellite imagery suggests construction of a missile engine factory outside of Riyadh. It raises concerns about KSA’s stated nuclear ambitions. Iran has increased its pace of testing indigenous missiles. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 4/27/2019 | -Libya: Warlord Khalida Haftar is gaining ground against the UN-backed government in Tripoli. His forces took the Sharara oilfield, potentially giving him greater leverage over the West. | Middle East & Africa | Libya |
| 4/27/2019 | -Nearly one-third of Latin American women have a baby before age 20, largely due to lack of sex education and a “libertine environment.” | Americas | |
| 4/27/2019 | -Under German pressure, EU is likely to approve Nord Stream 2, a Russian gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea which (1) directly harms Poland and Ukraine; (2) increases Europe’s dependence on Russian energy; and (3) divides Western allies. | Europe | |
| 4/27/2019 | -Despite its beauty and wealth, SF has among the highest rates of property crime. While it is unlikely to adopt a zero-tolerance approach like 1990s NYC, the crime is testing SF’s progressive values. | United States | |
| 4/20/2019 | -Exasperated with ten years of Russian cheating and China's unshackled arsenal, INF (banned 310-3400 mi) is dead. The US is now developing the Precision Strike Missile/enhanced Tomahawk, but should not seek to match Russia missile-for-missile and not let New START expire in 2021. | United States | Military |
| 4/20/2019 | -Since 2001, the US has spent over $130B on missile defense. Using four GMD interceptors offers 97% chance of ICBM shoot-down, though defending against a volley of just 12 would cost over $3B. New ideas include boost phase and space sensing/intercept. | United States | Military |
| 4/20/2019 | -El Chapo reaped $14B, moving between mistresses and hideouts every 20 days, with panthers and crocodiles in his private zoo. He used a GPS watch for his tunnel escape. | Americas | Mexico |
| 4/20/2019 | -Exxon Mobil's rhetoric on climate change is evolving but spending on green technologies remains minimal. Oil still has a stranglehold on transport for the medium-term. Green New Deal raises awareness but carbon tax is more pragmatic policy. | Business & Economics | |
| 4/20/2019 | -France: Macron is attempting a comeback through untiring local town halls, listening to concerns and arguing with force of rational, detailed policy. The most likely outcome, however, is the familiar contradiction of more public services and lower taxes. | Europe | France |
| 4/20/2019 | -Huawei is simultaneously a: (1) massive technology company; (2) law-breaker on IP/Iran sanctions for profit; and (3) vehicle for Chinese espionage or sabotage. US and Chinese leaders should create mechanisms and rules to increase transparency rather than outright ban the company. | Asia | China |
| 4/20/2019 | -Iran: 40 years after the Revolution, Iranians are poorer than they should be, lack justice, and theocracy has made them less pious. There is still mutual enmity over Mosaddegh and hostage crisis. US should contain Iran until their people grow weary of their rulers, and negotiate partial deals that limit the risk of conflict. Many overstate Iran's regional influence, but it has been adept at filling voids; Arab states need to offer better alternatives. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 4/20/2019 | -Italy's populist coalition of 5SM and nationalist Northern League may not survive through summer. The economy is stagnant and Dep PM Salvini may be tried for kidnapping by blocking entry of 177 migrants who were left on a rescue boat for five days. | Europe | Italy |
| 4/20/2019 | -Nigeria: President Buhari unlawfully suspended the chief justice, likely to sway an upcoming ruling and sure up his fate in case the upcoming election is disputed. | Middle East & Africa | Nigeria |
| 4/20/2019 | -South Korean Supreme Court ruled it is not a crime to refuse military service for religion or conscience. All men must serve two years before age 29. | Asia | Korea |
| 4/20/2019 | -Venezuela: Guaido's strategy to flip the military relies on the carrot of amnesty, the stick of US sanctions, and trick of pretending he is running the country. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 4/20/2019 | -It is legitimate to tax the rich, but current Democratic proposals are crude (blanket), distorting (disincentivize investment), and hard to enforce (would have to value art collections). Better ideas are the inequality-busting inheritance tax and targeted property taxes. | United States | |
| 4/13/2019 | -Afghanistan: The collection of incumbents (Ghani, Abdullah) and warlords running for president is unlikely to inspire young and disillusioned voters. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 4/13/2019 | -Brazil: Bolsonaro is attacking crime by making it easier to get guns, instead of using social programs and data-based policing. | Americas | Brazil |
| 4/13/2019 | -Egypt: Sisi plans to move the capital to a still-nameless city about 50km east of Cairo. It will replace Cairo's slums and alleys with boulevards and high rises, but needs jobs to attract people. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 4/13/2019 | -In the long run, globalization is inevitable, but declining cross-border investment trade, bank loans, and supply chains suggest we're entering a slow patch. Reasons include Trump's tariffs, geopolitical rivalry, rules on commerce, privacy, data, and espionage. | Global | |
| 4/13/2019 | -Indonesia: Jokowi, criticized as insufficiently pious leading up to April's election, pardoned the leader of JI who orchestrated the 2002 Bali bombings. It has proved unpopular. | Asia | Indonesia |
| 4/13/2019 | -Israel: Netanyahu is being investigated for two instances of illicit deals with newspaper publishers for more favorable coverage and one instance of accepting $200,000 in gifts. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 4/13/2019 | -Jack Bogle, father of Vanguard, invented the index fund. Contrary to popular belief, index funds make markets less volatile and more efficient by adjusting to bubbles and displacing inept stocktraders. | Business & Economics | |
| 4/13/2019 | -Small drones need basic rules for safety but security should focus on 3D radars for early detection and signal-jamming (kinetic "shoot downs" risks to crowds). | Science & Technology | |
| 4/13/2019 | -South Korea: Former Chief Justice of Supreme Court was indicted in connection with President Park's corruption scandals. | Asia | Korea |
| 4/13/2019 | -Taiwan: "Porcupine" defense strategy focuses on smaller, cheaper, more mobile weapons like sea mines, unmanned platforms, and mobile ship missiles. Nonetheless, increasingly routine US defense deals serve a diplomatic purpose to secure commitment. | Asia | Taiwan |
| 4/13/2019 | -US: Only 54% of American 3/4yos are in pre-school, behind the 80% OECD average. Congress' greatest accomplishment may be allocating over $5.2B for pre-K in 2018. | United States | Education |
| 3/23/2019 | -Australia: Rural towns like Wagga Wagga are accepting scores of asylum seekers to replace young Australians flocking to cities. | Asia | Australia |
| 3/23/2019 | -Brazil: Brazil esteems itself on diplomatic abilities, having peacefully negotiated its borders with ten countries 1902-1912. President Bolsonaro espouses free & open markets but appointed a junior diplomat to run Itamaraty who denounces globalism and adores Trump. | Americas | Brazil |
| 3/23/2019 | -Japan: Aging population (28% over 65) has driven up healthcare costs. Trying to address by increasing home care. | Asia | Japan |
| 3/23/2019 | -Pakistan: Imran Khan former cricketer, playboy who became devout Muslim, honest. Has protected power by buying into Islam, Military, and associated paranoia. But economy is falling behind regional peers and China's 1B1R is worsening a balance of payments crisis. | Asia | China |
| 3/23/2019 | -Venezuela: By any metric (currency, GDP, oil production), Maduro has destroyed the economy. He has tightened his grip on power but continues to suffer high profile defections and the greatest threat may be from within the chavismo. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 3/23/2019 | -US: Republican women over 65 are among the strongest anti-MeToo groups. Possible explanations are that they have grown sons and/or view special treatment as patronizing. | United States | |
| 3/2/2019 | -Africa: Coups are getting rarer (good), but the average age of presidents has risen from 50 to over 65. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 3/2/2019 | -Because Germany and Sweden have been left to cope with the refugee crisis alone, their willingness is exhausted. Unless Europe soon restores order, political pressure will force Merkel to clamp down unilaterally, starting a wave of border closures. More worrying, the migrant crisis is feeding xenophobia and political populism. Need to (1) curb the “push” factors through aid and ceasefire in Syria; (2) Review asylum claims while refugees are still in centers in the Middle East or Greek/Italian hotspots; (3) Insist asylum-seekers stay put until their applications are processed. | Europe | |
| 3/2/2019 | -Belarus: Lukashenko has ruled since 1994, largely cherishing its Soviet legacy. But there is growing distance between him and Putin, denouncing Crimea annexation, resisting a Russian base, and meeting U.S. generals. | Europe | Belarus |
| 3/2/2019 | -France: Despite yellow vests, France's tax system is highly re-distributive (reduces the Gini coefficient 2 point whereas US only 1). | Europe | France |
| 3/2/2019 | -Poland: Offered $2B for the US to deploy an armored division (15,000 troops) permanently at "Fort Trump." Vulnerable to Russian artillery, could spur Russian buildup in Kalinigrad. Mattis and EU had opposed. | Europe | Poland |
| 3/2/2019 | -Taiwan: China seeks to undermine current DPP government for seeking independence. President Tang has strengthened referendums and increased transparency (ministers publish transcripts of meetings). | Asia | China |
| 3/2/2019 | -The U.S. Italy, France, and Britain should take action against the Islamic State in north-central Libya, where they are spreading out from Sirte. They should train soldiers defending oil facilities, declare no-drive zones, and bomb IS units which get too close. This would require few troops and could garner UN or NATO support. | Middle East & Africa | Libya |
| 3/2/2019 | -World Bank President departing for private sector two years into his second five year term. Dina Powell is Trump's rumored replacement. Generally American leads WB, European leads IMF. | Global | |
| 2/23/2019 | -Cameron’s renegotiation of EU membership was more rhetorical (pledges to cut bureaucracy, respect other currencies, and opt out of “ever closer union”). The trials of renegotiating Britain’s membership would pale in comparison with those of securing a favorable exit. | Europe | UK |
| 2/23/2019 | -Despite her campaign rhetoric, Ms. Ing-Wen must accept independence from China is not reasonable and focus on improving the economy. | Asia | China |
| 2/23/2019 | -Erdogan should give up trying to crush the Kurds and reopen peace negotiations with an offer of greater autonomy (and the PKK needs to end its attacks). | Europe | Turkey |
| 2/23/2019 | -Given the Zika virus, the WHO should push for a renewed anti-mosquito campaign in Latin America which includes more spraying and research. | Americas | |
| 2/23/2019 | -Iran has complied with its part of the deal and nuclear-related sanctions will be removed next week. This is an accomplishment, but Iran will require continued policing. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 2/23/2019 | -The price of oil has fallen 75% in the last 18 months (now under $27/b). Reason: KSA is pumping vigorously to push out other producers, but shale producers are resilient (still profitable as low as $15/b) and Iran rejoined market. Low oil prices often considered good--creating disposable income for consumers and crowds out dirty coal, but: | Business & Economics | |
| 2/23/2019 | -Two of five births in OECD countries (and 2 of 5 in Latin America) are outside of marriage. | Americas | |
| 2/23/2019 | -With oil prices destined to stay low,Saudi Arabia desperately needs to diversify its economy by getting the state out of all but the essential industries (rumors of Aramco IPO). It should also cut excessive welfare and add taxes. Obstacles are internal politics and Iranian distraction. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 2/23/2019 | -Populist candidates gain traction in the U.S. because voters are angry, primaries encourage radical candidates and party bureaucracies back primary winners. | United States | |
| 2/23/2019 | -President Obama has proposed a wage insurance, whereby a blameless loss in wage to under $50,000 results in a two-year subsidy of $10,000. It would be funded by a tax which would cost each worker $25/year. It does not discourage work and could be an effective response to the uncertainty of a globalized labor force. | United States | |
| 2/9/2019 | -Because of mismanagement and overspending in Rousseff’s first term, the Brazilian finance minister quit amidst a dire economy (debt at 70% of GDP, inflation 10.5%). The fragmented political system must target pensions (12% of GDP). | Americas | Brazil |
| 2/2/2019 | -Maduro fought dirty in Venezuelan parliamentary elections and still lost resoundingly, but he will now seek to dominate the National Assembly. With the next election due in 2018, the opposition should push Maduro out of office through a recall referendum. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 1/26/2019 | -Just as the US housing crisis spread in 2007, the debt crisis is now spilling into developing countries. China and South Korea will weather the storm, but Brazil and Malaysia are at risk. | United States | Housing |
| 1/26/2019 | -In Burma, Aung San Su Kyi’s party won the majority of seats (despite a 25% guarantee for generals), but the generals still control the army, police, and much of civil service. | Asia | Myanmar |
| 1/26/2019 | -Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou’s meeting with President Xi is a political stunt overshadowed by his impending demise in upcoming elections. The incoming DPP party is more hardline against China. | Asia | China |
| 1/26/2019 | -While it risks poisoning the 2016 election, the Supreme Court should overturn a Texas law which piles regulations on abortion clinics. | United States | Abortion |
| 1/26/2019 | -With the longest term, Merkel is the “indispensable European.” She has defended Germany’s interests without losing sight of Europe’s, risked German money to save the euro, and has avoided pandering to anti-EU and anti-immigrant populists. She treats the EU as a pillar of peace and prosperity rather than a punching bag. | Europe | Germany |
| 1/19/2019 | -China replaced its one-child policy with a two-child policy (it had been easing the rules for a while). But no regulation is needed, the birthrate was already falling in 1970s by education campaigns alone. | Asia | China |
| 1/19/2019 | -Cloud computing has tremendous advantages for ease of access, security, and efficiency. But cloud provider companies are exploiting it by making it easy to upload data and hard to transfer it to another service. | Science & Technology | |
| 1/19/2019 | -Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is one of LAC’s most popular presidents, but has destroyed Argentina’s economy. Both leading candidates to replace her would be a great improvement. | Americas | Argentina |
| 1/19/2019 | -Europe’s migration crisis and the interminable euro mess have increased Euroscepticism in the UK approaching 2017. But: (1) accessing the European single market requires observing EU rules. (2) EU nations will not reward Britain for establishing a precedent of leaving. (3) Leaving would likely grant the Scots another independence vote. | Europe | |
| 1/19/2019 | -Ireland announced plans to establish “shooting galleries” where heroin addicts can take their drugs using clean equipment under doctors’ supervision. | Europe | Ireland |
| 1/19/2019 | -Myanmar’s November general election will be the first in 25 years not boycotted by the opposition National League for Democracy under San Suu Kyi. She won ten years ago, but the generals arrested her—unlikely to do so again. | Asia | Myanmar |
| 1/19/2019 | -The British House of Lords is an outdated and undemocratic institution. Members almost never retire—even after criminal charges. With the Conservatives running train in government, another legitimate check on government would be welcome. | Europe | UK |
| 1/19/2019 | -The FARC deal is a best-alternative solution to a deep conflict. Colombia has long been a contradiction, as the region’s oldest democracy despite heavy violence and steady economic growth despite poor policies. | Americas | Colombia |
| 1/19/2019 | -Turkey should not re-elect Erdogan, who continues to focus more on the Kurds than ISIS or Assad. | Europe | Turkey |
| 1/19/2019 | -Vatican financial disclosures reveal sick children funding going to cardinals’ penthouse apartments and private helicopters. The Vatican also earns $60M/year selling petrol and cigarettes. | Europe | Italy |
| 1/19/2019 | -We should go beyond simply controlling diseases and seek to eradicate them completely. Some diseases cannot be eradicated because the organisms that cause them hang around in the environment, but measles and mumps are plausible targets. Better communications, technology, and political attitudes present an opportunity. | Global | |
| 1/19/2019 | -Western democracies must deal cordially and profitably with China, while encouraging it to develop in a way that neither oppresses its own people nor destabilizes the world. The UK’s royal welcome to President Xi shows weakness (speaking to Parliament is historically reserved for leaders of democracies). | Asia | China |
| 1/19/2019 | -China and Russia are testing the fringes of U.S. superpower status. Obama’s desire for other countries to share responsibility for the system of international law and human rights will only work if the U.S. sets the agenda and takes the initiative (as with Iran’s nuclear program). | United States | |
| 1/12/2019 | -Although Ukraine’s violence has simmered, the people are still battling a corrupt government (the origin of the Maidan protests). Ukraine needs more direct external help in resources and expertise (could try a version of CICIG in Guatemala). | Europe | Ukraine |
| 1/12/2019 | -Australia has its fourth PM in four years, but Malcolm Turnbull replaces Abbott's negative outlook with optimistic rhetoric. With strong pro-market credentials, he may control for the slowdown in China. | Asia | Australia |
| 1/12/2019 | -For the past two decades, anyone in the 16 Schengen area countries could travel without customs or passport controls, but external borders, migration policies and policing remain in the hands of national governments. Only an EU-wide agreement on asylum can save passport-free travel in Europe. | Europe | |
| 1/12/2019 | -Mexico has turned considerable advantages (strong US, sophisticated industrial base) into patches of modernity but has failed to tackle national poverty (near 50%). It should focus on: developing urban slums, expanding infrastructure, shedding light on the informal economy, and building government trust. | Americas | Mexico |
| 1/12/2019 | -Obama’s UNGA remarks risk US ME disengagement, causing a regional free-for-all. Obama should leave troops in Afghanistan and stand by his position that Assad must go. It should also include protected havens, impose no-fly zones, and promote a moderate Sunni force. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 1/12/2019 | -Russia is rushing into Syria to save Assad but his strikes have driven more refugees than ISIS. The West should continue looking for moderate rebel groups. The sooner this conflict ends the better, as the fleeing doctors and pharmacists will be needed to rebuild it. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 1/12/2019 | -Sisi has taken a familiar path of generals who take power temporarily, find no alternative, and assume civilian control over parliament. The Muslim Brotherhood cannot participate in parliamentary elections, although most still prefer the order of Sisi to the chaos of Morsi. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 1/12/2019 | -Volkswagen admitted it installed software on 11M of its diesel cars allowing them to pass America’s stringent Nox-emissions tests. Once the cars were out of the laboratory, the software deactivated their emissions controls, and they spewed fumes at 40x the permitted level. This scandal could spur the end of diesel and a push toward electric cars. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/12/2019 | -Zimbabwe is in trouble, and the West must decide whether to bail it out or wait for the demise of the 91yo Robert Mugabe. Either way, they should lay down firm conditions (economic and democratic reforms) for aid. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 6/21/2018 | Empirical analyses by urban economists have failed to detect a rise in displacement within gentrifying neighborhoods. The poorest Americans move frequently anyway, and longtime residents reap the rewards of reduced crime and better amenities (those lucky enough to own get richer; renters often benefit from rent control). Gentrification helps reverse lack of investment in historically non-white neighborhoods, white flight from city centers, and economic segregation. | United States | Housing |
| 2/6/2016 | -Once having called himself a Democrat, Trump has flip-flopped on most issues from abortion to gun control. He is especially vague on solutions for replacing Obamacare, building a wall, and defeating ISIS. He is a genius for self-promotion and a billionaire, but history indicates voters will go for a mainstream candidate. | United States | Politics |
| 2/6/2016 | -Average growth at private Chinese companies has been double that of state-owned enterprises. | Asia | China |
| 2/6/2016 | -The search for high-yield farming has limited crop diversity, making crops vulnerable to disease or the effects of climate change. | Science & Technology | |
| 1/30/2016 | -Expected to contract by 2.3% this year, Brazil’s economy is in crisis. Fast-rising joblessness, together with falling real private-sector pay and weak consumption, are squeezing tax receipts. Meanwhile rising inflation, allied to a free-falling currency, means investors demand higher returns on government debt. | Americas | Brazil |
| 1/30/2016 | -Rich-world markets have recovered from China's “Black Monday” stock crash, but it raises serious questions about China's economic transition. | Asia | China |
| 1/23/2016 | -A Chinese military parade will recognize the tremendous sacrifices of WWII, but will also suggest China deserves greater recognition today and Japan is still a sleeping threat which refuses to repent for its sins. Governments that stoke up nationalist animosity cannot always control it. | Asia | China |
| 1/23/2016 | -A new law in China bans NGO’s from foreign funding. This is a license for the Chinese government to intimidate anyone it does not control. | Asia | China |
| 1/23/2016 | -A new technology uses RNA to replace unwanted genes in a section of DNA. This can help fight genetic diseases and cancer, but there are practical and philosophical risks (effect on subsequent generations is unclear; some opposed to letting humans play god). | Science & Technology | |
| 1/23/2016 | -The Iran deal is not bilateral, and the rest of the world has largely welcomed it, so sanctions will erode either way. There is no better deal to be had, but Obama should address lingering concerns such as countering Iran's regional influence. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 1/23/2016 | -U.S. higher education is too expensive and needs reforms that: bear down on costs, encourage students to make more informed choices about their future and match re-payments to borrowers’ ability to pay. | United States | Education |
| 1/16/2016 | -An inversion is a when an American company merges with a foreign company and changes its domicile abroad for tax benefits. Obama deemed this unpatriotic, but to stem the flow, the US should get rid of tax loopholes, drop the corporate income tax rate, and move to a territorial system. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/16/2016 | -North Korea is dropping back a half hour to establish its own time zone. Asian time zones are messy, as all of China is lockstep with Beijing—even though neighboring Pakistan is three hours behind. France attempted a ten-hour clock in 1789 and USSR tried five-day weeks in the 1930s. | Asia | Korea |
| 1/16/2016 | -Patents are supposed to encourage innovation by rewarding inventiveness, but too often patent-holders are able to block innovation, or at least stand in the way until they can grab a share of the spoils. Reform should understand limitations and seek simplicity, but only reward big ideas and expire quickly. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/9/2016 | -Poland managed to avoid recession after the financial crisis and become a major European player, but the people are fed up and elected new president Andrzej Duda. The biggest risk is that he may fall in with the party’s historical leader and split with Germany, which would work in Russia’s favor. | Europe | Poland |
| 1/9/2016 | -The state of international public education is sad, with union-emboldened teachers often absent 25%. Although governments and NGOs often oppose for-profit education, the rise of private schools should be welcomed for bringing in investment, providing a better value service, and allowing innovation. | Global | Education |
| 1/2/2016 | -ISIS survives because it is nobody’s priority. America seeks to limit its commitment. The Gulf is distracted by Iran. Iran is focused on propping up Assad. Assad is mostly concerned with the other rebels. Turkey is concerned with Assad and the Kurds. Iraq and the Kurds are not able to beat it by themselves. | Global | Terrorism |
| 1/2/2016 | -Obama renewed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) which lets Africans sell many goods tariff-free to America. He also created Power Africa, a PPP to build much-needed electricity plants. Still, his record pales in comparison to Bush (PEPFAR and MCC). He should promote better governance by sharing more intelligence about corrupt officials and companies. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 1/2/2016 | -The enormous, disruptive creativity of Silicon Valley is unprecedented. Still, the geeks are beginning to live in a bubble. Making more money, staying private longer and relying on a small group of financiers should avoid another dot-com bust. But when they push back against taxes and regulations, they draw ire from international governments. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/17/2015 | -Countless studies indicate a modest minimum wage below 50% of medium income does not sap demand for labor. But a global movement for minimum wages into the 60%s is dangerous, especially as technological advances allow firms to replace people with machines. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/17/2015 | -The Iran deal is not perfect, but the alternatives are to wait for a better deal (not feasible) or go to war (a poor form of arms control). It legitimizes Iran as a threshold nuclear state, but adds transparency and restrictions. The greatest danger is that it will extend its primarily malign influence in the region (Hezbollah, Houthis). | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 12/3/2015 | -Chinese stocks have fallen by a third in under a month. Despite the 2013 claim for the stock market to play a “decisive” role, less than 15% of Chinese own stock. The government has made exacerbated the problem by trying to prop up the market. | Asia | China |
| 11/26/2015 | -The lesson of Srebanica is that western half-measures convinced Mladic he could act as he pleased. Governments should heed the early signs of mass slaughter and act quickly to prevent it. | Global | |
| 11/26/2015 | -Western countries learned how to stop smoking: taxation, bans on public places, and education. But rates are still rising in low-income places like Indonesia and Nigeria (tobacco lobby and political inertia). | Middle East & Africa | Nigeria |
| 11/19/2015 | -Heathrow is the second busiest airport in the world (after Dubai), yet no new runway has been built since WWII. With the momentum of an independent study, Cameron should make the unpopular decision to expand it. | Europe | UK |
| 11/19/2015 | -The shale (fracking) industry is booming—over $500B of capital. But big borrowing and indiscriminate drilling is being replaced by spendthrift firms which are laying off workers to earn more profit. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/12/2015 | -China is increasingly threatened by Uighur terrorist attacks. Instead of banning Islam, they should try to improve education and economic opportunities. They sent 200,000 officials to live with the Uighurs last year. | Asia | China |
| 11/12/2015 | -Despite widespread support, only a handful of European countries (and Oregon) allow doctor-assisted suicide. Should be allowed in any adult case where doctor and patient agree. | Global | |
| 11/12/2015 | -India has more malnourished people than any other country, especially children. Modi has blocked publication of the most damning statistics and cut spending on public health. | Asia | India |
| 11/12/2015 | -Latin American economic growth has come to a standstill due to the slowing commodity boom in China. To recover, they must increase productivity and take regional integration seriously. | Asia | China |
| 11/12/2015 | -Several years ago, a series of questionable lawsuits broke up Russia’s biggest and best-run oil company, Yukos to build a new state-controlled company run by Putin’s ally. Yukos shareholders fought back in the Hague, which awarded a $50 billion judgment against the Russian state. | Europe | Russia |
| 11/12/2015 | -With less than 5% of the world’s population, the US holds 25% of its prisoners—and they are getting old. Only 12% of the decline in crime can be attributed to incarceration. Should end war on drugs and mandatory minimums. | United States | Policing |
| 11/5/2015 | -Hillary Clinton has fully flipped on the TPP. While she lauded it as secretary of state, she went silent before the vote and has recently come out against it. | United States | Politics |
| 11/5/2015 | -While the US has been fighting low-tech enemies in the Middle East, China, Russia, and Iran have been rapidly improving their military capabilities and narrowing the gap. Pentagon has focused on “third offset strategy” like unmanned planes and submarines. To save money, the Pentagon should close unneeded bases and fix its health programs (real cost of each active-duty service member has jumped 76% since 2000). | United States | Military |
| 11/5/2015 | -Reasons for optimism following Nigeria’s election of Buhari: (1) Buhari is honest and determined to make changes (2) A successful and smooth election should raise the bar in the future (3) Nigeria’s middle class is growing rapidly. | Middle East & Africa | Nigeria |
| 11/5/2015 | -Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir (on trial at the ICC) should have been arrested during his visit to South Africa. Despite a court order to arrest him, they welcomed him on a red carpet and let him get away. | Middle East & Africa | Sudan |
| 11/5/2015 | -With rich-world growth exceeding 2% for the first time since 2010, the Great Recession may be beat. But with risks from Greek debt to Chinese markets, another one is likely on the way and central banks may not have the ammunition to fight it. They should raise interest rates to regain room to cut them again when trouble comes. | Business & Economics | |
| 10/29/2015 | -American extraterritorial jurisdiction is sometimes overbearing, but its FIFA prosecutions deserve the gratitude of fans everywhere. Systemic corruption at FIFA came to a head with the inexplicable choice of Qatar for 2022. An underlying problem is FIFA controls television/marketing rights ($4 billion at last year’s World Cup) used to win the loyalty of football federations in poor countries. | Other | Sports |
| 10/29/2015 | -Men cluster at both the top and the bottom. They (esp. uneducated) are more likely to be jailed, flunk school, or commit suicides. We should arrest fewer men and help boys in school. | Global | |
| 10/29/2015 | -The US-sustained Middle East order has collapsed, but America still has interests in the region (protecting human rights, oil, proliferation). Obama needs a strategy of constructive containment where he emphasizes State Department but is willing to send more troops. VAGUE. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 10/22/2015 | -Coming out of the Cold War, Poland and Ukraine were equals—now Poland is three times richer. The West needs to do more to help the Ukrainian economy by restructuring their debts. Ukraine can do more to clean up their legal system and fight corruption. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 10/22/2015 | -Modi came to power one year ago with a strong mandate promising transformation, but progress has been frustratingly slow. Despite slight economic improvements, reform has been absent as Modi falsely assumes time is on his side and he can make changes by himself without devolving power to states. | Asia | India |
| 10/15/2015 | -For 50 years, Cuba blamed the U.S. embargo for the island’s woes; now, they resist American capitalism for fear of being overrun. Small private businesses are cropping up, hinting at the emergence of a middle class, but the government needs to increase the pace of reforms. | Americas | Cuba |
| 10/15/2015 | -Saudi Arabia has taken new steps to emerge as a regional leader (refusing to lessen oil production, backing coup against Morsi, bombing Yemen). Power is shifting to the younger generation just as the region faces a decline of Arab states (Iraq, Egypt), disengagement from US, and emergence of Iran. But KSA needs to diversify their economy to preserve their influence. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 10/15/2015 | -The subsidy governments give to debts is immensely costly. Half the world’s governments allow citizens to deduct the interest payments on mortgages from their taxable income; almost all countries allow firms to write off payments on their borrowing against taxable earnings. This encourages excessive borrowing. The best approach is to gradually phase out tax breaks while lowering the corporate tax rate. | Global | |
| 10/8/2015 | -Thanks to rising processing power and the growing abundance of digitally available data, Artificial Intelligence is enjoying a boom in capabilities. The most powerful force is the combination of the human mind and computers. | Science & Technology | |
| 10/8/2015 | -The Indonesian economy is slumping, and Joko needs to ditch the meddling, nationalistic economic policies which are scaring off foreign investment. | Asia | Indonesia |
| 10/1/2015 | -As the War on Drugs slows in the West, it is ramping up in the East. China, Indonesia, Iran, and Russia are all executing drug dealers. But drug addictions need treatment, not prison, and supply should be managed rather than eliminated. | Global | Drugs |
| 10/1/2015 | -Baltimore’s slums are islands of dystopia in a sea of middle-class comfort. The protests will not address the death of Freddie Gray, but residents have good reason to be upset with adult unemployment over 50% and a murder rate greater than Honduras. | United States | Policing |
| 9/24/2015 | -China has built a military island in the South China Sea. ASEAN is trying to push a code of conduct, but is too weak to go it alone. | Asia | China |
| 9/24/2015 | -Fast-track permission from Congress and Abe’s visit have breathed life into the TPP Agreement. But it is still threatened by Congress and the risk Japan will refuse to cut farming tariffs. | Asia | Japan |
| 9/17/2015 | -Amid a slowing economy, China is putting itself through a quiet financial revolution, shifting away from investment towards consumption. A boom in services generated 13M urban jobs last year. It is also loosening control over interest rates, transfer fiscal decisions to provinces, and cut red tape. | Asia | China |
| 9/17/2015 | -By treating the dispute over the massacre of Armenians in 1915 as a matter of national interest, Turkey is falling into a nationalistic trap. Erdogan’s mix of nationalist, Islamist, and autocratic tone endangers relations with the West and in the region. | Europe | Turkey |
| 9/17/2015 | -With a mix of brand name and personal connections, family dynasties are hardly rare in politics (Japan, ROK, -stans, India, Kenya, Europe) or business (>90% are family-managed or –controlled). But competition based on merit is important and overly rich and influential families are dangerous. | Global | |
| 9/10/2015 | -Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak paints his country as a model of moderate Islam, but he faces a scandal over dubious connections and misused funds at a national investment fund now $12 billion in debt. Human rights and rule of law are even greater concerns. | Asia | Malaysia |
| 9/10/2015 | -There’s no shortage of land, but housing prices are going through the roof in places like London, Mumbai and New York. This is largely the fault of overprotective and burdensome regulatory limits on construction. Policymakers should focus on top-down decisions which are less strict and higher taxes on land. | Global | Housing |
| 9/3/2015 | -In a backlash to Tony Blair’s misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq, the British Conservative government has largely withdrawn from the world stage. But France and Germany show you can have an active foreign policy while dealing with an economic crisis. | Europe | |
| 9/3/2015 | -Other countries are moving towards the American-style university system which is market-based and uses a mix of public and private funding. But that will increase costs of education as whole (right now OECD is 1.3% of GDP and USA is 2.7%). While America produces far more research, students don’t tend to score much better on tests. | Global | Education |
| 8/27/2015 | -Cruz has an inspiring story and is a brilliant campaigner. He won’t win the election but could drag the other Republican candidates to the right. | United States | Politics |
| 8/27/2015 | -ISIS is uniquely brutal in its treatment of foes and competent in its propaganda. But its cracks are beginning to show, as it loses ground (Kobani and Tikrit), money (bombed oil facilities), and the consent of the people it rules (begun killing its own followers). | Global | Terrorism |
| 8/22/2015 | -Non-Hispanic Whites are on pace to become a minority by 2044; but mostly due to births, not immigration. To prosper, America must help Latinos (a growing swing vote) realize their potential by focusing on school reform and affordable health care. | United States | Race |
| 8/22/2015 | -If the US says it welcomes China’s peaceful rise, it should not obstruct the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). It fears the institution will become an opaque vehicle for Chinese influence and duplicate the Asian Development Bank (ADB). But investment is badly needed and the US can influence by joining and reforming from the inside. | Asia | China |
| 8/22/2015 | -Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras has fanned flames in the Greek-German rivalry by cozying up to Putin and demanding war reparations from Germany. | Europe | Greece |
| 8/15/2015 | -Big and open data allows insurers to provide more accurate rates, but could lead to privacy concerns or fewer people being covered. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/15/2015 | -Karzai went out of his way to taunt Pakistan by friending India. Ghani is being more proactive in working with Pakistan to tighten the border and get the Taliban to negotiate. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 8/15/2015 | -With coverage increasing by 4% (to 88%), evidence is mounting that Obamacare is working. While America still spends far too much (17% of GDP) on healthcare, it may be more manageable. | United States | Healthcare |
| 8/8/2015 | -Maduro lacks Chavez’s charisma/political skills and oil revenue, but he is outgunning Chavez in repressing opposition by jailing them—43 people died in protests last year. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 8/8/2015 | -Today, about half the world’s adult population owns a smartphone. By 2020, 80% will. There are serious concerns about privacy, but they help people unit against authoritarianism, help collection of data to better understand society, and have been shown to increase GDP. | Science & Technology | |
| 8/1/2015 | -As democratic leaders see the cost of hosting major sporting events, they are increasingly being hosted in nonsensical places (e.g. Sochi, Baku, Doha). They provide golden opportunities for autocrats to reward cronies with kickbacks and dodgy contracts. Need to increase transparency, cut costs, and consider other factors (e.g. human rights record of applicants). | Other | Sports |
| 8/1/2015 | -India’s economy contains untold promise—with 1.25B people, roughly half under 25. It grew faster than China last year and looks increasingly stable (inflation under 10%). But badly needed reforms on land deals, power, and complex labor laws remain. | Asia | India |
| 7/25/2015 | -Buoyed by cheap petrol, Americans are spending again in record numbers, but the world is relying too much on American consumers to power growth. Weak exports, a rising dollar, and a slowdown in energy investments could slow America’s growth down, so Europe and China need to focus on themselves. | Asia | China |
| 7/25/2015 | -The Kurds, at least 25M-strong, are one of the world’s most numerous peoples without a state (due to Turkish and Iranian opposition). A country should be able to gain independence if it can stand on its own feet, has democratic credentials, and respects its own minorities. The Kurds are exporting increasing oil and already hold regular elections. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 7/18/2015 | -In 2011-2, Merkel wavered but ultimately opposed a Grexit but odds have changed. This time, Grexit would look more like the Greeks’ fault, Europe’s economy is stronger, and 80% of Greece’s debt is in the hands of other governments/bodies. Southern European leaders won’t support Greece’s reckless blackmail for fear it would embolden radical left parties in their own countries. The best solution is to trade structural reforms in exchange for debt forgiveness. | Europe | |
| 7/18/2015 | -Inequality: As the demand for brainpower soars, wealthy parents are spending more and working more on their children’s education (government should fund early education). Smart, successful men tend to marry smart, successful women (increases inequality by 25%). | Global | |
| 7/18/2015 | -Public offerings promote transparency and allow ordinary people to invest in companies. But there are emerging problems, as tycoons in Silicon Valley give themselves special rights and institutional investors sell at the first sign of trouble. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/18/2015 | -The Al Sauds have kept power through deals with the West exchanging oil for security and deals with the Wahhabi clerics, who offer religious legitimacy in return for the state’s power to spread their intolerant version of Islam. Stability and friendship in a turbulent area is vital to the US, but it should push for more pluralism in politics and faith. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 7/11/2015 | -Boko Haram has carved out a caliphate the size of Belgium in the impoverished north-east corner of Nigeria. Like ISIS, it is exporting jihad across borders. Goodluck Jonathan is willfully ignoring the carnage, but likely to win February’s elections with strong support in the Christian south. | Middle East & Africa | Nigeria |
| 7/11/2015 | -Following the tragic attack in Peshawar last December, the Pakistani army has reasserted its war on terror, dropping the distinction between good and bad Taliban. This comes at the expense of civilian rule. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 7/11/2015 | -The falling price of oil and advancing energy technology present an opportunity for policymakers to revolutionize the industry. They should eliminate all subsidies (esp. on carbon products) and tax carbon. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/11/2015 | -Three factors make the threat of terrorism as strong as since 9/11: the failed state in Syria/rise of ISIS, commando-style assaults like Paris are easy to plan, the post-Snowden backlash towards privacy has limited the IC’s technological edge. | Global | Terrorism |
| 7/4/2015 | -Free parking makes congestion much worse: as much as a third of traffic is people driving around looking for a parking space. San Francisco is experimenting with dynamic rates based on the number of spots available. | Other | |
| 7/4/2015 | -Libya may follow Syria as the next failed state. The east is under the control of a more or less secular alliance based in Tobruk while the West is under a hotchpotch of groups in Tripoli and Misrata backed by hardline Islamist militias. Turkey, Qatar, and Sudan favor the West, while Egypt, the US, and UAE back the more widely-recognized eastern alliance. Not the time for military intervention, but need more active diplomacy. | Middle East & Africa | Libya |
| 6/27/2015 | -Hong Kong police cleared the pro-democracy protesters. It was clear from the outset the occupy movement would never achieve its stated goals, but they made a strong statement. | Asia | China |
| 6/27/2015 | -Obama has loosened, but not fully eliminated the embargo on Cuba, which will help improve relations with all of the Western hemisphere. | Americas | Cuba |
| 6/27/2015 | -Technology and smart phones have changed the labor market for services with apps like Uber and Handy, which allows customers to post their needs (ride or handyman job) and part-time specialists to take care of them. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/27/2015 | -Terrorism in Pakistan dropped by a third in 2014, but the horrific attack by the TTP on a school in Peshawar stands out. The Pakistani government’s neurotic fear of encirclement by India caused them to exploit and encircle various jihadist groups in Kashmir, but Sharif vowed to end this policy. Since the election of Ghani in Afghanistan, relations with Pakistan have improved dramatically, but India remains tense. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 6/22/2015 | -OPEC has not done a good job of keeping oil prices high, but the real culprits are in North Dakota and Texas. Cheaper oil should increase GDP growth and reduce already low inflation, but is unnerving markets in oil producing companies such as Russia, Nigeria, and Venezuela. The market is changing and should be less subject to political shocks or manipulation. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/22/2015 | -American law enforcement have become paramilitary and unusually lethal. One reason is that so many Americans are armed, but that’s unlikely to change. They should focus on transparency, accountability, and reversing the militarization (driven by surplus military gear). | United States | Policing |
| 6/22/2015 | -All states fail to live up to their own ethical standards, but the Senate torture report is the first step toward redemption. Even if torture did yield information, it should never have been an official policy. | United States | |
| 6/15/2015 | -Google has 68% market share on searches in the U.S., but over 90% in many European countries. The EU is right to worry about privacy, but shouldn’t become protectionist. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/6/2015 | -Iran wants sanctions lightened, preserving a minimal enrichment capacity, and to be treated as a normal signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, with the right to a civil nuclear program. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 6/6/2015 | -Russia’s biggest problem may just be its economy: falling oil prices (2/3 of exports) and western sanctions. The falling rouble has made farming more competitive and Russia has a stash of foreign-exchange reserves, but the crisis could come sooner than expected. | Europe | Russia |
| 5/30/2015 | -Madrid should let the Catalans have a vote for independence and focus on beating the separatists at the polls (as Britain did with Scotland). | Europe | Spain |
| 5/30/2015 | -The Pacific Rim has a promising future: even where values clash, shared interests tend to prevail (growth, trade, ideas, connectivity). Still, the Rim as a whole has become too prosperous and too complex to fall under the US or China. The current track is creating two parallel systems, when the two Pacific powers should focus on modifying existing institutions for a safer world order. | Asia | China |
| 5/23/2015 | -The Republicans won across the board in the midterm elections, but their campaign was more negative against Obama than a new vision forward. Thus, they don’t have a strong mandate to pursue conservative policies and voters will expect them to govern, not just obstruct. | United States | Politics |
| 5/23/2015 | -Almost half of American states have taken steps to legalize marijuana—the federal government should take pot out of legal limbo and focus on making well-regulated. | United States | Drugs |
| 5/16/2015 | -Iran still does a lot of bad things (e.g. financing terrorists/militias and backing Assad). But the revolutionary fervor has extinguished and Iran is becoming less of a dictatorship and more West-friendly. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 5/16/2015 | -The rapid spread of Christianity in China is forcing officials to rethink their policies on religion, which they have traditionally seen as a dangerous perverter of loyalty away from the state. | Asia | China |
| 5/9/2015 | -The biggest global economic threat currently emanates from Europe, which risks tipping into its third recession in six years. To stop the economy from getting worse, ECB should start buying sovereign bonds, Germany should allow France and Italy to slow fiscal cuts in return for structural reform. | Europe | |
| 5/9/2015 | -The oil price is falling. Saudi Arabia may cut production to stabilize it. But instability in Iraq, Libya, and Nigeria may cause the price to fluctuate unpredictably. Causes such as environmental cars and fracking in the US are unlikely to reverse. | Business & Economics | |
| 5/9/2015 | -There have been 20 Ebola outbreaks since 1976, but the largest previous took 300 lives (the current is 4,500). A quarantine of three countries is too massive an undertaking but the countries need more instant-diagnosis kits and safe burials. | Global | |
| 5/2/2015 | -Marina Silva (replacement for deceased Campos) dropped off the Brazilian presidential race. Aecio Neves should defeat Dilma Rousseff because his policies would help the poor and promote economic growth. | Americas | Brazil |
| 5/2/2015 | -With the fall of Kobani to ISIS, US air strikes are failing due to a lack of ground forces. Turkey recognizes this, but refuses to allow its tanks to cross the border for fear of fighting on the same side as the Kurds. The US has similar concerns about fighting with Assad in Syria. Need more special operations forces on the ground. | Europe | Turkey |
| 4/25/2015 | -Five of the ten bloodiest conflicts in world history have taken place or originated in China. China is determined not to let the “umbrella revolution” (used for protection against pepper spray) in Hong Kong turn violent. So far they have decried the protestors as extremists and answered some local demands. | Asia | China |
| 4/18/2015 | -By taking the fight to the Islamic State, Obama may help re-establish American leadership in the world. But for military success, he has to figure out Iraqi politics and coalition diplomacy. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 4/18/2015 | -The negative effects of the digital revolution will continue spreading for three reasons: more advanced machines can do more jobs, digital wealth creation generates few jobs, and these shifts are evident in emerging economies. | Business & Economics | |
| 4/18/2015 | -Upon finally signing the Afghan Bilateral Security Agreement, Obama set the number of American advisors at 9,800 instead of his advisors’ recommendation of 15,000. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 4/11/2015 | -Scotland and Wales have their own parliaments, but England still uses Westminster, allowing other countries to influence their own policies. | Europe | UK |
| 4/4/2015 | -Al-Sisi had a good first hundred days, launching a $4 billion project to double the capacity of the Suez Canal. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 4/4/2015 | -The Venezuelan economy may be the most mismanaged in the world—running a deficit during an oil boom. The government has tried to adapt by printing bolivars which has caused inflation and hurt the poor. Price controls have created a tremendous scarcity for basic goods and medicines. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 3/28/2015 | -There are countless actors in the Syrian conflict: Syrian government, Syrian opposition, Syrian Kurds, Turkey, US & EU, Israel, Saudi & Arab League, Iraqi government, Iraqi Kurds, Iraqi Shia militias, Iran, Al-Qaeda/Jabhat al-Nusra, Islamic State. US Congress may be scared to hold a vote on Syria with midterm elections approaching. But since the beheadings, public opinion has turned hawkish with 75% supporting strikes on Iraq and 66% on Syria. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 3/28/2015 | -Washington DC police have microphones in a quarter of the city to alert them of gunshots. While many are accidents, they’ve discovered that many go unreported. | United States | Policing |
| 3/21/2015 | -For the first time, citizens will vote for Hong Kong’s territorial leader, but all candidates must be approved by the Communist Party. It is a missed opportunity for Beijing as discontent is growing. | Asia | China |
| 3/21/2015 | -In its campaign against ISIS, the US is careful not to appear anti-Sunni by leaning towards the Kurds rather than the Shia Iraqi government. But Iraqi troops are a key part of the strategy. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 3/21/2015 | -Netanyahu ordered the biggest land grab in a generation just south of Jerusalem, though the Israeli mayor wanted even more. The more Netanyahu indulges the right, the more he alienates the outside world eliminates prospects for peace talks. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 3/21/2015 | -The Pakistani generals are circling around Nawaz Sharif once again, though they are worried a coup would cut off American aid. Despite Sharif’s parliamentary majority, the generals dislike his attempts to assert civilian control and improve relations with India. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 3/14/2015 | -Germany’s opposition to American tech companies (Uber, Google) is misguided. They should seek a more friendly start-up culture. | Europe | Germany |
| 3/14/2015 | -Putin is devoted to reversing the post-Cold War trend of Western humiliation of Russia. His end game in Ukraine is probably either a federation with the east heavily influenced by Russia or continuing low-intensity conflict. Sanctions have hurt the Russian economy, but lack full force without commitment from the EU (especially on oil). | Europe | Russia |
| 3/7/2015 | -In recent years, the US has increased the number of F-1 student visas (mostly for Chinese) but held steady the number of H-1B employment visas, sending increasing numbers of bright foreigners home after graduation. | United States | Immigration |
| 3/7/2015 | -Modi is finally reviving India’s foreign policy with visits to Japan (civilian nuclear cooperation, U-2 spy planes), Australia (joint naval exercises), and China (border dispute). | Asia | India |
| 3/7/2015 | -South Dakota has no oil industry and no large military base. But it keeps a 3.7% jobless rate through low taxes attracting hospitals, financial companies, and manufacturing. | United States | |
| 2/28/2015 | -The Euro Crisis which started four as a banking and sovereign-debt crisis has decayed into a growth crisis that is now enveloping its three biggest economies (Germany, France, Italy). Hollande and Renzi need to stay true to structural reform to allow Merkel to tolerate an easier fiscal stance and monetary policy. | Europe | |
| 2/28/2015 | -Thousands of Westerners have traveled to Syria through Turkey to join IS, which now controls a swath of land with the territory and population of Jordan. Many want to help fellow Muslims, some are more extreme, and some just want to escape home. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 2/28/2015 | -To deter Russian aggression, NATO put together a readiness action plan with a high-readiness brigade, but should have gone further by stationing 10,000 troops in Poland. | Europe | |
| 2/21/2015 | -Nobody knows what happened in Ferguson but the riots need to stop. The police should be less militarized, more diverse, and wear cameras. | United States | Policing |
| 2/21/2015 | -Mexico is launching the gendarmerie, a 5,000-strong police force. But it is more for optics than operational value. | Americas | Mexico |
| 2/21/2015 | -To avoid war with China, the US should only make promises it is prepared to keep (e.g. no red lines on islands in South China Sea, but protect Taiwan). It should welcome Chinese participation in military exercises. It may find it easier to include China in new projects than to give ground on old ones. | Asia | China |
| 2/14/2015 | -Argentina boasts the second-largest shale gas reserves in the world, but investment is slowed by price controls, export taxes, and its recent default on debt. | Americas | Argentina |
| 2/14/2015 | -Kazakhstan is launching a successful beef industry, and is aided by high demand in Russia due to its recent ban on Western produce. | Asia | Kazakhstan |
| 2/7/2015 | -China has made progress sending rural children to school, but in order to create the knowledge economy it seeks, it must improve quality. Many students quit school because of the cost, others fail the test, and most lack parental supervision at boarding schools. | Asia | China |
| 2/7/2015 | -Iraqi President Haider Al-Abadi is the same party as Maliki, and thus acceptable to most Shias. But with 30 years in exile in Britain, he is seen as closer to the West than Iran, which reassures Sunnis and the US. He speaks fluent English and has a reputation as a reformer. Still, he may not be too warm to the Sunnis as the Baathists executed two of his brothers. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 1/31/2015 | -Governments should rethink their policies on prostitution. The sex trade will always exist and its prohibition only makes it more bothersome and dangerous. | Global | |
| 1/31/2015 | -The WTO tends to pursue grand bargains over smaller agreements. The more regional and bilateral trade agreements, the less likely global pacts are. Modi refused to sign the latest deal because it wouldn’t let him expand India’s already enormous food subsidies. | Global | |
| 1/24/2015 | -As incomes have shot up over the past 35 years, Chinese alcohol intake has skyrocketed. | Asia | China |
| 1/24/2015 | -Despite a string of blunders (corruption, beating protestors), Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears destined for victory in the upcoming Presidential election. He is a manipulative autocrat, but has also eased Muslim restrictions, negotiated with the Kurds, and made Turkey a richer, freer, and happier place. | Europe | Turkey |
| 1/24/2015 | -Indians are protesting civil-service exams administered in English (the national language) for discriminating against those who did not attend English-language schools. | Asia | India |
| 1/24/2015 | -Xinjiang is becoming China’s Chechnya as separatist attacks continue. China has encouraged Han migration and poured money into infrastructure but needs to boost education and employment among Uighurs. | Asia | China |
| 1/17/2015 | -Africans like the US better than China, but Obama could do more to promote American investment (currently just 1% of overall foreign direct investment). Europe also wants the US/NATO to contribute more military support in the Maghreb. | Asia | China |
| 1/17/2015 | -Latin America’s term limits have loosened over the past two decades, which is concerning given the dominance of incumbents (though this has much to do with a decade of commodity-fueled economic growth). | Americas | |
| 1/10/2015 | -Israel is winning its battle against Hamas/Gaza but losing in the war for world opinion. Favorable opinion of Israel is at 26% (below Russia and above only North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran). While it may be held to too high a standard, continued killing of civilians and opposition to a two-state solution will only erode its popularity further. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 1/10/2015 | -Japan has restarted its nuclear program. While unpopular, it is critical to provide jobs and revenue to create an array of sports and cultural facilities. | Asia | Japan |
| 1/10/2015 | -Less than 30% of Chinese airspace is open to civil aviation (compare to 85% in the US). The rest is dedicated to military exercises which have exacerbated already dreadful airline delays. | Asia | China |
| 1/3/2015 | -More American companies are merging with foreign partners to avoid the American corporate tax. Lawmakers have tried to respond with regulations, but really need to lower the tax from 35% (highest in OECD) and limit the tax to only income earned within the US. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/3/2015 | -The US and Europe finally put together a tough and coordinated package of sanctions targeting state-owned banks and forbidding the export of technologies needed by Russia’s oil and defense industries. But Putin’s political survival depends less on economic growth than on wages, which may remain stable longer thanks to energy exports. | Europe | Russia |
| 12/20/2014 | -A planned power line from Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan was held up by war and corruption, but now is doomed by energy shortages in Kyrgyzstan caused by outdated infrastructure and state-run energy monopolies. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 12/20/2014 | -Israel and Gaza will continue to fight war after war until a more permanent agreement is reached. The last serious talks broke down primarily because Israel would not accept a Palestinian state--it’s time for them to accept a 2SS. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 12/20/2014 | -Since Brazil was eliminated from the World Cup, business confidence in the host nation has fallen as inflation is over 7%. Dilma Rousseff is hoping government spending on infrastructure can help her odds in October. | Americas | Brazil |
| 12/13/2014 | -Berlusconi was acquitted of both his charges of sleeping with an underage girl and although he cannot run for office, he is still exerting influence over Italy, helping Renzi reform the upper house of Parliament. | Europe | Italy |
| 12/13/2014 | -Two-thirds of the West supports assisted suicide, but it remains illegal in most places. | Global | |
| 12/6/2014 | -The turnover rate in Congress is less than most English monarchies. Result of gerrymandering, intense partisan warfare, and voter identification trends. | United States | Politics |
| 12/6/2014 | -Expectations on the supply of workers and rise in productivity have fallen short and growth estimates have been cut. Recommendations: keep interests rate low to boost demand, increase spending on infrastructure, reduce corporate tax rate, reduce regulations, and reform immigration. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/29/2014 | -Modi is tackling the dire public sanitation in India, as 72% of rural people defecate outdoors, with grave concerns for public health and safety. It will take more than just toilets, as many prefer to go outside. | Asia | India |
| 11/29/2014 | -Mr. Khamenei and Rouhani post updates on Twitter and Facebook even though they are both illegal in Iran--Rouhani wants to ease the restrictions. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 11/22/2014 | -France is reorganizing troops in central Africa into a 3,000-strong CT force based in Chad. | Europe | France |
| 11/22/2014 | -Russia took advantage of a summit to seal energy deals with Cuba, Argentina, and Brazil. | Europe | Russia |
| 11/15/2014 | -Benefits of legalizing marijuana: stops government from wasting money locking up people who haven’t hurt anyone, raises tax revenues, puts criminals out of business. Oregon, Alaska, and California are the next states to vote on legalizing it. | United States | Drugs |
| 11/15/2014 | -Companies are now providing enormous searchable databases of politicians statements. The software can automatically look for contradictions. | Global | |
| 11/15/2014 | -Data breaches are becoming bigger and more common (mostly cybercrime and online industrial espionage). Securing cyberspace is hard because the internet was designed to promote connectivity rather than security. Cybercrime includes crooks who are after money (e.g. spearphishing) and groups after fame (e.g. distributed denial of service). More encryption and robust passwords are needed. Companies are often reluctant to admit they’ve been hacked, but are starting to share information about attacks to prepare themselves. IoT will broaden threat surfaces. Silicon Valley’s tactic of pumping out new software as fast as possible and issuing patches to fix security flaws is becoming increasingly risky. SPECIAL REPORT. | Global | |
| 11/8/2014 | -A bulge of young men, high income inequality, and demand for drugs has made Latin America the most violent region. It must reform its criminal justice system to prevent corruption and promote rehabilitation. A male born in Honduras has a one-in-nine chance of being murdered. | Americas | |
| 11/8/2014 | -Ashraf Ghani, a technocrat with the support of Karzai, won the runoff election but Abdullah Abdullah claimed ballot-stuffing given the much larger turnout in round two. The sides agreed to audit the voting. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 11/8/2014 | -The Scots have a referendum on independence on September 18th. An independent Scotland may be more democratic, as its people are more liberal, but it would suffer economically, as its population is older and it would have to set up a new army, welfare system, currency, etc. | Europe | UK |
| 11/8/2014 | -Timeline of Gaza war: 3 Jews murdered in southern settlement. Revenge killing of Palestinian. Riots and rockets in Gaza. Israeli missile strikes. Hamas declined peace treaty. Israel invasion. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 11/1/2014 | -Saudi Arabia is using its anti-terrorism legislation against human rights activists. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 10/4/2014 | -ISIS expanded its goal and changed its name to just “IS.” But Iraqi forces are preparing to take back territory and the Kurds are beginning to fight them in the north. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 10/4/2014 | -The French bank BNP was hammered a year’s profit for funneling money to a deadly regime in Sudan. While deserved, US regulators had incentive to increase the fines as they kept the spoils. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/27/2014 | -FATCA requires banks, funds and other financial institutions to report assets held by American clients or face a ruinous 30% withholding tax. The costs of compliance dwarf the revenue it raises and real criminals will switch to non-financial assets like art and property. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/27/2014 | -The cost of college is rising just as the government decides it can no longer afford subsidies. At the same time, a technological revolution is allowing more free online classes which will reach more people but have high dropout rates and lack personal touch. | Global | Education |
| 9/27/2014 | -Since 1960, US spending on public infrastructure has fallen to half European levels. | United States | |
| 9/20/2014 | -Abe’s “third arrow” of structural economic reform may actually work this time due to desperation over an aging population, sluggish growth, and China’s rise. | Asia | China |
| 9/20/2014 | -Pakistan is finally launching an offensive against militants in the northwest, but it may be too late. NATO no longer has forces in Afghanistan to trap the insurgents and militant groups are no longer isolated to FATA. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 9/20/2014 | -Suicide rates in China have dropped rapidly, especially among rural women. It is primarily due to migration to cities and the rise of an urban middle class. Still, policies like one-child will cause the figure to skyrocket among the elderly. | Asia | China |
| 9/13/2014 | -Poland’s economy has grown more than any other EU country since the end of the Cold War due to its shock therapy transition to capitalism, effective use of EU membership, and continuous reforms. | Europe | Poland |
| 9/13/2014 | -While Sisi is popular for giving up half his salary and visiting a hospital, signs of growing authoritarianism are becoming increasingly obvious with sacking of opponents and a complex new law expanding the legislature to an unwieldy 567 members. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 9/6/2014 | -The origins of the Traditional/Tea party divide in the Republican Party was when the Bush Administration began diverging from the three tenets of Republicanism: defense hawks, social conservatives, and pro-business. | United States | Politics |
| 9/6/2014 | -Amazon revolutionized online shopping, customer reviews, e-books, and a model for renting cloud-computing space. Still, it risks becoming an unfair competitor amidst accusations of being a lousy employer, dodging taxes, and bullying its rivals. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/6/2014 | -Looking at the disaster in Ukraine, Kazakhstan is being careful not to anger its northern neighbor by forging ahead with the Eurasian Economic Union. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 9/6/2014 | -Maliki governed Iraq disastrously by replacing competent army officers who posed a threat and repressing Sunnis and keeping them out of governments. America can help with the Kurds, but it should focus on pulling the moderate Sunnis away from ISIS. It must accelerate its process of training moderate Syrian rebels. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 9/6/2014 | -The A-10 Warthog was designed for attacking Soviet tank columns, though it is popular with ground units in Afghanistan for low, loitering air cover. The House is considering scrapping it but it will be politically difficult. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 9/6/2014 | -While its overt presence has decreased, Russia continues to undermine the Ukrainian government. The EU should accelerate efforts to become less dependent on Russian oil and pursue its antitrust case against Gazprom. A new round of sanctions is also needed. | Europe | Russia |
| 8/30/2014 | -State programs to provide supervision and support for newly released criminals have reduced the recidivism rate and should be expanded. | United States | Policing |
| 8/30/2014 | -About a third of poor Chinese children suffer from anaemia because of a lack of iron, which can stunt brain development. Charities are promoting nutritional supplements, but local governments are hesitant to put money on childhood nutrition as the payoffs are years away. | Asia | China |
| 8/30/2014 | -Japan’s government has been building hundreds of new seawalls post-2011. But evidence for effectiveness is flimsy, they destroy local ecosystems, and they look hideous (may damage tourism). | Asia | Japan |
| 8/30/2014 | -Over the past year, ISIS has gained large swaths of territory in Syria and Iraq. It is already imposing taxes and set up an intelligence service. It may be cooperating with a network of Sunni remnants from Saddam’s underground resistance. Obama has refused to use drones thus far. Their biggest threat would be if Maliki is able to align with the well-equipped Kurdish forces. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 8/30/2014 | -Sharif may finally be the leader to overshadow the Pakistani military generals. His strong mandate, legislative majority, and independent media will help him, though the army was able to block attempts at peace talks with the Taliban. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 8/30/2014 | -The Capitol Power Plant in SE DC has been puffing since 1910, pumping out over 100,000 tons of carbon dioxide per year. Obama’s plan to cut emissions is welcome to reduce total emissions by around 5%, but falls short of a carbon tax or carbon market. | United States | |
| 8/23/2014 | -Iran’s leaders, worried about declining population since the late 1980s, are encouraging women to have 5-12 babies, but it may not be effective with a better educated population. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 8/23/2014 | -Qatar’s King Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa oversaw population and GDP growth, increasing influence with Al Jazeera, and the winning of the 2022 World Cup. But after abdicating last year, his son has been left with the Arab Spring, a football controversy, and angry neighbors. | Middle East & Africa | Qatar |
| 8/23/2014 | -The US has provided measured support for the new Palestinian government, which includes both Fatah and Hamas, though Israel is trying to sabotage it. It has more technocrats than seven years ago, but maintains a military wing, cultural divides, and a lack of funds. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 8/9/2014 | -Over Obama’s two terms, the number of deployed soldiers will drop from 180,000 to under 10,000. He vowed that when America’s direct interests are not threatened, America should not act alone and only use force if there is a good chance of victory. His foreign policy has been more reactive than principled. | United States | Military |
| 8/9/2014 | -Egyptian turnout in Sisi’s victory was much lower than expected, which makes his popularity hard to gage. He should open up democracy to non-violent Islamists and embrace open-market economies. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 8/9/2014 | -Protests in Brazil have become smaller and more radicalized, but the country is bringing in 100,000 policemen and 57,000 soldiers to keep peace during the World Cup. | Americas | Brazil |
| 8/9/2014 | -Rising nationalism, immigration concerns, and a down economy drove anti-EU parties to get 25% in France, 27% in England, and 40% in Greece. The EU could survive the loss of England but not France. The only solutions are economic prosperity and increased democracy. | Europe | |
| 8/9/2014 | -Sierra Leone is one of the few places in Western Africa where religious tolerance is enforced. | Middle East & Africa | Sierra Leone |
| 8/9/2014 | -The US loses as much as $272 billion each year on healthcare fraud (wide variety of tactics). Obamacare introduces tighter screening and data-crunching technology helps find fraud, but the system remains too complicated to enforce. | United States | Healthcare |
| 8/2/2014 | -A preference for sons has led to a serious imbalance of the sexes in South Korea, where men are marrying more foreigners. A homogenous society, the government responded by requiring that brides speak Korean and are supported financially. | Asia | Korea |
| 8/2/2014 | -As South and Central America have stepped up drug enforcement, more trafficking is coming through the Caribbean, on speed boats or cargo ships. This is bad news, as drug gangs become more entrenched. | Americas | |
| 8/2/2014 | -Narendra Modi won the most tremendous victory since Indian Independence. His centralized style and strong mandate may help him overcome India’s lagging political system. His first task will be cleaning out bad bank loans, sorting government finances, cutting subsidies, and widening the tax base. He should also create jobs and reach out to Pakistan. | Asia | India |
| 8/2/2014 | -Sisi is posed to win election in Egypt with the support of the army, civil service, rich businessmen, and a dominating block of ordinary citizens who simply want a return to stability. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 8/2/2014 | -The Justice Department unveiled charges against 5 members of the PLA for cyberspying. They won’t be arrested, but their names were released. China responded by pulling out of a bilateral working group on cyber security. The line between national security and commercial spying is blurry and America is spying on Huawei. | Asia | China |
| 8/2/2014 | -Ukraine’s new president, Petro Poroshenko, comes from the old corrupt system, but has laudable intentions, saying he will talk to non-violent separatists in the east. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 7/26/2014 | -The electorate for November’s US midterms are older and whiter than they have been since 1983. | United States | Politics |
| 7/26/2014 | -The US is looking into new missile defense programs which would use high altitude drones to shoot down missiles immediately upon takeoff, when they are most vulnerable (“boost phase intercept”). | United States | Military |
| 7/26/2014 | -Colombia’s economy is flourishing but the slow pace of peace talks with the FARC may doom Juan Manuel Santos’ re-election. | Americas | Colombia |
| 7/26/2014 | -Latin America spends less than 2% of GDP on transportation infrastructure. It also lacks people in the public sector with the training and experience to design, evaluate and supervise complex engineering projects. | Americas | |
| 7/26/2014 | -Saudi women are beginning to break the glass ceiling, competing in the Olympics and becoming editor of a daily newspaper. But education remains single sex. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 7/19/2014 | -Bill de Blasio is trying to build more affordable housing units over the coming decade, but the real problem is a lack of land and Byzantine rules about what can be built since 2008. | United States | Housing |
| 7/19/2014 | -As Obama tried to reassure rivals, the South China Sea flared up when Chinese ships rammed and sprayed water canons at Vietnamese Coast Guard ships and the Philippines arrested 15 Chinese fisherman. | Asia | China |
| 7/19/2014 | -DC Segway tour guides are required to pay up to $200 and take an exam for a permit. Violators can be imprisoned up to 90 days, a system which raises prices and kills jobs. | Other | |
| 7/19/2014 | -Polio is on the rise in Pakistan, where the Taliban claims vaccinations are anti-Muslim infertility drugs and they assassinate health workers. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 7/19/2014 | -Shadow banking (lending by institutions other than banks, mostly credit) is proliferating because of post-crisis regulations and higher capital requirements. They are good because if the loan goes wrong the creditor loses money without being tangled in the complex banking system, but they are dangerous in China where they are not regulated at all. | Asia | China |
| 7/19/2014 | -The “right to be forgotten” sounds good but is difficult in practice. Censoring Google in Europe will not censor it in the US and it undermines the internet’s neutrality. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/19/2014 | -Vermont may pass a law requiring labeling food with genetically-modified ingredients. This will unnecessarily spook consumers. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/12/2014 | -Boko Haram, founded in 2002 and turning violent in 2009, is increasing its attacks against soft targets like schools and markets. While Nigeria has the strongest army in Africa, President Jonathan’s indifferent response has done nothing to stop them. | Middle East & Africa | Nigeria |
| 7/12/2014 | -China’s billionaires are the least charitable in the world as they try not to identify themselves in a socialist country. Xi should help by applauding charitable donations, promoting civil society, and clarifying charities’ legal status. | Asia | China |
| 7/12/2014 | -Fund management was historically dominated by “active” funds in which a manager tried to select assets that will do better than average for a steep fee. They are losing ground to “passive” funds which just replicate the market for a negligible fee. Passive investing lends itself to economies of scale as 70% are controlled by BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/12/2014 | -In Kenya, the police are often as dangerous as the criminals. While bail is easy to get and court dates are often missed, an increasing number of police shoot criminals on arrest. | Middle East & Africa | Kenya |
| 7/12/2014 | -One might think the abundance of data would help politicians understand reality and drive debate, but it has instead just provided more ammo for both sides. | Global | |
| 7/12/2014 | -Other countries’ foreign policies depend on the US security umbrella. After failed interventions in the Middle East and no interventions in Syria and Ukraine, regional powers are keener to dominate their neighbors and international norms are weakening. Credibility is easily lost and hard to rebuild. America’s hard power still dominates but is slipping. | Global | |
| 7/12/2014 | -Outgoing Indian PM Manmohan Singh has been chastised by everybody in this extended election. He was passive against corruption, but he is responsible for poverty reduction, rural job and food schemes, polio eradication, and the taming of a once terrifying AIDS epidemic. | Asia | India |
| 7/12/2014 | -While known for generating asylum seekers more than receiving them, Sri Lanka is attracting Pakistani refugees who enter the country on 30-day tourist visas and can stay while their cases are examined by the UNHCR. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 7/5/2014 | -An estimated 88% of Syrian chemical weapons have been accounted for, though many more could be hidden. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 7/5/2014 | -Even the Ukrainian President has admitted that Ukrainian security forces are helpless in the east. They are paid little, reluctant to shoot to kill, and many were sent to Kiev during anti-government protests last winter and were told they were fighting the very “fascists” they are now supposed to take orders from. Sanctions are damaging the Russian economy, but Putin has no intent on slowing down given his domestic support. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 7/5/2014 | -In the next 20 years the population of 65+ will double to over a billion. Problems: Working longer keeps jobs from younger, collect government welfare, accumulate savings which weakens demand. Policy should impose higher inheritance taxes to encourage spending and remove overly generous pensions. | Global | |
| 7/5/2014 | -In the past year, the Central African Republic has seen its Christian government overthrown by Muslim rebels, which were overthrown by Christian militias. The thousands of UN and French peacekeepers have been unable to stop the brutality, but more troops are on the way. | Middle East & Africa | Central African Republic |
| 7/5/2014 | -Peru depends on a large southern oil reserve for its economic output but has developed the area with little regard for the isolated native tribes in the area. | Americas | Peru |
| 7/5/2014 | -Since January, Iraqi security forces have lost control of large chunks of Anbar province (west of Baghdad) to aggrieved Sunni fighters. ISIS holds Fallujah and parts of Ramadi. Maliki has sought to expand his power, but may be supporting sketchy Shia militias operating outside of the official army command. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 7/5/2014 | -The civil war in South Sudan risks becoming localized after a horrendous mass execution. The roots lie in the failing state government and there is little the UN can do as neighboring states have taken sides. | Middle East & Africa | Sudan |
| 7/5/2014 | -The US has stepped up drone strikes against AQAP in Yemen but the group remains strong in the lawless state and continues to execute attacks against military targets across the country. | Middle East & Africa | Yemen |
| 7/5/2014 | -The US still has the death penalty because most people favor it, but support has dropped from 80% to 60% in the last 20 years. Executions (with all appeals) are five times more expensive than life without parole and evidence of deterring murders is scant. | United States | Capital Punishment |
| 7/5/2014 | -Warren Buffett's strategy has been to seek solid firms with good defenses against competitors and hang onto them for the long term. He should sell Berkshire Hathaway to prevent a battle between his son and a powerful board of directors when he steps down. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/28/2014 | -Parole boards tend to overestimate the likelihood a prisoner will reoffend, approving ~1% of requests. Some are using data on age at first arrest, education, nature of crime, behavior in prison, and friends’ criminal records to study trends to help inform their decisions. | United States | Policing |
| 6/28/2014 | -15-year President Abdelaziz Bouteflika is destined to win Algeria’s election again even though he’s been essentially invisible for the past 2 years. Even if the Arab Spring has disappointed dreams of democracies, Algeria’s sham election proves that dictators are not the answer. | Middle East & Africa | Algeria |
| 6/28/2014 | -Assad has declared the “war on terror” at a turning point, but really the fighting has seemed to consolidate to territories held by both sides. While ISIS has been pushed back, Assad’s forces are making increasingly indiscriminate use of weaponry on rebel strongholds. While the UN claims to have destroyed ⅔ of the chemical weapons, there are rumors of a chlorine gas attack. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 6/28/2014 | -Brazilians are notoriously unproductive, primarily due to low investment in infrastructure, poor quality education, and poorly managed companies. | Americas | Brazil |
| 6/28/2014 | -Germany is a paragon of fiscal prudence but weak on structural reform. It has cut the retirement wage, introduced a high national minimum wage, and burning huge sums of money on energy subsidies. | Europe | Germany |
| 6/28/2014 | -Pope Francis has rescued the Catholic Church by refocusing the church on helping the poor, toning back anti-gay rhetoric, and restructuring the church (using McKinsey consultants to overhaul the organization). | Global | Religion |
| 6/28/2014 | -The West should stand up to Russia now to prevent confrontation later. Militarily, should strengthen air and cyber defenses and send troops to the Baltics and Poland. Economically, should broaden sanctions and cut Russia off from dollars, euros and sterling. Russia would likely mask an invasion as a peacekeeping operation while in fact creating a land corridor to Crimea. | Europe | Russia |
| 6/28/2014 | -LA faces challenges ranging from dismal public schools, crumbling infrastructure, and rising retirement costs. | United States | |
| 6/14/2014 | -Each US military service has spent millions of dollars developing ludicrous uniform designs, many of which have been abandoned. | United States | Military |
| 6/14/2014 | -After three failed attempts at ruling Pakistan, the generals have tried to be seen as getting out of politics. They still wield power, but the trial of Musharraf and the efforts for a peace deal with the Taliban defy them. A feisty judiciary and media appear likely to prevent another coup. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 6/14/2014 | -After years of hassling NGOs, China is now trying to register them. Human rights organizations are still banned, but natural disasters and the growing middle class are driving progress. Still, some activists worry they are strengthening the Communist Party’s dictatorial hold on power by helping it solve governance problems. | Asia | China |
| 6/14/2014 | -Healthy financial markets speed up an economy, channeling credit to firms which need it. The urge to regulate and protect the financial industry leaves it depending too heavily on state support. People no longer check a bank’s reliability because their deposits are government insured, and investors let financial firms borrow at lower rates since they know the government will bail them out. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/14/2014 | -Israel must give the Palestinians a state of their own if they wish to remain both Jewish and a democracy. Netanyahu briefly endorsed the idea five years ago and 75% of Israelis are okay with it, but too many in his party still refuse the 2SS. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 6/14/2014 | -Peru has adopted the “Italian model” of economic success despite political weakness, but if the political system cannot respond to the wishes of the people, it will not last. Confidence in government is historically low due to hyperinflation of the 1980s and the Shining Path violence. | Americas | Peru |
| 6/14/2014 | -Russia continues to try to promote unrest in Ukraine by sending small invading groups to take over weak government buildings. A new government faces the seemingly impossible task of making reforms without inflicting too much pain on the east or antagonizing the west. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 6/14/2014 | -The 1960 embargo on Cuba is now counterproductive--shoring shored up support for Cuba abroad and providing an excuse for its domestic totalitarianism. Politics have kept it alive--Cuban exiles in Florida block it while others don’t want to appear soft on communists. Obama has softened the embargo, but now would be a good time to remove it: Cuba is becoming less communist, it can no longer rely on Venezuela’s crumbling economy, and younger Americans don’t feel the hatred of Fidel. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 6/14/2014 | -The United States spent $10 billion trying to fight the opium trade in Afghanistan, shutting down the most farms in non-Taliban areas of the country. But demand for Afghan opium is inelastic, meaning if supply falls, the price shoots up, funneling more money to the remaining Taliban suppliers. Drug production in Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos are rising at its steepest rate in years. For many, it is the only financial option, and demand for yaba-style stimulants is growing, especially in China. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 6/14/2014 | -The Senate’s report on CIA interrogation includes 20 case studies in which the same intelligence could have been gained without EITs. | United States | |
| 6/7/2014 | -DefSec Chuck Hagel has launched a year-long review of military awards to address the controversy over awards for cyber warriors who are important but are not in harm’s way. Awards have historically been used to raise morale in targeted parts of the economy. | United States | Military |
| 6/7/2014 | -An Indian youth bulge, urbanization, and rising incomes should improve the next election. Narendra Modi, a former tea seller propelled to the top on sheer ability, is the overwhelming favorite to win the month-long election starting April 7th. But he has refused to come clean on his role in the Hindu rampage against Muslims in 2002 and his election could risk increased sectarian violence. | Asia | India |
| 6/7/2014 | -Brazil has proposed an internet bill of rights which would enshrine net neutrality and online privacy. The US is concerned that it could penalize firms based in the US. | Americas | Brazil |
| 6/7/2014 | -Exponential growth in the power of silicon chips, digital sensors and high-bandwidth communications may mean that robots will soon take off. R&D is getting easier, more companies are investing, and imagination is growing. SPECIAL REPORT. | Science & Technology | |
| 6/7/2014 | -India has one of the world’s highest rates of recycling because it pays ragpickers $1.67/day to go through trash dumps picking tash. This is inefficient and unhealthy, and Delhi’s shortage of landfill capacity is concerning. | Asia | India |
| 6/7/2014 | -Students occupied Taiwan’s legislature to protest a trade deal with China they believe will lead to an influx of Chinese businesses that will overwhelm Taiwanese competitors, threaten basic freedoms in areas such as publishing, and employ cheap mainland labor rather than Taiwanese. | Asia | China |
| 6/7/2014 | -The cost of university per student has risen by almost five times the rate of inflation since 1983. Nearly a third of those who take out such loans eventually drop out of college. | Global | Education |
| 6/7/2014 | -The International Court of Justice legally skewered Japan’s “scientific” whale hunts to the Antarctic Ocean. The whaling industry is so desperate for funds, and so politically connected, that it claimed $28m in tsunami relief funds. | Asia | Japan |
| 6/7/2014 | -The US has had good relations with Saudi Arabia since WWII, trading security for oil. But outlooks have diverged over Iran’s nuclear program, Arab Spring, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, and a lessening dependence on oil. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 6/7/2014 | -While most European monarchies pass from generation to generation, Muslim monarchies tend to go between brothers. Abdullah of Saudi Arabia recently named his third in command, his 69yo brother Muqrin, who is considered a steady hand. Challenges include the Arab Spring, jihadists in Syria, and Iran’s nuclear program. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 5/31/2014 | -Unlike the pragmatic conservatives who long-dominated North Carolina state politics, the Republicans now in charge are culture warriors focused on banning sharia, restricting abortion, and introducing strict voter-identification rules. | United States | Politics |
| 5/31/2014 | -The US police have become too militarized, with SWAT raids most commonly used to serve search warrants in non-violent drug cases. Is a result of post-9/11 money for weapons and rules which encourage departments to seize assets. | United States | Policing |
| 5/31/2014 | -Hamas remains the largest force in the Gaza Strip but it has lost regional partners such as Syria and Egypt, while Islamic Jihad is gaining appeal. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 5/31/2014 | -Marine Le Pen’s strength has been growing for some time due to her throaty charm and efforts to de-toxify the party’s anti-Semitic views. Stopping her will require the main parties to fix the economy and respond to voters’ concerns on immigration. | Europe | France |
| 5/31/2014 | -Mexico’s MIT finance minister is focused on busting monopolies and lowering prices for inputs like gas and electricity, but has been accused of not working with business enough. | Americas | Mexico |
| 5/31/2014 | -The discontent of the poor in Venezuela is masked by security forces and fear of losing benefits such as housing allocations, employment, or subsidized food which are contingent on political loyalty. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 5/31/2014 | -The world has a trillion dollar gap in spending on infrastructure, with investors and austere governments shying away from large and complex projects. This could be improved by professional project management and more efficient politics. | Global | |
| 5/24/2014 | -After years under dictatorship, Burma tried its first census but caused uproar by asking about race and limiting it to only 135 options (!) when there are so many mixtures. | Asia | Myanmar |
| 5/24/2014 | -Indonesian fires are started annually and intentionally to clear land created so much smoke it has closed schools in Singapore and Malaysia. Government efforts to outlaw the fires are not enforced. | Asia | Indonesia |
| 5/24/2014 | -Nuri al-Maliki is likely to win the April 30th Iraqi election, though he may struggle to form another coalition with bitter infighting and violence at highest levels since 2008. With Sunni fighters bouncing between Anbar Province and Syria, the Shiite security forces are struggling to assert power. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 5/24/2014 | -Syria proudly announced the creation of a national space agency while 40% of its 23 million citizens remain homeless. Assad has made advances but has been unable to capitalize on infighting between rebels in the north. Meanwhile, rebels still control areas within striking distance of Damascus and overran a prison in the south. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 5/24/2014 | -While Italy has cut its budget deficit, its debt/GDP is rising due to a lack of growth. New PM Renzi is trying to rally leniency in Europe to cut taxes and increase demand. | Europe | Italy |
| 5/17/2014 | -The proportion of American households with guns has declined from 50% to 35%, but the number of guns is rising. The US has .89 guns per person; the next highest is Yemen with .55. | United States | |
| 5/17/2014 | -China’s defense budget increased by double digits again this year. It is closing the gap with the US, but its military spending is now outstripping GDP growth, defense inflation is growing, and the more China commits itself to sophisticated weapons systems, the more challenging it will be to make it all work together (especially with no combat experience). | Asia | China |
| 5/17/2014 | -Events in Ukraine pose two worries for Central Asian autocrats: 1) anti-government protests could inspire their own citizens 2) the invasion of Crimean could be a blueprint for future Russian invasions. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 5/17/2014 | -Libya is still riven with regional and tribal faultlines three years after the ousting of Gaddafi. Since July, a group has blockaded Libya’s main oil ports and recently sold $30m of oil to North Korea. This could be a descent into deeper disorder. | Middle East & Africa | Libya |
| 5/17/2014 | -Not a single Latin American constitution is older than 1978 and they change frequently. Change is okay but stability will help people take rules more seriously. | Americas | |
| 5/17/2014 | -Parts of rural Mexico are beginning to rely on vigilante groups. Similar circumstances in Colombia led to the creation of the United Self-Defense Forces which killed 20,000 civilians in the 1980s. | Americas | Mexico |
| 5/17/2014 | -The success of the Affordable Care Act will depend on how many of the newly enrolled 1) were previously uninsured 2) are sick and 3) are young. | United States | Healthcare |
| 5/10/2014 | -Ohio politicians proposed a bill to make lying a crime punishable by six months in prison. While a noble effort, it’s not practical or enforceable. | United States | |
| 5/10/2014 | -The Supreme Court ruled that the mentally retarded cannot be put to death. Florida defines this threshold as below 70 on an IQ test, generating incentives for prisoners to score worse. | United States | |
| 5/10/2014 | -After a brutal knife attack at a train station, the Communist Party must alter its policies towards ethnic minorities such as the Uighurs and Tibetans by lifting bans on religious and cultural practices, and promoting economic development. | Asia | China |
| 5/10/2014 | -Declining birth rates make populations more productive. It has dropped everywhere (except Sub-Saharan Africa due to less dense populations, communal social arrangements, and a lack of contraceptives). | Global | |
| 5/10/2014 | -Economic pressures have finally allowed the Japanese government to reinvigorate the nuclear power industry but it has made the safety administration more independent and powerful. | Asia | Japan |
| 5/10/2014 | -Kim Jong Un may have executed another powerful statesman while simultaneously signaling economic reform through economic-development zones, a building boom, and welcoming more foreign visitors. | Asia | Korea |
| 5/10/2014 | -The recent diplomatic flare-up between Qatar and its neighbors (long time coming over Al Jazeera and Arab Spring), puts the US in an awkward spot given its large military dependence on Qatar. | Middle East & Africa | Qatar |
| 5/10/2014 | -Ukraine made mistakes by passing a bill to repeal the Russian language and failing to bring Eastern politicians into the new government. But Russia has made more mistakes by acting unprovoked, reinvigorating NATO, and threatening vital European trade. Risking war nuclear war with Russia is not worth it, but the West needs to stand up to it for its invasion of Ukraine through visa bans, asset freezes, stopping arms sales, and reducing dependence on gas. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 4/26/2014 | -The Berry Amendment, passed in 1941, requires that nearly all food and equipment given to soldiers is from the US. It is too strict and makes procurement expensive/hard to cut. | United States | Military |
| 4/26/2014 | -700M people are exposed to second-hand smoke in China. The government imposed a partial ban, but should focus on strict bans, education, and heavy taxation. | Asia | China |
| 4/26/2014 | -Diplomatic pressure was unable to stop the passage of a law in Uganda which imposes life imprisonment for homosexuality and requires Ugandans to report anyone they are suspicious of homosexuality. | Middle East & Africa | Uganda |
| 4/26/2014 | -El Chapo should be kept in a Mexican prison (not American) because Mexico bore the brunt of his crimes, the US has an iffy record with extraditions, and it could instill confidence in the Mexican legal system. | Americas | Mexico |
| 4/26/2014 | -Four weeks after seeking dialogue with the Taliban, Sharif now seems ready to attack, increasing bombings and preparing for a ground invasion by April. His political opponent opposes military action. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 4/26/2014 | -The 76yo president of Algeria hasn’t been seen in over two months but wants to run for President again and will likely win due to a splintered opposition. | Middle East & Africa | Algeria |
| 4/19/2014 | -Maine, Connecticut, New Jersey, Kentucky, Illinois, and Louisiana all have pension liabilities greater than 120% of their annual revenue. Reform in Rhode Island was weakened due to pensioners’ legal challenges. | United States | |
| 4/19/2014 | -Prospects for a fast track option for free trade negotiations appear bleak as Democrats blame free trade for inequality and Republicans don’t want to give Obama any leeway. It will be costly for global output. | United States | |
| 4/19/2014 | -China’s local provinces are larger than most countries. A new report also reveals that some of them have astronomical debts resulting from major infrastructural projects. They are especially concerning given the low tax rates they bring in. | Asia | China |
| 4/19/2014 | -Iranian PM Rohani has brought some optimism in Iran, but faces opposition on his diplomatic initiatives. Nuclear decisions remain dependent on the Ayatollah Khomeini. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 4/19/2014 | -The West needs to stand up to Russia for meddling in Ukrainian affairs and setting the conditions for recent violence. It should be ejected from the G8. | Europe | Russia |
| 4/19/2014 | -Three major Colombian generals have been fired in the past couple weeks for controversial statements, though President Santos needs to preserve strong relations with the military to implement the FARC peace deal. | Americas | Colombia |
| 4/19/2014 | -To prevent a tragedy of the commons, fishing subsidies should be expanded, all fishing vessels should be registered, and more marine reserves should be created (13% of land is protected but less than 1% of sea). | Global | |
| 4/12/2014 | -Last year, the US removed 369,000 (⅔ while crossing) of an estimated 11.7m undocumented immigrants. This is a rate nine times that of 20 years ago even as immigration has slowed. Policy has focused on getting rid of criminals, but a 1996 Republican law and post-9/11 laws have made misdemeanors felonies and increased resources for deportation. It is expensive and a huge logistical burden for many people who support the US economy. | United States | Immigration |
| 4/12/2014 | -NYC Mayor de Blasio wants to curtail the growth of charter schools, which are popular with parents and have helped support the under-resourced school system in Chicago. | United States | Education |
| 4/12/2014 | -Argentina’s President Cristina Fernandez is just the latest in a string of economically illiterate populists who have wrecked the economy. It’s 100-year decline has been a result of world wars that blocked trade, weak institutions (six military coups), nativist politicians (protecting inefficient industries), and lazy dependence on a few assets. | Americas | Argentina |
| 4/12/2014 | -Brazil, which gets 80% of its electricity from hydropower is suffering from a dry summer, soaring consumption, and Rousseff’s electoral promises to keep prices low. | Americas | Brazil |
| 4/12/2014 | -Harry Reid is vowing to withhold the “trade promotion authority” or fast-track to allow President Obama to negotiate trade deals and present them to Congress for yes-no vote. This could severely threaten prospects of the TPP, US-Japan, and US-Europe deals. | Asia | Japan |
| 4/12/2014 | -Matteo Renzi is taking over as Italian PM. He is young and passionate for reform but will face the same obstacles as his predecessors: weak left-right coalition, entrenched opposition, radical partners in Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo. | Europe | Italy |
| 4/12/2014 | -The best way Pakistan could improve its economy is by providing more reliable electricity. This will require sorting out a public-private mess of regulations that relies on imports of oil and gas. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 4/12/2014 | -US oil production peaked in 1970, declined until 2008, and now is increasing. It may have already surpassed Russia as the largest producer of oil and gas; by 2020 it will overtake Saudi Arabia as largest pumper of oil. Although the oil boom should not affect US foreign policy, it should remove the ban of the export of crude oil, which only pads the pockets of the refineries. | Business & Economics | |
| 4/5/2014 | -Burmese leader Aung San Suu Kyi is a Nobel laureate and leads the country’s biggest opposition party, but she may not be able to run for President because of a congressional ban against those whose spouse or children are foreign citizens (her husband is British). | Asia | Myanmar |
| 4/5/2014 | -China has five national schools for training Communist Party members, where students learn to be responsive to the growing press and public even as they toe the party line. | Asia | China |
| 4/5/2014 | -In 2012, El Salvadoran President Mauricio Funes brokered a truce between the MS-13 and Barrio 18 gangs. If the rightist party wins the upcoming runoff election it will abandon the treaty and adopt an iron fist policy against gangs. | Americas | El Salvador |
| 4/5/2014 | -Over the past two decades, many have come to favor tackling heroin abuse through harm reduction policies such as setting up safe sites where users can inject under supervision for free. Results are promising. | Global | Drugs |
| 4/5/2014 | -Those who cast doubt on Africa’s rise often point to the continent’s lack of manufacturing, but a quiet boom is already taking place. It is fueled by the spread of retail, electricity, and education. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 4/5/2014 | -The CBO suggested that Obamacare could lower full-time employment by 2.3m in 2021. While it may decrease job-lock, it is outweighed by the burden of fewer people working. | United States | Healthcare |
| 3/29/2014 | -Americans have gotten used to the idea that gerrymandering of the electoral system and polarization of political parties have set the branches of government against each other. Still, bipartisanship may yet have a chance on expanding the EITC or immigration reform as both sides try to appear cooperative. | United States | |
| 3/29/2014 | -A new study found social mobility has remained roughly steady since 1971: could be that barriers to mobility such as discrimination are falling. Still, the share of income going to the top 1% is soaring. | Global | |
| 3/29/2014 | -After 46 years of conflict and 18 years of negotiations the Philippines and MILF signed a peace treaty that grants autonomy but not independence. | Asia | Philippines |
| 3/29/2014 | -Both Venezuela and Argentina are approaching a breaking point. They both dish out proceeds of an unrepeatable commodity boom (oil, soya), use a mix of central-bank interventions and administrative controls to keep overvalued exchange rates from falling and inflation from rising. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 3/29/2014 | -Despite their wealth, the mood in Saudi Arabia is uneasy. The government builds fancy new buildings and transportation systems but the people have no say in government--still they see the results of the Arab Spring and don’t want to rock the boat. The successor to King Abdullah (90) is uncertain. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 3/29/2014 | -Karzai risks Afghan security by continuing to vilify America: accusing them of psychological and insurgent warfare, blaming them for civilian deaths, and releasing dangerous detainees. Obama seems likely to keep 10,000 troops in Afghanistan for about 2 years past 2014. He’s hoping Karzai’s successor will sign the pact, but if the election goes two rounds it would be delayed until at least June. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 3/29/2014 | -The demand for fresh cadavers is increasing but the supply is diminishing as few people nowadays die young. Body-broker firms help facilitate the market but also has a shady side. | Science & Technology | |
| 3/29/2014 | -The remaining 155 Guantanamo prisoners (90 of which are Yemeni) could be sent to Socotra, an island off the coast of Yemen, but the locals don’t want it. | Middle East & Africa | Yemen |
| 3/22/2014 | -California governor Jerry Brown has taken debt from $25.4b to a $4.2b surplus. But taxes (narrow tax base), debt (pensions), and red tape (regulations) still pose lingering problems. | United States | |
| 3/22/2014 | -Obama’s changes to NSA surveillance: (1) Government will pay private firms to store the phone data; (2) Prevent agencies from obtaining information about companies without telling them (National Security Letters) (3) Listen to phones of friends and allies only “when necessary.” | United States | |
| 3/22/2014 | -After two months of largely peaceful protests in Kiev, recent violence indicated that both sides are becoming radicalized. Yanukovych is in trouble. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 3/22/2014 | -An Egyptian referendum on the constitution received 30% turnout and 98% support but the Muslim Brotherhood remains dissatisfied in the face of mass arrests and disgruntlement at a return to the past. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 3/22/2014 | -Ed Miliband is moving the British Labor Party left by promising to freeze household energy prices, confiscare undeveloped land, break up retail banks, and launch state-funded competitors. | Europe | UK |
| 3/22/2014 | -For the past three decades, multinational companies have poured into China. But flagging growth, rising costs, increased restrictions, less labor, and soaring wages means that the golden age is over. | Asia | China |
| 3/22/2014 | -Former Pakistani General and President Pervez Musharraf has been trying to avoid his trial for high treason by claiming he was unsafe and sick. He seems to be hoping PM Sharif will bundle him off to the United States for medical treatment. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 3/22/2014 | -La Salada in Buenos Aires is South America’s largest informal market. Vendors sell around $40M of goods each day in cash. Government efforts to collect taxes could be seen as an attack on the poor. | Americas | Argentina |
| 3/22/2014 | -Putin has had success seeing off domestic protests, blocking Western intervention in Syria, raising defense spending, and persuading Ukraine to abandon the EU. But the economy is in peril: 75% dependence on energy exports, high labor costs, shrinking labor force, low productivity, poor education, uncompetitive, corrupt government. Need privatization, protections for investors, and a reliable legal system. At $50b, this is by far the most expensive Olympics ever. | Europe | Russia |
| 3/22/2014 | -The Geneva conference will achieve nothing but buy Assad time and legitimacy--Assad has no incentive to budge while he thinks he is winning. The west needs to arm the rebels (as Russia is arming Assad) to change the direction of the conflict. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 3/15/2014 | -California has added new tax credits for filmmakers to keep the movie industry in their state but many are taking their business elsewhere. | United States | |
| 3/15/2014 | -A study found that the reality TV show “16 and pregnant” helped reduce teenage births in America by 5.7% in the 18 months following its release. | Other | |
| 3/15/2014 | -Brazil’s hellish penal system is overcrowded, violent, and brutal. Everyone wants to build hospitals and schools but the most urgent need is for more prisons and legal reforms (41% of inmates are awaiting trials). | Americas | Brazil |
| 3/15/2014 | -European climate policy should stop tinkering with renewable energy targets and focus on carbon markets (remove exemptions). | Europe | |
| 3/15/2014 | -Explosion of tech startups resembles the dotcom boom but this one might last. The availability of hosting, code, and platformization (combing) make them cheap to start. The presence of accelerators (like grad schools for startups) has made them popular all around the world, though their true home is Silicon Valley (hardware is based in Shenzhen, China). SPECIAL REPORT. | Asia | China |
| 3/15/2014 | -Innovation has always cost jobs and increased the income gap. Rather than taxes or minimum wage, governments must help their citizens with more education. But as computers do increasingly complicated tasks, technology will win in the race against education. | Global | |
| 3/15/2014 | -Italian PD leader Matteo Renzi joined forces with the convict Berlusconi to propose a new electoral law and constitutional overhaul to make one house of Congress more powerful and help push legislation through. | Europe | Italy |
| 3/8/2014 | -Public opinion has begun tilting in favor of legalizing marijuana. While marijuana is not good for you, if it displaces liquor drinking it could improve public health, but it needs to be regulated and taxed. Its success in Colorado and Washington will determine whether it spreads further. | United States | Drugs |
| 3/8/2014 | -Economic omens for the US economy are good. The Fed will begin tapering bond purchases soon, but vows to keep interest rates near 0 until 2015. | United States | |
| 3/8/2014 | -A parenting method of “positive discipline” is catching on, which aims to teach children self-control and empathy by asking kids to suggest their own ways of tackling projects rather than yelling at them. | Global | |
| 3/8/2014 | -Canadians support mass immigration because they have policies that focus on admitting employable people and programs to help them settle in. Still, conservative areas like Quebec focus more on assimilation than multiculturalism. | Americas | Canada |
| 3/8/2014 | -Cuba allowed the purchase of modern cars but their enormous price tags demonstrate the economy is still controlled. | Americas | Cuba |
| 3/8/2014 | -Governments should sell of some of their estimated $35 trillion of non-financial assets (buildings, land, subsoil resources). This will allow governments to cut their debts and improve their credit ratings, thus reducing their outgoings, and it improves the economy’s efficiency by boosting competition and applying private-sector capital and skills to newly privatized assets. | Business & Economics | |
| 3/8/2014 | -ISIS fighters have made gains but face battles on three fronts. Its brutal methods, as well as its reliance on foreign fighters have made the group unpopular. | Global | Terrorism |
| 3/8/2014 | -It is unclear whether Japan’s pacifist constitution prevents its Self-Defence Forces from striking back before its citizens are injured. It is also unclear whether the US would go to war to protect the disputed Senkaku islands from China. These uncertainties are dangerous because they could lure China into a miscalculation. | Asia | China |
| 3/8/2014 | -Many economists worry China will fall to a middle income trap by failing to transition from cheap labor and brute capital to a more sophisticated economy. The wealthy coastline is far ahead of the poorer cities inland, which will need help from the Asian Development Bank. | Asia | China |
| 3/8/2014 | -The Iran deal is best understood as a 6-month deal to buy time--neither side made major concessions. These sorts of extensions may be exactly Iran’s game plan as nuclear concessions are reversible but easing of sanctions could make them appear reasonable to the international community. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 3/8/2014 | -The young Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi (son of Sonia) could have PM if he wanted the job, but he is shy and keen on development work over politics. The big threat is from the surging anti-corruption AAP party. | Asia | India |
| 3/8/2014 | -Tunisia’s democratic transition has been erratic but the pending passage of a constitution is a momentous achievement. Incoming PM Mehdi Jomaa will need to improve Tunisians quality of life (health, employment) | Middle East & Africa | Tunisia |
| 3/1/2014 | -The US current account has dropped by roughly 60% since 2002 for two reasons: 1) surge in domestically produced oil and gas 2) US manufacturers have stopped losing market share | United States | |
| 3/1/2014 | -Britain’s growing population is outpacing the number of new houses, creating an economic drag. The government should give local councils incentives to allow construction and tax the value of land in order to encourage builders to get to work quickly. | Europe | UK |
| 3/1/2014 | -France’s economy is one of the worst off in Europe and Hollande’s response has been hapless. He has tried to raise taxes rather than cut public spending but the state is too big. | Europe | France |
| 3/1/2014 | -Insurgent parties are on the rise in Europe. While they are smaller and more diverse than the Tea Party in the US, they are all angry people harking back to simpler times. They are succeeding partially because of the Euro Crisis and partly because the mainstream is doing so poorly. | Europe | |
| 3/1/2014 | -Mexico added a number of new taxes (VAT, metro fare, food) aimed at the rich but will end up clobbering the poor. | Americas | Mexico |
| 3/1/2014 | -NAFTA has succeeded in increasing trade without stealing jobs. But it should make shipping goods more efficient and embrace freer movement of people. | Americas | |
| 3/1/2014 | -Pharmaceutical firms protect their intellectual property by suing those who try to sell drugs more cheaply. While banning cheap HIV medicine from Africa was unpopular, the current problem is a steady wave of diseases that come with age, not an AIDS epidemic. Thus, governments should focus on protecting patents rather than compulsory licensing. | Business & Economics | |
| 3/1/2014 | -Shinzo Abe set off a diplomatic disaster by visiting a memorial to 14 high-ranking war criminals. China, South Korea, and America all denounced the visit. | Asia | China |
| 3/1/2014 | -Tayyip Erdogan, once hailed as a Turkish hero, has destroyed his legacy by strong arming the government in response to corruption charges against senior cabinet ministers. | Europe | Turkey |
| 3/1/2014 | -The 2014 economic forecast is optimistic, driven by the United States, where household/corporate balance sheets are in good shape, companies are competitive, and fiscal spending has gotten a little more responsible. | Global | |
| 3/1/2014 | -The flimsy barriers that have held Lebanon together are wearing thin. Iran’s revolutionary guard is trying to prop up the Shia party-cum militia Hezbollah, while the traditionally moderate Sunnis are being infiltrated by gangs from Syria. Unless the parliament, which has not met in months, chooses a new president by the spring, the country will enter a dangerous political vacuum. | Middle East & Africa | Lebanon |
| 2/22/2014 | -Like mandatory minimums, zero tolerance policies in schools were intended to ensure that bad behavior drew uniform response, but they instead lead to wildly disproportionate punishment. | United States | Policing |
| 2/22/2014 | -America’s current shale energy boom has plenty in common with the 1848 gold rush by luring young men to wild frontier towns in search of wealth. There could be unforeseen consequences, as the gold rush may have spawned Silicon Valley via Stanford University. | United States | |
| 2/22/2014 | -A Chinese rover made the first soft landing on the moon since 1976. China’s actions across the board seem more assertive between offshore confrontations and domestic showdowns. | Asia | China |
| 2/22/2014 | -As jihadists gain strength in Syria, some western officials are quietly advocating re-engagement with Bashar Assad. Others feel the only course left is to work with the last non-AQ opposition with real power, the Islamic Front. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 2/22/2014 | -Deaths linked to alcohol consumption have tripled since 1990 as booze have become more affordable. The best way to tackle excessive drinking is to tax it based on alcohol content, as Scotland is considering. | Other | |
| 2/22/2014 | -Ghana is still west Africa’s biggest economic and political success, but president John Mahama will have to push additional austerity on an already squeezed population to keep the economy afloat. | Middle East & Africa | Ghana |
| 2/22/2014 | -North Korea’s execution of Kim Jong Un’s uncle may have been because he was too close with the Chinese. His swift departure could shake up relations between the neighbors. | Asia | Korea |
| 2/22/2014 | -Paraguay President Horacio Cartes is new to politics but has prudently chosen a technocratic cabinet, passed a fiscal-responsibility law, and reignited connections with MERCOSUR. Still, he must restore faith in his historically corrupt party and rely on trickle-down economics in the most unequal nation in South America. | Americas | Paraguay |
| 2/15/2014 | -As income inequality grows and workers’ share of national income shrinks, the case for a minimum wage grows. Because real labor markets are not perfectly competitive, a minimum wage could boost pay with no ill effect on jobs. But politicians should let technocrats set it. | Global | |
| 2/15/2014 | -Five American financial regulators approved the Volcker Rule which prohibits deposit-taking banks from trading on their own account. But its complexity (1,000 pages) makes it unlikely to succeed. | Business & Economics | |
| 2/15/2014 | -Heathrow, the world’s busiest international airport (barely larger than Dubai), badly needs a third runway. The best option will require moving 1500 houses and a highway, but better than rebuilding the airport. | Europe | UK |
| 2/15/2014 | -The WTO finalized its first deal, a trade facilitation deal that simplifies customs procedures and could raise annual global output by $400 billion. While not drastic, the main lesson is not to repeat the all-or-nothing approach of the Doha round. The WTO must use rise of regional partnerships (EU-Canada, TPP, TAT, EU-Mercosur) to help draw more nations into the global system. | Americas | Canada |
| 2/15/2014 | -While Putin won over the corrupt Ukrainian leader, the country’s looming economic collapse may soon become Russia’s problem to bail out. The domestic unrest has made Mr. Yanukovych a lame duck. | Europe | Russia |
| 2/8/2014 | -Kentuckians can’t stand Barack Obama, but they do like his policies: the Affordable Care Act (among the least healthy states) and his education reform (low in education). | United States | Politics |
| 2/8/2014 | -Texas’ new voter ID law brought about logistical challenges at polling places even for those with new IDs, including its most ardent supporter, Attorney General Greg Wayne. | United States | |
| 2/8/2014 | -The budget deal increases governmental fees on airline passengers rather than taxes. Expiring stimulus measures mean the federal budget will remain a drag on the economy but lessen the impact. It should keep the government open but does not address entitlement spending. | United States | |
| 2/8/2014 | -Bahrain, where a Sunni monarchy rules over a Shia majority, suppressed the Arab Spring with the help of Saudi troops. But youth unrest is building and the government is framing it as a sectarian struggle. | Middle East & Africa | Bahrain |
| 2/8/2014 | -Chinese authorities halted the annual visa-renewal process for at least 24 journalists working for American media after they wrote stories about the wealth accumulated by the families of China’s leaders. | Asia | China |
| 2/8/2014 | -Many Chinese protest genetically modified food because they fear American-owned biotech companies are trying to control the Chinese food supply. | Asia | China |
| 2/8/2014 | -Nelson Mandela’s two greatest accomplishments were his fortitude during 27 years in prison and his ability to engineer South Africa’s transformation from apartheid to free. Since he left the presidency in 1999 the country has disappointed--Zuma is corrupt and the economy is ruined. Some thought Mandela’s death would remind voters of the ANC’s crucial role, but it may also free voters from attachment to the party. | Middle East & Africa | South Africa |
| 2/8/2014 | -Singapore, a usually peaceful city, was overcome with street violence after a bus driver accidentally ran over an immigrant. | Asia | Singapore |
| 2/1/2014 | -A judge ruled Detroit’s filing for bankruptcy did not violate the constitution, meaning that pensions are not untouchable. Other cities like Chicago may be next. | United States | |
| 2/1/2014 | -Although the Afghan loya jirga unanimously supported the US Security Pact, Karzai refuses to sign. He is putting the future of the country in jeopardy, but the US has no choice but to begin looking forward to working with other candidates in April’s election. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 2/1/2014 | -Around the clock air refueling missions over Afghanistan cost the US military $200m per year but allow F-16 and A-10 to reach any point in Afghanistan within a few minutes. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 2/1/2014 | -As it leaves Afghanistan, America’s strategic needs in central Asia (Turk, Uzbek, Tajik, Kazakh, Kyrgyz) are fading and aid budgets are shrinking. China is exploiting these natural resource rich neighbors. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 2/1/2014 | -Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s economic legacy is doomed as growth has averaged 2% and inflation 6%, government finances deteriorated, and a current account deficit emerged. | Americas | Brazil |
| 2/1/2014 | -Egypt remains in trouble. New batches of prisoners keep funneling in as power shifts. A new constitution calling for elections in 60 days will likely pass, but the country is hurt by plummeting tourism revenues. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 2/1/2014 | -If Iran shows restraint and the world rewards it, the current deal could generate sufficient goodwill to reach a more durable agreement soon. While Iran has a reputation for breaking agreements, there is not much for the West to lose. Bombing would set regime back a few years--long term deal could change region (less support for Hezbollah, Syria, etc.). | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 2/1/2014 | -The Chinese are split between viewing Mao as tyrant or god. President Xi has shown fondness for the great leader but is ideologically very different. | Asia | China |
| 2/1/2014 | -Ukrainian protests shifted from a focus on the EU trade deal to an existential choice between a corrupt post-Soviet system and respectful European one. Compared to the 2004 Orange Revolution (against the corrupt election of the current thug President), the protesters are less organized and more likely to turn violent. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 2/1/2014 | -With $4.1 trillion of directly controlled assets, BlackRock owns a stake in almost every listed company. It has succeeded by offering cheap but safe funds. Still, its dominance is concerning: other firms rely on its analysis and this lack of diversity will be costly when it makes mistake. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/25/2014 | -The Senate’s move to eliminate supermajority requirement to end filibuster reflects gloom at the prospect of getting anything done before the next electoral cycle and desperation to get some nominees approved. | United States | Politics |
| 1/25/2014 | -California’s poverty reached 22%. Governor Jerry Brown has done little besides send more cash to low-income schools and approve a rise in the minimum wage. | United States | |
| 1/25/2014 | -Desperate for Russian loans/lack of oversight, the Ukrainian President decided against signing a trade deal with the EU. May not be worst outcome: Ukraine would have reneged anyway and proved popular opinion in Ukraine wants EU membership. | Europe | Ukraine |
| 1/25/2014 | -Germany’s new CSU/SPD grand coalition threatens to reverse some of the reforms that made Germany successful (e.g. higher minimum wage, lower pension age, closing nuclear reactors). | Europe | Germany |
| 1/25/2014 | -Japan’s conservative government passed a new secrecy law which increases punishments for leaks and allows agencies to designate what counts as a state secret into defense, diplomacy, counter-espionage, or counter-terrorism. | Asia | Japan |
| 1/25/2014 | -Juan Orlando Hernandez won the presidency in Honduras, which has the world’s highest murder rate. He must renew a standby facility with the IMF by cutting the budget deficit through electricity tariffs and eliminating VAT exemptions. | Americas | Honduras |
| 1/25/2014 | -Stolen Identity (Tax) Refund Fraud accounts affects nearly 12.6 million people each year. Data scientists are helping fight it using filters and algorithms in giant data hubs. | Science & Technology | |
| 1/25/2014 | -The value of Bitcoin has all the telling signs of a bubble that will likely burst but excitement has already prompted other cryptic currencies (“altcoins”). | Science & Technology | |
| 1/18/2014 | -Berlusconi was removed from the Senate following his conviction for tax evasion. He could now face prison time as he faces charges for paying an underage prostitute and perverting the course of justice. | Europe | Italy |
| 1/18/2014 | -Egypt’s Sunni Salafists backed the coup against Morsi, but still fear the anti-Islamist government may come after them next. Based in Alexandria, their Nour Party says it will not field a candidate for president. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 1/18/2014 | -There is a growing divide in Nigeria between the oil-rich south and the poor insurgent north. The north, infested by Boko Haram, is struggling with farming and fails to attract investment. | Middle East & Africa | Nigeria |
| 1/18/2014 | -While decisive abroad (Algeria, Nigeria, and Central African Republic), Hollande is increasingly dithering at home as he backed down on an attempt to implement in eco-tax. | Europe | France |
| 1/11/2014 | -Two-thirds of prisoners are back in prison within three years. The Second Chance Act, up for renewal in Congress, has lowered recidivism by providing education to make ex-cons more employable. | United States | Policing |
| 1/11/2014 | -The messy healthcare rollout has revealed Obama’s leadership weaknesses. In the days before October 1, he was blithely unaware that anything was amiss. He gives great speeches but fails to build relationships and seldom reaches out to political opponents. | United States | Healthcare |
| 1/11/2014 | -Dubai is recovering from a tremendous crash in the wake of the financial crisis A new metro is efficient and popular, property prices are surging, and investors are pleased. | Middle East & Africa | UAE |
| 1/11/2014 | -Growing wealth and distrust of financial systems has led the world’s rich to increasingly invest in expensive goods (e.g. art) and store them in freeports--storage facilities near airports. They provide security, confidentiality and an array of tax advantages. | Business & Economics | |
| 1/11/2014 | -Pena Nieto has passed a lot of reforms in education, telecoms, banking and energy but the larger test may be in implementation. | Americas | Mexico |
| 1/11/2014 | -Political implications of natural disasters can either be good (helped end violence in Aceh) or bad (sharpened conflict in Tamil). | Global | |
| 1/11/2014 | -The overview of China’s plenum was the most striking economic document in two decades, allowing for an insurance system to protect depositors and making its currency fully convertible. Politically, it centralized power but also allowed “social organizations” (NGOs) and could create judicial systems independent from local governments (both could help make officials more accountable). It made two concessions in human rights, abolishing labor camps and relaxing the one-child policy. | Asia | China |
| 1/11/2014 | -The son of Suriname’s president was arrested in Panama on suspicions of cocaine smuggling, passport fraud and aiding Hezbollah. It has scarcely caused a ripple in Suriname. | Americas | Suriname |
| 1/11/2014 | -The white minority (9%) in South Africa has continued to do well post-apartheid. While poverty is growing, there has been little violence and they are largely united around the Democratic Alliance party, which is beginning to challenge ANC dominance. | Middle East & Africa | South Africa |
| 1/11/2014 | -Too many states have mandatory sentences for recidivism which ends up giving non-violent offenders life in prison without parole. America should favor shorter sentences coupled with greater efforts to rehabilitate wrongdoers. Legal fees in addition to fines are also getting out of hand and forcing poor offenders to go to prison when they cannot pay them. | Global | Policing |
| 1/4/2014 | -The number of foreign students studying in the United States has increased 40% over the past decade. The U.S. still has the greatest market share but other countries are catching up. Many U.S. employers would like foreign labor to stay longer as they tend to study needed science skills. Only 9% of Americans study abroad in undergrad and most go to Britain, Italy, Spain and France. | United States | Immigration |
| 1/4/2014 | -New York City has been well-run under Giuliani and Bloomberg for 20 years. Bill de Blasio campaigned on fighting income inequality but NYC needs its top 1%ers to provide 43% of taxes. He should instead focus on school reform allowing more development. | United States | |
| 1/4/2014 | -Abe is pushing to restart Japan’s 50 usable reactors, but the Fukushima cleanup is entering a dangerous phase and public opinion remains against. | Asia | Japan |
| 1/4/2014 | -China’s presence is growing in Antarctica. The Antarctic Treaty maintains the continent as a demilitarized science preserve and bans mining until 2048. | Asia | China |
| 1/4/2014 | -Most African healthcare systems are two-tier, with the rich receiving quality health care while the rest use the dysfunctional state sector. Kenya is beginning to fill the middle with small private hospitals sometimes funded by international investors. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 1/4/2014 | -Shinzo Abe has made progress on monetary policy and government spending but continues to lag on structural reform. These should include the TPP, special economic zones, a policy on rice cultivation, and allowing firms to lay off regular employees more easily. | Asia | Japan |
| 1/4/2014 | -The Saudi government is deporting 9 million foreign workers in an effort to fight unemployment but it has hurt vital services such as water delivery. Many Saudis had become dependent on foreign labor and will feel they are overqualified for those jobs. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 1/4/2014 | -The storm in the Philippines left 2300 dead and cost $15 billion. Aid has remained focused around cities and tourist hubs. Only 34 of 983 local policemen are reported to have shown up for duty after the storm. Vietnam was much better prepared. | Asia | Philippines |
| 1/4/2014 | -Too little inflation risks deflation (increases burden on paying loans, causes people to delay spending). Even ultra-low inflation slows nominal wages growth and makes it more difficult for countries with a single currency to pay off debt. Should raise targets to 4% and loosen financial conditions. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/22/2013 | -The US killed Hakimullah Mehsud in a drone strike. The leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan was behind the Khost bombing and botched Times Square bombing. Pakistanis should celebrate but are upset because it came less than a week after PM Nawaz’s first visit to Washington in which he called for an end to drone strikes. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 12/22/2013 | -Though passed in 2010, the ACA took 2 years to write and the federal government was a chaotic boss for the 55 contractors which worked on the website. Healthcare.gov is a complex system including a website to shop for insurance, a data center to store records, and an interface for insurance companies. The late decision to require a long application before browsing was made by a DHHS deputy and the site was not tested until late September. It is not impossible to fix, but time is running short. | United States | Healthcare |
| 12/22/2013 | -Across Africa, 20% of all members of parliament are women, more than Britain and the United States. This is largely due to quotas, and women still earn 35% less than men. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 12/22/2013 | -At least 70% of processed foods in the US contain genetically modified ingredients. The technology boosts yields, reduces pesticide use, and is a crucial tool in the struggle against global hunger. While safe, there is argument over requiring it to be labeled--a similar experiment in Europe spooked customers. | Science & Technology | |
| 12/22/2013 | -China's 6,200 mile high-speed rail network is already longer than all Europe combined and is being expanded well into the northwest. While these lines are unlikely to make much money, they will help mesh the country together. Tibet may be the only province without a high-speed line. | Asia | China |
| 12/22/2013 | -CIVIL WARS. Since the end of the Cold War, civil wars have been occurring less frequently and ending sooner, but they still spread quickly and are hard to end. Letting the fighting play out tends to destroy the institutions necessary for post-war stable government. What is needed are security guarantees, power-sharing governments, and the acceptance among parties that they will not win. | Global | |
| 12/22/2013 | -Jordan has remained surprisingly stable throughout the Arab Spring. Ordinary Jordanians are relieved they have been kept out of neighboring conflicts, while the political opposition has been split over how to react to those conflicts. | Middle East & Africa | Jordan |
| 12/22/2013 | -Labor’s share of national income has shrunk across the globe as the 99% of workers get a smaller morsel of a smaller slice of a slow-growing pie. Governments should focus on spreading capital gains without hurting business, focusing on growth rather than employment protection. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/22/2013 | -Since Mozambique emerged from a civil war two decades ago, it's income per capita has tripled, it has become a darling of aid donors, and its coal and offshore oil has attracted foreign investment. But Renamo, a group of guerillas which signed a peace accord in 1992, recently declared that peace was over. They have some legitimate support on issues such as electoral reform. | Middle East & Africa | Mozambique |
| 12/22/2013 | -The Russian economy survived many years by pumping state oil revenue into the populace through pensions and such, but that model is beginning to fail as manufacturing and consumption slow. Russians firms are struggling to compete on both quality and price, but the hope is that stagflation could bring about structural reform (red tape, courts, law enforcement, etc) | Europe | Russia |
| 12/15/2013 | -A new book on President George W. Bush indicates he cared about setbacks more than outsiders knew, nearly becoming clinically depressed at some of the worst moments in the Iraq War. It also reveals how by the end of his second term, he and Cheney were opposed on nearly every issue (North Korea, Israel, gun rights, climate change, secret surveillance, car industry bailout, CIA prisons in Syria) | United States | |
| 12/15/2013 | -With $70 billion in outstanding debt, Puerto Rico is a chronically uncompetitive place locked in a currency union with a richer, more productive neighbor. Lessons from Greece tell that austerity alone is no route to solvency. Debt should be restructured sooner rather than later and structural reforms should boost growth. | United States | |
| 12/15/2013 | -After six years, the court trying perpetrators of the killing fields in Cambodia is likely to end up with just three convictions of men now in their 80s. The trial cost $200 million, though some say it is important in coping with the Khmer Rouge era. | Asia | Cambodia |
| 12/15/2013 | -As Iraq suffers its worst bloodshed since the U.S. left, President Maliki wants the US to provide Apache helicopters and Predator drones. What he should do is compromise with Sunnis and Kurds who feel excluded and harassed. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 12/15/2013 | -Brazil finally auctioned off the rights to develop some of its deeply buried ocean-based oil. It should increase output significantly. The government declared the auction a success, although there were much fewer participants than expected and only one offer. | Americas | Brazil |
| 12/15/2013 | -Britain’s plans for a high-speed railway between London and Manchester is overly costly and will not spread growth as they claim. The 42 billion euros is better spent on improving the current system with longer trains and more efficient schedules. | Europe | UK |
| 12/15/2013 | -China’s upcoming party gathering could be the most important since 1978, which laid out the economic modernization. Two areas which need the most reform are the state enterprises (which stifle competition and hog financial resources) and the countryside (which face a crisis in local government funding). Mr. Xi should liberalize interest rates, exchange rates and capital flows, as well as give farmers full rights to their land and housing. The government contains advocates of reform but dividing revenues is contentious. | Asia | China |
| 12/15/2013 | -More U.S. companies are using the “master limited partnership” which combines the limited liability of a corporation, the tax advantages of a partnership, and the governance of a private firm. Finance has always played games to get around rules, but since then crisis regulations have expanded. The rise of these partnerships has raised capital quickly, distributed profits, and breathed life into markets. But they minimize tax payments and are difficult to analyze like normal corporations. Policymakers should drive down the corporate tax rate and reduce the regulatory burden on all firms. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/15/2013 | -The glamorous elder daughter of the leader of Uzbekistan strives to be a glitzy socialite but does little to make herself appear sympathetic. She may be hurting her chances to follow in her father’s footsteps. | Asia | Uzbekistan |
| 12/15/2013 | -The Koreas. SPECIAL REPORT. | Asia | Korea |
| 12/15/2013 | -Unlike Myanmar, Laos never had a western-educated opposition leader to remind outsiders of the nasty nature of the regime. It is increasingly becoming a barren wasteland plagued by deforestation. China and Vietnam have helped double the size of the economy in a decade, but health indicators are still dire. | Asia | Laos |
| 12/8/2013 | -With the growing rape problem in the US military, Congress is trying to take sexual assault cases from the army chain of command and put them in the hands of trained military prosecutors. | United States | Military |
| 12/8/2013 | -After Felipe Calderon’s failed attempt to tackle Mexican violence problem head on, President Pena Nieto has taken the approach of throwing money at violent neighborhoods to encourage peaceful activities. There are a few tangible successes such as a decline in murders, the dismantling of the Zetas, and a stronger chain of command within federal security agencies. But getting violence off the front pages of newspapers doesn’t mean it has disappeared. | Americas | Mexico |
| 12/8/2013 | -Haiti is talking about reviving its army, although some question the purpose of an army in a country without an external threat and with so many people living off $2/day. | Americas | Haiti |
| 12/8/2013 | -Modern science does too much trusting and not enough verifying. The obligation to publish or perish has come to dominate academic life. Careerism also encourages exaggeration and cherry-picking results. Verifications or failures to prove a hypothesis are rarely even offered for publication, let alone accepted. To fix it, scientists should get to grips with statistics, encourage repetition, and register research protocols. | Science & Technology | |
| 12/8/2013 | -Saudi diplomats went from celebrating their selection for a two year membership on the UN Security Council to becoming the first ever country to renounce its seat. It is trying to snub the US over its Israel, Egypt, Iran, and Syria policies. KSA needs friends but the Saud family has always preferred closed-door diplomacy to open forums. | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 12/8/2013 | -The US has historically paid for its roads through a gasoline tax, but this is no longer accurate as the tax fails to keep pace with prices, cars are becoming increasingly fuel efficient, and Americans are driving slightly less than they used to. Utah is experimenting with using GPS signals that track how many miles each car drives and charging them accordingly, but citizens have privacy concerns. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/1/2013 | - President Obama is beginning a tactical shift away from the controversial drone program towards special forces raids. Republicans criticize the drone program for killing jihadists instead of capturing them for intelligence. Drones have always been used sparingly in Somalia because it is not a direct threat to the US, the intelligence is less reliable, and the drones would be at the limits of their range. | United States | Terrorism |
| 12/1/2013 | -The debt ceiling was introduced as a way to make financing WWI easier: before 1917, each new bond issue had to be voted on. Usually, negotiations would end with a generic compromise. But this time around, the radical Republicans are safe with their constituents and some don’t believe defaulting would be a disaster. | United States | |
| 12/1/2013 | -The economic damage of the U.S. government shutdown will be about .1-.2% off the fourth quarter growth rate for every week the government is closed. Budget battles are not uncommon, but blocking funding because of an objection to an existing law is unprecedented. Two concerns: Delaying Obamacare could wreck the entire reform as the public option requires on young people to buy in for funding. Republicans are setting a precedent which would allow a small faction to undermine any future reform. The repercussions of a default on the debt would be global and unpredictable. | United States | |
| 12/1/2013 | -The Texas governor’s race features a Republican who was paralyzed by a falling tree when he was 26 against the pro-choice Democrat Wendy Davis. No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994. | United States | |
| 12/1/2013 | -A Chinese businessman is planning a canal across Nicaragua three times as long as the Panama Canal. But there are numerous environmental, social, economic and legal reasons it will not succeed. | Americas | Nicaragua |
| 12/1/2013 | -Caribbean countries use their UN General Assembly speaking slots to demand reparations from Britain, France, and the Netherlands for the slave trade. But few of history’s great wrongs have been smoothed over with cash. | Americas | Caribbean |
| 12/1/2013 | -Democracy is under attack in the Maldives, where masked men stormed a television studio, the Supreme Court annulled the first round of the Presidential election, and there are growing protests. | Asia | Maldives |
| 12/1/2013 | -Many of Africa’s leaders have ruled too long (has half of the world’s 30 longest leaders). This may change as technology slowly arrives in Africa and people have new platforms to complain. Once admired across Africa and the West, Uganda’s tarnished president seems determined to hang on forever despite being the only decision-maker in government and mishandling the oil industry. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 12/1/2013 | -One of Fidel Castro’s first actions was the nationalization of baseball, leading to players until recently being paid the same $20/month as everyone else. But Fidel’s brother Raul has begun to liberalize the country and announced he would let Cuban athletes compete in foreign leagues as long as they pay taxes and promise to play for their countries when needed. The MLB, however, is unlikely to benefit as the U.S. embargo on Cuba prevents any transaction that would finance the Castro’s government. | Americas | Cuba |
| 12/1/2013 | -Palestinian refugee camps have now existed for as long as 65 years and the UN is getting tired of running them. People in the camps are beginning to fight back. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 12/1/2013 | -Russia is trying to get Ukraine to join its Eurasian Customs Union, arguing that Russia remains the largest market for Ukrainian exports. But Ukraine has more to gain by signing an association agreement with the bigger and richer European Union. It appears to be learning westward—not so much for economic reasons but due to Russian bullying. | Europe | Russia |
| 12/1/2013 | -Since the financial crisis, governments (esp. Russia, India, Brazil) have become choosier about whom they trade with, how much access they grant foreign investors and banks, and what sort of capital they admit. Capital controls make crises less damaging, but hurt competition. Governments have developed new ways to avoid WTO enforcement of free trade. There’s also been an increase in regional free-trade deals, which can boost liberalization but may divert trade rather than expand it. SPECIAL REPORT. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/1/2013 | -The ANC party in South Africa faces a bitter challenger from the new Economic Freedom Fighters on the left. They want to nationalize the mines and hand white farmland to blacks. | Middle East & Africa | South Africa |
| 12/1/2013 | -The British government has tried saving failing towns through “enterprise zones with low taxes, but these towns are doomed and the government would be better to try and help the people move to big cities where there are jobs. | Europe | UK |
| 12/1/2013 | -The Egyptian state apparatus is resorting to its authoritarian habits of the past, with police back on the streets cracking down on dissidents while the government passes laws to tighten its grip. Meanwhile, the profile of General Sisi continues rising. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 12/1/2013 | -The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) is unusually stringent about collecting taxes from American expats overseas (even for several decades) and is causing some to renounce American citizenship. | Business & Economics | |
| 12/1/2013 | -The growth of renewable energy has replaced European utilities with something less reliable and much more expensive. The utilities’ demise is aggravated by an overinvestment in fossil fuels during the 2000s, the Fukushima disaster which panicked governments, and the shale-gas bonanza in America which has lessened demand. Europeans see themselves as pioneers of eco-friendly energy but need to make the system more efficient. | Global | |
| 12/1/2013 | -There are about 60,000 roundabouts in the world, half of which are in France. They allow vehicles to swirl rather than stop at empty crossroads, but they don’t always work when faced with heavy congestion and poor lighting. | Europe | France |
| 11/24/2013 | -Coal miners in the Appalachians are struggling, primarily due to a decreasing demand for coal with the abundance of cheap and clean natural gas. But they blame Obama and the EPA for new carbon emission caps. | United States | |
| 11/24/2013 | -The enrollment and cost of SNAP has increased rapidly. It is primarily due to the downturn and government bailout which made requirements more generous. These are set to expire, but much of the program is left up to the states. Republicans want deeper mandatory cuts, but their proposals will not get far. | United States | |
| 11/24/2013 | -After a tough couple years, David Cameron has three reasons to be happy: the economy is improving, the Labor Party took a sharp turn to the left, and his school/police reforms have worked relatively well. He should use this momentum to reclaim the center of British politics. | Europe | UK |
| 11/24/2013 | -Al Shabab is recruiting more foreign fighters than ever, AQAP was responsible for panic that led to closure of 19 U.S. embassies, and AQ’s core is already preparing for the departure of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Zawahiri still has substantial ideological and some practical influence over the group, which still publishes Inspire. The failures of the Arab Spring have pushed more towards jihad. Syria has revived AQI (as the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham), and has attracted jihadists from Europe and North America. A greater emphasis should be focused on supporting weak governments in Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, Libya, Mali Niger and elsewhere. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 11/24/2013 | -Amid the longest oil boom in history, Venezuela has been one of the worst-performing economies in South America. The government blames scarcities on an “economic war” waged by the United States and its “fascist allies.” President Maduro is caught in a trap left by Chavez: if he sticks to radicals, the economy will worsen while if he doesn’t, he may be labeled a traitor. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 11/24/2013 | -Ecuador’s President Correa offered a deal that he would not drill in a national park if the rest of the world paid $3.6B. When the world spurned this offer, Correa drilled, saying he would use the profits to fight poverty. | Americas | Ecuador |
| 11/24/2013 | -Electronic cigarettes are made up of a small battery which vaporizes a solution containing purified nicotine. While not risk-free, they are safer than traditional smokes and should be considered by European lawmakers. | Other | |
| 11/24/2013 | -Merkel won a big victory but needs a new coalition partner. Her first choice is the Social Democrats but they will demand a high minimum wage and new taxes on the rich. Instead, she should look towards the Greens, who are eager for power after eight years in opposition. | Europe | Germany |
| 11/24/2013 | -New Iranian President Rohani has struck a different note at the UN this year by embracing the prospect of negotiating with America. Obama should force Iran to stop enriching uranium beyond 20%, delay commissioning of the Arak nuclear reactor, and force Iran to sign up to the additional protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 11/24/2013 | -Prized artwork is a positional good—valuable largely because other people can’t have them. The best artists should not make too many paintings or it will devalue their work. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/24/2013 | -Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was prepared for demonstrations in response to recent austerity measures, but an overreaction by his security forces has made the situation worse. | Middle East & Africa | Sudan |
| 11/24/2013 | -The Brazilian economy accelerated under Lula da Silva in the early 2000s and barely stumbled in 2008 recession. But since 2012, growth has nearly halted and due to lack of reform: pensions are overly generous while it spends the lowest portion on infrastructure. Brazil must also reform politically and make its businesses more competitive by removing protections. SPECIAL REPORT. | Americas | Brazil |
| 11/24/2013 | -While the West’s leaders are off the hook, the only reason the current Russian-led agreement on Syria looks good is because of the mess Obama got himself into. The deal itself is flimsy and hard to enforce. America’s credibility as an ally has been undermined—Russians stand firm behind Assad while American support for rebels (now largely AQ) wavers. America’s credibility as an opponent suffers as red lines are no longer significant—Obama deferred to Congress. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 11/17/2013 | -The feds have traditionally cracked down hard on enforcing marijuana regulations but the DOJ has decided not to block experiments in Colorado and Washington—at least for now. It has reminded states to focus on eight priorities including keeping drugs away from children and borders. | United States | Drugs |
| 11/17/2013 | -America’s income equality is growing again: 95% of the gains from the recovery have gone to the richest 1%. Few politicians offer constructive ways to fight this: Democrats turn to a higher minimum wage or another rise in tax rates on the rich while too many Republicans deny it is a problem. Solution: fix tax loopholes on affluent (e.g. mortgage interest deduction, a huge subsidy for those who buy big houses), deregulation of industries like doctors and lawyers. Investment should go to preschool to help disadvantaged children. | United States | |
| 11/17/2013 | -While the total number of gun-related murders is in decline, the number of high-profile killings has jumped, lending more attention to gun violence. | United States | |
| 11/17/2013 | -A struggle between the unpopular Taiwanese president and the heavyweight in his ruling party led to the release of phone recordings which threaten to derail an agreement signed in June with China over the liberalization of cross-strait trade and investment in services. | Asia | China |
| 11/17/2013 | -Chinese investment in Africa has gone from almost nothing 20 years ago to around $200 billion last year. As China’s economy slows, its priorities are shifting from resource-heavy capital spending to a more refined consumer-led sort of growth. But slowing demand for raw materials will not derail African economies because most of the projects are already underway. | Asia | China |
| 11/17/2013 | -French schools are abandoning the four-day school week in an effort to shorten children’s days, but parents are complaining: “How am I supposed to tell my child he can’t watch cartoons on Thursday nights?” | Europe | France |
| 11/17/2013 | -In 2009, only 3 of the top 10 firms by market value were American. Today, it is back up to 9. Reasons: America’s mix of resilience and dynamism, Europe’s poor performance, and the collapse of state-controlled firms (e.g. Gazprom). Still, not all countries need giant firms to be successful—Germany’s strength is in its medium-sized firms. Part of these firms’ success is their global expansion (esp. Google). | Other | |
| 11/17/2013 | -SPECIAL REPORT: Over the past few centuries, the number of extinctions is estimated to be around 100 times the rate it would be if not for mankind. But when people start to reach middle-income level, other species benefit for several reasons: environmental groups pressure government, people clean up their environments in other ways (e.g. sewage-treatment plants), agricultural yields rise, and population growth rates fall. | Science & Technology | |
| 11/10/2013 | -Teach for America has been criticized in that placing inexperienced young people in front of “marginalized students” only serves to perpetuate the status quo of inequity. But TFA recruits with care and studies show they tend to excel, especially at math. | United States | Education |
| 11/10/2013 | -The quadrennial AFL-CIO convention highlights union membership falling from 33% in the 1950s to 11% today, mostly due to globalization, growth of service sector, and toughening anti-union policies. But groups are beginning to organize workers outside traditional collective-bargaining models in “alt-labor” groups such as low-paying or ethnic-minority lobby groups. | United States | |
| 11/10/2013 | -Africa’s last monarch, the King of Swaziland proclaimed he had a dream and called for elections to its two legislative houses. Swaziland is kept afloat by the SACU and $200 million received from Taiwan each year in return for saying nice things and staying out of China’s circle of African allies. | Asia | China |
| 11/10/2013 | -Brazil is safer than it has been for many years, but Rio de Janeiro governor Sergio Cabral is unpopular for corruption and dimming results of his security program. The program involves taking back territory rather than confronting gangs head-on. Then permanent police stations called UPPs are set up to patrol around the clock. Officers are now paid bonuses for killing fewer people as opposed to more. But the poorest areas are having to wait longer for UPPs. | Americas | Brazil |
| 11/10/2013 | -China’s President Xi Jinping swept through central Asia gobbling up energy deals and promising billions in investment. It showed that Russia’s regional dominance is gone, yet Russia and China have incentives to be friends. | Asia | China |
| 11/10/2013 | -Chinese students rarely question teachers, but there has been an increase in debates aiming to develop critical thinking, spontaneity and public speaking skills. Still, politically-sensitive topics are banned. | Asia | China |
| 11/10/2013 | -In India, as elsewhere in Asia, attacks on women are often ignored. Proper sex education is almost entirely absent in schools. Millions of female fetuses are aborted or young girls die. India’s courts should prosecute far more doctors and parents for sex-selective abortions and clamp down on dowries. | Asia | India |
| 11/10/2013 | -Saudi rulers are beginning to regain influence in the Middle East. Post-uprising messes in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen have dampened the enthusiasm for revolution. The toppling of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt also helped. Finally, in Syria, Saudi-arms provided to rebels are grinding down Assad’s war machine (not anymore…) | Middle East & Africa | Saudi Arabia |
| 11/10/2013 | -The Quebec government banned the display of conspicuous religious symbols to eliminate headscarves and turbans but made an exception for items of cultural heritage such as the Catholic cross that hangs above their legislature. It is unclear whether long beards or skull caps will be allowed. | Americas | Canada |
| 11/3/2013 | -The 1996 welfare reform was successful; but many argue it has become too generous again. A single mother can get about $33K/year in welfare and other government support--one woman used it to get a degree and now says she would rather stay on welfare than get a job she considers below her education level. | United States | |
| 11/3/2013 | -The stereotype that burger-flipping is how teens earn pocket money is no longer true; half of fast food workers are older than 23. Trade unions are teaming with protesters demanding an increased minimum wage. | United States | |
| 11/3/2013 | -A Brazilian network claim they found an NSA slideshow with text messages sent from Pena Nieto to Brazilian President Rousseff, causing Rousseff to cancel her visit to the US. | Americas | Brazil |
| 11/3/2013 | -Argument for bombing Syria: Assad is testing our capacity to impose our will. Need to protect credibility and re-establish deterrence. Being world policeman allows America to shape rules according to its own interests and tastes and help rebuild America's moral authority in the world. Obama’s decision to get Congressional approval was ill-advised for weakening his office and exposing deep divisions within both parties | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 11/3/2013 | -Global finance is safer but there are more crises on the horizon. America was able to get rid of the excess debt and fixed its financial sector, but Europe is still dangerous. Red flags for future disasters are debt surges, ill-understood interconnections, and uncertainty about government safety nets. | Business & Economics | |
| 11/3/2013 | -Laos is building a $3.5 billion dam on the Mekong to generate electricity. It threatens to eliminate the giant catfish but there is little that the Mekong River Commission can do about it. | Asia | Laos |
| 11/3/2013 | -Tajikistan is more dependent on remittances than any other country in world. Russia is trying to take advantage of its influence by getting its neighbors to join the Eurasian Union, modeled on the European Union. But integration will be limited by the poor governments in central Asian states and xenophobia. | Asia | Tajikistan |
| 11/3/2013 | -The usually inept Indian intelligence system has had a good few weeks, arresting the commander of a Kashmir militant group, a LeT bomb maker, and another operational head of a home-grown militant group. | Asia | India |
| 11/3/2013 | -Ubiquitous data services might make cities more liveable, efficient, sustainable, or democratic. But risks include privacy concerns and vulnerability to hackers. Top-down school of thought proposes citywide planning and control, while bottom-up advocates providing access to data that lets citizens make own decisions. Rio de Janeiro has 400 CCTV cameras to help them manage crowds during the World Cup. Outside of traffic, few apps have made the jump from interesting novelty to reliable customer service. Moreover, most cities lack the necessary resources for the ambitious dreams of city planners. | Science & Technology | |
| 10/27/2013 | -Colorado has become a vanguard for liberals: passing several new gun restriction laws, bills to allow gay civil unions, require more use of renewable energy, lower tuition fees for illegal immigrants, allow voters to register on polling day. They’ve also grappled with abolishing the death penalty and efforts to legalize marijuana. | United States | |
| 10/27/2013 | -In Utah, every sector is growing except government. The business-friendly state has lowered taxes and has the fifth lowest unemployment in the country. Still, low revenues and high birth rates have led to problems in primary education. | United States | |
| 10/27/2013 | -Larry Summers would be a cleverer Fed Chairman with more experience in economic crises. But Janet Yellen is a safer choice given her low profile she is less likely to make unsettling comments that could spook markets. | United States | Politics |
| 10/27/2013 | -After downing Bo Xilai, Chinese President Xi Jinping also accused another political enemy, Jiang Jiemin, of corruption. His next target will likely be longtime rival Zhou Yongkang. The optimistic interpretation is that Xi is not just consolidating his own power but also restoring political unity, which may free him to pursue difficult but much needed economic reforms. | Asia | China |
| 10/27/2013 | -After nine months of talks between the FARC and Colombian government, the guerillas are closer to peace than ever before. A huge security buildup over the past decade has reduced the FARC from around 18,000 fighters to 10,000 today and killed three of their senior leaders. Negotiators are still working out FARC participation in politics, reparation for victims, and punishment of guerillas. In the end, striking the balance between peace and justice may be the trickiest point of all. | Americas | Colombia |
| 10/27/2013 | -Egypt’s ruling generals, fearing allies of the Islamic Brotherhood, have demolished connections with the Gaza Strip and closed the hundreds of tunnels. This has cut off about half of Hamas’ revenue. Its key sponsors—Syria, Iran, and Egypt under the Brotherhood—have fallen away. Its smaller Islamist rival, Islamic Jihad, skirmishes for control of certain mosques. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 10/27/2013 | -Kenyan President Kenyatta stands on trial in the ICC accused of pitting communities against each other in campaigns of ethnic cleansing and murder in early 2008. If convicted, he will face a long prison sentence, but the trials may last several years and will certainly distract from his ability to govern the state. | Middle East & Africa | Kenya |
| 10/27/2013 | -Obama really should have intervened in Syria a year ago to knock out Assad while he was down. Now the best course of action is limited but punishing strikes against his command and control centers to send a message about the use of chemical weapons. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 10/27/2013 | -On first site, China’s big four banks seem stable, but China should end financial repression, separate banking from crony state capitalism, and welcome more competition from home and abroad. | Asia | China |
| 10/27/2013 | -Putin has made anti-Western rhetoric the theme of his third Presidency. The West should respond: border countries should join the EU (not Eurasian Customs Union), Russia should lose its privileged NATO status, and Russia should be marginalized and banned from other international organizations. The world still remains dependent on Russia’s energy resources, but less so. | Europe | Russia |
| 10/20/2013 | -Thanks to the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, race relations in the US are much better than they used to be—15% of marriages cross racial lines, all-white neighborhoods are nearly extinct. Still, black median household income is falling relative to white income. By the age of 30, one in ten black males are in jail (for whites it is one in 61). While some attribute this to lingering racism, others attribute it to cultural differences (Americans who finish high school, work full-time and wait until 21 to be married have a 2% chance of being poor). The best government policies would be reform of prisons (too harsh) and schools (can’t just throw money at them). | United States | Race |
| 10/20/2013 | -Before the financial crisis central bankers only had to adjust short-term interest rates to influence growth and inflation. After the crash, even pulling rates down to 0% failed to stimulate the economies, so central banks have tried two new policies: buying assets like long-term bonds to push down long-term interest rates, and “forward guidance,” a promise to keep short-term interest rates low until specific targets (e.g. low unemployment) are met. They should do a better job of sacrificing flexibility for credibility. | Business & Economics | |
| 10/20/2013 | -Fear and hunger threaten to overwhelm the Central African Republic. The government is far from re-imposing even a modicum of law and order, let alone a democracy. The UN intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo is trying to push the M23 rebel group away from the city of Goma, but there is disagreement whether the 3,000 person brigade should be used as a carrot or a stick to promote peace. | Middle East & Africa | Central African Republic |
| 10/20/2013 | -The British public is largely opposed to fracking, which has transformed America’s energy market and helped the country out of recession. Environmental complaints are weak. Disturbance complaints (e.g. unruly workers) are a problem but a decentralized tax system would allow benefits for counties which accept workers. | Global | |
| 10/20/2013 | -The five day trial of Bo Xilai was surprising public—censored transcripts were released to the public. But more surprising was his robust defense against charges of corruption, extravagance, and covering up a murder. | Asia | China |
| 10/20/2013 | -The West should intervene in Syria for three reasons: chemical weapons are banned by international agreement, there are limits to the atrocities government may perpetrate on citizens, and America’s credibility depends on it. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 10/20/2013 | -While India was recently touted as an economic miracle, the rupee has tumbled by 13% in three months. Jumpy officials responded by tightening capital controls to keep money in the country, which only scared more investors away. During the 2003-2008 boom, the government failed to liberalize the economy. Rather than micromanaging the rupee, should get government finances in order, and repair banks. | Asia | India |
| 10/13/2013 | -Federal prisons today house nearly 40% more inmates than they were designed for. Eric Holder announced a new plan to release elderly inmates early, help ex-convicts re-enter society, and eliminate mandatory minimums on low-level nonviolent drug offenders. He should go even further, consider legalizing drugs or at least make more use of cheap, effective alternative to prison, such as electronic tagging. Lawmakers should scrap mandatory minimums; shorter sentences deter nearly as much as longer ones and cost far less. | United States | Policing |
| 10/13/2013 | -The ACA requires firms with 50+ FTEs to offer them affordable health insurance. Right now 57% of employers offer health insurance, which can cause workers to stay in bad jobs which offer it and may depress hiring. ACA’s taxes may cause employers to make employees pay more of their health costs or kill jobs/hours. Still, the White House maintains it will allow greater freedom of movement and reward efficient healthcare. | United States | Healthcare |
| 10/13/2013 | -China traditionally harvested the organs of condemned prisoners for use in transplant operations. But as executions have fallen, it is struggling to meet the tremendous demand. | Asia | China |
| 10/13/2013 | -Germans are beginning to move away from the two people’s parties (SPD and CDU) and towards more central parties. CDU/CSU has been moving towards the left to catch more vote, and Merkel has stolen the Green Party’s thunder by pledging to phase out nuclear power plants by 2022. | Europe | Germany |
| 10/13/2013 | -India passed a new food law to give each of India’s people a monthly serving of rice or wheat at a nominal price. It should help nutrition but is badly targeted and will not help the massive theft and waste problem. | Asia | India |
| 10/13/2013 | -The Egyptian generals’ killing of 464 protesters is a reckless denial of lessons from the Arab Spring. A central demand of the protesters who led the country’s February 2011 revolution against Mubarak was that state of emergency laws be suspended, but they are back. Islamist mobs, fearing that factions of the armed forces want to purge Islamism from the country, have clashed with everyone including ordinary citizens and Christians. The Brotherhood, with a share around 30%, will need to play a role in the new government rather than returning to being entirely excluded from national life. Other countries should incentivize democracy by punishing the government for violence against its citizens in order to prevent a full counter-revolution. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 10/13/2013 | -The global economy is beginning to rebound, but institutions are still largely broken. The one exception may be America, where the main damage of budget cuts and tax increases have passed and monetary policy has become more predictable. The housing recovery is built on solid foundations, consumer debt has plunged, banks are keen to lend, and there will be a supply-side boost of shale gas. | Global | |
| 10/13/2013 | -The Haitian government has sought to ban the import of poultry and eggs, one of several new measures designed to stimulate domestic manufacturing through import substitution. | Americas | Haiti |
| 10/13/2013 | -The mysterious leader of Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau was announced wounded or dead for a fifth time. | Middle East & Africa | Nigeria |
| 10/5/2013 | -36% of Americans aged 18 to 31 live with their parents, the largest since 1968. 16% of 16 to 24 year olds are unemployed. Only 25% of 18 to 31 year olds have spouses. | Other | |
| 10/5/2013 | -After decades of building developments on the West Bank, Israelis may be moving their focus south to the less crowded Negev desert. Western governments have long encouraged this to minimize conflict with Palestine. But there are still 200,000 Arabs living there, most of them Bedouin. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 10/5/2013 | -America’s national parks are struggling to maintain a trend of growth in attendance. Two reasons: other electronic forms of entertainment and demographic shift towards minorities who have no cultural connections to historical sites. | Other | |
| 10/5/2013 | -Fierce competition among companies offering DC to NY Chinatown bus services led to “bus wars” in 2004 in which coaches were torched, divers were assaulted, and a few people were murdered. While a cheap form of transportation, several smaller companies were shut down last year for safety concerns. | Asia | China |
| 10/5/2013 | -In the same week India built its first nuclear powered submarine and aircraft carrier, an explosion on a submarine killed 18 sailors. India’s navy is generally far behind China’s in overall size and capability, but it is actually ahead when it comes to operating carriers. | Asia | India |
| 10/5/2013 | -North African governments are struggling to stem the illegal flow of arms and drugs. There is also a growing problem of addiction to heroin in poor parts of Iran which comes over the Afghan border. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 10/5/2013 | -Recent violence have challenged India-Pakistani relations. Still India should want to normalize ties while there is a civilian leader in Pakistan and to expand its economic access to compete with China central Asia. Better relations would also help Pakistan’s economy. Both sides should avoid the sensitive issue of Kashmir. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 10/5/2013 | -Sophisticated data firms are tracking every movement in English Premiere League soccer to discover the best way to win. Until recently, scouting talent had been very old-fashioned. | Other | Sports |
| 9/28/2013 | -The US picked up some intelligence to suggest an imminent attack and closed 19 embassies. This could be considered overreaction for three reasons: 1) AQ receives information on intelligence surveillance 2) plotters may still have a plan B 3) it contradicts previous claims that AQ was weakened to the brink of defeat. | United States | |
| 9/28/2013 | -After nearly six years of trying to improve relations with Russia, Obama’s patience is growing thin. This was evidenced by Obama’s decision to cancel a Moscow summit with his Russian counterpart. | Europe | Russia |
| 9/28/2013 | -Berlusconi was finally convicted by Italy’s highest court for tax evasion. The President, Giorgio Napolitano, has wisely beaten back talk of a pardon. He should leave the national stage in order to give Italians renewed faith in politics. But it also risks bringing down the government, which relies on the cotes of the People of Freedom (PdL) Movement. | Europe | Italy |
| 9/28/2013 | -In January 2013, the air of Beijing hit toxicity 40 times what the World Health Organization deems safe. China is dealing with the protests through suppression (jailing environmentalists) and mitigation (pouring money into cleaning up the country). All countries should agree to join China in cleaning up the air. | Asia | China |
| 9/28/2013 | -Israel’s armed forces are shifting emphasis from mechanized warfare toward air and cyber power. Troops are being consolidated into four major bases and new troops are being prodded towards professionalization over a manpower-intensive body. New threats are emerging and the voters want a less militarized, more normal country. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 9/28/2013 | -Japan launched its biggest warship since WWII, which is called a battleship but could be used to launch fixed-wing aircraft. Japan and China are struggling to get negotiations going regarding the disputed Senkaku Islands. | Asia | China |
| 9/28/2013 | -Latin Americans spend an estimated ten hours per month on social media networks, twice as much as the global average. As a result, Latin American presidents have taken to tweeting with gusto. | Americas | |
| 9/28/2013 | -Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela has pledged to fight the rampant corruption in Venezuela, but has made little progress. In one case, a military investigation revealed an astonishing $1.2 billion in kickbacks for sales of ore. The corruption reached some of the highest ranks of Chavez’s government. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 9/28/2013 | -Sick of trying to keep up with drugmakers, the government of New Zealand is offering them a chance to get official approval for their products. If they can persuade a board their drugs are low risk they will be approved. | Asia | New Zealand |
| 9/28/2013 | -The National Baseball Hall of Fame evokes nostalgia for a time that never really existed. This year, for the first time since 1965, no living players were enshrined in the Hall. This damaged the Cooperstown economy. When Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn were honored in 2007, nearly 25,000 people came, compared to around 2,500 this year. | Other | Sports |
| 9/28/2013 | -While there used to be a lot of traffic in and out of Gibraltar, the police have made it slower and more expensive to get out due to a spat between the British and Spanish. | Europe | Spain |
| 9/21/2013 | -Both Manning and Snowden unquestionably broke the law and US intelligence agencies cannot function if their employees squawk. Manning’s public interest defense is especially thin since he leaked hundreds of thousands of documents without regard for what harm or good they would do. Still, unless FISA court is open to challenge from the public, it risks becoming the creature of the executive. Also the disproportionately harsh treatment of Manning is unsettling. Public opinion may finally be shifting against giving up civil liberties in the interest of national security. | United States | |
| 9/21/2013 | -Many seriously mentally ill people in America rotate in and out of correctional facilities until they die. People are only put in mental-health institutions if they are a danger to themselves or others. This can lead to costs of nearly a million dollars per person. | United States | |
| 9/21/2013 | -A planned road connecting Bangkok, Thailand to Dawei, Myanmar would increase GDP by up to 2% but the jungle is dense and Japanese financiers are backing out. | Asia | Japan |
| 9/21/2013 | -Egypt’s top general, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is being compared to Gamal Abdul Nasser, the hero-general who eventually became president. While the generals initially pledged to stay out of politics, this changed once the Muslim Brotherhood grabbed power. Still the generals remain remarkably popular. Sisi’s politics are a mixture of nationalism and Islam. The Egyptian generals look to Pakistan for inspiration, but they are not even equipped for basic counterinsurgency. | Middle East & Africa | Egypt |
| 9/21/2013 | -Last year, China is thought to have executed around 3,000 people, or roughly four times the rest of the world put together. Still, the global decline in executions is largely due to decreases in China’s rigid criminal justice system. | Asia | China |
| 9/21/2013 | -On the criteria of democracy and human rights, Cambodia and Vietnam are not much different, but the US is more open to Vietnam because it sees it as an ally in America’s security “pivot” to Asia and a potential TPP member. | Asia | Vietnam |
| 9/21/2013 | -The Salang tunnel in Afghanistan is in bad need of a $1 billion repair, but it is unclear who will do. The concept of getting the private sector to fund, construct and operate a road in so new to Afghanistan that government officials needed it explained to them. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 9/21/2013 | -Uruguay became the first country in the world to legalize marijuana. | Americas | Uruguay |
| 9/21/2013 | -While experts talk of peak oil, demand for oil could actually flatten out or even decline. Fracking and increases in unconventional gas will replace oil in cars and ships, while advances in engine and vehicle design will lead to more efficient machines. Price (and thus demand) also depends how much Aramco produces. The geopolitical impact could undermine Vladimir Putin’s kleptocracy. In the 1990s, the “seven sisters” (BP, Esso, Gulf Oil, Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, SoCal, Texaco) controlled 85% of global reserves; today, over 90% is controlled by national oil companies. Remaining oil is hard to get at due because it is buried deep, mixed with other chemicals, or located in politically unstable countries. National companies are even starting to outspend the seven sisters on R&D in areas like deep sea oil. The seven sisters overlooked good spots like East Africa in favor of places like the Arctic. | Business & Economics | |
| 9/14/2013 | -Detroit, the largest city yet to file for bankruptcy, is symbolic of a number of American cities with tremendous liabilities stemming promised pensions and health care to workers. It is estimated that the total pension gap for states is around 17% of GDP. It is worst in Illinois, where the deficit is beginning to discourage business. It is exacerbated by Americans living longer and politicians offering fat pensions to win votes. The answer may lie in later retirements and a shift to defined contribution plans. | United States | |
| 9/14/2013 | -Until the 1990s, the US economy had among the strongest growth rate in the world. The past two decades featured tremendous growth in the BRIC countries built on a huge jump in merchandise exports. But the BRIC economies are beginning to slow down. China seems the most committed to reforming into a better-balanced consumption-based economy. While this is not the beginning of another bust, it means the world economy is unlikely to grow much faster than today’s lackluster pace of 3%. Goldman Sachs touts a list of “Next 11” countries including Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, and Turkey, but these countries are smaller, already somewhat rich, and the world economy is larger. | United States | |
| 9/14/2013 | -A new law in Somalia that forces journalists to reveal their sources was implemented to try to stamp out sloppy practices, but has led to six violent journalist deaths. | Middle East & Africa | Somalia |
| 9/14/2013 | -Al-Qaeda maintains a strong presence in Marib, a few hours east of Sanaa, Yemen. The city is troubled by a lack of basic services and lingering disputes over precious arable land. While it has modest oil and gas income, the surge of drone strikes in 2012 may be worsening the problem by spreading fear and recruiting other young men to the jihadist cause. | Middle East & Africa | Yemen |
| 9/14/2013 | -Argentina, whose energy industry is struggling, recently nationalized the YPF oil company. YPF signed a joint venture with Chevron to explore the Dead Cow field which is estimated to hold 16 billion barrels of shale oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of shale gas. | Americas | Argentina |
| 9/14/2013 | -Fueled by a dangerous brew of faith, ethnicity, and politics, Buddhism and Islam are fueling an escalating conflict in countries like Myanmar, Sri Lanka, India, and Indonesia. | Asia | |
| 9/14/2013 | -Hamas, which Israel and the United States label a terrorist group, is notably absent from the Middle East Peace talks, though the US has gradually recognized there are other actors at play. Hamas leaders have been feeling glum since the Islamist Morsi was overthrown last month. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 9/14/2013 | -Obesity is becoming a bigger problem in Latin America, where Peru has the highest density of fast food restaurants in the world. Several countries are considering regulations on school lunches and taxes on sodas. | Americas | Peru |
| 9/14/2013 | -Tajikistan is hoping to build the world’s tallest hydropower dam and sell electricity to Afghanistan and South Asia. Two obstacles remain: the investment climate is clouded by corruption with profits often routed to the Virgin Islands, and Uzbekistan things the dam would parch its cotton crop and is blocking the deal. Even if the dam was built, more infrastructure would be needed to get the electricity out of Tajikistan. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 9/14/2013 | -While some thought Tunisia could be the last chance for a successful Arab Spring revolt, a second assassination of a liberal political movement sets the country on the edge. | Middle East & Africa | Tunisia |
| 9/7/2013 | -A toxic mix of Islamism, joblessness and grievance can ignite violence in the heavily immigrant parts of France. The most recent violence stemmed from an officer who asked a woman to remove her face covering. | Europe | France |
| 9/7/2013 | -Cycling and sprinting have both been devastated by doping allegations. The only real way to clean it up is through frequent and ubiquitous testing, though the leagues want to avoid the bad PR. | Other | Sports |
| 9/7/2013 | -Obama and Karzai are on sour terms after a snafu regarding Taliban talks in Qatar, but they cannot let this derail negotiations on the bilateral security agreement to keep around 30,000 badly needed ISAF troops beyond the exit. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 9/7/2013 | -Queen Elizabeth has held the crown for too long. When she turns 90 in 2016, she will have beaten the previous record-holder (Queen Victoria, 63 years). She should bow out. Prince Charles should at 80, Prince William at 70. Otherwise George Alexander Louis will never make it to the throne. | Europe | UK |
| 9/7/2013 | -Two days after being sentenced to five years in jail, Alexei Navalny was released pending an appeal and allowed to run for mayor of Moscow. The Kremlin’s erratic behavior is a sign of a growing split within the ruling Russian elite between a powerful faction comprising former and present security servicemen (wanted Navalny in jail), and civilians in the presidential entourage (wanted Navalny freed). | Europe | Russia |
| 8/31/2013 | -Although most Indians have mobile phones, there is a major scarcity of electricity. While the state has proved incapable of providing power, aid donors are rushing to develop grid power using solar panels. | Asia | India |
| 8/31/2013 | -Brazil will welcome the new Pope from Argentina but the Catholic church’s image is in trouble. It failed to confront the pedophile priests and its teachings on birth control are largely ignored. There is also some uncertainty on who should pay for the $142 million visit, as ticketing has failed to cover the tab. | Americas | Argentina |
| 8/31/2013 | -Cuba has traditionally relied on Venezuela for 40% of its foreign exchange but is increasingly trading with China, Brazil and Angola. The US should lift its embargo to help the capitalist transition. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 8/31/2013 | -Mexico arrested Miguel Angel Trevino Morales, the leader of the Zetas. Unlike the previous administration, the arrest was not touted as much but it is highly significant for legitimizing Pena Nieto’s efforts against violence. | Americas | Mexico |
| 8/31/2013 | -Mississippi and Alabama became the last two states to legalize crafting your own beers. The economic rationale is that while many start out of hobby, they end up setting up their own shops. | Other | |
| 8/31/2013 | -The Syrian Islamic Front has emerged as the most powerful outfit battling Assad. It does not identify with the Western favorite Free Syria Army nor the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. It wants a Sunni-led Islamic state but emphasized that its campaign is for Syria, not global jihad. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 8/31/2013 | -The Walmart-DC battle over living wages has precedent. The chain was accepted in Chicago and created numerous jobs, while it has yet to reach New York. The stores would create jobs and benefit the poor. | Other | |
| 8/31/2013 | -While poverty is typically associated with urban communities, suburban poverty has been on the rise since the recession. Suburbs have the added difficulty of a lack of transportation, though they have good jobs and schools. | Global | |
| 8/24/2013 | -FISA court, with minimal oversight, has almost become a parallel Supreme Court. It appears partisan, as 12 of the 14 judges who served in 2013 are Republican. | United States | |
| 8/24/2013 | -The Baucus-Camp tax proposal is not perfect—the sponsors disagree about the need to raise more revenue. Still, Obama should pass it quickly to reform an inefficient and complex tax code. The loopholes often discourage work and investment and the US tax code has increased from 16,500 to over 72,000 since 1969. Its 35% corporate tax rate is among the highest in the world. | United States | |
| 8/24/2013 | -Europe’s financial system remains in terrible shape, It should unclog lending channels, confirm the quality of bank assets, and impose additional requirements on bankrupt governments. | Europe | |
| 8/24/2013 | -For Islamists, government has proved much harder than opposition. While the sectarian divides are old, wounds were reopened by the US invasion of Iraq and overthrow of Saddam. The arrival of al-Qaeda supported the Wahhabist sect and Bashar al-Assad represents the Alawites. The Kurds also play a role. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 8/24/2013 | -Once again, a fragile Greek government has pushed delayed reforms through parliament at the behest of the European Union and the IMF even as angry protesters in the square outside demand its resignation. At stake was a 6.8 million euro bailout. | Europe | Greece |
| 8/24/2013 | -Russian opposition leader activist Alexi Navalny was found guilty of stealing timber and sentenced to five years. Most relevant, it means he cannot run for elections. | Europe | Russia |
| 8/24/2013 | -Southeastern Myanmar is one of the most landmine-ridden areas of the globe. A failure to eradicate them threatens efforts at peace. Syria and Myanmar are the only two countries still producing landmines since a 1997 ban treaty. | Asia | Myanmar |
| 8/24/2013 | -The Arab Spring was always better described as an awakening. Dictatorships take a long time to replace but all hope is not lost. In breathtakingly short order, dictatorships collapsed in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. It seemed the “Arab exception” (to democracy) had been overcome. But several attempts at democratically-elected Islamists have brought a new wave of pessimism. But a long view of history demonstrates that these transitions are rarely smooth. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 8/24/2013 | -The practice of giving useless and inappropriate gifts to leaders on official visits ought to be canned. Kim Jong Il mocked gifts he received and keeps them in a museum in Pyongyang. | Asia | Korea |
| 8/24/2013 | -Until the mid-1980s, most Arab countries performed as well as the rest of the world, but this success rested on windfall oil revenues. Several dictatorships mostly embraced free markets, but oil revenue and corrupt spending has kept even educated populations living on an average of $2.75/day. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 8/24/2013 | -While Italy’s economy remains as dire as ever, Prime Minister Enrico Letta has focused his energies on a constitutional reform to change a system in which both houses of parliament wield equal power which leads to gridlock. | Europe | Italy |
| 8/17/2013 | -The sequester will result in across the board cuts throughout the Pentagon. While America will remain the world’s pre-eminent military power, it will take a major hit. Reform will be difficult, as Congress hates closing bases or laying off military personnel. | United States | Military |
| 8/17/2013 | -While harping on taller fences and increased security on the border will help a few Congressmen appeal to their constituents, passing immigration reform would be more beneficial to the country and the future of the GOP. | United States | Immigration |
| 8/17/2013 | -A long-standing unfairness in the electoral system in Japan that favors low-populated rural areas has proved difficult to change as politicians prefer the system that gets them elected. It also undermines Prime Minister Abe’s promised economic reforms. | Asia | Japan |
| 8/17/2013 | -Europe shouldn’t be so upset at the US for its spying given that it does the same, it relies on the US security umbrella, and it has the most to gain from a transatlantic trade deal. | Europe | |
| 8/17/2013 | -It will be very difficult to get American arms to selected Syrian rebels, and brings back bad memories of arming the mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 8/17/2013 | -Several countries such as Thailand and Vietnam are beginning to embrace gay marriage. Still, neighboring Malaysia has a Muslim majority which has outlawed homosexuality. | Asia | |
| 8/17/2013 | -The Muslim Brotherhood believes that politics are subsidiary to religion and are downright hostile to women and minorities. Still, Morsi won 52% of the vote—more than Obama. But his rule began unraveling June 30th as a huge portion of the country protested his incompetence. He did nothing to rescue the economy from looming collapse picked a narrow-minded government, and failed to implement reforms creating independent intuitions in government. It now falls on the military to get the country back on the road to recovery. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 8/17/2013 | -The welfare states pioneered in Europe and America are not universally admired in Asia, which has tended to rely instead on youthful populations, bountiful growth, and dutiful families. | Global | |
| 8/17/2013 | -Trade negotiations between America and the European Union are set to finish by November 2014, but they will not be smooth given entrenched sensitivities. Europeans are prickly about American agricultural practices, such as genetically modified foods. Americans will cling to domestic carve outs for domestic shipping and transport firms. | Europe | |
| 8/17/2013 | -While more Arabs are being educated, the quality of the education is questionable and mostly focused on religion. Women tend to be better educated and underrepresented in the workforce. Marriage is a prerequisite for sex, and owning a house is a prerequisite for marriage. The new generation of Arabs has to work harder and longer than their parents to afford their own houses. Many young people are starting their own businesses in defiance of the government. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 8/10/2013 | -Obama is only the latest U.S. President to propose further cutting nuclear weapon levels, but other nuclear powers are skeptical of his “plot to take over the world with conventional weapons.” | United States | Military |
| 8/10/2013 | -In order to approve the immigration bill with the path to citizenship, Republicans want to spend more than $4.5 billion on border security through drones and fences. But the economic downturn has drastically slowed immigration and measures seem to indicate better enforcement in recent years. | United States | Immigration |
| 8/10/2013 | -A global wave of protests have different origins, but all come from contempt for government. Brazil: bus fares, Turkey: building project, Indonesia: fuel prices, Bulgaria: cronyism, Arab Spring: everything. But just as in 1848, 1968, and 1989, the protesters have risen with bewildering speed (social media), been more active in democracies than dictatorships, and tend to be middle class people. | Global | |
| 8/10/2013 | -After Croatia’s accession into the EU, Europe should be ready to admit more members. Enlargement has been the EU’s most successful policy by incentivizing countries to further democratize and stabilize their economies. Europe would do better with hopeful neighbors that aspire to its standards than grumpy ones that feel rejected. | Europe | Croatia |
| 8/10/2013 | -Brazil’s government has appeased protesters by offering political reform against corruption and more social spending. Still, the plan seemed rushed and citizens are still upset about the stadium projects which were budgeted at $1.1 billion but have already cost over $3 billion. | Americas | Brazil |
| 8/10/2013 | -China finds itself in a financial crunch similar to the one in the United States in 2008. Credit is rising faster than GDP and property booms have been accompanied by increased lending. Still, China has a much higher savings rate and the banks are better regulated (or owned by the government). | Asia | China |
| 8/10/2013 | -In a zero interest rate economy, Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve can influence money markets more through words than actions. If inflation remains uncomfortably low or growth proves weak, the central bank could continue to buy bonds but this might lead to further instability down the road. | Business & Economics | |
| 8/10/2013 | -Pakistan should try Pervez Musharraf for treason for his coup and complicity in the killings of separatist leaders and Benazir Bhutto, even if it risks becoming a distraction and damaging relations with the military. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 8/10/2013 | -The African National Congress, once the pride and joy of Nelson Mandela, is floundering. Corruption is pervasive, unemployment is at 37%, rape is common, public hospitals are terrible, and land reform has failed to materialize. | Middle East & Africa | South Africa |
| 8/10/2013 | -The long-overdue revolution in using computers for education is gaining key support and traction in the United States. Still, it has opponents among parents who blame technology for the “dumbest generation” and teachers who are worried about their jobs. | Science & Technology | |
| 8/10/2013 | -The Supreme Court backed gay marriage by declaring the Defense of Marriage Act unconstitutional and declining to uphold a challenge to Proposition 8 in California. But it also struck down an enforcement mechanism in the 1965 Voting Rights Act that required states and counties to get federal pre-approval for changes to election laws (allowing racist states to block minority voters). | United States | LGBTQ |
| 8/3/2013 | -Some states are trying to limit employers’ ability to see employees’ criminal histories to encourage firms to give ex-cons a fair shot. After all, society is worse off if former criminals can’t find work. But the better solution is a criminal justice system geared towards rehabilitating criminals and focused on separating dangerous criminals from non-violent ones. | United States | Policing |
| 8/3/2013 | -Americans continue to build beachfront homes even as the oceans are projected to rise as much as two meters by 2100. Florida, New York City, Houston, and Norfolk are all at risk. | United States | |
| 8/3/2013 | -Edward Snowden released documents detailing NSA seizure of Verizon phone logs (metadata) and PRISM, a program which collects, emails, files, and social networking data from firms such as Google, Apple, and Facebook. They are concerning for their vast size (millions of Americans and foreigners), their effect on U.S. relations with other nations (allies work hard to protect privacy), and the minimal oversight (which often causes government to be opportunistic). | United States | |
| 8/3/2013 | -Virginia’s upcoming gubernatorial race features Terry McAuliffe, who won millions from a firm that went bust and cost 10,000 jobs, versus Ken Cuccinelli, a tea-party favorite who challenged Obamacare in court and challenges the state’s flagship university over global warming research. Both candidates have distanced themselves from incumbent Bob McDonnell, who is mired in scandal over special favors, food theft, and false expenditure charges. | United States | Politics |
| 8/3/2013 | -A federal policy of punishing states where pupils do badly in school and letting states set the pass mark has led to severe grade inflation. Thus, a Common Core of national standards in math and English was created for interstate comparison. Critics on the right fear the federalization of schools while those on the left fret the overemphasis of testing. | Global | Education |
| 8/3/2013 | -A minor increase in bus ticket prices became the tipping point for protests in Brazil. A quarter million took the streets to complain about first-world tax rates, inflation, poverty and excessive spending on the World Cup Stadiums. | Americas | Brazil |
| 8/3/2013 | -China had hoped the death of the Dalai Lama would allow it to choose the new one and end the Tibet issue. But His Holiness’ death may actually lead to a more unstable environment and China is wisely taking a less hardnose approach to Tibetan autonomy. | Asia | China |
| 8/3/2013 | -Iran elected Hassan Rohani, a pragmatic former chief nuclear negotiator who will seek to ease sanctions on his people. Inflation is over 30%, inequality is increasing, and the economy is shrinking. Still, analysts believe Iran may be only a year away from a nuclear weapon and even if negotiations take place, they are slow. Israel and the United States have set different red lines, and Obama has not promised to back Israel if it launched a preemptive strike. Bombing nuclear facilities would likely lead to a full invasion in order to ensure the job was complete. Stemming the rise of Persian power is another reason to intervene in Syria. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 8/3/2013 | -Monterrey, Mexico’s juxtaposition of opulence with extreme poverty led to a period of extreme violence. But the state has responded with a new private-style police force which is more professional, gets paid more, patrols with jeeps, and lives in compounds where they are unlikely to be corrupted by organized crime networks. It may offer a model for other Mexican cities to follow. | Americas | Mexico |
| 8/3/2013 | -President Hollande in France has no alternative but to cut pension and welfare, an awkward situation for a Socialist president in the country which spends the greatest percent of GDP on social services in the world. | Europe | France |
| 8/3/2013 | -Prime Minister Cameron is pushing action in Syria while a huge majority of the country opposes it. | Europe | UK |
| 8/3/2013 | -Unlicensed drivers are almost five times more likely to be in a fatal crash, and also more likely to flee the scene of an accident. Now governors in several states are allowing illegal immigrants to apply for driving licenses. | Other | |
| 7/27/2013 | -Since 1940, the population of the Mississippi Delta has fallen by almost half, as mechanization replaces farm jobs and manufacturing shuts down. Without strong education system, it seems doomed for perpetual poverty. | United States | |
| 7/27/2013 | -After enduring a decade of criticism for its weakness, the Chinese yuan now looks uncomfortably strong. The long-term trend reflects China’s rapid economic growth, stronger labor laws, and shrinking working-age population. But the recent surge could be a government effort to lay the groundwork for a larger plan to ease capital controls. | Asia | China |
| 7/27/2013 | -England issued a perfunctory apology for detaining some 90,000 Kenyans during the colonial period it took 10 years and $9 million in legal battles. | Europe | UK |
| 7/27/2013 | -In response to the protests, Erdogan has chosen to impose his will rather than negotiate. While this style has served him well in battles against army and the judiciary, it risks throwing what many considered a model Muslim country into chaos. It has already lost the confidence of foreign investors. | Europe | Turkey |
| 7/27/2013 | -Riots have spread like wildfire through Turkey, sparked by a violent government reaction to a demonstration over a public park. Mr. Erdogan has led the country to consistent 5% GDP growth and done more than predecessors to reach out to the Kurdish minority. Still, his party’s religious roots have begun to erode his popularity. He once called democracy “a train from which you get off once you reach the station” and checks on his power have gradually fallen. More journalists are in jail in Turkey than China. Thus, he should pass over power of his AK party to Abdullah Gul at the next election. | Europe | Turkey |
| 7/27/2013 | -SPECIAL REPORT: If Europe’s economies are to recover, Germany must lead. Merkel has proved the most adept politician on the continent. But three obstacles remain: 1) Post-WWII historical aversion to being leader (want to be “economically prosperous, politically modest”). 2) Belief that Eurocrisis was result of lazy Southern European economies. 3) Strategy: if Germany seems ready to open its wallet, its southern neighbors may be less willing to change. Thus, German leadership is wanting. On the euro Germany’s competitiveness agenda is insufficient, and Germany’s energy policy is less an example of bold leadership than of an ill-planned unilateralism that illustrates the country’s deep reluctance to think strategically about international challenges. | Europe | Germany |
| 7/27/2013 | -The ECB is making progress in becoming the single supervisor of the region’s biggest banks but needs to be able to enforce its will. It remains to be seen what liabilities it finds in the next round of stress tests of European banks. | Europe | |
| 7/27/2013 | -The mass migration of Koreans to Japan in the early 20th Century created a number of North Korean schools in Japan, but they are decreasing as the government cuts off funding. | Asia | Japan |
| 7/27/2013 | -While China has long contributed support personnel to UN peacekeeping, reports indicate it could dispatch 500 to 600 armed soldiers to Mali. | Middle East & Africa | Mali |
| 7/27/2013 | -While the National Electoral Council in Venezuela confirmed Nicolas Maduro’s victory through an electronic audit, opponents note that their complaint was about violence at polling stations, multiple voting, and the casting of votes for the dead. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 7/20/2013 | -Barack Obama laid out new rules for drone strikes but left himself leeway for defining imminent danger. Brennan wants more strikes to be done by the military as opposed to the highly secretive CIA. He hopes to lay a stronger legal foundation as other countries such as Russia and China begin to develop similar capabilities. | United States | Terrorism |
| 7/20/2013 | -The U.S. is wrestling with outdated farm laws which given government subsidies to thousands of people (including Bruce Springsteen) that don’t even reside on a farm. | United States | |
| 7/20/2013 | -The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that police can collect DNA from anyone they arrest. DNA has solved a number of crimes, though the dissent argued that a motive should be required. | United States | Policing |
| 7/20/2013 | -Atheist groups launched a lawsuit against Christian groups that leave free Bibles in nightstands of public cabins and are planning to leave books by atheists such as Christopher Hitchens instead. | Global | Religion |
| 7/20/2013 | -Barack Obama and Xi Jinping seek to reverse a trend of unraveling relations between the superpowers at a summit in California. Mr. Xi, whose father was a comrade-in-arms of Mao, enjoys more personal authority than his dull predecessor Hu Jintao. He has cracked down on corruption and talks of economic reform. The most pressing issues have been Chinese cybercrime and U.S. curbed exports, though climate change and security issues will be discussed as well. For both leaders, there is more to be gained from cooperation than conflict. | Asia | China |
| 7/20/2013 | -Both sides of the civil war largely protected Libya’s valuable oil infrastructure and its production recovered following the end of the war last year. But it has since declined due to political chaos and the bureaucracy of the National Oil Company. | Middle East & Africa | Libya |
| 7/20/2013 | -Brazil’s stadiums for next year’s World Cup are drastically behind schedule. It took so long to select venues, arrange dunging, and start building that only two of the six stadiums for this month’s Confederation Cup, a warm-up tournament, were finished as planned. The budget is three times the total for the last World Cup in South America. | Americas | Brazil |
| 7/20/2013 | -Fertility in Latin America is dropping dramatically, with the average number of children dropping from 5 to 2 since 1970. | Americas | |
| 7/20/2013 | -Nearly 1 billion people have been taken out of extreme poverty (less than $1.25/day) in the past 20 years. 680 million of them were in China alone. The Millennium Development Goal has helped but most of the credit belongs to capitalism. Every 1% increase in GDP decreases poverty by about 1.7%. By 2030, poverty could be eliminated, but the remaining 1 billion may be the hardest to reach and are mostly located in India and Africa. | Global | |
| 7/20/2013 | -Over the past three years, Hungarian leader Viktor Orban has antagonized foreign allies, fallen out with friends and provoked alarm at the European Commission, the Council of Europe and the European Parliament through a blitzkrieg of controversial reforms. Hungary remains the EU’s biggest debtor and needs support from foreign investors. | Europe | Hungary |
| 7/20/2013 | -Pakistan’s new prime minister Nawaz Sharif is attempting to improve the electricity industry by providing government support to electricity companies who don’t earn enough money to provide full service. Some of the poor steal electricity from public lines a few hours each day using metal hooks. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 7/20/2013 | -Peace talks between the Colombian government and the FARC announced a deal on rural development, the first of five points on the agenda. The difficulty will be finalizing the deal before talks break down, especially as people have a thirst for “justice” in punishing the FARC for past crimes. | Americas | Colombia |
| 7/20/2013 | -Roughly 90% of abortions in Latin America and Africa are unsafe, compared to around 10% in Europe and 0% in the United States and Canada. | Americas | Canada |
| 7/20/2013 | -The Boy Scouts agreed to allow openly gay scouts. It was difficult considering religious groups sponsor about 70% of scout units. But 60% of leaders were in favor, in addition to the Mormons and United Methodists. | Global | LGBTQ |
| 7/20/2013 | -The French Open stadium outside Paris has fallen behind the expanded Wimbledon and Arthur Ashe stadiums in Britain and the United States. Still, planned expansions were rebuked by local residents who deplore “yet more concrete” on an historic site. | Other | Sports |
| 7/20/2013 | -The rising price of alcohol in Iran has led even the wealthy to shift habits to Armenian bootleggers who provide arak, a cheap and heady moonshine. Because it is unregulated, however, it can be dangerous. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 7/20/2013 | -Timor-Leste has taken Australia to arbitration over a 2006 agreement on the exploitation of oil and gas in the sea between them. The tiny nation, which received independence from Indonesia in 1999, is heavily reliant on offshore oil and gas reserves. | Asia | Australia |
| 7/20/2013 | -While Qatar’s state-controlled news program, Al Jazeera, has supported the Arab Spring everywhere else, it remains as tight a society as ever. While the country is wealthy, people have grown unhappy with spending on the Syrian civil war and other foreign projects. | Middle East & Africa | Qatar |
| 7/20/2013 | -Wind power, proliferating through generous federal tax credits, now accounts for about 3.5% of the country’s electricity supply, enough to power 15 million homes. The Department of Energy hopes by 2030, the figure will reach 20%, though it will depend on the future of the Production Tax Credit. | Global | |
| 7/20/2013 | -With the exception of Tesla, most electric-powered car companies are failing. Future cars may rely more on low-cost bio fuels than electric batteries. | Business & Economics | |
| 7/20/2013 | -Young Britons have turned liberal, both socially and economically. Politicians (especially in the Liberal Democratic Party) need to exploit this in the next election. The best candidate is London mayor Boris Johnson. | Europe | UK |
| 7/13/2013 | -On May 29th, the European Commission recommended removing Italy from the excessive deficit procedure (the sin bin for countries with dodgy public accounts). It was more good news for Prime Minister Enrico Letta, whose Democratic Party (PD) also emerged unscathed from local elections, the first test since he formed a ruling coalition with Berlusconi’s PdL. | Europe | Italy |
| 7/13/2013 | -UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon and World Bank President Jim Kim are both Korean and share strong rapport. | Asia | Korea |
| 7/6/2013 | -With Obama on the attack for a trio of scandals (Benghazi, AP snooping, IRS targeting) and Congress in gridlock, optimism is low for his second term. But Obama should focus on immigration, entitlements, and tax reform. | United States | |
| 7/6/2013 | -China may have stationed troops inside India’s territory to raise tensions as a prelude to negotiations. Despite friendly rhetoric and a growing economic relationship, Indians remain highly skeptical of their neighbor. | Asia | China |
| 7/6/2013 | -Conservative Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan pushed through a bill which bans shops from selling alcohol between 10pm and 6am or displaying bottles in the windows. It is unpopular for fear of discouraging tourism. | Europe | Turkey |
| 7/6/2013 | -Indonesian President Susilo Bambang has imposed a moratorium on deforestation since 2011. While enforcement has remained spotty, it is a courageous move for a politician not known for his conviction. | Asia | Indonesia |
| 7/6/2013 | -Raul Castro, Fidel’s brother, has slowly begun to open Cuba’s economy since becoming president in 2008, but he insists he is updating the socialist model rather than introducing capitalism. Several foreign businessmen have been arrested for corruption. | Americas | Cuba |
| 7/6/2013 | -Seven of the world’s eight most violent countries lie on the bloody trafficking route from the cocaine fields of the Andes to the nostrils of North America. An Organization of American States report discussed the possibility of legalizing marijuana in Europe and North America, two primary markets. | Global | Drugs |
| 7/6/2013 | -The crack cocaine drug scandal for Canadian Prime Minister Rob Ford has distracted the public from continuing deficits and the controversial issue of abortion. | Americas | Canada |
| 7/6/2013 | -While some fear social media undermines professional journalism, it may actually help the pros locate stories quickly and give them more evidence to use. Newspapers like the Guardian have launched Guardian Witness, a mini-site that helps mobile users share newsworthy videos. | Global | |
| 7/6/2013 | -World Bank President Jim Yong Kim has done a good job but should stand up against shareholders who want to eliminate the “Doing Business” report, a measure of government regulation in business. The largest opposition comes from China, which is ranked 91st. | Asia | China |
| 6/29/2013 | -The weapons industry is increasingly using “offsets,” in which they agree to invest in a country which purchases their arms. To cynics, these arrangements, are seen as market-distorting and glorified bribes. | United States | Military |
| 6/29/2013 | -After an unsuccessful stint as Japanese prime minister in 2007, Shinzo Abe is back and this time more focused on revamping the economy. Abenomics: mix of relation, government spending, and growth, has led to a skyrocketing stock market and approval rating. Still, 240% debt and aging demographics. | Asia | Japan |
| 6/29/2013 | -Croatia will join the European Union on July 1, but it already faces many of the same economic difficulties as the current members. | Europe | Croatia |
| 6/29/2013 | -Francois Hollande is struggling to follow through on his vow to be a “normal” politician in abnormal economic times. To fix France’s competitiveness problem, he must cut back benefits and government regulation to become more business-friendly. | Europe | France |
| 6/29/2013 | -Greece’s economic stability has increased dramatically over the past year and fears of a Grexit have subsided: bailout funds are flowing in as milestones are reached and businesses are being privatized. Still, there is more to be done and people are growing ever more wary of austerity. | Europe | Greece |
| 6/29/2013 | -In March 2012, leaders of Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Sudan agreed to launch an oil pipeline to the Indian Ocean. While this has the potential to raise major revenues, progress has stalled due to Uganda’s non-participation and other disagreements. Now each country is drawing up its own alternative pipeline plans. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 6/29/2013 | -In October 2012, the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front signed a peace agreement to create an autonomous region in Bangasmoro. While progress has been made, the normalization (disarmament) of the rebels may prove difficult. | Asia | Philippines |
| 6/29/2013 | -The relatively speedy U.S. recovery casts doubt on Europe’s handling of the recession and show that structural reforms and bailouts are more effective than austerity. | Global | |
| 6/22/2013 | -Even founders and leaders France and Germany are becoming more pessimistic about the Eurozone. Anti-euro parties are gaining traction in Germany. | Europe | Germany |
| 6/22/2013 | -In the eleventh hour, reformer Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani joined the Iranian presidential race. President from 1989-97, he helped end the war with Iraq and rebuild the economy. Adds an interesting twist for the radical clerics. | Middle East & Africa | Iran |
| 6/22/2013 | -Moderates in Syria are being squeezed between regime forces and extremist rebel groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra, which has ties to al-Qaeda. Assad’s allies—Iran and Hezbollah—have backed the regime more than Gulf Arab and Western states have backed the rebels. Problem is the rebel groups still lack a command structure. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 6/22/2013 | -Nawaz Sharif is back as the Pakistani prime minister after being overthrown by the military and Pervez Musharraf in 2001 (now under house arrest). The Punjab leader aligns with the religious right but has been willing to put country above self and is expected to improve relations with India. | Asia | Pakistan |
| 6/22/2013 | -Russia caught an American spy red-handed Moscow and has drawn attention to the incident to ride a wave of growing anti-Americanism. | Europe | Russia |
| 6/22/2013 | -Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou has presided over improved relations with China through increased trade and tourism. But interests over disputed islands are different: Taiwan wants to fish while China feels entitled to them. | Asia | China |
| 6/22/2013 | -The supply side of China’s economy is as strong as ever (labor, capital, etc.), but demand is recovering more slowly than expected. A series of new supply-side structural reforms (natural-resources tax, higher utility prices) could further weaken demand. Economy simultaneously needs stimulus and reform. | Asia | China |
| 6/22/2013 | -Turkey initially supported Assad but turned on him when he began killing his own citizens. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s support for rebels is being blamed for car bombings in Turkey near the Syrian border—most Turks oppose intervention. | Europe | Turkey |
| 6/22/2013 | -While regional trade agreements in South America have traditionally been weak, Chile Columbia Mexico and Peru have created the Pacific Alliance which looks promising and is comparable to the size of the dominant Brazil economy. | Americas | Peru |
| 6/22/2013 | -With the ongoing chaos in Syria, al-Qaeda is now closer than ever to getting chemical weapons such as sarin gas. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 6/15/2013 | -Poverty, gang wars, and drug trade caused so much crime in Camden that the under-funded police force was disbanded and replaced by a new regional department with a special metro unit. The murder rate has fallen significantly. | United States | Policing |
| 6/15/2013 | -The Health Paradox: America’s rampant health spending threatens its economic future, but also supports tens of millions of jobs. | United States | Healthcare |
| 6/15/2013 | -A Libyan law is set to bar senior Qaddafi-era people from holding office for ten years. This includes two of the country’s most prominent politicians. | Middle East & Africa | Libya |
| 6/15/2013 | -Bolivian President Evo Morales ordered USAID out of his country as aid fell from over $60m to around $11m this fiscal year. He still remains popular thanks to a weak and divided opposition. | Americas | Bolivia |
| 6/15/2013 | -Chinese telecom firms Huawei and ZTE have long been snubbed in America and Australia for security concerns, but now they are beginning to get a colder reception in Europe as well (not for being spies, but for being too cheap). | Europe | |
| 6/15/2013 | -David Cameron’s offer for an in-out referendum on the EU was unsuccessful at stealing the thunder from the growing UK Independence Party. | Europe | UK |
| 6/15/2013 | -India’s working-age population is rising by about 12m/year, even as China’s decreased by 3m last year. Still, they are squandering a huge opportunity. Youth unemployment is high and it struggles to attract the right kinds of firms. It lacks manufacturing compared to China and IT firms are not as widespread as they could be. Most of the employed are in low-skill jobs such as physical security. Reforms like less bureaucracy, better schools, and decent electricity would help. | Asia | India |
| 6/15/2013 | -Modern marketing is less of a campaign and more of an interactive conversation on social networking sites such as Twitter. Must react to current events like the blackout at the Super Bowl. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/15/2013 | -Putin’s political mastermind, Vladislav Surkov, was forced to resign after being blamed for the protest movement and loss of support from the urban middle-class in Russia. | Europe | Russia |
| 6/15/2013 | -Small and independent breweries have thrived during the recession and its aftermath, taking market share away from traditional beer brands. They have been aided by excise tax cuts for “craft beers,” but there is disagreement about what that means. If it’s under 6m barrels/year, than Boston Beer Company (maker of Sam Adams) qualifies. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/15/2013 | -SPECIAL REPORT: American investment banks have recovered much more quickly than European ones and reclaimed their pre-2008 dominance. U.S. banks received more generous bailouts and European regulations to specify how much banks can pay in bonuses relative to base pay hindered recovery. Still, the dominance of a few Wall Street firms should be concerning to American taxpayers and investors who will bear the risk of future bailouts and suffer from higher IPO fees. Higher capital requirements seem to be the most promising regulation to improve stability; much more effective than the confusing Dodd-Frank regulations. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/15/2013 | -The Arctic Council (Russia, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, Canada, and the United States) admitted its first Asian observers (China, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore). The EU and Greenpeace were denied. | Asia | |
| 6/15/2013 | -The Fed and White House are struggling to decide on a measure of inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Chained CPI, and price index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE). | Business & Economics | |
| 6/8/2013 | -Number of inmates at Gitmo has been steady since 2009. 100 of the 166 prisoners are now on hunger strike as time drags on and conditions worsen. Blame lies with both Congress (for blocking trials in US) and Obama (for blocking return to Yemen). At this point, US should just free all and try to save reputation. | United States | Terrorism |
| 6/8/2013 | -As the world grows more confusing, demand for clever business consultants is booming, especially Bain, BCG and McKinsey. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/8/2013 | -Brazil spent $14 billion on the third-largest hydroelectric project in the world but has met a series of legal and environmental challenges. Despite compensation payments for flooding, locals remain unhappy. | Americas | Brazil |
| 6/8/2013 | -China hosts Israeli and Palestinian leaders and touts its peacemaking credentials. President Xi has put forth a four-point plan for peace. | Asia | China |
| 6/8/2013 | -China looks aggressive of three fronts: stationing soldiers in disputed territory with India, sending surveillance vessels to the Senkaku and Diaoyu islands disputed with Japan, and demanding the Philippines withdraw from a number of islands in the South China Sea. Nobody really wants war but accidents can happen. | Asia | China |
| 6/8/2013 | -China’s new President Xi Jinping has popularized rhetoric regarding a Chinese dream based not solely on wealth but also on reform and building legitimacy for the Communist Party. The dream, however, can mean different things to different people; two dangers are excessive nationalism and a lack of democratization. | Asia | China |
| 6/8/2013 | -Despite high unemployment, French software development firms were having trouble recruiting. Thus, one launches a swanky new school for software developers called “42.” It is revolutionary in its targeting of talent in poor areas and its emphasis on self-learning over rote memorization. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/8/2013 | -Following its independence in July 2011, South Sudan is struggling to build a decent government and society. It has resources but shut down oil production to spite its northern neighbor. | Middle East & Africa | Sudan |
| 6/8/2013 | -High interest rates on loans to small and medium size businesses in Italy and France is constricting a huge segment of their economies. ECB should provide fresh support for business lending. | Europe | |
| 6/8/2013 | -Ho Chi Minh City is extremely vulnerable to flooding and is debating how to best combat this risk. | Asia | Vietnam |
| 6/8/2013 | -Killings of Islamist hardliners from Hefajet-e-Islam in Dhaka promise further instability in Bangladesh. | Asia | Bangladesh |
| 6/8/2013 | -Lanzhou New City is under construction on the edge of the Gobi desert to relieve overcrowding and create a new hub in western China. Still, it is under criticism for the absence of environmental evaluations, public consultation, or even official approval. | Asia | China |
| 6/8/2013 | -The disaster in Bangladesh reveals the atrocious building standards in many parts of southeast Asia—especially Bangladesh. Even the disaster response was subpar as firemen were there but most of the actual rescues were done by locals. | Asia | Bangladesh |
| 6/8/2013 | -The U.S. Pentagon complains about “China’s lack of transparency surrounding its growing military capabilities and strategic decision-making.” But the U.S. pivot/rebalancing to Asia remains rather opaque as well. While it was supposed to focus on Southeast, the Senkaku and Diaoyu islands disputes have kept the focus in the north. No matter what America says, China will see it as trying to contain its rise. | Asia | China |
| 6/1/2013 | -After Obama’s failed gun control legislation, Rhode Island attempted a massive buy-back of guns but it was largely unsuccessful. | United States | Guns |
| 6/1/2013 | -The economic recession has forced states to be smart and savvy about offering subsidies to businesses to who build plants there. Values can reach $275 million. | United States | |
| 6/1/2013 | -The Marathon bombers supposedly learned how to conduct the attack by reading Inspire, the online magazine published by AQAP. | United States | Terrorism |
| 6/1/2013 | -A NYPD policy of stopping and frisking suspicious individuals has made the city safer but drawn criticism for racial profiling—black and Latino men represent 25% and 28% of the population but nearly 90% of the searches. | United States | Policing |
| 6/1/2013 | -Affirmative action is generally used to atone for past injustices and ameliorate their legacy. But is also unfair to Asians and whites with significantly higher scores and does not provide incentives for blacks to study. Diversity of backgrounds can be a good thing, but it should be based on background and not just race. | United States | Race |
| 6/1/2013 | -“Amateurs discuss tactics, while professionals discuss logistics.” Obama is still deciding how many troops to keep in Afghanistan after NATO’s mission expires in 2014, but it will be a fraction of current levels. The problem with removing so much equipment is that for the first time, the U.S. lacks a reliable seaport (best is Pakistan, but tense relations). Northern route through Uzbekistan is reliable but slow. | Asia | Afghanistan |
| 6/1/2013 | -38 Chinese cities are building underground metro systems, though as many as 18 of them are so small they don’t need them. | Asia | China |
| 6/1/2013 | -A free trade agreement between the United States and the European Union would be beneficial to both parties (and represent about a third of global trade), but may be doomed over small issues as the window of political opportunity closes. | Europe | |
| 6/1/2013 | -A French defense review proposed freezing spending for the next six years but maintaining the nuclear deterrent. The focuses are on Mali, the horn of Africa, and more intra-European cooperation. | Europe | France |
| 6/1/2013 | -A new survey of global Muslim opinion shows very wide variation on issues like executing those who leave Islam and corporal punishments for criminals. | Middle East & Africa | |
| 6/1/2013 | -As gay rights improve in the West, homophobia is increasing elsewhere. American Christian zealots are fighting back against gay rights abroad in places like Uganda and Eastern Europe. | Global | LGBTQ |
| 6/1/2013 | -College athletes such as Johnny Manziel have generated as much as $37 million worth of media exposure but are still not allowed to earn profits. An antitrust lawsuit is being brought against the NCAA. | Other | Sports |
| 6/1/2013 | -Djibouti’s port has become strategically important for three reasons: its access to the world’s largest landlocked country—Ethiopia, it is more on the route between Europe and Asia than Abu Dhabi, piracy and terrorism have brought powerful navies to the region. | Middle East & Africa | Djibouti |
| 6/1/2013 | -Italy finally agreed on a left-center coalition government under Enrico Letta, a young reformist which helped markets. Given the ineffectiveness of Italian government, the best outcome may be if he made a few electoral reforms and called another election to gain more legitimacy. Mostly just keep Grillo and Berlusconi out of power. | Europe | Italy |
| 6/1/2013 | -Italy’s new government has yet to address unrest or fiscal difficulties in the country. Prime Minister Enrico Letta ruled out a planned VAT tax increase and promised to cut employers’ welfare contributions. But with public debt at 132% GDP, these actions are likely to panic the markets. | Europe | Italy |
| 6/1/2013 | -Japanese foreign minister Fumio Kishida upset neighbors by visiting the Yasukuni shrine in Tokyo which honors the 2.4 million Japanese which died in WWII, including the war criminals. | Asia | Japan |
| 6/1/2013 | -Paraguay elected Horatio Cartes of the Colorados (same party as the impeached Fernando Lugo) to the presidency. He was able to present himself as the candidate of change, though it is unlikely he will be able to keep lofty campaign promises. One test will be whether he can rejoin Mercosur. | Americas | Paraguay |
| 6/1/2013 | -Some of England’s best-known private schools are setting up boarding schools abroad in places like Singapore and Kazakhstan. | Europe | UK |
| 6/1/2013 | -The economic slowdown and fact that it is easier to put off hiring young people than fire old people has created huge youth unemployment. Besides growth, other solutions include reforming labor markets and improving education. We have plenty of college grads, but need to teach them more job-applicable skills. | Business & Economics | |
| 6/1/2013 | -The situation in Cyprus is dire and it needs to take advantage of a recently discovered gas field and the tourism industry to recover. It should also pass structural reforms and consider reuniting with Greece. | Europe | Cyprus |
| 6/1/2013 | -The United States should take action in Syria to honor its previous commitment and prevent the situation from worsening. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 6/1/2013 | -There are about 100 British Muslims fighting in the Syrian resistance. British intelligence is worried they may be radicalized and use Syria as a base to launch attacks against England. | Middle East & Africa | Syria |
| 6/1/2013 | -While most Asian economies have outgrown their ports, many in the Bay of Bengal (east of India) are getting an upgrade which could transform the economic geography of Asia by avoiding the Malacca Strait dilemma. | Asia | India |
| 5/25/2013 | -The American coal industry is suffering from the plummeting cost of natural gas and a torrent of tough new environmental rules. The future may include sending it on railroads from Wyoming to Washington before shipping it to Asia, which is in need of more energy. | United States | Climate |
| 5/25/2013 | -The health care exchanges created by the Affordable Care Act must exist by October 1st but implementation is proving difficult. While these exchanges are popular for small businesses, the logistics of providing multiple choices and improving benefits is looking troublesome and expensive. | United States | Healthcare |
| 5/25/2013 | -Although Mexican President Pena Nieto arrested the leader of the National Education Workers’ Union on Deb. 26, that group has been replaced by a group of dissident school teachers who have led aggressive protest movements against education reforms. Many fear they are tied to a guerilla movement. | Americas | Mexico |
| 5/25/2013 | -Despite progress with SARS (2003), H5N1 bird flu (2005) and H1N1 swine flu (2009), the world is still unprepared for a major pandemic outbreak. | Global | |
| 5/25/2013 | -France’s parliament agreed to legalize gay marriage and adoption. | Europe | France |
| 5/25/2013 | -Inflation continues to be a problem in Brazil, where prices increased 6.6% over the past year. The central bank raised the interest rate to 7.5%, but it seems to be acting too late. | Americas | Brazil |
| 5/25/2013 | -Japan’s vows to phase out nuclear energy are beginning to reverse as Shinzo Abe announced he would restart reactors after they pass new safety tests. Still, a series of additional nuclear power mishaps have embarrassed the government and reignited the public’s fear of nuclear power. | Asia | Japan |
| 5/25/2013 | -John Kerry’s visit to North Korea did little to tone down Kim Jong Un’s battle cries and the birthday celebration for Kim Il Sung. China is unlikely to be able to reign in its unruly neighbor because they fear a unified peninsula would ally with the United States against them. | Asia | Korea |
| 5/25/2013 | -Margaret Thatcher’s economic policies created a major divide between the manufacturing-heavy north and services-heavy south in Britain. Parties need to better market themselves to opposing territory and more devolution of power could help. | Europe | UK |
| 5/25/2013 | -Sectarian tensions are on the rise in Iraq, where protests were suppressed by security forces and 27 Sunni protesters died—the most serious crisis since Americans left in December 2011. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 5/25/2013 | -Serbia finally agreed to respect Kosovo’s autonomy over 45,000 ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo. | Europe | Serbia |
| 5/25/2013 | -SPECIAL REPORT: Driverless cars have the potential to ease congestion, save fuel, improve safety, and allow disabled people to improve their mobility. Some say they don’t trust computers to drive them but other forms of transportation like trains and planes are already heavily dependent on technology. | Science & Technology | |
| 5/25/2013 | -The war in Chechnya is no longer a separatist conflict, but is now dominated by Islamists. Russia launched wars against Chechnya in 1994 and 1999, but since Islam took over there has been conflict between Sufism and Salafism. Russia has alternated between soft and hard tactics. | Europe | Russia |
| 5/25/2013 | -Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro failed to sustain the support of Hugo Chavez and takes over an economy in ruins (no growth, 30% inflation). He will need to make reforms, even though his weakening chavista base wants him to become more authoritarian. | Americas | Venezuela |
| 5/18/2013 | -Alexei Navalny, a popular anti-corruption blogger and opposition figure is being charged for embezzling $500,000 from a state timber company during his time as a governor advisor. He will likely be convicted but the effects are uncertain. | Europe | Russia |
| 5/18/2013 | -Although China’s growth has slowed, there were two indicators of modernization. Consumption made a larger contribution and services trumped industry. This maturation will slow its growth, and fighting it will only invite inflation, excess and harder reckonings. | Asia | China |
| 5/18/2013 | -Chinese investment in Europe is on the rise, especially in services. Still, they are frustrated with regulatory delay and the bureaucracy of the EU. | Asia | China |
| 5/18/2013 | -Despite assertions to the contrary, Iraq’s Kurds are inching towards outright independence. The Kurds are trapped between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, but have maintained a stable economy compared to the dismal state of the rest of Iraq. They dislike Maliki and have a lot of oil themselves. | Middle East & Africa | Iraq |
| 5/18/2013 | -The resignation of Salam Fayyad as Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority (West Bank) was a blow to western nations which felt comfortable dealing with the former MBA, PhD, and IMF official. Fayyad did improve standards of living but infighting between Fatah and Hamas continues. | Middle East & Africa | Israel |
| 5/18/2013 | -Though its public opposes the move, Latvia looks likely to become the 18th member of the EuroZone next January. | Europe | Latvia |