Wes likes to read, but struggles to remember what he learns. Since around 2015, he has kept a repository of book notes (plus the occasional podcast or documentary). All credit belongs to the authors and creators.
Talk about experiences and feelings; support their exploration. Even difficult moments are opportunities to not just survive but thrive. First, assess HALT (hungry, angry, lonely, tired).
Integrating LEFT (logical) and RIGHT (artistic) Brain
Connect and Redirect: When child is upset, connect first emotionally in the right brain (e.g. acknowledge feelings). Once they are calmer, bring in left brain lessons/discipline.
Name it to tame it: When big, right-brain emotions are raging out of control, help your kids understand what’s upsetting them by telling their own story, so their left brain can help make sense of their experience and they feel more control.
Integrating UPSTAIRS (sophisticated) and DOWNSTAIRS (emotional, amygdala) Brain
Engage, don’t enrage: An upstairs tantrum is when your toddler decides to throw a fit—don’t negotiate with terrorists. But in a downstairs tantrum, start with a loving touch and soothing tone, then engage upstairs by asking questions, requesting alternatives, or negotiating, rather than saying “Because I said so!”
Use it or lose it: Exercise their developing upstairs brain by playing “What would you do?” games, and letting them make as many decisions as possible (what to wear, resolving schedule conflicts, giving allowance).
Integrating Memory: Help kids make their implicit memories explicit, so past experiences don’t affect them in debilitating ways.
Integrating Many Parts of Myself: Kids tend to fixate on worries on their “wheel of awareness.”
SIFT Check-ins: Go through Sensations, Images, Feelings, and Thoughts with them on car rides. Ask why they think they feel that way. As get older, introduce to more sophisticated feelings.
Let the clouds of emotion roll by. Average feeling lasts 90 seconds.
Try deep breaths, counting to ten, journaling. Movement and exercise can help resume balance.
Integrating Self and Other: Create positive mental models of relationships and capitalize on the brain’s need for social interaction.
Enjoy each other: Build fun (e.g. improv games) into family, so your kids have secure attachment and positive experiences to draw from. We soak up the emotions around us. Shyness largely genetic but practice builds confidence.
Connect through conflict: View conflict as an opportunity to teach your kids essential relationship skills, like seeing other people’s perspectives, reading non-verbal cues, and making authentic apologies.
Most of the founders believed in some deity and drew some revolutionary inspiration from the scriptures, but they wanted nothing to do with theocracy.
“America’s pastor” Billy Graham grew suspicious of partisans throughout his career and helped establish evangelicals as a joyful and civic-minded alliance of: (1) Pentecostals, with an emphasis on charismatic expressions; (2) Fundamentalists, with old-fashioned rituals; (3) Southern Baptists, with cultural etiquette; and (4) Protestants, with social awareness.
Jerry Falwell Sr. originally criticized MLK for entangling religion and politics, but railed against President Carter for giving an interview with Playboy magazine in which he admitted to having “looked on a lot of women with lust.” Notre Dame’s Catholics were too dignified and BYU too genial to battle the left, so he created Liberty University. Others now include Bob Jones University, Oral Roberts University, and Wheaton. With Heritage co-founder Paul Weyrich, Falwell created the “Moral Majority” which spiked during the Reagan years. Falwell Jr. fancied himself a businessman with an affinity for Trump and cracked down on the student newspaper and turned the school into a satellite location for CPAC, and draconian enforcement of the Liberty honor code (e.g. no dancing) all while he found himself in a love triangle with a pool boy.
Pat Robertson was a televangelist who ran unsuccessfully for President in 1988 and went on to create the “Christian Coalition.”
Trump developed a cocktail of discontent—one part cultural displacement, one part religious persecution, and one part nationalist fervor.
Pastors are struggling to insulate their congregations from COVID (lockdowns, masks, vaccines), Critical Race Theory, 2020 election, wokeness (abortion, homosexuality, transgenderism). Members complain about a sermon or social media post and ignite a rebellion, often flocking to firebrand megachurches. First Baptist Dallas has escalators, a coffee shop, bookstore, and fountains which spray a hundred feet. Many pastors are now regulars on Fox News and at political rallies. On tours (e.g. American Restoration, ReAwaken America, Saving America, Kingdom to the Capitol), they promote their websites (e.g. Faith Wins), publishers (e.g. Charisma Media), events (e.g. Pastors Summit, Freedom Night in America) and organizations (e.g. Faith and Freedom Coalition, TPUSA Faith). As gatekeepers have fallen, extremism has normalized (61% of Republicans support a formal USG declaration that America is a “Christian Nation”).
The Bible teaches that fear is just as powerful as faith. These Christian-right speakers proclaim deep-state Democrats, corporate elites, Hollywood fiends, and traitorous Republicans (even Mike Pence!) are targeting Christianity in America and God’s people need to strike back (by way of giving money to a wide spread of ventures). But many of Christ’s teachings (help the poor, avoid fame, love your enemies) are totally lost. To many evangelicals, America has become an idol, a new Israel, and believe they must fight for their vision of America as if salvation itself hangs in the balance.
While the Catholic Church has effectively offset its scandals with bountiful, centralized, highly visible social programs for the hungry, disabled, and sick, the evangelical brand has become disassociated from the teachings of Christ and obsessed with social and political power. This comes at a time when Americans increasingly distrust the Church and are abandoning religion at a historic pace.
Since 1929, the correlation between growth in GDP and corporate profits is almost perfect (0.98). Since 1900, stocks have returned 9.5%. Most (9.0%) of that is from investment return (dividend yield and earnings growth), the rest (0.5%) is from speculative return (impact of P/E change). While stock prices frequently lose touch with the reality of corporate values—causing swings and corrections—in the long run they always revert to the mean.
Actively Managed Mutual Funds
Costs: Active managed expense ratios (management fees and operating expenses) average 1.3%/year, which cancels returns and compounds over time. And this does not include turnover costs from purchase and sale of securities, which average 0.5%/year. Active turnover around 78% (versus 3% in an index fund) generates a ton of tax liability.
Performance: Over the past 25 years, average mutual fund returned 7.8%/year (versus the 9.1% of the S&P 500). Since 1970, almost 80% of mutual funds have gone out of business and less than 3% beat the market by more than 1%/year. Over time, their performance always reverts to the mean.
History of Indexing: Standard & Poor created the 500 stock index in 1926; Dow Jones created the Wilshire 5000 in 1970; Vanguard created 500 Index in 1976, Total Stock Market Index in 1992. ETFs are ok if total market, but beware of “smart beta ETFs” that try to beat the market.
Recommendations: Don’t look for the needle; buy the haystack. Financial advisors are best used for asset allocation, tax considerations, retirement spending—not picking stocks (most are trying to sell something). In investing, past is rarely prologue (in fact, reversion to the mean suggests the opposite). Benjamin Graham, who pioneered “value” investing the and the search for undervalued securities, recommends 50/50 stock/bond allocation, never surpassing 75/25 either way. Bogle suggests starting and 80/20 and gradually working down to 50/50. Target Date Funds are convenient, just watch out for fees. Since 1993, US has outperformed international 9.1% to 5.1%.
Wall Street Journal personal finance columnist. Studies have found:
We place too high a value on possessions and not enough on experiences
Spending money on others can deliver greater happiness than spending it on ourselves.
We get more pleasure from frequent small purchases than occasional big ones
We get more pleasure when we delay purchases, because delay brings an enjoyable stretch of anticipation
We’re often happier when we have less choice, not more
We’re happier and more enthused about our daily life if we are engaged in activities we feel like we are good at (competence), we are doing them because we want to rather than forced to (autonomy), and we aren’t socially isolated (relatedness).
We make financial decisions not for utilitarian (what it does for me) reasons but expressive (what it says about me) and emotional (how it makes me feel) reasons.
Satisfaction through life declines in our 20s and 30s, bottoms out in our 40s (struggling to raise kids, forge ahead in career, and care for parents), and rebounds from there.
Saving: Having a big house or nice car doesn’t mean someone has a lot of money, it means they spend a lot of money. Living far below our means ensures we need a smaller nest egg to retire in comfort (and that we can enjoy the pleasure of a gradually rising standard of living).
Index Funds: Problems of active management became apparent after 1974 bear market, closer scrutiny of their performance, and improved technology enabling market funds. Vanguard founded 1976. Historically, stocks have earned 7% above inflation (money doubles every seven years).
Charles Lindbergh: A little known stunt pilot, Atlantic crossing was an impressive feat of navigation and endurance. 4-5M attended his ticker tape parades in NYC and his summer tour visited 82 cities in 3 months. Still, he was awkward and did not enjoy the fame (he would sometimes make detours in the air to extend solitary bliss). Dogged by the press (during honeymoon and following the murder of his son), he moved to Europe where developed admiration for Hitler. Upon return, broadcast America First speech assaulting British, Jews, and FDR and never recovered popularity.
Baseball: 1919 Black Sox were found not guilty in federal court but banned nonetheless. Though much about the ballpark experience has stayed the same, 1920s parks were unique shapes, poorly maintained and lacked a public address system. There were more fights (including with fans) and being a player wasn’t glamorous (carried own bags, sometimes played in dirty uniforms). Although popular, few teams made money because most people were at work during day games. In 1923, a Philadelphia judge ruled fans were allowed to keep foul balls. Gehrig was strong and handsome, but suffered from no personality and crippling shyness. Ruth made $70K/year, more than the next five teammates but less than than the radio announcer. The dominant 1927 Yankees won 110 games on the strength of 60 and 47 HRs by Ruth and Gherig, respectively. Once inseparable, Gherig stopped speaking to Ruth after he allegedly slept with his wife.
Prohibition: A shambolic experiment. Dept of Treasury was tasked with enforcing but lacked funding or zeal. US lost ~$500M/year in liquor taxes. Speakeasies with unregulated drinks proliferated. Because alcohol has legitimate purposes beyond drinking, the USG intentionally poisoned a random assortment of it to deter drinking (poisoned as many as 60K). Lost momentum when zealot Wayne Wheeler’s wife burnt to death in a kitchen accident and he subsequently died of a heart attack.
Al Capone: Gangsters enjoyed near total immunity in Chicago. When a mobster died in 1921, 8K people attended the funeral and his pallbearers included a prosecutor. Alphonse “Scarface” Capone’s reign really only lasted 1925-1927 and many of the stories are myth. Still, he generated and estimated $105M producing illicit (and tax-free) booze, paying off scores of law enforcement before arrests for weapons and tax evasion.
Presidents: Ohio Senator Harding’s unexpected election was largely premised on being handsome. He was ineffective and crass, appointing corrupt friends, though he died right before Teapot Dome scandal broke. The unknown and eccentric “Silent Cal” Coolidge administration was “dedicated to inactivity,” working 4.5hrs/day. Depressed and unmotivated, Coolidge held a press conference where he handed out sheets saying “I do not choose to run.” Sec Commerce Herbert Hoover took a hand in everything and tirelessly self-promotion (Was also a proponent of eugenics). Hoover both won the 1928 election and lost the 1932 election by record margins.
Stock Market Crash: Adherence to gold standard resulted in buildup of gold in NYC Fed—which reduced interest rate from 4% to 3.5% to encourage trade. However, this led to Great Market Bubble of 1928 and subsequent crash in October 1929.
Henry Ford: For a man who changed the world with his assembly line, Ford was narrow-minded (never lived far outside Dearborn, MI) and unintelligent (insisted the earth could not support the weight of skyscrapers and cities would collapse in on themselves). The Model T was rudimentary with no speedometer or gas gauge (had to tip back driver’s seat to check dipstick). But it was adaptable and indestructible, and pioneered putting the driver on the left-hand side. Fordlandia was a 20-year misguided plan to build a model American community in the jungles of Brazil and from it run the greatest rubber producing estate in the world. Pushed anti-Semitism in Dearborn Independent.
Anarchists: JEH started Great Red Scare started after 1919 AG Palmer bombing. Many Americans believed the nation had flung open its doors to the tired and poor of Europe only to have that generosity repaid with strikes, bombs, and rebellions. Two Italian immigrants were convicted and executed for a robbery/double homicide, with minimal evidence (though they were likely involved in bomb making).
Other: Top-billed boxing matches attracted as many as 150K spectators at Soldier Field. On Mt Rushmore, a crack on Jefferson’s nose meant the face was reset many feet deeper into the stone. WWI masterpiece Wings won first best picture in 1929. The KKK re-emerged in the 1920s strategically focusing on hatred of Catholics in the midwest, Orientals in the West, Jews in the east, and Blacks everywhere. Supreme Court ruled 8-1 state could sterilize women who scored poorly on IQ tests.
Longevity Components
Lifespan: How long you live (i.e. years alive)
Healthspan: How well you live (i.e. physical, mental, and emotional well-being)
Four Horsemen (all have come to prominence in the modern era)
Heart Disease. We understand (LDL -> foam cell -> “fatty streak” -> calcification -> clot). Use statins and monitor apoB.
Cancer. We don’t understand (cancerous cells don’t stop growing, metastasize). Kill rate steady for past half century (maxed out our ability to treat with chemotherapy, surgery, and/or radiation). Use early, aggressive screening and immunotherapy (enhanced T cells).
Neurodegenerative Disease (e.g. Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Lewy body dementia, ALS, Huntington’s). We don’t understand. Leading hypothesis: amyloid -> tau, tangles brain (others: restricted blood flow, abnormal glucose metabolism). Build “cognitive reserve” networks by speaking foreign language or playing a musical instrument. Exercise, sleep, check APOE e4.
Metabolic dysfunction (e.g. diabetes). Type 1: Body attacks beta cells which produce insulin to process glucose–need pump. Type 2: Body doesn’t produce enough insulin (11% population).
Whereas “medicine 2.0” is great at reactive treatment of disorders (diagnose, prescribe, bill), “Medicine 3.0” can provide proactive, personalized, long-time horizon care to delay or prevent the horsemen and preserve healthspan. Challenges: it demands more from the patient, and there are few insurance reimbursement codes for preventive interventions.
Toolkit:
Exercise
Cardio - maintain body efficiency. Zone 2 (137-148 bpm): Professionals spend 80% of time training here; foundation. VO2 Max (the speed at which you can turn oxygen into ATP energy). Dabble here.
Strength - maintain muscle mass. Focus on: Grip, Concentric + Eccentric loading, Pulling (pullups and rows), and Hip hinging (step-up) movements.
Stability - Yoga, stretching. Film yourself working out to assess.
Nutrition
Two-thirds of us are over-nourished (never before have humans had access to nearly unlimited calories and our body’s can’t adjust). Use one or more of:
Total Caloric Restriction: Effective for weightloss but unwanted side effects (hunger, muscle loss, infections).
Dietary Restriction: Mediterranean (EVOO, nuts) most compelling; high-fructose drinks most damaging. Macronutrients:
Alcohol: No nutritional value. Limit 2 drinks/day. Studies noting benefits tainted by healthy user bias (old people drink because healthy not healthy because drink).
Carbohydrates (sugar): Continuous Glucose Monitoring can help creates Hawthorne Effect (changed behavior from sense of being watched). Timing matters (donuts before run better than before bed).
Proteins: Critical, especially as you get older and harder to maintain muscle mass. Try to get twice the FDA recommendation.
Fats: Complicated but particularly important for cardiovascular concerns.
Time Restriction (Intermittent Fasting): Trendy but inconclusive. Risks protein deficiency.
Sleep
Quality sleep reduces risk of cardiovascular incident and dementia.
Half life of caffeine is up to 6 hours (though some metabolize faster); though alcohol disrupts even more. Daylight/exercise best to stay awake. During winddown, avoid screens and LED lights (TV is better than computer/phone), eating, and anxiety activities (reading news).
Give yourself a large opportunity window to sleep. Don’t vary wakeup times, even on weekends. Insomniac episodes: do some relaxing; if you do work your body will wake you up again.
Emotional Health (relationships, meditation, therapy to process trauma). Eulogy virtues > resume virtues. Happiness reaches nadir in 40s.
Pharmacology (drugs, hormones, supplements)
History of Work: Hunter-gatherers could garner all the necessary food, water, and firewood in 15 hours/week; leaving the remainder for “leisure.” Even as specialized trades emerged, it wasn’t until the Industrial Revolution workers were required to show up for shifts (9am-5pm, 5 days/week emerged in the early 1900s). Work gives our lives purpose; one study found 50% of long-term unemployed suffered from depression (although the threshold may be just one day/week).
Hiring: Mirror language from the job posting in your resume. Structured interviews are significantly more useful than unstructured. Taller and more attractive men earn more.
Meetings: Video calls are unnatural because they require people to stare at a fixed point, they speak 15% louder, and it’s easy to be distracted (by your own image or email). To prevent meeting fatigue, schedule for 20/50 min to leave 10 minutes after. Bezos begins each meeting with all participants silently reading a 6-page memo (writing is more concise than speech). Jargon exists to fill holes and make any insight sound sophisticated, but ultimately creates word salad. “Better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.”
Office Culture: Open-plan designs paradoxically reduce face-to-face interactions because people don’t want to be overheard. Presenteeism: Workers feel pressure to stay at the office even when they don’t have much work to do. Working at home means some are anxious to show they are busy. Breaks (including vacations longer than a week-end) improve efficiency and increase creativity. Schedule social events toward the end of the work day so employees with other responsibilities can take part (alcohol can be available but shouldn’t be the main focus).
Management: CEO pay has skyrocketed since 1978 due to share options/long bull market, fierce competition, and tech founders. One researcher found 2-21% of CEOs could be considered psychopaths. A dictatorial approach incentivizes employees to cover up problems. Feedback should be transparent and continuous. Ranking feedback creates competition which undermines cooperation.
External Advisors: Rarely worth their cost. Management consultants’ advice is bland. Investment bankers will always recommend M&A. PR generates pointless press releases. Academics produce fragile, unverified results.
Future of Work: Automation will replace jobs, but not those involving manual dexterity or nuanced judgment. History suggests economies tend to keep creating jobs (democracies will react), and demographics (declining birthrate) benefits workers.
Rules of Thumb
Parkinson’s Law: Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.
Peter Principle: People are promoted to their level of incompetence.
Bartleby’s Law: 80% of the time of the 80% of people in meetings is wasted.
OSS’ Simple Sabotage Field Manual suggests: See that three people have to approve everything when one would do. Talk as frequently as possible and at great length. Give inefficient workers undeserved promotions.
-Walter Rosenberg (later Rudi Vrba) was among the first Jews to escape from Auschwitz-Birkenau. Born 1924 in Slovakia, escaped to Hungary before returning to Slovakia. Caught on the border and sent to Novaky, before being transferred to Majdanek and Auschwitz. Prisoner 44070 worked a litany of jobs, from the back-breaking gravel pits, to making skis at the German Equipment Works, to “Kanada” where he collected luggage from the victims after they made their way down the Judenrampe (bench of women squeezed toothpaste tubes looking for hidden diamonds). As assistant to the register for the mortuary, had mobility to see gas chamber and fire pit grave and knew the precise layout of the camp. Carefully monitored the number of trains, wagons, and point of origin, repeating each day to remember. Miraculously survived typhus outbreak because young, lucky, and well connected.
-Auschwitz was selected for his proximity to the railroads; it was later expanded to Birkenau. Jews who received letters for “resettlement” would arrive by train in cattle cars, where SS men would apologize for the poor conditions and act interested in their professions. During “selection,” promising workers (about 20%) would go to camp and the remainder were directed to march the mile or so to the “baths,” accompanied by a fake Red Cross truck. The gas chambers, tucked underneath a flower bed in a bucolic area, had fake shower heads, but once the doors closed was filled with odorless cyanide gas. Breathing or not, bodies were tossed into a truck to go the crematorium before being bulldozed and buried. The lies were designed carefully to ensure no commotion among the prisoners, who outnumbered guards 10:1. Kept conditions great in some sections of the camp to mislead Red Cross inspectors.
-Escapology: Bring knife, matches, salt, watch. No money, no meat. Tell no one. No movement in daylight, don’t try to run away. Specific security procedures meant SS would only search outer camp 72 hours following an absence at roll-call before returning to the inner perimeter at night. Walter and fellow Slovak Fred Wetzler hid in hiding spot under wood pile, covered in petrol-soaked tobacco to mislead dogs. Broke out April 1944 into the ‘Zone of Interest’ and guided around predictable Nazi patrols by two locals.
-Provided account Jewish leaders in Slovakia who compiled into a no-nonsense 32-page report. Tried spreading through Jewish and Catholic channels, eventually made it into Swiss newspaper and diplomatic channels. Allies declined to bomb Auschwitz (RAF refused day-time targets, US focused on military targets). Vrba focused on trying to save the 600,000 Jews of Hungary (for whom Nazis were expanding the camp); accused Kasztner of muffling report to not disrupt his own negotiations witih Nazis (paid $1.6M to free 1,700 well-off Jews). Still, the report did likely save the 200,000 Jews of Budapest. Rudi also participated in missions with the Slovak Resistance.
-After the war, became an academic in Prague, Israel, London, and Vancouver (US declined visa because of affiliation with the Czech Communist Party). Testified as a witness in several trials of Nazi war criminals, and served as a source for historians. Married a childhood friend (whose life he saved), but struggled with family life (daughter committed suicide). Became increasingly bitter, not just at Nazis but the “Zionists” and “Communists” who he felt complicit. Later in life, came to realize Allies knew of the atrocities earlier (non-Jewish Pole Jan Karski went undercover in camps and spoke to FDR in 1943) and even many Jews who “knew” refused to believe. Died 2006.
A writing guide for the 21st Century. Each generation perceives the next as degrading the language–and civilization with it. There is no governing body for usage (even lexicographers are intended to be responsive to societal usage), many arcane rules derived from obsolete Latin grammar and rivalries between historical poets. Good writers are avid readers.
Simple words are usually best although varied vocabulary can brighten mushy prose. An entity’s wording should not be varied when contrasting things, but is helpful when referred to multiple times in quick succession.
Fewer words is usually better, although the geometry of the sentence matters more than word count.
Good writing makes the reader feel smart, and takes advantage of their expectations of where to go next. Best to assume the reader knows less.
Good writing takes many drafts. The form in which thoughts occur to a writer is rarely the same form in which they can be absorbed by a reader.
The amount of verbage one devotes to a point should not be too far out of line with how central it is to the argument.
Avoid cliches, abstractions, jargon. Heavy phrases fit best at the end of a sentence (e.g. longest item on list goes last).
Passive tense is proven useful in certain cases because it lets the writer direct the reader’s gaze–like a cinematographer choosing the best camera angle.
When it sounds better, there is nothing wrote with: beginning a sentence with a conjunction, ending a sentence with a preposition, splitting an infinitive, using the “singular they,” or embracing former nouns as verbs (e.g. author, contact, gift, impact).
Hanlon’s Razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Collection of essays on mountaineering. In his own exquisite words:
EIGER DREAMS (Switzerland)
“The trickiest moves on any climb are the mental ones, the psychological gymnastics that keep terror in check”
“One of the differences between us was that Marc wanted very badly to climb the Eiger, while I wanted very badly only to have climbed the Eiger.”
“an intermittent roar that sounded like someone goosing the throttle of a Boeing 747.”
GILL (Colorado)
John Gill, mathematic professor who popularized bouldering as a sport in and of itself.
“He trained intensively on gymnastic apparatus when he wasn’t on the rocks, building strength to the point where he could chin himself while hanging from a single finger.”
VALDEZ ICE (Alaskan waterfall climbing)
“of the estimated 150,000 Americans who would call themselves serious mountaineers, at most one per cent of them climb frozen waterfalls on a regular basis.”
“my arms were called upon to support approximately eighty percent of my body weight for most of the thirty or forty minutes it took to ascend the pillar. The physical effort was roughly comparable to doing pull-ups from a chinning bar for half an hour straight, pausing at the top of each pull-up to hang from one arm and swing a two-pound hammer a couple of times with the other.”
At fifteen feet above a screw placement, Shelton could expect to fall about forty feet before his downward flight was arrested (15+15+10)
ON BEING TENTBOUND
“you risk finding yourself incarcerated in a tent, a hostage of the elements, for days and perhaps weeks at a time.”
“Boredom presents a very real, if insidious, peril….the human being, by and large, is a very bad companion for himself.”
“Survivors of grim wilderness trips overwhelmingly recommend avoiding hyperactive personalities.”
THE FLYBOYS OP TALKEETNA (Alaskan Glacier Flying)
“Alaska without airplanes would be as unthinkable as Iowa without corn.”
Work long hours for minimal pay to deliver or rescue climbers on planes with special wheel-ski landing gear.
CLUB DENALI (Alaska)
“only halfway up the 20,320-foot peak he could expect to find conditions more severe than those at the North Pole, with temperatures of forty below zero and winds that howled at 80 to 100 miles per hour for days and sometimes weeks at a stretch…one of the most hostile climates on Earth.”
Every summer the world’s foremost authority on high-altitude pathology sets up shop at 14,300 feet to conduct research into the mysterious ailments that afflict humans at altitude
“The West Buttress of McKinley, it is often said, has all the technical challenges of a long walk in the snow. That is more or less true, but it’s also true that if you should, say, trip on a bootlace at the wrong moment during that walk, you will probably die.”
CHAMONIX (France)
CANYONEERING (Slot canyons like the Zion Narrows)
“This [commercialized, crowded] canyon is plenty wild, I decided, but wilderness it ain’t.”
“Salome Jug ran for just half a mile from end to end, but what it lacked in scope was more than made up for by the intimacy and intensity of its wildness. The canyon was an utterly spellbinding slice of earth, like no place I had ever seen: The creek burbled by in a chain of long, skinny pools—tinted an astonishing shade of emerald by dissolved minerals—linked by a series of cascades ranging in height from mere inches to more than seventy feet; above this tableau shot walls of rose-colored granite sculpted into striking curves and sensuous angles, and polished smooth as a bowling ball.”
Fisher invented a tiny inflatable raft to float a pack in front of a swimmer.
A MOUNTAIN HIGHER THAN EVEREST? (Various debunked claims)
THE BURGESS BOYS (Twin Brothers)
“Aside from a few momentary lapses, the twins proudly point out, neither has held an honest job since 1975.”
Haven’t actually summited very often: “If climbers kept track of batting averages, Adrian would be hitting about .200 in the Himalayan Leagues, Alan a lowly .167.” They say because conservative climbers (those who die usually are pushing to meet outside pressure), others say they haven’t a clue how to organize an expedition.
A BAD SUMMER ON K2 (Pakistan/China)
“The most coveted prize on K2 was its striking South Pillar, huge and unclimbed, a”last great problem” that Messner had nicknamed “the Magic Line.” Soaring two vertical miles from glacier to summit, it demanded more steep, technical climbing at extreme altitude than anything previously done in the Himalaya.”
Four teams attempted in 1986, brutal weather meant one-in-five died (typically 1-in-30 people die in 8,000-meter peak attempts). Had to abandon a comatose leader in a tent at 26,000 feet.
“as the season wore on and the mountain prevailed, a number of these climbers quietly abandoned their previously ballyhooed principles and made free use of the ladder of ropes and tents the Koreans had erected on the Abruzzi.”
THE DEVILS THUMB (Alaska)
At age 23, quit construction job in Boulder to drive to Alaska and attempt the peak which captured his imagination since reading a mountaineering guide at age 8. Took 20 days and several tries before summiting.
Because soloing, tied perpendicular curtain rods to hopefully prevent falling through snow, but “My ten-foot curtain rods seemed a poor defense against crevasses that were forty feet across and two hundred fifty feet deep.”
“If we had some ham, we could have ham and eggs, if we had some eggs.”
“A madrigal of creaks and sharp reports—the sort of protests a large fir limb makes when it’s slowly bent to the breaking point—served as a reminder that it is the nature of glaciers to move, the habit of seracs to topple….Early on a difficult climb, especially a difficult solo climb, you’re hyperaware of the abyss pulling at your back. You constantly feel its call, its immense hunger. To resist takes a tremendous conscious effort; you don’t dare let your guard down for an instant. The siren song of the void puts you on edge, it makes your movements tentative, clumsy, herky-jerky. But as the climb goes on, you grow accustomed to the exposure, you get used to rubbing shoulders with doom, you come to believe in the reliability of your hands and feet and head. You learn to trust your self-control….The accrued guilt and clutter of day-to-day existence—the lapses of conscience, the unpaid bills, the bungled opportunities, the dust under the couch, the festering familial sores, the inescapable prison of your genes—all of it is temporarily forgotten, crowded from your thoughts by an overpowering clarity of purpose, and by the seriousness of the task at hand.”
Today’s presidency looks nothing like the framer’s vision of a humble executive who was above the fray, did not campaign for the job, was restrained in power, and managed a neat set of issues. It is now the most powerful and overburdened job on the planet.
Presidents must fight tooth and nail to win the job (even the famously restrained George HW Bush acknowledged the first step of leadership was winning power). Electoral College was a messy compromise of the Constitutional Convention; JFK among the first to benefit from primaries. Voters should assess character, policy, and how candidates would approach job, but instead focus on sound bites, controversy, and momentum shifts.
Executive power has grown steadily over time—as early as Jefferson’s Louisiana Purchase, though particularly under FDR’s New Deal. Congress has allowed this to happen as complex crises demand rapid responses. Still, presidents are usually unsuccessful at championing policies without pre-existing broad public support (even Lincoln and FDR understood the importance of patience).
Presidents have a broad and interminable list of matters to attend to, many arising on short notice (“if half your meetings are planned, that’s a good day”). Once elected, candidates quickly learn governing is nothing like campaigning, though today the “campaigning” never really stops. Reagan: “How could the president NOT be an actor?” LBJ started now compulsory visits to natural disaster sites after visiting Louisiana to win votes. Building an emotional bond with citizenry is an important aspect of the job. Eisenhower matrix useful for prioritization (urgent v. important; act, plan, delegate, delete).
Capture: Paris saw Madrid and Warsaw suffer aerial bombing and began securing Louvre artifacts in 1930s. Wehrmacht’s western advance was so fast it triggered mass civilian exodus south. They took 1.5M French POWs in just over a month (most sent to Germany and released in dribbles over the next few years as bargaining chips). To avert French surrender, Churchill offered to combine countries into a “Franco-British Union.” WWI hero Philippe Petain’s armistice with Germany was a political decision seen as temporary (until UK surrendered) and supported by some right-wing (anti-Communist) French. Hitler was intentionally conciliatory to prevent French leaders/Navy from fleeing to UK (as Charles de Gaulle did). Luftwaffe bombed industrial facilities in suburbs but left Paris mostly untouched. But insisted French government move 4hr south to Vichy (denied request for Versailles). Took Paris with no counterattacks, street fighting, or resistance (though purported sabotage of the Eiffel Tower’s elevator meant the Nazi flag had to carried up by hand). German spies had a detailed understanding of Paris and quickly occupied hotels and homes of the wealthy Jews. Picasso chose to stay in his left bank studio through the occupation.
Occupation: Hitler visited Paris once, two weeks after occupation. He admired its history but despised modern cities with their anti-nazis, Jews, mixed races, homosexuals, and modem artists. Contradictory, Germans celebrated French culture as tourists while also criticizing their decadence (e.g. while Gypsies were being murdered in Eastern Europe, they were entertaining SS officers in Paris). Administration was complicated and duplicative across the Vichy puppet government, the Reich’s ministry of foreign affairs, ministry of propaganda, Gestapo, and Wehrmacht who were all vying for influence in Berlin. For Germans, Paris was desirable R&R location–if also lonely. Among Parisians, occupation (which included an evening curfew) killed vibrancy and created a culture of suspicion. Began rounding up Jews mid-1941; enforced wearing yellow star in 1942. Major roundup done exclusively by French police; no uniformed German officers.
Resistance: Started with graffiti, small acts of disrespect. Less than 2% of French population was involved in the “Resistance”; had minimal effect until months leading up to D-Day (even then, many French criticized as foolhardy for triggering violent retributions). Gestapo remarkably effective at weeding out (received dozens of tips each day) and ruthless with arrests/executions.
Parisians passed time by journaling and tracking allied troop movements. Shortages of food and medicine meant long, stressful lines. De Gaulle’s BBC radio broadcasts had minimal political/military impact but gave young people a name to support. Paris offered a maze of streets/tunnels, public sites, and ports/stations for private meetings and easy escape. Ambushes of German soldiers did not become common until 1942.
Liberation: By 1944, the best Wehrmacht soldiers had been shipped to the Eastern front. After DDay, Germans were desperate to keep Paris (transportation hub, symbolic value). Eisenhower wasn’t overly impressed by the Free French or in a rush to liberate Paris. Paranoid Hitler wanted to bomb Paris landmarks but local Wermacht commander lacked manpower / explosives / desire. French Forces of Interior (FFI) insurrection broke out August 1944, followed by five days of fighting–including about 4,000 casualties. French forces arrived (using US equipment), German surrendered the city, Americans arrived. Some American GIs did loot and disrespect French culture, but also reminded the French what absolute freedom could be. Petain tried to take credit for liberation but de Gaulle was more effective. Violent and humiliating retribution against Vichy and Nazis collaborators (blurry line between collaboration and accommodation) continued for the next year. Particularly women who slept with Germans (although not prostitutes). Ensuing power struggle between communists, gaullists, and even some former Vichy supporters. Even today, French continue to place blame on who bears responsibility for allowing the occupation to happen.
As cycles of virality accelerate, creators now dominate the media landscape. Social media is a 24/7 reality show, delivered to young people in a format they’re far more interested in consuming than TV. How we got here:
-Blogs (“web logs”) originated in the 1990s when early internet users began sharing thoughts and links. “Mommy blogs” were distinctly personality-driven and original. By 2005, a blogger (Garrett Graff) received a White House press pass.
-MySpace launched in 2003 as a brazen clone of tech-challenged Friendster, but a much-adored glitch allowed users to personalize HTML code on their pages. Zuckerberg launched Facebook in 2004 as an alternative to the chaos, where users could cleanly recreate their physical networks online. Facebook introduced the News Feed in 2006, which laid the foundation for status-seeking.
-YouTube launched in 2005 and developed its “Partner Program” in 2007 to share 55% ad revenue with top creators, enabling higher-quality videos thus more ads. Creators also received promotional support, editorial outreach, and a dedicated sales team. Multichannel Networks (MCNs) bundled groups of creators together to collectively negotiate brand deals and business opportunities. In 2008, creators began receiving a “Klout Score” based on follower count, post frequency, and topics of interest.
-In 2007, Twitter dropped its “friends” feature, leaving only “followers,” attracting A-list stars like Ashton Kutcher. BuzzFeed and Mashable rose by harvesting the best work of creators and repackaging it for maximum virality on Facebook.
-Released in 2010, Instagram was easier for celebrities who found pictures easier than text. Instagram favored preserving a curated aesthetic to growth, rejecting a reshare button and initially refusing ads. However, advertisers found a side door by using affiliate marketing (influencers compensated for promoting brands). Once tacky, by 2018 sponsorships became a status symbol (creators even faked sponsored content). Management company Digital Brand Architects was acquired by United Talent Agency in 2019.
-Vine launched 2013 and introduced easy-to-use, mobile-first editing tools. Top Viners and stars like Justin Bieber congregated in houses in LA, but ultimately left after falling out with its executives. SnapChat launched 2013 and introduced Stories, mastered by DJ Khaled. There was also a boom in live-streaming apps like Justin.tv (now Twitch) and YouNow. Musical.ly (now TikTok) was acquired by ByteDance in 2017. It focused on Gen Z and innovated the “For You” page with a powerful AI-driven algorithm. Numerous “hype houses” arose around common themes.
-After the controversial 2016 election, advertiser boycotts depleted revenue as much as 80%. Influencers diversified to Patreon, merchandise, and direct subscription models (e.g. OnlyFans). $4B was raised for Clubhouse in 2021 but it flopped hard. Where traditional companies create a product first and find a way to market it, creators build an audience first and develop products tailored to their fans.
Background: After graduation from Purdue and 1944 discharge from Army for schizophrenia, Hamaas Abdul Khaalis (born Ernest McGhee) studied music in Chicago and learned Islam in the Harlem jazz scene. Nation of Islam (NOI) founder Fard Muhammad taught Islam was the original faith of Africans before they were kidnapped and enslaved, while the white race was the product of an ancient eugenics experiment which drained their pigment and also humanity. Fard’s successor, Elijah Muhammad promoted Khaalis to Chicago before they split (another acolyte, Malcom X, also split off over Muhammad’s extramarital affairs until 1965 murder by NOI). Khaalis mentored by Rahman who claimed supernatural powers passed down from the Prophet. Founded the Hanafi Movement in DC with right-hand man Aziz and tried to fund through bank robberies. After NOI recruited Muhammad Ali (Cassius Clay) as brand ambassador, Khaalis enlisted Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul Jabbar) to fund a move to a leafy DC neighborhood off 16th St. Khaalis took three wives (most sharia interpretations permit four). In 1973, NOI enlisted the Black Mafia from Philadelphia to kill Khaalis, but he wasn’t home so they brutally murdered seven of his wives and children. In drawn out legal proceedings, the government’s star witness flipped and one conviction was later declared mistrial. Amidst this, Khaalis pushed over the edge by poster for 1976 film Muhammad: Messenger of God (portrayals of the prophet forbidden).
Siege: On March 9 1977, Khaalis launched his retribution at three sites:
B’nai B’rith Jewish Organization (Scott Circle): Khaalis and six associates took about a hundred hostages on the eighth floor.
National Islamic Center (Massachusetts Ave): Three Hanafi brothers from Anacostia took 11 hostages, targeting Dr. Muhammad Rauf (Khaalis perceived rival).
District/Wilson Building (Federal Triangle): Two Hanafis took hostages on the fifth floor. They shot/killed security guard and reporter, and wounded future mayor Marion Berry.
Demands included pause of movie premiere (granted), $750 (granted), delivery of Black Mafia murderers (impossible), and delivery of NOI’s Wallace Muhammad. Khaalis painted over windows, handcuffed hostages, and enlisted hostage secretary to help manage contact with MPD command post, Hanafi complex (16th St), and over a hundred media requests/phone interviews. FBI quickly tapped all lines; had to manage Khaalis’ fits of rage and unexpected factors like ceremonial howitzers for UK State Visit. Carter considered using Special Forces, but preferred to keep a local issue.
Endgame: Khaalis agreed to meet the ambassadors of Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia in the lobby to raise his profile. For three hours, debated everything from the will of Allah to whether Zionists controlled media. When one suggested releasing 30 hostages as a sign of good will, Khaalis said, “Why don’t I release all of them?” Negotiated endgame in exchange for release following arrest. Jewish Defense League picketed Hanafi Center; tried to make peace with NOI. The jury found Khaalis and two gunmen from District Building guilty of second-degree murder and most received life in prison.
Legacy: The FBI began training police officials in hostage situations. Marion Barry became mayor two years later. Khaalis remained in control of Hanafis but lost control of Muslims to NOI; died in prison in 2003. The Hanafi Center still exists and holds communal prayers.
Our greatest leaders are neither dreamers nor dictators, they articulate national aspirations but also master the mechanics of influence. While Jefferson is sometimes portrayed as the aloof philosopher, his party held the Presidency for 36 of the years from 1800-46. He can be seen in all facets of the human experience—the thirst for knowledge, the capacity to create, the love of family and friends, the hunger for accomplishment, the applause of the world, the marshaling of power, and the bending of others to one’s own vision.
Early Life: At age 10, father Peter sent into the woods with a gun to prove he could survive on his own. Jefferson valued education above all else (said he’d take the classical education his father arranged over his estate). Jefferson considered William & Mary “the finest school of manors and morals that ever existed in America” (though after jilted love he called it “Devilsburg”). Joined FHC (“no useful purpose”) and befriended professors William Small (Enlightenment), George Wythe (law, finer things, poisoned), Governor Fauquier (violin), Governor Lord Botetourt. Helped create Virginia Gazette in 1766. VA House of Burgesses 1769-1775. Designed/built Monticello on a peak adjacent to childhood home Shadwell. Married rich widow Martha “Patty” from 1772 until her 1882 death (he honored her request not to remarry). Only two of their six children survived to adulthood. Gloated about home state in only book, Notes on the State of Virginia, written for a French audience.
Revolution: Perceived the US at war (hot or cold) with Britain from 1764 to 1815. From British history, Jefferson took political life to be a constant struggle to preserve individual liberty from encroachments of the crown (in his case taxes, British troops, trade regulations). There was also an economic driver: Virginia planters owed at least £2.3M to British merchants. Used religion to help make his case to others. About 20% of white American colonists were loyalists; many congregated in Canada. In 1774, authored Summary View of the Rights of British America, which raised his celebrity as far as London. In 1776, chosen to draft Declaration of Independence for both skill and political reasons (Virginia most populous, ensure Southern support). As VA Governor (1779-1781), fled from Williamsburg to Richmond to Monticello to Poplar Forest as redcoats overran disorganized VA militias. Although mostly helpless, Jefferson was left embittered by criticism and more open to a strong executive.
Articles of Confederation: Offered diplomatic position in France three times (declined first two on account of Patty’s health, third time John Jay completed Treaty before left). Represented Virginia for six months in Congress—the only institution created by the Article of Confederation—before finally going to Paris. Though accused of falling too hard for the French Revolution and its excesses, Jefferson always put America’s interests first (negotiating treaties, ghostwriting articles). Followed the Constitutional Convention as closely as possible (information is power). Quote to Adams “The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants” was intended to push back on specific calls for a semi-monarch and Jefferson acknowledged he was being hyperbolic. Jefferson’s other claims that the constitution naturally expires every 19 years (the Jeffersonian definition of a generation) can be attributed to the churnings of an eager mind in a time of change, divorced from his deeper pragmatism. During the French Revolution, Jefferson’s house was robbed three times and he lost friends to the guillotine.
Washington/Adams Administrations: Jefferson exaggerated the threat of monarchy, but did not invent it (many federalists sympathetic to lifelong tenure and/or king). Americans started sympathetic to French Revolution, but split as it became bloodier. Jefferson declined Washington’s orders to Paris and resigned near the end of his second term, where he led the opposition from Monticello, working through James Madison and Monroe. Seized on public opinion against overly generous terms of Jay Treaty with Britain. Second-place finish in 1797 election thrust Jefferson to the Vice Presidency, though spent most time tending to the construction of the Republican opposition (secretly drafted resolutions protesting the Alien and Sedition Acts).
Presidency: Once a Republican ally, Aaron Burr emerged as a threat, achieving electoral tie. Principled Jefferson refused Adams’ offers for tie-breaking votes in exchange for commitment to certain Federalist policies. With reluctant endorsement from Hamilton, Jefferson emerged victorious from House of Representatives on 36th ballot. First inaugural was political masterpiece on freedoms, though Jefferson consistently maintained or expanded executive authority. Changes included reducing federal taxes and spending, suppressing courts (John Marshall was a Federalist), and allowing states to lead domestic affairs. Saw strategic value of New Orleans and dispatched Monroe to France to quickly secure Louisiana Purchase from Napoleon for $0.03/acre (then put pragmatism above principle by arguing against need for Constitutional Amendment). After killing Hamilton, Burr tried to lead a revolt of the Western states, but Jefferson pursued and brought to trial in Richmond (acquitted on treason as Jefferson claimed executive privilege against testifying). His embargo against Britain criticized for merely delaying war, though perhaps the least bad option. Dispatched personal secretary Lewis (and Clark) on expedition while laying groundwork for tragic Indian removal policies. Lived alone in the White House working 10-13 hour days and hosting dinner guests, dressing as a plain farmer wearing slippers. While President, wrote a 46-page work entitled The Philosophy of Jesus of Nazareth extracted from the account of his life and doctrines as given by Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John.
Post-Presidency: The making of UVA was his last great effort; installed a telescope at Monticello to monitor construction. Jefferson carried a notebook to log daily expenditures, and never tired of inventions, designing dumbwaiters at Monticello. Despising silence, he kept pet mockingbirds in the White House and Monticello. Suffered, particularly in times of stress, from debilitating headaches and diarrhea. With age, tempered earlier radicalism: “I am certainly not an advocate for frequent and untried changes in laws and constitutions…but I know also that laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind….we might as well require a man to wear still the coat which fitted him when a boy, as civilized society to remain ever under the regimen of their barbarous ancestors.” Rather than railing against religion, sought to apply reason to questions of faith. Helped his mentee formulate the Monroe Doctrine (opposing European intervention in the Western Hemisphere). Died (with Adams) on July 4, 1826. Designed own tombstone featuring: author of Declaration of Independence and VA Statute for Religious Liberty; founder UVA. In $1-2million of debt, Monticello was sold. Per agreement, Hemings were freed.
Slavery/Sally Hemings: Jefferson owned ~200 slaves at any given time, and frequently embodied the slave-owning interest. He viewed abolition as an eventuality for future generations, not a reality he would ever see or an issue worth his political capital (also emancipation would significantly expand national power). Explored mass deportation to Sierra Leone because inconceivable whites and blacks could live together peacefully (even though he created one at Monticello). In government, he feared a slave insurrection just as much as external enemies. Federalists ironically disparaged Jefferson as the “Negro President” because benefited from three-fifths clause. Rendering moral judgments in retrospect is hazardous, although some Virginians of Jefferson’s class began freeing slaves in the 1790s. The man who believed in the acquisition and wielding of power, chose to consider himself powerless over the central economic and social fact of his life.
Sally Hemings was Jefferson’s father-in-law’s concubine’s daughter (not uncommon but rarely discussed). She was Jefferson’s wife’s half sister who was the age of his oldest daughter. The emotional content of their relationship (e.g. genuine lovers or institutionalize rape) is a mystery and may have changed over the years. Jefferson was seemingly able to view his six children with Sally Hemings as slaves even as they grew up in his midst.
Approach/Style: Cultivated his elders, made himself pleasant to contemporaries, and used his pen and intelligence to shape the debate. Found direct oral arguments counterproductive. Embraced power subtly but surely, hiding his own role in accumulating power. Often sought middle-ground, and had patience knowing time resolved most crises. Devoted to the stage and anxious for applause, but feared failure and disapproval. Key relationships:
Early acquaintance of Washington, respected his courage and leadership though believed his mind “slow in operation, being little aided by invention or imagination, but sure in conclusion.” Uncomfortable with his regal Presidential style (bows, carriage).
Adams eight years older, five inches shorter, New Englander, mercurial. Lived through so much together (war, Europe, cabinet), few others could have understood. The passions of the 1790s drove them apart but resumed magnificent correspondence in 1812 (“you and I ought not to die before we have explained ourselves to each other”).
Hamilton’s policies came to represent the monarchy Jefferson feared, though personal rivalry started accidentally with a misinterpretation of a leaked note from Jefferson on a Thomas Paine book. They found compromise (e.g. National Bank for DC Capital) and in his later years Jefferson placed a bust of Hamilton in Monticello.
“The virtues of civility are the most required when they are the least convenient.”
“The surest way to win a friend is not to convince them you are right, but that you care what they think.”
“He knew, though, that life was best lived among friends in the pursuit of large causes, understanding that pain was the price for anything worth having.”
-German military intelligence Abwher sent ~126 spies to England to infiltrate and prepare for an invasion, but almost none escaped detection by Bletchley Park (Ultra). Most were imprisoned, ~13 executed, and 24 recruited as double agents (book focuses on: Polish patriot triple agent BRUTUS, profligate Peruvian gambler BRONX, French dog lover TREASURE, dodgy German businessman ARTIST, Serbian playboy TRICYCLE, and Spanish chicken farmer GARBO). In January 1941, the UK established Twenty Committee (XX, or “Double Cross”) under T.A. Robinson with intelligence directors from each branch armed services, MI5, MI6, Home Forces, and Home Defense to coordinate “chicken feed” DAs were reporting.
To reduce suspicion on others, tried to run one German spy as an obvious DA (putting sloppy hints in letters), but Germans never picked up on it.
By summer 1942, began focusing on trying to influence German strategy, beginning with rumors of Norway invasion to distract from Op Torch in North Africa.
In August 1943, built a 30-ship mock invasion force from France, but the Germans barely noticed. Embarrassing, but yielded lessons (deception would require large scale, every branch, real invasion at same time).
Op Fortitude messaged a decoy assault on Normandy followed by full invasions in Norway and Pas de Calais. Numerous elements of deception beyond Double Cross, including an actor to portray General Montgomery in Gibraltar, sending General Patton to Dover. A month before D-Day, one DA was kidnapped to Berlin (shady financial dealings) and Robinson learned another had created a secret distress signal to German handler (retribution for Brits refusing to smuggle dog sans quarantine). But reassured 5 days before D-Day, when intercepted Japanese diplomatic cable quoted Hitler saying major attack would be Pas de Calais. Not only were German commanders wholly unprepared June 6, but since the Normandy attack was judged to be a deception, nobody woke up Hitler (who stayed up late the night before discussing films). After the landing, DAs continued messaging (a month after D-Day, some 22 Panzer divisions remained in Pas de Calais). Many Germans assumed plans had just changed, and one DA won a German Iron Cross award.
-Any defection could have crumbled system, constant concerns Germans could read reporting “in reverse” (knowing what Brits wanted them to know). Well-placed Soviet mole shared everything with Stalin. Some rivalries between MI5 and MI6 to handle agents. FBI/Hoover initially opposed DAs but quickly became good at them.
-Pigeons: MI5 created a the Pigeon Service Special Section B3C under pigeon fanatic Richard Walker. He studied their capabilities, logged suspicious sightings, and established a falcon unit to hunt German pigeons (they got 23, but all were British). Brits dropped boxes of pigeons with questionnaires about German defenses, hoping a loyalist would complete and return. For Op Fortitude, released 350 pigeons disguised as German into France-based German rings to generate confusion (largely failed).
Cancel Culture: the uptick beginning around 2014 of campaigns to get people fired, disinvited, deplatformed, or otherwise punished for speech that is protected by First Amendment standards (found about 1,000 examples, 2/3 of which successful). Some people should be torn down (e.g. Harvey Weinstein). But just because someone is “bad” by one measure doesn’t mean they intended bad or all their ideas are bad. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion; attack the argument, not the person. First Amendment doesn’t protect threats, incitements, defamation, but other offensive speech is still protected speech.
Campuses: As trigger warnings and micro aggressions emerged in the early 2000s, colleges became more expensive, bureaucratized, politically correct, and ideologically homogenous. Authors similarly decry efforts on the right to ban books and critical race theory. Also provides “case studies” from Journalism, Medicine, Publishing, and Comedy.
Parenting Suggestions: Keep them off social media as long as possible. Continually remind them the golden rule (“do unto others as you would like to them to do unto you”). Allow unsupervised play time, which teaches them to resolve interpersonal conflicts. Encourage them to stand up for their friends even when it entails social or reputational risk. Teach them about myriad of differences between people and that it’s ok to disagree. Model how to listen, think about things critically, and try to understand other people. If someone calls you petty names, respond with “Noted, now let’s get back to the actual issue.”
Current white supremacist movement contains a unique blend of (1) legacy robe-wearing actors (2) concert-going skinheads, and (3) online radicals (focus of book). Today’s terrorists— particularly, the ones carrying out mass-casualty attacks-aren’t joining groups. They’re joining movements, communities, and reactionary cultural currents that are impossible to designate as terrorist entities: incels, misogyny, or chan board Nazism.
Major Recent Far-Right Attacks:
22 July 2011, Anders Breivik, Liberal Camp NOR (77 killed), Stormfront, Great Replacement
13 April 2014, Frazier Glenn Miller, Overland Park Synagogue KS (3)
27 October 2018, Robert Bowers, Tree of Life Synagogue PA (11), Gab, “screw your optics, I’m going in”
15 March 2019, Brenton Tarrant, Christchurch Mosques NZ (51), 8chan/Facebook, Accelerationism, first”Saint”
27 April 2019, John Earnest, Poway Mosque Arson, Synagogue Shooting CA (0), 8chan, privileged piano player
3 August 2019, Patrick Crusius, El Paso Walmart (22), 8chan
10 August 2019, Philip Manshaus, Al-Noor Mosque NOR (0), EndChan
9 October 2019, Stephan Balliet, Halle Synagogue GER (2), Telegram/Twitch, Incel-crossover
Each attack generates more propaganda (DT & IT symbiotic both in borrowing tactics as well as justifying race war). Radicalization often occurs to “normal” people who undergo a “triggering event.”
Platforms: Telegram emerged 2015 and quickly became a favorite tool for jihadists. Telegram partnered with Europol’s Internet Referral Unit and purged most account Nov 2019 (and continue to take down ISIS/AQ accounts with”laser-focused efficiency”). However, it has been much more lax moderating “domestic terrorism” ideologies. After Christchurch, RMVEs followed suit migrating from 8chan to Telegram. Feuerkrieg Division (FKD) emerged for aggressive fedposting, doxing, and recruitment. It dissolved Feb 2020 after arrest of 13yo Estonian “commander,” but built large audience and laid blueprint for “siege cells” (e.g. Moonkrieg Division). Foundation for TERRORGRAM collective. Better moderation on mainstream platforms drove fragmentation to alternate platforms:
Reddit’s The_Donald to Donald.Win to Patriots.Win
WeGo created 2017 specifically for QAnon
8chan shut down after El Paso shooting but relaunched as 8kun
Others: Parler, Gab, BitChute (~YouTube), Gettr (~Twitter), Odysee, Rumble
Far Right 2.0: Unique circumstances of BLM/Antifa protests and Trump Election broadened the far-right umbrella so that RMVEs now found common cause with “saint” Kyle Rittenhouse (previously would’ve been dismissed as “MAGAtard”). Tension built through 2020 until many were itching for civil war, and genuinely believed Trump’s tweets them permission. 6 Jan 2021 wasn’t intelligence failure (SITE provided 24+ warnings, many shared widely), but rather failure to act.
Solution: Tech companies, with prodding from government, need to take down extremists platforms as they emerge. Diminished influence of ISIS shows it’s possible. Extensive case law makes clear the First Amendment does not protect incitements to riot or carry out “imminent lawless action.”
Summer 2020 Unrest: Over 1000 law enforcement injured; 2 killed. Mostly handled by local LE, though FBI brought ~300 cases. AG Barr tried to focus DOJ on “antifa.”
2020 Election: 1982 RNC voter intimidation resulted in consent decree legally prohibiting it from monitoring polling places until 2020. Chaotic Detroit TCF Center counting location had hundreds of “watchers” from left and right scuffling with police. Barr fired, Stone/Alexander dusted off #StoptheSteal from 2016, Powell/Giuliani pushed Venezuela conspiracies, Raffensperger call, and militias (OK, PB, B Squad) began formulating plans.
Lead up to Jan 6: FBI intelligence products limited by rules/norms and self-preservation (2009 DHS memo cautionary tale). Despite warnings by MEMRI DTTM, NTIC, SITE, FBI overreliant on CHSs and analyzed each social media post individually, closing those which didn’t meet specific criteria (“fighting a great fire one tree at time”). Constant drumbeat of threats resulted in “boiled frog.” Most concern was around clashes with counter-protestors and 20 Jan Inauguration. On 1 Jan, switched from DataMinr to ZeroFox. On 3 Jan, FBI was tracking 4 subjects traveling to DC, 16 Guardians. On 5 Jan, NTOC tips tripled. Distractions from Nashville bombing, Jeff Clark attempted coup, February Miami killings.
Jan 6: ADD Bowdich overruled WFO ADIC D’Antuono, demanding command post at WFO. MPD was best prepared in terms of number of people and equipment. One rioter made $90K licensing his high quality footage to at least 6 networks. One rioter shot, one trampled, another committed suicide awaiting trial. Reilly includes stories of several dozen rioters.
Aftermath: Siege was clearly an act of domestic terrorism, but individual defendants had a wide range of conduct that day. Capitol’s rush to clean up/resume business removed much physical evidence, but attack generated some four million videos and hundreds of thousands of tips. Goofs: interviewed wrong John Richter, wrong couple. USAO called in help from around the country, dialing in remotely for hearings and flying in for trials. By 2-year mark, settled on only charging those who caused violence/damage or went inside. Deloitte’s antiquated “Relativity” system for discovery could cost $26M.
Online Sleuths: Network began forming online (many voted for Trump but were outraged by conduct.) Generated nicknames organized through sedition hunters app. Had better search capabilities, communication tools, and fewer discovery concerns than LE. One used bumble to get rioters to confess. Provided real-time videos to support sentencings and Rehl trial. Frustrated FBI couldn’t give updates on investigations.
-Contrary to popular belief, FBI is disproportionately white, make, fmr LE/military and leans conservative. Some agents opposed either for political reason or just frustration being pulled off other cases to work misdemeanors. Steve Friend and Kyle Seraphin were poor performers who saw opportunity to become conservative media personalities. MPD officer Shane Lamond was playing both sides, warning Tarrio of LE focus and Tarrio’s arrest.
-Russia has banned Jack Smith, Matt Graves, David Sundberg, Paul Abbate from Russia for their role in prosecutions.
Status to date: ~3000 insiders. 1069 arrests. 335 incarcerations. Statute of limitations expires 6 Jan 2026.
Mafia: Carl Norden developed bomb sight on Navy contract, used 64 “algorithms” (including accounting for the rotation of the earth). “Bomber Mafia” emerged from the Army Air Corps Tactical School at Maxwell Air Field in Montgomery, Alabama. Leaders like Harold George and Ira Eaker proposed high altitude daylight precision bombing on enemy choke points (e.g. German ball bearing factories). Quixotic, lofty General Haywood Hansell championed in WWII.
Opponents: Frederick Lindemann convinced Churchill to use nighttime “area bombing” (even though hadn’t worked for Nazis in battle of Britain). Arrogant, relentless General Curtis LeMay invented box formations and nixed evasive maneuvers (which reduced accuracy). In 1942, A handful of chemists at Harvard studying combustible gels invented naphthenate palmitate (napalm). Japanese cities were uniquely vulnerable (narrow street, wooden houses, straw mats). Conducted tests on fake cities in Utah desert.
Result: Hansell remained in charge through shift to Pacific theater but raids on Japan from Marianas and Calcutta had range and accuracy issues (clouds, Himalayas “bump”, jet stream) even with new B-29 Superfortresses. LeMay replaced Hansell January 1945 and instituted low, night assaults using napalm. In six hours on March 9, firebombing killed 100K people in Tokyo, followed by several other cities (continuing until surrender five days after Nagasaki). Proceeded without any of the moral deliberations of the atomic bombs.
In 2009 Obama signed on to a UN protocol banning incendiary weapons. Precision munitions today are accurate to the foot.
Washington Post’s beat reporter on the Nationals’ improbable 2019 season in which the oldest team in the league survived five postseason elimination games despite trailing in each one, brought the first title to DC since 1924, and became the first team to take a World Series with four road victories.
-Background: Upon 2005 arrival, corporate offices were in two double-wide trailers outside RFK. Employees relieved themselves in porta-potties and ate pizzas in the parking lot. Moved to Waterfront stadium in 2008, Strasburg debuted 2010, Harper debuted 2012. Playoff heartbreak in 2012 (Strasburg shut down, Storen allowed four 9th inning runs to Cardinals), 2017 (Wieters bad interference call against Cubs).
-General Manager Mike Rizzo, who was Arizona’s scouting director when they won behind Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, sought to build teams around their rotation. Promoted to Nats GM in 2009 after predecessor resigned over fake age scandal at Nationals’ Dominican academy. 2019 pre-season media swirled around Bryce Harper, who wanted a lifetime contract with no deferrals, but Rizzo focused on wooing Patrick Corbin. At the trade deadline, scooped Hunter Strickland and Daniel Hudson (never wanted to be closer but Doolittle was overworked).
-Player-friendly coach Dave Martinez tried to change the culture in 2018 by bringing camels to spring training to “get over the hump,” but the gimmick was panned on social media and led to angry letters from PETA. In September 2019, soon after returning from hospitalization for a cardiac catheterization, Martinez met with the team’s director of mental conditioning to come up with a slogan, settling on “Stay in the Fight.” After pennant: “Often bumpy roads lead to beautiful places.”
-Regular Season: Early season was devastated by injuries: Turner (finger), Rendon (elbow), Zimmerman (foot), Soto (back spasms), Scherzer (broke nose on freak bunt accident). Nats bullpen was a disaster from start (5.66 regular season ERA), ate $9M in releasing disastrous Trevor Rosenthal. To save overtaxed arms in a blowout, let Parra and Dozier pitch. Parra lightened clubhouse with techno music, mandatory homerun dances (including Strasburg), sunglasses, and baby shark.
Wild Card/Brewers: Soto was told to look for a high fastball from Hader, and don’t miss it; lucky bounce past right fielder.
NLDS/Dodgers: Martinez used Strasburg out of bullpen, Roberts too much faith in Clayton Kershaw, Howie Kendrick won on 10th inning grand slam.
NLCS/Cardinals: Nationals advance scouts identified Cards expected to be pitched outside, leaving them susceptible to inside pitches with good sequencing; starters blanked across 21 innings. Strasburg: “You have a great year, and you can run into a buzz saw. Maybe this year we’re the buzz saw.”
World Series/Astros: Teams with 6+ days rest had been 0-4 in WS, Martinez used each evening for simulated games to stay ready for prime time. Clash of “traditional” Nats v. “analytics-based” Astros. Zimmerman’s homerun meant Nats’ first World Series run was scored by its first-ever draft pick. Astros staff lacked lefty, which allowed Soto to thrive (shuffles/mind games with Cole, Verlander, Greinke). Astros distracted by A/GM Taubman shouting support for Osuna; Nats tried to avoid Trump’s Game 5 attendance. Scherzer missed Game 5 for neck spasms. Game 6, Soto mocked Bregman’s trot and Turner called out on bad interference judgment call (Rendon HR made moot). Game 7, Kendrick put ahead with 2-run HR off foul pole, to delight of 13K fans in the rain at Nats Park watching on jumbotron.
In the 7th inning or later of elimination games, Rendon had two homers, three doubles, a single, and walk. Strasburg became the first pitcher to go 5-0 in the same postseason with a career playoff ERA of 1.46. Celebrated at Capitals game and parade, though COVID meant never got to see World Series banner raised or receive rings together.
In 1993, El Chapo (“Shorty”) was sent to jail for the brazen murder of a Roman Catholic Cardinal, but 8 years later escaped from prison in a laundry cart after paying off his jailers.
FBI NYFO recruited Guzman’s communication technician Christian Rodriguez, who had installed secure networks for Blackberries and iPhones (and FlexiSPY software for Guzman to spy on subordinates/mistresses). Worked through servers in Netherlands, Canada, US. Closed in on Cabo, but geolocation was off and stormed the wrong house.
DEA Special Ops Division agent chaired USG coalition involving three DEA/HSI separate wiretaps from Chicago, San Diego, and Nogales, AZ. Analysts began to decipher coded language sophisticated tiered communication. Used CHS to turn Blackberry Messenger (BBM) PINs into phone numbers which could be geolocated. Arrests required Mexican partners, DEA preferred police, FBI/CIA preferred army, marshals preferred Marines. Operation “Duck Dynasty” was leaked before the Marines arrived. Capture of errand boy led to home near Culiacan baseball stadium but Guzman escaped through tunnels connected to bathtub. But relocated and arrested at Hotel Miramar in Mazatlan.
In prison, Guzman was monitored on CCTV but communicated with lawyer, wife, and chief of staff through letters (including ordering hits). Lawyer orchestrated construction of mile-long tunnel from warehouse to Guzman’s cell shower. Under cover of loud show playing on tablet, Guzman descended 30-ft ladder, rode motor-powered rail car, hopped waiting ATV, truck, and biplane.
DEA reassembled the coalition with greater involvement from NSA and named “Third Strike.” Embarrassed, Mexican intelligence (CISEN) was motivated and now had access to Israeli technology Pegasus.
Days before a planned raid, US Embassy learned Sean Penn was meeting Guzman to interview for Rolling Stones and discuss a biopic (weather would’ve mitigated anyway). Chapo escaped Marine perimeter (supposedly on donkey with broken horse), but fled to a house which undercovers had been monitoring in Los Mochis. Escaped that home not through decoy tunnel under fridge but a real one behind a closet mirror. Finally re-arrested in a car nearby.
Insistent on extradition, US navigated numerous political and legal hurdles before secretly flying to NYC. Blockbuster trial began day of Trump inauguration (closed Brooklyn Bridge each day for transport). Guilty on all counts, sentenced to life imprisonment in Colorado supermax.
Guzman started his career at an auspicious moment in 1980s: US cocaine demand was peaking, predecessor was arrested, NAFTA eased border smuggling. An early mentor of Guzman nearly killed the organization’s entire senior leadership by misfiring a bazooka. Like any CEO, Guzman was inundated by messages about projects ranging from a new meth lab in Ecuador to a load of cocaine in transit from an airstrip in Belize. One of the top ten criminals in history, smuggled nearly a million kilograms of drugs across the border and helped plunge Mexico into its bloodiest era since the Revolution.
Colorful collection of anecdotes organized around themes (travel, protocol, diplomacy, celebrity encounters, pranks, faux paus)
Protocol tidbits:
Never drink at toast where you’re being honored
Wear name tag on right side so visible when shaking hands
If something can be easily fixed (e.g. spinach in teeth), tell the person. If not (stain in necktie), don’t.
American flag goes to viewers’ left (remainder in alphabetical order)
Keep introductions short (full resume can go in written program)
When speaking, do something to make yourself memorable (e.g. prop or picture)
“Make me smart”
Notable Anecdotes:
Powell hosted monthly lunch with VP Cheney, ANSA Rice, SecDef Rumsfeld in formal Monroe room with black tie waters who lifted silver domes to reveal paper bags with PB&J/chips.
Powell used Leslie as dummy to teach Tom Selleck how to do the Heimlich Maneuver. Would try to run away from her.
Accept and Acknowledge Their Feelings
Instead of Punishing, Encourage Cooperation
Explain why bad behavior is problematic and how it makes you feel
Brainstorm solutions with your child
Encourage Autonomy and Self-Confidence
Praise enough to build self-esteem, but not entitlement.
Give kids a menu of options and respect their struggle. Give specific compliments and appreciate their work and effort rather than their traits.
Don’t paper over complex questions or make up answers.
Roger Bannister—a young English medical student—John Landy—the well-heeled Australian—and Wes Santee—the Kansas farm boy—competed to run a mile in under four minutes.
All three failed at 1952 Helsinki Olympics, leaving them with need to redeem themselves. Bannister declined invitation to 1948 London Games (where UK was embarrassed with only three gold medals) but undertrained for 1952 (added semifinal). Landy paid his way onto the team but legs fell short. US Amateur Athletic Union (AAU) rules put up Santee for the 5000m instead of his stronger 1500m (~1mile) race.
Landy, an agricultural student, trained at an incessant pace at night and posted 4:02 at the Australian championships. In addition to training and his medical rounds at the hospital, Bannister had a scholarship to conduct research on the physiological effects of running (put subjects on an inclined treadmill with limited oxygen and ran them until they collapsed). Because of his pulse and lungs, Bannister operated 50% more efficiently than the average male. Santee enrolled in Marines ROTC to avoid being drafted to Korea. Despite a good coach at KU, his team obligations limited good opportunities to set mile record. Constantly sparing with the AAU over race schedule and receipt of gifts/travel assistance, Santee was caught in a world where amateur officials were losing control to rising professional athletes.
Bannister’s 4:02 British record was rejected because he used two pacers which didn’t finish the race and the event wasn’t advertised prior. Decided to take on coach Franz Stampfl, an Austrian who fled the Nazis to join the RAF but was detained as “enemy alien,” shipped to Australia on boat sunk by U-boat, survived and returned to London after the War. On 6 May at Oxford University, when strong winds died down minutes before the race, Bannister ran 3:59.4. Just 46 days later, Landy bested with 3:57.9. Santee missed the 4-minute barrier by tenths of a second multiple times, before being sent to USMC boot camp.
Bannister and Landy competed for the first time since Helsinki in the much-anticipated British Empire Games in Vancouver 7 August 1954. Whereas Landy was a “front-runner,” Bannister preferred to stay “in contact” until the bell of the final lap and win with a “kick.” The night before, Landy stepped on a photographer’s flash bulb and went to the ER twice, but refused to tell anyone. Bannister had a chest cold. In an epic “Miracle Mile” race televised around the world, both ran sub-4 but Bannister overcome Landy on the last lap.
Of interest:
Roman soldiers invented mile as mille passus (one thousand two-step strides).
In the 1800s, the general public believed too much exercise led to untimely death (some physicists believed humans had a set amount of heartbeats).
Groundskeepers spread petrol over the track and lit hundreds of small fires to burn rain water off.
Perfect conditions: some nervous energy but relaxed mental outlook, skillful pacing, level track with “life” in it, temperature below 80° with low humidity/winds. Eliminate unnecessary movement and run at an even pace.
Born India, grew up in affluent Southern California suburbs, PhD student in sociology at University of Chicago. When naively knocking on doors, befriended Black Kings gang leader J.T who grew up in 28-building Robert Taylor apartment complex. J.T. attended college on athletic scholarship, got a white-collar job, but felt discriminated against and returned to gang life to make ~$75K/year. Venkatesh visited consistently for about six years under the rouse of writing J.T.’s “biography,” then completed a Harvard Fellowship and taught at Columbia.
In Robert Taylor apartments, officially, 96% were unemployed and fewer than 40% of the adults had graduated high school. Crack use was similar to alcohol use in the suburbs—there was a small group of hard- core addicts and a larger group of occasional users.
Black Kings were a regional gang with a board of directors (~$200K+/year) which lived in the suburbs. Under local leaders like J.T. (~$75K), there were a few officers (treasurer, enforcers, security coordinator) and directors (~$30K) which managed six-person teams of foot soldiers (~minimum wage) which sold crack.
Stairwells were the one public area gangs allowed drug addicts and homeless to squat for a small fee (where most of the foot soldiers’ income came from).
J.T. kept his own roster of informants in the neighborhood to stay informed. He enforced discipline/status through physical beatings and adjudicated disagreements by withholding payment.
Wars typically resulted when one gang tried to infringe on another’s sales location, or did a drive-by shooting to try to scare off customers. But gangs don’t just fight each other; they had basketball tournaments and card games.
The gang worked with various aldermen and community-based organizations to keep violence down (bad for profits). Religious leaders and police officers helped mediate disputes between gangs. Police mostly focused on maintaining status quo but corrupt officers would periodically rob gang to line their own pockets (also broke into Venkatesh’s car for his notebooks).
Prostitutes were better off working for a pimp (“affiliates”) because they made more and were beat up less than the “independents.” People peed on their own stairwells to keep prostitutes from assembling there at night.
During a teacher strike, Venkatesh tried teaching classes but quickly lost control of classroom. Also tried writing a DOJ grant proposal for youth programs.
JEH third generation public servant (two generations Coast Survey), heavily influenced by Teddy Roosevelt’s “rigorous masculinity.” Maintained detailed journal and published childhood newspaper. Brown-nosed teachers and earned high marks in high school. Overcame stutter on debate team with fast-paced, clipped speech. Adored discipline from Cadet Corps. Learned abstinence from Presbyterian pastor. Kappa Alpha fraternity taught “Lost Cause” narrative and President Wilson normalized segregation. Embraced indexing from Library of Congress clerkship.
Entered wartime DoJ in 1917 working German internments and registration. In 1919, following wave of anarchist bombings (including AG Palmer’s home), climbed to power in DoJ radicalization office. Celebrated for deportation of anarchist Emma Goldman but overstepped with raids/attempted deportation of thousands of alleged communists. Nonetheless, named deputy director of Bureau of Investigation (founded 1908) during Harding Administration and survived subsequent Teapot Dome scandals. Joined Freemasons, which fit desire for ritual, secrecy, and hierarchy. Became acting, then permanent Director in 1924 at age 29, leading 600 people. Championed scientific policing and administrative efficiency. Created identification (fingerprints) division and strict personnel policies. Wisely declined Prohibition enforcement (destined to fail) and focused on crime statistics to build partnerships with locals. Initially opposed arming agents but quickly embraced shoot on sight orders and hard nose interviewing tactics following the loss of several agents in pursuit of the Dillinger gang (Kansas City Massacre, Little Bohemia).
To help sell New Deal government, FDR encouraged FBI (renamed 1935) public relations blitz resulting in books, movies, shows, articles, speeches which built Hoover’s celebrity. FDR also secretly empowered him to begin collecting on both domestic fascists and communists, which positioned for counterintelligence mission during WWII (including operations in South America). FDR may have given FBI foreign intelligence too but Truman may have held grudge against the FBI for charges against Prendergast machine. JEH perpetuated Red Scare, but viewed Sen. McCarthy/House un-American Activities Committee as rival, focusing on institutional power (liaisons with Senate Subcommittee on Internal Security, state/locals and American Legion) instead of splashy hearings. Unsurprisingly much less outspoken about Lavender Scare (homosexuals), turning over lists of suspected gays to the civil service commission but opposing the use of lie detectors to interrogate.
1950s (Eisenhower, Army-McCarthy hearings, anti-communist legislation) represented JEH’s peak popularity and power. COINTELPRO began as a small program against communists but went beyond surveillance to active subversion of movements (e.g. forged letters and informants). Contrary to popular belief, JEH did brief controversial program to AG and Congress in closed testimony. In Operation Solo 1958, FBI recruited informant Morris Childs who was selected to liaise between Kremlin and CPUSA, uncovering significant financial support. On public front, Crime Records wrote Masters of Deceit compiling knowledge of Communists and JEH worldview. Promoted by field offices, distributed to all American Legion members, sold 2M copies (Hoover/Tolson apparently pocketed half profits).
JEH’s goodwill ran out in the 1960s as he clung to conservative values in a changing society. Despite mandatory retirement at age 70, Hoover was kept in power by his ideological ally Nixon and longtime neighbor LBJ. Clashed constantly with Bobby Kennedy in both style and substance. JEH refused to protect Freedom Riders, leaving their protection to racist local police. Became the rare bureaucrat celebrated by William Buckley’s “new right.” MLK investigation began with reasonable predication (advisors Stanley levison, O’Donnell connected to at least CPUSA and potentially Kremlin). But JEH permitted egregious oversteps (anonymous letters, public attacks) due to furor over perception of MLK’s moral superiority despite failings (affairs/orgies). In 1960s, took on the worst crime wave since the 1930s by creating NCIC, crime commission, and expanding the National Academy. Sabotage of KKK successfully dismantled the group (although FBI informant creating controversy by himself at multiple crime scenes). COINTELPRO was pushed furthest against New Left revolutionaries (particularly Black Panthers) to include cartoons/media campaigns, pretext phone calls, intimidation of landlords/employers/donors, and rumor spreading (tragically including the harassment of pregnant actress Jean Seberg’s, causing premature birth and eventually suicide).
In 1970s, JEH pushed back on Nixon’s plans for massive wire tapping (Houston Plan), as well as a political liability (especially after burglary at Media, PA RA revealed COINTELPRO). Nixon created the Plumbers and schemed over a year for a way to get JEH to leave voluntarily. Died 1972, just before opening of JEH building. Ms. Gandy destroyed his personal files (which included both sensitive collection and JEH’s personal correspondence).
Named for Teddy Roosevelt (father claimed he charged San Juan Hill but would only have been 15). Smart but lazy class clown, only cared about baseball—specifically hitting (constantly practiced swing, even on flowers as he passed). Joined Pacific Coast League Padres before graduating high school (in those days teams held open tryouts on field before games). Red Sox acquired at age 19, started with Single-A Minnesota under coach Rogers Hornsby. In 1939 rookie season hit .327 with 31 HR and 145 RBI. Red Sox moved bullpens from foul territory to right field to bring the fence closer for their new lefty (some called the addition “Williamsburg“). 1941 was a soap opera with rival Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hit streak and Williams’ .406 average (decided to play last day and went 6-for-8).
After Pearl Harbor, initially resisted enlistment (appealed draft classification given caretaker for mother), but after outcry enlisted during 1942 (still finished season and won Triple Crown). Trained in Amherst, MA then Pensacola, FL and chose Marines. Assigned to stay in FL as instructor (finally received orders to Pearl Harbor 9 days after Nagasaki). Missed three seasons, age 24-27, in joining the 540 (of 580) major leaguers who joined the military. 1946 led Sox to first pennant since 1918 (Babe Ruth), but Williams lost his only WS in 7 games (and batted only .200). 1953, short on pilots, the Marines called back to duty and deployed to Korea (USAF got new F-86 Sabres, USMC flew old F-9s). Hit by anti-aircraft fire 15 miles from Pyongyang, nearly died crash landing.
1954, broke collarbone first day spring training and announced retirement. 1956, spit at writers/fans at least three times, but made up. 1957, batted .388 for AL Title. 1958, took his sixth batting title. Showed age 1959-60 but still homered in last at-bat at Fenway (and sat out final series in NY). Elected into Hall of Fame on first ballot. Career: Red Sox 1939-60. 2,634 hits, including 521 homers. Lifetime batting average .344; slugging average .634. Won MVP twice (finished second four times, usually to DiMaggio or Mantle).
Declined offer from Yankees to DH and became Sears spokesperson for baseball/fishing/hunting. 1969, wooed into managing hapless Washington Senators (and raised team batting average 30 points), but stayed on for disastrous seasons in DC (1970) and club’s first after move to become Texas Rangers (1971). Became Red Sox batting instructor in 1978, supported Conservative Republican politicians, lived retired life in Florida Keys/Tampa area. After third stroke in 1994, lost 75% of vision. At 1999 All-Star Game at Fenway, spurned Red Sox cap/uniform for hitter.net hat (site son John-Henry used to sell memorabilia).
Famously profane and mercurial. Uniquely focused on mental approach for each pitcher to find a good pitch to hit (furious with himself for hitting a home run on a ball). Lived life in compartments: baseball, hunting (in Minnesota), and fishing (game fishing in keys). Loner who didn’t smoke or drink to excess and liked Western movies. Cantankerous relationship with writers and fans—especially Boston fans critical of his defense (tried to aim foul balls at hecklers, never tipped cap or made curtain call).
Married three times but none lasted more than a few years (angry, absent, unfaithful husband). Missed birth of all three children (two due to fishing trips) and supported family financially. Troubled first daughter Bobby-Jo got pregnant at 16 and tried to commit suicide rather than ask father for money for an abortion. John-Henry pushed cryonics and had Williams’ body drained of fluids, refilled with antifreeze, frozen, and placed in refrigerated cylinder with private company in Scottsdale, AZ. Bobby-Jo initiated legal proceedings to free her father’s body before settling for $215,000. Whistleblowers at company revealed head was accidentally decapitated and is now stored separately in nitrogen.
Research-backed parenting advice:
The key to speech development is not endless talking to your baby, but responding to their vocalizations (echo, respond, touch). This is why TV education doesn’t work. Follow their lead (eyes) for object labeling (“This is a X.”). Frame sentences with nouns at beginning our end, but when older, repeat sentences several different ways to reinforce (“variation sets”). They also need time alone, to babble and consolidate what they’ve learned.
Encourage imagination. After you read a book, have them tell it back to use (using illustrations creatively if they can’t yet read).
Praise childrens’ effort, not innate talent (otherwise they learn they don’t need to put effort). To be effective, praise must be specific and sincere. Have them circle their best handwritten letters so they can be self-critical from a young age.
From age three, talk to your kid about race (they’ll notice differences anyway). Don’t shush their cringey statements, gently explain (just as you might do with gender differences).
Siblings fight 3.5 times per hour, mostly over material things–not parental affection. Reducing is less about conflict resolution than conflict prevention (teaching them to be proactive about independently resolving disagreements.). The best indicator of peaceful siblings is if the older one can play nicely with his best friend. Exposure to constructive marital conflict can improve kids’ prosocial behaviors, so long as it doesn’t escalate, insults are avoided, and the dispute is resolved with affection.
Very young kids don’t understand the larger themes of TV shows like Arthur, and only recognize/re-enact the individual aggressive behavior they see. Discipline is all about consistency in enforcement of rules and types of punishment.
96% of kids start experimenting with lying by age four. They learn from their parents who lie on average every three social interactions (and instruct kids to lie in instances to be polite). Avoid putting them in scenarios where they have to lie (instead of “did you do X?” Just remind them not to do X and move on). Also try “If you tell me the truth I’ll be very happy.”
Teenagers lie to protect their relationship with parents. Ironically, parents who were most consistent in enforcing rules are the warmest and had the most conversations with their kids (and entertained their kids’ arguments for exceptions to rules).
William McKinley’s education was cut short by a nervous ailment and family debt, but enlisted for the Ohio infantry and bravely resupplied troops at Antietam, impressing then senior officer Rutherford Hayes. In Congress, saw business not as something to be regulated and controlled but as the engine for the US in an international competition (pushed the “McKinley Tariffs”). Twice beat Nebraskan Democrat William Jennings Bryan who was fixated on attacking the gold standard.
McKinley’s domestic economic focus led to efforts to grow access to foreign markets (“commercial hegemony”). Simultaneously, editors William Randolph Hearts and Joseph Pulitzer spun up the public about the Cubans’ fight for independence from Spain and the mysterious sinking of the USS Maine, killing 266.
McKinley tempered his A/Secretary of the Navy (and second term VP) Teddy Roosevelt’s giddiness for war, but ultimately approved military action in the Philippines, which wiped out the Spanish fleet in a morning’s work. The invasion of Cuba was “the most rowdy, chaotic, even slapstick, conflict the US has ever fought” (e.g. Rough Riders a motley group of cowboys, native Americans, NYPD). Upon disembarking in Santiago, the confused horses swam to sea and drowned until guided to land by a bugler. US extracted Spanish concessions of Philippines, Cuba, and Puerto Rico, and economic/paternalistic impulses (educate, uplift, and Christianize) convinced to maintain. McKinley also sent troops to China to back his “Open Door” policy and help put down the Boxer Rebellion (helped rescue then businessman Herbert Hoover).
McKinley was endlessly devoted to his wife Ida, who suffered seizures. First president to ride in an automobile and smoked as many as 50 cigars per week. The most popular president since Lincoln, spent so much time in receiving lines, he perfected the “McKinley grip” to prevent cramping (used left arm to move them along, clocking up to 50 people/minute).
Anarchy gained adherents in a four-page weekly in 1832 called the Peaceful Revolutionist, promising freedom from political and corporate oppressors. Propaganda of the Deed inspired assassinations of European monarchs and industrialists. Radicalization driven by Haymarket bombing in Chicago (1886); Homestead strike break near Pittsburgh (1892).
Leon Czolgosz (aka Fred Nieman) was the son of a Polish immigrant who led a nomadic existence to realize the American dream, moving around Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Mother died and watched how the industrial revolution, poor working conditions, and subsequent labor strikes decimated once prosperous communities. Czolgosz quit his job with a supposed ailment and lived unhappily on his family farm, until inspired by a speech from “Red Emma” Goldman. His evasiveness and social awkwardness led anarchists to warn others he was a government agent. Inspired by the assassination of Italian King Umberto I, staked out the President on his trip to Buffalo for the Pan-American Exposition.
Following the shot, nothing about the president’s care was easy. McKinley’s heft made tracing the bullet difficult, the lighting in the operating room was poor, the expert on gunshot wounds was conducting a surgery at Niagara Falls (when summoned, he replied “I can’t leave this case even if it were for the President” to which the intruder said “It is for the President!”). Unbeknownst until later, gangrene had developed on the walls of his stomach and his blood was slowly poisoned. Czolgosz was pronounced sane, convicted in two days (jury extended deliberation to make it seem like they took seriously), and executed by electric chair.
Left-wing “revolutionaries” were responsible for hundreds of bombings (with communiques), bank robberies, and murders of police officers from 1968-1984. Driven by racial injustice and the Vietnam war, they drew inspiration from Che Guevara, Vladimir Lenin, John Brown, Jules Debray, and movies (Battle of Algiers, Butch Cassidy). While not terribly lethal, they waged war against the “racist, imperialist” United States and many eluded law enforcement for years.
Weather Underground: Split from Students for Democratic Society (SDS); named for Bob Dylan lyric. Led early standoff at Columbia University. Leaders: Mark Rudd, John “JJ” Jacobs, Jeff Jones, Bernardine Dohrn, Bill Ayers. Smash monogamy, orgies, drug use. Went underground after underwhelming “Day of Rage” in Chicago in 1969. Membership fell after Terry Robins accidentally blew up own NYC TOWNHOUSE. Ron Fliegelman designed safer bomb enabling campaign of bombings against symbolic targets (e.g. US Capitol, Pentagon, State Dept) largely from bathroom stalls (issued warnings to avoid casualties). As law enforcement drew closer (“ENCIRCLEMENT”), shifted to releasing the book Prairie Fire in 1974.
Black Movements: Started under Robert Williams with “Black Self-Defense.” Spread nationally but Malcolm X’s calls for Revolution. Stokley Carmichael championed “Black Power.” Huey Newton and Eldridge Cleaver created the Black Panthers. In 1971, Cleaver split off creating the Black Liberation Army (BLA). Pursued leaderless resistance, killing dozens of police officers. San Quentin inmate George Jackson achieved prominence before dying in a violent escape attempt.
Symbionese Liberation Army (SLA): Don DeFreeze created in Berkeley in 1973 with 9 members. Early actions hapless with trademark cyanide-laced bullets, but rocketed to national attention with kidnapping of Patty Hurst. Following indoctrination and multiple rapes, she joined on fear of death and participated in bank robberies. After DeFreeze died in LA police shootout, Bill Harris took over under the “New World Liberation Front” and perpetrated hundreds more bombings including Diane Feinstein. Member Ron Huffman murdered partner with an axe.
Fuerzas Armadas de Liberación Nacional Puertorriqueña (FALN): Carried out 130 bombings between 1974-1983, mostly in NYC and Chicago. Started in social work, radicalized by Cuban intelligence and the Weathermen. Funded by Episcopal church minority outreach charity. Bombmaker Willy Morales lost one eye and nine fingers in explosion, but still escaped from prison.
United Freedom Front (UUF): Ray Levasseur and wife Pat Gros founded this Marxist group responsible for several bank robberies and bombings in the Northeast from 1976-1984. Associate Richard Williams killed NJ Trooper, resulting in living on the run but FBI ultimately got a tip which led to their arrest in Ohio.
“The Family”: Former BLA member Mutulu Shakur, stepfather of Tupac, led cocaine-driven group which killed a Brinks Guard and several police officers following a robbery in 1981. Also escaped former BLA member and murderer Assata Shakur from prison in 1979.
Responses: While many subjects involved in shootouts were caught, FBI investigations into bombings (e.g. Weathermen) lagged. Nixon demanded action, Hoover opposed intrusive methods on account of FBI reputation but AD Sullivan permitted warrantless “black bag” jobs, informants in college classes. After Hoover’s 1972 death there was ambiguity but many techniques continued. In 1980, Carter’s AG indicted A/Dir L Patrick Gray, AD Mark Felt, and AD Edward Miller with violating constitutional rights, but they were sentenced to no prison time and pardoned by Reagan.
Former West Point history chair reckoning with his southern upbringing which taught him reverence for traitorous and racist confederate heroes. (Alexandria, Georgia, Washington & Lee University, Army)
Since losing the Civil War, many in the South have been rebranding the era under the “Lost Cause” myth:
Slaves lived happily on idyllic southern plantations (life in bondage was horrific)
The “War between States” was fought over states’ rights between the “Union” and Confederacy. (The Rebellion was fought between the United States Army and men who rejected Lincoln’s election and abrogated their constitutional oaths to bring arms against their country over slavery).
Robert E. Lee was an unmatched commander, let down only by the size of his army and Longstreet’s mistakes at Gettysburg. (Lee was 6-2-3 in battles, brilliant at Chancellorsville, but Pickett’s Charge was disastrous).
Lee had no choice but to resign his commission, pressured by his friends/family. (Lincoln had just promoted; 88% of similar West Point grad officers remained loyal to US; could have sat out or urged VA not to succeed)
How the myth was propagated:
Cultural touchstones like Dixie and Gone with the Wind
Symbolism like the “stars and bars” battle flag (which wasn’t even used widely in war)
Monuments (most from 20th Century, under the auspices of reconciliation but result of United Daughters of Confederacy and political dealmaking. Several Lee monuments at West Point but worst is wildly offensive one at Arlington National Cemetary)
US Army base names (10 for slaveholding Confederate generals; including AP Hill, Lee, Bragg, Benning)
Lee Chapel at Washington & Lee, in which rising “southern gentlemen” are inculcated to worship Lee.
Alexandria left DC to protect slavery. Leesburg named for Lee.
The Judeo-Christian tradition focuses on prayer (direct address to spiritual entity) and contemplation (prolonged period of conscious thought about a specific topic). The Hindu tradition’s yogic meditation is purely concentrative on a single object (e.g. stone or candle flame). The Buddhist tradition, as much psychological as religious, values concentration but adds the element of awareness. Tantra seeks to obtain pure awareness by destroying your ego image through a process of visualization. Vipassana is a direct and gradual cultivation of mindfulness or awareness.
The essence of our experience is change. Each moment life flows by and is never the same. We perceive the universe as a great flowing river of experience.
Meditation is less about relaxation than awareness. Meditation is intended to purify the mind. It cleanses the thought process of psychic irritants like greed, hatred, and jealousy, which keep you snarled up in emotional bondage. Meditation brings the mind to a state of tranquility and awareness, a state of concentration and insight. Our minds are like cups of muddy water. The object of meditation is to clarify this sludge so that we can see what is going on in there. The best way to do that is just let it sit. Give it enough time and it will settle down.
Mindfulness is nonjudgmental observation; the observance of the basic nature of each passing phenomenon; the ability to see reality exactly as it is. It is watching the thing arising and passing away. It is seeing how that thing makes us feel and how we react to it. It is observing how it affects others. We tend to see life through a screen of thoughts and concepts, and mistake those mental objects for reality. We get so caught up in this endless thought-stream that reality flows by unnoticed. Through vipassana meditation, we learn to watch the arising of thought and perception with a feeling of serene detachment. We learn to view our own reactions to stimuli with calmness and clarity. We begin to see ourselves reacting without getting caught up in the reactions themselves. The obsessive nature of thought slowly dies. We may notice unpleasant things about ourselves but must be 100% honest.
Mechanics: Try sitting cross-legged on the front of a cushion in a special spot reserved for meditation and nothing else. You soon come to associate that spot with the tranquility of deep concentration. Don’t strain or expect anything. Most beginners start with twenty or thirty minutes. Every spare moment can be used for meditation. Sitting anxiously in the dentist’s office, meditate on your anxiety. Can also meditate on walking, activities in slow motion, or posture throughout the day.
It helps to give our mind an object that is readily available every present moment (so-called “unstructured meditation” is extremely difficult). One such object is our breath. It serves as that vital reference point from which the mind wanders and is drawn back (counting breaths can help).
The purpose of meditation is not problem-solving so try to resolve your immediate daily conflicts before meditation when you can. When you first begin to practice this technique, you will probably have to do it with words, but try to avoid having conversations with yourself inside your head. Eventually, you can dispense with the formality of words altogether. Once the mental habits are in place, you simply note the distraction, note the qualities of the distraction, and return to the breath. It’s a totally nonconceptual process, and it’s very quick. During meditation we are seeking to experience the mind at the preconceptual level. You’ve got to cruise along right here in the present, picking things up and letting them drop with no delays. It takes a very light touch.
Common obstacles:
Pain: Make the pain your object of meditation. You will discover both the pain itself and your resistance to that sensation. Resistance reaction is partly mental and partly physical. The physical part consists of tensing the muscles in and around the painful area. Relax those muscles. Then go after the psychological tensing. You are clamping down mentally on the sensation of pain, trying to screen it off and reject it from consciousness.
Drowsiness: The inquisitive awareness is the opposite of drowsiness, and will evaporate it. If you are very sleepy, take a deep breath and hold it as long as you can. Then breathe out slowly. Repeat this exercise until your body warms up and sleepiness fades away.
Strong feelings: If a particular sort of obsession is troubling you, you can cancel it out by generating its opposite. For example, if you absolutely hate Charlie, and his scowling face keeps popping into your mind, try directing a stream of love and friendliness toward Charlie, or contemplating his good qualities.
There are setbacks and difficulties in meditation, but there is no failure unless you give up entirely. If you learn nothing else, you will learn patience. Mindfulness grows only one way: by continuous practice of mindfulness, by simply trying to be mindful, and that means being patient. The process cannot be forced and proceeds at its own pace.
Seated meditation itself is not the game. It’s the practice. The game in which those basic skills are to be applied is the rest of one’s experiential existence. When your meditation becomes really powerful, it also becomes constant. Once your mind is free from thought, it becomes clearly wakeful and at rest in an utterly simple awareness.
Observe and talk to your baby. Give time in a safe space without stimulation. Beyond a few months, establish a schedule; working towards adult meal times (8am, 12pm, 4pm, 8pm). Epidural and formula are normal. Establish bedtime rituals and teach babies to put themselves to sleep. Pause before intervening for the first four months, then use cry-it-out to train.
Serve food in courses; vegetables first. Everyone eats the same thing (you choose foods; they choose quantity). If don’t like; try again later prepared a different way. Only one snack per day (4pm).
Talk to kids like adults; be polite. Enforce the use of please, thank you, hello, goodbye (gets them talking; acknowledging others). Give free time and space to play; let kids socialize. Teach patience through practice by making wait (slow response, don’t let them interrupt you and vice versa). Give meaningful chores and privacy.
Set consistent, firmly enforced boundaries (parent always in charge). But give freedom within those rules. Stay calm during tantrums. Children have rational motives that parents must try to understand. Say yes as much as possible but say no with confident conviction (or “we don’t do that”). Explain reason behind the rule (try to teach, not police).
Don’t rush developmental milestones or get competitive about activities. Keep risks in perspective (early sleep-away camps build independence/self-esteem). Don’t overuse praise
Don’t let being a parent overshadow your identity (e.g. go back to work). Make parenting easy on yourself without guilt: playdates/birthdays are drop-offs. Lose baby weight; don’t dress like a mom. Your bedroom is your castle (kids ask permission to enter). Take annual week+ vacation without kids. Don’t contradict your partner in front of kids; don’t harp on husband’s mistakes lest he be demoralized.
After Pearl Harbor, Hitler should’ve let the US exhaust itself in the Pacific, but without consulting his advisors, on 9 December released Admiral Karl Donitz from restrictions on naval warfare against US ships. The Tripartite Alliance required only defense against allies’ aggression, and Japan had declined to attack USSR in Vladivostok, but Hitler (perhaps to pre-empt inevitability or guarantee Japan’s loyalty) declared war against US on 11 December. Hitler wanted to bomb American coastal cities with long-range bombers from the Azores but the plane wasn’t completed until late 1942 and only one was ever built. Admiral Donitz wanted to hit coast harder with the resource-strapped Ubootwaffe but Hitler was focused on land war. In Operation Drumbeat (Paukenschlag) from Jan-Feb 1942, five U-boats sunk at least 25 commercial ships killing hundreds and sinking hundreds of thousands of pounds of equipment.
U-boats preferred to work in packs, at night, at the surface, diving only to avoid enemy attacks or bad weather. British sonar (ASDIC) couldn’t detect non-submerged objects. Germans painted pictures on masts (instead of numbers) for OPSEC. U-boats had single toilet for 50 people; only shared (“hot”) bunks. Wore more comfortable captured British uniforms. Nobody shaved to preserve fresh water. Many crew members never actually saw water or had any idea where they were in the world for the full deployment. Some UBoats experienced as high as 50% torpedo (“eel”) dud rates. Uboats bottomed out on the mud during the day where could hear propellers around. U-boats built in pens with 7-meter-thick roofs, never penetrated by allied bombs.
U-123 (Eins Zwei Drei) Captain Hardegen (“Old Man”) was Kriegsmarine pilot forced into UBoats after a crash and Luftwaffe seized control of all air assets. Hardegen received a 2-hour lead time for deployment, was under allied fire within 24 hours. U-123 completed two patrols in 1942 targeting ships from New York City to Cape Canaveral. On second tour, after torpedoing and shelling a tanker near St Augustine, was pinned down by a destroyer and initially abandoned ship (even beginning to let water in), but Destroyer allowed to escape.
British intelligence monitored all ship communications traffic and 1941 capture of ship led to Enigma breakthroughs at Bletchley Park. US naval intelligence much more nascent (better at Purple code in Pacific) but Royal Navy shared lessons learned. Admirals Ernest King and Adolphous Andrews oversaw coastal protection, had 20 ragtag ships (“gun lobby” biased toward large battleships), 103 aircraft (although 75% unsuited for antisubmarine patrols). Only flew in daytime and pilots had no training in ship identification. US Coast Guard and coastal cities were slow to embrace total blackout on the shore, allowing Uboats to silhouette targets. The “loose lips sink ships” campaign to prevent leaking routes/times to the enemy was probably misguided as UBoats had continuous stream of unescorted ships steaming past brightly lit coasts. Mounting loses created PR/political debacle for the Navy, which appeared absent. Eventually, King began to accept advice from the British, reassign destroyers and utilize smaller/civilian yachts for the ASW mission.
In many ways, babies are born three months too soon (“fourth trimester”). All babies whimper, cry, and shriek. Near impossible to identify problem from type of cry alone; use context:
Before feeding: hunger, thirst, challenging temperament
During feeding: the gastro-colic reflex, the milk flow is too slow or too fast, the milk has a strange taste, stomach acid reflux
After feeding: continued hunger, the gastro-colic reflex, needing to burp, needing to poop, wanting to suck more, food allergy, stomach acid reflux
Letting your baby “cry it out” makes as little sense as closing your ears to your screeching car alarm while you wait for the battery to die. Sometimes babies cry because they’re crying and unable to self-sooth.
Colic: When baby cries three hours a day, three days a week, three weeks in a row. Usually starts at two weeks, peaks at six weeks, and ends by three to four months of age. Often much worse in the evening (“witching hour”). Separate from…
Stomach issues: Babies often double up, grunt, strain, and seem relieved by passing gas or pooping. Make sure your infant isn’t overeating (try feeding a little less and see if the spitting stops and the crying improves). Burp your baby every five to ten minutes during a feeding. If reflux (GER), try drugs (e.g. Pepcid, Prilosec, Prevacid). Mothers’ diet rarely causes baby’s discomfort.
Three ancient colic cures:
Massage: 15 minutes/day reduces crying/stress and increases alertness/social engagement.
Walk Outside: a parade of calming out-of-focus images and jiggly, soothing rhythms.
Warm things: Warm bath, warm blanket, warm bodies.
The 5 “S’s”: How to turn on your baby’s calming reflex
Swaddling—tight wrapping
Side/Stomach—laying a baby on her side or stomach
Shushing—loud white noise
Swinging—rhythmic, jiggly motion
Sucking—sucking on anything from your nipple or finger to a pacifier
To help sleep, start a nighttime routine (e.g. low lights toasty bath loving massage with heated oil some warm milk cozy swaddle a lullaby … softly sung and gentle white noise playing in the background).
Born 1818 in Maryland to slave mother and unknown white father (possibly master, Hugh Auld). Orphaned and moved to Baltimore where Sophia Auld illicitly taught to read. In 1838, free black woman Anna Murray helped Douglass escape in sailor’s uniform with fraudulent papers by three trains/three steamboats. They started a family in Rochester, NY where he honed oratorical skill as preacher. With a compelling story, joined William Lloyd Garrison’s abolitionist movement (Garrisonians) and wrote first of three best-selling autobiographies. Now famous, traveled as a fugitive slave to Ireland and Britain. Returned in 1847 seething at American slavery and started a rival North Star newspaper, incisively attacking slavery in the south and racism in the north. Lectured broadly and was the only black attendee at the 1848 Seneca Falls Convention for women’s rights. Widely viewed as “radical” and met John Brown, but declined to participate in the Harper’s Ferry raid (though nearly arrested for it). Critical of Lincoln for openness to “colonization” of blacks elsewhere until 1863 Emancipation Proclamation changed the meaning of the war and allowed blacks to serve. Recruited troops and Stanton/Lincoln’s warm 1864 reception at White House regarding treatment of black troops converted him to advisor/advocate for black America. After war, sparred with Johnson and advocated for black rights during Reconstruction including as President of the Freedman’s Savings Bank. Moved to DC (U St) and became active in Republican politics including appointment as US Marshal for DC in 1874. In 1877, reconciled with former enslaver Thomas Auld on deathbed and bought Cedar Hill (Anacostia) home. Following Anna’s 1882 death, married white women Helen Pitts and traveled Europe. In 1888 became the first African American to receive a vote for President of the United States in a major party’s roll call vote. Consul General to Haiti, vocal in response to the lynching crisis. Died of heart attack in 1895 and buried in Rochester.
“Old Man Eloquent”. Knew how to appeal to the mind but through emotions. For example, won over audience with praise of founding fathers, shocked with horrors of slavery, inspired by ending on hopeful note. Personal story added authenticity. Laid groundwork for WEB DuBois and Booker Washington. Spirituality drove through trials. Wrote millions of words but never about his wife/difficult personal life.
Set out to write about living in Paris, but Paris was overshadowed by the fatherhood of a seven-month-old baby. Insights:
“Remember that life you thought you had?” he wrote. “Guess what. It’s not yours anymore.”
What I’ve learned waiting for my children to be born: (1) arrive sober; (2) do not attempt to be interesting, as it makes the nurses uneasy; (3) never underestimate your own insignificance; and (4) try to get some sleep, as no one else can. Up until the moment the child is born, the husband in the delivery room is in an odd predicament. He’s been admitted to the scene of the crisis but given no serious purpose.
Once they wheel mom from the delivery room to the recovery room, Stage 1 ends and Stage 2 begins. For the whole of Stage 1, a father performs no task more onerous than seeming busy when he isn’t. Nothing in Stage 1 prepares him for Stage 2, when he becomes–in a heartbeat–chauffeur, cook, nurse, gofer, personal shopper, Mr. Fixit, sole provider, and single parent.
To the immense irritation first of her obstetrician and then of herself, she hired a doula, who was meant to use said oils to massage her feet during the delivery, but instead went out for turkey sandwiches and never came back.
Clutching Quinn after she exited the womb, was able to generate tenderness and a bit of theoretical affection, but after that, for a good six weeks, the best could manage was detached amusement. The worst was hatred.
If you want to feel the way you’re meant to feel about the new baby, you need to do the grunt work. It’s only in caring for a thing that you become attached to it.
On top of the risk that you might actually screw up your child is the risk that, even if you don’t, she’ll think you did and blame you for it. New parents are not rational; they worry about all sorts of things that it makes no sense to worry about. It’s unnatural to leave a baby to cry alone in its crib; it makes you feel about as humane as a serial killer.
The American deal is that unless you can prove you are out making money, you had better at least pretend to be caring for your child.
The domestic policy handbook clearly states that when anything goes seriously wrong with our child, am to holler for her mother and then take my place at her elbow and await further instructions. The American father is really just a second-string mother.
A family is only as happy as its unhappiest member. If you don’t know who your wife is pissed off at, it’s you.
You don’t see a lot of adults who wake up hollering at the ceiling every forty-five minutes, just as you don’t see a lot of adults who crawl around on all fours, or who crap their pants twice a day. So it stands to reason that the problem will solve itself.
Postpartum panic attacks: There’s no point in asking what’s the matter—you might as well ask a flat tire why it doesn’t have air. She’s enduring this strange hormonal postpartum deflation that has nothing, really, to do with her.
School-aged children are the rats of our time. After a day of happily swapping germs with their peers, my children apparently returned home with what probably felt to them like a mild cold, and kissed their baby brother—who promptly lost his ability to breathe (RSV). Many species eat their siblings: Sand-shark siblings eat each other in their mother’s oviducts; hyena siblings eat each other the minute they get out.
Humor makes you appear smart/confident, strengthens relationships, unlocks creativity, and boosts emotional resilience. Styles:
Standup (expressive & aggressive): Natural entertainers who come alive in front of crowds. (Eddie Murphy)
Sweetheart (subtle & affiliative): Earnest, honest, fly under the radar. Prefer to plan out their humor. (Demetri Martin)
Magnet (expressive & affiliative): Unwavering good cheer, use positive, animated, slapstick humor. (Conan O’Brien)
Sniper (subtle & aggressive): Sarcastic, edgy, dark, silently planning their next zinger (Daniel Tosh)
Humor is built around truths but contains surprise and misdirection. Writing tips: exaggerate/hyperbole, create contrast, use specifics, make analogies, use the rule of three, and use callbacks. Delivery tips: pause before punch, act it out, be emotive/dramatic, land with confidence, repeat funny lines.
Framework for judging appropriateness:
Truth (if you removed humor, would you still say it?)
Pain (is the pain still raw?)
Distance (does it hit too close to home? temporal/geographic).
Also, don’t use somebody else’s identity as a prop or punchline. And don’t punch downward (as you rise up in an organization, self-deprecation works best).
Judgment is a form of measurement in which the instrument is the human mind. Errors in judgment include:
Bias: difference between average judgment and corresponding true value, particularly when most errors are in the same direction. Receives the most attention. Heuristics are simplifying operations to replace a difficult question with an easier one. Categories:
Substitution biases: misweighting evidence
Conclusion biases: bypass or distort evidence (e.g. anchoring effect)
Excessive coherence: Magnifies the effect of initial impressions (e.g. halo effect)
Noise: undesirable variability in judgments by multiple individuals. Can be measured even without knowing ground truth; usually identified through noise audit experiments (multiple individuals judge the same problems).
Level noise: variability in the average level of judgments by different individuals (e.g. some judges are stricter than others)
Pattern noise: variability in individuals’ own responses to particular cases
Stable pattern noise: difference in personal, idiosyncratic responses of judges to the same case (e.g. some judges are severe on shoplifters and lenient on traffic offenders)
Occasion noise: inconsistency; effect of an irrelevant feature of the context on judgements (e.g. judges more lenient after their football team wins)
No single individual is fully consistent in decisionmaking (judicial sentences, physician diagnoses, wine tester scores). Weather, mood, hunger, time pressure all affect decisionmaking, as does an intrinsic variability in the functioning of the brain (like shooting free throws). When prompted to make a second guess, the average of the two is usually closer to truth. Averaging judgments across large numbers of individuals is also closer to truth, although if not made independently then subject to social influence.
Even very simple mechanical prediction techniques outperform human judgment because they are noise-free. And very sophisticated AI techniques have can exploit much more information than the human mind can compute. Broadly, our sense of understanding the world depends on our ability to construct narratives that explain the events we observe (causal thinking, System I). Only when our model of the world cannot be tweaked to generate an observed outcome do we tag it as surprising and start to search for a more elaborate explanation (statistical thinking, System II).
Decision hygiene strategies for reducing bias and noise:
Select the best possible human judges (and teach them statistical literacy)
Sequence information (e.g. fingerprint examiners make judgments independently of each other and superfluous facts of the case)
Aggregate multiple independent judgment (e.g. prediction markets, delphi method)
Use judgment guidelines which decompose complex decision into easier sub-judgements on predefined dimensions (e.g. APGAR score)
Use a shared scale grounded in an outside view and structure complex judgements (e.g. Google job interviews use predefined questions to score against predetermined rating scale using a unified rubric).
Ask a designated decision observer to search for diagnostic signs that could indicate, in real time, that a group’s work is being affected by biases
Caveats: Variability is desirable in some cases: diversity of opinions generates ideas/options; contrarian thinking drives innovation. Differences become problematic when professionals operate within a system that assumes consistency. Eliminating noise can be expensive, create new biases, permit gaming of the system, and deprive individuals of individuality–but is still worth pursuing.
Born 1732, lost father at 11, held fraught but loyal relationship with tetchy mother. Lifelong friend of the local Fairfax family, including youthful infatuation with married Sally Fairfax. Training as surveyor led to selection to approach the French Canadians with British demands. After French & Indian War, married wealthy (but unattractive) Martha Custis and inherited brother’s property at Mt Vernon. Never had children of his own and grieved loss of both step children. Imported fine British furniture, and plagued by debt throughout his life. Though saw abolition as the ultimate goal and freed his slaves in his will, he maintained over 500 slaves, pursued them when they fled, and believed they should be thankful for his provision of food and shelter. Notables included Billy Lee, Hercules, Caesar. Rode overwhelming popularity to presidency at the Constitutional Convention (1787) and Presidency (1789). But by his second term, fell under attack from Jefferson/Madison and their press for federalism and foreign policy. Because he abhorred political parties, he set his own Federalists up poorly against the Democratic-Republicans after he left—refusing to get involved in party organization. Earned international respect (including from King George III) for stepping down after two terms. After presidency, fell out with Jefferson over partisan attacks and the envious Adams over the possible creation of an Army. With Pierre L’Enfant, played an active role in designing the city of Washington DC (including ionic columns for the Senate chamber); though built by slaves and unfinished until Civil War. Died following ill-advised bloodletting in 1799. Immediately took on mythic status (honest about chopping down cherry tree, hurling silver dollar across Delaware river). Martha burned private letters.
Traits: Unquestionably courageous in battle, but no grand strategist and lost more battles than won. Deeply ambitious (carefully concerned with public image), but a gifted statesman with strong vision who learned to subordinate his own pride to the national interest. Strongly principled, brought maturity and integrity to a political experiment that resonated around the globe. While a stoic “man of marble,” was also emotional (cried when leaving office).
Capitals: Philadelphia (1776-85); NYC (1785-89); Philadelphia (1790-1800); Washington DC (1800-Present)
History: Following Reconstruction, the KKK lynched around 5,000 blacks—in addition to floggings, cross burnings, and bombings. FBI initially deferred to local law enforcement (often sympathetic to the KKK) but reversed course in the 1960s. It opened local offices, investigated corrupt cops, and by 1964, 6% of KKK members were FBI informants (promoted infighting, discredited leaders, and steered away from violence). Combined with public opinion, increased black voting, and SPLC lawsuits, devastated the KKK.
In the 1970s, RMVEs switched from formal groups to local networks and political activism to terrorism. Vietnam War and societal changes drove anger. National Alliance (William Pierce), Aryan Nations (Richard Butler). Many traveled to fight for legacy British government in Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe). FBI penetrated, arrested, and burned down The Order safehouse at Whidbey Island, WA in 1984 after 35-hour standoff. In the 1990s, white nationalism converged with the surging militia movement following Ruby Ridge and Waco.
Contemporary: On 22 July 2011, Anders Breivik detonated a car bomb in Oslo killing 8 and went to an island hosting a summer camp affiliated with the leftist Labor Party and killed 69 while disguised as a policeman. On 15 March 2019, Brenton Tarrant calmly murdered 51 people at two mosques in New Zealand. Both were active online but lone wolves, planning carefully for years and leaving manifestos (Tarrant used drones and online footage to scout mosques).
From 9/11 to 2021, RMVEs killed almost 100 people in the US (5/year); on par with HVE. The number of white nationalist groups increased by 50% from 2017 to 2019, though this may reflect weakness rather than strength. Modern conspiracies: FEMA is building camps to imprison patriots who resist government; UN troops are hiding in national parks, waiting to seize power; European elites are Islamizing European culture in exchange for oil (“Eurabia”).
Today, the government and public opinion oppose white supremacy, but the movement today is more global and often more deadly, and it has a longer list of enemies (USG, LGBTQ). Groups are limited by poor quality recruits (70% of those who have engaged in white supremacist violence have at least one prior arrest), lack of funding, infighting, pressure from law enforcement, and lack of popular support.
Counterterrorism: A federal domestic terrorism statute is unlikely to significantly change operations and could be misused against political opponents. Despite a patchwork of terrorism laws, prosecutors generally charge the most easily provable charges like illegal gun possession, drug trafficking, fraud, and assault—sometimes with hate crime enhancements. Seditious conspiracy charges usually failed (e.g. Fort Smith acquittals) until Oathkeepers/Proud Boys. Lesson from Ruby Ridge and Waco showed that de-escalation and isolation are more effective than aggressive confrontation.
US is understandably reluctant to share USPER information with international partners, but should designate more foreign RMVE groups as FTOs, thus increasing the risk for those at home who support them. Civil society groups (e.g. SPLC) also support law enforcement with their own informants and civil lawsuits.
Data-driven approach to parenting:
Delayed cord clamping, Vitamin K supplements, and skin-to-skin contact are good. Circumcision has small benefits (reduces UTIs/phimosis/HIV/cancer) and tiny risks (infection, meatal stenosis).
Skin-to-skin contact is good. Swaddling reduces crying and improves sleep. Avoid exposure to germs for at least the first three months (most vulnerable). Breastfeeding has some benefits (fewer allergies/gastrointestinal disorders/NEC/ear infections, lower risk of breast cancer for mom).
Back sleep reduces SIDS, but the benefits to room sharing die out in the first few months. Bed sharing is risky and sleeping on a sofa with an infant is extremely dangerous. “Crying it out” methods are safe, encourage sleep and improve mental health (key to sleep training is consistency). Earlier bedtime = longer sleep (most consistent feature is wake up 6-8am). Common development:
Longer nighttime sleep develops around two months
Move to three regular naps around four months
Move to two regular naps around nine months
Move to one regular nap around 15-18 months
Drop napping around age three
Babies benefit from early maternity leave, but no evidence beyond parental leave period. Day-care leads to slightly better cognitive and slightly worse behavior outcomes. Sick more often but develop more immunity. Judge day-care on safety (no exposed outlets, emergency plan, disposable towels), fun (floor space, types of toys/activities), and individualization (each kid has own crib/assigned teacher).
Early food introduction reduces allergies. Trust your doctor on physical milestones. Girls speak faster than boys. Minimize screen time before age 3, and after that pay attention to what they’re watching. Starting potty training earlier (beyond at least 27 months) leads to earlier completion, although it generally takes longer. Keys to discipline are consistency, follow-through, and avoiding anger (spanking is counterproductive). There is value to reading from infancy but child will not be able to read before about three.
Martial satisfaction declines, on average, after children (marriage counseling/checkup programs can help).
War started on April 19 1775, with first blood shed at Lexington and Concord, then savagely on June 17 at Breed’s Hill and Bunker Hill. King George III declared America in rebellion in October 1775; despite some opposition, the House of Lords supported war 69-29.
Most founding fathers were in their late 30s/early 40s. Washington, 41, had fully retired from military life for 15 years and never led an army into battle (only led regiment during disastrous, back-woods, 1755 Braddock campaign). Ostensibly had 20K men but at most 14K fit for duty. Faced intra-service rivalries (90% New Englanders but Pennsylvania mutiny), equipment shortages (only two rounds per soldier), illness, and traitors (Benjamin Church).
Boston: British held downtown but neither side dared seize Dorchester Heights in South Boston. Washington’s secret army to seize Quebec failed badly, but Henry Knox heroically seized and transported ~60 canons from Fort Ticonderoga, NY. War Council repeatedly denied Washington’s ill-advised plan for direct attack, so under cover of darkness, snuck the guns up the 112ft elevation (and Washington keen on filling barrels for defense). By March 20, 11,000 red coats and loyalists left town on 120 ships for Halifax, Canada then New York.
New York: Now on the defense and with more loyalists in New York, Washington’s intelligence advantage turned against him. Canons, earthworks, and signalers monitored the bay. British landed 32K troops on Staten Island in July. Washington, paranoid and indecisive, split his army and placed a string of inexperienced soldiers in dense woods at the Battle of Brooklyn (but didn’t cover Jamaica Pass). Despite a Dunkirk-esque retreat of 9K men across the Hudson, the patriots suffered continued defeats at Kips Bay, Fort Washington, and Fort Lee into November. Washington retreated to Trenton.
New Jersey: To defend Philadelphia, Washington ordered all boats on the east bank of the river destroyed for 60 miles. Congress moved to Baltimore anyway. The reckless and hyper-critical General Lee was captured in a tavern by a British patrol. Thomas Paine joined Nathanial Greene’s staff and wrote The Crisis (“these are the times that try men’s souls”). On Christmas Day, around 5K troops crossed the icy Delaware River in Durham boats during a full-blown northeaster. The Americans surprised the vicious Hessians (German mercenaries) and took Trenton, followed by Princeton, representing a turning point.
“The year 1776, celebrated as the birth year of the nation and for the signing of the Declaration of Independence, was for those who carried the fight for independence forward a year of all-too-few victories, of sustained suffering, disease, hunger, desertion, cowardice, disillusionment, defeat, terrible discouragement, and fear, as they would never forget, but also of phenomenal courage and bedrock devotion to country, and that, too, they would never forget.” Financial and military support from France and the Netherlands would play a key role, but ultimately Washington and the army would be the ones to win the war for American independence in 1783.
Whereas Europe contains networks in direct contact with Middle East-based FTOs, US jihadis tend to be loosely inspired (“homegrown”). Starting in 2014, ISIS surpassed al-Qa’ida because it (1) occupied territory, indicating ability to join caliphate; (2) effectively leveraged social media and encrypted communications. ISIS targeted Muslims poorly integrated to their communities and emphasized more, smaller/less lethal attacks.
Dataset of court records and PoE research, from 2014-2019:
US charged 204 individuals on ISIS-related counts. 90% male; 85% USPER; mostly 20-25yo. 69% material support/2339(b); 73% convicted. More travel (39%) than attacks (31%).
US disrupted 58+ attacks and suffered 23 (only two killed 5+). Cases: FBI WF disrupted Mohamed Bailor Jalloh 7/4/2017 shooting; CV UCE followed attackers to 5/3/2015 shooting at Texas Muhammad Art Show.
~300 Americans traveled to Syria; ~13 returned successfully. USG seeks repatriation (only two officially rejected), but interviews (intel + Mirandized) and extradition very time consuming. Case: “Mo” traveled to start new life, bought time before suicide mission by promising to build EMP, emailed FBI and taxi driver smuggled out to Turkey.
ISIS prioritized a range of professional, English-language, tailored propaganda to push recruits from mainstream (e.g. Twitter, Facebook) to secure platforms (e.g. Telegram, WhatsApp, Kik; Archive.org, Justpaste.it, YouTube). Gruesome videos (“propaganda of the deed”) actually uncommon on mainstream platforms. Junaid Hussain (killed 2015) doxed 1,300 US military members. Ali Amin blogs promoted BitCoin. US ideologues largely protected by First Amendment; digital proliferation even after arrest/death. Historical (Taymiyyah, Wahhab) and Contemporary (Awlaki, Jibril, Bengharsa). US often seeks to disrupt with smaller charges (“Al Capone tactics”).
Counterterrorism: US benefits from broad material support statute but is unique in lacking national countering extremism program. Efforts:
2011: Obama Administration coined “Countering Violent Extremism,” developed Community Awareness Briefings (CAB) and Three-City Pilots (Boston focused on individual intervention, LA on community engagement, Minneapolis on society root-causes). Triggered heavy blowback from CAIR and other Muslim groups.
2016: UN founded Tech Against Terrorism. 2017: Facebook, Microsoft, Twitter, and YouTube founded the Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism (GIFCT).
2019: Trump Administration created DHS Office for Targeted Violence and Terrorism Prevention (TVTP), but most activity shifted to local (e.g. SDNY created Disruption & Early Engagement Project, DEEP).
History: 14B years ago, all space/matter/energy of the known universe was contained in a pinpoint which exploded into a hot soup of quarks, leptons, and bosons. After one second, the quark-to-hadron transition resulted in the emergence of protons and neutrons and further cooling allowed fusing of protons to create atomic nuclei (90% H; 10% He). For the first billion years, the universe continued to expand and cool as matter gravitated into a hundred billion concentrations called galaxies. Each contained hundreds of billions of stars undergoing thermonuclear fusion in their cores. High-mass stars manufactured dozens of elements heavier than hydrogen and exploded, scattering their chemically enriched guts throughout the galaxy. After 9B years of such enrichment, in an undistinguished part of the universe (the outskirts of the Virgo Supercluster) in an undistinguished galaxy (the Milky Way) in an undistinguished region (the Orion Arm), an undistinguished star (the Sun) was born. Within the chemically rich liquid oceans, by a mechanism yet to be discovered, carbon-based organic molecules transitioned to self-replicating life. A mere sixty-five million years ago (less than two percent of Earth’s past), a ten-trillion-ton asteroid hit what is now the Yucatan Peninsula and obliterated more than seventy percent of Earth’s flora and fauna—including dinosaurs. Energy and gravity turn cosmic objects into spheres, and from a distance the earth is as round as a cue ball—though the Himalayas’ crustal rock resists gravity. The Milky Way probably began as a sphere but flattened to a disk as the gas collapsed. Today, the universe has expanded by a factor of 1,000 from the time photons were set free, and so all the visible light photons from that epoch have become 1/1,000th as energetic. They’re now microwaves, which is where we derive the modern moniker “cosmic microwave background” (CMB).
Supernovas are stars that have blown themselves to smithereens and, in the process, have temporarily (over several weeks) increased their luminosity a billion-fold, making them visible across the universe.
Quasars are super-luminous galaxy cores whose light has typically been traveling for billions of years across space before reaching our telescopes.
Dark Matter: Largely empty volume of space in each galaxy contain too little visible matter to explain anomalously high orbital speeds of tracers, hence the moniker “dark matter,” a stand-in for a new matter waiting to be discovered. Dark matter does not interact with light in any known way.
Dark Energy: Hubble discovered the universe is expanding, and the more distant a galaxy, the fester it recedes from the Milky Way. A repulsive force opposing gravity (previously hypothesized by Einstein as lambda) is known as dark energy, forcing the universe to expand faster than it otherwise would. Current estimates for percentage of mass-energy in the universe: Dark energy 68%; dark matter 27%; regular matter 5%. One possible explanation is the quantum effect—instead of being empty, the vacuum of space actually seethes with particles and their antimatter counterparts. They pop in and out of existence in pairs, and don’t last long enough to be measured.
Between the Planets: The Moon most likely burst forth from Earth’s iron-poor crust and mantle after a glancing collision with a wayward Mars-sized protoplanet. Earth’s Moon is about 1/400th the diameter of the Sun, but it is also 1/400th as far from us, making the Sun and the Moon the same size in the sky. Jupiter’s massive gravitational field bats out of harm’s way many comets that would otherwise threaten the inner solar system.
The main asteroid belt is a roughly flat zone between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. The Kuiper belt is a comet-strewn swath of circular real estate that begins just beyond the orbit of Neptune, includes Pluto, and extends perhaps as far again from Neptune as Neptune is from the Sun.
Telescopes: Because light takes time to reach us from distant places in the universe, if we look out in deep space we actually see eons back in time. Like the geologist’s stratified sediments, which serve as a timeline of earthly events, the farther away we look in space, the further back in time we see. The universality of physical laws (gravity, conservation of mass) ensures all planets run on the same laws discovered and tested on Earth. Modern telescopes operate in every part of the electromagnetic spectrum: radio waves (best for gas in other galaxies), microwaves (cosmic background), infrared (stellar nurseries), ROYGBIV, ultraviolet (black hole emissions), X-rays, and gamma rays (explosion of star). Radio telescopes were invented in 1930 and now can be as large as 500m across. Most now operate in space, unimpeded by the Earth’s absorptive atmosphere.
Exoplanets: Planets not orbiting our sun. First discovered 1995; currently 3,000 known; nearest is four light-years. NASA Kepler Telescope looks for them measuring brightness of stars; can also use cosmochemistry to study atmospheres. Estimated 40B Earth-like planets in the Milky Way alone.
Historical and personal essays from historian and law professor who grew up in Livingston, Texas. Mother taught at black high school but sent to white school–drawing resentment from other blacks. Integration ended Jim Crow segregation, but didn’t erase prejudice. Father felt kinship with Native Americans over shared mistreatment by whites but tribes actually enslaved blacks too.
Heroes at the Alamo were fighting for a Texas Constitution which denied any right to slaves. William Travis came to Texas on the run from the law. “Six Flags over Texas” referred to flags of countries that rules Texas (including confederate flag). The more time you spend with a hero, the more complex they become (eg Dumas Malone’s first volume on Jefferson is much more hagiography than his last). On 19 June 1965 in Galveston, TX, Major General Gordon Granger announced General Order 3, the end to slavery which explicitly granted equal personal and property rights.
Ten of his best essays for The New Yorker, Outside, and Smithonian.
First expert surfer to die in big waves since 1943 (Mark Foo in Mavericks, CA)
Dire aftermath of mudflows (lahars) from an eruption of Mt Rainier, WA (worse than Mt. St Helens, 1980)
Everest: From 1921-1996, one death per four successful ascents; from 1996-2014, one death per 60 (but more dangerous for sherpas, who don’t have as much oxygen, dexamethasone, and do the heavy lifting).
Lechuguilla Caves: 80+ miles; 67°F but 100% humidity. NASA studying microbes to understand potential life on Mars.
Following 1987 rock climbing accident, climbers became more litigious and put Chouinard Equipment out of business (now Black Diamond).
Visit to Gates of the Arctic in Alaska, the northernmost, least developed, and second largest National Park.
At least three deaths at “wilderness therapy” camps in Utah/Arizona for troubled youth raise questions about their effectiveness.
Iconoclastic architect/contractor Christopher Andrew eschews detailed designs in favor of building as the project progresses
Storied career of climber Fred Beckey, who was snubbed spot on first US team to climb Everest 1963 (history of abandoning partners).
Studied how professionals persuade, both academically and by taking a variety of sales/service jobs. Influence derives from past favors (reciprocity), nice people (liking), herd mentality (social proof), expert recommendations (authority), dwindling options (scarcity), previous actions (commitment), and shared tribe (unity). Details:
Reciprocation: People try to repay gifts/favors to avoid being perceived as a freeloader.
Ex: Mint with the bill, free sample, political contributions
Related: open with large request, concede to smaller request (person feels like they dictated terms)
Liking: People are influenced by people they like based on compliments, contact and cooperation, similarity (dress/interests), physical attractiveness (“halo effect” automatically assigns favorable traits), conditioning and association (with good/likable people).
Social Proof: People follow the “wisdom” of the crowd. Herd mentality especially strong amongst those unsure of what to do.
Ex: Terrorist attacks inspires copycats; good park signs emphasize most comply.
Related: If you want something done, assign responsibility (“YOU call 911!”)
Authority: People are trained from birth to defer to experts, even based on titles or clothing. Earning trust increases influence (e.g. waiter who advises against more expensive item early in the meal can persuade more expensive items later)
Scarcity: People are loss averse and perceive rare items as more valuable. Salesmen imply scarcity and set arbitrary time deadlines.
Commitment & Consistency: People desire to be consistent with what they’ve already said/done (particularly when previous commitments are active, public, and effortful). Salesmen use small commitments to manipulate customer’s self-image. Writing something down—even privately—strengthens commitment.
Ex: Amway makes employees declare sales goals.
Related: People like what they struggle to get (e.g. frat hazing). Employers seek to harness joint hardship activities to build team spirit.
Unity: People are influenced by people in their tribe (ethnically, politically, family, etc).
“It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into.” -Jonathan Swift
“We all admire the wisdom of those who have come to us for advice.” -Ben Franklin
Gavin McInnes co-founded Vice in 1994 as a national lifestyle and counterculture magazine. As it became more mainstream, his offensive content ruffled feathers and he left in 2008. In 2015, he founded the Gavin McInnes show, where a recurring joke was to make fun of his son’s classmate who sang Aladdin’s Proud of Boy at a school talent show. In May 2016, he named his cult-like followers the Proud Boys. The rooster atop a weather vane pointing west referenced the Western chauvinist mantra. They adopted Fred Perry’s black and yellow laurel polos (company discontinued in 2020). What differentiated PB from other right-wing extremists was violence (at least 20% of their events). Four degrees: (1) Say “I’m a Proud Boy and won’t apologize for creating the Western world.” (2) Name five cereals whilst being punched (3) Tattoo (4) commit act of political violence or get arrested. Motto: “Fuck Around and Find Out.”
Notable events:
Battle for Berkeley (Feb-Sept 2017): Denied protests after violence
Unite the Right (Aug 2017): Organized by PB Jason Kessler, Tarrio attended but McInnes wisely forbad them from wearing uniforms.
Portland (2017-2020): Blue city surrounded by red. Continuous warzone, with recurring scuffles with antifa.
NYC (Aug 2019): McInnes spoke at Metropolitan Republican Club, supporters assaulted antifa.
Groups like flash marches to take tightly framed photos and videos to appear unopposed, surprises law enforcement and counterdemonstrators off guard.
Notable members:
Jason Lee Van Dyke: Lawyer and led for two days until accidentally doxed ‘Elders.’ Threatened lawsuits and murders, rival murdered in 2020. Rejected from the Base.
Enrique Tarrio: Miami leader, brought political savvy, business experience, and diversity. Warrant for 12 December BLM flag burning, arrested for hand delivering PB-custom AR-15 magazines to customer.
Ethan Nordean (Rufio): Famous for “punch heard round the world” in Portland
Joe Biggs: Started on InfoWars; key to Jan 6
Zachary Rehl: Leader in Philly, key to Jan 6
Joey Gibson: Leader of Patriot Prayer in Portland
Kyle Chapman (Based Stickman): beat counter-protesters at Berkeley
Richard Schwetz (Dick Sweats): Runs the Lehigh Valley, PA chapter
Tim Gionet (Baked Alaska): Marched at Charlottesville
John Turano (Based Spartan): Dressed up as warrior to bludgeon people
-Tarrio pushed political direction, relationships with Nunez, Carlson, Coulter, and—especially—Roger Stone. Truly believed Trump’s “Stand By” comment was call for civil war. 30 PB ran for office in 2022, from local committee seats to state senate bids.
-Gang continues its campaign of violence under veneer of patriotism; maintained special relationship with most police until 2020 election; lost faith in MPD in particular after 12 Dec 2020 stabbings.
-Much media coverage unintentionally provided a megaphone, while Fox News celebrated and sanitized violence.
-Funding for travel, equipment, court fees, damage, medical bills comes from dues (~$20/month), merchandise (Tarrio’s 1776.shop, even sold BLM shirts), live streams (DLive), and donations (GiveSendGo) from scores of everyday Americans (also Chinese Americans, randomly, who believe antifa to be communists).
-Antifa includes not just street resistance but researchers and infiltrators (key to lawsuit against organizers of Unite the Right, which won over $25M).
→ Biggest legacy is their ability to normalize political violence and bigoted rhetoric, pulled from the fringes of the far right into the mainstream. Their playbook is now part and parcel of the right’s political playbook.
Spent a year operating covertly on more than 90 far-right Telegram chats and dating apps. Outed a Russian Nazi to Bellingcat.
Anti-Semitism: Henry Ford paper Dearborn Independent proliferated contemporary anti-Semitic conspiracies (e.g. Jews control world press, act only to enrich themselves, possess exclusionary racial solidarity). To a white supremacist, every evil—from social justice warriors (SJWs) to US foreign policy—can be attributed to the sinister, cunning, resourceful Jews.
Accelerationism: Most white supremacists reject political system entirely (Identity Evropa one exception) and embrace an impending race war, also called Boogaloo, Minecraft, the hootenanny, All Saints’ Day, the collapse, Day of the Rope.
Incels: Involuntary celibates deprived of sex by its cruel female keepers. Arising out of GamerGate (2014-15) assertions that feminism stifles free speech (and threatens the future of the white race). Most incels begin puzzled by women and sour over time into contempt.
Spirituality: Many (e.g. KKK) obsessed with medieval Christianity as the Crusades (like the Confederacy) represent glorious heroes fighting a lost cause and a clash of civilizations. Others adopt Norse pantheon/Odinism/paganism as Vikings feature strong, pure white warriors.
Platforms: Racist audiobooks and ebooks run rampant on Bitchute and Telegram. News sites include InfoStormer, The Renegade Tribune, Western Voices World News, the Daily Stormer. Gavin McInnes created Censored.tv. VISA shut down Hatreon (alternative to Patreon).
Groups: The Wolves of Vinland have performed elaborate animal sacrifice rituals in Virginia and attempted to arson a black church. Four members of the Rise Above Movement have trained with Azov in Ukraine. James Mason now lives on Section 8 housing and food stamps in Denver.
Radicalization: Occurs slowly—must be exposed to and absorb ideas over time to break down inherent opposition to racism, misogyny, and anti-Semitism. But social media recommendation algorithms allow broadcasters to build trust with their audiences and introduce them to more extremist content over time. Others host fringe figures for “debate,” thereby giving them a platform and credibility.
Jargon (helps create a sense of insularity):
Yenta: Yiddish for “busybody,” used as a slur for Jewish women.
Goyim: word for Gentile or non-Jew
Oy vey: Yiddish for “woe is me,” used to mock Jewish pain.
Shah: Hebrew for Holocaust
Blood libel: enduring falsehood that Jews torture Christian children to bake their blood into matzah (arose from discovery of murdered child on Easter Sunday 1475).
(((Echo))): used around words like society, economy, and industry to indicate Jewish influence
Shekels: national currency of Israel
Jogger: Substitute for n-word used following Ahmad Arbery’s murder
Globohomo: encompasses racism, anti-Semitism, homophobia, and capitalism
Groyper Movement: a moniker based on an obscure Pepe the Frog meme
Trad: Traditional, someone willing to hew to antiquated gender roles
Red Pill: Exposed to difficult truths
Mogging: undermining people by surpassing them (e.g. heightmogged, looksmogged)
Mewing: Pressing one’s tongue against the roof of one’s mouth to result in a stronger jawline.
Night of the Wrong Wives: Incident when Traditional Workers’ Party leader caught lead spokesman sleeping with wife (Play on “Night of Long Knives” Nazi purge)
A12: The Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville (8/12/2017)
Philadelphia Inquirer reporter spent 1988 season embedded with team. From 1926 onward, Odessa, TX was a boom-and-bust oil town, ranked by Money magazine in 1987 as the fifth worst city to live in. But its Permian Panthers were Class AAAAA in football, and since 1964 held .825 winning percentage and four state championships. Odessa never fully desegregated after 1954 so Permian remained 94% white (89% of the team). Racist attitudes were common and some coaches believed blacks’ bodies matured earlier. English department materials cost $5K, but were harder to secure than the $70K spent on chartered jets for the football team (the English teacher made $32K and football coach $48K). Odessa had intense rivalry with neighboring Midland, TX, which became corporate oasis until collapse of First National Bank (also where George Bush Sr. moved after brief stint in Odessa). Characters:
James Miles (“Boobie”): Grew up in foster care, raised by uncle, star RB injured in scrimmage, quit team. ~”Smash” Williams
Mike Winschell: Lost father, mother cashier, raised by grandma, became QB.
Ivory Christian: Loved/hated football; religious; middle linebacker; only to play in D1 college (TCU).
Don Billingsley: Handsome FB; studied food science (scored 99% on the fill-in-the-blank worksheet on cakes and frostings). ~Tim Riggins
Brian Chavez: Smart computer scientist TE who attended Harvard.
Jerrod McDougal: Utility defender
Gary Gaines: Head coach. ~Eric Taylor.
After 8-2 regular season record, three-way tie in Division resulted in a 1am coin toss at an undisclosed truck stop to determine which two teams would advance to the playoffs (odd man out). Played against Odell Beckham Sr. Predominantly-black Carter Cowboys of Dallas nearly disqualified when star player was deemed to have failed Algebra II, leading to efforts by Texas education commissioner and state court hearing testimony from his teacher (later demoted to middle school). But team was reinstated and beat Permian in the semi-finals at Austin Memorial Stadium (UT).
Academic/author on denial and deception; consulted for the CIA 1977-2000s. Provided external/unbiased perspective on how information filtered through the organization.
Defining failure as a mismatch between an estimate and what later information reveals is uninteresting—in a perfect world intelligence is frequently wrong. Failures are therefore subjective assessments of falling short of expectations on what could have been collected or whether analysts made good use of the information at hand. This book focuses on analysis (difficult to study because people are often unable to understand how they reached their judgments). Also “failure to connect the dots” is overused—there are countless dots, and can be connected in a great many ways.
Failure to predict Iranian Revolution (1979): We weren’t misled by SAVAK. Issues: Paucity of resources on Iran (4 analysts, few spoke Farsi); silos between agencies and within CIA (political/economic offices); products more descriptive than analytical; little peer review (hierarchical review not analytically probing); overreliance on classified contacts (no mingling with protestors). Predicting revolutions is hard—a surprise by definition—but misjudged ramp up of intensity (“boiling frog”). CIA also unaware of Shah’s illness/mindset; distracted by concerns Shah would overreact brutally against protests.
Estimate Iraq had nuclear weapons (2002): Politicization claim misleading (policymakers spun intel in public statements, but little evidence of pressure on people/process; consensus emerged during Clinton administration, was also held by countries opposed to war, and IC was willing to push back on AQ-Iraq ties). Issues: Each bit of evidence was ambiguous/impeachable, yet together formed a basis for far-reaching conclusions; analysts failed to convey levels of certainty (no accepted standards at the time); no red teams or consideration of alternative hypotheses (confirmation bias); discounted dissenting and negative evidence (1995 Kamel defection, lack of hard proof); overlearning (underestimated WMD activities in 1991). HUMINT was limited and wrong (Curveball). CIA analytic line overruled USAF/INR dissents (aluminum tubes). Cheney distracted Powell with spurious claims to be debunked; NIE was rushed.
→For both cases, while the analysis should have been better, the result would have been to make the intelligence judgments less certain rather than to reach fundamentally different conclusions (Bush said he would have invaded Iraq anyway).
Intelligence and Policy: Policymakers need intelligence, but often don’t like or understand it. Intel sees politicians as unscrupulous and overconfident; politicians see intel as timid or out to get them. Intel gives policymakers a more complex and contradictory view than fits their political and psychological needs. Analysts are not allowed to comment on US policy, but this is an issue when the other side’s behavior is strongly influenced by the US is doing. To be useful, intel must arrive in the narrow window where a policymaker is interested but undecided (once committed to a military operation too late; and secrecy allows policymakers to ignore). Intel should be humble about its impact; people’s beliefs are determined more by worldviews, predispositions, and ideologies than facts strung together by intelligence.
Reforms: DNI adds bureaucracy but can improve sharing and reduce CIA bias. Office of analytic integrity must be staffed by high performers who return to the line after. Need stronger middle management and peer review. Train methodology to avoid selecting on the dependent variable, ignoring relevant comparisons, overlooking negative evidence, and failing to employ hypothesis-driven method. Use devil’s advocates, red teams, and premortem analysis.
Lawsuits: Election night, only advisor who supported Trump’s (likely premeditated) inclination to declare victory was an inebriated Giuliani. In the following weeks, Trump was repeatedly informed by his campaign (Stepien), cabinet (Barr), and family (Ivanka) that he lost or no fraud. Following Nov 7th Four Seasons Landscaping press conference, Trump pushed aside campaign leadership and brought in Giuliani, Powell, and Eastman to file a flood of lawsuits, described by a judge as “an amalgamation of theories, conjecture, and speculation”…”sorely wanting of relevant or reliable evidence.” Several of Trump’s law firms quit. Lawsuits included traditional vote fraud (e.g. phony ballots), highly technical procedural issues (e.g. mail-in ballots), and bizarre conspiracy theories (e.g. Italian defense contractors used satellites to change votes). Trump lost 61 of 62 cases (including 10 before Trump-appointed judges). After Supreme Court rejected Texas suit, Trump told Meadows, “I don’t want people to know we lost, Mark. This is embarrassing.”
Fundraising: Trump, in partnership with the RNC, raised over $250M between the election and Jan 6th by sending as many as 25 emails per day, most with inflammatory or factually incorrect language. The “Election Defense Fund” never existed, it went instead to a new Save America PAC, where most of the funds remain unspent but much went to Trump and his associates’ companies (e.g. $100,000 to Melania’s fashion designer).
Pressure on States: Trump directed GA Sec of State Raffensperger to “find 11,780 votes” and threatened him with criminal charges. Giuliani told AZ House Speaker Bowers, “we’ve got lots of theories, we just don’t have evidence.” When Michigan Senate majority leader Shirkey wouldn’t change his states’ results, Trump tweeted his personal cell phone number, causing over 4,000 texts. Trump’s derision of lower-level election workers brought death threats..
Insurrection at DOJ: AG Barr resigned mid-December and Trump asked A/AG Jeff Rosen to “just say the election was corrupt and leave the rest to me.” DOJ Environmental head Jeff Clark met secretly with Trump and pushed a letter to GA with false claims of election fraud. Rosen asked Clark to stand down and showed classified ODNI disproving foreign interference. A/AAG Donohue to Clark: “How about you go back to your office, and we’ll call you when there’s an oil spill?” Trump offered Clark AG, Rosen demanded meeting with President, and the AAGs agreed they would resign if Rosen was removed. Faced with mass resignations, Trump rescinded offer to Clark. Trump also tried to make Sidney Powell a special counsel for election fraud.
President of the Senate Strategy: While acknowledging it was illegal, Eastman advocated scheme by which states would generate fake electors (mocked up in MS Word), giving Pence, as the presiding officer, rationale to declare certain electoral votes could not be counted on Jan 6th. Hershmann to Eastman: “Get a great f’ing criminal defense lawyer, you’re going to need it.” When Pence told Trump he did not have that authority, Trump called him a “wimp,” a “pussy,” told him it would be a “political career killer,” and accused him of “not being tough enough to make the call.” On Jan 6th, Trump went off script five times to pressure Pence, and added the “Mike Pence didn’t have the courage” tweet during the siege.
Capitol Violence: On Dec 19th, Trump tweeted Jan 6th would be “wild” and aids used TheDonald.win to fire up the base. Rally organizers (e.g. Women for America First, Jericho March, Ali Alexander’s Stop the Steal LLC) secured a dozen permits for Jan 5/6th. QAnon, Latinos for Trump, and others coined the event “Operation Occupy the Capitol” and at least three Trump staffers (including Meadows) told allies and organizers to march to Capitol. Trump floated the idea of him marching alongside 10,000 National Guardsman. Event and charter buses bankrolled by donors including Publix heiress Julie Fanicelli who gave $3M. In the year to Jan 6th, far-right extremists protested at government buildings at least 68 times, including DC events on November 14th and December 12th which laid groundwork for mobilization.
Proud Boys: Street instigators given purpose by Trump’s September “stand by” comment. Drew 200-300 at previous DC rallies, where Tarrio was arrested and Bertino stabbed. Leadership emphasized Capitol was “main operating theater” and drafted proposal to “Storm the Winter Palace” (reference to Leninist offensive in Bolshevik Revolution).
Oath Keepers: Rhodes drew heavily from Serbian political revolution, obsessed with pushing Trump to invoke Insurrection Act, and staged QRF in Ballston Comfort Inn. Tarrio met Rhodes Jan 5th at garage near Phoenix Park Hotel, saying “there is a need to unite regardless of our differences.”
Others: America First / Groypers, Three Percenters, Guardians of Freedom / B-Squad, DC Brigade, Patriots 45, QAnon
On Jan 5th, despite bitter cold, Trump ordered staff to keep the door to the Rose Garden open so he could hear the music and cheering from his supporters in Freedom Plaza. During speech on Ellipse, law enforcement discovered several firearms and 269 knives (with additional firearms, tomahawk axes, pitchforks, and sharpened flagpoles staged outside the magnetometers), but Trump said “Take the mags away. Let my people in. They can march to the Capitol from here.” During heavily improvised speech, said “you’ll never take our country with weakness…if you don’t fight you’re not going to have a country anymore…I’ll be there with you…we’re going to walk down the Capitol.” Giuliani added “let’s have trial by combat.” Furious that USSS disallowed trip to Capitol, Trump watched the next three hours on Fox News, refusing persistent and unanimous pleas from staff and family to send rioters home. 250 officers injured; five died in the days following. In drafting statement that night, Jason Miller bluntly refused Trump’s request to say “peaceful transfer of power” saying, “that ship’s kind of already sailed.” Hope Hicks texted, “we all look like domestic terrorists now.”
Aftermath: Trump impeached Jan 13th, avoided conviction by 10 votes. Trump continues to claim election fraud and has said he could consider “full parsons with an apology to many” of the Jan 6th defendants if he is reelected. At least seven Republican representatives (Gaetz, Brooks, Biggs, Jordan, Gohmert, Perry, Greene) contacted the White House requesting pardons. McCarthy assigned Trump responsibility and supported fact-finding commission, but forbade Republican participation after Pelosi rejected Jim Jordan and Jim Banks’ participation.
Recommendations: Electoral Reform Act, Accountability (Prosecutions), Domestic Terrorism Strategy, Ban From Seeking Office (14th Amendment), Designate Jan 6th NSSE, Strengthen House Subpoena Enforcement, Criminalize Threats to Election Workers.
USG Preparedness: Much intel was collected and shared, but few in law enforcement predicted the size or outrage of the crowd. Recent experience indicated violence occurred between protestors and counter protestors and “lacked the imagination to suppose that a president would incite an attack on his own Government.” Capitol Police was “all-hands on deck,” MPD was “full deployment” (believed 8-10,000 officers could handle crowd of 1M people). FBI created Guardian tag, wrote SIR, activated SIOC. DoD chaired two interagency planning calls where they insisted DOJ was the lead agency. National Guard had 348 fresh, equipped soldiers (many sitting on the buses waiting to deploy), but didn’t arrive until nearly 6pm. Perfect storm of bureaucracy, miscommunications, and institutional hesitance (fear Trump would use troops for his own purposes, bad optics of military interference in election, embarrassment from summer’s helicopter maneuvres over BLM protests).
Built dataset of thousands of online documents to analyze the group from 2009-2016. Patriot/Militia movement started after Ruby Ridge (1992) and Waco (1993), received mainstream attention after Oklahoma City bombing (1995), dwindled after 9/11, and surged after financial crisis (2008) and Obama presidency (2009). Grew in tandem with Tea Party and Three Percenters (founded ~2008 by Mike Vanderboegh). After election of Trump, enemy shifted from government to Antifa.
National leadership controls primary website and social media, while on-the-ground activity is largely determined by state, county, and local chapters. Founder/President Stewart Rhodes was army paratrooper, Ron Paul staffer, and Yale Law grad (disbarred in 2015). Full membership technically requires military/first responder experience (though no substantive difference from associate members). Despite claims to be nonpartisan and non-bigoted, affiliated with Republican Party and white supremacist/xenophobic/Islamophobic movements. Also conspiracist (financial elite, gun control, FEMA/UN threats).
Operational History
2009: Founding; April 19 “Muster” on Lexington Common. Local demonstrations and several members arrested for firearms, explosives, and child sexual assault charges.
2013: Launched Community Preparedness Teams for neighborhood watch. Removed barriers to WWII Memorial during government shutdown.
2014: Joined Cliven Bunny in Bunkerville, NV standoff against Bureau of Land Management efforts to seize cattle over unpaid grazing fees. BLM backed down; though OK left suddenly over fear of a government-authorized drone strike (!).
2015: Provided security for four local businesses (three minority-owned) in Ferguson, MO. Joined other government standoffs at Sugar Pine Mine, OR and Lincoln, MT. After shooting of military recruiters in Chattanooga, TN, organized armed volunteer security. Offered to protect homophobic clerk Kim Davis but she declined. OK leadership opposed standoff at Burns/Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, OR but many members participated anyway.
2016: Operation Sabot, incognito intelligence gathering of voter fraud. Operation HYPO, effort to penetrate anti-Trump protest organization and defend Trump’s inauguration (claim to have prevented a chemical attack on an inaugural ball).
Ideological Elements (draw from each based on target audience)
Natural Rights: OK believe the Bill of Rights is an incomplete list of natural human rights—but never defines the full list. Uses this strategic ambiguity to appeal to Americans and make extremist goals seem less extreme.
American Revolution Redux: OK “Declaration of Orders We Will Not Obey” draws from alleged crimes of 18th Century Britain (efforts to seize guns, conduct warrantless searches, declare martial law, import foreign troops). Uses faulty parallels to garner moral legitimacy and political support.
Waco: Demonstrates over militarization of police, and the government’s worst inclination toward violence and tyranny. OKs won’t let it happen again (“No More Free Wacos”).
Hurricane Katrina: Rather than mismanagement and incompetence, OKs see government’s readiness to use any justification to violate Americans’ rights. They allege gun confiscation and blockade of New Orleans.
Besides posing a physical security threat, OK are shifting the Overton Window (limits of acceptable political discourse) to pit the people against the government and accept violence as a legitimate form of resistance to government. They encourage vigilantism and even discourage voting since electoral politics are broken.
Grew up in Uvalde and Longview, TX. Parents divorced twice, married three times. Studied abroad in Australia, wanted to attend SMU but choose UT for in-state tuition. Wanted to be defense attorney but pivoted to film school (father accepted, saying only “don’t half-ass it”). Improvised “alright alright alright” in Dazed and Confused and hit stardom in A Time to Kill. Escaped fame in cross-country trailer and on trips to Peru and Mali. Naked arrest in Austin forced move. Shut down production company and music label to focus on family, foundation, and acting. Rom-coms paid bills but stopped accepting, holding out for Dallas Buyers Club (lost 50 lbs) and True Detective. Wolf of Wall St chest-bump tune was prep work until Leo DiCaprio suggested they include it.
Aphorisms: Only three options: persist, pivot, or concede. Form good habits and become their slave. Don’t invent drama; it will come on its own. It’s not about winning arguments, but understanding each other.
Born Staunton, VA, attended UVA (BA psychology), U Kentucky (MS), and U Penn (PhD anthropology). Served in Army Medical Research Lab during Korean War. While teaching at U Kansas-Lawrence; spent 14 summers in South Dakota excavating 4,000-5,000 Native American graves before they were submerged by a manmade lake. Jointed U Tennessee-Knoxville (UT) for anthropology and became Tennessee’s first state forensic anthropologist.
Medical examiner autopsy finds “cause of death,” but anthropologists handle decomposing bodies to determine “manner of death”. Became proficient at identifying big four: sex, race, age, height, but embarrassed by inability to determine time since death so created Anthropological Research Facility in abandoned barn on UT campus. Key variable is temperature, so used Accumulated Degree Days metric (body decomposes roughly same in one 100° day as two 50° days). Also depends on wounds, moisture, light, exposure to elements, and studied particulars in shallow graves, water and fire. Insects (blowflies/maggots) and surrounding soil also provide valuable insight.
Shares pithy accounts of murders, grave diggers, life insurance fraud, crematorium malfeasance. Early on, boiled flesh on home stove to extract bones. Met Patricia Cornwell at conference and ran experiment to inform her novel The Body Farm, which catapulted Bass to international fame.
Part I: 1988-2005
US men’s soccer team created 1916, but women’s soccer didn’t catch on until Title IX in 1972. Following successful 12-team Women’s Invitational Tournament in 1988, FIFA announced first Women’s World Cup for 1991 in China. To save money, US plane picked up Swedish and Norwegian teams on the way. US won but it wasn’t televised so barely anyone knew. After winning the 1996 Atlanta Olympic gold, players publicized US-hosted 1999 World Cup by visiting youth soccer teams and schools. Unexpected turnout, star-power of Mia Hamm, Brandi Chastain, Brianna Scurry, and an exciting win on PKs (with shirtless celebration) built momentum. Penny-pinching US Soccer (“the federation”) tried to nix victory tour, but backed down when players united in threat to strike. US Soccer replaced popular coach Tony DiCicco with strict April Heinrichs. US Soccer also blocked creation of National Soccer Alliance league in 1997, and didn’t fund 2001 creation of Women’s United Soccer Association (WUSA) which crumbled after two years due to lack of sponsors post-9/11. After 2004 Athens Olympic gold, team requested resignation of Heinrichs but replaced by assistant Greg Ryan. Amidst fraught negotiations, players wrote US Olympic Committee highlighting unequal treatment including compensation, managers/trainers, accommodations/transportation, marketing, youth academies, support for MLS v. WUSA. Only in 2005 did women’s soccer finally become a full-time annual salary independent of games ($30-70K).
Part II: 2005-2012
Hope Solo, conceived on conjugal visit and later kidnapped by father, mourning the death of her father and a friend, was kicked off the team after lashing out following ill-advised 2007 World Cup benching. Coach Ryan fired and replaced by Swede Pia Sundhage. Clutch Carli Lloyd scored game-winner for 2008 Beijing Olympic gold. New Women’s Professional Soccer (WPS) league resolved some WUSA shortcomings but lacked revenue to survive past 2011. At 2011 World Cup, Abby Wambach scored thrilling header in 121st minute of quarterfinals over Brazil, but lost to Japan in final. Alex Morgan, Megan Rapinoe, and Carli Lloyd emerged in the 2012 London Olympic gold run with wins over chippy rival Canada and revenge against Japan.
Part III: 2013-2019
In 2012, created National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) which finally received significant US Soccer investment ($10M over first six seasons) and still exists today. Short-lived coach Tom Sermanni was replaced by longtime USWNT assistant Jill Ellis. Solo had back-to-back legal incidents related to domestic abuse and DUI. Two yellow cards prompted Ellis to tweak strategy unleashing Carli Lloyd, who scored a hat trick in the first 15 minutes of the 2015 World Cup Final. Solo brought in more aggressive counsel for the players association and team filed EEOC wage-discrimination complaint. 2016 Rio Olympics disappointment was first time in 25 years team did not finish in Top 3; Solo was suspended/terminated from team after calling Swedes’ conservative play “cowardly.” 2017 Collective Bargaining Agreement gave players licensing and sponsorship rights, as well as larger bonuses in exchange for fewer contracts and less guaranteed. United team followed EEOC dismissal with legal suit against US Soccer in 2019. Men/women salary structures totally different (men can rely on clubs), glaring inequities in bonuses, ticket compensation, and travel per diems. Ellis unpopular for tinkering with lineup but advanced new players like Crystal Dunn, Rose Lavelle, and Kelly O’Hara. Amidst Twitter-feud with President Trump, Rapinoe posed like a marble statue and carried US through 2019 World Cup.
The impulse to create hierarchies transcends societies and cultures. Although race is the visible shorthand in the US, caste is the infrastructure that holds each group in place (“racism” has become emotionally charged). Three instances of caste systems:
India: Based in Hindu religion, castes are (1) Brahmin; (2) Kshatriya; (3) Vaishya; (4) Shudra; and (5) Dalits/Untouchables. Can tell based on surname (God or dirty job). Christians, Buddhists, Muslims exist outside caste system.
US: Slavery (1619-1865) was uniquely violent and legal in the US (15 hours days, scant food, sadistic torture). After federal government abandoned Reconstruction in 1877, the various Europeans united as “whites” in contrast to the lower caste “blacks.”
Nazi Germany: Hitler studied US segregationist laws for inspiration (actually found definition of black overly inclusive, decided to define Jews at 1/16th blood). Low caste untermensch (“subhumans”) included Jews, Gypsies, blacks, etc.
Eight Pillars of Caste
Originates from divine will and laws of nature
Inherited (what distinguishes caste from class/wealth, which is changeable)
Endogamy (can’t marry or mate outside your caste)
Purity versus Pollution (must be 100% pureblood)
Occupational Hierarchy (low castes perform menial/subservient work)
Dehumanization and Stigma (prerequisite for lynchings and genocide)
Terror as Enforcement, Cruelty as Means of Control (force low castes to punish each other)
Inherent Superiority versus Inherent Inferiority (constantly reinforced through culture/media)
Results: Low castes are scapegoated for society’s ills (e.g. crime); and their contributions unrecognized or successes punished (e.g. Tulsa race riots). Meanwhile, high castes make assumptions and feel entitled to intrude/patronize (e.g. frivolous 911 calls). Media papers over with narratives of blacks forgiving whites.
Cost: Studies find harboring/receiving animus raises blood pressure. It’s even a burden to high caste members who constantly fear losing their status. The inherent rivalry erodes empathy, causing policies which reduce standards of living (e.g. incarceration, healthcare). The Confederacy lost the war but rebranded their cause as noble through thousands of statues, schools/bases named in their honor.
Resolution: Germany provides a model to reckon with our past; need a Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Dominant caste must show radical empathy (humble listening). None of us control the conditions of our birth or the actions of our predecessors, but all of us are fully responsible for our actions today.
From Missouri, studied at Sophia University in Tokyo and passed standardized journalism entrance exam to land job at Yomiuri newspaper (conglomerate also owns Yomiuri Giants baseball team) from 1993-2005. Cardinal rules: one great source beats 100 lousy ones, don’t burn sources, triangulate stories, never put personal opinion in stories. Japanese press often portrayed as sycophantic lap-dogs, but actually proactively fighting for scoops and (trying) to keep forces in power in check.
Almost half the 40,000 yakuza are Korean-Japanese, many the children of Koreans brought over as forced labor during Japan’s colonial period. There are 22 yakuza groups but dominated by Yamaguchi-gumi. Many are innovative, less tattooed nine-fingered thugs and more Goldman Sachs with guns. With close historical ties to the LDP, they are treated as any other corporate entity but make most of their money through real estate and extortion.
The National Police Agency is like the FBI with all the bureaucracy and none of the investigative powers (wiretapping, plea bargaining, witness protection). Cordial with Yakuza, who fed enough information to keep cops off their backs.
Adelstein threatened local police with leaking a separate active investigation to win his first scoop, and angered them going undercover on another story. But build impressive source network with police (visited Sekiguchi’s family in evenings, bribed Alien Cop with nights out), Yakuza (tracked down origin of snitch rumors for boss Naoya Kaneko, Shibata sought atonement after cancer diagnosis), and sex workers (frequented hostess clubs—flirting, sex clubs, and love hotels, source/friend/prostitute Helena later raped/killed). Prostitution (vaginal penetration with penis) technically illegal but loopholes and minimal enforcement. Adelstein went undercover to investigate 2000 murder of Brit Lucie Blackman. Helped expose Yakuza Susumu Kajiyama, “Emperor of Loan Sharks,” who had laundered millions off predatory lending through US casinos. Discovered “Slick” was luring foreign women to Japan on promise of $40K/month and luxurious clients but put in dirty dorms and required to backpay airfare/fees—all under threat of arrest and/or deportation.
Adelstein resigned from Yomiuri in 2005 and joined US State Department study of human trafficking in Japan. Uncovered FBI helped Tamadama Goto—Yakuza boss tied to 17 murders—get a US visa for liver transplant at UCLA in exchange for comprehensive list of Yamaguchi-gumi members, related front companies/financial institutions, and information on North Korean activities. Japanese papers were too scared to publish, so wrote in LA Times and a Japanese book/anthology.
Start your day with a task completed (always make your bed)
You can’t go it alone (paddling, care post-parachuting accident)
Only the size of your heart matters (skinny tadpoles become decorated SEALs)
Life’s not fair—drive on! (“sugar cookie” punishment, freak bike accident)
Failure can make you stronger (“circus” punishment, command demotion)
You must dare greatly (headfirst obstacle slide, risky Black Hawk raid in Iraq)
Stand up to bullies (sharks, Saddam Hussein)
Rise to the occasion (technical dive, ramp ceremonies)
Give people hope (Tijuana mudflat singing, John Kelly)
Never, ever quit! (don’t ring the bell, Ranger Bates)
Entrepreneurship doesn’t have to be an all-or-nothing proposition. Your day job must come first, but technology is making work more flexible. Most fail, so diversify your efforts. Your day job and “10%” should symbiotically support each other (skills network, knowledge).
Broad types of entrepreneurs: Angel investor (investing for shares), Advisor (also providing knowledge), Founder, Aficionado (passion-driven), 110% Entrepreneur (day job also entrepreneur).
Process:
Assuming no opportunity cost, brainstorm what you want to do
Write your professional biography to identify what you do well
Do your due diligence and build a strong/diverse team
Craft your elevator pitch, be persistent
After Chamberlain’s May 1940 resignation, Lord Halifax effectively declined the position to pass to Winston Churchill. Churchill’s speeches—ostensibly for British citizens but always intended for FDR as well—offered a sober appraisal of facts tempered with reason for optimism. Churchill appointed himself minister of defense, and Lord Beaverbrook new Minister of Aircraft Production (he would submit his resignation 14 times, but increased production to 363/week, out pacing losses).
Bletchley Park had cracked Enigma and—in an effort to create a “death ray” capable of destroying aircraft—the UK discovered radar. The Luftwaffe used intersecting beams to help bombers identify targets at night.
Assuming a quick surrender, Hitler built grandstands in Berlin for a victory parade and initially discouraged targeting civilians. He insisted no ground invasion until air superiority, and felt urgency to engage USSR before built up forces (predicted Stalin would surrender in 6 weeks). Messerschmitt Me 109s were roughly evenly matched with Hurricanes and Spitfires, though limited by 125-mile range over unfriendly territory. On average, German pilots were 26 and British 20. Hermann Göring, Luftwaffe chief and Hitler’s successor, observed raids from the French coast.
Churchill approved risky mission to destroy French ships to keep out of British hands. Churchill tried to stifle press coverage on the sinking of the Lancastria drowning at least 4,000 Brits—until 2,500 survivors showed up in Britain. His “finest hour” speech captivated Parliament but was less effective when repeated over radio because he read it with a cigar clenched in his mouth. Churchill workshopped and wrote down lines, including “Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.”
Around 700 Germany aircraft struck each day/night, though occasionally launched massive attacks on London and industrial centers (e.g. Coventry, Southampton), causing Brits to disperse production. FDR, having survived the November 1940 election and with careful political messaging, managed to sell the Lend Lease Act to a reluctant American congress 60-31. Churchill pulled out all the stops to woo FDR’s representatives Harry Hopkins and Averell Harriman. Nazi deputy Rudolph Hess managed to fly an Me 109 to try to negotiate peace with the Duke of Hamilton, but had to bail and was imprisoned in the Tower of London.
Life in the Battle of Britain: The British government issued 35M gas masks to civilians and painted mailbox yellow that would change color in presence of poison gas. With a tea ration of 3oz/week, people dried used leaves to steep them again. London was covered with barrage balloons (“silver elephantines”) to keep fighters from flying low enough to strafe the city streets. With most Luftwaffe bombing under the cover of darkness, full moons were a source of dread. Londoners barely slept amidst the sirens, bombs, anti-aircraft guns, and anxiety. Many watched from their roofs as if a thunderstorm. Only about 5% used the Underground for shelter. The London Zoo killed its poisonous snakes, but one raid set a zebra loose. Bells meant the invasion had begun—Brits should disable their bicycles and destroy their maps. Sandbags and machine gun nests (some disguised as book kiosks) surrounded Westminster.
Churchill: Spent much of his time in Chequers outside the city (had to be relandscaped to make it a less obvious target from the air). No matter where he was, Churchill’s two favorite places to work were his bed and bathtub, always with a typist nearby. Worked well into the night but napped frequently. Carried a cyanide pen and revolver but often misplaced it or brandished it jokingly. Watched several raids from roof, sitting on the chimney to keep warm until an officer asked him to move to allow smoke below to dissipate. Was in debt for much of the war, asking friends for loans to cover payments.
-America’s involvement in Afghanistan was longer than WWI, WWII, and Vietnam combined. Over 20 years, 775K troops deployed, 21K were wounded, and 2.3K died.
-Sourcing: Washington Post filed two federal lawsuits to compel the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) to release Lessons Learned documents. GWU National Security Archive released Rumsfeld’s snowflakes and UVA Miller Center recorded oral history.
False Victory (2001-2002)
Using punishing airpower, CIA-backed warlords, and commandos, the US toppled the Taliban government in under six weeks. Bush’s initial objectives: disrupt AQ and remove Taliban’s military capability (out of uncertainty what to do next, quickly crept to creating a stable, American-style government with democratic elections, women’s ministry, modernized public schools).
Bush administration blurred the lines between AQ (Arabs, global outlook) and Taliban (Pashtuns, local focus). By 2002, the US was predominantly fighting Talib tribesmen who had nothing to do with 9/11.
US squandered two opportunities in 2001: killing UBL at Tora Bora, and including Taliban into Bonn Agreement.
Great Distraction (2003-2005)
General Franks convinced Bush he could handle both operations, but Iraq diverted many of the US’ best officers as the Taliban regrouped.
In building the Afghan security forces, the US moved too slowly, then too quickly. It also tried to impose western rules, customs, and structures despite vast differences in culture and knowledge (80-90% of Afghans cannot read or write but were expected to learn complex weapon systems). They used “spray and pray,” wasting ammunition and forcing US troops to rescue.
US troops which looked like stormtroopers and had little education in Islam were asked to win hearts and minds (didn’t understand how Afghan men held conservative views of women but flaunted having sex with boys).
Pakistan was the perfect refuge, protected by sovereign territory and walled by mountains and deserts (smuggler’s paradise). US tried to pay Musharraf off, but continued playing both sides.
Taliban Comes Back (2006-2008)
The unofficial mission was to keep a lid on Afghanistan while the US surged in Iraq. The chorus of optimism in public defied a yearlong stream of intelligence assessments that the insurgency was gaining strength.
The US partnered with warlords to disarm them and buy support for the national government, but many Afghans saw the Taliban as less corrupt.
By 2006, opium was powering one-third of Afghanistan’s economic output. US efforts to target drug producers were used by Afghans with ties to the government to target competitors in the drug trade. DoS lacked resources and DoD saw it as outside their mission.
Obama’s Overreach (2009-2010)
Despite policy reviews, the plan hardly changed: contain the insurgency and strengthen the government. McChrystal and Petraeus arrogantly assumed they could make their version of counterinsurgency work. Obama surged 30,000 more troops (100,000 total) but a strict timeline.
Reconstruction aid tripled from $6B in 2008 to $17B in 2010 (roughly equivalent to Afghanistan’s own GDP). But in the rush to spend, the USG drenched Afghanistan with more money than it could absorb (built endless empty schools, Taliban blew them up so Americans would pay sibling to rebuild them).
Karzai was a Pashtun acceptable to Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara strongmen who led Northern Alliance. But schism with US grew over airstrikes and corruption. His older brother owned much of Kabul Bank, beset by scandal.
Things Fall Apart (2011-2016)
As efforts to train Afghans accelerated, the insider threat exploded to 45 attacks in 2012, killing 116 US/NATO troops (fed negative news coverage). Afghan commanders inflated troop numbers to pocket their salaries (in 2016 US determined at least 30,000 troops didn’t exist—integrated biometrics). Even when troops existed, they abandoned their posts with alarming frequency.
In 2014 ceremony, Obama trumpeted total withdrawal by 2016 with 10,800 troops remaining in “non-combat” roles, but the Pentagon carved out exceptions that made the distinctions almost meaningless. Obama changed his mind, leaving 5,500 troops when he left in 2017.
Stalemate (2017-2021)
Trump declared secrecy, increased troops to 14,000, and intensified bombing (including MOAB). He also demanded direct negotiations with the Taliban (independent of Afghan government) for withdrawal in a way to save face.
In 2020, Trump pledged withdrawal by May 2021 and support release of 5,000 Talib prisoners, while Taliban promised direct negotiations with Ghani’s regime and assurances Afghanistan would not be used to launch attacks against the US.
Biden decided to withdraw all troops by September 11, 2021.
On average, polls still do a good job informing public debate and democratic governance. Can be improved with five reforms:
Method: Pollsters should abandon polls fielded entirely by phone, and incorporate samples from online or SMS messages, which provide more room for experimentation.
Margins of Error: Pollsters should accept the fact that opinion polls are subject to roughly twice the traditional margin of error which only reflects sampling error.
Aggregation and forecasting: Election forecasters should revisit their confidence in poll aggregation to remove biases, and their ability to convey those biases to readers. Forecasting should become an enterprise for exploring uncertainty, not predicting outcomes.
Transparency: The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) ought to more aggressively and publicly sanction public pollsters who do not release thorough, transparent reports on their methodologies.
Usefulness: To better achieve the promises of polls in a republican government, more political interest groups should devote themselves to measuring and advocating for the public’s opinions.
Brief history: Spontaneous counts called straw polls (1824), Literary Digest postcard ballots (1924), Gallup pioneered scientific polling with weighting (1936), Dewey defeats Truman (1948), phone polls, computer models, aggregation (Pollster.com), probabilistic models and Monte Carlo simulations (Nate Silver), response rate sampling / voter turnout models (Erin Hartman/Obama 2012), misses 2016 and 2020.
Talking Heads lead. Insights:
Technology: Ability to record increased exposure/influences, but audiences now expect live performances to sound like recordings and are less forgiving of mistakes. 78, 45 Records (forced shorter songs) > Tapes (allowed editing, multi-track recording ) > Long-Play Record (1948) > Bell Labs developed digital technology for telephone switchboards in the 1970s, led to harmonizers, samplers, Moog synthesizers, and CDs (1982). Digital editing software has made pop crisp/clean but pushed it toward a “grid” of 8-bar patterns. With streaming, music has come full circle and is no longer a material thing (difference now is it is ubiquitous and we take it for granted).
Recording: Byrne preferred live recordings, but most studios “deconstruct and isolate” components so they can tweak each part without “leakage” (e.g. hearing drums on vocals)
Lyrics: Music doesn’t have to stem from any autobiographical impulse from the writer, but it should trigger authentic emotions in the listener. Most artists’ personas are an act. Study found 69% of “creatives” have mental disorders.
Performing: Playing “tight” means together—not necessarily exactly on the beat; good musicians push and pull to convey emotion. Shows must balance novelty with familiarity; better to tip off audience to surprises (otherwise most miss).
Business: Many successful artists (even responsible ones) have gone completely broke at some point in their careers (e.g. Michael Jackson, Seal). Today’s superstars diversify into perfumes, restaurants, shoes, and clothing so they’re not reliant on music. Limited finances posed creative restrictions but also encouraged decisiveness. Historically, labels provided not just capital but musical expertise, contacts, and equipment. But they’ve largely been consolidated and bought out by corporate giants—at the same time recording and distribution costs have dropped.
360° Deal: Every aspect of artist handled by producers, promoters, marketing, managers, etc (e.g. Jay-Z)
Standard Royalty: Label bankrolls recording, manufacturing, distribution. Artist gets percent of record sales (e.g. Talking Heads).
License Deal: Artist retains copyright and ownership of the master recordings.
Profit-Share Deal: All costs divided evenly, ownership is split 50/50.
Production & Distribution Deal: Artist pays for everything everything except manufacture and distribution.
Self-Distribution: Artist does everything themselves.
Venues: A vibrant scene should give artists freedom to play what they want, make good money, and watch others for free. It should also have space for patrons who aren’t there only for the show.
Music can be a moral good (drives emotions and holds communities together), but its benefits should be spread widely (the NY Metropolitan Opera House spent $325M in 2011, while K-12 arts education budgets are being slashed across the country).
In 1991, KGB defector to the UK Vasili Mitrokhin alleged former NSA employee Robert Lipka spied for the KGB from 1965-67. Corroborated by FBI source Aleksey Kulak (Fedora). In a false flag operation, FBI UCE Dmitri Droujinsky posed as a GRU officer looking to reopen Lipka. Case Agent John Whiteside (author) drew from research on illegals Peter and Ingeborg Fischer to identify code name “Rook” (derived from Bond film From Russia With Love), which helped Droujinsky to earn Lipka’s trust. Over several meets, Droujinsky elicited significant intelligence and admissions. Lipka also claimed to launder money for Colonel Ollie North. During an interview with Whiteside, Lipka’s first wife Pat admitted she was aware of his espionage. Through careful diplomacy, Mitrokhin was prepared to testify. FBIHQ delayed arrest for Earl Pitts arrest in Quantico. Choreographed endgame to extract additional evidence: Pat told Lipka FBI was onto him, Whiteside interviewed Lipka directly, and team waited a day to see if Lipka would contact Droujinsky for help. Arrested after son left for school and searched home all day. Lipka pleaded guilty in 1997 and after refusing to cooperate in a debrief was sentenced to 18 years in prison. He had had at least 50 meets and made at least $27,000, though the full extent of his damage remains unknown.
Background: Charles I executed in 1648 during the English Civil War (Cromwell’s parliamentarians/roundheads beat the royalists/cavaliers). Three children exiled:
Mary Stuart married William II, Prince of Orange of the Duth Republic–part of the Hapsburg Empire–and had son William III. William was frail, cold, and phlegmatic, nonetheless held the superior French Army from over-running the Netherlands.
Charles II was restored to English throne 1660-85.
James II married Anne Hyde and fathered Mary II (and reigned 1685-88). Mary was lonely and sheltered but imaginative.
To align England with Holland against France, Charles II orchestrated the 1677 marriage between William & Mary (W&M), cousins who had not yet met and wept throughout the ceremony. William fought off French invading troops and had affair with one of Mary’s maids of honor. Mary suffered from depression and miscarried twice (some suspected gynecological infection mistaken for malarial fever led to permanent infertility). Nonetheless, they fell in love with the politeness, seriousness, and piety of the Dutch and each other, bonding over firm Protestant faith (Calvinist, Anglican, respectively) and high standards of personal conduct.
Glorious Revolution (1688): W&M befriended Charles II’s bastard son Monmoth, who threatened James II’s claim (and was ultimately beheaded after an ill-advised invasion attempt). French spies tried to sow discord between W&M. After Charles II’s death, W&M grew increasingly estranged from the newly coronated James as he tried to restore Catholicism in England (prosecuted seven bishops). James II had a son James Francis Edward (some suspect died and replaced with another baby) who threatened W&M’s claim. Ultimately, W&M decided James risked England becoming a French satellite state or falling into a second civil war. James outnumbered William 34K to 15K troops, but William relied on the assurances of his contacts that James’ troops didn’t support him. He landed in Brixham and marched to Exeter. 60 miles away, James decided to withdraw and fled to France (he was caught and returned to Westminster, but allowed to escape). Two months of negotiating between the House of Commons (Whig) and Lords (Tory) ultimately decided James had abdicated and the crown should be offered jointly to W&M (coronated 1689).
Rule (1689-1702): Overwork, anxiety, and asthma (worsened by London fog) took a toll on William, who preferred Dutch informality to English ceremony, nobles, and Parliament. Despite a grazing from a cannonball, William turned back James’ 1690 invasion of Ireland, and then hurried to limit the French advances in the Netherlands. James/France’s final attempt to invade England failed with a 1691 naval loss. William faced rivals in England and Holland, numerous accidental palace fires, and several assassination plots (they sometimes boosted his popularity). Mary despised William’s absences for battle each spring and fell out with her sister Anne. Using a design from Sir Christopher Wren, she established William & Mary College by royal charter. She also created a fad of neat, red-brick houses and geometrical gardens with evergreen shrubs. Mary died December 1694 of smallpox–not until after a massive memorial was her letter found requesting an inexpensive funeral. Despite many suitors, William had no desire to remarry and broke with his mistress. Rumors of homosexuality with close advisors were probably unfounded. William superficially reconciled with his successor Anne, though personal antipathy persisted. After a Peace Treaty, Parliament slashed his war budget and William’s popularity waned. William died March 1702 of pneumonia at age 51, succeeded by Anne, George I, and George II.
Legacy: Though perceived as dull, cold, and reserved–and remembered for his exhaustive military campaigns–William built the Dutch army into a respectable force and helped establish Parliament’s role in British government. He was one the last monarchs to lead armies in persona nd one of the first to have a firm grasp of the principle of balance of power.
-Lafayette Ron Hubbard (LRH) fed his youthful imagination through travel and kept catalogs of plot ideas in his journals. He befriended “Snake” Thompson, a neurosurgeon who spent his early military career roaming Asia posing as a herpetologist looking for rare snakes while covertly gathering intelligence and charting possible routes of invasion. Thompson’s maxim was “if it’s not true for you, it’s not true.” Hubbard married Polly at 22 and found a niche churning out science fiction pulp fiction stories which became popular in Depression-era America. He failed his military vision test twice, but was admitted in 1941 when FDR declared national emergency. His only official combat experience was a short command of a ship which launched all its munitions attacking a sonar ping caused by a Pacific magnetic deposit. After discharge for ulcers, moved in with LA rocket scientist and occultist Jack Parsons. After joining sexual rituals to produce a “moonchild,” stole Parsons’ girlfriend Sara Northrup and fled to Miami. “He could easily invent an elaborate, plausible universe. But it is one thing to make that universe believable, and another to believe it. That is the difference between art and religion.”
-In 1948, moved back to Hollywood and 1950 book Dianetics, invented extensive vocabulary and acronyms. General concept: “Thetans” (souls) can go “clear” by reducing the influence “engrams” (past) have over one’s current behavior through “auditing” using “E-meters” and reciting the details of the original incident until it no longer posses an emotional charge. Fed by rum and cokes, continued to write as battled Sara (kidnapped daughter and fled to mafia-run Havana, suggested she kill herself to avoid divorce, wrote letter the Attorney General accusing her of Communist ties). Dianetics was a NYT bestseller for 28 weeks, but Hubbard cleverly moved away from self-help and towards religion to maintain control and extract profit. Religion ensured his word as “Source” (founder) was law, provided tax benefits, and ensures lifetime engagement through a series of veiled revelations. Founded Church of Scientology in 1954. In 1967, set sail on Apollo with a youthful “Sea Org” to sail Europe. Continued writing, eventually embracing reincarnation and OT III (75m years ago, Galactic commander Xenu foiled a coup by collecting people at population centers, paralyzing them with a lung injection of frozen alcohol, loading the bodies onto space planes, and transporting them to Earth, where they were dropped into volcanos and blown up with hydrogen bombs. Free-floating “body thetans” remain, attaching themselves to living people because they no longer have free will, and must be eliminated). Hubbard began abusing crew with overboardings, locking children up, and hard labor (created Rehabilitation Project Force, RPF). Fleeing authorities in France and the US, Hubbard moved from NYC to Caribbean to Clearwater, Florida (“Flag Land Base”) to La Quinta, California. Son Quentin committed suicide. FBI raided the church in 1977 and indicted 11 executives including Hubbard’s third wife Mary Sue for Operation Snow White (ambitious effort to covertly place Scientologists within US government agencies). Hubbard viewed celebrities as key to recruitment. John Travolta, recruited by co-star, credited Scientology with his success.
-“Wonder Kid” David Miscavige became an auditor at 12 and Chief Cinematographer at 17. Consolidated his position as conduit to Hubbard (until 1986 death) and positioned Mary Sue as the fall person during a myriad of 1980s scandals (abuse lawsuits, OT III leak, questioning of Hubbard’s biography). Miscavige eliminated rivals, declared himself Chairman of the Board, and leader of the “religion” (not the “Church,” for legal protections). He hired a PR firm, used lawsuits to harass enemies, and resumed fight (lost in 1967) for IRS tax-exempt status (eventually won settlement in 1993). Miscavige, who had bouts of rage since childhood asthma, personally assaulted at least 30 members (including senior executives). He organized “musical chairs” games in which he claimed any losers would be “offloaded” (kicked out of Sea Org and separated from their families). Miscavige’s wife has not been seen in public since 2007. When members “blew” (fled) the church, teams used OSINT, social engineering, PIs, and surveillance to track down. When members “routed out” (the formal process), they were “disconnected” and billed $150K to see their family again.
-Tom Cruise’s first wife Mimi Rogers introduced him to Scientology. Miscavige distrusted second wife Nicole Kidman and labeled her clinical psychologist father a “Suppressive Person.” When heard Cruise was lonely in 2004, Miscavige team found young scientologist actress Nazanin Boniadi, put in special assignment for beauty treatments, staged NYC meet-cute with Cruise. Two weeks later, after Cruise perceived she disrespected Miscavige, his assistant told Boniadi to pack her things (Cruise was in the gym, too busy to say goodbye), and she was sent to dig ditches and scrub public toilets with a toothbrush. Cruise received over 200 hours of auditing from Marty Rathbun and Tommy Davis, poured millions into the church, and lived royally while RPF members received prison meals.
In the Cold War, coups accounted for ~75% of democratic collapses (Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Greece, Turkey, Pakistan, Thailand, etc.). Since, most democracies have died in the hands of an elected leader, either quickly (e.g. Hitler, ~1 year) or slowly (e.g. Hugo Chavez, ~15 years).
Extremist demagogues emerge in all societies (especially Presidential, where leader is not sitting members of Congress), but are usually isolated and defeated by party leaders (e.g. Nazi-sympathizer Henry Ford, racist George Wallace) and institutions.
Once in power, demagogues kill democracy through:
Capturing the referees (judicial system, law enforcement, intelligence, tax, regulatory agencies): Both shield and weapon (e.g. Peru’s Fujimori added judges to payroll).
Sidelining opponents (politicians, business leaders, media outlets, cultural figures) (e.g. Putin summoned 21 richest businessman and promised profits so long as stayed out of politics).
Rewriting the rules (constitution, electoral system): Often use crises and “defense” of democracy as pretext to destroy it.
Critical norms:
Mutual toleration: Politicians view rivals as legitimate, not mortal enemies. Like a pickup basketball, they play aggressively, but know not foul excessively and only call when egregious. Accept they will win and lose. (e.g. Civil War broke democracy—125 instances of violence 1830-1860—but Compromise of 1877 restored).
Institutional forbearance: Institutions encompass shared understandings of the appropriate behavior that overlay them (e.g. checks and balances blocked FDR court packing; bipartisan Congress forced Nixon out).
United States: The weakening of democratic norms is rooted in extreme partisan polarization. Factors:
Party Alignment: Until 1965, both parties had factions supporting civil rights, encouraging cooperation. Realignment gave rise to parties that represent not just different policy approaches but different communities, cultures, and values (Democrats ethnic minorities, Republicans evangelicals).
Party gatekeepers are weakened by the abundance of outside money (Citizens United ruling) and the explosion of alternative media.
Key players: Gingrich’s combative approach, Coulter’s scalding books, Trump’s birtherism, Tea Party’s 385 filibusters 2007-2012 and judge approvals dropped from 90% in 1980s to 50% under Obama, McConnell’s refusal to take up Garland’s nomination.
Trump
Capturing the referees: Asked Comey for loyalty, dismissed. Attempted to establish personal relationship with SDNY prosecutor Preet Bharara, then removed him. Criticized judges who ruled against. Pardoned sheriff Joe Arpaio, convicted of racial profiling. Neutered Office of Government ethics.
Sidelining opponents: Attacked media. Threatened Jeff Bezos.
Rewriting the rules: Proposed ending filibuster, created Presidential Advisor Commission on Election Integrity to push strict voter identification laws.
Other: Norm-breaking around lying, inflammatory language (“American carnage” inaugural).
Collection of Cold War submarine stories.
Cochino, 1948: In first submarine spy mission of the Cold War, US sent two Greater Underwater Propulsion Power subs (GUPPYs) 125 miles off the coast of Murmansk to intercept Soviet missile telemetry. One of Cochino’s batteries caught fire. Facing fire and dangerous gases, it surfaced and its crew piled on the deck for nine hours amidst freezing waves. Most escaped scrambling across a plank onto the Tusk.
Gudgeon, 1957: Positioned outside Vladivostok for indications and warning (fleet mobilization, radio chatter). Each night, surfaced to run diesel engines, charge batteries, and snorkel (bring in fresh air). Soviets spotted and pursued with four ships raining down small, grenade-like charges. An issue with Gudgeon’s garbage ejector limited how deep it could dive (pressure might crush). After 64 hours without snorkeling, Gudgeon was forced to surface and declared its return to Japan. The Soviets responded “thanks for the ASW exercise.” Admiral Rickover pushed nuclear subs, which were quieter and didn’t have to snorkel.
Deep Sea Work, 1965-1968: As part of Operation Sand Dollar, Navy tracked known splash points of Russian missiles hoping to recover. Navy scientist John Craven used Bayes’ Theorem and repurposed diesel Halibut with to recover a US atomic bomb lost during a B-52 mid-air collision in the Mediterranean and locate a sunken Russian Golf submarine in the Pacific. Craven also used hydrophone acoustic signatures to find the missing USS Scorpion in Atlantic (and contested USN’s official explanation of trash disposal failure, offering evidence of a faulty battery triggering a “hot” torpedo and “Crazy Ivan” maneuver).
Lapon, 1969: Commander Whitey Mack trailed a Soviet “Yankee” submarine for a legendary 47 days out of the Barents Sea. Followed behind, just off to one side, shielded in the backwash of the sub’s own noise. Forced to surface one night when caught in heavy net of a deep-sea fishing trawler. Helped determine Soviet SS-N-6 missiles had a 1,200-mile range (500 farther than believed). Soviets only discovered when Washington leaked to the New York Times.
Tautog, 1970: Followed Soviet Echo II submarine Black Lila in the northern Pacific. Lila went into “angles and dangles,” figure 8s and sharp turns to check noise and stowage of materials. Tautog briefly lost, then Lila’s 6,000-ton belly slammed into her sail. To avoid escalation, Tautog quickly surfaced and cruised back to Pearl Harbor under cover of darkness, assuming Lila sank (she actually limped back to port on one propeller). Resulted in greater following distance for trailing.
Ivy Bells, 1972: USN Captain James Bradley assigned Halibut to tap a presumed Soviet cable in Sea of Okhotsk. Halibut used warning signs against anchoring to find the cable and divers in specialty tethered, warming suits to tap it (through induction, no cut necessary). After proof of concept, received USG approval to build a 6-ton permanent tap (recorded and picked up periodically). Caught in a storm, Halibut sank itself into sand to save divers, then engineered its way home. Provided NSA valuable SIGINT.
Project Jennifer / Azorian, 1974: CIA spent $500M+ on Howard Hughes’ Glomar Explorer to recover the Soviet Golf sub Craven had found. However, three of five recovery claws failed mid-rescue and only about 10% of the sub was recovered, with minimal intelligence value. The rest fell back to the seafloor and shattered. D/CIA Colby personally lobbied to prevent NYT reporter Seymour Hersch from publishing, and exaggerated the operational value to the Congressional Pike Committee.
Underwater Tapping Continues: Seawolf (plagued by difficulties), landed her skids directly on the Okhotsk cable and was nearly grounded on the seafloor when twin storms clogged her vents with sand (escaped, but nearly discovered limping home). Parche planted a new cable tap in the Barents under a busy Murmansk Soviet port. On return trips, left earlier and sailed around the world for misdirection. Briefly paused during 1986 Reykjavik summit. Nearly discovered, but partner sub created a diversion allowing an escape.
Betrayal, 1967-1985: Soviets began to draw their subs back to the Arctic/closer to home where early impossible to trail (motionless subs are silent) and their technology improved drastically (though it also helped bankrupt them). Tensions rose with “evil empire” speech, “Star Wars,” invasion of Grenada, and Able Archer exercises, then fell with entry of Gorbachev. John Walker spy ring (co-worker, brother, son) provided submarine codes, manuals, and quieting technology, while NSA traitor Ronald Pelton likely revealed Okhotsk tap.
Also of interest:
In WWII, the Soviets used subs only for coastal defense, but in dividing up Nazi bounty, each of the allies received a sophisticated U-Boat.
US subs delivered Soviet emigres to the USSR to spy and landed commandos in Indonesia and the Middle East to track expanding Soviet influence.
Nine US Polaris subs were rushed to within range of Russia during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
At least two subs put the US on the verge of nuclear alert when they radioed the Yankees they were following had opened their missile doors (both cases turned out to be drills).
Soviets dumped a dozen nuclear reactors, spent cores, and radioactive parts from old submarines into the Barents Sea.
In early Arctic operations, sonar pings sounded like ring-necked seal mating calls, causing them and walruses to bark and the submarine moved through.
Post-Cold War, 75% of subs were re-deployed to hotspots in the Middle East to “prepare the battlefield” and to ride shotgun for aircraft carriers.
From Kansas City, was senior at American University during 9/11. Enlisted in ROTC (“Hoya Battalion”) concurrently with Georgetown Law. In 2006, deployed to Afghanistan for 4 months in senior role collecting HUMINT for the JIOC/J2. Frequently operated in plain clothes with only a translator, entering villages and talking to locals. No firefights, but several close calls / uncomfortable meetings.
Returned, won grassroots campaign for Missouri House of Representatives, worked ethics and voter suppression. 90% campaigning is fundraising calls. Second deployment orders were for desk job in Kuwait. Efforts to change to Afghanistan were blocked by bureaucracy, so resigned prior (at 8 year commitment). Plagued by paranoia, bouts of anger, nightmares (always moving, watching the door, listening for threats). In 2008, elected Missouri Secretary of State as upstart; first millennial to hold statewide office. In 2016, narrowly lost US senate in 2016, but won attention with blindfolded gun ad and on Twitter. Obama mentored and encouraged to run for President, skyrocketing into celebrity circuit. Started voting rights nonprofit, Majority 54 podcast, pre-campaigning (rallies in Iowa/NH). Unhappy, downsized to KC mayor run and applied for VA help but minimized symptoms and was rejected. After suicidal thoughts in 2018, dropped out of politics and used network to get urgent VA help. Three initial months of weekly therapy with homework (describing painful memories and feeling the feelings until bored). Learned to address guilt and not to minimize own trauma. Joined the Veterans Community Project which builds small houses designed for veterans. After the fall of Afghanistan, helped evacuate his translator’s family and cofounded the Afghan Rescue Project. Of note:
PTSD service dogs can actually anticipate panic attacks by smelling perspiration and wake you out of bad dreams. Worried about security, Kander mistakenly got a hyper-vigilant guard dog which had its own PTSD).
WWII vets had fewer medical resources, but were also surrounded by people with similar experiences. Today, 0.4% of Americans are serving in the armed forces.
Grew up outside San Francisco with Iranian father (sold rugs), American mother. Nephew, father, and professor/friend Christopher Hitchens all died 2011. Developed friendship with Anthony Bourdain over food.
Detention: Iranian wife became Bloomberg’s Tehran correspondent in 2011, Rezaian became Washington Post correspondent (contractor) in 2012. Visited Iranian mission to UN and was told “Iran is a pluralistic society and we welcome rigorous debate.” Married in 2013, “moderate” Hassan Rouhani elected president. Noticed phishing attack of Gmail, arrested by IRGC July 2014. Accused of espionage, Baha’i/MEK sympathies, affiliations with Mossad and MI6. 42 nights in solitary confinement before partial “confession” earned sponsored shopping trip to mall and normal cell with mate(s). “Behind tears of anxiety you might find a deep reservoir of indignation.” Eventually got Iran state broadcast TV and weekly meetings with mother and conjugal visits with wife (Islamic law mandates intimacy every six weeks in marriage). Began trial May 2015 on charges of espionage and spreading propaganda. Court tried to intimidate with Koran reading (Iran conducted 977 official executions in 2015), but Rezaian didn’t speak Arabic. Careful to not concede the slightest hint of wrongdoing (strategy throughout was to tell them he’d do what they told him to do and then do the opposite).
Negotiations: Brother Ali Rezaian and Washington Post drove steady pressure campaign (#FreeJason). David Ignatius raised twice in forums with Iranian Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. President Obama, Muhammad Ali (popular in Iran), Noam Chomsky all voiced support. Was naïve to think talks could resolve (“countries worried about saving face don’t take hostages”). Deal almost fell through because Iranian prisoners in US didn’t want to leave, then delayed hours when Iran tried to keep Rezaian’s wife. Treated in Germany, Jeff Bezos flew home on private jet. Began journalism fellowship at Harvard.
Iran: Most IRGC realized they were lying, but convinced themselves they occupied the higher moral ground. Iranians value freedom to buy things and access entertainment more than speak out and choose leaders. Iran has consistently viewed hostage-taking as a tactic since the 42 Americans in 1979.
Anecdotes: Guard wanted Will Smith to play him in a movie. Guards wanted him to sing, so he made them stand up, then sung US national anthem and accused them of respecting the Great Satan. Whenever he walked into a wall while blind folded, he’d yell “My human rights!” and everyone laughed. Shias go unshaven when they grieve, so when asked about a beard, said he was mourning “justice in the Islamic Republic.” Last day, guard asked “while we still have you, can you explain the electoral college? It makes no sense.” Movies removed anti-Muslim elements (e.g. in Philadelphia, Tom Hanks and Antonio Banderas were brothers).
The Tarahumara live humbly in cliff dwellings in the copper canyons of Northern Mexico. They are private but also welcoming, drink heavily, and the best distance runners in the world (in thin rubber sandals). Dominated the 1994 Leadville, CO 100-mile ultramarathon, before returning to obscurity. A pacer from the race, Michael Hickman/Micah True, joined them as the “Caballo Blanco” and in 2006 organized a 50-mile race in Mexico. Author joined with trainer Eric, national champ Scott Jurek, barefoot running evangelist Ted, and young party animals Jenn and Billy.
Compiles evidence that top-of-the-line shoes are more likely to cause injuries, feet benefit from a good beating, and pronation (landing on the outside of your foot) is good. Companies like Nike knew this but continued to push new models of padded shoes for years before adopting the barefoot shoe. Admits it’s not smart to go suddenly barefoot after years of immobilization.
Running is as much about psychology as physiology. Imagine your child running into the street and you have to sprint after them in bare feet and you’ll lock into perfect form–back erect, head steady, arms high, elbows driving, and feet touching quickly on forefeet and kicking back towards butt. Stay below your hard-breathing point during endurance runs to train your body to burn fat not sugar. Hills are speedwork in disguise. Eat less and better.
Whereas chimps are walking animals, humans have springy legs, arched feet, shorter toes, Achilles’ tendon, bigger butts, and vertical bodies that make us the world’s greatest marathoners (humans actually have longer strides than horses and can outrun them at 50 miles). Most animals can’t pant while they run but humans have sweat glands and hairless skin to help remove heat. Marathoners start at 19, peak at 27, but don’t decline below 19 until they’re 64. The only reason most humans don’t like to run is because we have a body built for performance but a mind built for efficiency, always looking to conserve energy.
-Born 1914, Marvel “Jack” Parsons raised by divorced mother and grandparents in enlightened, aesthetic, wealthy Pasadena, CA. Spoilt and solitary, read adventure novels voraciously. Expelled from San Diego military school for explosives. Attracted by LA’s climate and backed by wealthy financiers, aircraft pioneers like Glenn Martin, John Northrop, and Donald Douglas set up in abandoned movie studios. But rocketry was nascent, championed only by a few Russians, Germans, and Robert Goddard (out of Clark University, then self-imposed exile to New Mexico). Parsons exchanged ideas with 17yo Werner von Braun in Germany until WWII broke out. Got into Stanford but Depression bankrupted family, so worked at chemical company where learned about high (for demolition, e.g. dynamite) and low (for propulsion e.g. gunpowder) explosives. CalTech hosted Hubble’s telescopes, which drew Einstein as a visiting fellow and attracted other talent. Elite aerodynamics professor Theodore von Karman allowed Parsons (chemist), Ed Forman (engineer) and Frank Malina (mathematician) to use the Guggenheim Aerospace Laboratories (GALCIT). Known as “Suicide Squad” for frequent accidents and explosions. Parsons and Forman held duels were they shot 50 yd apart and whoever came the closest without hitting the other won.
-GALCIT received US military funding in 1939 to use jets on bombers to reduce runway required, which they did successfully (12 second burn) in 1941. Successfully applied liquid fuel to an A-20A bomber in 1942 and won their first production contract for 60 Jet-Assisted Takeoff (JATO) engines. With help of Karman’s friend Andrew Haley, trio founded Aerojet Engineering Company. Parsons also pushed solid fuel rocketry forward by replacing the black powder with asphalt, inventing castable fuel. After British intelligence discovered German V2 rockets, Air Corps Jet propulsion research program was renamed Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) and GALCIT ran. Parsons sold his share of Aerojet in 1944 for around $11,000 (from initial $250 investment, though by 1960 would’ve been worth $12M). In Oct 1945, a JPL rocket reached 43 miles (only Malina was there to see it). When wife Candy left for Mexico, Parsons worked a slew of jobs, including at North American Aviation and Hughes Aircraft (though he was fired and nearly prosecuted for trying to share unclassified but sensitive documents with Israel to move there and advance their rocket program). Parsons accidentally blew himself up in 1952, 5 years before Sputnik. Has a crater on the dark side of the moon named after him.
-Parsons was socialist but stopped short of joining the Communist Party. Parsons was a talented poet and crossed paths with Ray Bradbury at the LA Science Fantasy Society. Already well-read on the supernatural world, Parsons began attending LA chapter of the Order Templi Orientis (OTO), founded by Aleister Crowley, an aging member of the Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn (a British mystical society which believed if properly disciplined, humans could contact intelligences outside the physical world). Parsons viewed magic as a bastard sister of science, believing it could be mastered by concentrated scientific application. Parsons dispatched wife Helen for half sister Betty and moved into an OTO house, where took on leadership role. FBI opened file regarding “love cult” but searches never yielded evidence of crime (Parsons engaged in sex rituals, drugs, and debauchery, but mindful of his gov’t clearance distanced himself from violent elements of Crowley’s teachings). Parsons welcomed L Ron Hubbard into the OTO house, though Hubbard stole Betty and hornswaggled $20K to sail out of Miami on a yacht. Parsons began conducting black magic rituals, which he believed summoned his second wife, “Candy” Cameron. Hubbard also used some elements of OTO in Dianetics, the foundation for scientology.
-Glass trade made the Roosevelts’ wealth, though Theodore Sr might have been richer if hadn’t declined investment in Alexander Graham Bell’s telephone. Founded NY Orthopedic Hospital, directed American Museum of Natural History, and helped organize the pedestal for the Statue of Liberty. To his children, Theodore Sr (“Greatheart”) was both the ultimate authority and their most exuberant companion. Theodore hired a substitute to avoid the draft (legal but costly), three of Mittie’s Old Plantation Savannah family eagerly joined the Confederacy. Theodore’s brother was Democrat but he fell in with corruption-busting Republicans. Nearly replaced Chester “Chet” Arthur as Collector of the Port of New York, but Senator Roscoe Conkling blocked. Died of cancer two months later.
-Family lived on E 20th St in Manhattan but bought a house in Oyster Bay on Long Island (later renamed Sagamore Hill). Teddy’s asthma attacks started around age 3, coming unexpectedly, often at night, forcing parents to walk or ride hoping a sudden change of air would bring relief. Accustomed Teddy to being the center of attention, but also drove a tenacity for life and put other discomforts in perspective. In 1869, the family toured Europe for a year for cultural enrichment and Teddy’s health. Teddy kept a methodical daily record and read constantly, often standing on one leg using the other leg as a book rest. On a family trip down the Nile, Teddy donned spectacles and a gun and fell in love with hunting.
-At Harvard, a mutton-chopped Teddy lived lavishly (spent twice the average student) in a private apartment with a personal horse. A figure of incessant energy, participated in rowing, wrestling, Rifle Club, Art Club, Glee Club (couldn’t sing but could help raise money), Natural History Society, started Finance Club, undergraduate magazine, and Phi Beta Kappa. Active participant in class, thoughts charging out faster than “sputtering” words. Alice Lee declined first proposal, but accepted second. Conducted exhaustive research for book, Naval War of 1812.
-Curiosity and “duty” led him to run for NY State Assembly at age 23, with support of father’s friends (e.g. J. P. Morgan) and opportunity posed by Conkling resignation over scuffle with President Garfield. Won acclaim bravely accusing NY Supreme Court Judge T.R. Westbrook for complicity with powerful businessman Jay Gould. Tragically lost Mittie (typhoid fever) and Alice (Bright’s disease) on the same day, two days after birth of daughter Alice. Refusing sympathy, barely spoke of the matter and delegated raising Alice to sister Anna (“Bamie”). Poured himself into his work and attended Republican National Convention to in effort to support George Edmunds. After Blaine was chosen (to lose to Democrat Grover Cleveland), Teddy took a series of trips to the Bad Lands 1883-86. Lived well (and near anonymously) in 8BR house and lost ~$70K, but worked hard with ranchers and cowboys and wrote two books.
-Aftermath: Remarried family friend Edith Carow, Civil Service Commission, NYC Police Commissioner, A/S Navy, Rough Riders, Governor of NY, Vice President, and President. Youngest President (42), first raised in a big city with strong following in the West. Expanded the Navy, built Panama Canal, ended Russo-Japanese War, established 5 national parks (and 14 national monuments). Brother Elliot died of alcoholism but fathered Eleanor Roosevelt.
FBI History
1908: Bureau of Investigation created to investigate antitrust cases and fraud involving public lands. Sullied by Palmer Raids (1919) and Harding Administration corruption (1921-23).
1924: Hoover named permanent Director. Established impeccable integrity standards and regular inspections, standardized Manual of Investigations, first centralized filing system, and FBI lab.
1935: Name changed to Federal Bureau of Investigation. Gained jurisdiction and prominence in battle against “public enemies.” FDR ordered to investigate pro-fascist groups, which shifted in the 1940s/50s to Communists and spies.
Hoover dressed well, worked hard, demanded perfection. Didn’t visit FOs often; managed bureaucratically through ruthless metrics and memos. Was the only employee allowed to write in blue pen, and insisted the smaller loop of the paper clip face up. Promoted obsequious assistant directors (e.g. William Sullivan) and made a habit of working around the Attorney General straight with the President (although RFK established dominance with direct-line phone on Hoover’s desk). Was a product of growing up in a segregated DC and took a paternalistic view towards blacks and women—but didn’t hate black people as a group. Had “no call” (nap) time each day after lunch. Drank but not during work, was not to be bothered (even by POTUS) at a horserace. Associate Director Clyde Tolson and Secretary Helen Gandy were alter egos. Gandy disliked Tolson, had a crush on Melvin Purvis, but was “married to the FBI.” No credible evidence Hoover was gay, and cross-dressing rumor is patently false (only claimed by British author in 1993 who paid a broke and embittered ex-wife of Hoover’s friend for the tip). Hoover had a knack for PR (e.g. The F.B.I. TV show), but blew up when staff mistakenly wrote tablespoon instead of teaspoon in popover recipe. Fired Purvis for accepting too much credit for Dillinger; Purvis later became alcoholic and committed suicide. Evaluated everything in terms of its impact on the Bureau (when he opposed wiretapping it wasn’t over civil liberties, but fear of public blowback). In 1965, FBIHQ (or Seat of Government—“SOG”), had ten divisions, including the Crime Records Division, which was essentially the PR department, and wrote most of book Masters of Deceit.
-Relationships with Presidents: FDR expanded FBI authorities, but overruled Hoover’s strong opposition to “relocating” Japanese. Truman distrusted Hoover, and would only engage through AG. Eisenhower expanded FBI background checks for federal employment, dismissing ~5,000 gays. JFK was professional, despite appearing twice on taps for sleeping with suspected German spy Inga Arvad and Chicago mob boss girlfriend Judith Campbell. LBJ was longtime friend and neighbor of Hoover, and exploited the FBI for gossip and his own political purposes.
-MLK: In early 1960s, learned top MLK advisor Stanley Levison was working on behalf of the Communist Party USA and its controllers, the Soviets. Wiretapped discovery of affairs/drinking only added to Hoover’s contempt, which AD Sullivan disgracefully used as blackmail (sent recording and fake letter). Going public hurt Hoover much more than MLK. When Letersky told Hoover MLK was shot, he responded, “I hope he doesn’t die. If he does, they’ll make martyr out of him.”
-COINTELPRO: Included programs against White Power, Black Nationalists, and New Left, in which FBI took active measures to disrupt, confuse, influence, and demoralize the enemy (overt surveillance, anonymous calls/postcards, false accusations, scores of informants). Targeted KKK, but also Black Panthers, Weather Underground members, and peaceful protesters of the Vietnam War.
-Nixon: Nixon had applied to the FBI in 1937 and befriended Hoover during Red Scare. Hoover reluctantly tapped 17 people to identify Cambodia bombing leaker, but refused “Huston Plan” to expand COINTELPRO. After Pentagon Papers, Nixon created Special Investigations Unit (the “Plumbers”) under G. Gordon Libby (fmr FBI) and E. Howard Hunt (fmr CIA). Nixon ultimately decided to wait until after 1972 election to fire Hoover. Much to Nixon’s relief, Hoover died May 1972.
-Death/Aftermath: Nixon passed over ADs Mark Felt and John Mohr (Hoover had fired Sullivan) for his DOJ loyalist L. Patrick Gray who had never handled a criminal case. As Hoover instructed, Miss Gandy gave official files to AD Felt and shredded his “personal” files. Gray allowed women agents but intentionally obstructed the Watergate investigation. Following a 1971 break-in at a PA RA and subsequent FOIA requests confirming COINTELPRO: New Left, FBI approval fell to only 37% and Felt was actually convicted (though never served prison).
Letersky: Jointed 1965, clerked on Director’s staff 1966-68, Quantico Agent class 1968-04, Cincinnati FO (smugglers, Vietnam dodgers and student protesters), Washington FO Alexandria RA (violent crime, plane hijackings), retired 1973. United Airlines and Pan American World Airlines.
-American Sumner Jackson volunteered for the British Army as a physician in WWI and joined the staff at the American Hospital in Paris. Lived with wife Toquette and son Phillip at 11 Avenue Foch, a street of elegant houses near the Arc de Triomphe which was almost entirely claimed by Gestapo (SS). When the Nazis entered, Jackson stayed and continued to see patients, using French connections to win supplies and deception to evacuate British soldiers. Toquette recruited by the French resistance to use house as drop site; helped smuggle German V-1 plans to London.
-The Wehrmacht Generals lost seniority over the Gestapo chiefs once the “Final Solution” emerged. Most Jews were arrested by French policemen; Vichy Marshal Philippe Petain remained personally popular—though not his government. The most lethal and best organized resistance were the young, scrappy Communists.
-Gestapo sadists conducted brutal torture of resistance members, used “mousetraps,” and placed sources everywhere—including concentration camps. 20 July 1944 attempted Hitler assassination/coup resulted in temporary arrest of Gestapo chiefs in France by Wehrmacht, but when Hitler survived, both sides were embarrassed and agreed to call it an “exercise.”
-Jacksons were arrested just two days before D-Day and evacuated to Germany just before allies liberated Paris. Moved between several camps; Toquette ended up in Ravensbruck; Sumner and Philippe in Neuengamme. The day before VE Day, Sumner was killed when an RAF plane bombed a boat of prisoners in the German port of Lubbock. Phillip swam ashore and became a German translator for the British Army, and testified in Gestapo trials.
MIT scientist (twice divorced), started the Seattle Love Lab in 1986 which observed couples with cameras/physiological measurements. A good marriage directly benefits health and immune system (“if fitness buffs spent 20 min/day on their marriage they’d reap more rewards”). Happy couples aren’t smarter/richer; but use emotional intelligence to preserve a dynamic which keeps negative thoughts/feelings (which all couples have) from overwhelming their positive ones (“positive sentiment override”). While most therapy focuses on communication and conflict resolution, more important is protecting the sense of friendship, intimacy, adventure, and learning at the heart of the marriage.
Six Signs of Divorce:
Harsh Start-Ups
Four Horseman:
Criticism: Attacks on character are never constructive (complaints about specific behavior/event are ok)
Contempt: Sense of superiority over partner
Defensiveness: Transfers blame to partner, escalates
Stonewalling: Tuning partner out
Flooding: Negative emotion so intense it removes ability to process information, problem solve, or have a sense of humor. Frequent flooding leads to emotion distancing and loneliness.
Negative Body Language
Failed Repair Attempts
Dominance of Bad Memories: Important to be able to fall back on positive memories
Seven Principles of Making Marriage Work: As you work on each, it becomes easier to work on the others.
Enhance Love Maps: Be intimately familiar with your partner’s world (e.g. know what they’re doing at work and check in regularly to see how it’s going).
Nurture Fondness and Admiration: Consistently remind yourself of your partner’s positive qualities (e.g. catch them doing something right and offer genuine appreciation)
Turn Toward Each Other Instead of Away: Being sensitive to your partner’s bids for affection or support builds goodwill (“when they are in pain, the world stops and you listen,” even when directed at you; maybe get out pen and paper)
Let Your Partner Influence You: Always be open to compromising and learning from your partner
Solve Your Solvable Problems:
Soften your startup: (1) I share some responsibility… (2) Here’s how I feel… (3) pertaining to this specific situation… (4) here’s what I need… (positive need, not what you don’t need).
Learn to make and receive repair attempts: Examples: I’m sorry; can I try that again? I’m starting to feel flooded, can we take a break? Or use humor.
Compromise: Like it or not, the only way to solve marital problems
Process any grievances so they don’t linger
Overcome Gridlock: 69% of problems are perpetual, but you don’t have to solve every issue to thrive. Occur when deep-seeded dreams collide. Write explanation of position without criticism or blame. Each partner gets 15 minutes to explain why so important to them. Don’t try to solve, but defang by defining core areas you can’t yield on and areas of flexibility. End on a positive note.
Create Shared Meaning
Rituals of connection (e.g. family dinners, annual weekend retreat)
Support for roles (e.g. views on parenting)
Shared goals (e.g. retirement, raising generous children)
Shared values and symbols (e.g. family stories)
Ethical Frameworks:
Virtue (Aristotle): Seek to maximize happiness (not pleasure, but flourishing) by adhering to universal virtues (seek a balanced “golden mean”).
Consequentialism / Utilitarianism (Bentham, Mill): Maximize overall societal happiness (measured in hedons/dolors). Problems: Lots of people, preferences vary, sacrifice one for greater cause (can’t be a “happiness pump”).
Deontology (Kant): Categorical imperative; everyone must follow universal rules.
Contractualism (Scanlon): Follow all foundational rules that no one can reasonably reject. (Reasonableness: scale from doormat to asshole).
Singerism (Singer): Anything beyond bare necessities should be donated to the less fortunate. Extreme, but reminder the rich should do more.
Existentialism (Sarte, Camus): We have freedom to make our own choices in a cold, indifferent, meaningless universe.
Veil of Ignorance (Rawls): Configure society fairly without knowing what persona you will become.
Other Topics:
Moral Desert: If we do good deeds, we should be rewarded. Charity is ideally for mindfulness, but probably still good regardless of motive.
Moral Currency: Enough good deeds cancel out our bad ones. We can’t follow rules every time, but be wary of slippery slope (“Overton Window” aka shifting norms can be good or bad).
Cancel Culture: Some things changeable (e.g. team names, confederate statues, problematic beliefs), others not (history of sexual assault, slaveholding). It’s possible to hold two thoughts at once (i.e. good and bad qualities). Not everyone will the draw the line in the same place.
Context: Not everyone has the luxury to ponder ethics. Middle-class white men born immune from racism, sexism, ableism, misogyny, famine, poverty, etc. We all downplay the role of luck.
Apologizing: Difficult, but critical to becoming a better person. Explain how it happened, acknowledge you blew it, identify who you hurt, and express regret. Guilt is over an action; shame is humiliation for who we are. Liars know they’re lying; bullshitters are wholly unconcerned with truth–only how they come across to their audience.
-Anatoly Golitsin defected in 1961 and told interrogators the CIA had a mole of Slavic background whose last name began with K, ended with -sky, and KGB code name was “Sasha.” Frustrated by his inflated sense of importance (e.g. wanted to meet POTUS) and antics (e.g. diagnosed paranoia), the Soviet Division handed him off to the Counterintelligence Staff. The more he was interrogated, his allegations snowballed (e.g. when Orlov wasn’t a staff officer, he claimed he must have recruited his handler). Retrospective studies confirmed Golitsin’s bona fides but found his value to be minimal.
-James Jesus “the gray ghost” Angleton, humiliated by his prior acquaintance with Kim Philby (also involved with turncoats Bela Herczeg and Edward Ellis Smith), developed a degree of suspicion which undermined his judgment. He made up for whatever rank he lacked through close relationships with CIA directors—particularly Alan Dulles and Richard Helms—and weaponized power by investigating bureaucratic rivals. Angleton loyalists included Pete Bagley, and Scotty Miler. Golitsin presented an opportunity to accumulate more power, and Angleton even gave him classified documents.
-CI Staff and/or SIG investigated over 120 CIA officers over nearly 20 years, stalling or ending many careers. Some of those investigated:
Pete Karlow, a WWII veteran and CIA equipment wizard, served in Germany and had a Slavic-sounding birth name (Serge Klibansky). He was interrogated/polygraphed for five days and dismissed in 1963.
Richard “Dushan” Kovich handled Pyotr Popov and recruited three sources which Angleton believed dangles:
Ingeborg Lygren (Norwegian staffer at Moscow embassy falsely arrested, mole later found to be Gunvor Haavik)
Mikhail Federov (GRU illegal)
Yuri Loginov (KGB illegal in Helsinki, who Angleton discredited for supporting Nosenko’s bona fides; was shamefully traded to USSR and executed).
Paul Garbler was the first chief of the Moscow station and ran Oleg Penkovsky. Despite high promise, he was shipped from Soviet Division to the Farm and then Trinidad station (partially redeemed with a final stint as CoS Stockholm).
Igor Orlov (Franz Koischwitz, or Sasha), had been a Soviet intelligence officer against the Nazis, then German officer against the Soviets, then a CIA source (run by Garbler) in Berlin who managed 10+ sub-sources working at a piano bar in the Soviet sector. His CIA interrogators threatened his mother in Russia, so he went to the Russian embassy to contact her—which Angleton took as proof of his guilt. A defector Igor Kochnov (KITTY HAWK) corroborated Orlov’s betrayal. Orlov and his framing business in Old Town Alexandria remained under surveillance for 15 years. Years later in 1985, defector Vitaly Yurchenko claimed he had recruited Orlov’s sons, whom the FBI investigated and cleared.
Alexander Sogolow, a Russian-born case officer with the misfortune to be known as “Sasha.”
George Goldberg, a Latvian born WWII vet who recruited KGB dangle Boris Belitsky.
Vasia Gmirkin, a case officer in the Soviet Division, who never received a promotion in 17 years.
Averell Harriman, former ambassador to the USSR who accepted the bugged seal.
David Murphy, a CIA chief of the Soviet division, who went on to be COS Paris. Angleton went behind his back to warn the French he was under suspicion.
Eventually, Pete Bagley, then Angleton himself fell under suspicion by some (later dismissed).
Golitsin’s claims also led to molehunts of individuals in other countries:
England: Harold Wilson (politician), Roger Hollis (MI5 director general) / Graham Mitchell (MI5 deputy)
France: Jacques Foccart and Louis Joxe (politicians), Georges Paques (NATO HQ employee, turned out to be true).
Canada: Leslie James Bennett (chief of Soviet counterespionage)
-Yuri Nosenko (AEFOXTROT) offered his services in 1962 and defected in 1964, however Angleton and Bagley immediately declared him a plant. Nosenko denied KGB operational control of JFK-assassin Lee Harvey Oswald, described how Penkovsky was caught (camera in flower box revealed secret desk compartment), and provided background on the one-time walk-in Aleksandr Cherepanov. Whereas Golitsin said Sasha was a CIA mole, Nosenko insisted it was an Army officer. Nosenko was confined, harassed, and polygraphed at the Farm for four years and eight months. Meanwhile, the FBI was evaluating the bona fides of two New York KGB sources—Aleksei Kulak (FEDORA) and Dimitri Polyakov (TOPHAT).
-Upon becoming director in 1973, William Colby assessed the mole hunt had little evidence, was overstepping bounds (Angleton took over the Israel account), and was illegally opening first-class mail. Colby shrunk the CI Staff from hundreds to ~50, removed CI veto over operations, and used Seymour Hersh’s “family jewels” reporting as predication to dismiss Angleton. 1980 Mole Relief Act provided compensation for Kovich and Garbler, though Karlow had to wait until 1989. Following “Year of the Spy” in 1985, Director William Webster reorganized the Counterintelligence Staff into a Counterintelligence Center.
“As with so much in counterintelligence, almost every event can have an explanation with is either sinister or innocent, depending on one’s viewpoint.”
Introduction / General
Equipment: Anodized Aluminum conducts heat better than stainless steal (not as well as expensive copper), but doesn’t retain heat as well as cast-iron.
Convection oven has fan inside to reduce cool zones; can subtract 25° from recipes.
Using weight instead of volume improves accuracy and reduces cleanup. Use digital thermometer over bake time charts.
Fridge crisper drawers prevent fresh cold air from circulating and drying out vegetables.
Hardened brown sugar can be restored by microwaving for 30 seconds.
Boil: Quiver (130°-170°), Simmer, Boil (212°).
Types of taste: sweetness, saltiness, sourness, bitterness, and savory (umami).
Breakfast
Eggs: Most versatile protein. Labels: Standard size is large. Grades (e.g. A, B) are purely cosmetic. Pasteurized unnecessary unless raw preparations. Omega-3 come from chickens fed flaxseed.
Eggs best in sub-simmer (180°). When poaching, use a fine mesh strainer to eliminate loose egg white proteins. Meringue: egg whites whipped vigorously.
Clarified butter removes water/proteins. Hollandaise (eggs benedict): butterfat, egg yolks, lemon juice. Bernaise (steak): butterfat, egg yolks, tarragon-and-shallot-scented vinegar-and-white-wine reduction.
If cooking bacon for a crowd, use oven.
Potato hash in a cast-iron skillet is the ultimate leftover consumer (potatoes first, then can add meats, greens, vegetables; eggs last)
Leavening agents: yeast (biological, slow); baking soda (chemical, fast, needs acid like buttermilk or baking powder). In place of buttermilk, can sub milk and yogurt or sour cream.
Soups, Stews, and Stock
Stocks require flavorful compounds from muscle fibers and gelatin from connective tissue
Sweating: slowly cooking chopped vegetables in a fat; Browning: takes place over high heat, eventually resulting in caramelization.
Cutting onions: Cut off top & bottom, cut in half longitudinally, and slice (then other way to dice, if desired).
Ground beef has too much surface area for liquids to escape—better to brown full cuts and then ground in a food processor. Chuck is the ideal stew cut.
Steaks, Chicken, and Fish
Similar beef cuts can be used for roasts (2+in) and steaks (<2in). The most tender muscles are the ones least used by the steer. Marbling lubricates the muscle fibers and provides most of the flavor. Stick to Prime-, Choice-, or Select-Grade.
Caramelization: sugars are heated; Maillard: proteins are heated. Adds savoriness and flavor complexity.
Marinate 1-12 hours and/or salt 40+min before cooking. Use heaviest pan you’ve got. Olive oil > butter. For max moisture and flavor, cook medium rare (130°) using digital thermometer. Resting 10+ min allows muscle fibers to widen, allowing them to retain juice. Cut perpendicular to the grain to maximize tenderness.
Leidenfrost Effect: Drop of water on 400° pan actually evaporates slower than 300° because the heat lifts it clear off the surface of the pan.
Grills: charcoal > gas grill > stovetop range.
Brining: helps retain moisture but reduces flavor (unnecessary). Conservative FDA recommendations leave chicken dry; cooking to 150° for 3 minutes is as safe as 165°.
Can cook sous-vide using zipper-lock bags and beer cooler.
Cooking Vegetables
Blanching / Steaming (e.g. broccoli): Boil or steam, then run under cold water (just as effective as ice water). Vegetables should be cooked in plenty of water and with the lid off to dilute acidity by-product. Microwave very good for heating up liquids and steaming vegetables (cover in damp paper towel).
Searing / Sauteing (e.g. brussels sprouts): Searing focuses on browning the exterior, while sauteing seeks more even cook.
Braising (e.g. asparagus): slow cooking in a moist environment. For full tenderization, veggies must be cooked to at least 183°—when pectin breaks down—but they cook faster than meats.
Glazing (e.g. carrots): long cooking in a skillet with butter, chicken stock, sugar, and salt.
Roasting / Broiling (e.g. cauliflower): very high heat in oven.
Ground Meat
Sausage: Ground meat with salt. Let rest before cooking; stuffing casings takes time. Grill gently or in a pan (e.g. tray of sauerkraut).
Meat loaf: Ground meat with seasonings. Often mix of beef, pork, and veal—can replace veal with gelatin.
Hamburger: Pure ground beef. Pack slightly wider than bun, and indent the middle to ensure proper shape. Do not salt until patty is formed. If you want to smash (Maillard reaction), do so in first 30 seconds to prevent moisture loss. Multiple flips ok.
If you grind your own meat, keep it clean and cold to prevent smearing. Grinding renders tenderness moot, so try to maximize flavorfulness (fat and salt).
Roasts
Chicken/Turkey: Labeling: Unless organic, not significantly different than conventional. Kosher (washed/salted) and air chilled (no ice water) are both good. Buy 1 lb raw bird (~½lb actual meat) per person. Chicken/turkey breast to 140°; legs to 170° (challenge resolved by butterflying). For crispiest skin, pat dry. Rest until 143°.
Beef Roasts: Prime rib, Sirloin, Fillet, Chuck. For perfection, cook at 200°, take out, then blast at 550°. Tie with string to keep shape.
Pasta
Pasta is flour and water (and sometimes eggs). Conventional wisdom of rolling boil in large pot is overstated. Adding oil to water can help prevent boiling over, but adding after draining prevents sauce from sticking to pasta (butter does the opposite). For baked pasta, can just soak dry pasta instead of cooking prior to baking.
Five basic sauces: Olive oil/garlic, Tomato, Pesto, Cream, Meat-Based. Garlic should be hard, firm, heavy. Oregano, rosemary, bay leaf, thyme, and sage are just as good dry as fresh. For canned tomatoes, use whole peeled in juice (diced too firm, crushed inconsistent, puree too cooked). Vodka adds a touch of bite to balance the sweetness of tomatoes and cream. For Bolognese, uses ground lamb, pork, and veal; don’t skim fat—sauce should reabsorb.
Salads
Greens: Crisp (iceberg, romaine, bibb), Peppery (arugula, watercress), Mild (spinach), Bitter (radicchio, endive)
Green Vegetables: Blanch in boiling salted water and shock in ice water. American cucumbers more flavorful than English, but have to remove watery middle seeds.
Fruits: Raw (apples, pears, citrus), Dried (cranberries), Pan-Roasted.
Dressings: Vinaigrettes (3 oil: 1 vinegar: ½ mustard), Mayonnaise-based (Caesar), Dairy-based (ranch)
Frying
Basics: Keep meat dry, keep oil clean and moving, minimize splashing, drain using paper towels, reuse oil (6-8 times, just keep cool, dark, relatively airtight). Peanut oil is standard; can add 1/8 ratio of bacon grease. Don’t heat past smoke point (~400°F).
Batters and breadings protect meat, allowing more even cooking. Types: flour dredge (fried chicken), standard/panko bread crumb (chicken parm), beer (fish and chips), and light/thin (tempura).
Published 1936. Read hundreds of biographies and interviews about successful people. Core findings: Don’t criticize/complain, give sincere appreciation, understand their point of view, and emphasize what’s in it for them. Criticism automatically puts them on the defensive. Any fool can criticize–it takes character to be understanding and forgiving. The only way to get someone to do something is to make them want to do it.
To make people like you:
Be enthusiastic and remember their name
Be genuinely interested in them (find their “push to talk” button)
Be a good listener and make them feel important (we’re all motivated by vanity)
To persuade people:
The best way to win an argument is to avoid it (rarely productive, even when you’re right)
Listen first, look for areas of agreement, and control your temper
Say “I may be wrong, I often am. Let’s examine the facts.” Never say “you’re wrong.”
If you’re wrong, admit it quickly and emphatically.
Be polite, friendly, gentle, and get them saying yes early to build momentum.
Let them do the talking and understand their point of view (“the only reason you’re not a rattlesnake is your parents weren’t rattlesnakes”).
Let them think it’s their idea
Appeal to their nobler motives (e.g. “I still think you’re a man of integrity, take a few days and let me know…”)
To lead:
Begin with praise and honest appreciation (Compliment sandwich, “and” > “but.” Must be sincere, otherwise just flattery)
Call attention to mistakes only indirectly (carrots > sticks).
Talk about your own mistakes first (general self-deprecation or use particular experience as cautionary tale).
Ask questions instead of giving orders
Let the other person save face; make the fault seem easy to correct.
Published 1956. Walter Lippmann: “Most successful politicians advance only as they placate, appease, bribe, seduce, bamboozle, and otherwise manipulate the demanding and threatening elements in their constituencies. The decisive consideration is not whether the proposition is good but whether it is popular.” Senators are motivated by a desire to be liked and re-elected. But they are not robots merely reflecting public opinion, voters elect candidates because they are confident in their judgment to determine nation’s best interests. Deciding on which issue to risk your career on is a difficult decision–even more so today with the power of mass communications. Eight Senators who followed their inner conviction even when unpopular with their party or constituents:
John Quincy Adams (MA-Federalist): As Congressman, left Federalist Party to support Louisiana Purchase and condemn British aggressions. Resigned seat to defend Jefferson.
Daniel Webster (MA-Whig): On 7 March 1950, gave 3+ hour speech advocating preservation of the union. Delayed Civil War 10 years, allowing north to grow economically stronger.
Thomas Hart Benton (MO-D): Prevented Missouri from seceding.
Sam Houston (TX-D): Wildly popular former commander-in-chief of Texas, fought Texas secession and resigned when they finally did.
Edmund Ross (KS-R): Protected the presidency by casting the deciding vote preventing a politically-driven impeachment of Andrew Johnson.
Lucius Quintus Cincinnatus Lamar (MS-D): Served in Confederacy but moving eulogy of Charles Sumner (MA-R) helped repair union; defended Republican Rutherford Hayes’ win.
George Norris (NE-R): Bucked party by weakening dictatorial Speaker of the House position (1910); filibustering Armed Ship Bill (1917); and supporting Al Smith for President (1928)
Robert A Taft (OH-R): Son of William Taft; rival of Harry Truman. Bravely spoke out against Nuremberg Trials as ex post facto law (“vengeance is seldom justice”)
-Background: Admiral Raymond Spruance chose heavy cruiser Indianapolis as flagship to avoid enlarging target on carrier or battleship. Indianapolis shelled Iwo Jima and Okinawa outskirts, but a March 1945 kamikaze attack killed 9 and knocked out one shaft. A second of four propellers was accidentally dropped during repairs, forcing it to return stateside for repairs.
Major Gen Leslie Groves set up his own intelligence asset (Robert Furman) to determine how close the Nazis were to a bomb and recover and fissile material. Bomb left Los Alamos before Trinity test, under the escort of Furman and Manhattan doctor Nolan. Little Boy was in large crate, uranium among standard luggage. Indianapolis Captain Charles McVay knew only it was highly classified cargo; men made bets (e.g. car for McArthur). Despite small fire and junior officer nearly capsizing on too tight a turn, set record speed to Pearl Harbor, then set off again without letting crew disembark to deliver bomb to Tinian and then on to Guam. Lowered speed continuing on to Leyte to reduce wear on engines; asked for escort but none available. Destroyer Harris found submarine but a calibration error meant missiles were 10° off. Codebreakers received ULTRA intelligence about submarine activity; but warning complicated by fact Indianapolis was “chopping” (changing operational commands).
-Attack: July 30, 1945, three torpedoes hit. McVay abandoned ship once engine room and radio rooms dysfunctional and 45° tilt. Survivors fled vacuum effect of sinking in oil-slicked 80° water. Packs of survivors formed, heaving from inhaled oil. In sun, oil melted and stung eyes. Oil obscured ranks, though leaders emerged to ration food. Thirst killed those who drank saltwater the fastest. Hallucinations rampant. Oceanic white tip sharks were visible below, swimmers felt like they were walking on them. Mostly targeted dead. Victim lost arm, fought off attack but men fought him off raft for fear of chum attracting more. Raft constellations spread wide for maximum visibility; launched flares at night. Ocean swells limited visibility. Prayer, pep talks, and singing boosted morale.
Spotted by USN bomber midday Aug 2. Survivors rescued through next day by two Catalinas and at least six ships which bravely sped to the area with search lights on. Nearly 900 of 1,195 crew died; worst incident since Pearl Harbor and last sea deaths of WWII. Little Boy dropped (August 6), Russia declared war on Japan (August 8), Fat Man dropped (August 9), Japan surrendered (August 15).
-Aftermath: Navy waited to announce sinkage in press until VJ Day (to bury story). Admiral Nimitz ordered court of inquiry (fact finding) in Guam. Initial report raised questions about failure to warn, but primarily blamed Indianapolis for not sending distress call. Admiral Ernest King initially ordered supplementary investigation, then–upon realizing how high up the food chain questioning would go–abruptly moved forward to court martial McVay. Trial at Navy Yard brought Japanese sub commander Hashimoto. McVay was found guilty for failing to “zigzag,” but analysts who failed to warn of increased sub activity received no punishment. Survivors defended McVay and provided warm welcome at 1960 reunion. but many victims’ families sent letters blaming McVay for their loss. McVay worked in insurance and committed suicide in 1968.
-1999 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing featured survivors, 8th grader who did school research project, and Admiral Donald Pilling (whitewashed testimony under pressure, so a subordinate leaked series of guided questions to Senator Bob Smith). USN finally updated McVay’s naval record in 2001. In 2017, a search team financed by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen located the wreckage.
40% of our actions happen without thought. Habits free up mental bandwidth and operate separately from memory (man with amnesia still created new habits).
Basic Framework: (1) CUE → (2) ROUTINE → (3) REWARD. CRAVINGS—continuous desire for reward—help sustain habits.
The best way to change a habit is to keep the same Cue and Reward but insert a new Routine. Routine is usually obvious, may need to experiment/reflect over time to identify cue and reward of bad habits. Febreze thought Reward was absence of pungent smell when it was really a redolent smell.
Organizations: Start by changing one critical (“keystone”) habit which impacts others. Alcoa CEO picked safety (rote repetition makes tests routine). Starbucks CEO prioritized willpower (kids who play sports or instruments are more successful because they get experience forcing themselves to practice). Crises present opportunities to change bad habits…don’t let them go to waste (Target understands buying habits are most likely to change following a major life event). To sell a new habit, wrap it in the familiar (radio stations play hopeful songs sandwiched in between established hits).
Society: Movements require the habit of peer pressure (most committed Freedom Riders were part of social groups). Addictions (and sleep terrors) are extreme versions of habits, but still changeable with concerted effort.
Q Anon is bigger than a conspiracy theory; it is a leaderless cult. It is a religion whose scripture is 5,000 “drops.” It holds ~1,000 core adherents (similar to Scientology). Its appeal lies in the game/puzzle, community, and an outlet for blaming grievances on enemies (i.e. Democrats/Hillary Clinton, Jewish Financiers/George Soros, Health Officials/Fauci).
In Oct 2017, President Trump made cryptic comment to press corps: “maybe this is the calm before the storm.” 4chan /pol/ had previously featured “FBI Anon,” but a new user claiming to be a Q-cleared senior military intelligence official posted Hillary would be arrested. Moderators convinced Pizzagate commentators to take to Reddit /p/anon (attracted millennials). InfoWars reached baby boomers and more “mainstream” right wing. Q went exclusive with 8chan (and eventually 8kun). “Pastel QAnon” reached lifestyle influencers and liberal moms. Trump retweeted 317 posts from Q boosters. Russia doesn’t generate conspiracies but amplifies them.
Core tenants: (1) Evil cult of lizard people rule world; (2) JFK Jr still alive; (3) Liberal elites are harvesting children’s bloods for drug andrechrome; (4) Wayfair kidnaps children ; (5) Bill Gates and Joe Biden created COVID to win election.
Pattern: bold claim, thing doesn’t happen, explanation for why didn’t happen (e.g. “disinformation is necessary”).
Slogans: Where We Go One We Go All (WWG1WGA); #savethechildren; the storm is coming.
Q almost certainly included Paul Furber (original moderator), Coleman Rogers (accidentally live-streamed himself logging in), Tracy “Beanz” Diaz (first viral videos), and Ron Watkins (long-time moderator/almost admitted).
During two years of troublesome behavior at Vassar College, NY, worked summers at seaside restaurant in Provincetown, MA. Exploited friendship with donor to skip waitlist into Culinary Institute of America (CIA) in Hyde Park, NY. Took classes on everything from butchering to baking, eating everything made. Bounced between dozens of NYC (and one Baltimore) restaurants including French, Italian, American, Mexican, and Chinese. Chasing money to feed drug habits, became chef at 22, though most early restaurants folded. Eventually moved past drugs and became respectable chef. A week visiting a sister restaurant in Tokyo triggered the travel bug. Roles:
Line Cook: Professional cooking is less about the best recipe, presentation, or flavoring—it’s about consistency. Must be calm, team player, and keep setup (“meez,” miss-en-place) clean and dry. Types: artists, exiles, mercenaries.
Chef: Juggles menu, personnel, behavioral issues, deliveries, communication with wait staff. Staff of 14 generated ~280 dinners/evening. Run “agents” to stay informed on kitchen gossip. Must be multilingual (at a minimum Spanish). Chefs poach favorite cooks as they switch restaurants.
Runners: Dress like waiters but loyal to chef, job is shuttle food quickly.
Night Porter: single person cleans all night and kills rats.
Owners: Only ~1 in 5 restaurants are profitable; if you need consultants it’s too late. Must be fully invested, fluent in everything from health/building codes to trash removal/liquor licenses. Favorite owner “Bigfoot” demanded perfection but looked out for staff and managed efficiently/professionally.
Anecdotes: brutish/homophobic language, pranks, grab-assing and retaliation, gun sales in bathroom, sex with coworkers/customers, and shocking amounts of drugs (pot, quaaludes, cocaine, LSD , mushrooms, speed, heroine). Many of best cooks were troubled people—one committed suicide after being fired.
Advice: Check bathroom cleanliness. Bread is usually recycled—get used to it. Avoid “discount sushi” and seafood on Mondays (4-5 days old). Best cooks work Friday/Saturday night, not Sunday brunch. Most sophisticated customers come weeknights; dumb down menu on weekends.
Drama at Dartmouth, moved to NYC with two best friends. Babysat rich family in Brooklyn while tried to write/act/page for sitcoms/late night. Original play “Ben & Matt” (fictional comedy about Damon/Affleck) won attention in NYC, but pilot “Mindy & Brenda” never picked up. Still, had a “general” (showbiz version of informational interview) with Greg Daniels and hired as writer for six episodes of The Office. Moved to LA, wrote “The Injury” and filmed in isolated, urban, San Fernando industrial park. Through Mike Schur, landed temporary SNL writing after season 2 (contributed little but built comedy network).
FBI Special Agent Bob Lamphere worked in Birmingham FO and NYFO before landing at HQ’s Soviet Counterintelligence Desk. Initially demoralized to be trapped at HQ, but re-energized by discovery of KGB officer Vassily Zubilin, defection of code clerk Igor Gouzenko, and “Red Queen” spy Elizabeth Bentley turning herself in.
Cryptologist Meredith Gardner spoke a dozen languages by age 23 and taught university before recruitment to Army Signal Intelligence Corps at Arlington Hall. Soviets employed unbreakable code involving unique syntax, highly encrypted cypher, fibonacci counting, and single-use sheets. Soviet reuse of sheets, Gardner’s brilliance, and possibly a cypher recovered from Soviet consulate in Finland, helped them break it (“Blue problem” → “Venona Project”).
Identified a NYC ring run by KGB Agent Alexander Feklisov (“Sasha”) which included Operation ENORMOZ looking into the US atomic bomb. Intercepted signals led them to LIBERAL, Joel Barr (METER), and Alfred Sarant (HUGHES). Hampered by the extreme secrecy of Venona, both escaped. However, it also led Lamphere to a list of scientists, and–after initially blaming Rudolf Peierls–Klaus Fuchs (REST), who who was now living in Britain. Defector Donald Maclean informed KGB the ring was blown, but interrogation of Fuchs extracted a confession and 14-year prison sentence. His debrief identified courier Harry Gold (RAYMOND). His suspicious stop in Albuquerque uncovered David Greenglass (CALIBER) and wife Ruth. CALIBER named Ruth’s brother Julius Rosenberg (identified as LIBERAL) and wife Ethel. Lamphere and Gardner both lobbied unsuccessfully to save Ethel’s life.
Losses: Man tried to lift wife’s head and put on as hat (visual agnosia), man insisted it was still 1945 (total amnesia); woman couldn’t control hands without watching them (proprioception loss); man saw his own leg as foreign; memory of lost limb (phantom); man understood tone but no words or vice versa (tonal agnosia)
Excesses: Man tics and nervous energy (Tourette’s); woman feels frisky (neurosyphilis); man short memory and continually improvised scenes around him (deprived of continuity, driven to proliferation of pseudo-narratives); woman with rapid personality change (cerebral tumor)
Transports: Woman constantly heard Irish songs (stroke/temporal lobe seizures/musical epilepsy); man had visions of India (brain tumor/seizures); man had enhancement of smell and color vision for three weeks (cocaine/PCP); man had no memory of killing girlfriend (temporal lobe seizures) until replayed in nightmares (head injury)
World of Simple (“Idiot-Savants”): Woman had IQ of 60 but gift for deep metaphors/poetry; man clumsy but eidetic memory contained 2,000+ operas; twins couldn’t understand multiplication but could remember/factor any number; man autistic but brilliant artist.
Society lacks vocabulary and empathy for unique mental illnesses—often misinterpreting symptoms as rudeness.
Doctors pay far too much attention to the defects and too little to what is intact or preserved.
Dopamine can be increased (L-Dopa for Parkinson’s) or reduced (Haldol for Tourettic patients).
Victor Conte, one-time bassist for Tower of Power, was a persuasive mountebank who found his way into emerging community of powerlifting magazines and experimental pharmacology. Created Bay Area Laboratory Cooperative (BALCO) to market mineral supplement ZMA (few adults lack minerals). NFL linebacker Bill Romonowski and 2000 Sydney Olympics gold medal sprinter Marion Jones were first major clients.
Barry Bonds blamed father (Bobby) for frequent moves and defining childhood. Barry so talented he failed to learn basic skills (hustle, weightlifting, making friends). Constant flare-ups with fans/teammates, and often finished season in worse shape than started. Childhood teammate Greg Anderson became lifting coach and steroid evangelist (got HGH from AIDS patients).
Bonds was jealous of attention given to 1998 McGuire-Sosa race, and started using that offseason (gained 100 lbs of muscle). Steroids were illegal without prescription but not banned in baseball and nobody asked questions. Anderson connected with Conte and began sharing “The Clear,” “The Cream,” EPO, and HGH. Bonds also looped in Yankees Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield.
IRS Agent Jeff Novitski began investigating BALCO with help from UCLA lab. Undercover agent befriended Anderson but had stroke after intense workout. Investigators raided BALCO and Conte named 27 clients (later denied). Search of Anderson’s apartment yielded troves of evidence.
Most athletes continued to deny steroid use in public while admitting use in Grand Jury testimony (Bonds insisted he didn’t realize the drugs were steroids). AG John Ashcroft pursued prosecution eagerly and Congress called early 2005 hearing after a teenager’s steroid use resulted in suicide. Continued public denials alongside a steady trickle of leaks to the San Francisco Chronicle drew out the finale. Conte accepted mild plea for 4 months prison; Anderson 3 months. Commissioner Selig refused to address steroids head on and even celebrated Bonds’ record breaking through 2007 (continued to entice fans, helping recover from 1994 strike).
Surround yourself with people better than you (e.g. improvisers) and you’ll improve.
Guidelines on boundaries for humor: Pick fair targets, don’t depend purely on shock value.
Has anxiety (had several panic attacks), but also a natural instinct to bring levity to stressful situations.
Care about the quality of the work without fixating on the results.
From Newton, went to Boston College, then Chicago (UCB), New York (SNL), LA (Parks). UCB→Andy Richter→Conan→Deuce Bigalow. UCB→SNL→Parks and Recreation.
One of four original Upright Citizens Brigade (UCB) in Chicago; moved to New York and grew to steadily larger theaters. Used long-form improv (the Harold) and named their own format “assscat” after an improvised song.
Parents from India; grew up in NJ; went to UCLA to pursue acting. Couldn’t find agent until changed name from Kalpen Modi to Kal Penn. Tried to avoid stereotyped roles, but Van Wilder led to Harold & Kumar. Olivia Wilde convinced to attend Obama fundraiser, extended volunteer work in Iowa due to writers’ strike. Applied to WH online, no calls, but when mentioned to Michelle landed Associate Director of Office of Public Engagement for art, youth, and APAC. Sketchy Bollywood producer only paid cash. Co-created NBC sitcom Sunnyside but blames lack of network support/advertising for relegation to Peacock.
Eleanor: FDR surprised friends/family with decision to marry fifth cousin Eleanor (her father was Teddy’s brother). In 1918, Eleanor discovered FDR was in love with her social secretary Lucy Mercer; stayed together in separate bedrooms. While devastating, opened path to operate independently as First Lady (FDR’s personal needs handled by loving assistant Missy LeHand and flirt Martha Princess of Norway). Eleanor’s loves were journalist Lorena Hickok and young reformer Joe Lash. Four Roosevelt boys all joined the military and had 18 (!) marriages. Eleanor dedicated to abolition of child labor, establishment of minimum wage, protection of women workers, being FDR’s eyes and ears. Red Cross volunteering in Europe deemed too risky, but focused on Office Civilian Defense, refugee children, racial equity, and labor. FDR balanced her many progressive proposals with political realities (e.g. draft rather than broader national service requirement).
FDR: Frequently returned to his childhood bedroom in Hyde Park to relax. Prior to being stricken with polio in 1921, FDR flourished on activity. Used leg braces and assistants helped dress. Had nightly cocktail. Thrived on gossip and stories, but too cowardly to fire subordinates. Greatest strength was confidence in himself and the American people (“dominant instinct was to unite”). Remained exceptionally calm throughout Pearl Harbor. On radio, used simple words, concrete examples, and everyday analogies to make his points. Each speech went through 12+ drafts. Arsenal of Democracy (fireside chat); Four freedoms (SOTU). Kept press corps close, calling them by the first name, teasing them, and once wrote one’s copy when he missed his train (though 80% of newspapers opposed his policies, his coverage was full and fair). Framed seeking unprecedented third term around responsibility to serve, though also enjoyed being at the center of history. Left fourth-term VP (Truman) up to delegates. Health began deteriorating mid-1944 and showed more vulnerability (allowed pictures outside of standing/open car). Cabinet: Cordell Hull (State), Henry Morgenthau (Treasury), Harry Hopkins (Commerce-constantly on the brink of death).
Churchill: Got on famously with Churchill, despite disagreements over India policy and D-Day. Churchill drank from morning until early morning and entire White House slept three days after departure. FDR copied Churchill’s “map room” and encouraged Americans to create their own. Conferences (first President to fly overseas, first since Lincoln to visit active theater of war):
Atlantic/Newfoundland Conference (Aug 1941)
Arcadia/Washington (Dec 1941-Jan 1942, Jun 1942, May 1943)
Moscow (Aug 1942, Oct 1944) [+Stalin]
Casablanca (Jan 1943) [Germans decoded message, but translated to “White House”]
Quebec (Aug 1943, Sep 1944)
Cairo/Tehran (Nov-Dec 1943) [+Chiang Kai-Shek]
Malta (Jan 1945)
Yalta (Feb 1945)
Potsdam (July 1945)
Homefront: After Pearl Harbor, heavy pressure against Japanese-Americans; never admitted mistake but slowly rolled back detentions. Slow rescue European Jews due to lack of political urgency. In 1940, the US had only six months of rubber and tin. Follow-on effects: Fuel rationed (due only to rubber shortage), coffee rationed to one cup per day (due to need for ships in Atlantic). Cloth rations led to creation of short skirts and two-piece bathing suits.
Industrial Base: FDR devised a 7-person National Defense Advisory Commission (NDAC) of both businessmen and New Dealers. Gov’t assumed financial risk. After Dunkirk, only the US could resupply the British. Against the advice of his military advisors, congressional leaders, and own secretary of war, FDR exploited legal loopholes (commercial surplus, executive orders, lend-lease) to provide equipment. Struggled to convert car into airplane manufacturing until Pearl Harbor; Truman Commission (1941) spurred competition. Balance: pressured labor but vetoed bill outlawing strikes. Continuous racial unrest.
Military: In 1940, the US Army was 18th largest in the world and Congress was still isolationist (e.g. Lindbergh). The Louisiana Maneuvers comprised a series of discrete exercises in which umpires would determine which side had achieved an advantage. Help dissipate US arrogance. Pearl Harbor generated patriotism but also confusion over the real enemy (luckily Hitler declared war). Concerned with morale, FDR requested North Africa landings ahead of election day. Signed GI Bill (of Rights)—an unmitigated success.
Questioning ourselves makes the world more unpredictable, requires us to admit we were wrong, or even threatens our identities. But we must constantly question our assumptions.
Common Roles: We often become…
Preacher: deliver sermon to protect and promote ideals.
Prosecutor: attack flaws in others and marshal arguments to win argument.
Politician: campaign and lobby for others’ approval.
Instead, we should be a scientist: constantly aware of limits of understanding and curious. Lead with questions and puzzles rather than answers and solutions.
Confident Humility: People with the most extreme beliefs or least knowledge often have the greatest conviction. We should have faith in our capability while appreciating we may not have the right solution. [During a break at an astronomy conference, a presenter realized he made a critical mistake undermining his paper and admitted it in front of hundreds of colleagues, who gave him standing ovation for integrity.]
Debate: To win a debate, you must convince the other side to think again. Use questions like “what evidence would you need to see to change your mind?” or “so you don’t see any merit in the proposal?” Limit yourself to a few arguments and rather picking at other side’s strawmen, acknowledge their steelman.
Motivational Interviewing: An alternative to persuasion is motivational interviewing (help them find their own motivation to change). Start with open ended questions and show genuine interest rather than judgment/hidden agendas. [Ask sources, acknowledge lots of confusing facts, eventually offer information.]
Binary bias: people/media frame issues as black or white, but almost all issues are more complex. Include caveats (in science these are exciting areas for future study).
In organizations, continually reassess “best practices.” [Amazon replaced PowerPoint slides with a six-page memo laying out a problem followed by discussion.] In your career, be flexible and pursue opportunities to learn.
Confused people’s behaviors are beyond their control. The person you are caring for is also often miserable and doing the best they can. But they and their families do still experience joy and happiness.
If you can find ways to make a person who has dementia feel more secure and comfortable, behavioral symptoms may decline. Affection, reassurance, and calm are best, even when things make no sense. Use short words and simple sentences. Keep a tidy, uncluttered house.
Difficult symptoms: Ask yourself if the behavior could result in harm to someone. If not, let them do things their own way (e.g. if they want to eat with their fingers, let them). Maintain a sense of humor (but avoid talking about the person when they are nearby).
Activity: Staying active helps. Some skills will be lost permanently but teaching within their capabilities is good. Make sure they are getting a complete diet and stay hydrated.
Skills: Let them do activities themselves until first frustration, then help. Don’t argue/explain, and de-escalate “catastrophic reactions.” If they repeat themselves try distracting them, or giving them tasks to keep them busy. Don’t make assumptions about what a person understands (they may understand but be unable to communicate).
Driving: If you wouldn’t let the person drive your grandchild, they shouldn’t be driving. Never leave a person with dementia alone in a car.
Wandering: Wandering can often be reduced by creating a calming environment. Be alert to neighborhood hazards. Distract the person who has wandered rather than confront them. Have an ID bracelet made and consider a wearable tracking device (can order online).
Never overlook the importance of hand-holding, touching, hugging, and loving. Most people retain music. Plan their day so less is expected of them at times they’re not their best.
Delusions and hallucinations can happen. Avoid denying the person’s experience, just listen and give a noncommittal answer.
Try to have a single physician who can prescribe medications, answer questions, and work with specialists if need be. Types of care:
Respite care: sitter comes to your home
Day care: temporary supervision (can tell person they are “volunteering”
Nursing care: full-time
Begin by contacting the local chapter of a dementia support agency or the Alzheimer’s Association. Make a will and execute a DURABLE power of attorney (should help avoid a guardianship/conservatorship). Keep records of your expenses for tax deductions (e.g. home modifications, adaptive gadgets, medications, insurance fees). Plan for long-term care ($100K+/year).
Take care of yourself. If tension in family, have a meeting, but recognize the primary care-giver must make the final decision. Caregiving is exhausting and others should help. Usually best that others (e.g. neighbors) are aware of the illness.
Preventative: lower blood pressure, stimulating environment, Mediterranean diet, few concussions, good genetics, men.
Diagnosis/progression: Dementia can be caused by Alzheimers (60%) or vascular disease (e.g. stroke). Before age 66, PET scan. Symptoms usually recognizable after about three years. Person usually lives 10-11 years.
Treatment: Current treatments address symptoms but do not slow progression of disease. Significant side effects. Leads: increase neurotransmitters, reduce neuritic plaques/tangles, electrical stimulation, reduce abnormal proteins (e.g. tau), transplanting new cells, interrupting immune response.
American independence was inevitable, but occurred suddenly. The same arguments used to justify independence from Britain also undermined the legitimacy of any national government. Despite its faults (white men, secrecy, preserved slavery), the Constitutional Convention solved a seemingly intractable political problem and institutionalized explosive disagreements in political parties. Results of diversity of personalities, collegial bonds, and ability to take slavery off the table.
Founding fathers disagree on the “founding moment”:
Jefferson: 1776 Independence.
Hamilton/Adams: 1787-88 Nationhood.
Analyzes several key episodes:
Duel: Hamilton fired first, aiming to miss Burr. Burr, ignorant of Hamilton’s pledge to waste his shot, fired to kill and reacted immediately with regret.
Assumption/Residency Compromise of 1790: Jefferson was so uncomfortable with argument, he left it to others. Madison was so gentle and eager to give credit to others it was impossible to unleash fury without seeming a belligerent fool. Madison agreed to permit federal assumption of state debts and Hamilton agreed to use his influence to assure that the national capital would be on the Potomac River. Washington chose DC (and perhaps placed Pennsylvania Avenue as consolation for Philadelphia).
Slavery: As part of compromise over regulation of commerce, Constitution stipulated government would not tamper with slavery for 20 years. No biracial society had existed in recorded history at that time and relocating blacks would be expensive. Most FFs uncomfortable, but had competing priorities. Franklin enlivened abolition, but Madison ultimately scuttled.
Washington Farewell: Preached unity at home and independence abroad. Some of the words were Madison’s, most of the words were Hamilton, all of the ideas were Washington’s. Never delivered as speech, but published widely.
Adams-Jefferson Relationship: Adams (short, stocky, loud, confrontational, anxious). Jefferson (tall, skinny, shy, evasive, aloof). Hoped for fresh start as P-VP, but politics undermined. Adams was so verbose as VP, Senate decided the VP was not permitted to speak. Adams was only FF with male heir, thus the largest threat for monarchy. Adams ultimately reached out, triggering a 14-year exchange of 158 letters. Adams last words: “Jefferson still lives.”
Framework: What do you want? What is true? What are you going to do about it?
Take responsibility and learn from your mistakes. It’s impossible to view yourself objectively. Takes 18 months to change most habits. Difficulties are essential to growth. Everything looks bigger up close. Meditate. 80% of the value comes from 20% of the information or effort. Don’t mistake fast talking for intelligence.
Radical open-mindedness: Hold and explore conflicting possibilities in your mind while moving fluidly toward whatever is likely to be true. In disagreements, let each side talk for two minutes and then each explain the others’ position. Teams need both task-oriented detailers and creatives (at Bridgewater, rank all colleagues on attributes published on baseball cards).
Radical transparency: Think only about what’s accurate and not how it’s perceived. Forces issues to the surface so they can be resolved (mining for conflict). Communicated possible divestitures to all employees; taped all meetings.
Lusitania (Cunard)—named after a Roman province on the Iberian Peninsula—was the fastest civilian vessel afloat and had the hull of a battleship. It completed 201 Atlantic crossings and had 1300 passengers (189 Americans). Following post-Titanic (White Star Line) regulations, it had sufficient lifeboats but some were collapsible and Royal Navy had absorbed most capable crewmembers. 1300 passengers and 189 Americans.
First successful submarine attack was kamikaze during US Civil War. Germany established Unterseebootkonstruktionsbüro in 1904. The 1914 Aboukir incident (3 ships sunk) spurred British policy forbidding large warships from aiding U-boat victims. In first days of WWI, Brits cut Germany’s undersea cables and Room 40 (~WWI-version of enigma) intercepted German traffic.
German leadership gave full discretion to U-boat commanders. U-boats could travel faster and further while surfaced so dived only in extreme weather, when attacking ships, or dodging destroyers. When deep, air turned humid and condensation soaked clothing and bred colonies of mold. 60% of torpedo launches failed. After launches, men had to shift positions to compensate for the loss of 3,000 lbs. Before depth charges emerged prior to WWII, defenses included nets and ramming.
Red flags: uptick in sub traffic and Germany issued public warning. But Royal Navy admirals were focused on superdreadnought HMS Orion. U-boat captain Schwieger had decided to abandon effort to reach Liverpool due to weather and only 3 torpedoes left, but Lusitania happened to pass right in front—only 20 miles from the coast.
Passengers observed 20ft-long torpedo’s approach (“dead wake”) with more awe than fear. Most passengers put lifejackets on incorrectly and listing made it difficult to launch lifeboats (6 of 22 launched correctly). Sunk in 18 minutes. In 55 degree water, most lost consciousness in 1-2 hours.
In the aftermath, Admiralty blamed Captain Turner to obscure their decision not to divert to the safer North Channel route or provide naval escort. Survivors received lifetime 25% discount with Cunard. US joined war two years later, although causation somewhat overstated (US ships being sunk on daily basis, Zimmerman Telegram).
Larson criteria for book: (1) Interesting subject; (2) Narrative arc; (3) Rich base of archival materials; (4) Not already been done.
The Doolittle Raid, five months after Pearl Harbor, was the first air strike on the Japanese archipelago. 16 aircraft and 80 men killed 50 Japanese, including civilians. In addition to reprisal killings of thousands of Chinese, Japan captured eight American pilots and sentenced them to death under ex post facto Enemy Airman Law. Japan watched US execute 6 of 8 Nazi submarine saboteurs, and didn’t want to set a precedent that invader bombers would be treated humanely. Three were actually executed (and another died of malnutrition). FDR assumed all had been executed and vowed revenge.
US JAGs were assigned to both prosecution and defense (lead defense attorney hadn’t actually finished law school but enlisted Japanese lawyers as well). Prosecution charged four members in the chain of command (precedent from earlier Philippines trial said commander was liable). Upon defense’s investigatory trip to Tokyo, became apparent some Raiders had strafed civilian targets, including an elementary school. Moreover, the Raiders’ execution had been directed from the Tojo’s Tokyo-based war cabinet and some had even pushed back. Trial began March 1946 in Shanghai before five judges (US military officers). After 17 days, all four defendants were found guilty of negligence but shockingly given only 5-9 years hard labor instead of capital punishment.
Data-driven approach to pregnancy:
Fertility declines with age, but 35 is not a cutoff. To reduce risks, make sure you are exercising before you get pregnant.
Ovulation is halfway between periods. Conception rates are near 30% the day before and after ovulation (use app to time). Pregnancy is counted from the first day of your last period (you’re ~4 weeks in when you find out).
10-15% of pregnancies will end in miscarriage, but declines the further you progress. Several options for prenatal screening/testing for down syndrome, consider cell-free fetal DNA testing (non-invasive). Nausea usually weeks 6-14, try small meals, vitamin B6+ginger ale. Weight gain is normal, though don’t go crazy.
No good evidence that light drinking impacts your baby, but only 1 drink and no shots. No more than 2 cups of coffee/day. No tobacco or cannabis. No raw/rare meat and poultry, unwashed fruits/vegetables, queso and other raw-milk cheeses, or deli meats. Medications: ask doctor.
Changing cat litter and some airplane travel is fine; avoid gardening and hot tubs. General exercise is fine (yoga encouraged); Kegels prevent incontinence and help pushing.
By 28 weeks, more than 90% of babies survive and by 34 weeks 99% do. There’s no evidence bed rest prevents preterm labor. Your first baby is on average 8 days late; cervical checks and dilation + effacement can help predict.
Labor includes dilation, pushing, and placenta. Nipple stimulation can help induce. 30% of births are by C-section (longer initial recovery). Most moms use epidural, thought is does increase the chance of some complications for the mother.
Think through birthing plan ahead of time (e.g. induce labor, eating/drinking, doula). Give vitamin K shot and eye antibiotics—cord-blood banking is probably unnecessary.
Rodchenkov’s mother provided him steroids at age 22 for running. Justifications: everyone was doing it, good for body to recover from intense training. Soviet labs existed to instruct athletes on how to avoid being caught. Types of steroids:
Anabolic Steroids (e.g. stanozolol): like testosterone, take on a program, help with strength, recovery. 5 month window for testing.
Peptides (e.g. HGH): build muscle mass, hard to test for
Stimulants: common right before competition
Struggled to make money during the end of the Cold War, peddled nutritional supplements. But adroitly managed relationships to win control of Moscow anti-doping lab in 2004. Created RUSADA to appease WADA, but still corrupt. Held powerful position, choosing which athletes to report (would choose a few to disqualify, since 100% clean looked suspicious).
In 2011, Got caught up in bureaucratic turf wars and was arrested/interrogated by FSKN (Russian drug control agency which hoped to corner the lucrative market of providing low quality steroids to amateurs). Tried suicide but wife saved.
Two key developments for Sochi operation:
Devised cocktail of 3 anabolic steroids with Chivas Regal which was difficult to trace (BALCO taught dissolve first instead of pills/shots)
KGB figured out how to open BEREG-kit bottles which held urine.
Deputy Minister of Sport wanted to erroneously disqualify best Ukrainian biathletes, but Rodchenkov refused (risk not worth reward). After 2013 Daily Mail story, WADA suspended Moscow lab accreditation for six months, but pulled off 2014 Sochi operation using mousehole to carefully planned FSB command post. Very few understood the scheme (although athletes likely suspicious why they requested so much clean urine ahead of the games).
German documentary interviewer ambushed Rodchenkov, drew renewed attention. 2015 Boris Nemtov assassination increased both disillusionment and feeling of solitude. First WADA (“Pound”) report identified problem, Rodchenkov fled to LA to stay with US journalist Bryan Fogel. Kremlin, looking for scapegoats likely assassinated RUSADA friend Nikita Kamaev as he worked on a manuscript.
FBI served Rodchenkov subpoena as cooperating witness couldn’t speak publicly on ongoing investigation before Rio 2016. Nonetheless, wrote a 100-page dossier for the NYTimes, confirmed by a second WADA (“McLauren”) report. With some talented lawyers, avoided charges, earned asylum in the US, and now lives under witness protection (likely remains on Kremlin’s top 5 hit list).
Other: Talk aside, no country likes anti doping, it’s expensive and generates scandals which eat away at profits. Sochi was a surprising choice for the winter games, as a large, warm, resort city.
Elizabeth arrived at Stanford in early Google years, spent a summer in Singapore testing for SARS, wrote patent for patch tests. Therapy + Diagnosis = Theranos. Replaced with miniaturized cartridge and reader system (“Edison”), but had to dilute blood, mix with reagents, and keep cool, making tests complex/impossible. Consistently fired ~15 people per year and others resigned on their own (all were escorted out and forced to sign an NDA). Elizabeth narrowly survived a 2008 coup and fired those responsible. Met “Sunny” Balwani on Stanford Mandarin program to Beijing, became lover and number two. Sunny brought software experience but was a neophyte with engineering (regurgitated jargon like “end effector,” except he thought it was “endofactor”).
Pfizer and AstraZeneca lost interest in early trials, but Walgreens Innovation team hyped, and Safeway completely redesigned store layouts for upscale wellness clinics. Elizabeth consistently lied to investors, claiming Edison could perform 192 tests instantaneously and cheated on tests. Sunny often blamed WiFi and had software engineer code program to drag out test rather than give error. Replaced Edison with “minilab” or “4S,” which in addition to photomultiplier tube, needed spectrophotometer, cytometer, and isothermal amplifier. Elizabeth fashioned outfits after Steve Jobs, and employees could pick out which chapter of Walter Isaacson’s biography she was reading based on which part of Jobs’ career she was imitating. Adopted deep voice to be taken seriously in male-dominant Silicon Valley and threw company parties where she claimed to be “building a religion.” Hired brother Christian and four fraternity brothers from Duke (the “frat pack”). The most loyal employees were Indians who depended on H-1B visa sponsorship. Theranos sought loopholes to avoid FDA approvals or lab certifications, but Army Lt. Colonel Shoemaker faced wrath of Mattis in claims Theranos didn’t meet regulatory muster. Theranos hired legendary litigator David Boies (Microsoft anti-trust, Al Gore 2000 election) to sue all threats, including former Holmes neighbor Richard Fuisz who filed opportunistic patent in 2006 (Theranos won). Demoted and subpoenaed in Fuisz case, employee Ian Gibbons committed suicide; Theranos responded only by requesting his laptop.
Powerful BoD which included George Schultz, James Mattis, Henry Kissinger, William Perry, Sam Nunn, Gary Roughead helped launch investments which led to $9B valuation in 2014 (Elizabeth owned over half). Other investors included Rupert Murdoch, Bob Kraft, and Betsy DeVos. Elizabeth leaned into fame, with 20-person security detail, Audi A8 sans license plates, and private Gulfstream. At least 40 Walgreens rolled out Edisons in Phoenix, and around 1 million wildly inaccurate results prompted unknown thousands of dollars of MRIs and other testing.
Friend of Fuisz contacted John Carreyrou, who found former employees Alan Beam and Tyler Schultz (George’s grandson). Boies and legal team ambushed Shultz, and Theranos put Carreyrou, Schultz, Beam, and source Erika Cheung under continuous surveillance for a year. Wall Street Journal published in 2015. As investors turned and federal investigations began (SEC suit, FBI fraud), Elizabeth fired Sunny and replaced Boies with Wilmer Hale. Elizabeth claimed Sunny deceived her, but she crafted her culture long before he joined in 2009.
Of 1,400 four-year colleges, the average accepts 60%; only 46 accept less than 20%. Competition for a specific seat is higher than ever, but getting into at least one selective college is still feasible (they admit more, knowing only 30% will accept their offer: 33% of students apply to 7 or more schools.)
The average in-state four-year tuition is $21K, private is $49K. Financial aid, designed to help low-income students, is now used by schools to lure accepted students. Private colleges must balance full-pay and low-income applicants, just as public colleges must balance in-state and out-of-state applicants.
Prestige in higher ed is measured by the quality of students admitted, not by quality of education they receive. Colleges want to maximize applicants to keep acceptance rate low. Since 1983, US News & World Report has published rankings, which Northeastern gamed with a national marketing campaign and lowering class size caps to 19. In 1971, College Board started selling names/addresses of test takers to colleges. The admissions, financial aid, and marketing offices are now regularly combined into an “enrollment management” department.
Early Decision (ED) gives an applicant more attention and demonstrates interest, but gives more leverage to schools, who use it to fill specific spots (e.g. athletes), knowing the applicant is bound to enroll. Often fill 60%+ of the class (In 2008 recession, schools leaned on ED to ensure they could fill their spots given many students rely on mortgage loans to pay for school). Waitlisted applicants are not ranked in order, but depend on the “shaping” of the final class.
In practice, “holistic admissions” usually involves rating applicants 1-5 in ~four areas: high school curriculum, extracurricular activities, recommendations, and “intellectual curiosity” (highly subjective, but colleges like for flexibility). Raters are heavily dependent on high school profiles, which vary in quality (half of applicants have an A average but only half of high schools offer calculus). Most readers are part-time and review 7 applications per hour.
Varsity Blues scandal not totally surprising (admissions counselors are not detectives). Rick Singer exploited colleges’ need to fill little known team rosters (e.g. the Amherst student body could fit in an Alabama lecture hall, but they have the same size squash team). Legacies make up a third of Harvard’s class (Kushner’s dad donated $2.5m).
College admission is less about the applicant and more about fitting a college’s agenda. Advice:
Admission depends on many factors out of your control (your high school, the college’s needs, subjective ratings). May behoove applicant to be big fish in little pond.
Simplify what you want (major, research options, location, size). Then, build out a broad list and parse over time. If you do ED, have contingency plans.
Grades and rigor always matter more than test scores or essays. Sustained interest in an area trumps membership in an array of random clubs. Essays are numbingly similar—try to stand out. Try to get recommendation in class you had to work hard in or outside of your intended major (female, humanities teachers write the nicest ones).
Success in college is not about where you go but how you go (picking courses/major/internships). UVA accepts 29% and Vtech 70%, but salaries are nearly identical after 10 years. Less than a third of college grads work in jobs related to their major, but adding a technical proficiency to a liberal arts diploma helps tremendously in the job market.
The US has no system of public health—only a patchwork of state and local health officers (usually late-career doctors who write memos and attend meetings). Corporations are only interested in profit, academics only until they were published; government was supposed to fill the gap.
Selected members of the “Wolverines” (Red Dawn reference) which shared e-mails/calls trying to share ideas/sound the alarm on COVID-19:
Charity Dean was an accomplished public health officer in Santa Barbara, CA with experience battling tuberculosis.
Two Bush administration officials, Richard Hatchett and Carter Mecher, developed pandemic strategy known as Targeted Layered Containment after reading about Philadelphia’s success in slowing the Spanish flu by closing schools and churches. Used a peculiar combination of numerical estimates (“redneck epidemiology”) and analogies to communicate risks (e.g. wildfire exponential growth).
At UCSF, Joe DeRisi developed a tool to identify the SARS virus, then joined Chan Zuckerberg Biohub. In the pandemic’s first year, did over 5% of the US’ COVID sequencing and developed an early testing capability.
John Bolton demoted or fired everyone on the biological threat team at the White House. When one CDC official expressed concern, stock market fell 1,100 points and WH forbade comments. The CDC declared Americans low-risk but refused to authorize testing (and botched development of mass testing). National stockpile had only Q-tips, and fraudsters sold eyelash brushes at huge profits. Dean was able to help convince Gavin Newsome to implement first state-wide stay-at-home order, but unsuccessful at selling approach of accountability through data transparency.
Sculptor John Gutzon de la Mothe Borglum was initially hired to carve Stone Mountain, but fired. Completed Mt. Rushmore in 1927.
Washington: Rules of Civility, Letter of Farewell to the Army, Inaugural Addresses, Farewell Address
Jefferson: Declaration of Independence, Inaugural Addresses, Secret Letter to Congress regarding Lewis & Clark
Lincoln: Eulogy on Henry Clay, Autobiographies (“education defective”), House Divided Speech, Lincoln-Douglas Debates (“no reason negro not entitled to all the natural rights enumerated in the Declaration of Independence”), Inaugural Addresses (“with malice toward none and charity for all”), Emancipation Proclamation (“shall be then, thenceforward, and forever free”), Gettysburg Address (“government of the people, by the people, for the people”)
Roosevelt: Autobiographies, Inaugural Address, Citizenship in a Republic (Man in the Arena), Takes More Than That to Kill a Bull Moose Speech
Fancy/Voodoo Bear (GRU Unit 26165/74455) developed Sandworm to prove relevance of both GRU and Russian foreign policy. Often worked with partners/through proxies: Cozy Bear (SVR), CyberBerkut, Guccifer 2.0, DCLeaks.
Estonia and Georgia: In 2007, Russian hackers harnessed malware-infected PCs around the world to DDOS Estonian websites each night, Estonia restored access each day. Did the same to Georgia in 2008.
Stuxnet: Centrifuges spin tens of thousands of rotations per minute to separate Uranium-238 from Uranium-235. STRATCOM worked with NSA TAO and an elite Israeli Unit 8200 to exploit FOUR zero days simultaneously. Run in secret for some time before being exposed, and leaked to more than a hundred countries.
Sony Pictures: In 2014, DPRK group Guardians of Peace hacked Sony, US likely responded with sanctions and nationwide internet blackout.
Black Energy: Could take screenshots, extract files and encryption keys, and record keystrokes.
Sandworm: In 2017, in conjunction with disinformation, targeted nearly every strata of Ukrainian society (media, energy, transportation, finance, government, and military). Named based on references to Arrakis (planet in Dune novel). Goal was to show the U.S. they could to deter Stuxnet-style attack.
Shadowbrokers: Former TAO employee took code home; Russians used Kaspersky anti-virus to access. Under rouse of seeking profit, embarrassed NSA.
WannaCry: Once NSA realized EternalBlue was compromised, they informed Microsoft to patch the vulnerability, but updates were slow; DPRK group Lazarus exploited in Wannacry.
NotPetya: Month after WannaCry, EternalBlue and Mimikatz used in tandem to wipe 10% of the computers in Ukraine. Also impacted multinational corporations like Maersk shipping (fortunately one of their backups in Ghana was offline, but still cost $300m).
Olympic Destroyer: 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics command center went dark during opening ceremony, finally restored at 5am. Malware designed to appear DPRK, but carrier Word docs similar to Ukrainian attacks.
Takeaways: US responded to DPRK Sony hack (2014) with internet blackout and Chinese economic espionage (2015) with sanctions, but silent on Russia until after 2016 election. World needs a new digital Geneva Convention to ban “first-use” cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. US actually more vulnerable than Ukraine because more dependent on software and less accustomed to outages. We can’t eliminate attacks, only prepare to minimize damage.
Companies: iSight>FireEye>Mandiant. CrowdStrike. Recorded Future. Telos. Run millions of “honeypots” (virtual computers designed to be hacked and harvest malware samples and monitor instructions from command-and-controls servers). The malware is stored in databases like Alphabet’s VirusTotal and run in virtual machines over and over again to be reverse engineered in IDA Pro. Software vulnerability research requires such focus that offices mirror a sensory deprivation chamber.
Originally farmland, Riggs built the cottage in 1842 and sold to the government in the 1850s. Buchanan stayed in a nearby Quarters 1 and recommended to Lincoln, who spent three summers (over a quarter of his presidency) in Riggs’ cottage. Lincoln would wake around 630am and ride Rock Creek Church Rd to “Seventh Street Turnpike” and past Logan Circle to the White House. It served as both refuge and a form of outreach to soldiers and blacks.
1861: July defeat at the first Battle of Bull Run derailed the family’s summer plans.
1862: Mourning February death of 12yo Willie, sought refuge.
Emancipation: President believed emancipation must be gradual, compensated, and voluntary. But aggressive Republican Congress pushed (response to Second Confiscation Act). Distributed Sept 23 (after Antietam) to take effect Jan 1. Only applied to slaves in Rebel territories but also authorized enlistment into Union Army.
McClellan formidable task with inexperienced army, but large ego, reluctant to strike, and misled in reports. Lincoln stood by until he no longer could.
1863: Republicans were battered in midterm elections. Already suffering from headaches, Mary Lincoln fell out of carriage and nearly died from infection. Took Tad north leaving Lincoln alone for 10 weeks.
Lee lost a third of Army at Gettysburg (July). Lincoln suspended Habeas Corpus (Sept).
Lincoln did not know cabinet secretaries well but built strong partnership Stanton, who stayed in nearby cottage. Lincoln is the only president to receive a patent (for a method for improving the navigation of boats through shallow water).
1864:
Confederate force swung through Maryland to Fort Stevens, the weakest link. Stanton asked Lincoln to WH, but Lincoln traveled to the skirmish—the only time a sitting president has seen enemy fire during combat.
Election: Refused to cancel; did not campaign himself but politically savvy. Cottage perfect setting to host Frederick Douglass/Carl Shultz to shape their attitudes and clarify own thinking. Passed Walt Whitman in his commute. Union advances and absentee voting secured big win.
1865: Lincoln last returned April 13, the day before he was assassinated.
Security: Convinced to initially enter DC under disguise, Lincoln was labeled a coward and thus initially resisted any protection. The Soldiers’ Home was not officially part of the 68 forts which encircled DC, though its tower served as a communications outpost, and in 1862 was used by a confederate spy to survey defenses. Protected by Company K, who named Tad a “Third Lieutenant.” One night Lincoln rode quickly back without his hat and private later discovered it with a bullet hole; Lincoln asked only not to tell his wife.
Soldiers’ Home: Renamed in late 1950s from Military Asylum, home to ~150 veterans, mostly aging/crippled immigrants who fought in the War of 1812 and struggled with alcoholism (Congress considered shutting down). Across the street, the national cemetery was created after Bull Run and grew rapidly (the precursor to Arlington).
Aftermath: Rutherford B. Hayes and Chester A. Arthur each lived the cottage, also served as hospital and dormitory. Not until 2000, with leadership from Hillary Clinton was it declared a national monument. Currently owned by the Armed Forces Retirement Home.
Western Michigan, Yankees, Seattle Pilots, Astros. Written 1969.
Without an agent, managed contentious salary negotiations directly with general manager. Many decisions are based on cost rather than ability (easier to judge). Coaching jobs are political patronage dispensed for former favors.
Baseball is instinctive, so stay in shape, practice, and when you play you let your instincts take over. Hitting is the single most difficult feat in sports. Joe Schultz: “Well, boys, it’s a round ball and a round bat and you got to hit it square.”
There isn’t a lot to do at Spring Training, but managers like you to look busy. Whitey Ford said the best way to look in shape is to get a tan.
Knuckleball easier on Bouton’s arm but broke several catchers’ fingers. Starters regularly threw 120+ pitches because they wanted to. One of the reasons injuries take so long to heal is we constantly test the aggravated muscles making it worse.
Talking to newspapers had stiffer penalties than showing up drunk, though Astros had curefews/bed checks. Regular sleeping with “Baseball Annie’s”, “shooting beaver” (looking up skirts), and eating “greenies” (amphetamines). Didn’t see gambling inside baseball, although one batter paid $150 to a catcher to tip pitches.
Bouton only directed to throw at a batter once and refused. Nobody took brawls seriously except those who start them; often jokes and small talk on the outskirts.
Began by hacking into fast food drive-through speakers, collecting nonpublic information about neighbors, phone phreaking and hacking. Occasionally broke into telecom facilities but mostly mastered social engineering—manipulating people. Pretended to be a colleague or that he already had the information it was just wrong—people felt obligated to correct. Befriended hacker who turned out to be FBI source, invented major scheme to buy time. Law enforcement chatter was encrypted, but he set up frequencies so he at least knew when they were nearby. As fugitive, cycled through several identities and narrowly escaped arrest in LA and Seattle before Raleigh. Claims he never hacked for money—only for the thrill. Pled guilty to seven counts (wire fraud, computer fraud, possession of access devices, and interception of data communications). Gained notoriety, including “Free Kevin” movement and cameo on Alias, before launching “ethical hacking” business Mitnick Security Consulting LLC.
Malcolm Gladwell’s 10,000 hour rule takes almost five years of full-time work. For those who don’t need to become a professional, consider rapid skill acquisition. Steps:
Choose a lovable project.
Focus your energy on one skill at a time (one at a time).
Define your target performance level (1-2 sentences)
Deconstruct the skill into subskills.
Obtain critical tools (maximizes practice time)
Eliminate barriers to practice (both environmental and emotional)
Make dedicated time for practice.
Create fast feedback loops (coaches or cameras)
Practice by the clock in short bursts.
Emphasize quantity and speed.
Flashcard apps: Anki, SuperMemo, Smartr3
Learning music: Memorize the song by just singing first. Once you have the song memorized, sing the note-names instead of the lyrics. Memorize the song like this, eyes closed. Finally, add the instrument, singing the note-names as you play them
on the strings.
Applies to: Yoga, Website Design, Touch Typing, Ukelele, and Windsurfing
Humans today have to process more information than ever before. Introduces an assortment of (mostly psychological) concepts/tips for living a more organized life. BLUF: categorize and externalize. Categorize for efficiency (e.g. memory encoding) and externalize to unclutter the mind (e.g. allowing for creativity).
The decision-making network in our brain doesn’t prioritize and fatigues throughout the day. Satisficing is critical to avoid wasting effort on decisions that don’t matter.
The mind is either focused or wandering. Focused is good for demanding tasks; wandering for creativity. Switching is difficult to control and costly. An attention filter runs constantly, judging change and importance. Learning while multitasking can cause information to go to the wrong part of the brain.
Procrastination: Eat the frog. If you can do something in under 5 minutes, do it now.
Have designated places for everything; keep things you use together together. Have a miscellaneous folder but don’t keep what you can’t use. Digitize files with OCR for searchability. A $20 nut-and-bolt “storehouse” can save you several trips to the hardware store.
Others’ actions are more often driven by situational factors than dispositional. People who read fiction are better able to detect others’ emotions. Stave off aging by staying mentally active and performing tasks you’ve never done before (keeps blood flowing to all parts of brain).
Our brains encode in chunks and organize them while we sleep (unitization, assimilation, abstraction). We retain better when we figure out ourselves rather than passively absorb. Think critically; we have a hard time ignoring information shown later to be false.
Those who lack self-confidence can built it by not giving up, reversing setbacks, and thus building confidence. The greatest satisfaction comes from completing projects requiring sustained focus and energy. Flow occurs when the brain is unconsciously managing the work, but requires practice and expertise.
Fun facts:
The brain makes up 2% of our bodyweight but consumes 20% of our energy. Neural communication reaches speeds over 300mph. Our brains can process at most about 120 bits/second (understanding speech takes about 60 bits/second).
There are numerous health benefits to being an agreeable person. Alternative medicine is simply medicine for which there is no evidence of effectiveness. Early birds tend to be happier, more conscientious and productive than night owls. A ten-minute nap can be equivalent to an extra hour and a half of sleep at night.
The average door in North America s about 6’8.” The average city block is 1/10th of a mile. More people have cell phones than toilets.
CAPTCHA: Completely Automated Public Turing test to tell Computers and Humans Apart.
The Vietnam War created the white power movement which declared war on the state in 1983, culminating in the OKC bombing.
1970s Aftermath of Vietnam: Many vets felt a corrupt US government sent them to fight and then limited their ability to win. After watching friend die, they were welcomed home as baby killers. They felt defeated, emasculated, and betrayed, at a time when social movements also threatened and victimized white men. A number of paramilitary Klan-affiliated camps operated from Texas to North Carolina, committing isolated acts of racism and violence against minorities.
1979 Greensboro Massacre: A caravan of neo-Nazis and Klansmen fired on a communist-organized “Death to the Klan” rally at a black housing project, killing five. Acquittals in three consecutive trials emboldened and unified disparate parts of the white power movement.
1980s Foreign Interventions: Complex interconnections formed between white power activism, US-sanctions covert intervention in Central America, and independent mercenaries fighting in Nicaragua, Dominica, Grenada, and El Salvador. Framed themselves as an anti-communist force.
1983 Declaration of War on the State: At the July Aryan Nations World Congress, the movement began calling for revolution against the Zionist Occupational Government (ZOG), assassination of federal agents, and a separatist state. They adapted a structure of leaderless resistance, stealing weapons from the military. Activities included assassinations, robbery/counterfeiting, and polygamy to encourage the birth of white children. Groups: Carolina Knights of KKK/White Patriot Party (NC), Covenant, Sword, Arm of Lord (CSA), White Aryan Resistance (CA), Elohim City (OK).
1985 Fort Smith trial: The only attempt to prosecute white power as a coherent social movement failed. The Arkansas judge influenced jury selection and excluded half the government’s 1200 pieces of evidence and 200 witnesses. Developed connections to emerging skinhead movement (despite urban, drug/alcohol use, tattoos).
1990s Peak: 1992 Ruby Ridge standoff and 1993 Waco disaster rallied sympathy, 1995 Oklahoma City bombing eroded. McVeigh’s idea came from FBIHQ bombing in The Turner Diaries; chose Murrah Federal building for architectural vulnerability. He made it 150 yards before the explosion lifted him off the ground, drove away slowly but forgot to put a license plate on his car. 1996 Atlanta Olympic bombing was anti-abortion crusader.
Backlash and clampdown dampened the white power movement in the 2000s as movement relocated online. Uptick in the mid-2010s with the emergence of the alt-right and lone actors.
Groups of interest:
KKK (e.g. Loyal White Knights)
Christian Identity/Neo-Paganism (e.g. Aryan Nations)
Neo-Nazis (e.g. National Alliance, White Aryan Resistance, National Socialist Movement)
Racist Skinheads (e.g. Hammerskin Nation, Volksfront)
Focuses on “Aryan free spaces”:
Home: Private place to indoctrinate youth with Hitler paintings, swastikas, Nordic imagery, talk peppered with epithets, and censorship of culturally diverse TV.
House Parties: ~50 guests build friendships sharing stories about becoming Aryan (e.g. schoolyard fight with minorities), injustices they face (e.g. blacks can have racial pride but they can’t), and how they persevere (e.g. defensive tactics to keep blacks out of neighborhoods).
Music Scene: Music spreads message broadly/inconspicuously. Bar shows build unity with chanting, boot-stomping, and “slam dancing.” Festivals draw larger groups.
Internet: Echo chambers for hate to share stories, ask for advice, and strengthen connections. Some even have “For Kids” sections.
Sites: Stormfront, NS88, Micetrap
Online games: Ghetto Blaster, ZOG Nightmare 2, Ethnic Cleansing
Private Communities: Isolated Aryan spaces. Covenant, Sword, Arm of Lord (Missouri-Arkansas Border, 1971-85), Elohim City (Oklahoma, 1973-Present), National Alliance (West Virginia, 1985-Present), Aryan Nations (Idaho, 1974-2001).
Other
Members craft unique ideologies and regularly shift between groups. “New racist” rhetoric describes whites as minority victims facing discrimination.
Recruitment is tailored to the individual (often play down extremism to start).
Among younger members, warrior fantasies often play out in bar fights. Tattoos are a way of demonstrating commitment.
Common Aryan names: Hunter, Forrest, Liberty, Ariana, Dieter.
Conclusion: Free spaces allow Aryans to release frustrations amongst themselves rather than through violence against enemies; socially isolated Aryans are more dangerous. But need vigilance, dialogue, and monitoring to counter extremism’s corrosive effects, and illegal activity must be met with arrests/prosecutions.
The story of the global Salafi-jihadi movement through its major players:
Usama Bin Laden (UBL)
Five wives (alternated nights, favorite Umm Hamza but imprisoned in Iran), 20+ kids (Saad killed so Hamza successor).
Despised US for revoked citizenship, expulsion from Sudan, perceived assassination attempts, and Gulf War involvement (offered AQ to protect KSA).
After 9/11, fled Tora Bora to Swat/Haripur (northern Pakistan) to Abbottabad (settled in 2005). Charismatic micromanager focused on striking the U.S. homeland again.
Practically blind in one eye; frequent pain/paralysis. Communicated exclusively through couriers like Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti. Only two security guards but stress took a toll. Killed May 2011; SEALs killed al-Kuwaiti before entering, lured Khalid around corner by whispering his name.
Saif al-Adel
Experienced, careful, and respected soldier with unfailing allegiance to UBL. Worked way up as seniors were killed. In 1995-96, traveled to Somalia and Yemen to set up affiliates.
After UBL assassination attempt, became bodyguard alongside Abu Jandal and Ibrahim Qosi (also accountant and personal cook). Used fake electrical scanner to “screen” reporters who interviewed UBL. Became AQ head of security and #3 behind military chief Abu Hafs al-Masri (aka Mohammed Atef).
Under international pressure, Sudan expelled AQ so returned to Afghanistan.
Following intercepted communications regarding Russian nuclear weapons, arrested by Iran along with Abu Khair and Abu Mohammed. Stormy relationship with “wide-eyed killer” Khalid Sheikh Mohammed.
Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (KSM)
Nephew Ramzi Yousef bombed World Trade Center. AQ previously mused of crashing airplane into Egyptian House of Representatives. UBL initially said “Planes Operation” wasn’t feasible but later supported, while others continued to fear backlash.
9/11 recruited 2,000 volunteers but put AQ on the run. Some fled to Iran, where they were arrested and held for bargaining. KSM was so eager to kill WSJ reporter Daniel Pearl he slit his throat before the recorder had a tape in it.
US used combination of precision strikes and Special Operations / Northern Alliance horseman to force AQ out of Kandahar and hammered Tora Bora mountain complex. Killed al-Masri, captured Millennium Plotter Abu Zubaydah and 9/11 facilitator Ramzi Bin al-Shibh and eventually KSM.
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi
Before conversion to Islam, served time for sexual assault and drug possession. Covered in tattoos and tried to shoot himself during a 1994 police raid but “missed.”
Radicalized by Abu Mohammed al-Maqdisi and built network in jail; released when Jordanian King Hussein died. Didn’t get along with UBL (only one meeting, didn’t pledge bayat until 2004), but AQ wanted a foothold in the Levant.
Fled Kandahar post-9/11 (ribs broken in airstrike) for northern Iraq; US invasion helped recruitment. Conducted near constant car bombings and beheadings. Hated Shias even more than Americans (75% of targets were Muslim). Governments complicit; Bashar al-Assad fed the Iraqi sectarian civil war (and released insurgents) and KSA didn’t want a Shia-led Iraq.
AQI set up stronghold in Fallujah, US/British forces painstakingly liberated in bloodiest battle of the war. Zarqawi arrested for several hours but inexplicably released. Narrowly escaped Delta Force roadblock.
AQI joined consortium under first emir of Islamic State of Iraq Omar al-Baghdadi. Public backlash (Sunni Awakening) resulted in arrest of 270 jihadists in Anbar province alone. Zarqawi narrowly escaped US Special Forces raid, but intelligence recovered led to death by drone strike in 2006.
Ayman al-Zawahiri
From two renowned Egyptian families, angered by 1966 execution of his uncle’s mentor Sayyid Qutb. Doctor in Peshawar clinic, imprisoned three years following Anwar Sadat assassination. Through Abdullah Azzam, treated UBL (may have had Addison’s disease) and provided strategic support.
Zawahiri’s Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ) rivalled by the “Blink Sheikh” Omar Abdul Rahman’s Gamaa al-Islamiya. In need of money/recruits, EIJ merged with AQ summer 2001.
As AQ shifted from central hierarchy to web of affiliates, UBL and Zawahiri oversaw AQ Central (“Khorasan”). After UBL death, AQAP under Nasser al-Wuhayshi, Al-Shabaab under Harun Fazul and AQIM under Abdelmalek Droukdal pledged bayat to Zawahiri. But failed to manage irreconcilable differences between ISIL and AQ-affiliate al-Nusra.
Embarrassingly, Zawahiri pledged bayat to Taliban leader Mullah Omar when he’d been dead for 15 months. He later pledged bayat to successors Mullah Mansour and Hibatullah Akhundzada. Also protected by the Haqqani Network.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
Aspiring young cleric (like Omar, not technically from Baghdad) released from Camp Bucca (“the Academy”) in 2004. Claimed bloodline to Muhammed and declared caliphate (AQI to ISI to ISIL to IS). So secretive he wasn’t even identified during senior meetings. Other key leaders included #2 Abu Muslim al-Turkmani, Zarqawi mentee Abu Ali al-Anbari, and spokesperson Abu Muhammed al-Adnani.
Haji Bakr planned invasion of Iraq from Syria and military strategist Abu Abdul Rahman al-Bilawi planned capture of Mosul. IS able to recruit former Saddam Hussein soldiers who hated Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki’s hardline Shia policies. Well-produced propaganda drew foreign fighters from over 100 countries. Would open “community centers” in towns then murder leaders. Well-funded by extortion, robbery, and ransom.
Core ideological differences with AQ/Zawahiri about what stage of the “Management of Savagery” they were in (AQ wanted to win public support before declaring caliphate). Also, Baghdadi refused to pledge bayat to Taliban.
Won high-profile affiliates like Boko Haram but increasingly hit strike soft targets as lost territory.
Vocabulary:
Indians, pushed into rocky Osage County in northern Oklahoma, became oil rich. From 1921-26, 24+ Osage killed via poisoning, gunshots, and explosions. Local/state sheriffs and private investigators couldn’t solve. J. Edgar Hoover, recently promoted to BOI Director and looking to repair the Bureau’s reputation following a CHS that had murdered a policeman, appointed Texas SAC Tom White to lead a team of undercovers to solve. White diligently exhausted leads, uncovering a massive scheme by William Hale to extract money and headrights from Osages. Prosecutions faced many obstacles: juries bribed/racist, witnesses caved under pressure, struggled to prove federal jurisdiction, but ultimately got life sentences for key players. White went on to become highly respected warden at Leavenworth Prison, Kansas–surviving kidnapping during an escape attempt. Years later, author draws circumstantial links to other murders likely connected.
Group Typology:
White Supremacy
KKK: Three waves from 1865-69; 1915-1930; 1955-1990. Leaders compete for political office (e.g. David Duke and the “Klean Klan”).
Neo-Nazis: American Nazi Party established 1959. Use pseudoscience to defend racial superiority.
Skinheads: Emerged from neo-Nazis in 1980s. Highly fragmented, groups include White Aryan Resistance (WAR); Hammerskin Nation. Built around punk music; tend to be younger, almost never attack LE.
Anti-Government
Militias: Driven by 1980s “farm crisis,” Ruby Ridge, and Waco. Motivated by perceived violations of Second and Fourth Amendments. 1990s conspiracy theories (e.g. New World Order hijacking US) recently shaped to be more palatable (e.g. Deep State bureaucracies oppressing constitutional rights). III Percenters; Oath Keepers.
Sovereign Citizens: Since late 1970s; believe federal overreach exceeds founding fathers’ intentions.
Christian Identity
Aryan Nations: Fragmented around charismatic pastors until Richard Butler laid groundwork for 1980s creation. Cherry-pick Bible verses to support segregation homo/transpohobia, and Aryan superiority. The Order was a 1983 offshoot.
Antiabortion: Grown since 1970s. Good v. evil moral/religious framing.
General: Overall, attacks have been increasing since 1990 (especially with demographic shifts and in presidential election years). More attacks during Republican-controlled Congresses (more tolerant and/or more likely to be influenced). Unlike other terrorism, 58% are conducted by a lone individual. Mostly single 28yo males with criminal records. Most targets are minorities/LGBTQ (vulnerable, governmental/leftist targets are rare). Most attacks spontaneous, disorganized, and sometimes internal violent disputes. Relative to international terrorism, attacks are low casualty (54% vandalism/intimidation, <2% mass casualty)—though trending more lethal/sophisticated (esp. militias with veterans). Groups seek to enhance legitimacy by publicly denouncing violence and recruiting former law enforcement. Engage in “low-end cooperation” at events, but remain fragmented and mergers are rare. Ironically, many nationalist groups are creating international chapters.
Chris Boyce (Falcon) and Andrew Lee (Snowman) grew up together in affluent California suburb of Palos Verdes. In their early 20s (mid-1970s), both struggled to find direction; Boyce loved falconry and Lee became a drug dealer with connections to Mexican cartels. Boyce’s father (FBI agent) helped get TRW clerk job, was assigned to brand new/highly sensitive CIA/NSA satellite IMINT/SIGINT/Comms collection program. Disillusioned with Vietnam, Nixon, and seedy coworkers, Boyce decided to sell information to Soviets. Lee, with warrant for arrest, essentially moved to Mexico City and walked into Soviet Embassy. Delivered several packets for $60K (of which Lee kept $45K). Lee traveled to Vienna for KGB tradecraft training. With Lee’s addiction and unpredictability, Boyce tried to cut him out. Lee threatened to tell Boyce’s father and Boyce considered murdering Lee.
Eventually, both went to embassy together and KGB cut out Lee, first throwing him out of a moving car and later causing a scene at embassy gate. Mexican police arrested for pot but found Top Secret photos and thought connected to separate murder. Under coercive interrogation, truth slowly emerged and turned over to FBI. Boyce was arrested flying his falcon at a turkey farm a few days later, but stonewalled FBI telling them they lacked clearance. President Carter appealed (unsuccessfully) for Mexican police to testify at trial. Defenses: Only provided CIA-approved misinformation, information wasn’t actually sensitive, dragged unwittingly by the other. Boyce fought back by revealing CIA interference in Australian labor union politics to protect Pine Gap facility. Boyce got 40 years; Lee got life. Ironically, only the Russians know everything they received (Boyce too drunk to remember everything he sent). Afterwards, CIA instituted unannounced security inspections of contractors; Russians began encrypting telemetry messages.
Most people peak in the morning, trough after lunch, and recover in the evenings. During peak we excel at analytic work requiring sharpness, vigilance, and focus. During recovery we do better on insight work that requires less inhibition and resolve. Battle troughs by taking restorative breaks (maximize movement, social interaction, outdoors, detachment, yoga/meditation). Naps under 30 minutes are good (“Zamboni for the mind”).
Improve mornings by drinking a glass of water when you wake up and getting as much sun as possible. Exercise in the morning to lose weight, boost mood, keep to your routine, and build strength. Exercise in the evening to avoid injury, perform your best, and enjoy the workout.
Try to go first if you’re on a ballot, not the default choice, there are few competitors, or up against strong candidates. Try not to go first if you’re the default choice, there are many competitors, or the competition is meager. Couples who are over 25 and date for three or more years are unlikely to split up; the more a couple spends on the ring, the more likely they are to be divorced.
The average midlife crisis occurs at 52.9 years. Teams behind by just one point at halftime are actually MORE likely to win the game. To break a midpoint slump, set interim goals, publically commit to them, make a habit of working every day, picture one person your work will help.
If you give people a hard deadline for an assignment they’re more likely to follow through. “Peak-end rule” says when we remember an even we assign the greatest weight to its most intense moment (the peak) and how it culminates (end). Use the last five minutes of each work day to write what you accomplished, plan for next day, and a thank you letter to someone. Respond to emails quickly. As people age, they maintain fewer but tighter friends. Movies require poignancy because adding an element of sadness to an otherwise happy ending elevates our impression of it. Nostalgia can foster a positive mood, protect against anxiety and boost creativity.
Enlisted, three years with USMC in embassy security (Sofia, Madrid). On colleague’s recommendation, joined FBI (500 acre Academy). Five years at WFO, involved in Iranian embassy expulsion and Reagan assassination attempt (took custody of Hinckley’s gun). Moved to Miami where wife was stationed.
Platt and Matix conducted five bank/armored car robberies from October 1985-March 1986. On hunch they usually struck Friday mornings, 14 agents conducted surveillance on April 11. Unlucky factors: license plate tip took too long to process, left shotgun in other trunk, two agents using restroom, one was inside bank, radio system had lag, two drivers lost guns while stopping vehicle, SA Grogan agent lost eye glasses, civilian cars drove through firefight blocking shots. Firefight saw ~140 shots in five minutes. SA Mireles hit twice in forearm and grazed head but fired lethal shots to Platt and Matix (took 12 and 6 hits, respectively) as they tried to escape in Grogan’s car. Plain-clothed for surveillance, fortunate arriving officers didn’t shoot at Mireles.
More a result of time and chance than being “outgunned.” BUT led to higher capacity magazines, broader use of MP-5 and shotguns, more training in moving and shooting. Fight or flight: tunnel vision, time distortion, slow motion, auditory exclusion, sense of detachment, traumatic amnesia.
Wife informed pregnant with Christian April 16, day after massive arm surgery. In January 1987, returned for Night Duty at field office and noticed car thief on CCTV so made arrest with cast on arm. Taught at FBI Academy for two years, then back to Miami. Subsequently involved in undercover work and another shootout.
Owner gave Northrup’s father’s freedom in will. Born 1808, married 1829, worked moving timber along canals and cutting wood. Two men approached asking him to play violin for circus, while in DC drugged him and moved to James Burch’s slave pen in the shadow of the Capitol. Claims of free papers just brought beatings by paddle and rope. Traveled through Aquia Creek, Fredericksburg, Richmond, and Norfolk—and eventually to New Orleans. Planned boat escape but co-conspirator died of sickness.
First owner William Ford was “noble” and “kind” but had to sell 18 slaves due to financial problems.
Second owner Tibeats was demonic, and Northrup snapped, striking him with blow after blow. Ford’s mortgage on Northrup (now called “Platt”) saved him from being hung. Later had to run away into a moccasin snake and alligator-infested swamp to escape Tibeats and hunting dogs.
Third owner Epps was generally bad, but especially when drink. Frequently made slaves dance for him, made Platt whip other slaves including friend Patsy.
Tasks ranged from hoeing/picking cotton, growing corn, cutting sugar cane, building construction, and playing violin. Overseer follows slaves on horseback with whip in the field. Picking requires nimble fingers, cotton is weighed each night, must do at least as good as previous day. At night, other chores (feed mules, cuts wood). Bed was wooden plank 12 inches wide; pillow was stick of wood. Ate mostly bacon, sometimes infested with worms. Best time of year was Christmas, got three days off and party at neighboring plantation.
Told nobody of freeman status for fear of beatings. Tried one contact to help write letter, turned him in and had to deny. Told white construction partner (Bass) who helped mail letters, but took nearly a year for friends to handle litigation and get support of Louisiana congressman and sheriff. Friend arrived with local sheriff and took Northrup home. Tried to prosecute Burch but Northrup was not allowed to testify as a colored man.
BLUF: Capitalism proved itself superior to communism, but low taxes and deregulation have gone too far for the modern global economy. Inequality is rising drastically and the middle class is disappearing.
For the rich it’s safer and easier to just sit on assets for gains rather than invest in a new factory or company:
15% of money coming out of the largest financial institutions goes toward “productive lending” which helps people build businesses.
85% just goes around a closed loop of the financial system, assets being bought and sold by the same people as the value climbs up and up.
The concentration of capital ownership is exacerbating inequality because the rate of return on capital since 1700 (4-5%) vastly exceeds the rate of economic growth (1.6%). Meanwhile, inheritances are increasing to levels rivaling 18th Century aristocrats.
Societies with more inequality have less social mobility. Two-thirds of today’s population is on track to be poorer than their parents. Economic unrest leads to political unrest. In desperation, people cling to their nationality or religion and lash out at their nearest enemy.
Ideas:
Tax companies based on where their sales are (not where they’re incorporated)
Tax all billionaires higher, especially those who are not engaged any and productive lending, but just sitting on assets.
Tunnel: End of VENONA, no HUMINT, minimal IMINT, and Soviet nuclear test left US starving for intelligence in the early 1950s. British used small tunnels to tap communications in Vienna (Operation Silver). CIA/SIS jointly began quarter-mile tunnel in south Berlin (Operational Gold). Brash former FBI Agent and CIA Berlin Operations Chief Bill Harvey oversaw team of CIA officers and Army Corp of Engineers. Blake quickly disclosed the tunnel to the KGB. Disguised warehouse as operational radar station. Practiced in Albuquerque but construction encountered setbacks: unexpectedly high water table, sewage tank, rudimentary survey equipment. Brits expertly tapped three major Red Army cables, team of ~150 translated a gold mine of intelligence about Soviet order of battle/nuclear posture, Khrushchev’s power broker status, and other blackmail/gossip. Feared discovery when farmer’s trees died and snow melted above tunnel. After 11 months, in conjunction with Khrushchev’s 1955 visit to England, KGB finally leaked clues of tapping to Soviet Army which discovered the trove of advanced Western electronic equipment. Harvey wanted to detonate tunnel, but was overruled, instead sat at American end with a 50 caliber machine gun while it was blockaded with concrete. Soviets gave tours to the press and blamed solely on Americans. At the time, CIA attributed to routine maintenance and bad luck—not mole. Contrary to many accounts, information from the tunnel proved useful for many years and there has been no evidence of Soviet disinformation.
Blake: SIS (MI6) Korea station chief George Blake volunteered as Soviet spy while a North Korean POW (disenchanted with American leadership/bombing, abandoned Christianity, infatuated with communism). After war, was nearly caught meeting KGB handler but surveillance dropped for a few hours. Blake assigned to Station Y which oversaw ultra-secret tapping operations, immediately shared tunnel plans. KGB fed him sources to bolster his status within SIS, hoping he would become station chief Moscow. Turned over troves of information some of which led to the capture of GRU spy Pyotr Popov. Blake successfully lobbied for a post in Lebanon but fell under suspicion in 1961 due largely to Polish defector Michael Goleniewski. He was interrogated and confessed after being accused of flipping under duress in Korea. Sentenced to an unprecedented 42 years, he escaped after 5 years with the help of three men he befriended in prison. After two months hiding out in England, he hid in a RV to East Germany, where the KGB returned him to Moscow. Although disillusioned with communist society, the KGB offered him retired general status. He remarried and wrote a memoir but died in 2020. Information he provided may have led to the capture of close to 100 Western sources, but Blake refused to accept any responsibility for their executions.
Beginnings: No student government or boy scouts, but lived in books (mother: “Read a book and tell me something you learned”). At Columbia, stripped excess belongings (“who needs more than five shirts?”). After 2000 DNC, was almost 40, coming off a humiliating defeat for Senator with a strained marriage. In 18 months of campaigning, took 7 days off. As Senator, began to speak up on Katrina. One tactical error of 2008 was trying to win both Ohio and Texas; which let Hillary persist. Grandma “Toot” died on the eve of the election.
Foreign Policy: Despite polar opposite backgrounds, respected and needed Bob Gates (“even-keeled and refreshingly blunt, with the quiet confidence to both argue his case and change his mind”). Iraq straightforward, Afghanistan split team (military prided itself on accomplishing missions regardless of cost/duration). Even those who complain about America’s role in the world relied on us to keep the system afloat. Wrote a Berlin speech around “community of fate” but realized hours before the phrase was used in Hitler’s first addresses to the Reichstag. Viewed Nobel Peace Prize as a call to action. Efforts to try terrorists in NYC were universally opposed. Mullen testimony instrumental to ending Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. Palestinians splintered after Arafat’s 2004 death; Israeli attitudes toward peace hardened as they became stronger; meetings felt rehearsed—as if going through the motions. With official comms down, approved Libyan intervention from a personal cell phone in Brazil. Wasn’t supposed to view live feed of UBL raid, but noticed in small Sit Room and the team followed.
Economy: Inherited the culmination of structural problems in both financial system (mortgage-backed securities, overleveraged banks) and automotive (bad management, foreign competition, overreliance on SUVs). Addressed with TARP and Recovery Act. CEOs were ousted and DoJ racked up record settlements, but antiquated laws protected bankers from criminal liability (used public outrage to push through watered down Dodd-Frank).
Healthcare/Environment: Any major healthcare bill meant rejiggering one-sixth of the US economy, Pelosi artfully and narrowly worked it through both houses. Created incentives to help clean tech overcome institutional disadvantages—Solyndra was PR flop. Crashed BRIC meeting at 11th hour in Copenhagen to browbeat China into signing agreement (precursor to Paris). Haunted by 87 days of video of Deepwater Horizon; Rahm got concessions out of BP, Chu assembled top physicists to solve.
Politics: Republican party increasingly defined by victimization/resentment (and belief government can’t be trusted to be fair). Palin laid groundwork for Trump. Trump offered to plug Deepwater Horizon well or build “beautiful ballroom” on south lawn. McConnell had no close friends or strong convictions—only difference from Trump was he had boundaries/filter. Regrets he didn’t push Reid harder to abolish the filibuster. Formulaic media presents one side, the other side, and an opinion poll to decide who’s right.
Other: Of 3M federal employees; a few thousand political appointees; <100 have meaningful contact with the President (staffers routinely worked 12-hour days). Debates aren’t meant to answer questions, but convey a message. Unique among leaders, POTUS travels fully self-sufficient (C-17s carried multiple limos, ambulances, tactical teams). Read and acted on ten pieces of mail each day. Michelle called PDB the “Death, Destruction, and Horrible Things Book.” Considered asking to hold applause at SOTU but comms team nixed. Obama had never been inside Oval Office before elected president; preferred the private study on weekends so tours could look in. McDonough made stickers saying “Fight Cynicism.” Ethics of conferences: if it sounds fun, you can’t go.
Personal: Found/created time for basketball, golf, poker, pool, workouts every morning, dinner with family every night. Had as many as 9-10 cigarettes until quit when signed ACA. Purchase of homebrew kit made first presidential brewmaster. Bo was gift from Ted Kennedy.
Quote: “I’ve never been a big believer in destiny. I worry that it encourages resignation in the down-and-out and complacency among the powerful. I suspect that God’s plan, whatever it is, works on a scale too large to admit our moral tribulations; that in a single lifetime, accidents and happenstance determine more than we care to admit; and that the best we can do is try to align ourselves with what we feel is right and construct some meaning out of our confusion, and with grave and nerve play at each moment the hand we’re dealt.”
Science/Engineering
Conventional explosives detonate through chemical reactions which create a shockwave of compressed air.
Atomic weapons use fission (the splitting of heavy elements into lighter ones releasing the nucleus’ binding energy). Two fissile elements: uranium-235 (rare) and plutonium-239 (manmade). Trigger designs included colliding atoms (“gun-type”) or conventional shockwave (“introvert”). Detonation timed via spring-wound mechanical clocks and barometric switches.
Nuclear weapons (“the Super”) use thermonuclear fusion (the combination of light element into heavier ones). Teller-Ulam “bomb-in-a-box” design used hydrogen fuel wrapped around uranium-235 spark plug inside lead box. Early designs required three-parachute system to give bomber time to escape blast.
Radioactive fallout results from interactions of high-energy neutrons with other elements. Oxygen harmless so high altitude explosions less bad. But manganese (found in soil) becomes an isotope that emits dangerous gamma rays which can penetrate walls. Residual radiation can last years and by the time its noticed it’s often too late.
Early batteries had to be recharged every month until Sandia created “wooden bomb” using thermal batteries which lasted 25 years. Also developed “sealed-pit” bombs with pre-arranged tritium/deuterium gas design which multiplied fission and “boosted” yield. Yield-to-weight reached mathematical limit around 1963.
Tried to design “one-point safe,” meaning explosives wouldn’t cause nuclear explosion. Struggled to satisfy “always (work)/never (accident)” principle; USAF rejected several safety proposals for adding too much weight and limiting number of bombs B-52s could carry. In 1970s, finally put activation switch on missiles but in defiance SAC set passcode as 00000000.
Titan II was first ICBM with inertial guidance system (could not be jammed/spoofed). Used spinning gyroscopes aligned with True North and computer clock to calculate trajectory. Re-entry vehicles used copper/plastic to absorb/divert heat away from the warhead.
History
First atomic test (Trinity) in Los Alamos, July 1945. Truman’s advisors opposed public display, said use would save lives. Aug 6, Little Boy (uranium), Enola Gay, Hiroshima, killed 80K. Aug 9, Fat Man (plutonium), Bockscar, Kokura cloudy so Nagasaki (missed by more than a mile), 40K killed. 100K killed in Tokyo firebombing.
Considered sharing technology with USSR as first step to outlaw nuclear weapons, but few trusted Stalin (especially after communist aggression in East Europe). Truman insisted on secrecy and civilian control, creating Atomic Energy Commission (AEC). Los Alamos fabricated cores and explosive lenses; Sandia the rest (NM). Bitter infighting amongst services.
Despite 1947 bluster, US had only one “probably operable” warhead; proof of composite uranium-plutonium core allowed expansion of arsenal. First Soviet detonation (1949) was a stolen copy of Fat Man. Despite moral arguments against “the Super,” Soviets had been working on it since 1948 and Truman approved.
Eisenhower approved Army’s low-yield tactical approach but built “new look” foreign policy on massive retaliation empowering Curtis LeMay’s Strategic Air Command (SAC). He also reversed Truman, allowing military to order launch if unable to reach POTUS. Amidst interservice bickering, CJCS created Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP). First UK detonation (1952).
Early defense mechanisms included “picket ships” and “Texas towers,” improved by Distance Early Warning (DEW) Line of radar stations in Arctic. With ENIAC/MIT, USAF developed Semi-Automatic Ground Environment (SAGE), the first C2 systems for radars. False alarms included detection of moon, running training tapes. Realization US leadership could be decapitated with mere 35 missiles, built Raven Rock, Mount Weather, Greenbrier, Mount Pony.
Sputnik amplified perceived “bomber gap,” triggering several ICBM programs: Jupiter (Army), Polaris (USN), Thor, Atlas, Titan/Titan II, Minuteman (USAF); last two were best. Red Alert novel created perception of SAC as warmongers. New safeguards included psychiatric personnel screenings, combination locks, and accelerometer-based activations.
Kennedy introduced “flexible response” (or “graduated deterrence”) as Navy SLBMs offered second strike capabilities and “finite deterrence.” Learned gap didn’t exist (Soviets had 4 ICBMs, not 500), but politics drove continued ICBM development. Khrushchev tested JFK’s mettle with 1961 Berlin Crisis (threat to block NATO access to West Berlin) and Cuban Missile Crisis (first ever DEFCON 2). Resulted in Limited Test Ban Treaty and direct comms line between Washington and Moscow. McNamara eventually came around to MAD and a SIOP which would kill 30% of USSR population.
By 1970s, USSR had more ICBMs, but US still had more warheads and invented MIRVs. During détente, signed Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and Threshold Test Ban, but arms race continued. Carter’s vision for “minimal deterrence” undermined by perceived declining US power and new investments in Pershing II missile and B-2 bomber.
1983 was the most dangerous moment since 1962, but Reagan achieved rapport with Gorbachev and reached arms control deals. H.W. Bush unilaterally shrank nuclear stockpile and abolished SAC.
Global Strike Command was created in 2009. US has about 4,650: 300 assigned to long-range bombers, 500 to Minuteman ICBMs, 1,150 to Trident submarines, 200 stored with European allies, and remainder in reserve near Albuquerque.
Accidents
Categories: Empty Quiver: loss, theft, seizure. Bent Spear: minor damage. Broken arrow: serious explosion.
None of the 70K warheads built by the US has detonated, though due to luck as much as design. Have been several hundred accidents, most commonly:
Ground/runway fires: Morocco, Lake Charles, LA; Jackson Township, NJ; Suffolk, England; Medina TX; Kokomo, IN; Grand Forks, ND.
ICBM explosion: Thor Johnston Island. Minuteman Ellsworth AFB, SD. Titan II Damascus, AK. Jupiter Italy (lightning).
Plane crashes/collisions: Goldsboro, NC; Abilene, TX; Hardinsburg, Kentucky; Yuba City, CA; Cumberland, MD; Torrejon, Spain; Greenland.
Accidental bomb drop: Mars Bluff, SC.
Damascus Accident: 18 Titan II missile complexes in AK, each 7-10 miles away from the others. Launch required two keys, commander and deputy each had revolver. Once launched, complex could not destroy midflight or launch another. Complex 373-4 had already been site of 1965 fire killing 53 when welder hit temporary hydraulics line. In September 1980, worker dropped socket which punctured stage I fuel tank. Pressure in oxidizer tank was rising, fuel tank dropping, risking a rupture. After 12 hours of paralysis and bureaucratic infighting, sent in two men for dangerous mission. On way out, commander suggested turn on ventilation fan which sparked blast. Rocket stages exploded in sequence, blasting open silo door and raining concrete for miles. One died, several other injuries but warhead did not explode. USAF reports blamed heroic individuals, but retired Titan IIs a year later. Should have opened silo door, acted quicker, not turned on fan, not evacuated disaster response team, and not delayed rescue helicopter.
BLUF: While most Americans prefer to believe otherwise, the US has been an imperial power through ownership of colonies and the subordination of other races. We often sugarcoat this ugly history by eventually granting independence (e.g. Philippines) or at least special status (e.g. Puerto Rico is “commonwealth”).
Founders feared expansionism would create chaos, but created federally administered “territories.” In the 1830s, the USG stopped prosecuting squatters and began giving away parcels of public land as “homesteads.” The Daniel Boone pioneer image became wildly popular. Native American land was whittled down to present day Oklahoma (Choctaw word meaning “red people”).
1857-63: Claimed 59 uninhabited “Guano” islands in the Caribbean
1867: Bought Alaska from Russia.
1880s: Grant tried to buy Dominican Republic, but Congress opposed.
1898-1900: Won/bought Spain’s overseas empire (Philippines, Puerto Rico, Guam) and Hawaii, Wake Island, American Samoa. Most of these “colonies” were ever slated for statehood.
1917: Bought U.S. Virgin Islands
Strong racism against locals (or “savages”). In addition to slaughter/victimization in world wars, used Philippines and Puerto Rico as medical laboratories. By WWII, territories made up 20% of US landmass (and over 9M people). While Japan attached Pearl Harbor it also attacked the Philippines, Guam, Midway, Wake—and the British colonies Malaya, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Thailand.
After WWII, Americans made historically unprecedented decision to give up land (though driven by impact of technology on power as much as US magnanimity).
US today remains a “pointillist empire,” with specks of land around the world serving as military bases, staging grounds, detention facilities, and torture sites (US has 800 overseas bases, Russia has 9, most countries have 0).
Like Pete Davison, from Staten Island. Saw speech therapist as child. Went to Regis High School in NYC (2hr commute by bus, ferry, subway), competed in swimming, speech & debate. Mother longest-running chief medical officer of FDNY and among the first responders to 9/11. Harvard ’04 (concurrent with Zuckerberg, Buttigieg); walked on rowing team one year with Winklevi twins. Majored in Russian & British literature, and received grant to live in St. Petersburg to translate poem but got homesick. Focused on Harvard Lampoon (rejected twice but became President); housed in castle built by William Randolph Hearst. Post-graduation moved home and worked at local newspaper; stories on local racoon who received CPR but had to be put down placed on front page ahead of priest sex abuse.
Hired at SNL in 2005. Cadence: Monday pitch meeting, Tuesday writing, Wednesday table read, Thursday rewrite, Friday rehearsal/filming, Saturday show and two after-parties. Show is live but little/no room for improv because timing and camera angles predetermined. Concurrently toured as stand-up. Broke hand partying with Chicago Blackhawks, nearly drowned surfing with Jimmy Buffett. Wrote Brett Kavanaugh Cold Open; Damon flew from CA without haven seen the script. First season on Weekend Update was panned, but met acting coach and found stride with Michael Che. Award show audiences (Emmys) hostile because everyone is hungry, nervous, upset, and tired.
Ethical leaders have kindness to leaven toughness, a balance of confidence and humility, and empathy. They don’t run from criticism and accept flaws. They see beyond the short-term. They laugh but don’t yell or ask for loyalty. They use affection and guilt to motivate. They have values (e.g. truth, integrity) which provide external reference points for decisions—especially when there is no good or easy option.
Grew up in Yonkers (near Bronx), moved to Allendale, NJ and was held at gunpoint at 17 when “Ramsey Rapist” robbed his house. Stocked shelves in grocery store, where accidentally spilled 24 gallons of milk. Graduated W&M in 1982 (pre-med, religion); UChicago Law in 1985.
In 1987, joined SDNY as AUSA for Rudy Giuliani (egocentric, but rockstar). Worked mail theft, drug dealing, bank robbery, fraud, arms export, racketeering, murder, and helped dismantle La Cosa Nostra (“this thing of ours”) / John Gambino.
In 1993, moved to Richmond to more comfortably raise family. As AUSA EDVA, served as lead prosecutor in case concerning 1996 Khobar Towers bombing. Lost son Collin to bacteria called Group B streptococcus (wife Patrice let siblings say goodbye and traveled country raising awareness).
In 2001, Bush appointed US Attorney for SDNY. Criminal intent difficult to prove in financial crime, but took pains to ensure Martha Stewart wasn’t treated differently for being famous (our justice system is an honor system—people must fear the consequences of lying or it won’t work).
In 2003, appointed Deputy to AG John Ashcroft. DOJ OLC informed Comey top-secret NSA program STELLARWIND far exceeded legality. Heated Sit Room exchanges with VP Cheney/David Addington. When Ashcroft collapsed with acute pancreatitis, Comey and Mueller rushed to GW Hospital to stop Andy Card/Al Gonzalez from pressuring Ashcroft to sign off. Bush reauthorized anyway, Comey drafted resignation and mentioned Mueller would resign too; Bush eventually signed new order which incorporated OLC’s requested changes. After Abu Ghraib, realized DOJ needed to change stance on EIT (wife: “don’t be the torture guy”), tried to kick off NSC deputies meeting but was elevated to principals only.
In 2005, after Bush replaced Ashcroft with Gonzalez, Comey resigned to become Lockheed Martin General Counsel (also needed money to send five kids to college). In 2010, moved to Bridgewater Associates.
In 2013, Obama appointed FBI Director (Comey surprised given Republican affiliation). Obama requested only competence and independence (no help on policy). Comey respected Mueller’s post-9/11 reshaping of the FBI (prevention of splitting law enforcement/intelligence), but Comey set new tone by wearing blue shirt, no tie. Added Quantico curriculum with essay on illegal MLK surveillance (and kept memo on desk under glass). Started each day reviewing FISA requests and classified intelligence briefing.
Law enforcement and the black community had long been separate parallel lines—closer in some communities, farther apart in others—but those lines are arcing away from each other. At Georgetown, spoke on implicit bias and that law enforcement was not the root of the problem but helped enforce status quo. Later, upset White House by suggesting viral video culture may account for increased murder rate; but had productive exchange of perspectives with Obama. After Snowden revelations, watched adversaries move their communications out of reach.
Midyear Exam was not focused on Clinton’s private server, but her mishandling of classified information (~36 secret topics, 8 top secret topics). Paled in comparison to 2011 Petraeus’ intentional leaks, which only earned him $40K/2 years’ probation. DOJ policies had exceptions to no-comment policy for investigations of extraordinary public interest or activity apparent to public. Clinton lawyers delayed access to laptops used for sorting. With AG Lynch politically compromised, felt compelled to hold July 5 briefing.
Unwritten norm DOJ/FBI should avoid any interference in the run-up to the election. Weiner criminal team noticed hundreds of thousands of emails from Clinton’s personal domain—until then FBI only knew of 60K—including from her first months as SecState, where she might have been advised against using personal email. Team didn’t raise until late October—options were speak (“really bad”) or conceal (“catastrophic”). October 28 letter to Congress leaked in ten minutes. Custom FBI software expedited review to finish two days before election. Hindsight: “I would do the same thing again, given my role and what I knew at the time. But I also think reasonable people might well have handled it differently” (e.g. special prosecutor—but delay?, waited for more review before letter—but leak?).
In addition to WH concerns of appearing partisan, Comey worried that publicizing Russian tampering with the election could further Russia’s objective of sowing doubt in the outcome. Briefed results of post-election ICA to WH, Gang of 8, and president-elect team. Unconcerned about implications, Trump team (Priebus, Pence, Spicer) immediately and openly began discussing how to spin to their favor (e.g. imply interference didn’t impact result). For fear of “pulling a Hoover” in discussing Steele Dossier, Comey prepared to inform Trump he was not personally under investigation. Series of uncomfortable encounters with Trump, notably awkward hug at post-inauguration Blue Room reception, private dinner in Green Room, Valentine’s Day Oval Office meetings. Trump blabbered through endless topics, but an increasingly concerned Comey interjected to call out comment equating Russia and US as killers (silence = complicity).
Fired via cable news while speaking in LA, McCabe authorized plane ride home infuriating Trump who saw it on TV (told McCabe: “Ask your wife how it feels to be a loser” and hung up). US Attorney in Baltimore, Rod Rosenstein had recently praised Comey for his handling of Clinton case, but authored pretext for firing. Only once before had FBI director been fired before end of term (Sessions in 1993 over ethical improprieties). Was ready to recede from public eye until Trump tweeted about tapes, which triggered a thought that a special counsel might access tapes so had friend leak unclassified “I hope you can let Flynn go” memo.
Anecdotes: 6’8”, once bumped head on Oval Office doorframe and had to tilt head in different directions throughout meeting to keep blood inside hairline. Bush had sense of humor—had Comey pause his Oval Office CT brief so they could watch the helicopter kick up snow on the press corps. In the grueling days after 9/11, Mueller’s wife prodded him to make sure his people were holding up under the stress. Early the next morning, he dutifully telephoned key members of his staff asking, “How’re you doing?” When each offered the perfunctory reply of “’Fine, sire” he replied “Good” and hung up. FBI has strong gun culture; vast majority of agents carry to meetings. 2/3 of FBI employees are not agents; annual attrition is 0.5%. Comey waited in line in cafeteria; chatted those around him. After asking one computer server expert about his work, guy replied, “how ’bout yourself?” Comey: “I’m the director.” Guy (bobbing his head side to side): “Director of…?” Comey: “Dude, I’m the director of the FBI. You work for me.” Awkward pause. Guy: “You look different online.” Where Bush and Obama sat at chair in front of fireplace, Trump preferred to be behind his desk, a mark of insecurity. “Green table” refers to testifying before Congress.
Father was international development worker, spent childhood in Iran West Africa, and Haiti. Served in the 101st Airborne and FBI from 1996-2018. First two years as CT analyst and remainder as CI agent, rising to Deputy of the Counterintelligence Division.
BACKGROUND: Counterintelligence includes all efforts to thwart an adversary’s intelligence work (can be proactive/reactive). Most CI is a series of loose ends with no conclusion (“wilderness of mirrors”). After 9/11, took custody of hijackers’ car and conducted interviews at Logan Airport. Worked on Ghost Wars–the 2010 arrest of Russian illegals in MA, NY, NJ, VA. Part of 40-person Boston arrest team of Andrey Bezrukov & Elena Vavilova; local policeman accidentally obstructed the caravan. Promptly traded illegals for spies in Russia—including Sergei Skripal (who was later poisoned in 2018). The Chelsea Manning leak thrust WikiLeaks into the global stage and threw them into Russia’s orbit (Julian Assange received a show on the recently established RT America). Learned how Russia mastered “active measures” by manipulating the narrative of their invasion of Chechnya. Also worked leaks to then-NYT reporter James Risen.
MIDYEAR EXAM: In 2014, became ASAC for counterespionage/counterproliferation at WFO (extraterritorial AOR). Congressional Benghazi investigations forced DoS IG to release Clinton emails, which noticed some information was classified. Strzok & senior analyst (“Derek”) set up team in “bubble” at HQ. Clinton only used blackberry, but used several different servers (including one managed by private company, PRN). Tedious review required originating agencies to say if classified (also encountered later “upclassifying”). Damage assessment concluded private servers were actually probably less vulnerable to foreign hacking than DoS. Nearly finished, Clinton’s attorneys stonewalled on laptop access, delaying investigation months. President Obama and AG Lynch comments on Clinton “matter” poor optics, but Lynch’s private meeting with Bill Clinton convinced senior FBI leadership to publicly announce results. This was not without precedent (Michael Brown, Jose Padilla), though a mistake in hindsight. Comey changed “gross negligence” to “extremely careless.” Comey made coins to congratulate team, but when political climate intensified, never distributed. // Sept 28, NYFO casually mentioned Anthony Weiner laptop had thousands of emails. A miscommunication between WFO and NYO supervisors led to three week delay. With indications the e-mails could lend insight to Clinton’s mindset, FBI leadership decided they needed a search warrant. Comey, an ethical and gifted communicator who welcomed debate, listened to arguments on both sides and decided concealment would be the worst outcome. Oct 28 letter to Congress immediately leaked. Didn’t expect to finish review before election but went faster than expected and cleared Clinton two days before election.
CROSSFIRE HURRICANE: March 2016, Podesta email hacked. July 2016, Trump publicly announced “Russia if you’re listening…” Within five hours, Russia launched a new cyber attack on Clinton’s server. After, FBI learned an ambitious Trump aid George Papadopoulos told the Australian ambassador Russia offered damaging information on Clinton. While conducting interviews in Europe, Strzok opened case with unknown subject (UNSUB) and chose name from Rolling Stones song. Focused on members with known Russia ties: Papadopoulos, Carter Page (desire for money, commencement speech), Paul Manafort (Ukrainian oligarchs, shared polling data), Michael Flynn (sat next to Putin at RT dinner). Page, already of FBI interest, was the only one with predication for FISA warrant (apart from one troubling instance of modifying an email, Strzok attributes mistakes uncovered by IG to moving too quickly under extreme secrecy). In September, FBI received first reports from Chris Steele (former MI6 but working for Fusion GPS/Marco Rubio); though most was impossible to prove or disprove. FBI Cyber Division was focused on election infrastructure until a private expert alerted of Russian social media activity. Obama White House remained totally paralyzed for fear of appearing partisan (Susan Rice had Comey write op-ed, but never published). Finally put out anodyne statement on Oct 7 (3pm), but drowned out by Access Hollywood tape (6pm) and then WikiLeaks posting of Podesta emails (6:30pm). Trump Jr. alluded to emails in private texts and retweeted Russian bots (@Ten_GOP). // Dec 29, Obama expelled 35 Russian intelligence officials and closed property in MD and NY diplomats used to vacation. At request of Flynn via Amb. Kislyak, Putin uncharacteristically did not retaliate. DNI Clapper asked Comey to address Steele allegations privately after intel chiefs briefed President elect; Trump responded “Which year?…there were no prostitutes.” After AG Sessions lied about contact with Kislyak in confirmation hearings, he joined investigation. After Flynn’s Kislyak call leaked, Strzok interviewed Flynn in West Wing where he repeatedly and inexplicably lied (while Trump decorated the Oval Office). Papadopolos lied to agents in Chicago. After Pence lied on Face the Nation, Flynn resigned and Trump told Comey “I hope you can let this go.” Comey compiled seven secret memos of his uncomfortable interactions with Trump, but did not initially share with Strzok to avoid influencing the team.
SPECIAL COUNSEL: Trump fired Comey May 9, 2017 and told Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov “I faced great pressure because of Russia. That’s taken off” (and reiterated to Lester Holt). Soon emerged Trump asked DAG Rod Rosenstein to write memo for pretext. Rosenstein an enigma/“survivor” (helped fire Comey, but appointed special counsel, offered to wear wire/invoke 25th amendment, but stood behind Barr). In crisis, FBI HQ scrambled to preserve evidence from interference (Strzok put Comey memos into Sentinel case filing system). Reversing a decision from January, FBI opened case on Trump personally and McCabe briefed Gang of Eight in Congress, who expressed no objections. Comey leaked one of his memos to prompt appointment of special counsel (ironically, Comey was then scolded for possible classified information in his memos). // Bob Mueller and Deputy Aaron Zebley (W&M grad) recruited attorneys; Strzok brought over FBI investigators. Moved at a blistering pace, expanding scope to others (e.g. Michael Cohen) and conducting 500 interviews, 2,800 subpoenas, 500 search warrants. Press sometimes beat Special Counsel (e.g. NYT uncovered June 2016 Don Jr. Trump Tower meeting with a Kremlin-connected lawyer). In early July, Trump began “witch hunt” attacks, threatening to fire Mueller.
DENOUEMENT: Republican Congressmen demanded FBI IG investigate Midyear Exam, including texts sent from Bureau-issued devices. Strzok’s included disparaging remarks about Trump and Mueller asked him to leave. Bureau reassigned to HR, where oversaw Puerto Rico hurricane response. Separately, McCabe was fired hours before he was eligible to retire after he initially failed to disclose to the IG his authorization to release information to the WSJ about the FBI’s investigation of the Clinton Foundation. Papadopoulos signed a plea agreement, Manafort and Rick Gates received 12-count indictments, and Flynn pled guilty to lying. In December 2017, someone (likely DOJ political appointee) leaked Strzok’s texts to the NYT/WaPost. According to Google, Strzok accounted for 15% of combined daily airtime of Fox and Fox Business News. Trump posted 100+ tweets accusing him of treason; FBI Security Division began monitoring threats against Strzok’s family. FBI IG Horowitz initially found no fault in Midyear, but upon discovering Strzok’s “We will stop it” text concluded couldn’t discount bias in the investigation. Strzok was placed on administrative leave and eventually fired. Testified in both closed and open sessions of Congress. Mueller determined he couldn’t charge sitting president but laid the roadmap for Congress; unfortunately Barr distorted (to the point Mueller objected) and Mueller’s style did not suit Congressional testimony format. Nearly every action Trump took (WikiLeaks praise, disparagement NATO, false moral equivalence) aligned with Russia’s strategic interests. Every lie Trump told gave Putin more kompromat (in addition to questionable business activities, sexual escapades, Trump Foundation).
BUREAU: A good interview should feel like an informal but purposeful chat—natural and direct, not awkward and disjointed (avoid panels). HUMINT is frequently imprecise, ephemeral, and sometimes completely unreliable. Be wary of information intended to influence as well as inform. Arrests are the most fun; but senior agents should avoid. When traveling by plane, agents usually sit separately to minimize attention.
4,500,000,000 years ago: Formation of Planet Earth
3,800,000,000: Organisms Appear
175,000,000: Pangea begins to break apart
6,000,000: Humans and Chimpanzees Split
70,000: Cognitive Revolution and emergence of storytelling
Even with larger brains, sapiens remained marginal creatures (“underdogs of the savanna”) until they domesticated fire and learned to cooperate.
Many species communicate, but sapiens do so more frequently and sophisticated (can maintain relationships with ~150, acquaintances with ~500, recognize ~1,500).
Our modern religious, political, and economic systems aren’t any different from ancient tribes’ imaginary spirits—they’re a fiction constructed to serve a purpose.
30,000: Extinction of Neanderthals leaves only Homo Sapiens (Stone Age)
Sapiens lived in diverse groups of ~100; not nuclear families (in Sudan today, Bari Indians believe more sperm creates better children so women have sex with as many men as possible). They migrated based on season, animal migration, and plant cycles (foraging was much more common than hunting).
With a wholesome diet, relatively short week, low instance of disease, and exquisite knowledge of the environment, not a bad time to live. About 5% died from violence, roughly the same as the 20th Century (1.5% today for war/crime). Life expectancy (30-40) pulled down largely by infant deaths.
12,000: Agricultural Revolution, domestication of plants and animals, and population boom.
Sapiens made it to Australia, then crossed Siberian land bridge to Americas. In Australia, sapiens hunted 23 of the 24 100lb+ species to extinction used fire to reshape the ecosystem.
Humans fear spiders more than cars (even though cars kill more humans) because evolution hasn’t taught us to be scared of cars yet.
5,000: First Kingdoms, script and money. Polytheistic religions.
500: Scientific Revolution
200: Industrial Revolution
Cohen became millionaire as personal injury lawyer and taxi medallion/property businessman. Ran unsuccessfully for NYC council and state senate. Don Jr. introduced to Trump in 2006, quickly worked his way to EVP & Special Counsel as a fixer (like Roy Cohn did for Joe McCarthy during Red Scare, then Donald Trump during DOJ discrimination probes). Despite his family’s pleadings, Cohen couldn’t quit Trump Organization, obsessed by cult of personality and lust for glamor/power. Death threats earned him NYPD permission for concealed carry, appealing to his mobster self-image. After fake spokespeople John Barron (1980s), Johnny Miller (1990s), Cohen adapted that role, constantly calling journalists. Anecdotes:
Cohen’s first job was to aggressively close Trump Mortgage, firing all on spot and seizing documents.
Cohen had the CIO of Liberty University manipulate a CNBC poll of leading business executives to push Trump from 187th place to 9th.
Tried to buy the Buffalo Bills for $1B, but no banks were willing to loan Trump that amount of money. Trump regularly inflated his assets to win loans and reduced them for taxes (was never worth more than $2B).
In auction, used friend to bid up the price of his portrait to $60K, then repaid friend from Trump Foundation using a charitable tax deduction.
Acquired Trump Winery in Charlottesville from his friend by putting a lien on adjacent land and building a massive “Trump” wall nearby so he could buy it for cheap. Put Eric in charge.
Trump regularly ripped off contractors. He selected cheap paint for Doral Golf Course, then refused to pay. Cohen threatened lawsuits/boycotts until he reached CEO of Benjamin Moore and negotiated a $300K credit.
Trump deplored Barack Hussein Obama long before WH Correspondents dinner. Regularly asked Cohen to “Name one country led by a black person that isn’t a shit-hole.” Hired an Obama actor to fire. Skipped 2012 run because of Apprentice, but Birtherism revealed potential.
Trump insisted on pre-approving all Comedy Central roast jokes; his wealth, bankruptcies, and hair were off-limits.
National Enquirer publisher David Pecker paid $150K to kill story of 9-month affair with Karen McDougal (Playboy); Trump stiffed him on reimbursement. Trump offered Stormy Daniels a spot on The Apprentice in exchange for sex; Daniels originally denied but saw monetary opportunity during campaign. Cohen had to pay $130K out of pocket, and was repaid with fake legal fees (Trump: “$130K is less than I’d have to pay Melania, although I think my supporters would think it’s cool I slept with a porn star”).
Trump: “Look at that piece of ass.” Cohen: “That’s my daughter.” Trump: “When did she get so hot?” Then asked her to kiss him. // Cohen: “Did you cheat?” Hannity: sigh “There are so many women in the world.”
Trump admired Putin because he was a trillionaire, the richest in the world, and controlled 25% of the Russian economy (wanted that for himself). Mafia-tied acquaintance Felix Sater initiated effort to build 120-story tower in Red Square Moscow with a penthouse for Putin. Ivanka was hands off until she heard there were plans for a 20K ft2 “Ivanka Spa.”
**_2016 __Campaign_**: Three kids asked Cohen to talk Trump out of running. Trump hired alcoholic Lewandowski as campaign manager because he was cheapest; fired after floating allegations Kushner was gay. After escalator announcement, Trump developed persona at rallies, which thrilled him like a drug. David Pecker invented false attacks on opponents (e.g. Ted Cruz’s father was involved in JFK assassination, Ben Carson left sponge inside patient, Marco Rubio had cocaine connection, Carly Fiorina had a “druggie daughter”). More than nationalism or Russia or Comey, the key to Trump’s win was the media coverage; Trump’s chaos made great stories and helped ratings (though no publication mattered more to Trump than the NYTimes). After first debate, Megyn Kelly received death threats, so Ailes and Trump negotiated peace accord. After Cohen mentioned Trump needed to broaden his coalition, token blacks appeared behind him at each rally. Clinton campaign rented out 500K ft2 Javits Center, Trump hired drab ballroom at Marriott in recognition of fact he expected to lose.
Post-Election: After election, Trump promised personal attorney position but Cohen drifted from inner circle. After FBI agents raided Cohen’s house, Trump called to say he had his back; but it was the last time they ever spoke. Cohen pled guilty to eight counts to avoid indicting his wife; got 36 months in white collar prison upstate NY. Ate next to ‘Mike the Situation’ from Jersey Shore; received a month of solitary confinement during COVID.
General: Trump strongly narcissist with a knack for identifying sycophants. Always looking for how any situation can benefit himself. Brilliant at manipulating his public image, with no regard for truth. Prone to listen to whomever spoke last. Hated firing people—always had others do dirty work. Trump and Cohen both teetotalers. Cohen synced to Trump’s contacts and had access to his Twitter. Trump ok at golf—straight/lucky drives but regularly cheated around the green. Had scalp scars from a failed 1980s hair-implant operation; current look required three-step procedure: (1) flop up of hair from the back, (2) flip of the resulting overhand on his face, and (3) flap of his combover on the right side. Three oldest Trump kids were human and starved for his love. They were humiliated when egomaniacal father humiliated them by openly cheating on their mother; all were trapped in a cycle of seeking his approval. Trump regularly said “Don has the worst fucking judgment of anyone I have ever met” and he was reluctant to bestow his name. Ivanka sobbed when Jared broke up her because Ms. Kushner wanted an Orthodox daughter-in-law. Don Jr and Eric embarrassed their father by posing with dead endangered animals to troll PETA.
Early Life: Jho Low grew up minority ethnic Chinese Malay in Penang at the mouth of the Malacca Strait. Father became wealthy investor during Asian tiger boom and sent Low to UK boarding school to mingle with global elites. At Wharton, cultivated persona as “Prince of Malaysia” by spending beyond his means and plagiarizing articles in the school newspaper. Built network to include Middle Eastern royalty (e.g. UAE Ambassador Otaiba) and befriended Riza Aziz, stepson of Najib Razak (incoming PM of Malaysia).
Fraud: Created 1MDB investment fund under Najib, mimicking Mubadala in UAE which blurred boundaries between state and personal wealth. Declined official position but carefully orchestrated increasingly large investments to build credibility while skimming billions for himself: (1) PetroSaudi, run by Saudi Prince (2) IBIC, run by Emirati Khadem al Qubaisi. With help from ambitious young banker at Swiss bank BSI, made debt to PetroSaudi disappear through a series of convoluted transactions that involved purchase and sale of stake in worthless drill ship subsidiary to a shell company in the Cayman Islands. Thus, 1MDB made profit on paper and survived audits. Some on 1MDB BoD balked, but ME connections provided false legitimacy and Malaysia PM provided political cover. Increasingly looking abroad after 2008, Goldman Sachs/Gary Cohn erroneously viewed 1MDB like Singapore’s legitimate Temasek Holdings and helped sell billions in bonds. Malcom Turnbull’s son Alex raised internal concerns at Goldman but was told to stand down. Low also set up imitation companies with nearly identical names to trick investors (e.g. Aabar Investments). Low diverted millions in bribes to secure PM Najib’s 2013 re-election and used the loosely regulated art market and Geneva Freeport to move/store wealth—in addition to jewelry and real estate.
Lifestyle: Low had compulsion to spend (as much as $1M/night) to attract attention. With significant fees, Low brought dozens of A-list celebrities and models to his global parties (Leo DiCaprio, Paris Hilton, Jamie Foxx, Brittany Spears, Busta Rhymes, Kanye West, etc.) and dated Australian supermodel Miranda Kerr. Warner Brothers passed on DiCaprio/Scorsese’s film Wolf of Wall Street, so Low created own production company Red Granite to bankroll (Jordan Belfort himself suspected foul play). Low enjoyed the attention/recognition of lavish spending rather than the partying itself.
Downfall: Massive Goldman profits, suspicious financing of Red Granite, and whistleblowers caught journalists’ attention. Low hired Edelman PR to tamp down negative coverage and rebrand himself as a philanthropist. Deutsche Bank, initially following Goldman’s footsteps quickly noticed red flags. Low ordered destruction of all 1MDB documents in Malaysia but there were multiple copies. At the same time, a disgruntled former PetroSaudi employee leaked 140GB of evidence to a journalist (though he was subsequently browbeat into signing a false confession the documents were faked). PM Najib turned strongman as investigations opened in Malaysia, Singapore, Switzerland and—after the brutal murder of a Malay prosecutor—the FBI. Low took refuge in Shanghai, China loaned $4B to build goodwill, and Najib classified the national auditor’s report. But US DoJ hit hard with both civil and criminal charges. Najib was voted out of office and sentenced to 12 years prison. Low remains a fugitive hiding in China.
Definitions:
Prejudice: Prejudgment about another based on social group. Includes thoughts and feelings (e.g. stereotypes, attitudes, and generalizations). All humans have prejudices.
Discrimination: Action based on prejudice. Includes ignoring, exclusion, threats, ridicule, slander, violence.
Racism: When a group’s collective prejudice is backed by the power of legal authority and institutional control.
White Supremacy/Privilege: A culture which positions white people and whiteness as ideal. In virtually every situation or context deemed normal, neutral, or prestigious, whites belong. Many whites face barriers (e.g. classism), but not particular to their race.
History:
To reconcile the noble ideology of equality and the cruel reality of slavery (economically valuable), early Americans invented racial inferiority (and bogus “science” to justify it).
Whites seized on MLK’s line to “be judged by the content of his character and not the color of his skin” because it offered an easy solution: color blindness (pretend we don’t see race). But ignoring race makes it more difficult to address our unconscious prejudices.
The Civil Rights Era showed us racists were depraved people who commit intentional acts of racial discrimination (and “racist” became character assassination). But this allows those who don’t commit intentional discrimination to feel immune from the societal problem.
While well-intentioned, Black History Month actually reinforces that normal history is white history.
White Fragility: Whites (even many progressives) are hesitant to acknowledge their race has advantaged them. Even minimal racial stress triggers a range of defensive moves. Obstacles include:
Social taboos against talking about race.
Belief in individualism, rejection of any generalizations across social groups
Belief that they can be fully objective and meritocracy explains positions of others
Investments in a system which benefits them and they’ve been conditioned to see as fair.
Guilt over historical injustices
Way Forward: Acknowledge we don’t live in a post-racial society and building racial sensitivity is a life-long effort. Racism is complex, unavoidable, and all of us have blind spots. Comfort perpetuates the status quo, but it can be interrupted by demonstrating curiosity, humility, vulnerability, and growth. Get educated on race relations, put yourself in diverse environments, and build relationships. Avoid defensive responses like color blindness (e.g. “I don’t see race”) or color celebrations (e.g. “I have black friends”). If you do offend someone, breath, listen, reflect, and take time.
Supreme Court session runs October – June. It grants certiorari (hears) ~100-150 of the 7,000 (1-2%) cases it is asked each year. Chief Justice chairs conference every Friday, assigns who will write opinion. Throughout history, many justices were former senators, but recently been from executive branch or academia. Whereas splits on the Court were once regional or religious, they are now ideological. While Justices don’t consider themselves political beings, winning an appointment takes political savvy/relationships.
Federalist Society founded 1980 in favor of judicial restraint, but represented activism in its own way to roll back liberal Earl Warren Court rulings. Bork invented originalism, but his outspokenness on race sunk his nomination. Thomas’ nomination hearings left him bitter (kept a list in his desk of the 52-48 roll call in his nomination) and silent (no questions from 2006-16). Though he benefited from affirmative action at every step of his life, he believed it violated a “color-blind Constitution.”
Rehnquist had a single beer and one cigarette at lunch every day; though he was entitled to hire four clerks, he only hired three, to suit his weekly doubles tennis games. In Clinton impeachment, Rehnquist felt he “did nothing in particular, and…did it very well.” Souter, who missed Rehnquist’s funeral because he was unreachable in New Hampshire, kept a low profile and nearly resigned after Bush v. Gore. Kennedy loved attention, itching to hear Bush v. Gore, and laboring on sections of his opinions which might be quoted in the NYT. O’Connor, Souter, and Kennedy unexpectedly joined forces to protect Roe in Casey.
Clinton almost appointed Mario Cuomo over Ginsburg (who cleverly looked for cases where laws reflecting gender stereotypes penalized men). Conservatives looked to energized evangelicals and Jay Sekulow, who “came to Washington to do good and stayed to do well.” Rather than argue under freedom of religion (which was restricted by “Lemon Test”), Sekulow championed use of protection of speech to allow things like prayer in public forums.
2000 Election: Florida vote freakishly close (out of ~6M votes, Bush tallied lead of 327). Republicans owned governorship (Jeb Bush), Secretary of State (Katherine Harris), and majorities in both houses of legislature, but all members of Florida Supreme Court were appointed by Democrats. US Supreme Court actually heard two cases (Bush v. Palm Beach County Canvassing Board, Gore v. Katherine Harris). Justices grasped for a “federal issue,” but ultimately swing Kennedy struck down recount on Equal Protection grounds (recount might have produced inconsistencies but, but no single standard—there are different ballots and machines between counties). Even worse, Kennedy wrote “our consideration is limited to present circumstances” (e.g. no principle, just picking Bush).
Paradox of Bush v. Gore was it sent the Court (Kennedy & O’Connor) in a liberal direction. Driven by international legal exchanges and a new generation of law clerks, Kennedy decriminalized homosexuality (Lawrence v. Texas) and deemed capital punishments against children unconstitutional (Roper v. Simmons). O’Connor rebelled on culture war issues (abortion, church-state, gay rights), and dithered on race (e.g. in UMichigan case, arbitrarily ruled affirmative action legal until 2030). In Rasul and Hamdi, Court upheld rights for Guantanamo detainees. Scalia hunted with Cheney weeks before ruling in his case.
O’Connor asked to retire, but Rehnquist died first. John G. Roberts Jr. witty and affable with tailor-made resume (Harvard Law Review, Rehnquist clerk, private practice, Solicitor General’s Office, own Supreme Court practice, DC District Judge). With support from Cheney (Roberts ruled favorably in Hamdan) and Kavanaugh, beat out Alberto Gonzalez for Rehnquist’s chief seat. For O’Conner’s seat, Bush appointed personal lawyer Harriet Miers but deemed unreliable by right wing senators, so fell back on originalist Samuel Alito.
Along with Ethiopia, Yemen claims to be the birthplace of coffee, and its seeds made their way to start booming industries in India, Brazil, French Tunisia, and Dutch Java. Although Yemen has an ideal microclimate and high elevation, it lost its position due to civil war/GWOT and focus on qat—a mild narcotic more profitable for farmers.
Coffee is a fruit. Starts with a 6-10 foot bush/tree which produces cherries twice a year. When the cherries turn red they are picked and processed (wet or dry) for the ripe green beans. These are roasted into the beans we’re familiar with.
Waves of coffee:
Mass Production (e.g. Maxwell House, Folgers) – 1970s
Reaction to Dropping Prices (e.g. Peet’s, Starbucks) – 1990s
Specialty, direct-sourced (many independent) – 2000s
Coffee Drinks:
Espresso: Concentrated
Macchiato: Espresso and foam
Latte / Cortado / Flat White: Espresso and milk
Americano: Espresso and water
Café au lait: Coffee, Milk
Mocha: Coffee, Milk, Chocolate
Housing Crisis: Toxic mix of bad incentives, greed, and asymmetric information. Speculative and uncreditworthy homebuyers were receiving increasingly dubious loans to flip houses. Ratings agencies were incentivized to downplay a clear housing bubble. Policymakers further inflated the bubble with credits for new homebuyers. Wall Street was massively leveraged, trading about $50 for every $1 in a mortgage.
Politics: TV pundit predictions are historically wrong as much as right—and political scientists aren’t much better. Often too close to the stories to be unbiased and incentivized to make bold, overconfident predictions.
Baseball: The world’s richest dataset, 100+ years of stats with relatively few problems involving complexity and nonlinearity. Silver used Bill James’ “similarity” scores to predict player development. Scouts still important to assess mental tools.
Weather: A success story, as forecast accuracy continues to improve. Complex, but more deterministic than probabilistic (e.g. quantum). Computers bad at reading pictures, but can run complex models. NWS > Commercial Forecasts > Local Meteorologists; because people notice failure to predict rain more than a false alarm, forecasters err on predicting rain (historically rains 5% of time they say 20% chance).
Earthquakes: Impossible to predict with precision, but can forecast likelihoods. Weather forecasters have a better theoretical understanding of the atmosphere than seismologists do of the earth’s crust.
Economy: Economists overconfident about their ability to predict; challenges include: (1) hard to determine cause and effect (2) economy always changing; flush with feedback loops and human/political dependencies (3) despite 45,000 published statistics, data is noisy.
Gambling: Successful gamblers are not cigar-chomping mafiosos, but wonks who view the future as speckles of probability, flickering upward and downward to every new jolt of information (which they are constantly scraping for competitive edge).
Chess/Poker: In chess, nearly innumerable number of board positions, though computer has advantage during endgame when probabilities are finite. Professional poker players aren’t worried about counting cards, but making probabilistic judgments about potential opponent hands and staying unpredictable.
Financial Bubbles: Few investors beat the stock market over the long run. High overall P/E ratios (>40:1) indicate an overvalued market, but bubbles still take time to pop (investors short-term incentives, capital restraints, shorting is risky). Free-market capitalism is the worst economic system ever invented—except for all the other ones.
Global Warming: Much skepticism is driven by self-interest or contrarianism, but some is scientific—and a diversity of models is good. Climate change is a long-term problem that may require a near-term solution but our political and cultural institutions are not well-aligned (2-year congressional cycle, quarterly business cycle).
Terrorism: 9/11 was largely a failure of imagination. Like earthquakes, a small number of incidents account for vast majority of deaths.
Recommendations:
Be adaptable, self-critical, tolerant of complexity, cautious, empirical, and multidisciplinary.
Communicate uncertainty and think probabilistically (classes should spend less time on abstract subjects like geometry and calculus and more on probability and statistics). Use Bayesian Reasoning to continually assess the impact of new information on probability:
Prior Probability of Prediction (x)
Probability of new event if Prediction true (y)
Probability of new event if Prediction false (z)
Posterior Probability of Prediction ( xy / (xy + z(1-x) ) )
Avoid overfitting, especially when you have a large number of candidate variables applied to a rarely occurring phenomenon.
Mix quantitative and qualitative data sources. Use big data/computing, but augment with human analysis.
Aggregate (independent) forecasts are more accurate than individual ones (though not necessarily better than the best individual’s forecast).
Be aware of predictions that are self-fulfilling (favorable polls build momentum) or self-canceling (e.g. Google routes cars, undermining its own traffic predictions).
Don’t mistake the unfamiliar for the improbable. And don’t ever totally discount the improbable.
Make a lot of forecasts and learn from your mistakes. Focus on your approach more than outcomes.
Positive psychology is a rapidly growing field which seeks to help people find happiness/meaning. Book draws from ancient ideas, assessed against modern research. Foundational ideas:
Divided Mind: Like a rider on an elephant, the conscious/reasoned mind has limited control of emotion/implicit. We tend to focus exclusively on the rider, but the secret of self-improvement is learning to train the elephant.
The elephant automatically judges whether we like something, the rider then fabricates reasons to explain it (“confabulation”). And once we accumulate enough evidence a position makes sense, we stop thinking.
The elephant often drives the three biggest decisions we make—what to do, where to live, whom to marry.
The elephant is biased towards negativity (feel pains more than equal pleasures). Three effective treatments: meditation, CBT, medication.
Reciprocity: The Golden Rule of society, relationships depend on it and salesmen use it against us. But we are all hypocritical, seeing faults in others but not ourselves (vast majority of American drivers say they’re above average—interestingly, Japan is the opposite).
When students are asked to read a case before being assigned a side, they are 20% more likely to reach a settlement.
The instant someone accepts some portion of the blame, anger softens enough to acknowledge the other side, and the other side usually reciprocates.
Elements of happiness:
Formula: Happiness = Biological Set Range + Conditions of Life (race, sex, age, disability, wealth, marital status, commute) + Voluntary Activities (meditation, exercise, vacation, learning skill)
External conditions do matter, but once you are freed from basic needs in the middle class, the relationship between wealth and happiness becomes smaller. People who report the greatest interest in wealth and prestige tend to be less happy.
Progress Principle: Pleasure comes more from making progress towards goals than achieving them. Why learning a new skill (repeated positive feelings) is more enduring happiness than food or sex (once satiated, feel disgust).
Adaption Principle: People’s judgment about the present state are based on whether they are better or worse than the state to which they’ve become accustomed. (Within a year, lottery winners and paraplegics have on average returned to their baseline levels of happiness).
Love/Relationships
Attachment Theory: Children—and adults—need to balance safety and exploration.
Passionate love is strong but finite (fire), companionate love is gradual but enduring (intertwining vines).
Having strong social relationships strengthens the immune system, extends life, speeds recovery from surgery, and reduces the risk of anxiety/depression (true for both extroverts and introverts).
Adversity
People need adversity, setbacks, and perhaps even trauma to reach the highest level of strength, fulfillment, and personal development. Benefits: reveals hidden abilities to overcome, reveals true friends and strengthens relationships, and focuses priorities toward the present.
Coping: Consider meditation, cognitive therapy, Prozac, cherish/build support network, and consider religious/spiritual. Journal 15 min/day: what happened, how you feel, and why you feel.
Virtues: As you get older, altruism becomes more important than achievement (caring for others is often more beneficial than receiving help). Work on your strengths, not your weaknesses.
Wisdom: Curiosity, love of learning, judgment, ingenuity, emotional intelligence, perspective
Courage: Valor, perseverance, integrity
Humanity: Kindness, loving
Justice: Citizenship, fairness, leadership
Temperance: Self-control, prudence, humility
Transcendence: Appreciation of beauty, gratitude, hope, spirituality, forgiveness, humor, zest
Spirituality
Demographic diversity (inclusion of all race, ethnicity, sex, etc) is just and important. Moral diversity (a lack of consensus on moral norms and values) can lead to lawless anarchy.
Whether or not God exists, the human mind does perceive divinity and sacredness. People go to church to achieve collective elevation through love of mankind.
The primary obstacle to spiritual advancement is the self: constant stream of trivial concerns (meditation helps).
So, how do we achieve happiness?
College is quite possibly the best environment to come face-to-face with people and ideas that are potentially offensive. Unfortunately, three false truths are spreading:
Fragility (“what doesn’t kill you makes you weaker”): Today’s students face plenty of challenges (pressure to perform, new forms of harassment, uncertain economic prospects), but they’re more likely to succeed by seeking out challenges and failing. Children are naturally “antifragile” (e.g. bones grow stronger with use) unless taught otherwise. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) proven to develop resilience, whereas “trigger warnings” and “safe zones” can extend or worsen trauma.
Emotional Reasoning (“always trust your feelings”): Kids today are taught to start with their feelings and justify them by drawing the conclusion someone has committed an act of aggression against them. Unintentional offenses should not be considered microaggressions. We should interpret other people’s statements charitably—in their best, most reasonable form, not in the worst or more offensive way possible. Education is not intended to make you comfortable, but to make you think (and while physical safety is clearly a priority; emotional discomfort is not danger).
Us v. Them (“life is a battle between good people and evil people”): MLK was attracted followers because he humanized his opponents and applied political pressure in other ways. Today, both ends of the spectrum default to demonizing an “enemy.” Social media has provided the platform for a call-out culture in which almost anything can result in public shaming—this degrades mental health and teaches kids self-censorship. Meeting speech (even hate speech) with violence is unnecessarily escalatory (e.g. 2017 Milo Riot at Berkeley).
Six reasons we got here: (1) Increased emotional polarization across the U.S. (2) Adolescent anxiety and depression has grown, particularly amongst females, Gen Z, and 2+ hours/day smart phone users. (3) Increasingly paranoid parenting. Crime rate has dropped to early 1960s levels, but fear of abductions remains. (4) Unsupervised free play has declined. Less physical and social skills makes kids less tolerant of risk and more prone to anxiety disorders. (5) Campus bureaucracy has grown. While driven by good intentions to protect students—as well as concerns about liability and providing more “amenities” than competitors—some policies harm students.
Selected Recommendations:
“Prepare the child for the road; not the road for the child.” Send kids to overnight camps in the woods. Limit their time on devices to under two hours a day. Talk to them about the risks of social media.
Understand that good and evil runs through every human being.
Practice intellectual humility (the recognition that our reasoning is so flawed and prone to bias that we can rarely be certain we are right).
Universities should pledge not to suppress ideas because some segment finds them offensive—it is up to individual members to openly and vigorously contest the ideas they oppose.
How to do Cognitive Behavioral Therapy: Write down your feelings and level of distress (1-100). Compare to the cognitive distortions (examples below), and write down those you notice. Assess evidence for and against your thought. Write down new thoughts/feelings and level of distress.
EMOTIONAL REASONING: Letting your feelings guide your interpretation of reality. “I feel depressed; therefore, my marriage is not working out.”
CATASTROPHIZING: Focusing on the worst possible outcome and seeing it as most likely. “It would be terrible if I failed.”
OVERGENERALIZING: Perceiving a global pattern of negatives on the basis of a single incident. “This generally happens to me. I seem to fail at a lot of things.”
DICHOTOMOUS THINKING (also known variously as “black-and-white thinking,” “all-or-nothing thinking,” and “binary thinking”): Viewing events or people in all-or-nothing terms. “I get rejected by everyone,” or “It was a complete waste of time.”
MIND READING: Assuming that you know what people think without having sufficient evidence of their thoughts. “He thinks I’m a loser.”
LABELING: Assigning global negative traits to yourself or others (often in the service of dichotomous thinking). “I’m undesirable,” or “He’s a rotten person.”
NEGATIVE FILTERING: You focus almost exclusively on the negatives and seldom notice the positives. “Look at all of the people who don’t like me.”
DISCOUNTING POSITIVES: Claiming that the positive things you or others do are trivial, so that you can maintain a negative judgment. “That’s what wives are supposed to do—so it doesn’t count when she’s nice to me,” or “Those successes were easy, so they don’t matter.”
BLAMING: Focusing on the other person as the source of your negative feelings; you refuse to take responsibility for changing yourself. “She’s to blame for the way I feel now,” or “My parents caused all my problems.”
Early Years: Raised by sharecroppers in three-room house (used Sears catalogs for TP) in South Alabama. The third oldest of 10 kids, preached scripture to his chickens. At 6, started cotton farming (planting/plowing, chopping, fertilizing, picking) and attending school when he could. At 14, read about Brown v. Board/Montgomery bus boycott/Rosa Parks, heard MLK on radio, saw pictures of Emmett Till (same age). Failed driver’s test, didn’t try again until 42 years old. After two appeals, became first black Alabamian to be granted conscientious objector draft status (later changed to “mentally unfit” after his criticism of Vietnam War).
Nashville: Accepted to American Baptist Theological Seminary, drawn to the “social gospel.” Earned MLK support to integrate Troy State University, but parents dissuaded. Vanderbilt Professor James Lawson taught nonviolence (read Gandhi & Thoreau; anger begets anger, beloved community). Weekly group role played contingencies (protect internal organs, hold eye contact with assailant, go limp during arrests). Sit-ins at department store lunch counters, restaurants, movie theaters slowly escalated (left, stores closed, beaten/arrested, and fumigated). Boycott of downtown ultimately accomplished integration. Faced opposition from older, conservative blacks like Thurgood Marshall. Helped found Student Non-violent Coordinating Committee (SNCC, pronounced “snick”).
Original Freedom Ride: 12 people, three days training, bus rides from DC to New Orleans. Beat at restroom in Rock Hill, South Carolina. While Lewis sat for an interview in Philadelphia, their bus was bombed with Molotov cocktail. In Birmingham, police chief said he’d take them home but dropped them somewhere in KKK country. Continued to Montgomery, where they were ambushed on arrival, served with injunctions, and denied ambulances. MLK arrived and all met in a church, where after hours of a mob outside, AL National Guard arrived to protect (and trap) those inside. Finally allowed out when US National Guard arrived.
March on Washington: Primary groups were NAACP, SCLC (King), SNCC (Lewis), CORE (Farmer). SNCC’s Jim Forman and Stokely Carmichael not fully bought into nonviolence. Found Malcolm X articulate, but disagreed on nonviolence, integration. What was originally a March for Jobs on Washington morphed into a civil Rights. JFK asked leaders not to march, though Bobby eventually became more supportive. March started on its own, so early that leaders never even saw the beginning—staged photographs. 250-500K attendees, 80% black. His speech originally deemed too combative (revolution, patience fails, reference to Sherman’s March to sea), so had to compromise on language moments before.
Birmingham/Mississippi: After George Wallace election, leadership decided to take on Alabama. MLK letter from Birmingham Jail called on silent whites to do their part. Dogs/hoses in Birmingham pushed Kennedy to introduce Civil Rights Act of 1964; 16th St Church bombing killed four girls. In Mississippi, held mock black elections to garner attention. Well-meaning, well-educated white students would come to help but sometimes stole limelight from blacks who had been doing the hard work. To avoid condescension to poor blacks, SNCC wore white t-shirts with overalls. Eventually moved SNCC HQ from Atlanta to Greenwood, MS. KKK ran amok, hundreds of beatings, shootings, bombings. FBI continuously investigating for communist ties.
Selma: Spent two months in Africa–both refreshing and broadening. But internal fissures left SNCC on the brink of collapse; Lewis tried to refocus on Selma, AL. Malcolm X visited, just before his assassination by Black Muslims in Harlem. At a night march, troopers turned out street lights and killed Jimmie Lee Jackson. James Bevel had original idea to carry casket to Montgomery. SNCC opposed but Lewis participated. In first march (“Bloody Sunday”), 80 wounded as troopers stopped at bridge and pursued over a mile back to church. In negotiations, MLK agreed to turn back second march at the bridge as a symbolic win, infuriating many. Finally received court injunction and US National Guard protection for third march of 3,200 people. Lewis walked all 54 miles to Montgomery but slept each night in Selma to treat fractured skull. Culminated in LBJ signing the 1965 Voting Rights Act.
After: Selma marked the end of nonviolence in SNCC and CORE, as the movement moved from combatting segregation to dealing with racism (subtler and more challenging). Black Panther party originally named after Clark College Atlanta mascot. Carmichael forced Lewis out as chairman as SNCC shifted toward Black Nationalism and expanded work to northern city ghettos. Lewis spoke out against Vietnam, where as much as 60% of frontline troops were black. Marion Berry and others entered politics. Was campaigning with Bobby Kennedy when found out MLK killed; ensuing riots killed 46 (41 blacks) and caused $50M in property damage. Devastated when Kennedy died. After stints in community organizing, was elected to Atlanta city council, then Congress in 1986 (against old friend Julian Bond).
Quotes:
“What tends to be forgotten among the dramatic photographs and news accounts of the moments of violence that erupted during so many demonstrations…were the days and days of uneventful protest that took place outside the courtrooms and jails… [Picketing and lining up sunrise to sundown, day after day in heat or cold took as much if not more persistence than facing billy clubs of deputies].”
“Rioting is not a movement. It is not an act of civil disobedience…It is simply an explosion of emotion. That’s all. There’s nothing constructive about it. It is only destructive.”
Standard Speech Flow:
Invocation of God (both beginning & end)
Humility, Gratitude to Predecessor (but also reiterate electoral mandate)
Historical Recap (reverence for Constitution/peaceful transfer of power)
Until 1900s, nearly all exult limited government, small standing army, no entangling alliances
Current Challenges (party changes characterized as a historic inflection point)
Principles and/or Policies. Common topics (& first to raise):
Taxes, Religion, Press, Native Americans (Jefferson)
Foreign Policy, Defense (Madison)
Expansionism (Polk)
Slavery (Van Buren)
Civil Service, Civil Rights/Suffrage (Garfield)
Immigration (Harrison)
Arms Control (Eisenhower)
Aid, Science (Kennedy)
Drugs (Bush 41)
Quotes:
“If national pride is ever justifiable or excusable it is when it springs, not from power or riches, grandeur or glory, but from conviction of national innocence, information and benevolence.” (Adams)
“[Preserve] our Constitution from its natural enemies, the spirit of sophistry, the spirit of party, the spirit of intrigue, the profligacy of corruption, and the pestilence of foreign influence.” (Adams)
“Every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle. We have called by different names brethren of the same principle. We are all Republicans, we are all Federalists.” (Jefferson, 1801)
“Undeviating adherence to the principles on which we set out can carry us prosperously onward through the conflicts of circumstances and vicissitudes inseparable from the lapse of years.” (Van Buren)
“The institutions under which we live, my countrymen, secure each person in the perfect enjoyment of their rights.” (Tyler)
“To preserve [the Union] the compromises which alone enabled our fathers to form a common constitution for the government and protection of so many States and distinct communities, of such diversified habits, interests, and domestic institutions, must be sacredly and religiously observed.” (Polk)
“We are not enemies, but friends…the mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.” (Lincoln, 1861)
“Fondly we do hope, fervently do we pray, that this mighty scourge of war may speedily pass away…. With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation’s wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.” (Lincoln, 1865)
“He serves his party best who serves his country best.” (Hayes)
“To violate the freedom and sanctities of the suffrage is more than an evil. It is a crime which, if persisted in, will destroy the Government itself.” (Garfield).
“Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.” (FDR, 1933)
“Happiness lies not in the mere possession of money; it lies in the joy of achievement, in the thrill of creative effort.” (FDR, 1933).
“The only way to have a friend is to be one.” (FDR, 1945)
“Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty.” (Kennedy)
“Civility is not a sign of weakness, and sincerity is always subject to proof. Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate.” (Kennedy)
“Ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your county.” (Kennedy)
“We have found ourselves rich in goods, but ragged in spirit; reaching with magnificent precision for the moon, but falling into raucous discord on earth.” (Nixon, 1969)
“There is only one way safely and legitimately to reduce the cost of national security, and that is to reduce the need for it.” (Reagan, 1985)
“There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right with America.” (Clinton, 1993)
“The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works.” (Obama, 2009).
“A nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous.” (Obama, 2009).
“Our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example….We will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.” (Obama, 2009).
“While truths may be self-evident, they’ve never been self-executing; while freedom is a gift from God, it muse secured by His people here on Earth.” (Obama, 2013).
In WWII, generals were expected to fail in combat and relief from command was not seen as disgraceful. Since then, relief is viewed as a failure of the system. Today, civilian leaders still relieve top generals, but the Army does not enforce accountability within its own ranks.
WWII: Army goes from untested institution to proven global force.
George C. Marshall: FDR rewarded his candor and bluntness, which he demanded from his subordinates. Insisted on distance from political leaders (may have destroyed general → president norm). Forced out >600 officers before the US joined WWII, but produced military effectiveness.
Dwight Eisenhower: Tutored by Marshall, had integrity, logistical/planning expertise, and inspired loyalty. Demanded strong leaders but did not micromanage. Diplomatic handling of egotistical UK Gen Montgomery may be his greatest wartime contribution.
George Patton: A man of unusual flaws (castigating injured soldiers as cowards, shot out ahead of orders) and exceptional strengths (military pursuit, hounding a retreating enemy).
Mark Clark: Never bad enough to relieve or good enough to admire. His concern for publicity hindered his ability to sense battlefield developments.
“Terrible Terry” Allen: Old Army tough, rumpled, hard-driving, hard-drinking cavalryman. Marshall liked, as surprised enemy with night attacks; Bradley/Eisenhower saw as non-team player.
Douglas MacArthur: Demonstrated how feeling irreplaceable damages civil-military discourse. Marshall kept around/awarded MoH for political reasons despite abandoning Philippines.
Korean War: Army immediately deteriorated following WWII, focused on European theater.
William Dean: Instead of organizing a strategic retreat, led bazooka team after individual targets and wound up wandering the hills lost for 35 days until being captured and telling his captors “Not all American generals are this dumb—you just happened to catch the dumbest.”
MacArthur: Slow to grasp the situation, imposed a divided command structure, concocted unnecessarily complex amphibious and airborne assaults, split his forces, assigned cronies to combat commands, and remained in Tokyo for duration. Wrongly believed bomb would beat China. Continued policy statements led to firing, which was supported by CJCS.
Don Faith / O.P. Smith: At Chosin, Army charged north blindly, whereas the combat experienced USMC Gen Smith made three critical decisions before fighting started: (1) consolidated forces (2) built two airstrips (3) put himself at the key point of the fighting. In a daring raid to rescue Faith’s men, Smith’s men built combat knowledge (hold fire as long as possible to conceal position, throw some bullets in the fire as you retreat so it sounds like the position is still contested).
Matthew Ridgeway: Turned war around. Defused MacArthur in Tokyo, studied the terrain in a low-flying B-17, visited ROK president, replaced incompetent commanders.
Vietnam War: An opportunity to prove continued relevance in nuclear era, nearly destroyed the US Army.
Maxwell Taylor: Politicized officer who made his relationship to JFK his basis of power, bears the most responsibility for Vietnam.
William Westmoreland: Saw war as an exercise in management; focused on attrition, body count, and search and destroy. Ignored French lessons and independent reports. Even more challenged on dealing with civilian oversight. 1965 was a year of emergency. 1967 the US took the offensive. Tet 1968 was strategic triumph but cost American center of gravity (US support). Instead relief waited for a rotation; the only general removed was the topmost one, reassigned for political reasons by the defense secretary. My Lai was a low point (massacred 500 and covered up). Johnson politicized generals by demanding loyalty and refused to activate reserve.
William DePuy: Like Allen, brought old attitudes to new war. Misapplied WWII focus on firepower, and swift relief of failing officers was unwelcome in 1960s Army.
Creighton Abrams: Shifted toward protecting population centers, but Nixon pushed withdrawal ASAP. Army was probably too weak to win the war anyway: almost half enlisted men had tried heroine or opium and fragging (murder of officers) grew common. After the war, Abrams abandoned counterinsurgency training, but DePuy rejuvenated TRADOC. Developed new weapons (Abrams tank, Bradley Fighting Vehicle, Patriot IAMD, Apache, Blackhawk). Created Delta Force.
Iraq: Though smaller, the 1991 Army was better trained, better equipped, and better led at the tactical and operational (not strategic) levels. Bureaucracy grew and thinking was outsourced to FFRDCs.
Colin Powell: Easy-going persona, intense work ethic, Washington-prowess, and ability to locate good mentors resembled Eisenhower. Was initially skeptical of air-led campaign, but applied Weinberger doctrine over overwhelming force for limited objectives.
Norma Schwarzkopf: Failed to understand the political/strategic dimensions of the war, including an Iraqi attempt to bring Israel into the war (alienating the US’ Arab allies). Didn’t consult with his superiors before sitting down to parley with the Iraqis to discuss terms of peace and allowed continued helicopter flights.
Afghanistan and Iraq: The force was tactically proficient (fit and well-trained) but strategically inept. Generals failed to prepare for irregular warfare, develop war plans which achieved policy aims, and provide candid advice to leaders.
Tommy Franks: An arrogant tactician who bungled two wars in three years. Under pressure from Rumsfeld to limit troops, declined to seal off escape routes at Tora Bora and Operation Anaconda. In Iraq, his grand strategy never thought past the attack and he retired shortly after the fall of Baghdad to make speeches and write a memoir.
Ricardo Sanchez: Mediocre officer placed in an impossible situation. He descended into the weeds, was unwilling to adapt, and let Abu Ghraib abuses happen under his command.
George Casey: Started a COIN academy north of Baghdad to help stave off defeat, but still failed to understand who quickly the situation was deteriorating.
David Petraeus: Like Ridgeway, filled a strategic void by (1) bringing in fresh thinkers like Odierno, Dubik, Dempsey, and Mattis (2) working with Ambassador Ryan Crocker to repair civil-military relations and (3) making reducing Iraqi civilian casualties his primary objective.
Afghanistan: Ten commanders in ten years (2003-13).
Recommendations: Improve civil-military relations by keeping distance, being candid, and collaborating in all phases of the war. Reward adaptive and independently minded military leaders—especially in an era of strategic uncertainty. Reliefs should be common and transparent (promotion boards are top secret)—the first six months could even be probationary. Enact 360-degree evaluations and provide more training on how to think rather than what to think.
History: Speech innate but grew in sophistication about 30K years ago, early words onomatopoeias. All languages change (except Icelandic). Latin evolved into the Romance languages (French, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Romanian). Germanic languages developed into Scandinavian, English, German and Dutch. Anglo-Saxon English was treated as the inadequate tongue of peasants, and 85% of its words died out from Danes (Vikings) and Norman (French) conquests. Shakespeare coined some 2,000 words and gave us countless phrases (in a pickle, fast and loose, into thin air). Today there are around 2,700 active languages (1,600 in India alone). English is the global language of business, science, education, politics, and pop music. There are more English students in China than people in the United States. English has three advantages:
Rich vocabulary: twice as many words in common use (200K) than French.
Flexibility: word ordering, no genders
Simplicity: despite idiosyncrasies, fewer consonant clusters and tonal variations
Pronunciation: The absence of a central authority for English for three centuries meant dialects multiplied. English possesses more sounds than any other language (12 vowels, 9 diphthongs, 23 consonants). We tend to compress phrases (goodbye was God-be-with-you, hello was possibly whole-be-thou, fortnight was 14 nights). Although much larger, US has less linguistic variation than the UK because of continuous movement of people, mingling of diverse backgrounds, and a desire for a common national identity. Some 4,000 words are used differently in the UK than US.
Words/Grammar: English grammar is confusing because it’s largely based on Latin, a language it has little in common with. A perennial argument among lexicographers is whether dictionaries should be prescriptive or descriptive. English has always been fluid and democratic in which meanings shift and change according to use. Samuel Johnson published the first great dictionary in 1755, followed by Noah Webster in the early 1800s. The two words with the most flexibility are “Okay” and “F**k.”
Other: Close to 10% of Japanese words are English (e.g. erebata—elevator, nekutai—necktie). America got its name from Amerigo Vespucci, a semi obscure Italian navigator who made four trips to the New World but never saw North America. A mapmaker mistakenly used his name and it caught on before he could correct it. Kennedy means “ugly head” in Gaelic. Attempts to make English more accessible include Basic English (850 words which can describe most things) and Sea Speak (which uses consistent phrasing to prevent confusion). English is magnificent for wordplay, including puns, tongue-twisters, anagrams, riddles, cryptograms, palindromes, clerihews, rebuses, crossword puzzles, and spelling bees.
Absence of Trust: be human, focus on vulnerability and authenticity (Go first)
Fear of Conflict: Boldly debate issues, identify where perspectives don’t align (Mine for conflict)
Lack of Commitment: Unite around common purpose (Force clarity/closure)
Avoidance of Accountability: Clarify roles and responsibilities, agree on consequences (Confront difficult issues)
Inattention to Results: Feedback culture with measurable results (Focus on collective outcomes)
Humorous Memoir:
Entered whistling competition, won national “pun” competition, became Civil War reenactor, frequented Star Wars conventions.
Appeared on Jeopardy at age 18, wrote “that dude” for final Jeopardy question about Dan Brown. “Some say you should study, others say you can’t. I split the difference by not studying and feeling vaguely guilty about it.”
Father was Tom Petri, long-time Republican Senator from Wisconsin. “The best place to be in a parade is in front of the horses and behind the band.” On 9/11, father picked her up and said “If it’s the end of the world, we might as well have lunch.”
“College is basically a big fish tank. You don’t see fish breaking up. Where would they go? How would they avoid each other around the plastic shipwreck? They eat each other instead.”
As Robin Williams liked to say, “Episcopalian is Catholic Lite–all the pageantry, none of the guilt.”
A cat is a kitten until its first birthday. Very young kittens are extremely fragile; be prepared for circumstances in which you cannot save its life. Most shelters are not-for-profit, but charge adoption fees to cover the cost of vetting the animals and running the facility. Ideally kittens stay with their mothers 12-16 weeks, but adoption is common after 6-8 weeks. Baby teeth start to fall out at 12 weeks. Kittens spend an hour or more each day in play. Keep in one small room for the first day after adoption. Keep away from electrical cords, plants (tulips, azaleas), curtain cords, medicine, and appliances. Cats dislike citrus scents, tin foil.
Kittens should never go longer than 12-18 hours without eating. Canned foods smell good and are nutritious, but must be refrigerated after 30 minutes, cause softer stools, and can cause dental problems. Tuna can be addictive and lead to steatitis. Treats are best used sparingly for training.
Shedding depends not on temperature but exposure to light. Grooming helps cats destress (why they sometimes break into it when they’re scared). Pure petroleum jelly and fiber can help with hairballs. Clip toenails and brush teeth every couple weeks; bathe every couple months.
You may need to bring a recent stool to the vet; renew rabies vaccine yearly. Spaying (female) / neutering (male) reduce territorial spraying (urinating). Declawing is a cosmetic procedure that benefits the owner but not the cat. Grabbing a cat by the “scruff” can help keep her still. Rubbing head and body against things is called bunting. Kneading comes from rhythmically pressing their mother’s breasts to stimulate milk.
Cats can hear mouse squeaking well above human ranges; and kill prey by biting the back of their neck. They see greens and blues best, and well in dim lighting. Cats have elastic bodies because their spines have five more vertebrae that are held together with muscles instead of ligaments. They can jump five times their height, run 31 mph, and have an incredible sense of balance. Cats spend 2/3 of their life asleep.
Training: Prompt interruption, replace the target with a legal one, and bribe her to do the right thing. Kitten memories last about 60 seconds. Do a couple carrier practice runs (not to the vet) to avoid bad association. Use the command “come” whenever you fill his bowl or give treat. Can also try “sit.” Don’t punish, but try stern “no”, PSST, clapping, or loud shaking. Best to ignore whining. Single-cat households have the fewest behavioral problems.
The construction of Pennsylvania’s “Main Line” canal to compete with the Erie Canal eventually grew Johnstown—east of Pittsburgh—into the liveliest steel center in the country. The South Fork dam was completed in 1852, creating Lake Conemaugh 450ft above and 15 miles NE of Johnstown. Businessmen like Andrew Carnegie and Henry Clay Frick enjoyed the tranquility of the Alleghenies and created the South Fork Fishing and Hunting Club. Earth dams had been accepted for centuries, but are subject to rapid erosion if water escapes over the top. It received minimal rework after its first break in 1862, and was lowered to provide room for a road.
The evening before May 31, 1889, a heavy downpour saturated the deforested terrain. Club workers tried to heighten the dam and one considered cutting a side spillway to drain water through a stronger part of the dam—but decided against it. A handful of telegraphs finally reached Johnstown at 3:15pm, but the only warning for most was a conductor who held down his whistle just before the flood arrived at 4:07pm. It took about 30 minutes for the Lake to empty, and it began charging into the valley about 40 feet high and 15-40mph (comparable to Niagara Falls). The flood was led by a roar, gray mist, powerful wind, and massive accumulated debris. The friction of the terrain caused the bottom of the wave to move slower than the top, causing it to roll over itself while pressing forward, causing a violent downward smashing.
The devastation of the city took only ten minutes. Waves went through the city, crashed against the incline on the far side, and back through. Massive debris caught against the stone bridge caught fire, throwing victims into a fiery death. Survivors either luckily rode out a wave (seeing neighbors fly by them), or took shelter in the buildings behind the Methodist church, which held strong. The horrific night after the flood was lit only by eerie glow of fires and the clocktower of the Lutheran church which continued ringing every hour. Most assumed it was the judgement day. About 2,200 people were killed (11% of population), many buried deep in the mud.
The morning after, there were about 27,000 in the valley with no food or water. The “Great Calamity” dominated front page news for weeks, the biggest news story since the death of Abraham Lincoln. Embellished accounts described rivers dammed with dead bodies; Pittsburgh urged residents to boil water for fear of disease (there were 215 cases of typhoid). But the attention raised $3.7M (plus food/supply donations), the greatest outpouring of popular charity to date. The Army set up white tents to help run distribution. After serving as nurse in the Civil War, Clara Barton founded the US branch of Red Cross in 1881 and Johnstown was her first major disaster; working nearly day and night for five months straight. There was never any question they intended to rebuild.
Tapping into growing disdain with the rich business magnate class, ire turned quickly to the club at South Fork. An engineering report two weeks after the flood said the dam’s engineering was sound, but hadn’t been inspected and failed due to the central sag in the crest, obstruction of the spillway, and absence of outlet pipes at the base. A series of lawsuits failed to prove negligence or yield damages (few club members knew of the structural integrity of the dam). Ultimately, the key problem was the absence of outlet pipes which would’ve allowed the club to control the height of the Lake.
Truman could evacuate by land/air (to Camp David) or sea (Williamsburg yacht). Badly needed WH renovations (Margaret’s piano fell through floor) were a perfect cover to install a bomb shelter. Early planning focused on civilians, building a civil defense college in Olney, distributing dog tags to schoolchildren, and recommending parents tattoo children’s blood type under their arm—not on it in case it was blown off.
Eisenhower created the interstate highway system, ensuring bridges were 16 feet high to accommodate the ICBM movement. Civil defense knowledge was part of the 1956 Miss America beauty pageant, 380K volunteers joined a civilian ground observer corps, and high schoolers learned to use radiology monitoring kits. USPS would collect the dead, Interior would provide fuel/electricity, Labor would implement a salary and wage stabilization system, National Park Service would run refugee camps, Agriculture would distribute rationed food, DoJ would register foreign aliens to identify those considered subversive. The ‘football’ got its nickname because the first Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) war plan was code-named DROPKICK.
Kennedy updated continuity of government (COG) plans for the ICBM age (from 5hr warning to 5min). Kennedy replaced MAD (SIOP proposed dropping 2,600 bombs) with flexible response (five escalating SIOPs would focus on “counterforce” scenarios). Pacific high altitude nuclear test knocked out streetlights in Oahu, revealing EMP effect. Moved nuclear testing from the Pacific to Nevada. In Cuban Missile Crisis, people activated community shelters, though stoked fear of battling neighbors and few could sustain the two weeks required to minimize radiation exposure. The Washington National Cathedral dean ordered its basement flooded to secure emergency drinking water. The Crisis escalated the arms race but also prompted establishment of direct communications (MOLINK). It also proved the futility of civil defense and focused planners on COG.
From 1962 to 71, the Navy had two “floating White House” ships decked out in communications (Bob Woodward began his career aboard one). Johnson/McNamara discontinued alert bomber flights due to Vietnam cost pressures and three 1960s accidents which saw hydrogen bombs disappear in the ocean, Greenland, and the Spanish countryside.
Nixon embraced “Madman Theory,” attempting to increase USSR uncertainty. Both superpowers moved away from targeting command posts for fear there wouldn’t be anyone left to “turn nuclear war off.” Stronger weapons meant that even bunkers were unlikely to survive an attack, so created fleet of aircraft command centers. Public warnings moved from sirens to buzzers to radio and TV. Nixon drafted unsigned Executive Orders to censor publications and intern aliens in emergencies.
Carter established the Dept Energy which inherited control of the nuclear arsenal and FEMA to unite disaster planning. He also moved MOLINK to satellite downlinked through Fort Detrick. A couple close calls: Nov 1979 someone inserted a training tape into the NORAD’s real computers, simulating a massive attack; June 1980 a faulty computer chip suggested 2,200 ICBMs were on the way.
When Reagan was shot, an airborne VP Bush lacked secure comms so SecState Haig incorrectly claimed authority over SecDef Weinberger. Exacerbated by four Soviet missile subs off the east coast. Ted Turner prepared a video to air in the final moments of life on earth. SDI helped bankrupt USSR and helped transform Reagan’s image to peacemaker. Two more close calls: Sept 1983 Soviet satellite registered sun reflecting off cloud as US missile launch but Soviet Lt. Col. Petrov deescalated; Nov 1983 ABLE ARCHER fully convinced USSR strike was imminent. Project 908 enlisted the FBI to identify large warehouses outside blast zones and assess threats (e.g. background checks, immigrant populations).
On 9/11, Air Force One took off “almost vertically,” zigzagging to 45Kft where Bush watched updates on CNN. Cheney was whisked into the PEOC (WH bunker) and activated COG but Hastert and Byrd were unreachable until 11am (unsure of what to do, Byrd went home). Powell was in Peru, O’Neill was in Japan, Greenspan was in Europe. Cheney authorized taking out hijacked planes and told Rumsfeld a couple had already been shot down. Other false reports: explosion at Lincoln Memorial, explosion at Capitol Hill, bombing at State Department. Rumsfeld was lost when he chose to go investigate the Pentagon crash site. PEOC ran low on oxygen and non-essentials were asked to leave. Congressional leadership was evacuated to Greenbrier, but felt useless so returned to DC. Bush refueled in Barksdale and stopped in Offutt before returning to Andrews with fighter escorts. If Flight 93 had reached the Capitol it would’ve killed hundreds of members. For an April 2000 exercise called POSITIVE FORCE, Joint Staff officers rejected a scenario that involved terrorists crashing a plan into the Pentagon as “too unrealistic.”
After the chaos of 9/11, most COG plans emphasized devolving power to existing staff outside the capital. USG also launched efforts to improve overloaded cell networks. Through its inaction, Congress (and the Supreme Court) have essentially embraced an executive dictatorship in a doomsday scenario. SIOPs replaced by OPLAN 8010, offering a collection of retaliatory choices tailored to a more complex threat environment. The modern ‘football’ is a 45lb rugged aluminum briefcase full of authentication codes, strike options, and legal documents. Today, the USG has over 100 hidden facilities available within an hour of DC that could activate in an emergency; recent projects include WH North Lawn and Navy East Potomac Park. A core component is the National Airborne Operations Center (NAOC).
Key facilities:
Raven Rock: Built 1948 across the PA line from Camp David to military/overseas command. Has grown since 9/11.
Mount Weather: Built 1949 north of Middleburg, VA to host domestic command. Revealed following a 1974 plane crash.
Greenbrier: Expanded 1958 in WV to house Congress, complete with sleeping and press briefing arrangements. Remained secret until 1992; opened for public tours in 1995.
NORAD: Built 1962 in Cheyenne Mountain, CO. Never a secret.
Other: Grove Park Inn (Supreme Court), Mount Pony (Fed Reserve), Pax River (DoD), Martinsburg, WV (DoJ), Quantico (FBI), Warrenton (Treasury, CIA), Harper’s Ferry (Interior), Biltmore (Nat’l Gallery of Art), Washington & Lee (Archives).
Line of Succession: The US is lucky to have narrowly avoided constitutional crises—16 times for a combined 38 years the US had been without a VP. While the founders almost certainly intended VP to only be acting until an election was called, Tyler’s assumption of power wasn’t challenged and became a precedent for the next 120 years. In 1947, on Truman’s advice Congress established the modern succession plan (~P, VP, Speaker, Senate President, Cabinet). In 1965 Congress, passed the 25th Amendment indoctrinating the Tyler precedent, allowing P to nominate a VP, and delineating process for VP earning majority to cabinet to say P incapacitated. If it hadn’t passed before Watergate, Nixon could not have appointed Ford and the presidency would have been vacant until the 1976 election.
Presidential Tidbits: Teddy Roosevelt became the first President to leave the US in 1906. As late as the 1910s passersby could enter the White House and sit at the President’s desk if he was absent (it was closed in WWII). The only WWII damage to DC was a 1942 accident in which an antiaircraft gun hit the Lincoln memorial, damaging the word “Wisconsin.” Truman redesigned the presidential flag so the eagle’s head looks toward the olive branch rather than the arrows of war. Eisenhower didn’t even put on his own underwear—his valet dressed him head to toe. Air Force One carries five extra parachutes in case panicky officials deploy them in the cabin. The Naval Observatory was built for the VP in 1974.
Chronicles the current cadre of billionaires pioneering commercial space exploration.
Jeff Bezos: Grandfather owned Texas ranch. Obsessed with space since five, started Blue Origin in total secrecy as the tortoise (“step by step, ferociously”). Also funded/joined stormy mission to recover Apollo 11’s F-1 engines from the ocean floor.
Elon Musk: Grandfather was amateur pilot. Founded SpaceX as the hare (“plow through the line”) to aggressively take on ULA and traditional industry. Falcon rockets eventually won NASA’s respect. Lofty ambitions to colonize Mars (Bezos focused on moon first). Believes sabotage may have resulted in explosion on launch pad.
Richard Branson: While not an engineer, a brash leader from family of explorers. Virgin Galactic offering space tourism using SpaceShipTwo dropped from Scaled Composites White Knight Two plane (v. Bezos using rockets). Became more conservative after 2014 crash killed pilot.
Paul Allen: Bankrolled SpaceShipOne, the first private vehicle to reach space in 2003 (X Prize), in partnership with Burt Rutan’s Scaled Composites, before handing it off to Branson.
Each company has had successes and failures—Blue Origin first to land full rocket, but SpaceX first to orbit. Went from united against military-industrial complex to bitter rivals themselves (Bezos and Musk barely speak). Bezos and Musk battled for the Cape Canaveral launch pad and each have property in West Texas. Bezos considered radical ideas to reach orbit (bullwhips, lasers, cannons, railguns).
Swordfishing: Swordfish are vicious animals, using their swords to slash their prey and sometimes fisherman on deck. Boats can have a mainline up to 40 miles long, pulling in 10-20 fish on a good day. They now use GPS, electronic fish finders, and temperature depth gauges. They’re out 2-3 months and rarely in port more than a week at a time to gear up and make repairs. The fisherman sleep on the trips in/out, working 20 hours/day for three weeks on station and cramming as much life as possible into their time at port. The captain makes about $20K per trip, others around $5K. More people are killed on fishing boats, per capita, than any other job in the US. Although people say, “he died doing what he loved,” most men take to it because they need money fast. Gloucester, MA’s pub, the Crow’s Nest had the feel of an orphanage, sometimes hosting guests upstairs for years.
Storms: A network of sensor-filled balloons feed complex numerical models and analysts at the National Meteorological Center in MD. Wind is simply air rushing from high pressure to low pressure. The maximum theoretical height for wind-driven waves is 198ft, but breaking waves are much more dangerous. At shore, waves break because underwater turbulence drags on the bottom; in open ocean, wind builds the waves up so fast the distance between the crests can’t keep up and they collapse under their own mass.
Sinking: In violent storms, water and air become indistinguishable. Whitewater means you’re near the surface; greenwater you’re in a wave; blackwater you’re a submarine. If the fish/ice shift, it throws off the center of gravity. If the breather pipes get stuffed, the engine dies. If the windows explode, a bulkhead can fail (crews desperately use plywood to repair). If water makes it to the engine room, it can electrocute anyone in the water. Down flooding is the catastrophic influx of ocean water into the hold.
Andrea Gail: The Andrea Gail and six passengers was halfway home in October 1991 when Hurricane Grace combined with a low pressure system and Canadian high pressure system to generate the “Perfect Storm.” The transition from crisis to catastrophe happens in about 60 seconds. Inexplicably, the EPIRB (automatically signals mayday to Coast Guard) was turned off. In 52-degree water, men can last about 4 hours. But the ship was hit in the middle of the night well outside helicopter range. The instinct not to breathe underwater is so strong it overcomes the agony of running out of air, so a drowning person won’t inhale until the buildup of CO2 triggers an involuntary breath on the verge of losing consciousness. At this break point, usually after about 87 seconds, water floods the lungs and ends transfer of oxygen to the blood. The crew’s widows tried to sue the boat owner, but it was impossible to improve its maintenance was more negligent than any other boat so they settled out of court.
Rescue Efforts: An Air National Guard helicopter seeking to rescue a different boat was hit with such powerful winds it was unable to refuel from its C-130 transport and was forced to ditch. Four of five airmen onboard survived a dramatic nighttime rescue from a nearby ship. The ship comes in upwind because large objects drift faster than small ones.
BLUF: Polarization is the logical outcome of a complex system of incentives, technologies, identities, and political institutions. Worse, it is a feedback loop: political institutions and actors (leaders, journalists) are (rationally) behaving in more polarized ways to appeal to a more polarized public—and further polarizing the public. Many elements:
Party Sorting: 1965 Civil Rights Act ended the Dixiecrats, allowing parties to sort themselves ideologically, such that there were no longer any Democrats more conservative than Republicans or vice versa. Split ballots dropped from around 46% to 3%. Party membership divided over race, religion, and geography (non-white Democratic voters grew from around 6% to 43%). Each party reacts to the other, further polarizing (e.g. Hispanics joined Democrats, so Obama protected Dreamers, so Trump exploited white anger and pushed anti-immigrant policies, offending Democrats and pushing them toward even more protection).
Demographic Shifts: For 200 years, whites represented a politically, economically, and culturally dominant majority. The simplest way to activate someone’s identity is to tell them they don’t deserve what they have and threaten to take it away. Some outcomes are truly zero-sum (more minority reps means fewer white reps). Romney 2012 unsuccessfully ran on class; Trump 2016 successfully exploited white identity (much more than economic anxiety, BTW).
Political Identity Expansion: Our political identities have now become mega-identities (Democrats are viewed as “tax-hiking, government-expanding, latte-drinking, sushi-earing, Volvo-driving, NYT-reading…”). Republicans believed 38% of Democrats were LGBTQ (actually 6%). Once you activate one identity, it activates all. Cultural identities once apolitical (e.g. NFL) are now politicized.
Post-Persuasion Elections: Humans inherently organize into groups of ‘us’ and ‘them’—even when it doesn’t serve their self-interest. Competition (e.g. elections) generate obsession with winning, resulting in rivalry and anger. Elections no longer about persuasion (winning over swing voters, which are only around 7%), now about motivation (getting your side to turn out). And politicians know the strongest motivator is generating animosity toward a rival.
Complex Motivations: Evolutionarily, thinking in groups improved decisions. But people increasingly assume if they studied the issues their positions would match their party’s platforms. And even for those who do study, humans stake out positions for reasons other than seeking truth—like winning an argument or increasing standing (e.g. why would Sean Hannity support climate change if it would cost his job, friends, identity). Being “smarter” can actually impair reasoning because you’re more readily able to develop specious arguments (e.g. 9/11 truthers are well-informed about the various melting points of steel.) (Study found people who were better at math performed poorer on brainteasers where the answer betrayed their political instincts). Partisanship has a way of short-circuiting intelligence.
Profit-Driven Media: Media consumers have endless choice over how they spend their time, so political media is focused on generating interest in political news. The most effective strategy to do this in a digital environment is to target your news at a core audience who is rooting for a side. Most likely pieces to go viral are identity (e.g. “10 signs you’re XYZ”) or outrage (Trump occupies over 50% of cable news). Opinion journalism is giving way to identity journalism—and identities are harder to change than opinions. Exposure to rivals’ news only further radicalizes.
Weak Political Parties: Partisanship is too strong and parties are too weak to block extremist candidates (Trump, Sanders). Institutional donors are corrupting (they want something), small donors are polarizing. Identity politics drives donations to national candidates who fight battles on the main stage rather than state/local candidates, even though they can provide more to donors. Voting is increasingly about winning, not policy.
Undemocratic Institutions: Presidential systems usually fail because divided government risks a constitutional crisis of legitimacy. But institutions will make divided government the norm: Republicans maintain strong advantage in the Senate while Democrats have won 6/7 Presidential popular votes.
Politicization of the Supreme Court: Parties have developed more rigorous methods of sourcing Supreme Court nominees to ensure they remain ideologically consistent, raising the stakes of nominations and leading to more partisan cases/hearings (e.g. McConnell breaking precedent to block Garland). Compromise is harder because the parties are farther apart.
Nationalized Politics: Where legislators once asked, “How will this bill affect my district?” they now ask “Is my party for this bill?” (e.g. party-line ACA votes had no correlation to district uninsured rates). Though corrupting, earmarks actually made compromise feasible (e.g. NE Sen. Ben Nelson’s ACA vote).
Governing Conflicts with Campaigning: From 1865 to 1984, Congress typically had lopsided majorities. When one party is perpetually dominant, it has incentive to cooperate as that’s its only realistic shot at wielding influence. Today, competitive minorities are incentivized to sabotage the governing party to take power (e.g. McConnell against Obama). Norms against using the filibuster and debt ceiling for partisan goals have eroded.
Note: Democrats have proven more resilient to the polarizing trends because they are a diverse coalition which consumes more diverse media (CNN has about 15% of liberal market share; Fox News owns 47% of the conservative market). Undemocratic institutions (electoral college, Senate) allow Republicans to run well-right of the median voter. Knowing their coalition is aging out has injected alarmist rhetoric and urgency to their strategy, embodied by their support for the ruthless street fighter Trump.
Recommendations:
Bombproofing: Eliminate the debt ceiling. Revamp budgetary process to make more automatic, thus reducing gridlock and continuing resolutions.
Democratizing: Eliminate electoral college. House should adopt multi-member districts with ranked-choice voting. Eliminate the filibuster. Give Washington DC and Puerto Rico congressional representation.
Balancing: Lower the stakes of battle by guaranteeing all parties some power. Make Supreme Court 15 justices, each party appoints five and those ten must unanimously appoint the remaining five. Make easier for minority to bring full bills to the floor.
Everyone: We should all be mindful of ways politicians manipulate us by considering what identity content invokes. Pay more attention to local politics, where our voices are louder.
In late 1980s, 49ers coach Bill Walsh designed a revolutionary “West-Coast” offense around short passes/timing routes from Joe Montana/Steve Young. Consistently battled Bill Parcells’ defensive-minded Giants, with Lawrence Taylor terrorizing quarterbacks from their “blind side.” The left tackle became among the most important players, and by the early 1990s several held contracts larger than their own quarterbacks. Ideal body type was wide, long arms, big hands, and quick feet.
Michael Oher’s (pronounced “Oar”) mother had 10 kids in 15 years to at least 5 fathers and was addicted to crack cocaine. After bouncing around foster homes, Oher ran back to his mother and hid from child protective services. In his first 9 years of school he was enrolled in 11 schools, including 18 months where he was not in school. Eventually taken by family friend Big Tony, who wanted his own son Steven to try out for Greenbriar Christian High School and brought Oher as well. After initial rejection, was let in under close supervision, and promptly adopted by Sean and Leigh Anne Tuohy (wealthy family owning over 85 fast food restaurants). [Sean is childhood friend of author Lewis]
He began his first track meet not knowing what a discus was, but eventually broke the West Tennessee record. He declined to complete written tests, but once they were administered orally he improved F’s to high D’s. Junior year, he was finally allowed to play football and he regularly blocked four people on every play. He picked up one bumptious lineman and took him off the field, across the track, and over the chain-link fence.
NCAA recruitment rules are among the most complicated on the planet (can’t speak until senior year but can watch from distance, only three official visits but unlimited unofficial visits, etc.). LSU Coach Saban impressed; UTenn’s Fulmer didn’t; but chose Ole Miss, to delight of Tuohys (alumni athletes). Exploited several loopholes to be academically eligible, using online BYU classes to replace F’s and testing positive for a learning disability. NCAA investigated complaint Tuohy’s had adopted Oher intentionally to recruit for Ole Miss; Sean agitated by feeling it was more a reactionary public relation move than honest enforcement.
University of Mississippi has spotty record on civil rights; seen as the wealthier alternative to Mississippi State (though State had the best turf). He retained his private tutor, his HS coach became an assistant, and Sean and Leigh Anne built a house near campus. Though he had only played 15 games and never lifted weights, Oher started immediately at right guard (where he had help on both sides and verbal instructions). At one point, attacked a harasser—injuring a young child—but was expunged with public service.
Takeaway: Even a 6’4” 325lb miracle athlete required a lot of lucky breaks to be successful. “Sports is the closest thing in America to pure meritocracy, the one avenue of ambition widely thought to be open to all. Pity the kid inside Hurt Village who was born to play the piano, or manage people, or trade bonds.”
Parents fought nightly, raised in Protestant church. Went to christian college (Gordon); friends pressured into sex so got married. Article on Chris Farley convinced him to move to Chicago (met Kumail Nanjiani), Comedian documentary convinced him to move to NYC (met John Mulaney). Wife hated city, moved upstate to Sleepy Hollow and she cheated/left him. After divorce, became atheist and committed himself to comedy. Made it on Fallon, started successful podcast, dated three girls, and did shrooms at Bonnaroo. Came to believe God is a metaphor for the mystery that transcends human thought, and the Bible is more poetry than nonfiction. Like art, everyone draws their own meaning from the metaphor. After years of journey, landed on a belief of God as awareness achieved through meditation. Conan helped him get midnight Pete Holmes Show; Judd Apatow helped with Crashing. Now lives with wife and daughter in LA.
DNA: Every cell holds two copies of DNA, which is an instruction manual for making you. DNA is divided into segments called chromosomes and shorter units called genes, which provide instructions for building proteins. All humans share 99.9% of their DNA, and yet no two humans are alike. The total cost of all the parts to build a new human being would be around $150K.
Brain: Your brain is you, everything else is just plumbing and scaffolding. It churns through more information in 30 seconds than Hubble Space Telescope has processed in 30 years. To account for 1/5 second lag from optical nerve to processing, brain actually forecasts future. It doesn’t just tell us how something feels, but how it ought to feel (why caress of lover is nice but stranger is creepy; and why it’s hard to tickle yourself). Brain makes up just 2% of our weight but uses 20% of our energy. A decapitated head will still have some oxygenated blood in it, so loss of consciousness can take 2-7 seconds.
Eyes: When you see little white sparks appearing are your own white blood cells moving through a capillary in front of the retina. Floaters are clumps of microscopic fibers in the jellylike vitreous humor of your eye, which cast a shadow on the retina. Tears come in three varieties: basal (lubricates), reflex (smoke/onions), and emotional (heartbreak). We blink 14,000 times a day—meaning our eyes are shut for ~23 minutes.
Ears: To protect from damage, an acoustic reflex jerks the stapes away from the cochlea whenever a brutally intense sound is perceived (why we are often deafened after an explosion).
Mouth: We swallow every 30 seconds. Saliva, while mostly water, contains a tiny portion of proteins that speed up chemical reactions. Tooth enamel is the hardest substance in the human body, but forms just a thin layer and can’t be replaced. When eating, the tongue “darts about like a nervous host at a cocktail party, checking the taste and shape of every morsel in preparation for dispatching it onward to the gullet.” Humans choke to death more easily than any other mammal (air and food share pathway). Smell accounts for 70-90% of flavor, though most aroma travels not through nostrils but the “retronasal route.” Genuine smiles don’t last more than four seconds and can’t be faked, since they require contraction of eye muscles we can’t control.
Skin: Largest and most versatile organ. We shed over a million flakes/hour. When pores are blocked with plugs of dead skin and dried sebum, it creates a blackhead. If the follicle additionally becomes infected and inflamed, it results in pimple.
Hair: We grow about twenty-five feet of hair in a lifetime, but because all hair falls out at some point, no single strand can ever get longer than about three feet. 20% of men are “substantially bald” by 30; 60% by 50.
Heart: The heart beats ~3.5B times in a lifetime (nearly all other animals die after ~800M). These are not gentle; powerful enough to send blood spurting 10ft if the aorta is severed. Every time you stand up, gravity drains a pint and a half of blood downward, so your heart must overcome. The journey of blood around your body takes about fifty seconds to complete. Blood pressure (e.g. 120/80) measure the highest and lowest pressures your blood vessels experience with each heartbeat. Incidents:
Heart Attack: when oxygenated blood can’t get to heart muscle because of a blockage in a coronary artery, permanently damaging heart muscle within an hour. Heart attacks are often sudden and often at night.
Cardiac arrest: when the heart stops pumping altogether, usually because of a failure in electrical signaling. When the heart stops pumping, the brain is deprived of oxygen and unconsciousness swiftly follows. A heart attack will often lead to cardiac arrest, but you can suffer cardiac arrest without having a heart attack.
Blood: Grown men have 5 quarts of blood. Parts: (1) Plasma; (2) Red blood cells to deliver oxygen; (3) White blood cells to fight off infections; and (4) Platelets for clotting. Donated blood lasts about 42 days. In old days, treated most disease by draining blood (George Washington’s physicians unsuccessfully removed 40% of his blood in two days). We can’t digest food while exercising because the body shunts blood away from the digestive system to meet the increased demand to supply oxygen to the muscles.
Bones/Muscles: We have ~206 bones, over half are in the hands and feet. Bones are living tissue and the only kind that doesn’t scar. Like muscles, they grow bigger with exercise. We have >600 muscles. Because muscle is so expensive to maintain, we sacrifice muscle tone quickly when not in use (astronauts lose bone density and 20% muscle mass on weeklong trips). Most primates have opposable thumbs; ours are just more pliant and mobile. Our feet were designed to grasp, not to support a lot of weight. One British WWII gunner miraculously fell 3 miles without a parachute and survived.
Immune System: Responds to germs, toxins, drugs, cancers, foreign objects, and even your own state of mind. Much of our suffering is self-inflicted in the form of autoimmune diseases like multiple sclerosis, lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, and Crohn’s disease. T cells kill cells invaded by pathogens. Memory T cells remember the details of earlier invaders to coordinate swift future responses. Allergy rates vary from ~10-40% (richer countries have more allergies).
Lungs: 80% of the air we breathe is nitrogen which we breathe right back out. The discomfort you feel when you hold your breath for too long is caused not by the depletion of oxygen but by a buildup of CO2 (the first thing you do when you stop holding your breath is blow out).The reason our nose runs in winter is warm air from the lungs meets cold air coming into the nostrils and condenses, resulting in a drip.
Nutrition: Men need ~2600 calories/day. Without water, men can go 45 miles in 80-degree heat (just 15 miles in 100-degree heat). Cooking kills toxins, improves taste, makes tough substances chewable, greatly broadens the range of what we can eat, and vastly boosts the amount of calories humans can derive from what they eat. In the 1920s, vitamins were named alphabetically–until B was discovered to be several and then some of those were eliminated. In northern climates, Vitamin D deficiency may be as high as 90%. CDC estimates 97% don’t get enough potassium. Fats: Unsaturated (veggies) are best, followed by saturated (meat) and trans (artificial). Modern fruits are designed to be extra sugary. For a man, the average journey time from mouth to anus is 55 hours (72 hours for women) Farts are 50% CO2, 40% hydrogen, and 20% nitrogen. About a third of people produce methane, a notorious greenhouse gas, while two-thirds produce none at all.
Sleep: Helps consolidate memories, restore hormonal balance, empty the brain of accumulated neurotoxins, and reset the immune system. The ~90-min cycles of sleep are repeated four or five times a night. Men are erect for ~2hr/night. 10-20% adults have insomnia, but only 0.04% have narcolepsy. Nightmares may simply be the amygdalae unburdening themselves.
Gender/Sex: Chance of successful fertilization without contraception are around 3%. Healthy women carry ~50% more fat than men. Until recently, drug trials often excluded women for fear menstrual cycles could skew results. The average age of women at first birth in the U.S. is 26, the lowest among rich nations. At 35, a woman’s stock of eggs is 95% exhausted and those that remain are more liable to faults or surprises. The average cost of childbirth in the U.S. is about $30K for a conventional birth and $50K for a Cesarean. Today almost 80% of American women breast-feed just after birth, though that number falls to 49% after six months and 27% after a year.
Viruses: Terribly small, not quite living but not dead. You can never develop immunity to all cold viruses. The average adult touches his face 16 times/hour, and each of those touches transfer pathogen from nose to snack bowl to third party to doorknob to fourth party and so on. Flu virus can survive on a surface for 2.5 weeks if accompanied by snot (without, only a few hours).
Antibiotics: Fleming discovered Penicillin in 1928. Problems: They also wipe out good microbes. The more we expose microbes to antibiotics, the more opportunity they have to develop resistance. Pharma’s business cases are weak (patents often last only ~5 years beyond clinical trials, people take antibiotics for only a week or two, most are used on farm animals).
Disease: Danger depends on: how lethal it is, how good it is at finding new victims, how easy or difficult it is to contain, and how susceptible it is to vaccines. Flus spread easily, show/kill slowly, and live on in animals (60% disease zoonotic). Smallpox, the most devastating disease in the history of humankind, infected nearly everyone and killed 30%. Officially just two stocks of smallpox remain (in CDC Atlanta and Siberia) but CIA believes there are stocks in France, Iraq, and North Korea. 90% of rare diseases have no treatments. There are around 7 cases of bubonic plague/year in the U.S.
Cancer: Entirely internal; the body turning on itself. Immune system kills 1-5 cancerous cells every day, but if missed they remain painless and invisible until tumors grow big enough to press on nerves or form a lump. Treatment includes surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy (discovered 1943 when US supply ship in Italy with mustard gas was bombed by Germans and noted mustard gas dramatically slowed the creation of white blood cells).
Life Spans: Global life expectancy grew from 48 in 1950 to 71 today for men; (53 to 76 for women). Yet the US lags in 31st place, despite generous spending and the high quality care. Americans lead more unhealthy lifestyles (drinking/driving, guns). Top killers: (1) heart disease (2) cancer (3) Alzheimer’s. About 60% of deaths follow a slow, protracted decline. ~40% of people over 75 who break their hips are no longer able to care for themselves.
Aging: Varied theories: genetic mutation (your genes malfunction and kill you), wear-and-tear (the body just wears out), and cellular waste accumulation (your cells clog up with toxic by-products). Bladder becomes less elastic/capacious, skin becomes drier and leathery, blood vessels break more readily creating bruises, the layer of fat beneath the skin thins (making it harder to stay warm), and the amount of blood pushed with each heartbeat falls gradually. Oldest person died at 122 (oldest man was 116). Most dying people lose any desire to eat or drink in the last day or two. When the ability to cough or swallow goes, they often make a rasping sound commonly known as a death rattle. Decomposition in a sealed coffin can take as long as 40 years.
We have made tremendous advancements in healthcare, driven by hundreds of years of courageous research (including scientists who ate food on strings to pull it back up, self-inflicted themselves with tape worms, and used family members as cadavers). For the first time in 2011, more people died from non-communicable diseases than infectious diseases, meaning we are now usually killed by our own lifestyles. Medical overtreatment is driven by profit and fear of litigation (drug companies commonly offer generous rewards to doctors to promote their drugs). FDA provides no oversight on supplements as long as they are not obviously dangerous.
Chronology (1962):
Sept 6: USSR clandestinely begins staging missiles in Cuba.
Oct 14: U-2 discovers missiles.
Oct 16: JFK convenes ExComm, split into groups to write respective recommendations trying to anticipate all possible contingencies. JFK criticized by military, Congress for choosing blockade.
Oct 22: JFK announces publicly, demands withdrawal of missiles, orders US quarantine (deployed over 30 ships), mobilized military to SE US, asked State Dept to prepare for post-invasion civil Cuban government, and prepared with European allies for counter-blockade of Berlin.
Oct 24: Khrushchev orders forces full alert; threatens to sink US ships.
Oct 25: Soviet ship stops short of US quarantine line. Stevenson briefs UN.
Oct 26-7: Khrushchev letters initially offers withdrawal, then demands removal of missiles from Turkey. A U-2 is shot down over Cuba.
JFK long wanted to remove outdated Jupiter missiles from Turkey (Polaris submarine missiles from Mediterranean more accurate anyway).
Majority of ExComm wanted to attach Cuba after U-2 shootdown; JFK pulled back. FBI reported USSR personnel were leaving UN.
Oct 27: US responds affirmatively, promises air strike if missiles not removed by October 28.
Oct 28: Khrushchev announces withdrawal of missiles.
Lessons
Secrecy and time was important to prevent panic/escalation
POTUS valued perspectives of many departments and individuals (both senior and junior)
Allies were important (OAS legalized quarantine, NATO backed findings, UN brief embarrassed USSR)
Slow verbal development allowed him to observe with wonder and curiosity everyday phenomena others took for granted. Music helped him think—became an expert violin player. Rejected all forms of dogma and authority—in both religion and science. Saw engineering as limiting his creative energy toward bleak capital objectives. As a student, he already displayed a distracted demeanor, casual grooming, frayed clothing, and forgetfulness. Married Mileva Maric, who was neither attractive nor warm, but another misfit scholar. Their first illegitimate child was given up for adoption (and lost to history), but they had two sons. Weak in math, Einstein graduated college near the bottom of his class and unable to find a job in academia he became a patent examiner (though this reinforced his most important traits—skepticism and independence). He created a physics group called Olympia Academy and in 1905, he published four papers which:
Asserted light travels in “quanta” of light—not just waves;
Determined the true size of atoms and estimated Avogadro’s Number (this safe topic finally earned his PhD);
Explained the jittery motion of microscopic particles;
Introduced the Special Theory of Relativity (measurements of time and space are not absolute, only relative to one another)—he added a coda six months later that mass and energy are different manifestations of the same thing, thus E=mc2 (originally L=mV2). He followed this up with the Equivalence Principle, stating the local effects of gravity and acceleration are equivalent.
*His 1915 General Theory of Relativity posited the fabric of spacetime was not merely a container for objects and events, but has its own dynamics determined by objects within it (like a bowling ball on a trampoline). Gravitational field equations became the foundation for cosmology; believed space had no borders because gravity bends it back on itself.
Despite recognition from Max Planck, his subsequent application to be a high school teacher in Zurich was rejected. He was an informal and choppy lecturer—characteristics which would later be seen as part of his charm. As his marriage crumbled, viewed Maric “as an employee whom he cannot fire” and drew up a contract in which she was to deliver him meals but not speak to him. He became intimate with his first cousin on both sides, Elsa, who offered not romance but uncomplicated support and affection. His messy divorce (in which he promised any Nobel Prize winnings to Maric) completed the same time as WWI. Achieved celebrity when Eddington’s eclipse experiment validated his prediction on gravitational bending of light. Rather than a drab academic, Einstein was charming, unique, informal, twinkling eyes and dispensed wisdom in bite-sized quips. Didn’t drive; rarely wore socks. He sustained friendships and dalliances so long as he wasn’t expected to give up any independence—but remained cold to his own family.
Einstein felt loyalty to a party surrendered independence of thought, but after WWI began expounding a democratic socialism that advocated equality and taming of capitalism but opposed revolutionary Bolshevism. Whereas other German Jews sought cultural assimilation, anti-Semitism strengthened Einstein’s connection to his Jewish heritage and Zionism (near the end of the life he was asked to be president of Israel). First nominated for Nobel in 1910, but committee was leery of pure theorists and anti-Semite Lenard worked to prevent. Finally won in 1921 for photoelectric effect—not relatively—and began worldwide celebrity tour. For the rest of his life, he embarked on long and lonely efforts to devise a unified field theory (to join gravitational and electromagnetic) and discredit/critique emerging quantum mechanics (refused the role of chance). He achieved neither, though made meaningful contributions.
A militant pacifist until Hitler’s rise, Einstein regularly espoused both prescient and naïve opinions on arms control, Israel, and social justice. After, focused on a supranational organization. After Nazis raided his Potsdam cottage, he renounced his citizenship and vowed never to return (and was rumored to have a $5K bounty on his head). After a prolonged free agency, selected Princeton.
Friend Szilard explained uranium fission hoping Einstein would warn the Belgian Queen of German efforts; decided it prudent to also alert the State Department. Roosevelt was informed in 1939 (initially tried to reach through Charles ‘America First’ Lindbergh), and the trio of Hungarian refugees (Szilard, Wigner, Teller) launched the Manhattan Project in December 1941. Einstein was neither a nuclear physicist nor someone who enjoyed proximity to military leaders—but also wasn’t granted a security clearance. After the bomb, became chairman of the Emergency Committee of Atomic Scientists, dedicated to nuclear arms control and a world government. The FBI compiled a 1,417-page file on Einstein—he absentmindedly signed onto 30+ causes associated with Communists, opposed McCarthyism, and had unwittingly been romantic with a Soviet spy—though he avoided major public targeting.
Died of an abdominal aortic aneurysm in 1955. Though science convinced him the Bible could not be true, he had a religiosity for the mysterious/unexplainable (“science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind”). Einstein requested cremation, though his brain was embalmed by the pathologist at Princeton hospital and only revealed when his son told an elementary school classmate. The rogue pathologist kept it with him for the next 40 years, before returning it to the hospital before he died. Strengths:
Curious mind and masterful at seeing the physical content behind abstract formulas and visualizing thought experiments (devised relativity in office overlooking the Bern clock tower and train station).
He was a better theorist than experimentalist (nearly exploded his hand in 1899). Preferred deduction (starting with elegant principles and deducing consequences) to induction (analyzing experimental findings). Often ended papers with suggestions for practical experiments.
Dealt with personal setbacks by retreating into his work and could tune out all distractions when focused (zoned out at dinner, when poked to stand he didn’t realize it was to honor himself)
Planck, Poincare, and Lorentz almost invented Special Relativity but were too wedded to old theory. Hilbert was racing Einstein to General Relativity but generally concedes Einstein got there first.
-Unmanned vehicles are smaller, lighter, faster, more maneuverable, have greater endurance, and can take greater risk. They can reduce the OODA loop to nanoseconds; humans can be in, on, or out of the loop. AI isn’t good or bad—it’s powerful. Issues:
-Automated stock trading has already led to “flash crashes.” Like a running gun (continues firing after trigger release), flawed AI (likely across several platforms) could create incidents of mass lethality. In 2010, a Fire Scout wandered 23 miles off course toward restricted DC air space. Whereas Wall Street now has 15-minute “circuit breakers,” there’s no time-out in war.
-Autonomous movement and firing is easy—the hard part is target identification. Human brain requires very little bandwidth to authorize targets—thus human-machine teaming. Humans put slack in a system’s operations, reducing tight coupling which often leads to disasters (e.g. Three Mile Island)
-Testing is vital to building trust in how autonomous systems will behave in real-world environments, but impossible to imagine—much less evaluate—all possible scenarios. Added software increases complexity, which makes some error inevitable (8 F-22s experienced a Y2K-esque computer meltdown in 2007 when crossing the International Date Line and had to follow a tanker back to base). Software also increases vulnerability to hacking.
-Deep Learning: AI has seen rapid progress in object recognition and perception due to deep learning, which uses neural networks (inspired by brain neurons). Rather than follow a script, neural networks work based on the strength of connections within a network. Thousands of data samples are fed into the network and the weights of various connections between nodes in the network are constantly adjusted to the “train” the network. Network settings are refined until the correct output is produced. Deep networks can handle more complex tasks and can have 100+ layers. TensorFlow allows anyone to download pre-trained neural networks and software. AlphaGo learned from 30million games; on move 37 of Game 2, made a stunning move in the empty far corner. Increasingly complex neural networks are messy and less explainable; they classify static nonsense images as “dog” with 99.9% confidence. This makes reliable autonomous targeting questionable.
-Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk have raised concerns about creating “seed” general AI capable of recursive self-improvement beyond humans (“superintelligent AI”). To avoid, design AI as tools (not agents) and keep goals aligned.
-DoD Directive 3000.09 approves semiautonomous weapons (e.g. homing missiles), defensive supervised autonomous weapons (e.g. Aegis), and nonlethal non-kinetic autonomous weapons (e.g. cognitive EW jamming). Any additional autonomy requires special approval from Pentagon leadership, which has thus far warned against putting “general AI” into weapons for fear of the “Terminator Conundrum.” However, when adversaries go there, we’ll be forced (e.g. we denigrated unrestricted submarine until Pearl Harbor). Relevant Weapon Systems and Programs:
First guided munition was 1943 German “Falcon” Torpedo. Modern Technologies: ICBMs use inertial navigation with gyroscopes and accelerometers. SLBMs use star-tracking celestial navigation since launch point varies. Cruise missiles use radar, digital scene mapping, or GPS. A single nuclear sub has 24 missiles—enough to unleash over 1000x the destructive power of Hiroshima.
Automated Defense: Aegis combat system uses tailored doctrines with extensive testing based on mission (prevent 1988 Vincennes disaster). Patriot (prevent shootdowns of Tornado, F/A-18 in 1990). C-RAM good mix of human-machine teaming; system IDs but humans perform final verification. Also Phalanx CIWS, active protection for ground vehicles (e.g. Israeli Trophy, Russian Arena).
A single Predator or Reaper remote-piloted airplane (not “unmanned”) orbit requires 7-10 pilots, 20 sensor operators, and scores of intel analysts. Global Hawk and Grey Eagle UAVs are directed where to go by operators and fly autonomously. Cooperative autonomy is the next stepIsraeli Harpy loiters for 2.5 hours until finds target). US Tomahawk Anti-Ship Missile (TASM) was similar but retired in 1990s.
Mines explode autonomously but are not mobile, sometimes have limited lifespans.
Sensor Fuzed Weapon is complex cluster bomb targeting groups of land vehicles.
X-47B (Salty Dog 501 and 502) remain the world’s most advanced aircraft. Roadmaps sometimes articulate ambitious dreams which are undermined by practical barriers (e.g. budget, pilot mafia).
DARPA’s Fast Lightweight Autonomy: Researchers outfit commercial quadcopters with custom sensors, processors, and algorithms to race through obstacle courses at ~45 mph. *Eisenhower created both DARPA and NASA in response to Sputnik.
Stuxnet: Because the target was air-gapped, had to perform the mission autonomously. Built in safety included test for PLC before infecting, R0 of 3 other machines, and June 2012 expiration date. Currently, cyber offense has the advantage (defenders have to close all vulnerabilities, while attackers have to just find one way in).
-Policy Considerations:
Legally, AI needs to meet principles of distinction (ID non-combatants) and proportionality (), and other (e.g. discerning surrendering soldiers). Challenge with accountability gap for liability (defense contractors generally shielded from civil liability). But bans can be counterintuitive—cutting off development may preclude invention of even safer alternatives (e.g. CS gas, smart land mines, precision munitions).
Morally, AI wouldn’t hesitate to kill the unaware soldier, though some humans are evil and could aggression end the war sooner? One WWII study found only 15-20% of soldiers were actually firing at the enemy. While machines add literal distance, psychological distance remains close (HD video, tracking target for weeks before).
As far as stability/deterrence, there are countless arguments on both sides. Human understanding of context is important (if not for Stanislav Petrov’s judgement, the USSR would’ve launched nukes in 1983—one of at least 13 near-use nuclear incidents from 1962-2002). The bar to non-nuclear autonomous weapons may be lower, though if they are perceived as dangerous it might induce caution.
Ban: To work, need a clear definition of autonomous weapons, a focal point for coordination, transparency to build trust, and the horribleness of a weapon must outweigh its military utility. Options include bans of antipersonnel autonomous weapons, establishing rules of the road, or creating a general principle about the role of human judgment in war.
Social Media companies encourage behavioral addiction through intermittent positive reinforcement (unpredictable ‘likes’ drive more dopamine) and the drive for social approval. Continuous use has a heavy opportunity cost.
We need a full-fledged philosophy of technology use which understands clutter is costly, optimization is important, and intentionality is satisfying. Begin with 30-day digital declutter in which you remove all non-essential technology and pursue hobbies which you find satisfying—then carefully reintroduce technologies which serve something you value deeply. Practices:
Everyone needs solitude (Lincoln spent 75% of his presidency at the soldiers home). Unhurried self-reflection provides insight and emotional balance and reduces anxiety. Leave your phone at home. Take long walks. Write letters to yourself.
Social media steals time from the real-world socializing** **that’s massively more valuable. Conversation (including phone or FaceTime) is the only form of interaction that counts toward maintaining a relationship. Set conversation office hours (e.g. 5:30 every day).
Spend leisure in craft** **(using skills to produce valuable things in the physical world). This energizes you more than passive consumption which leads to depressive boredom. Join a club (e.g. Franklin’s Junto club). Fix or build something every week. Don’t watch Netflix alone.
Join the Attention Resistance. Delete social media from your phone. Embrace “Slow Media” (thoughtful analysis always more valuable than breaking news). Buy a watch.
Takers help others strategically, when benefits outweigh costs. They value wealth, power, and pleasure. Givers help others whenever benefits to others outweigh cost. They value helpfulness, responsibility, compassion. Matchers help to the extent it helps them.
Success requires motivation, ability, and opportunity. Turns out the most and least successful people are givers, while takers and matchers are somewhere in the middle. Reasons givers can be more successful:
They build a good reputation and strong network, which provides private information, diverse skills/advice, and power over the long term. (“Kissing up, kicking down” gets noticed)
They are more likely to see interdependence as a source of strength, and more receptive to expertise from others, who might offer a less biased perspective.
They are more effective scouts of potential, focusing on motivation and work ethic over natural talent.
They use powerless (humble) communication, which builds influence through prestige rather than dominance. Givers seek advice and actually listen (research indicates the more a person talks, the more they feel they’ve learned about the others in the conversation).
What distinguishes successful givers from unsuccessful givers:
To avoid burnout, they receive feedback on the impact of their giving. 2 hours of volunteering per week maximizes fulfillment. Research suggests we actually get more fulfillment spending money on others rather than ourselves.
Once a counterpart clearly identifies as a taker, they shift to a matching strategy. They are not overly timid or trusting. When they feel inclined to back down, they draw reserves of assertiveness from their commitments to people who matter to them (e.g. when negotiating salary, they pretend they are advocating on behalf of someone else).
They create communities where people are increasingly motivated to give to one another. Once takers feel outside they norm, they become givers. They seek help more often, and help others by giving honest feedback and/or making an introduction.
Test Pilot Schools: USAF in Edwards, CA, USN in Pax River, MD. Only those with “right stuff” became fighter jocks; could be disqualified for any of hundreds of reasons. Career navy pilots had 23% of death in accident, 56% chance need to eject. Nosingle factor killed a pilot; always a chain of mistakes. Egotistical, fraternal culture of “Flying & Drinking & Driving.” Chuck Yeager broke two ribs in horse riding accident night before breaking Mach 1 (1947), had to rig up broomstick to close his canopy before launching from a B-29. Legendary Yeager popularized the West Virginia drawl voice many pilots now use. Throughout Mercury, broke Mach 5 and sent X-15s as high as 66 miles up (50 miles is arbitrary threshold for space), but received only perfunctory press coverage. Yeager became director, near fatal crash the day McNamara cancelled X-20, went on to fly over 100 missions in B-57 tactical bomber in SE Asia.
Project Mercury: Originally public application, Eisenhower stipulated use test pilots with clearances under 5’10.” Selected Scott Carpenter, John Glenn, Gus Grissom,Wally Schirra, Al Shepard, Gordon Cooper, Deke Slayton. Traveled the country for lectures on astronomy, rocket propulsion, flight operations, capsule systems, trips to contractors, parabolic weightless rides on C-131s. Primary locations in Langley AFB, CapeCanaveral, and (after 1962) Houston. American rockets (Atlas, Navaho, Jupiter) notorious for blowing up. NASA (formerly NACA) used 40 buzzer-trained chimpanzees for test runs; on one landing the pod flooded which would have been two hours of terror for a human but the chimp was gloriously bored. Astronauts lobbied to get as much manual control as possible (and a window). Lifesigned $500,000 deal for exclusive access to astronauts and families. Glenn was most experienced, disciplined,eloquent, but Shepard selected as first American to go to space. On launch (1961), four hour delay for 15 minute flight meant Shepard had no way to urinate so relieved himself inside suit. Made it to space in tiny green-tinted capsule, saw blip of earth in black and white, and coined term “A-Okay”(sharper A cut through static better than O). In second flight, Grissom blamed for popping the hatch too soon and the entire capsule sunk. Glenn became first American to orbit earth,circling three times (1962). Most danger: (1) Launch; (2) Re-Entry Angle. Carpenter did same but wasted fuel in space so missed landing by 250 miles (Cronkite announced dead). Schirra completed textbook flight with six orbits. Cooper completed final Mercury mission, 22 orbits with perfect manual re-entry.
Project Gemini and Apollo: Next nine astronauts selected to beat the Soviets to the Moon.
Model for communication has sender, message, channels, receiver, noise, and feedback. Effective communication requires understanding how each participant sees things (perception), thinks about things (cognition), and feels things (emotion).
The more automatic we allow everyday interactions to become, the more vulnerable we are to mistakes which interfere with good communication.
Move from control talk (commands, blame, etc) to dialogue talk (seeking to understand the other, heavy use of I-messages).
Use counter-offers (e.g. “I’m in the middle of my book so would rather not pick you up, but can get started on dinner so it’s ready when you get home.”)
INTP-specific tips: As introvert, state agreements/disagreements so others don’t have to guess what you’re thinking. As intuitive, base your opinions on factual information. As thinking, take time to understand how others feel. As perceiver, can keep options open but try to be less vague.
In relationships, invest in sustaining the relationship, maintain a commitment to the future of the relationship, and continually build trust.
Three Act Structure: Inciting Incident, Turning Point, Climax
Genres: Taxonomy based on atmosphere, character, and story. 11 Super genres (Action, Crime, Fantasy, Horror, Life, Romance, Science Fiction, Sports, Thriller, War, Western). Hundreds of Macro and Micro-Genres underneath.
Story Shape: How the story is told (illustrated with an arrow diagram)
Theme: Moral (e.g. “With great power comes great responsibility”, “Love conquers all”)
Traditional/Nontraditional:Storyteller delivers the theme/messy or complex themes
Didactic/ActiveDialogue: Spoken with the intention of teaching/audience makes the intellectual leap on its own. Best to mix both.
Artistic Techniques:
Directors use angles and blocking to illustrate how we’re supposed to feel about characters (e.g. Dorothy’s perceived height in the Wizard of Oz).
Editors carefully craft clips together to make connections (e.g. between jealousy and fights in Raging Bull)
Sound editors make real, hyperreal, or surreal (e.g. Apocalypse Now fans sound like helicopters)
Sets portray mood or realism (Apollo 13 filmed in zero gravity plane)
Soundtrack sets emotion (or lack thereof; no music in No Country for Old Men)
Special effects increasingly common (e.g. all blood in Zodiac is digital)
Color hue, value, and saturation call attention to meanings (e.g. red coat in Schindler’s List represents lost innocence)
Directors play off tropes and sometimes kill off star actors to keep audiences off balance (e.g. Janet Leigh in Pyscho).
Actors play different masks and primary emotions (what characters feel) and secondary emotions (what the audience feels).
Point of view can be limited/omniscient, primary/secondary character, and objective/subjective (real/biased).
Great Movies: Citizen Kane introduced flashback, wide focus, audio overlapping visual, and low-angle shots. Casablanca introduced a heroically ambiguous ending (Rich doesn’t get Ilsa). Good Will Hunting Written by Matt Damon and Ben Affleck.
Hydration: At least 2qts/day; morning urine should be pale lemonade not apple juice
Water sufficient for moderate and under 30min exercise, else sports drink (salt>=potassium)
Whey protein and chocolate milk helpful after lifting
Carbohydrates: Should be 50% of diet, just avoid processed/high fructose corn syrup
Fiber: Eat variety (both soluble and non); can lower LDL
Protein: Unlike other nutrients, body cannot store so need steady flow
Fats: Not all bad (e.g. omega-3 fatty acids from cold water fish), but eat less animal fat
Vitamins:
C: Reduces duration of cold but not onset; too much causes diarrhea
A: Important for vision
E: Once lauded, but deficiency is actually rare
D: Rising star, helps reduce blood pressure and prevent diabetes, heart disease, MS, schizophrenia, and cancer
B: 8 types, alcohol kills, Riboflavin (B2) deficiency can lead to dry lips
Minerals: May become part of the body. Major: Calcium, Phosphorous, Potassium, Sulfur, Sodium, Chlorine, Magnesium, Iron, Zinc
To lower blood pressure, cut sodium (less salt/processed foods) and increase potassium (fruits/bananas, cranberry/beet/apple juice, potatoes, dairy/yogurt). Potassium also reduces the risk of kidney stones.
Zinc: effectiveness against colds is mixed, but mild protection against macular degeneration (loss of vision)
Probiotics: healthy bacteria from fermentation; can autopopulate in gut; found in yogurt/kombucha; fights diarrhea/STDs
To prevent cardiovascular disease (heart attack, stroke, congestive heart failure), lower blood pressure and cholesterol, exercise, drink less alcohol (elevates triglycerides)
Blood pressure: systolic (120) / diastolic (80)
DASH Diet:
8-10 servings fruits and veggies
6-8 servings whole grains
2-3 servings low-fat dairy
2-3 servings oil/other fats
4-5 servings PER WEEK beans, nuts, seeds
Diarrhea: Eat Slower, Chew More, Drink Water, Eat Probiotics (e.g. Greek Yogurt), Soluble Fiber
Losing Weight: No matter diet, all about cutting calories (exercise important but running a mile only burns ~100 calories)
Illness: Wash hands 20 seconds (sing ABCs). Don’t leave perishables over 2hrs; if in doubt throw food out
Food Labels: Read back label (front less regulated, “low fat” does not mean low calorie); check serving sizes; look for short ingredient list.
Go for a colorful (rainbow), dull (not shiny) food touched by the fewest hands (least processed)
Balance and moderation is everything: “The body remembers what you do most of the time”
Make changes gradually
For portion control use smaller plates; drinking water helps you feel full
Avoid supplements (less bioavailability and risk toxicity), though Vitamin D OTC is ok
Fruit juices are good (have potassium), but less fiber and sometimes sugar/calories
At physical, ask to test Vitamin D, and Vitamin B12 if over 50
Exercise: need cardio (e.g. aerobics) AND weight resistance (e.g. calisthenics) to stay fit and protect lean mass (30+min/day). Use full range of motion, move slowly.
Heavy protein or fiber right before working out can cause stomach problems
Don’t stretch before you are warmed up; don’t exercise when sick.
Don’t mix grapefruit with medication.
Litigation and Legal Practice
Systems
Civil Law: Rulings have no lasting significance (France, Italy)
Common Law: Judicial decisions are sources of law (US, UK)
Adversarial: Lawyers on each side
Inquisitorial: Judges perform investigation
Types of Cases
Civil: Disputes between private parties
Criminal: Accusations of breaking criminal law
Pre-Trial:
Discovery: gathering facts
Attorney-Client Privilege: no lawyer can properly advise if the client is not free to speak candidly
Interrogatory: written questions answered in writing
Deposition: Q&A with potential witness
Trial:
Opening Statement is moment of primacy (only time you’re sure jury is paying attention)
Ethos (credibility), Pathos (persuasion), Logos (logic)
Direct Examination: questioning your own witnesses, can’t use:
Leading questions: ones that suggest their own answer
Hearsay: statements made out of court
Cross Examination: questioning the other side’s witnesses
Closing Argument is about laying out your argument
Appellate: No witnesses, just briefs and oral argument with judge questions.
State
Circuit Courts (~45)
Court of Appeals (~3)
State Supreme Court (1)
Federal
District Courts (94)
US Court of Appeals (13)
Supreme Court (1)
Criminal Law and Procedure
Players
Legislature*
Prosecutors*
Public Defenders/Firms
Judiciary (Judges/Juries)
Mens Rea: “Guilty Mind” (Intent):
Specific intent: Require state of mind (e.g. accidental theft not crime)
Strict liability: Guilty, regardless of state of mind (e.g. consumer protection law)
Homicide
Voluntary Manslaughter: Serious negligence results in death
Second Degree: Killing with malice (somewhat intentional)
Involuntary Manslaughter (e.g. bar fight, caught in adultery)
First Degree: Pre-meditated (decided in cold blood)
Self-Defense
Retreat doctrine: Person must retreat if possible to do so
Castle doctrine: Can fight back inside your home
Stand Your Ground: Extends castle doctrine anywhere
Battered Spouse: Can fight back, sometimes even not during attacks
Cruel and Unusual Punishment (8th)
Due Process (14th)
Searches and Seizures/Privacy (4th)
Supreme Court eventually settled on “reasonable expectation of privacy” for searches and seizures, but cars often fair game and technology presents challenges.
Warrants require probably cause of crime; with exceptions for permission, hot pursuit, or evidence in plain view. No consequences for lack of warrant outside exclusion of evidence.
Self-Incrimination Privilege (5th)
Right to silence designed to prevent coercion, inquisition, and “cruel trilemma” of:
lying, and thereby committing perjury
refusing to answer so as to be held in contempt of court
providing evidence—if not an outright admission—that could lead to a conviction
Interrogations: Once read Miranda rights, police can do just about anything they want short of physical violence. But ~80% of suspects foolishly waive Miranda rights.
Plea Bargains, Jury Trials, and Justice (6th)
95% of cases result in plea bargain; 30% of criminal trials are bench trials.
Jury Nullification allows acquittal of an obviously guilty defendant against an unjust criminal law.
Civil Procedure
Procedures matter as much as substantive law (5th and 14th Amendments)
Subject-Matter Jurisdiction: Court’s authority to hear cases concerning a particular subject matter
For efficiency, states often have special courts (e.g. family, landlord-tenant)
Diversity Jurisdiction: Federal courts hear controversies >$75K between parties from different states
Federal-Question Jurisdiction: Federal courts hear cases dealing with federal law (e.g. gender discrimination)
Personal Jurisdiction: Court must have jurisdiction over the defendant
Pleadings:
Ensures that cases are meritorious before proceeding to discovery (weeds out frivolous)
Facts must be plausible and give rise to cognizable claim
Complex Litigation:
Joinder of claims/parties: mechanism by which multiple claims and/or parties are joined in a single suit (for efficiency)
Types of Claims: Counter-claims, Cross-claims, third-party claims (impleader)
Claim Preclusion: plaintiff must join related claims or else lose right to assert them later
Class Action: a single representative plaintiff on behalf of class of many similarly situated persons
Discovery
Purpose: Want judgments based on merits, not which party has access to more information
Must share all relevant information proportional to the needs of the case
Privilege: a right to refuse to disclose information (e.g. doctor-patient privilege)
Work Product: attorney materials sometimes protected from discovery
Deciding before Trial
The vast majority of cases are decided by a judge prior to trial
Motion for Summary Judgment: Following discovery, “moving” party files a motion asking the court to grant judgment in its favor. Judge must decide there is no dispute over facts and only one legally acceptable outcome.
Judgment as a Matter of Law (“directed verdict”): Before or during trial, Judge rules in favor of one side.
Right to a Civil Jury Trial
Advantages: 12 minds better than one; seek justice over legal nuance; represent community. Disadvantages: waste of time and resources. 7th Amendment deemed “not sufficiently fundamental” extend to state civil courts.
Judge should resolve questions of law; jury should resolve questions of fact. Judge can always overturn jury or order re-trial for matters of law.
Determining What Law Applies
Re-litigation and Preclusion
Claim Preclusion: If you advance a claim and it’s adjudicated on its merits, you can’t reassert that claim in a subsequent suit.
Issue Preclusion: Even if the claim is different, issues tried and resolved in one suit generally can’t be litigated again in a subsequent suit.
Appeals and How They Are Judged
Interlocutory Rulings: Trial court rulings along the way but don’t resolve all claims (“final judgment”).
There are fairness and efficiency arguments on both sides, but in most court systems you cannot appeal interlocutory rulings (we assume the trial court is correct more than it’s wrong).
Appeals Courts never overturn facts from the Trial Court unless there is indisputable evidence otherwise (like NFL challenges).
Torts
Unlike criminal law, tort law remains a common-law field (mostly judge-made), meaning it evolves but slowly.
To establish negligence, plaintiff must show the defendant owed the plaintiff a duty of reasonable care, that the defendant breached this duty, and that this breach of duty caused the plaintiff’s harms or damages (factual and legal causation).
Misfeasance: Act done improperly which results in harm. Always bad.
Nonfeasance: Failure to do something that would have prevented harm. Usually ok (“no-duty-to-a-stranger”) unless special relationship (e.g. lifeguard) or state has Good Samaritan law.
Rules and Standards
Rules: Explicit guidance which limits jury discretion (e.g. speed limit). Can originate from judges, legislatures, or industry practices.
Standards: More flexible guidance (e.g. appropriate speed based on weather conditions). Example is the Reasonable Person Standard, based off a mythological conception of a “reasonable person”:
The defendant’s skills are considered (e.g. doctors expected to do their best). Unfortunately, tort law is less friendly to mental impairments than physical ones.
Cost Benefit Analysis: Act is breach of duty of care if:
Probability of Loss * Gravity of Loss > Burden/Cost of taking precautions (PL>B)
Vicarious Liability: When someone is held liable for another person’s wrongdoing.
Joint and Several Liability: Two or more defendants split the damages awarded to the plaintiff.
Comparative/Contributory Negligence: Allows jury flexibility when the plaintiff shares some responsibility
Examples:
Animals: Generally domestic animals under “one-bite” standard, while wild animals strict negligence.
Blasting: In modern tort, considered ultrahazardous and subject to strict liability.
Products Liability: With mass production, shifted to near strict liability for manufacturers (Escola v. Coca-Cola). Often thousands of potential plaintiffs.
Types of Harm
Tort Harm
Economic Loss
Types of Defects
Manufacturing
Design
Failure to Warn
Types of Damages
Compensatory Damages (focus on plaintiff)
Economic/Pecuniary: Easy to quantify (e.g. medical bills)
Non-economic: Hard to quantify (e.g. pain and suffering)
Punitive Damages (focus on defendant)
-US lagged Germany in jet planes and guided missiles, but was superior in heavy bomber and transport (esp. in numbers). Five bombers: B-17 (Fortress), B-24 (Liberator), B-25 (e.g. Doolittle Raid), B-26, B-29 (e.g. Enola Gay). B-24 was “flying box car” with 10-man crew. British gave up on daytime bombing due to heavily losses, but Americans persisted (nighttime was inaccurate terror bombing). Goal of strategic bombing was to target industry—especially fuel refineries in Germany, Austria, and Romania. (Eisenhower was hesitant, focused instead of bridges and trains near the battle lines.) Roosevelt was urged by Jewish leaders to bomb Auschwitz, but refused. Was critical to winning the war. Within a year of V-E Day, nearly all 18,000 B-24s were salvaged for parts.
-George McGovern decided to join Army Air Corps (instead of Army or Navy) because they were giving out free meal tickets to the cafeteria next door. Training sent him to Carbondale, IL; San Antonio, TX; Muskogee, OK; Coffeyville, KS; Pampa, TX; Liberal, KS. Got to know diverse men. Named plan Dakota Queen after wife Eleanor. Took month-long ship to base in Cerignola, Italy (wheat-producing origin of “Cheerios”). After D-Day, Italy became “Forgotten War.” Plane wasn’t pressurized, but below 10,000 feet could smoke cigarettes. Bomber crews owed 35 missions before being sent home (McGovern there Dec 1944-April 1945). Mix of hard/easy (“milk runs”). Faced problems including popped tire, engine outages, hydraulics/brakes, flak hitting cockpit, and a bomb stuck in the rack). One day, got stuck in the mud, blocked runway, forced cancellation. The more responsibility you have in a combat situation, the easier it is to remain cool and resolute—gunners were stuck watching airplane fly into anti-aircraft flak. Received cover from P-51 Tuskegee airmen, who circled above. Received 10-day leave in Capri; met Pope in Vatican.
We’re bad at talking with strangers for three primary reasons.
Truth Default Theory: we believe everything until our misgivings rise to a massive level.
Chamberlain thought he could read Hitler in person; enamored because he covered handshake with his left hand. FDR/Stalin never met him but understood him better.
DIA believed Montes because she was flirty/could explain away initial clues (until caught with NSA help).
Madoff left plenty of clues (said trading massive scale of derivatives, but five major banks didn’t work with him). First two complaints against Sandusky and dozens of red flags against Nassar went nowhere.
Transparency: we can’t read people nearly as well as we think we can. We’re taught that people are supposed to react in different ways but some people are mismatched.
Viewers of Friends can follow plotlines exactly without sound because their facial expressions match emotions exactly.
Amanda Knox wasn’t a killer—she just was mismatched, and didn’t react the way she was “supposed to” after her roommate was murdered.
Under the best of circumstances, men and women cannot read each other’s’ intentions, and alcohol only exacerbates. Brock Turner.
James Mitchell developed psychological explanations of USAF SERE training and CIA EIT program, but Charles Morgan’s research proves duress actually degrades memory. Also KSM incredibly was able to open his sinuses and the water in his nose would flow out his mouth.
Context: we rarely understand the context in which a stranger is operating.
Since 1937, the Golden Gate Bridge has been the site of more than 1,500 suicides, but it took 80 years to erect a barrier.
3.3% of street segments in many cities account for more than 50% of crime. Frivolous police pullovers actually worked to reduce gun crime in Kansas City, but has been overapplied elsewhere.
Each of these played in the interaction of Brian Encinia and Sandra Bland in TX. We can never expect to understand the whole truth, but should proceed with caution and humility.
Orthodox city planning calls for more parks, low density suburbs, public housing, open space and highways, and superblocks facing interior lawns. Jacobs asserts this is all wrong. Perfect neighborhoods: North End, Boston; Georgetown, DC; Rittenhouse Square, Philadelphia.
PT 1: Sidewalks and parks build community and safety via continuous foot traffic. Sidewalks require a clear delineation of public/private and continuous protection from the eyes of pedestrians and those inside buildings. Parks require sun, enclosure, and intricacy (need to feel like you can get lost); if not inherently attractive should at least host attractions. Three levels of neighborhood: city (receives federal/state funding); districts (), and streets (receive resident complaints).
PT 2: Conditions for city diversity:
Districts must serve more than one primary function to ensure presence of people using common facilities at different times
Blocks should be short to increase path options, enhancing social and economic development
Buildings should be varied ages, accommodating businesses able to afford different rents
There should be a dense concentration (over 100/acre) of people, to promote visible city life
Contrary to some claims, diversity is not ugly (monotony is ugly), does not cause congestion (encourages walking), and does not attract undesirable business (junk yards will inherently avoid thriving areas).
PT 3: Forces which attack diversity: Self-destruction, Deadening influence of massive single elements, Population instability, Effects of Money.
PT 4: Recommends subsidized dwellings where rent adjusts based on income (not public housing; gov’t makes bad landlord), attrition of automobiles (make roads smaller and cars will go away…), and decentralized city planning to deal with the complexities of cities.
Humans are uniquely able to craft stories. In the 20th Century we saw three stories: (1) fascism: one nation/race will conquer; (2) communism: lower class will rise to create a new social system; (3) liberalism: liberty will trump tyranny.
We have no dominant story for the 21st Century. Nostalgia generates bias; our living standards (mortality, poverty) have never been better in history. But common people today don’t see themselves in today’s big ideas (AI, bioengineering, block chain, etc).
Artificial Intelligence: There will be new jobs, but it’s not clear humans will have the requisite skills. There’s no shortage of work to be done, but society will need to retrain, and pay for things like community-building or raising families (could require redistribution).
Data Ownership: Data will be tremendously valuable but it’s unclear what data ownership means (unlike land, can make copies). Also, once algorithms are trained it may become less valuable again.
Hacking Humans: Previously, all the information connected was outside your skin (where you go, what you say); now, getting data about your (biometrics, heart rate, brain). We will likely defer more and more decision making to our AI (finance, romance).
Meditation: It is important we know ourselves better (meditation) to be sure we don’t outsource the important decisions. Good news is AI shows no signs of sentience (otherwise Google would already be there).
We need a common story to promote global cooperation on climate change, nuclear war, economic disruption. We can’t stop the advance of technology, but should approach these issues with a sense of bewilderment.
Optimistic: Globalization has drastically improved quality of life and grown overall GDP. History suggests technology will only change (not replace) labor markets. Two positive trends: everyone has access to the world’s knowledge and AI gives new boost (dominates in manipulating numbers, recognizing patterns). We could be seeing merely a short-term shock to work.
Pessimistic: But the rich world middle class is feeling alienated due to side effects like inequality and stagnant productivity. Three types of concentrations: wealth (individuals), industrial (fewer companies dominate), geographic (more value out of smaller footprint).
Data: Google knows more about you than anyone. Need government intervention around transparency and simplicity. But data may not actually be worth that much money (if FB divided its profits across its users it would be $12/year).
Policies: Risk isn’t inequality itself, but the combinations of legitimate stagnation with the seductions of demagoguery. Universal basic income is misguided policy. The problem isn’t that people lack money (starvation is very rare), but that people are increasingly alienated, disconnected (this doesn’t get solved by check). Negative income tax like EITC much more effective because would incentivize “gig economy” jobs (e.g. looking after the elderly). Healthcare should not be free market. Need infrastructure. Let more international students in.
Strategies are hypotheses based on incomplete information for how to achieve a desired goal. They require thorough consideration of alternatives and constant testing. Unsure where to start? Make a list of the ten most important things you need to do and start doing number one.
Hallmarks of Bad Strategy
Fluff: Using abstruse and inflated words to create the illusion of high-level thinking.
Goals/vision without planning: A list of objectives rather than plans for overcoming obstacles (note: routine planning is also not strategy).
Failure to face the challenge: Does not define the challenge to overcome, or simply re-states the challenge, making it impossible to evaluate and improve.
No Choices/Focus: Universal buy-in results in absence of any real choice (can be entrenched over time)
Template-Based: One-sized fits all approach
Kernel of Good Strategy
Diagnosis: Why. Defines the challenge. What’s holding you back from reaching your goals? A lot of strategy work is trying to figure out what’s going on. A good diagnosis simplifies the often overwhelming complexity of reality down to a simpler story by identifying certain aspects of the situation as critical. A good diagnosis often uses a metaphor, analogy, or an existing accepted framework to make it simple and understandable, which then suggests a domain of action.
Guiding policy: What. An overall approach chosen to cope with or overcome the obstacles identified in the diagnosis. Like the guardrails on a highway, the guiding policy directs and constrains action in certain directions without defining exactly what shall be done.
Coherent actions: How. Dictate how the guiding policy will be carried out. The actions should be coordinated and support each other. Centralization can be important (FDR political/economic/military actions in WWII).
Factors to continually assess (“Sources of Power”) include:
Anticipating market shifts (e.g. rising development costs, deregulation)
Identifying and exploiting your sustainable competitive advantages
Focusing on market segments
Identifying weakest links
Breaking organizational/cultural inertia by simplification to illuminate obsolete/inefficient behavior
Creating proximate objectives for quick wins/checking progress.
Garfield: Born in extreme poverty in Ohio log cabin; lost father before two; didn’t own shoes until four. Mother donated land for schoolhouse. At 16 left to become canal man (loved ocean), but nearly drowned. Worked as janitor in lieu of tuition at local “Eclectic Institute,” then transferred to Williams. Became President of Eclectic at age 26, joined Union after Fort Sumter. In Battle of Middle Creek, split his small forces to bluff its size, spurring Confederate withdrawal from Kentucky and earned Brigadier General. Ten months later, overwhelmingly elected to US Congress without a campaign. Away from Lucretia for nearly five years, had affair but promptly confessed and fell deeply in love. Lost two children (Eliza, Neddie); had five others. Wrote original proof of the Pythagorean Theorem during a free moment at the Capitol. In 1880 Republican Convention, Stalwarts (pro spoils system) against Half-Breeds (reformers). Ulysses Grant was expected to win a third nomination, but after dozens of votes Garfield emerged (though he vigorously resisted it, endorsing John Sherman instead). Like Lincoln, chose to work on farm instead of campaign (though as many as 5,000 people would come to his farm in Mentor at a time).
Guiteau: Motherless by seven; raised by religious zealot father who believed himself immortal. After six years in commune, became erratic lawyer and businessman. Gave small speech for Garfield before the election which he believed earned him a position. Wrote dozens of letters on hotel stationary to present himself as a man of means assuring he would “prefer Paris to Vienna…I presume my appointment will be promptly confirmed.” After hard denial from Secretary of State Blaine, believed God wanted him to kill Garfield. Believed Arthur would pardon him and his fame would support sales from his book “Truth: A Companion to the Bible.”
Assassination and Aftermath: After missing a few chances, Guiteau shot twice at Baltimore and Potomac Station on July 2, 1881. The Army was called in to prevent crowds from murdering Guiteau in his cell, while he authored a delusional autobiography announcing his candidacy for president. Garfield was taken back to the White House and his condition initially improved. He would’ve survived easily 15 years later (X-ray) or even if he was just left alone instead of constant probing to find the bullet. Alexander Graham Bell (telephone, metal detector) and Joseph Lister (antisepsis) each tried to save Garfield’s life. The metal detector suffered from interference from mattress springs and doctors had Bell looking on the wrong side of the body (he was also distracted by the death of his own son in Boston). Garfield’s physician Bliss usurped ten other surgeons and rejected antiseptic methods. After 79 days of suffering as the infections overtook Garfield’s body, he insisted on going to the sea so a specialty train was designed for a smooth journey to Long Branch, New Jersey. Despite his plea of insanity, Guiteau was sentenced to hanging. Garfield’s long illness and painful death brought the country together in a way that seemed impossible. With the support of a pen pal Julia Sands, Arthur radically reversed his positions and pushed through Civil Service Reform.
Swedish public health professor and data analyst. Surveys reveal people think global wellness metrics are much worse than they actually are. Ten reasons/heuristics:
Gap: Comparing averages can suggest gaps even where there is predominantly overlap.
Negativity: We notice bad more than good (media feeds this).
Straight Line: People assume linear trends instead of S-curves, slides, and humps.
Fear: Exaggerated fear distorts facts (why terrorism is so potent).
Size: Big numbers are abstract; best to put them in proportion
Generalization: Categorization is useful but we can’t assume uniformity.
Destiny: We assume innate characteristics will drive the status quo, but the only constant is change.
Single: Don’t simplify to single approaches (e.g. ideological), best to use a toolbox
Blame: Assigning blame/claiming credit isn’t proactive. The real heroes of global development are institutions and technology.
Urgency: Alarmism distorts reasoned analysis; take small steps
*The most important qualities we can have are humility and curiosity.
Bad things decreasing: Slavery, Oil Spills, HIV, Children Dying, Battle Deaths, Executions, Nuclear Arms, Hunger
Good things increasing: Water, Internet, Protected Nature, Literacy, Immunization, Democracy, Movies/Music
In Hindu Kush mountains near Pakistan, Korengal Valley too remote to conquer, too poor to intimidate, and too autonomous to buy off. The Soviets and Taliban never entered; the US oversaw about a quarter via handful of outposts. Rumored 9/11 was partly planned there; also near 2005 Abas Ghar (“Lone Survivor”) disaster.
Junger made several trips for Vanity Fair embedded in 173rd Airborne Brigade, “The Rock” Battalion, Battle Company, Second Platoon, Weapons Squad, A/B Fire teams’ 15-month deployment. Built outpost Restrepo named after beloved medic.
Enemy couldn’t inflict real damage on the Americans as long as they were in their bases, and the Americans couldn’t hope to kill the enemy unless they left their bases. US sent patrols out every few days to talk to the locals and disrupt enemy activity. They’d essentially walk until they got hit, then call in massive firepower (UAVs, Apaches, B-1, A-10s, AC-130 gunship) to kill as many of the enemy as possible. But for every American technological advantage, the Taliban devised countermeasures:
Apache helicopters have thermal imaging that reveals body heat on the mountainside, so Taliban fighters disappear by covering themselves in a blanket on a warm rock.
The Americans use unmanned drones to pinpoint the enemy, but the Taliban can do the same thing by watching the flocks of crows that circle American soldiers, looking for scraps of food.
The moral basis and long-term outcome of the war mattered little to its soldiers (like farmhands’ interest in the global economy, they recognize stupidity when right in front of them but generally leave the big picture to others). All understood Pakistan was the core problem. Politicians weren’t so much misleading as asking others to participate in a kind of collective wishful thinking. Mid-level leadership assessed progress using physical and human terrain, but goals often conflicted (new outpost could yield tactical advantages but might anger locals). Tried issuing ID cards and food pickups to provide humanitarian assistance directly to villagers and collect intelligence.
Combat infantry carry the most, eat the worst, die the fastest, and sleep the least. But they’re the real soldiers, the only ones conducting “war” in its most classic sense, and everyone knows it. Others requested short assignments at Restrepo to claim combat action badges.
Firefights were exciting. Based on reaction times, you can try to literally dodge bullets around 800 yards. But heart rates above 145 BPM begin to diminish complex motor skills. Multi-day missions often involve little or no sleep. Fear correlates less with danger than from feeling of control (pilots less fear than turret gunners). Despite army dress regulations, would go through entire firefights from the outpost in nothing but gym shorts and unlaced boots, cigarettes hanging out of their lips. Downtime was unbearably boring. Passed time through raunchy humor and beating each other bloody. Much of day-to-day involved carrying heavy machinery up mountains (“exhaustion is a state of mind”).
Brief period of transition with replacements. Most casualties occur in the first few months of a deployment because the new men don’t know where they’re getting shot at from and the mortar teams don’t know what hilltops to hit. In 2009, the US realigned forces away from remote outposts toward larger bases near population centers, but led to several Taliban attempts to overrun the outposts.
After leaving, missed a world where everything is important and nothing is taken for granted. Longed for the brotherhood and shared commitment to safeguard one another’s lives. The willingness to jump on grenade runs contrary to evolution, but perhaps driven by societal value of courage. Civilian life felt foreign—Army never taught them how to get a job, find an apartment, or arrange a doctor’s appointment. In Afghanistan, almost every problem could get settled by getting violent faster than the other guy—but doesn’t translate well.
Generally, start with your characters authentic/credible and build to the absurd. Don’t make your character dumber than he should be. Characters should: KNOW what they’re doing, CARE about whatever the main issues of the scene happen to be, and SAY how they feel about things.
Commit to your character, but be ready to adjust based on partner (keep voice/physicality, but agree with the new direction). Improv is more about confidence than accuracy. Pause after you reveal; embrace silence while words are absorbed.
The key to funny is surprise: give the answer we didn’t think of; react with an emotion we didn’t expect; care more than we predicted; be more specific than necessary. Once you have something funny, you ask, “If this is true, then what else is true?”
Yes And
Yin is passive, patient, empathetic, malleable. It is akin to a “yes.”
Yang is active, assertive, decisive, altering. It is akin to an “and.”
Fights are so tricky that teachers generally tell beginners to avoid them completely.
In argument, try taking the wrong side and defend it as best you can.
Reject solutions that try to get rid of the unusual thing. Don’t let the straight man win.
Doing what you are told not to do is saying yes, and often fun.
Be present. There’s no point in planning ahead, because everything is constantly changing.
Step-sister killed by tired driver, ex-girlfriend died in heart surgery, rugby teammates killed by a drunk driver. Began studying meditation at 22. Founded Headspace in 2010.
Most who seek mindfulness aren’t looking for spiritual enlightenment and don’t need therapy. They just want to know how to switch off after work, fall asleep at night, and feel less anxious. Someday, meditation will be as normal as taking a walk (like Yoga, or normal body exercise). Recommend morning so doesn’t weigh as another “thing to do.” Quality is more important than quantity.
Meditation is a technique to enable mindfulness. It actually changes the structure of the brain (“neuroplasticity”). Emotions aren’t the problem; how we react to them matters.
Analogies for approach: Watching traffic, blue sky, training wild horse, avoiding hole, juggling, ripples in pond.
Standard Meditation (“Take10”):
Get comfortable, calm. Best if sitting upright in a chair.
Close eyes, scan down body
Focus attention on “primary support” (recommend using breath)
Visualization, then let mind go free briefly
Bring back to physical sensation, gently open eyes
Integrate into life: Eating (slowly), Walking (slowly), Running, Sleeping (scan, replay, “switch off”).
Grew up with parents and older brother in Great Aunt’s second floor in South Shore Chicago. Hard-working parents were stern and practical but gave children independence. “Miche” followed Craig to Princeton, then on to Harvard Law and Chicago firm Sidley & Austin. First test she ever failed was the bar (passed second time). Mentored a highly-touted 1L summer associate Barack Obama; continued long-distance for two years.
Lost a close friend to cancer at 26; father died of MS complications at 55. After finishing the bar, Barack instigated argument over marriage, then proposed with dessert. Looking for more meaningful work, informational interviews introduced to Valerie Jarett. Worked for Mayor Richard M. Daley, Public Allies (TFA-like), University of Chicago, and Chicago Medical Center.
In 1996, Barack was elected to the state senate. After several months and one miscarriage, they decided on in vitro fertilization she became pregnant with Malia. Barack’s work as a state legislator kept him away from the family for most of the week; marriage counseling helped them navigate his absence. To his credit, Barack stayed in HI to help care for sick Malia and missed a key vote on a crime bill. Barak great at compartmentalizing, always was present and engaged with the family.
Had three person staff for campaigning, close to a hundred once First Lady (scheduling, cooking, clothes, hair, makeup, policy, etc). Worked three days per week as first lady. Devised “Let’s Move” initiative to encourage better eating habits and exercise for kids; led to the creation of a federal task force on childhood obesity, a promise from corporate suppliers to reduce salt, sugar and fat in school lunches and a 60 Minutes of Play a Day campaign supported by professional sports leagues. In 2010, Congress passed a new child nutrition bill. Also drew attention to violence in Chicago and wounded veterans.
At White House, no rent but received an itemized monthly bill for every food item and roll of toilet paper.
Grew weary of Secret Service detail, focused on giving her daughter’s as normal an upbringing as possible (let Malia’s prom date pick her up at WH). Got the second dog to help deflect attention away from Malia and Sasha. Snuck out of bedroom after Supreme Court gay marriage ruling to see WH lit up.
-Probably written 400-320 BC, the “thirteen chapters” probably measured over 60ft long. Previously, war was ritualistic melees which produced no decisive results, but the Era of Eight Warring States saw the introduction of the cross-bow and high-quality iron. Warfare would not change again for hundreds of years (besides the introduction of cavalry). In the 1930s, Mao was defeated in conventional battle, conducted “Long March” to north-west China. Quoted Tzu’s “Know your enemy and know yourself” and used superior intelligence and deception to lure Chaing Kai Shek into Manchuria and beat him.
-War is shouldn’t be undertaken recklessly and deserves rational analysis of mental, moral, physical, and circumstantial factors. Key elements are: moral influence, weather, terrain, command, and doctrine.
All warfare is based on deception; the primary target is the mind of the opposing commander. Speed is the essence of war; at first be quiet and then strike quickly; no nation benefits from protracted war. Strike only when the situation assures victory; retreats are designed to unbalance the enemy for a decisive counter-stroke. Maintain the initiative by keeping the enemy guessing where you will bring battle. Just as water adapts itself to the conformation of the ground, so in war one must be flexible. Don’t repeat tactics or become predictable. Based on numerical matchup: surround (10x), attack (5x), divide (2x), engage (1:1), withdraw (.5x). To capture an enemy’s army is better than to destroy it. Other details (e.g. wait for half enemy to cross river, then attack).
Oleg Gordievsky’s KGB father fiercely loyal to Stalin, older brother was KIA as KGB illegal and operative. Mother silently disapproved of Kremlin skullduggery, and Oleg built animus towards communism during Berlin Wall construction (1961) and crackdown of Prague Spring (1968). On first assignment to Copenhagen, intrigued by free society, bought gay porn magazines; Danish intelligence tried to honeytrap him for blackmail but failed (wasn’t gay). MI6 sent college friend (Czech intelligence defector) as litmus test, then approached while playing badminton and began delicate courtship. Gordievsky was so calm they were worried he was a dangle and let the case sit 8 months before explicitly pitching.
Initial stipulations: no recording, naming names, or payment (eventually, accepted all 3). Deemed cameras too risky, but copied microfilm cables from Moscow. West had to measure reactions to ensure didn’t give away source (arrested spies in Norway, but not Denmark). Began affair with Russian WHO secretary Leila. Upon return to Moscow, divorce set back KGB career and lost all contact for three years, but MI6 monitored Red Square weekly in case wanted to do brush drop or initiate exfiltration (PIMLICO). KGB had 1,500 men for internal surveillance in Moscow alone. Learned English and found position London. MI6 officers would harass known KGB by announcing over speaker at department stores, “would Victor Muskovy of KGB Ltd. Please come to the front desk?” In preparation, learned Labour leader Michael Foot (Agent BOOT) had accepted KGB payments as an agent of influence—MI6 decided too political incendiary to tell Thatcher.
Unprecedentedly, MI6 now had to collaborate with MI5, which handled surveillance of KGB in UK. MI6 provided Gordievsky contacts to provide “chicken feed” intel to support KGB career prospects. When Gordievsky’s direct KGB boss in London dampened his prospects, the UK declared him persona non grata and removed. CIA Russia lead Burton Gerber was impressed by the quality of political intelligence MI6 shared, but frustrated they wouldn’t identify the source, so he appointed an assessment of who it could be, and the task fell to Aldrich Ames. Two weeks before Gordievsky was promoted to rezident London, Ames volunteered for the KGB.
KGB Chief Andropov believed US was preparing preemptive strike and obsessed with finding evidence of it (Operation RYAN). Accidental Soviet Shoot down of Korean airline, followed by ABLE ARCHER exercise, moved KGB to frenzy; ordered stations to watch for evacuation of UK elites (revealing USSR’s own priorities). Gordievsky’s intel coached Thatcher on how to approach Soviet leaders like Gorbachev and provided real time feedback on their reactions.
Ames leaked 25+ names including Gordievsky, but KGB CI lead wanted to catch in act. KGB called him back to Moscow, and put under heavy surveillance. Impatient, took him to dacha and tried to extract confession using alcohol and truth serum. Remembering advice from Philby, focused all energy on denying and advised interrogators of Stalin-era false accusations. KGB recalled Gordievsky’s family from London. On third try, Gordievsky successfully signaled PIMLICO and shook surveillance to buy a ticket to Leningrad. Finland sought to remain neutral and asked not to be informed of any escapes until after. MI6 station chief Ascot’s wife feigned bad back to explain trip to Finland. In finals days in Moscow, Gordievsky hurriedly made plans to divert KGB attention, and mockingly called friend to recommend he read short story about spy who escapes Russia to UK. New UK Ambassador opposed operation, but Thatcher personally approved.
By trains and bus, Gordievsky arrived at border 4hr early, had a drink at a bar to wait. MI6 chief driving narrowly evaded KGB surveillance cars. Border crossing aided by Ascot’s wife’s spontaneous idea to drop cheese onion chips and change baby diaper, throwing off dogs. Met MI6 and Danish intelligence in Finland, crossed into Norway and flew to UK for final debriefs. Ames debriefed defector Yurchenko who warned Gordievsky was under arrest and so CIA warned MI6, not knowing he had already escaped. MI6 briefed D/CIA Casey and Gerber on the case and escape. UK offered secret trade for Gordievsky family but KGB declined so went public with story and 31 diplomats were expelled from each embassy. Vladimir Putin’s KGB group took some blame for haphazard surveillance. After KGB attempted coup six years later, leadership was purged and new chief allowed Leila and girls to go to London, but marriage still fell apart. Gordievsky lives alone under pseudonym and MI6 protection near London.
Born into poverty, Graham received offers to reach in mathematics, philosophy, and English, before choosing Wall Street. Despite losing nearly 70% in the 1929 crash, he thrived in the aftermath and gained at least 14.7% annually from 1936-56. Originally published 1949, then 1973; Jason Zweig commentary from 2003. Key Principles:
A stock is ownership of an actual business with a value that does not depend on share price.
Do your homework: Do not pick stocks without doing extensive research of companies and balance books. Buy stock of companies with increasing values—never simply because its stock price has been going up. Market growth doesn’t always mean profitability (e.g. airlines—OR UBER). Good security analysts look at a company’s long-term prospects, quality of management, financial strength and capital structure, dividend record and current dividend rate. More detail in Chapters 11-15.
Diversify: While nearly all the richest people in America trace their wealth to a concentrated investment in a single industry (Bill Gates, Sam Walton), almost no small fortunes have been made this way—and few big fortunes have been kept this way. Stocks have done better than bonds over time, but never own more than 75% of either (DISAGREE). With index funds, stocks are not necessarily more “risky.”
Funds: So-called “performance funds” rarely outperform index funds over time due to migrating managers, rising expenses, and sheepish behavior. The best professional advisors are modest in their promises; do due diligence before hiring.
Be an active shareholder: As an owner of a company, the CEO works for you. Rather than being a blind sheep, review proxy statements and keep CEO pay in check.
The market is a pendulum which swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism.
Warning on “Timing”: Even top experts fail at trying to “time” transactions, and often get it backwards (EXCEPT HFT ARBITRAGE). Loss sensitivity means many people sell near bottom or refuse to buy more.
Think independently: Foresight has little value if others already expect the same.
No investor can ever eliminate the risk of being wrong, but by never overpaying, you can minimize your odds of error.
Margin of Safety: It’s hard to recover from big losses, so be sure you never pay too much for an investment by ensuring you have realistically assessed your probability of being right as well as how you will react to the consequences of being wrong.
Avoid speculation: Like casino betting, speculating can be fun but is the worst way to invest. Investing isn’t about beating others at their game, but controlling yourself at your own game.
The biggest obstacle is your own instinct and emotion. But if you invest with patience, confidence, and discipline—and temper your expectations—you will succeed.
Focus on what you can control: costs, expectations, risk, tax, and your own behavior. Auto-invest and dollar-cost averaging help you guard against yourself.
Expectations: Be prepared to see your stocks fluctuate in value over the years. Welcome a bear market because it puts stocks back on sale.
The Road to Character was overly focused on individualism. By conceiving of ourselves mostly as autonomous selves, we’ve torn our society to shreds, opened up loneliness, division, and tribalism, come to worship individual status and self-sufficiency, and covered over what is most beautiful in each human heart and soul.
Rise of Selfism: Starting in the 1960s, the narrative was to be liberated from dogma, political oppression, social prejudice, and group conformity. Included both political left (hippies) and right (deregulation). Commencement addresses tell you to “be yourself” but are bereft of real advice. This leads to either aesthetic life (awesome Instagram) or insecure overachievers (high-performing overachievers), but no real contributions. When given the choice, most people prefer community over self (colonials defected to live with Native Americans, not vice versa).
Metaphor (not always in this order):
First Mountain: Individualism, career success, social status, personal happiness (e.g. home, family, vacations).
Valley: Often unexpected event (e.g. death of child, cancer scare). Changes perspective and motivations. Our defining experiences are rarely vacations, but moments of struggle.
Second Mountain: Commitment and recommitment to something, which gives purpose and true character.
Vocation: Career is for ego/money, but vocation arises from “annunciation moment” when some injustice demands an active response. Ask yourself: What do I enjoy talking about? When have I felt most needed? What pains am I willing to tolerate? What would I do if I weren’t afraid?
Marriage: Stages of love: Look, curiosity, dialogue, combustion, crisis, forgiveness, fusion. Strong partners would rather be in turmoil with each other than tranquility alone. Ask yourself: Would I enjoy talking to this person for the rest of my life? Do I admire this person?
Create habits to reinforce commitment; develop situational awareness for what partner needs. Over-demonstrate love languages (words of affirmation, acts of service, gifts, quality time, physical touch) and avoid Four Horseman (contempt, criticism, defensiveness, stonewalling).
Every relationship has a foundational issue which won’t go away (e.g. money). Classic crises: After children (redirect love to them), and mid-life crisis. When people with experience anxious attachment styles fall in love, their bodies tell them their lover is about to leave, and thus avoid loving relationships.
Faith: Best to worship something outside yourself (if you worship intelligence, you’ll never be smart enough; if you worship material possessions, you’ll never have enough, etc). Human beings’ primary motive is not money or happiness, but meaning. Religion helps address whole person (heart and soul as well as body and mind).
You can’t always control your life but you can control your response to what is imposed upon you. Healing is moving from your pain to the pain.
Warning: When society’s values stray from those of a religion, the pious often adopt a “siege mentality” of collective victimhood which provides a straightforward way to interpret the world: the noble us versus the powerful and sinful them. This is no longer humble faith but fighting culture wars.
Community: The good neighbor invites others over for dinner, thinks about their community long-term, focuses on the least well off. To create “thick institutions,” need to call attention to traits in common, exploit synchrony (e.g. sing songs together), and develop healthy competition in teams—not individuals. Brooks now runs the Aspen Institute’s Weave: The Social Fabric Project highlighting people restoring social capital and healing lives.
-South Bend’s Studebaker plant was the largest vehicle factory in the world until 1963 closing; houses now $60K. Notre Dame students lean conservative, though humanities faculty (e.g. parents) overwhelmingly liberal. Won Harvard Essay contest writing about Bernie Sanders’ dedication to socialism; leveraged into DC internship with Ted Kennedy. At Harvard, lived in Ulysses Grant Jr.’s room; wrote thesis on Vietnam War. Criticizes both parties post-9/11. Studied piano, then guitar.
-Rhodes Scholarship to Oxford (philosophy), McKinsey based in Chicago (grocery prices, etc.)—learned but didn’t care. Enlisted in Navy in 2009 because elites served less than his neighbors (difficult process: recruiter recorded minor as aerobics instead of Arabic, assumed would be sworn in at parade ground, but instead signed papers at a Big Boy diner).
-Ran for Indiana Treasurer in 2010 because incumbent opposed Chrysler bailout. Lone intern joined him with “MEET PETE” sign, police stopped to ensure wasn’t unauthorized demonstration. In mayoral campaign, discovered youth actually played well and ethnically ambiguous name was asset in Midwest (large Eastern European population).
-As mayor, managed ~1,000 employees and ~100,000 residents. Promised to confront 1,000 abandoned houses in 1,000 days—put scorecard online. Installed WiFi in sewers to detect blockages and activate smart valves. Facilitated town-gown by having neuroscience students hold sessions with locals on addiction/trauma. Opened 311 to provide service but also collect data. ShotSpotter technology used microphones to acoustically pinpoint gunshots. Weighed responsiveness and efficiency in snow plowing and graffiti. Governor Pence initially provided economic funding, but relationship unraveled after focus on bill legalizing discrimination of LGBTQ.
-In deployment, was intel but more often needed leading VIP convoys around Kabul. For every day of rocket attacks there were five of just meetings and working out. End dates of wars are not always clear (WWI armistice 11/11/18 signed 5am but took effect at 11—thousands of casualties later). On the way home, three days in rural Germany with classes to help adjusting to normal life.
-Came out to close friends, parents, then in a newspaper article. Within a year, met Chasten on Hinge. Chasten suffered period of homelessness when came out; now close to parents and has Jif tattoo (how his father measured success). Proposed in O’Hare airport; have dog named Truman (“if you want a friend in Washington, get a dog”).
-Despite controversy for demoting popular black police chief who recorded conversations of subordinates to blackmail them, won re-election. Ran for DNC chairman on a whim because believed he transcended the internal struggle between establishment and new left. Democrats were overly focused on White House, neglecting the industrial Midwest, and failing to use think tanks like GOP.
Supermarkets have more than 30,000 items, colleges offer over 40 majors, TV options are endless, increased job mobility and dating options. In abstract, choice is essential for autonomy and let us maximize utility, but empirically, many Americans are feeling less satisfied (or even psychologically distressed) as their freedom of choice expands. Reasons:
Effort/Exhaustion: Requires endless research/analysis of tradeoffs, and we’re more likely to make mistakes (e.g. “tyranny of small decisions”)
Maximizers: We put more pressure on ourselves to pick the absolute best, and blame ourselves for failure.
Regret/Opportunity Cost: Regularly run negative counterfactuals, but create negative emotional reactions which further impair our decision-making ability.
Social Comparison/Status Concern: We measure ourselves against others, especially those better off than us.
Hedonic Adaptation: As we adapt—as the novelty wears off—pleasure comes to be replaced by comfort, resulting in disappointment.
Related Paradox: The majority of people want more control over the details of their lives, but a majority of people also want to simplify their lives. Humans are remarkably bad at predicting how various experiences will make them feel. Availability, anchoring, framing, prospect theory, endowment effect, loss aversion, etc.
Recommendations:
Use rules, presumptions, standards, and routines to limit the decisions we face so that we can focus time and energy on the most important (e.g. no more than two stores when shopping for clothing)
Be a Satisficer not a Maximizer: Learning to accept “good enough” will simplify decision making and increase satisfaction. Unless you’re truly dissatisfied, stick with what you always buy. Don’t be tempted by “new and improved.” Don’t “scratch” unless there’s an “itch.”
Make Decisions Nonreversible (e.g. there’s always greener grass, but picking a life partner is not a matter of comparison shopping and “trading up”)
Practice an Attitude of Gratitude: Curtail social comparison and reflect on how much worse it could be.
Keep expectations modest (e.g. keep wonderful experiences rare, save wine for special occasions)
Anticipate Adaptation: Acknowledge the thrill of new things will dissipate over time.
-Types of Memory:
Episodic: Specific events, including context (e.g. you ate spaghetti)
Semantic: General knowledge (e.g. 5 x 4 = 20)
Sensory: An impression of a sensory stimulus
Iconic: Visual (~1 second)
Echoic: Auditory (~4 seconds)
Haptic: Tactile (needs more research)
Smell/Taste fade for chemical reasons
-Memory Systems (how we make memories/learn):
Declarative Memory
Working: Temporary storage, mental workspace, and feeds info into long-term (like your desk in a library)
Phonological Loop: ability to recall and repeat a sound (i.e. echoic)
Visual-Spatial Sketchpad: recreate and explore a place or object (i.e. iconic)
Long-Term: Repository of memories/facts (like the stacks in a library)
Non-Declarative Memory
Implicit: Memories encoded by repeated experience within some context but without any explicit attempt to learn (e.g. grammar, music, etiquette).
Procedural: Muscle memory of a physical routine (well-formed procedural memories become habits).
-Lifespan/Disorders: Have implicit memories (e.g. mother’s voice when in womb), but earliest episodic memories around 3 years old. Cognitive transition: Older people focus less on details (episodic memory), but think more about big picture. Also more tired in evenings (but often more alert in morning). Amnesia can be retrograde (no old memories) or anterograde (inability to form new memories). Brain damage, amnesia, agnosia, and other disorders can impact memory systems differently. Alzheimer’s usually arrives after 60 and lasts 7-14 years (will include “blacking in” moments). Difficult to diagnose/handle but working on cognitive prosthetics to help.
-Brain/Science: All parts of the brain serve roles in memory; neural network models and fMRI research are helping to map. Using therapy to recover “repressed” memories is controversial; especially in a legal context. Animals clearly have procedural (e.g. fetch) and ~semantic (e.g. run when hear food), but working and episodic are less clear.
-Every time we “remember” something, we are reconstructing from both episodic and semantic memory. Memory decays exponentially, with most losses right away. Working operates like conveyor belt (correlates with time). We tend to remember beginnings and endings best (primacy and recency, respectively). Poor memory more often an encoding failure than retrieval; though interference (proactive or retroactive) and/or lack of retrieval cues can cause retrieval failure.
-To improve memory:
Organize, associate, and use multiple coding to attach new information to existing structures:
Prioritize, take notes, and talk about with others
Memory Palace (“Loci”): Imagine in familiar place/routine; can proxy bizarre images
Mnemonic: Rhymes, songs, acronyms, and other tricks
Chunking: Grouping items together
Deep Encoding: assign items a quality (e.g. good/bad); increase relevance
Prospective (e.g. remembering things to do later): Imagine yourself doing the task
Match State: Match retrieval internal/external state (e.g. location, mood) to that of encoding
Rote Learning: Memorization through repetition.
General:
Exercise memory: Crosswords good but try learning skills/hobbies (e.g. dance) which incorporate sensory/implicit as well.
Sleep: May help consolidate encoded memories. Eat rich, dark fruits.
-Improving one type of memory may come at the expense of another type. Further, remembering everything can be a curse (‘S’). Changing a habit generally takes 66 days (requires declarative to overtake nondeclarative). PTSD requires us to remove deep encoding (working on pharmaceuticals).
School doesn’t equip us for the major life decisions we make (e.g. spouse, kids, career, moving), and thus we often act on impulse or shortsightedness.
Mapping: Gather diverse perspectives (may want to interview separately). Recognize uncertainty (Bezos decides when uncertainty under 30%). Think creatively (only 15% of people seek out options beyond those initially presented to them).
Predicting: Humans are bad at predicting. Modern techniques use simulations and probabilities. Harder to apply to social science, but use war-games/red teams to identify new scenarios. Heuristic techniques like premortem.
Deciding: Cost-Benefit analysis and weighted models. Don’t focus exclusively on the most likely outcome. Favor paths that allow “downstream flexibility.” Combine science and humanities (reading fiction helps you understand the emotional/social/financial threads to major decisions.
Agile Manifesto: people over processes, collaborating with customers, and responding to change.
Scrum (“invented” 1993) is about getting constant feedback from Customers, improving product and reducing risk.
Teams: Need a sense of purpose, be autonomous/self-organizing, cross-functional, and 3-9 people.
Scrum Master looks to eliminate obstacles and guide the process toward continuous improvement.
Product Owner understands the customer and market; has decision authority and accountability.
Don’t blame people, blame the process. Within the team, remove job titles.
After each sprint, conduct simple happiness surveys and fix largest complaint to keep morale up.
Sprints: Humans are lousy at focus (can’t multi-task) and awful at predicting how long things will take
At the end of each sprint, deliver what you have to the customer.
Daily Standup: everyone must be there and can’t last more than 15 minutes.
Measure output—not hours (a cost).
PDCA Cycle (Plan, Do, Check, Act). OODA Cycle (Observe, Orient, Decision, Action). At most companies, as much as 85% of effort is wasted. 80% of the value of a software is in 20% of its features (need to identify the 20% ASAP).
-Actual Name: Hiram Ulysses Grant. Nicknames: HUG, Sam (Uncle Sam), Buck (Ohio). Father applied to West Point for him; good at horses/painting, bad at engineering/French, finished 21st out of 39. Met Julia near Saint Louis, left blanks in love letters because couldn’t express feelings.
-Skeptical of aggressive Mexican American War, but respected Generals Taylor and Scott. Quartermaster role taught importance of logistics; fought alongside Bobby Lee at Mexico City. Had been in temperance movement, but loneliness prompted drinking when deployed to San Francisco sans Julia and kids. Left Army, returned to Saint Louis and tried as farmer, store clerk, leather merchant.
Helped recruit troops for the Union, but still looking for job when fighting started (finally named Colonel for volunteer regiment and quickly promoted to General but couldn’t afford a uniform/horse). A poor speaker, led not with shouting but with written orders and courage in battle. Rocketed to fame for aggressively taking two forts which set up Union invasion of TN. Nearly fired when traitorous telegram operator dropped messages, causing Halleck to believe him insubordinate. Shiloh: Day 1 Union defended, Day 2 they had advantage. Newspapers printed misinformation (e.g. Grant was drinking in his cot much of the battle), but William Tecumseh Sherman and Lincoln remained advocates. Had to contend with growing guerilla activity, insubordinate troops, and illicit trade for southern cotton.
-Never comfortable on defense, Grant’s Mississippi campaign stood in contrast to tentativeness from Buell and McClellan. Worked in tandem with naval gunboats. Grant’s father (and Jewish associates) tried to use him to advance business interests, prompting a frustrated Grant to issue a bizarre and controversial order banning Jews from his Department (would haunt him later). Bold strategy in Vicksburg: ran navy past batteries, staged two cavalry diversions, and entire army went south of city and crossed Mississippi (had to move downriver when first attempt failed). Ended with 47-day siege; captured nearly 30,000 prisoners. Concentrated troops and moved quickly. Largest amphibious operation until WWII. Promoted to run all Western command and (despite injury from a horse fall) helped break siege at Chattanooga.
-Congress made first Lt Gen since Washington, perhaps to heed off presidential bid (Grant indifferent). Stationed Halleck in DC so he could stay in the field. Outnumbered Lee 2:1 in Overland Campaign; Grant’s aggressiveness matched by Lee’s desire to delay and inflict casualties. [Cold Harbor named for tavern with cold food]. 293 day siege of Petersburg and Richmond, Thomas won in TN, Sherman matched to the sea. Magnanimous at Appomattox. 750,000 total died in war. Grant was introvert (preferred carefully-prepared written commands, dreaded small talk, good listener, avoided conflict–though strong moral compass, sensitive especially toward mistreatment of women or animals)
-Andrew Johnson was only southern senator to remain loyal to the union. but was so unpopular as president, he created own National Unity Party. When Grant refused to accept a post in Mexico, Johnson named him Secretary of War, trying to exploit his popularity; but Grant continued Stanton’s policies. Conviction in protecting black rights grew. Concluded acceptance of the Republican nomination: “Let us have peace.” Like Lincoln in 1860, choose not to campaign, instead traveling the West. At 46, was youngest president (until Teddy). 13yo daughter Nellie left her seat during inauguration to stand next to Grant during his speech.
As President, Grant erred in appointing friends for cabinet over merit. James Longstreet was Grant’s groomsman, fought against him, then appointed to federal position. Helped reduce the debt from a “staggering” $2.8B, reformed treatment of Native Americans. In foreign policy, battled the Senate to annex Santo Domingo (overreached) and reconciled with Britain following Confederate naval support. Mounted campaign against newly formed KKK under Confederate Gen Forrest. Easily re-elected. Responded to Panic of 1873 by refusing to print more greenbacks. But second term soon plagued by scandals, including his personal assistant (Babcock) and Secretary of War (Belknap). Grant never interfered in investigations, but personal loyalty which he valued in the military became blind spot as president. He didn’t understand how powerful Washington would corrupt and avoided confrontation, especially with social friends. Showed strong leadership and political maturity in handling the contested election of 1877.
-After leaving office, spent 26 months traveling Europe and Asia. Won praise for modesty and thoughtfulness—tried to de-escalate conflict between China and Japan. A journalist traveled with him, sharing his meetings letters with the US audience, which was only now getting to know the quiet leader well. Considered again for a third term (not banned until after FDR), but instead helped Shiloh veteran Garfield win narrow victory. Grant swindled son’s friend Ward into Ponzi scheme and lost his several hundred thousand dollars, insisted on repaying his debt to Vanderbilt by giving all his historical memorabilia.
-Longtime friend Mark Twain won the publication contract for Grant’s memoirs, on which he labored until his death of throat cancer in 1885. Funeral procession included 37,000 union and former Confederate troops—a much-needed show of north/south unity. Julia, sustained financially by the $450,000 made off Grant’s memoirs, went on to befriend Jefferson Davis’ widow.
Became a small-town lawyer in New Jersey, waiting for the FBI to begin hiring. Parents and boss tried to talk him out of 50% pay cut, but wife supported. Early mishaps: arrested wrong person, recused himself when recognized wedding guest in investigation. Started working Russian organized crime in NYC field office in 1996. Mob investigations didn’t produce favorable “stats” (## arrests, indictments, convictions), but used “Enterprise Theory” to root out large criminal organizations. FBI has largest pool of human sources in USG; confidential informants never testify, cooperating witnesses do.
On 9/11, waited with SWAT team to make arrests which never came. “Lead pool” managed off USS Intrepid carrier. Received thousands of tips, held some detainees for six months before building system to process them. Moved to LX/NCTC, became CT unit chief for ROW, worked London cases. Initially chased every single lead (“muscling”), then became more strategic about risk tolerance (“targeting”). Sometimes lucky (bombs failed in 2009 Xmas plane and 2010 Times Square car). Mueller appointed to lead Obama-mandated High-Value Detainee Interrogation Group (HIG) to combine best practices of CIA (homework), DoD (organizational skills), and FBI (interrogational skills)—focused on rapport. Oversaw 2013 Boston Bombing as A/D CT, breaks were camera footage and crowdsourcing. Had received 2011 FSB tip on Tamerlan but never any specifics; learned to stay ahead of press (as did in 2016 Pulse shooting).
Ran WFO, and became Deputy Director to oversee Clinton email investigation (run out of HQ). Mills inexplicably deleted 30K personal emails, though FBI meticulously recovered many from server slack; Pete Strzok led analysis and unfortunately held pen in change from “grossly negligent” to “extremely careless.” FBI viewed Justice’s caution as political, Justice viewed FBI as reckless (FBI HQ’s brutalist architecture represents the instrumental aspects of justice, whereas classical/art deco Main Justice represents the ideal). Spurred by Clinton/Lynch meeting, gambled on Comey’s status as great communicator for July press conference (regretted in hindsight, should have let DOJ take hit). Comey alone decided to announce re-opening following Weiner indictment. Under pressure relating to McCabe’s wife’s VA Senate bid, Comey asked him to recuse. Following Comey firing, suddenly became Director, Trump/Sessions gauged for loyalty/tried to hastily arrange FBI visit. McCabe talked to FBI Inspection Division (INSD) on Circa News Leak, as well as WSJ article—did not immediately admit authorizing leak, later voluntarily corrected record [what was fired and now indicted for]. FBI derives power from federal law and executive orders and specific AG guidelines which Trump regularly violated in tweets and actions (e.g. calling the FBI Director directly). In six months as Director, convinced Rosenstein to appoint special counsel for Russia investigation. During “interview” for Director, McCabe told Trump he would help transition, but hoped to retire in March 2018. Once loyalty was denied, Trump ensured he was fired—26 hours before reached eligibility for benefits.
Have only had one Agent Director. Mueller had strict habits and boundaries (prosecutorial manner, suit & tie, never went to bar). On link charts, detested diagonal lines and bright colors. On first day, Comey, pushed briefing books to the side and talked about building relationships.
There is no convincing anyone of anything on Capitol Hill; everyone walks in with pre-drafted talking points and questions. More theater than fact-finding.
Sessions routinely confused classified intelligence with news clips and seemed exclusively focused on immigration status. Trump hung a picture of electoral college outside the Oval Office.
NBC offered Jerry Seinfeld show, but direction set by observational standup friend Larry David. George stand-in for David, Kramer David’s old hallmate, Elaine added for estrogen. Pilot was panned, but kept alive in the NBC Specials Department, which allowed more leeway to differ from other sitcoms (lower lighting, single camera, improvised stage directions, slap bass). Filmed in LA but footage includes Tom’s Restaurant in NYC. Studio audience had ~200-person audience and taping could take 2-3 hours with warm-up comedian, reshoots, and breaks. Chinese restaurant episode established unique identity and secured full 22-episode third season. Nearly every plot line (Soup Nazi, Festivus, etc.) is based on real events that happened to people the writers knew. Friends took similar concept but prioritized emotions rather than purely humor. Nine total seasons (180 episodes) 1989-98, David left after season 6 but came back for the finale. Seinfeld turned down $110M to leave on top. Never did movie, but did reunite for 2009 episode of Curb your Enthusiasm.
Assorted vignettes of–as advertised–glory, marketing, and scandal:
Coaching: Mike Leach never played football but designed explosive offense at Texas Tech (e.g. spread O-line). Fired for locking concussed student in dark shed during practice. Hired to revitalize Washington State University, and despite more complaints of spraying players in sand pits, survived a PAC-12 investigation into abuse of players. Held practices 10pm-12am (not 6am) to match actual game times. Nick Saban optimizes every second of Alabama practice, demands perfection (hand ON line), maintains a 50+ staff with emphasis on conditioning and uses a litany of guest speakers to support players in all assets of life.
Women: TN coach Lane Kiffin aggressively used female collegiate “hostesses” to lure (flirt with) HS recruits, but fled to USC when NCAA began investigating. UT-Austin strip clubs welcome players as VIPs; BYU players acquitted of gang rape (“suffered enough because they lost their scholarships”). Missouri running back slept with multiple assigned “tutors” until convicted for assaulting another while she slept.
Brand/Donors: Former Domino’s CEO, Michigan AD Dave Brandon worked to protect brand above all, instilling night games and diminishing marching band. Hedge fund manager T. Boone Pickens single-handedly turned around Oklahoma State’s football program with a $248M donation (largest ever) for stadium, facilities, etc. Second largest is Phil Knight (Nike) to Oregon.
Recruitment: Increasingly popular 7v7 tournaments identify high school talent. NCAA focused primarily on illicit recruitment. Without due process, investigators can be overzealous, interviewing athletes over and over again to harp on small inconsistencies (e.g. Ohio State investigation of overpayment). Ghanaian-born “Ziggy” Ansah didn’t understand the rules of football but walked onto BYU special teams and earned scholarship by senior year (was later drafted by the Lions).
Injuries: 56% of college football alumni report suffering “debilitating” injuries which continue to haunt them in adulthood. Of the 282 season-ending injuries in 2012, 68% were lower body (mostly knee). There is a sharp uptake in injuries in October due to fatigue and misguided conditioning.
Discipline: In 2012, 197 players were arrested, fewer than 25% were kicked off the team. Worst responses: Notre Dame declined to investigate an accused sexual assault which victim committed suicide (yet hired multiple PIs to stay ahead of Manti Te’o catfish). Penn State continually covered for Jerry Sandusky assault.
People don’t appreciate the importance of a functional government until they live in a failed state. The federal government exists at a level of complexity that most people can’t be bothered to understand. USG employs 2M people (70% involved in national security) taking orders from 4,000 political appointees. They are hamstrung by rigorous hiring policies and poor/non-existent public relations. Some of the risks of government inept are easy to imagine: a financial crisis, a hurricane, a terrorist attack. The fifth risk is “program management”: the existential threat that you never really even imagine as a risk…It is the innovation that never occurs and the knowledge that is never created, because you have ceased to lay the groundwork for it. It is what you never learned that might have saved you.”
Trump didn’t want a presidential transition team and denigrated Chris Christie for spending campaign money which he considered, effectively, his own. Kushner (whose father had been prosecuted by Christie) eventually had him fired. Trump transition personnel did not materialize until shortly before inauguration and regularly skipped the conventional knowledge transfer meetings, requesting only lists of employees believing in climate change. Trump defunded key items (e.g. ARPA-E, weather satellites) and willfully eliminated vast troves of public data. RNC interns and long-haul truck drivers were put into $80K USDA positions. Under each act of data suppression usually lay a narrow commercial motive: a gun lobbyist, a coal company, a poultry company (e.g. Accuweather CEO tried to suppress NOAA open source data to drive up profits). Trump reflects a moment when tribal bumper stickers pass for politics and ignorance and grievance drive policy.
Paradox: Humans have innate desire to feel spiritual connection to others (e.g. communitas), but we often try to acquire it by fitting in and seeking approval, which are not only hollow substitutes for belonging, but often barriers to it. True belonging only happens when we present our authentic, imperfect selves to the world. Belonging to ourselves means being called to stand alone—to brave the wilderness of uncertainty, vulnerability, and criticism.
Avoid stereotyping, dehumanizing, “us-v-them” mentality. Emotions like anger are often mask for fear or shame. Embrace difficult conversations by saying “tell me more/help me understand why this is so important to you.” Practice listening and apologizing without disclaimers and exemptions. Social media/technology helps logistics of making connections but we still need face-to-face interaction. Vulnerability reflects courage more than weakness. We don’t need to be experts on every issue.
BRAVING Framework: Boundaries (if unsure, ask); Reliability (don’t overpromise); Accountability (apologize for mistakes); Vault (keep confidential); Integrity (courage over comfort); Non-judgment (can be honest); Generosity (assume generous intentions of others)
US journalist Daniloff’s great great grandfather participated in 1825 “Decemberist” movement to overthrow Nicholas I in favor of democracy. Was imprisoned to hard labor in Siberia for ten years and created a ring from his chains before starting a family.
In September 1986, Daniloff was framed and arrested by the KGB in retaliation for FBI arrest of Gennadiy Zakharov in NYC. KGB regularly places plants and honeypots among the international press community and has six or so framings ready at any given time; journalists are easier targets than businessman or professors. Daniloff source (“Misha”) regularly provided photos from Afghanistan, but KGB recruited to include classified information. In prison, Daniloff never physically abused but interrogated every day for 14 days. CIA exacerbated fiasco by having unnecessarily invoked Daniloff’s name in pursuing a Russian rocket scientist (“Ronan”) who was actually a KGB dangle. Finally, Reagan agreed to swap under conditions: Zakharov convicted, Daniloff charges dropped, and another Westerner released; set stage for October 1986 Reykjavik Summit.
Russia didn’t experience the Renaissance or Enlightenment like the rest of Europe, its history is of being invaded. Just when democracy seemed close, it had a revolution.
CIA used junior personnel in Moscow because had no history, but they were often outmatched on the home turf of formidable KGB counterintelligence.
Secret Service founded in 1865 to arrest counterfeiters (which it still does), but didn’t officially assume responsibility for protecting the president until 1902. Moved under DHS in 2003. 3,404 agents; wear color-coded pins on left lapel. Since 1997, headquarters at 9th and H NW DC. Classify threats I (minor) through III (most serious, monitor movements daily). Presidential protection teams can have up to 200-300 people, including counterassault (CAT) and counter-snipers. Motorcade can have up to 40 vehicles (first limo decoy, second backup). Training includes FLETC, GA and center in Laurel, MD (driving, swimming, etc). The real annual costs of running the WH probably exceeds $1B. 20-30 attacks on WH/year (assault rifle firing and crashed Cessna in 1994). Extended protection to presidential candidates after 1968. Trying to shift focus to IEDs/suicide bombers.
Kennedy (Lancer): If he had allowed officers to “ride the boards” in his limousine they would have blocked the fatal shot. Regularly had threesomes with his secretaries.
Carter (Deacon): Micromanager (e.g. tennis courts), phony (e.g. carried empty suitcases to look like man of the people).
Reagan (Rawhide): Friendly; didn’t realize shot—thought bit lip.
Clinton (Eagle): Secret service monitored from within room during knee surgery.
Bush (Trailblazer): Daughters tried to evade protection, Agents took inebriated boyfriend to GU Hospital one night.
Obama (Renegade): Threats increased 400% from Bush.
Grandfather led US communist party, parents met at MIT. Browder was rebellious, dropped out of school to become a capitalist in Eastern Europe. Worked for BCG and Saloman Brothers before starting own hedge fund in Moscow. Made huge returns, lost it all in the ruble crisis in 1998 and made much of it back again investing in Gazprom. When he revealed the way Russian fat cats looted Gazprom, he initially seemed to ally with rising Vladimir Putin, who sought to bring powerful businessmen to heel. But Browder soon lost favor with Putin and Moscow bureaucrats, and Russia expelled him in 2005. Corrupt police/FSB took over several of his firms and claimed a $230 million tax refund. Russian courts indicted Browder and his Moscow attorney, Sergei Magnitsky, for fraud. Officials imprisoned Magnitsky for months in brutal conditions, and police beat him to death. Ultimately led to the US Magnitsky Act denying visas to those involved. In retaliation, Putin forbid Americans to adopt Russian orphans.
Most proud of: Roman Empire, Seat of Christianity, Renaissance, and Risorgimento (unification).
Violent history of invasions. Influences: German (north), Spain (south), Muslim (islands). Florence was capital of Italy 1865-71.
Italian politicians are known for ideological ambiguity; abrasive language but physical civility. Complicated bureaucracy: no one knows for certain how many laws there are, five national police forces, four layers of government. Legacy of fascism is giant public sector; corruption and desire for preservation of monopolies runs rampant. Three crime syndicates: Camorra, Cosa Nostra, ’Ndrangheta. All are secret societies looking to corrupt lawmakers and replace the state. Mafia was largely contained in the south (maybe even reaction to northern-led unification) until a misguided governmental relocation program. Crime may be overblown but corruption of all types is widespread. Berlusconi escaped on statutes of limitations his own government created. Convictions take 8 years on average, often over 15. Lenient upbringings and Catholic forgiveness help explain fondness of amnesty/pardon. Justice system caught between inquisitorial and adversarial.
A lack of belief in ascertainable truth means issues remain stubbornly disputable (verita means “truth” but also “version”). Communicate via symbols/gestures and heavy emphasis on appearance (to the point handicapped often stay inside). Prize leisure, especially eating. Il tavolo means “table.” La tavola connotes the meal, preparations, consumption, and enjoyment. Italian food is generally healthy and easy to prepare. Fairly moderate drinkers, but high drug consumption. Italians love the familiar and distrust the new (wary of new technology, including dishwashers and the internet). Soccer team uses cautious, defensive style of play. Gli Azzurri has four World Cups, more than any other country sans Brazil. Massive 1990s Juventas cheating scandal.
To placate pope, Mussolini created the Vatican City State and made Catholicism the state religion. 88% Catholic; 31% attend Church weekly. Until 1978, all popes were Italians. The family is praised at every turn; many adults live happily with their parents. May reduce crime, though risk is “amoral familism” (loyalty to family transcends consideration of right v. wrong). Italians are not so much racist as insensitive due to the speed with which Italy has acquired its immigrant population. Treatment of the Romani (from Balkans) has only gotten worse since a brutal 2007 murder that promoted camps.
Throughout history, wargames and top thinkers have predicted surprises (machine gun, Blitzkrieg, Pearl Harbor, 9/11). Scenarios:
Collapse of Pakistan (and terrorists acquire nukes)
Nuclear terrorism in the US
Pandemic
Iran Precipitates a Regional War
Economic/Military conflict with China over Taiwan
Terrorists attack international economy (energy, trade, and communications)
US withdrawal from Iraq allows Russia and China to stabilize the Middle East
Recommendations:
Policy: Eisenhower model; staff drafts policy papers, NSC (<8) discuss and decide.
Military: Identify critical capabilities, then develop concept of operations. Learn from war games/field exercises (e.g. Millenium Challenge 02) and others’ experience (IDF in second Lebanon war). Conduct analysis and games at all levels (tactical, operational, strategic).
Training: Need joint national training center and one focused on urban warfare.
Childhood memoir growing up a Dodger’s fan in Brooklyn, 1943-57. Received scorebook at 6, learned power of narrative by describing games to father each night. NY teams:
Yankees/“Bronx Bombers”/Bronx/Yankee Stadium/Billie Martin, Casey Stengel/Elite, Rich
Giants/Manhattan/Polo Grounds/Willie Mays, Leo Durocher/Conservative Businessmen
Dodgers/“Dem Bums”/Brooklyn/Ebbets Field/Jackie Robinson, Pee Wee Reese/Blue Collar/Red BarberVin Scully
In 1951, Dodgers up 13.5 games, lost a three-game playoff for the pennant on Bobby Thompson’s bottom of the ninth home run. Several fights amidst purposeful beanballing. In 1955, Jackie Robinson stole home and won first ever World Series. Amidst declining attendance, Giants and Dodgers both left 1957. Robinson was traded to the Giants but chose to retire as a Dodger.
Ebbets Field had ragtag band that played “Three Blind Mice” for umpires and “The Worms Crawl Out” when opposing pitcher came out. At first confessional, DKG admitted had been to an Episcopal church to see Roy Campanella and had wished harm against Phillies pitcher Allie Reynolds every night before bed.
Non-baseball: Great controversy was a movement to prevent pinball machines. Each mother had own theory to prevent polio—including bans on wet clothes and sharing pencils. Entire town of Rockville Centre had Atom Attack Tests, where all traffic came to a halt and volunteer Boy Scouts/high school seniors acted as casualties. DKG & friends acted out McCarthyism, setting up mock Senate chamber and accusing each other of being poor sports and cheating. Buying TVs initially communal activity, later isolating.
Lessons from leading the Joint Special Operations Task Force 2003-06, fighting AQI in Iraq.
In an increasingly complex environments, adaptability trumps efficiency. “Being effective in today’s world is less a question of optimizing for a known (and relatively stable) set of variables, than responsiveness to a constantly shifting environment.” There’s no such thing as a perfect solution, only iterative improvement. Can’t simply rely on checklists.
Replaces Quaker Frederick Winslow Taylor’s focus on mechanistic efficiency through rigorous optimization and standardization.
“We had built an”awesome machine”—an efficient military assembly line—but it was too slow, too static, and too specialized—too efficient—to deal with that volatility.”
Team of teams applies the agility of small teams to large (over 100 ppl) organizations. Need mutual trust. While not everyone can maintain relationships, someone on every team has to know someone on every other team. Key to idea flow is “engagement” and “exploration.”
Web-structure runs directly counter to traditional hierarchical, MECE (mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive) organizational practice.
BUD/S is less about training people to follow precise orders than to develop trust and adaptability within a small group to combat unknown obstacles.
Strategies to incentivize intelligence sharing: Be generous with cc line; take calls on speakerphone; daily standups; respect and celebrate analysts.
The primary role of a leader is to craft the culture. We associate leadership with wisdom or courage, but “tending the garden” is more important.
Paradoxically, instantaneous information sharing slows decision-making by compelling leaders to withhold decision authority. With increasing complexity, the cost of micromanagement are increasing.
McChrystal described his thought-process to approving raid/air strikes, and then entrusted his subordinates to make real-time decisions.
Other: NASA beat ELDO to the moon because developed systems management information sharing organization rather than European national stovepipes. Pentagon was designed for efficiency but access restrictions/maze of hallways undermined. Best strategy for prisoner’s dilemma is “Tit for Tat”; cooperate first, then mirror other player’s previous move.
Aldrich Ames walk-in, betrayals, discovery (post-it note, Jeanne Vertefeuille/Sandy Grimes), and arrest.
KGB warned Felix Bloch–a spying US Diplomat–of FBI investigation, revealing another mole besides Ames. Bloch fired but FBI lacked evidence to charge.
Robert Hanssen tradecraft and peculiarities (guns, diamonds, opus dei/priest confession, took stripper to Hong Kong, voyeur fantasies). Motives: money (totalled millions), desire to be operative/for excitement, curiosity of KGB, ego.
FBI agent Mike Rochford pitched 27 known KGB offering $1M for info about the mole. Shcherbakov was a former KGB official who had copied the full Hanssen file and was under death threat from the Russian mob. Rochford lured to NY under art deal and eventually turned for negotiated $7M.
Promoted from DoS liaison to SES computer job to limit access and ease surveillance. Caught at dead drop. Attorney Plato Cacheris struck plea to avert death penalty (IC wanted alive to do damage assessment). Responsible for at least 3 deaths, $22B in damage.
Tangents: Jim Angleton/Golitsyn, Yurchenko double defection, Polyakov betrayal, Brian Kelley false accusal, tunnel under Russian embassy, Platt/Vasilenko friendship.
San Jose mind is older, smaller mine known for perfunctory safety practices (vertical escape tunnels lack ladders, seismic monitoring system never purchased). A single block of diorite the height of a 45-story building fell through each layer of the ramp like a trap door. A false alarm could’ve cost shift supervisor his job. The owners didn’t call the authorities until five hours after the collapse or issue a statement to families for two days.
Shift leader realized how dire the situation was, so did not reassure but took off helmet and abdicated leadership. Several men quickly raided paltry supply of cookies in “refuge,” have several thousand liters of industrial water in tanks used to keep engines cool. All 33 men unite each day for prayers and meals and self-criticism sessions. Worried colleagues will give up and jump into the “pit.”
Miner’s sister realizes the most important thing she can do to keep rescuers focused is by staying at the mine; becomes “mayor” of Camp Esperanza (Hope), which draws attention and donations. President assigns his fixer to oversee rescue; tried chimneys as well as nine 4.5” drills targeting refuge. Finally breaks in after 18 days; miners bang on drill bit and send back notes. First voice over telephone is President, send down glucose gel (full meal would have killed them).
Have three larger drills going, push one too hard and burns out. Enlist support from US drillers, as well as NASA and psychologists/therapists to work with the men. Begin to receive newspapers but constant bickering over who is leading the effort. Celebrity raises $5M for each. Men ultimately agree to keep quiet to sell their story. Design specialized rescue vehicle and elite Navy rescuer. Upon rescue, some struggle with celebrity/alcoholism but many return to other mining jobs. Create nonprofit to aid poor of the region.
Grew up in privilege in Pretoria, though bullied by peers and parents divorced. Mind wandered so much parents thought deaf. Went to Canada for school and transferred to UPenn. Self-taught coder held down simultaneous internships at Pinnacle Research Institute and Rocket Science Games. Fresh out of college in 1995, founded Zip2 (Google Maps meets Yelp). Made $22M selling to Compaq. Poured in X.com, the online banking startup which would morph into PayPal (Thiel pushed out in coup while on a trans-Pacific flight); eBay bought for $1.5B in 2002.
SpaceX: Joined space club, tried to buy Russian ICBMs, poached talent from TRW, McDonnell, etc. Founded Space Exploration Technologies in 2002 to build engines and contract with suppliers for other rocket components. Picked Kwaj to control launch facility, took six years longer but successful. Helped reduce Russian dependency and will lower cost of launch. 80-90% of the rockets are in-house (ULA has over 1200 suppliers). New launch facility in South Texas, Starlight.
Tesla: Although the last successful car startup was Chrysler in 1925, founded Tesla in 2003 focused on the battery and was helped by technologies allowing easier meeting of safety regulations. Supply chain challenges. Most cars 10-20% efficient (lost heat in engine); Model S 60% efficient. Eliminate maintenance by fixing problems with software updates. Ford blocked Model E name (Musk wanted S, E, X). True tests will be Gigafactory, Model 3.
Suggested half brothers create SolarCity. Hyperloop was random idea until Obama bought in.
Management: Thinks big (abandoned Silicon Valley for LA, focused on colonizing Mars instead of “how to make people click ads”). Made surprise visits to check on suppliers. Took Model S home and came back with 80 requested changes. Able to stay focused in the midst of crisis. Musk interviewed the first thousand hires, focused on Type A, robot-builder types. Pays well, though but Blue Origin poached some talent. Put engineers in the middle of the production floor. Company-wide emails (e.g. Acronyms Seriously Suck). Treatment of senior military members appalling. Showcases products in evening Galas, without practice. No sense of loyalty/human connection (e.g. sampled long-time assistant’s job to see how hard, then fired).
Personal: Lost 10-month old son, within next five years had twins and triplets. Justine: “I am your wife, not your employee.” Elon: “If you were my employee I’d fire you.” “Fix it today or I’ll divorce you tomorrow”; cancelled her credit card. Married and divorced actress Talulah Riley twice.
We are socially, organizationally, economically, physically, behaviorally, nutritionally, linguistically, cognitively, and emotionally dependent upon sleep. Sleep enriches our ability to learn, memorize, and make logical decisions. Dreaming helps console painful memories, melds past and present knowledge, and inspires creativity (Edison trained himself to wake up during REM sleep to write down his creative ideas). You are never aware how sleep-deprived you are. Vehicular accidents caused by drowsy (e.g. microsleep) driving exceed those caused by alcohol and drugs combined. Every animal sleeps (even birds can take micro-naps while flying), but human beings are the only species that will deliberately deprive themselves of sleep without legitimate gain.
Sleep depends on:
Circadian Rhythm: Average human’s clock runs 24.25hr (similar to 24hr rotation of earth, but extra 15 minutes means we are biologically doomed to stay up late).
The superchiasmatic nucleus can only readjust to jet lag about one hour per day. Jet lag especially bad eastward because easier to artificially stretch a day than shrink it.
The natural human state is biphastic (two sessions/day), with ~7hr/night with 30-60min nap in afternoon. Older people suffer from increased fragmentation.
Sleep Pressure: Adenosine accumulates in brain while awake
Caffeine occupies adenosine receptors, but does not halt accumulation, leading to backlash once wears off. Caffeine peaks ~30min after oral administration and lasts 5-7hr.
Phases of sleep:
Wake: reception (experiencing the world)
NREM: reflection (storing and strengthening raw ingredients of new facts and skills)
REM (dreams): integration (interconnecting raw ingredients with each other and all past experiences). Body blocks muscle activity.
Sleep disorders:
Somnambulism: Sleep movement (e.g. walking, talking, eating, texting, rarely—homicide)
Insomnia: Sleep but don’t achieve restful rewards
Narcolepsy: Fall asleep unpredictably
Recommendations:
Give yourself 8-9 hours of adequate sleep opportunity time in bed.
Reduce artificial blue light, which delays the release of melatonin by ~50%.
Set temperature to around 65deg (body temperature must drop 2-3deg, meaning hands, feet, head may radiate heat away)
Maintain consistent schedule/never use Snooze button and avoid daytime napping if difficulty sleeping. If can’t sleep for >20min, get out of bed and do something relaxing until tired again.
Avoid heavy exercise/eating late just before bed.
Alcohol is a sedative of your impulse control, but it does not induce natural sleep and suppresses REM sleep. Sleeping pills are sedatives providing only artificial sleep and can develop dependence.
Melatonin provides the official instruction to commence sleep but does not participate in sleep (it is largely placebo effect—the most reliable effect in all of pharmacology)
Sauces: Vinaigrette (1 vinegar: 4 oil), Salsa Verde (parsley, garlic, oil), Aioli (egg yolk, oil, garlic), Herb/Honey Butter (mix)
Salads: Garden, Greek/Pasta
Bread: Croutons/toast/bruschetta, Pizza/Flatbreads, Breadcrumbs
Pasta: Fresh pasta (flour, eggs), Polenta (cornmeal)
Rice: Short-grain (e.g. sticky), Long (e.g. basmati, jasmine), Pilaf, Risotto (e.g. Arborio)
Oven: Chicken, Lamb, Beef, Pork, Roasted Vegetables
Frying Pan: Sautéing, Frying, Pan-Frying
Slow Cooking: Braising, Stewing: Ratatouille (summer vegetables)
Simmering: Poaching (cooking eggs/meat in hot water)
Grilling: Steak (hot fire), Hamburgers/Chicken/Vegetables (medium heat),
Omelets: Frittata (flat round omelet with stirred filling), Soufflé (light puffy egg dish)
Desserts: Tarts, Pies, Cobbler, Custard (e.g. flan), Ice Cream, Cookies, Cake
Diets
Vegan: No meat, seafood, dairy, eggs
Vegetarian: No meat, sometimes seafood
Jewish (Kosher): No pork, random rules; Yom Kippur fast
Muslim (Halal): No pork, alcohol; Ramadan fast
Political-military relations (senior leadership interaction) as subset of civil-military relations (military/society). Stronger presidency and more prominent military leaders has increased tension in the past 60 years, but ideal is continuous negotiation with mutual trust born of candor, respect, competence, shared worldview, and accountability. Largest problem today is retired flag officers endorsing presidential candidates. Moten proposes National Military Council of near-retired generals to advise President while JCS focus on leading their services.
Washington (1775-83):Washington used both political and military intuition to court local leaders/militias for army. Continental Congress gave extraordinary power to prosecute war until Philadelphia fell—then almost fired, created Board of War. In Newburgh Conspiracy, Washington retained control of army while insisting on subordination to political authority (voluntarily stepped down after war).
Adams/Hamilton (1797):French Revolution, execution of Louis XVI, and US neutrality in FR-GB war ended French support of US; seized over 300 ships. Pro-war Federalists admired Britain, Republicans looked to France. Constant bickering forced Washington back into military, where he selected Federalists over Republicans. Adams wisely avoided war with France, but independence empowered Hamilton as de facto leader of the Federalists, where he created the fiscal-military apparatus.
Madison (1812): Jefferson founded West Point but slimmed military spending. Madison went to war with weak executive, divided Congress, unprepared military, incoherent strategy, and abundant confidence. Three years of war—largely at sea and on the Canadian border—eked out peace treaty to codify the status quo. Federalists opposition to war ended their party, which helped unify nation.
Polk, Scott, Taylor (1848): Polk was humorless politician intent on increasing US territory. He chose aggressive and unnecessary war, but grew territory by 1/3. Zachary Taylor (Old Rough and Ready) was seasoned and popular general but artless tactician and careless logistician. He won his battles but disobeyed operational orders and refused to work with Scott. Winfield Scott systematized the American military profession, though was arrogant, insecure, and verbose. Scott mobilized, equipped, and trained army—devising an operational plan flexible enough to achieve almost any strategic objective—but his Whig affiliation caused Polk to discard him after war.
Lincoln/McClellan (1861-3):Autodidact Lincoln had patience, humor, common sense, and a deep understanding of people. He came to realize he could not make generals, but had to recognize talent. Despite strong resume, McClellan was arrogant and paranoid, constantly overestimating his enemy, parochially focused on his theater of operations, and unwilling to shoulder responsibility. Lincoln made regular visits to Army HQ to read incoming telegrams, showed strategic/political deftness at Sumter and Emancipation Proclamation. 1862 letter to Hooker strong foundation for political-military thinking.
Lincoln / Grant (1863-5):Grant was willing to fight, used resources without complaint, and had no interest in making policy. Lincoln gave his commanders glory and shared Grant’s emotional strength, moral courage, and intellectual stability.
Wilson / Pershing (1916-8):Mahan theory prompted blue-water navy buildup and Spanish American war triggered expansionist foreign policy. Wilson started isolationist, but gave Pershing absolute autonomy in building an American army in France to achieve absolute victory. Primary political challenge was integration with Allied forces (“amalgamation”).
Roosevelt / Marshall (1941-3): FDR reached past 34 others to tap Marshall Army Chief of Staff, renowned for his integrity and lack of political aspirations. Military opposed FDR Lend Lease (giving away equipment). FDR empowered service chiefs (JCS) and neutered secretaries (excluding them from conferences). Conflicts were over theater prioritization, when to invade France, and military sought more clarity in policy/strategy, while FDR adhered to a few broad principles, keeping options open.
Truman / MacArthur (1950-3): MacArthur was charming, generous, brilliant, and visionary—but also arrogant, self-centered, and thin-skinned. In Civil War, 18yo father daringly took hill at Chattanooga, proving “it’s the orders you disobey which make you famous.” Nearly 20 straight years in Asia, only met Truman once. Denied West Point admission, Truman harbored disdain for military elites. Disagreed over Formosa policy, China threat/scope of war; MacArthur regularly disobeyed orders and sabotaged Truman’s peace plan. Public outraged but JCS defended Truman in 42 days of Congressional inquiry. MacArthur Republican presidential bid fell short of Eisenhower.
LBJ / Taylor (1962-8):Maxwell Taylor—the dashing and famous WWII 101stAirborne commander—championed an alternative to massive retaliation known as flexible response. JFK adopted and following Bay of Pigs Taylor was appointed presidential military representative—a new position which marginalized the JCS. LBJ was master political strategist, but believed he was doomed to fail. Appointed Taylor CJCS, stifled debate, and deceived the public about escalation.
Powell (1991):Powell was a product of both Vietnam combat and Washington bureaucracy, helping end the military malaise following Vietnam. Shortcomings in joint operations (Iran, Beirut, Grenada) prompted Goldwater-Nichols, which strengthened CJCS just as Powell entered as youngest ever. In Desert Storm, Powell’s Doctrine (clear strategic objectives, overwhelming force to achieve) overstepped his role as military advisor into policymaking, being overly cautious about any action (“half a million troops…what’s the question?)”
Bush / Rumsfeld (2003-6): Bush entered office incurious and unlettered in foreign affairs. Rumsfeld the youngest and oldest Secretary of Defense, CENTCOM Tommy Franks bully to subordinates; sycophant to superiors. Administration less “team of rivals,” more “pair of rival teams.” Declared war on Pentagon bureaucracy (snowflakes), championing “shock and awe” warfare, creating OSP intel shop and using Franks to marginalize JCS. GWOT, WMD, and preventive war made up Bush Doctrine. Failed to take any responsibility for post-invasion fiasco.
Richard Thaler/Cass Sunstein told Lewis Moneyball wasn’t original. Daryl Morey was the Billy Beane of the NBA; relied on combination of models and scouts.
Daniel Kahneman: Born 1934, spent childhood evading Nazis, moved to Palestine 1946. Psychology was focused on behaviorists, which studied rats; Danny focused on Gestalt psychology, which studied human mind. Became IDF psychology expert, instilled rigor in interview process. Insecure, antisocial, formal, pessimistic, eager to please.
Amos Tversky: Born 1937, became Israeli paratrooper. Brilliant but eccentric (empty desk, shaved while driving, left bad movies early—“they’ve already taken my money, should they take my time too?” Confident, life of the party, informal, optimistic. Died of cancer 1996.
Met at UMichigan, taught at Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Much of the initial material came from Danny analyzing his own mistakes. Developed theory jointly, worked independently to apply to reality. Both returned to join IDF psychological unit for 1973 War. Although Amos privately resented receiving most credit for the joint work (job offers, McArthur Genius), he did not express this to an envious Danny. With distance, Amos focused on decision theory while Danny stayed in psychology.
Representativeness
Availability (anchoring/adjustments)
Simulation (people base decisions based on constrained scenarios that play out in their mind)
Prospect Theory (loss aversion, framing) – initially thought fear of regret, but rejected
Psychology is the intellectual garbage bin for problems and questions unwelcome in other academic disciplines. Impacted history (hindsight bias), medicine (systematic diagnoses bias), policy (choice architecture). Quotes:
“Instead of artificial intelligence, we study natural stupidity [behavioral economics].”
“The big choices we make are practically random, depending on chance encounters and timing. The small choices probably tell us more about who we are.”
“I don’t understand live free or die. Regulate me gently, I’d rather live.”
“Ideas are a dime a dozen. If one doesn’t work out, find another.” “Protect free time. You waste years by not being able to waste hours.”
“A key part of a consultant’s job is to feign total certainty about uncertain things.”
Born to poverty, tried to conceal mother’s Mexican heritage (though late in life advocated for Negro League inductions into Hall of Fame). Tall, thin rookie of the year known as “the kid” (immature, profane, irritable). Fans adored, though he never tipped his hat after home runs (and once spat at booing fans). Hated writers because even after Triple Crown lost MVP. Tried to avoid service in both WWII and Korea, but acclaimed USMC pilot (20/15 eyesight). Focused on hitting only (even as Senators manager). Pioneer of lighter bat, studying pitchers; Science of Hitting remains excellent book. Was hitting .3995 going into last game 1941, went 6-for-8 to finish at .406. Hit homerun in final at bat. Loved fishing (taught him patience). Admitted he “struck out” as a husband and father. Estate (kids) decided to cryofreeze his remains.
Iceland: The free-market Icelandic Prime Minister privatized the banks in 2002, but Business Affairs minister was philosopher, Finance Minister veterinarian, Central Bank governor poet. Icelanders amassed debt accounting to 850% of their GDP. Iceland imports everything except energy and fish.
Greece: The average government job pays almost three times the private sector. Schools are breathtakingly inefficient (among lowest performing in Europe despite four times as many teachers as highest performing Finland). Few paid taxes because everyone was sure everyone else was cheating (and prosecutions took 15+ years). Hard to say where waste ends and theft begins. Instead of banks sinking government, government sank banks (banks loaned 30M to government). Became a nation of people looking for anyone to blame but themselves.
Ireland: In miracle, poverty rate dropped from ~28% in 1980s to under 6% in 2008 (free trade, low corporate tax, free public higher education). Irish real estate bubble wasn’t disguised, top executives continued to buy shares in their own banks until collapse. Despite being first country to have entire banking system fall, kept business friendly Fianna Fail party in power until 2011.
Germany: Germans longed to be near the shit, not in it. German banks are less free enterprise than public utility. The entered Maastricht Agreement because it had rules, but they were gullible. On remorse of WWI/II history: when everyone feels guilt, nobody does. You can spend days in Germany without seeing a flag (patriotism is taboo).
California: The market for municipality bonds spooked easy. City politicians repeatedly caved to public safety union demands. Whenever a neighboring union struck a better deal the others had to follow suit. Everywhere you turn Americans sacrifice long-term interests for short-term rewards.
The three largest forces on the planet—technology (Moore’s Law), globalization (Market), and climate change (Mother Nature)—are all accelerating at once. Requires lifelong learning, and we are unable to keep pace developing training, management, and regulations.
2007 as inflection point:
iPhone (AT&T—and Qualcomm—invested billions in making the networks efficient)
Hadoop (Spinoff from Google effort to make thousands of computers run together seamlessly)
GitHub (open source code lab with over 12m users)
Airbnb (creator started when conference sold out hotels; only had three air mattresses)
Watson (evaluates and weighs information from multiple sources)
Twitter, Android, Palantir, Kindle
*Uber owns no vehicles, Facebook creates no content, and Airbnb owns no real estate.
MOORE’S LAW: Microchip research driven by 1950s ICBM development. In truth, the last two iterations of Moore’s Law (annual doubling) were achieved in two and half years rather than two—but still remarkably accurate.
Generations: 2G: Voice and Data; 3G: Connecting to the Internet; 4G: Seamless Connection
Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson: The Second Machine Age:
First Machine Age: Industrial Revolution (steam engine) machines complement humans
Second Machine Age: AI. machines can substitute for humans
*There is a difference between automating tasks and automating an entire job (e.g. bank tellers).
GLOBALIZATION/GEOPOLITICS: World of Disorder: Parts of Africa, Middle East, South Asia, Central America, and Eastern Europe. Social media helps organize movements, but (1) lets government monitor (2) our social media experiences are designed in a way that favors broadcasting over engagements, posts over discussions, shallow comments over deep conversations. Contain extremists and deter near-peer adversaries.
ENVIRONMENT: Scorecard:
Areas of urgent need: Climate change, biodiversity, deforestation, biogeochemical flows
Just inside boundaries: ocean acidification, freshwater use, atmospheric aerosol loading, introduction of novel chemicals, plastics, nuclear wastes, etc.
Improved: thickness of ozone layer
→ Americans are feeling overwhelmed because the physical effects (immigration, trade, digital flows) got ahead of the learning and adopting tools needed to cushion their impacts and anchor people in healthy communities.
Other:
We can now digitize four of five senses (working on smell). A person’s voiceprint is more accurate than fingerprint or iris scan.
PayPal can approve loans more quickly thank banks because they found actual transaction histories are a more reliable view of creditworthiness than FICO scores.
NeotaLogic: Produce wills and basic legal documents for the 40% Americans can’t afford an attorney (“TurboTax for lawyers”).
Gaming platforms like Foldit enable anyone to contribute to important scientific research.
Policy recommendations:
Single-payer healthcare
Free trade agreements
Make accredited education totally tax deductible (change undergrad from 4 years to 3)
Immigration: high wall with a big gate
Ban the sale of semiautomatic rifles and attempt government buy-back
Reduce corporate income tax (bring earnings back to US)
Change the inflation formula to slow annual growth in Social Security benefits
Limit national political campaign spending and shorten the length to a few months
Include ranked choices in elections
Strategy requires change, which can be “stroke of the pen” (e.g. capital investment, M&A) or “behavior” (e.g. improved customer experience, higher quality). Behavior change requires discipline to execute.
The enemy of execution is the urgent (“whirlwind”) rather than important (Wildly Important Goals).
Focus on the Wildly Important (2-3 goals maximum)
“If every other area remained the same, changing what area would have the greatest impact?” Can be tactical or strategic. Senior leaders can veto but should not dictate.
Say what, not how. But be specific (e.g. “[Verb] from [X] to [Y] by [Date]”)
Act on the Lead Measures
Lag measures are metrics indicating results (should be obvious from WIG).
Lead measures are the intermediate outcomes or behaviors required to drive meeting lag measure objectives. Should be:
Predictive—Impact goal
Influenceable—Members of team can affect
Measurable—May require creating new tracking systems
Ongoing—Try to avoid “one-and-done”
Unique—Don’t just use lag measures with shorter time frame
How to create Lead Measures:
Choose WIG and lagging measure
Discuss what goes wrong (or right) with that measure
Which items have the largest impact?
Do a “5 Whys” root cause analysis to identify potential leading indicators
What can we do about it?
Keep a Compelling Scoreboard
Competition generates motivation. Dashboards are for everyone—not just leaders.
Should be simple, visible, display both leading/lagging measures, and tell you immediately if you are winning or losing. Must be updated at least weekly.
Create a Cadence of Accountability
Hold a 20-30 minute WIG session at least weekly to review status, check scoreboard, and make new commitments.
Keep brief (no small talk), allow teamwork/lessons learned, celebrate progress.
Within large organizations, there should be WIGs at each level but they should feed into those above them.
Father/ Barack Obama Sr (1936-82): Born in Kenya (complicated family tree), brilliant but troubled youth, fathered Auma/Roy/Abo/Bernard (Kezia), received scholarship to University of Hawaii, fathered Barack (Ann), went to Harvard, returned to Kenya, struggled for political opposition to Kenyatta, fathered Mark/David (Ruth), died in car crash.
Mother/Ann Dunham (1942-95): Daughter of Stanley (Gramps) and Madelyn (Toots), grew up in Kansas and Texas, attended UH, mothered Barack, married Indonesian, mothered Maya, died of cancer.
Barack Obama (1961-): Born in Honolulu, moved to Indonesia with step-dad/step-sister, went to Occidental (LA), transferred to Columbia (NYC), community organizer in Chicago, summer in Kenya, law school at Harvard…
Points of note:
Father was first African American student at UH. Met twice; viewed as an MLK-type, but learned he was a bitter drunk, abusive husband, and a defeated bureaucrat. Nonetheless found some closure after 1998 Kenya visit.
Kenyan grandparents opposed his parents’ marriage; American supported. Gramps bragged to tourists Barack was the great grandson to the first King of Hawaii.
Life in Indonesia was rough, due to sheer poverty and wild animals (killed chickens, hunted an escaped crocodile by torchlight).
Went to Occidental to follow a girl; transferred to be in a major city with more African Americans. Implied used pot, booze and blow (cocaine)—but not smack (heroine). Drugs weren’t about trying to prove a “down brother,” but to push questions of identity out of his mind.
Organizing was a promise for redemption. Worked through churches to help enact change. African American children learn not about their own African culture but about the country that oppressed them. Difference between Obama and the troubled teenagers on the streets is they have no margin for error. Not about socioeconomics (“Cops don’t check my bank account when they pull me over”). Similarities (poverty, absence of men) in Kenya.
Three weeks in Europe before Kenya “felt like he was living in someone else’s romance. Found tourists in Kenya”insulting,” with “a confidence reserved for those born into imperial cultures.”
Obama was only the third African American to serve in the US Senate since Reconstruction.
Strategy is about making choices which increase odds of success. Leaders resist choices because it limits them, but to serve everyone everywhere is a losing choice. Strategy development is not linear, but iterative; no one strategy will last for all time. Each level of the organization (even an individual) has its own cascade.
“Strategic Choice Cascade” Framework: Not magic, but radically simple. Not purely academic, used effectively by Proctor and Gamble.
What is our winning aspiration?
Where will we play?
Geography, Products/Capability, Customer Segment, Vertical Stage of Production, Distribution Channel.
Focus on core strengths but remain vigilant for innovation.
TOOL: Strategic Logic Flow (Industry, Customers, Position, Competition)
How will we win?
Value proposition/sustainable competitive advantage (must be unique from competitors)
Low Cost: distinct sourcing, design, production, distribution, etc.
Differentiation: premium on brand, quality, service, etc.
TOOL: Reverse Engineering Process (brainstorm options, consider would have to be true, test assumptions)
What capabilities must we have?
Technology, Brand, Scale, Customer Intimacy, Mission Knowledge
Narrow down to ~5 capabilities that fit together and reinforce each other.
TOOLS: Activity System (map as web) or Reinforcing Rods (layer through levels of organization).
What management systems do we need?
Strategy development format: Avoid presentation (“corporate theater”). Create constructive dialogue on less than 3 key strategic topics with fewer than 10 people in the room.
Strategy communication: Communicate to everyone in a simple, evocative, and memorable way.
Measurement/metrics should span financial, customer, and internal dimensions to avoid focusing on a single parameter of success. Dual benefits:
Focus: Creates incentives/accountability.
Feedback: Informs strategic adjustments.
Planning/Actions: Create systems around protecting and delivering capabilities.
Acquisitions: Not a silver bullet; often overly expensive and strategically challenging. Must be:
Growth accretive: Growing faster than the market it’s in
Structurally attractive: OM% above average of industry, strong free cash flow.
Fit company strategy: All five elements
The ability to perform deep work (single-tasking, no distractions, intense focus) is becoming increasingly rare at the same time it is becoming increasingly valuable in our economy. Studies show multitasking is less productive because a residue of attention remains stuck thinking about previous tasks. Rules:
Use routines to ritualize deep work (T. “Roosevelt dashes”)
Prioritize the “wildly important”
Quit Social Media
Inject regular leisure time to recharge/let unconscious untangle
Increase motivation by connecting tasks to interests, goals, and values. Complete the hardest task first (“eat the frog”). Use mini-habits to start tasks (e.g. “put exercise clothes on”). Break down multi-step project into a series of small tasks.
Write down list of top 25 things you want to do in the next few years, and circle the top five. Then create quarterly SMART (specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, attainable) goals. Seek focused “Deep Work”; 25 minutes on, 5 minutes off.
Use the Eisenhower Matrix (Urgent/Important) to prioritize. 80% of your results come from 20% of your effort.
Speechwriter for SC Governor Mark Sanford. Speeches valued governor’s voice over quality; letters crafted to maximize both words and possible interpretations (communicating feeling over meaning requires verbiage). Vague, slippery, meaningless language is required due to the shear number of issues politicians are asked to have opinions on. Swaim constantly belittled (source of camaraderie among staff); a triangle in edits meant Governor wanted new speech but couldn’t say how or why. Governor insisted part of each speech surprise audience . Politics doesn’t have more liars, but many see public service as a means to achieving their thirst for glory.
Law Enforcement reported him missing; statement said hiking AT; finally revealed affair with Argentinian; narrowly survived impeachment. Parsimonious Governor ordered driver to turn off car while waiting for train to pass and wore same white shirt for two weeks straight.
-Karlheinz Brandenburg invented the mp3 (Moving Pictures Experts Group, Audio Layer III) in 1997, but consistently lost to the mp2 in competitions for FM radio, CD-ROM, Video Compact Disk, and HDTV broadcasting. Once it caught on, the name implied mp3 was successor to mp2, which worked in their favor. Music industry was slow to adapt because they didn’t realize consumers valued convenience over perfect quality sound.
-Initial “cracked” files were known as “warez,” a deviation of “software.” Internet Relay Chat created constellations of ripping communities. Dell Glover, who worked at Universal’s production plant in TN, made nearly $200,000/year smuggling over 20,000 songs out by hiding discs under his belt buckle to avoid security wands. Napster made file sharing mainstream; BitTorrent (fragmented downloads) made it faster; PirateBay (Sweden) made it notorious; Oink (private) made it cleaner.
-Universal CEO Doug Morris trusted market research more than expert opinion . He realized African-American culture drove popular sound (jazz, blues, soul, R&B, disco, techno, house, and rap). Morris took heat for vulgar lyrics but profits grew; Ludacris and Outkast expanded rap from NYC and LA to Atlanta. Morris’ compensation incentivized short-term hits (pumping out pop trash); new releases hit shelves on Tuesdays. Universal was already in trouble for bribing DJs and “Astroturfing” to get their songs on the air. Morris initially thought he could beat piracy by pumping out hits, then tried to sue the mp3 out of existence. Later, he began to embrace technology by pioneering Vevo.
-The music industry wouldn’t license mp3s without a critical mass of mp3 players, and the electronics industry wouldn’t manufacture players without users. Lil Wayne pioneered abandonment of arbitrary 74-min album in favor of free singles released on internet. With the popularity of music festivals, musicians began to earn more from touring than recording. Jobs’ iTunes sought to transform the economics of music, with no advances but artists receive 50% royalties from each play.
-When pirates began distributing audiobooks, they awoke the wrath of the likes of JK Rowling. Early law enforcement efforts to “educate” often punished the innocent end-user. FBI opened Operation Fastlink, which prosecuted hundreds (max five years for copyright infringement) although couldn’t get Cassim, a leading pirate because nobody could confirm his identity.
In 1996, 3.5% of the U.S. population were millionaires. More than 80% are ordinary people who accumulated their wealth in one generation. Based on extensive surveys and research, they:
Live well below their means
Most are cash poor because they invest most of their income. They avoid luxury goods (never purchase house for more than twice your household’s total annual realized income).
They minimize taxable income and maximize passive income (capital gains tax often below income tax).
Allocate their time, energy, and money efficiently, in ways conducive to building wealth
They are meticulous planners and budgeters (know how much they spend on food, clothing, and shelter). Couples are open about expenses and use single checking account to hold each other accountable.
They begin earning and investing as early as possible, and most are passive investors—42% had not made a trade in the past year. Those who use a financial advisor choose carefully.
Believe financial security is more important than displaying high social status
The goal of wealth is not to spend it, but to assure financial independence. At least homes hold value—restaurants, vacations, and lawn services do not.
US has high consumption lifestyle, but happiness is more closely correlated with financial security. High consumers spend more time worrying about government tax rate.
Their parents did not provide “economic outpatient care”
They choose the right occupation
Characteristics of Nelson Mandela:
Courage: It’s not the absence of fear, it’s learning to overcome it.
Be Measured: Prison taught him self-control, discipline, and focus. In turbulence, he radiates calm, believing most mistakes result from haste rather than inaction.
Leadership: Sometimes from front (to kickstart a process) but generally from the back (empowering others).
Look the Part: Appearances matter, and we have only one chance to make a first impression. His smile puts others at ease. He sits completely still with no nervous ticks.
Have a Core Principle: Equal rights for all guided everything he did; the rest is tactics. He did not hesitate to say “this isn’t right.”
See the Good in Others: See everyone as virtuous until they prove otherwise. No one is purely good or purely evil. The surest way to win an argument is to listen patiently to the other. At your triumph, show mercy and your enemy will become your friend.
It’s a Long Game: It’s not the velocity of your decision but the direction.
Find Your Own Garden: Planted a garden in prison to quiet his mind. Find a hobby to put yourself at ease.
Breaking Naval Enigma probably shortened WWII by two years, foiling Hitler’s plan to starve the UK through U-boats. While the codebreakers made a vital contribution, they would never have succeeded if not for brave spies and seamen capturing manuals.
Spies
In 1931, Hans Thilo Schmidt in the Berlin Cipher’s office began passing photographs of early Enigma operating manuals to his French spymasters Lemoine and Bertrand. They passed it to the Polish cryptographer Rejewski who broke it from 1932-37 until the Germans altered their code.
When Germany invaded Poland, the Polish cryptographers fled to Chateau de Vignolles in France. After arrest, two (Langer and Ciezki) admitted Enigma was broken before the war but convinced their interrogators it was lost. Lemoine was arrested in early 1943 and turned in Schmidt, who committed suicide in jail. Bertrand was arrested in early 1944 but escaped after promising the Nazis he would serve as a double agent—he convinced the Brits he did not reveal the Enigma secret but was not fully trusted and kept prisoner until after the D-Day landings.
Sailors
From 1940-44, a dozen daring and often chaotic boarding attempts to captured U-boats and weather ships discovered invaluable machines, codebooks, and manuals: U-33, Polares, U-13, U-110, Krebs, Munchen, Gedania, Lauenburg, U-570, U-205, U-559, U-505. Each generated concern the Germans would realize Enigma was compromised, but each time the Germans assess their communications remain secure.
In March 1941, intercepts allowed the Mediterranean Fleet to defeat the Italian navy. On D-Day, messages were monitored almost real time to ensure no wolf pack U-boat ambushes.
Codebreakers
Machine contains 3-4 wheels and 10-20 plugs. When a key is pressed, the translated letter lights up (much more detail in book). Army and Air Force has separate Enigmas. Navy also had special procedures: Offizier, Shark (U-boats), Dolphin (home waters) and RHV (for small littoral boats).
The Bletchley Park crew (Harry Hinsley, Gordon Welchman, Richard Pendered, Hugh Alexander, Alan Turing) was young, brilliant, and eccentric—largely Cambridge mathematicians. Ten seniors with 115 support staff two hours northwest of London.
Turing and Welchman pioneered the bombe and spider bombe machines to work out the daily enigma settings. Germans tried adding wheels and plugs, new bigrams, double encrypting, and other methods to stay ahead. The first wartime decryption in under 24 hours was in spring 1940. Turing also pioneered the use of cribs (guessed meanings) and the Banburismus approach to reduce trial and error.
UK was resistant to sharing with the US, skeptical of their security. US considered UK approach inadequate and wanted to augment Bletchley’s 12 bombes with 336 (Turing talked them down to 96). But cooperation ultimately proved vital.
If not for a series of fortuitous decisions and outcomes in April 1865, the US may have permanently unraveled (as so many post-civil war states do).
April 2: Fall of Richmond (Five Forks, Sayler’s Creek)
The exodus from Richmond occurred quickly, with crowds mobbing trains west. Fires to destroy tobacco warehouses spread uncontrollably as Federal troops arrived single file to avoid land mines. On April 4, Lincoln strolled into Davis’ headquarters.
Lee masterfully inspired his men, but was slowed by faulty bridges and a clerical error which misdirected desperately-needed rations. Surrounded, he chose surrender—critically without guerilla war (“Go home now, and if you make as good citizens as you have soldiers, you will do well”).
April 9: Appomattox Station
April 15: Lincoln Assassination
Background: Lincoln had little interest in fiction and read aloud to understand better. Lost first love to “brain fever” and fought depression through storytelling. Lacked executive experience (had barely employed anyone), military experience (failed to discipline troops in Black Hawk War), and travel experience (never been abroad). Believed slavery immoral but remained pragmatic politician, prioritizing maintenance of the Union.
Lincoln dreamed of his death only days before; astonishingly the first 13 invites declined to accompany him at Ford’s theater. Maryland-born Booth was a well-known actor who Lincoln liked. Seward’s assassin wounded five family members and nearly the killed the Secretary; VP Johnson’s assassin got cold feet.
Remarkably, cabinet approved succession to Johnson, an Jacksonian Democrat and drunk who had spoken to Lincoln only once. Lee mourned the loss of Lincoln and urged Davis to abandon guerilla warfare (to no avail).
April 17, 26: Bennett Place
Sherman, intimidated by Joe Johnston and Breckenridge, offered generous conditions vehemently rejected by Washington. After one week, Johnston bravely defied Davis’ orders and accepted under the same conditions Lee had.
Jefferson Davis helped create the Smithsonian, proving nearly all historical figures have a mixed record. He could never decide if he wanted to be Confederacy President or Secretary of War—and he did neither well.
1865: Reconciliation
Named after 1960 Barry Goldwater book, in which he stood up to party for principles. Conservatism and patriotism should not be confused with nationalism (and its cousin, populism). Issues with Trump:
Muslim travel ban; refugee restrictions
Disinformation/conspiracy and undermining own intelligence community
Abandonment of free trade
Jockeying with key allies while praising dictators
Party lines aren’t as strong as you think: Kennedy instituted first tax cuts, Nixon reversed and Carter reinstituted. Principles of Obamacare originated in Heritage Foundation.
Collective blame: Democrats destroyed regular order in the Senate while Republicans played chicken with the budget. Republicans gerrymandered PA, Democrats MD.
Family: Marked by privilege (father gave $10M, got him in Harvard/his first three jobs) and tragedy (lost three siblingsàmade empathetic). Father Joe Kennedy: comfortable upbringing, lucky/smart scotch distribution business, friend of FDR, ran SEC, isolationist ambassador to UK in lead up to WWII. Ran tight household (five minutes early to dinner, required three languages, quizzed on current events). Offered kids $1000 if they didn’t drink until 21 (Jack drank, Bobby didn’t). Stroke paralyzed in 1961; died 1969.
Joe Jr: Most promising, USN pilot, died over English channel in WWII.
John “Jack”: Commanded PT boat, bookish, good-looking; health problems, adultery.
Robert “Bobby”: Eleven kids.
Edward “Ted”: Lion of Senate; knew nuts and bolts but less idealistic.
Daughters: Rosemary (failed lobotomy), Kick, Eunice, Pat, Jean
Early Career: Out of UVA law, helped Jack beat Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. for Senate in 1952. Joined McCarthy’s subcommittee on investigations (solidified belief nation overrun by enemies within, importance of investigating adversaries with rigor). Three years busting racketeers and chasing Teamsters Union harnessed reputation as crusading reformer but also revealed him as ruthless/bully (“Fine line between fervor and fanaticism”).
Two-month trip to Soviet republics was a brash publicity stunt but also gave him a more nuanced understanding of communism. Bobby was eight years younger than Jack and wasn’t very close until a trip to South Asia together when Jack almost died. Jack was bookish good-looking statesman while Bobby was ruthless empathetic consigliore (“tough mind, tender heart”).
In 1953, found a 4-BR in Georgetown for $400/month. Later moved to 18-BR “Hickory Hill” next to Langley HS.
Attorney General: Although 25% of Americans Catholic, JFK’s religion was a massive stigma (concerns about allegiance to Pope). JFK choose to embrace faith making vote referendum on how tolerant Americans were. Bobby did not get along with primary opponent LBJ and opposed him for VP.
1960 was first debate ever (not just first televised). Nixon heard JFK decline makeup (and did the same), without realizing JFK would get some later. Bobby and Jack clinched narrow victory by making calls to get MLK out of prison, winning swaths of black voters. Joe insisted Jack appoint Bobby to AG, careful messaging dulled the accusations of nepotism despite the fact Bobby had never actually practiced a case (first courtroom appearance would be at Supreme Court).
Domestic: Bobby went after Cosa Nostra (which Hoover shied away from), a democratic congressman (against JFK’s wishes), and Kennedy family friend Landis, but blocked investigation of Frank Sinatra. Took on new causes like mistreatment of Indians and child poverty, but also shied away from going after the corrupt wealthy (threatened trust-busting with big steel but didn’t follow through). Tepid support for freedom riders and integration of Ole Miss and UAlabama (misread the lesson of Little Rock—don’t avoid using federal troops but send overwhelming numbers early to quell the violence).
Foreign: Met with known Soviet spy to pass info to Khrushchev. Staged charm offensives on trips to Ivory coast, Japan. Helped US recover from Bay of Pigs (negotiated prisoner releases) but repeated mistakes with series of failed assassination plots (Operation Mongoose). RFK’s memoir Thirteen Days hides his uneven performance in the Cuban missile crisis (initially supported military strike) revealed through tapes—but did play a crucial role in chairing meetings and serving as interlocutor to USSR. Brilliantly kept Hungary agreement silent.
Showed leadership following JFK assassination but took years to recover. Stayed on as AG but less vigor except civil rights, which LBJ deputized to him. LBJ and RFK represented different eras of politics and each saw himself as the rightful heir to JFK’s legacy. Resigned September 1964 a more introspective and empathetic man.
Intense boss (walked 50 frigid miles in 20 hours) but dressed casually and refurbished DOJ HQ (gym, couches, picnic tables). No line between work and family—did much business over pool parties at Hickory Hill. Hoover sabotaged MLK relationship by stoking fears of communism and forcing RFK to agree to wiretap which found little beyond infidelity. Hoover collected dirt on both Kennedys knowing he almost certainly would’ve been sacked at the beginning of a second term.
Senator/Presidential Campaign: Senate was only logical next step–NY was only realistic 1964 run. Won close campaign and came into job more prepared than most. Tireless advocate for anti-poverty. Evolved against Vietnam from 1965-7, just in time to be viewed as legitimate critic. Gave powerful “ripple of hope” speech in Apartheid South Africa. Ham-handed 1968 campaign launch made him look like an opportunist, sweeping behind Eugene McCarthy, but MLK assassination gave campaign new purpose. After an encouraging win in CA primary, assassinated by Palestinian radical.
Lou Gehrig stole home 15 times—but every time was on a double steal (e.g. runner from first).
On giving signs: There are “basically 12 different places you can touch without going to jail”—touch them all in random order and equal cadence.
Based on projections, Cy Young would probably have won his own award four times (three fewer than Roger Clemens).
One 1970s Cubs outfielder would hide balls in the ivy to retrieve them as needed. In 2002, a White Sox fan poured acid on Wrigley’s ivy.
Hockey goalies didn’t start commonly wearing masks until 1959.
Gerald Ford had an offer from the Green Bay Packers coming out of Michigan but chose law school instead.
The best Presidential golfer was FDR, who scored consistently in the low 80s until being diagnosed with polio.
Lawyer: Busiest and most honest lawyer in Boston. Represented British soldiers in Boston Massacre: “more important innocence be protected than guilt punished.” An avid farmer and gradually purchased land to reach 53 acres at Braintree (later Peacefield, Stoneyfield), 10 miles south of Boston. Adams usually drank hard cider.
Independence: Active participant in Continental Congresses (1774, 1775). Phrase “Taxation without Representation” originated in Ireland. Benjamin Franklin was famous and knew the British king well but slept through most meetings and bizarrely proposed arming the militias with bows and arrows. Jefferson sat totally silent while the delegates cut a quarter of his Declaration and made 80 other changes (“Jefferson the pen; Adams the voice”). Votes cast July 2 and celebration (13 cannons) was July 8. Actual signing was August 2.
War: Adams envisaged himself a soldier but did not fight, serving on the board of war instead. After defeat at Brooklyn Heights, Washington adjusted to a defensive strategy despite massive defections. Retreat ended with crossing of Delaware.
Europe: En route to France with John Quincy, ship was stuck by lightning and captured a British ship. Had love-hate feelings about France, but they were polite and allied by the time he arrived. Franklin was celebrity. First American to stand before King George III as a representative of the new nation. Also served positions in Spain and the Netherlands. Authored much of the Massachusetts Constitution, the oldest active written Constitution.
Vice President: A largely undefined role, cast several decisive votes but ultimately set precedent for it to have little formal role. Adams believed Washington’s talent was his “gift for silence.”
Presidency: After losing 1796 election, VP Jefferson became highly partisan. Adams were absolute opposites in appearance, manners and interests but shared views on law and Independence. First melee in Congress Jan 1798 involving spitting, canes, and fire tongs.
Surrounded by warmongering against the French, Adams passed Alien (mostly unenforced) and Sedition (obvious violation of First Amendment) Acts. Against public opinion, courageously sent mission to France after Pickering had been expelled. Simultaneously grew the Navy to around 50 ships and created first tax to fund provisional army, naming Washington commander-and-chief.
First President to occupy the White House. In 1798, spent seven consecutive months in Quincy conducting business by correspondence. DC was still a swampy half-finished shanty town.
1800 Election: Remains among the most contentious in history. Hamiltonian wing of the Federalists turned on Adams. Narrowly lost the presidency after 36 votes (ironically Jefferson won by carrying NY). Adams left 4am the day of Jefferson’s inauguration; would have been magnanimous to stay for peaceful transition of power, though was as much a logistical decision as bitter one.
Family/Retirement: Over 1,000 letters with Abigail and hundreds with Jefferson survive (Benjamin Rush reconnected in 1812). Two daughters, three sons (John Quincy, Charles, Thomas). John became Senator and President in 1825, Charles died young and Thomas failed law school/struggled with drinking. In reflection, said would rather have been a shoemaker. Adams and Jefferson both determined to make it to 50th anniversary—both died July 4, 1826. Adams lived until nearly 91, the oldest until Reagan surpassed.
Quotes:
“May none but honest and wise men ever rule under this [White House] roof”
“The habits of a vigorous mind are formed in contending with difficulties”
Korea: Mattis forced to invoke WWIII prospect to rationalize US presence in ROK (in addition to 8 seconds additional warning on incoming ICBMs). Trump nearly tweeted withdrawal of US military dependents from ROK—severe escalation potential. Mattis/Cohn organized brief at “Tank” in Pentagon to educate Trump about post-1945 world order, turned into battle royale between Trump/Bannon and his cabinet. Tillerson: “fucking moron;” Mattis: “understanding of a 5th or 6th grader.”
Afghanistan: Trump/Bannon v McMaster/Tillerson/Graham. Trump insisted on “getting out,” but finally agreed to low-profile “Four R’s” (reinforce, realign, reconcile, regionalize) approach to perpetuate stalemate and prevent terrorist attack. When Spicer (USN Reserves) repeatedly asked Mattis to go on talk shows, he replied “I killed people for a living. If you call me again I will send you to Afghanistan.”
Syria: Trump ordered assassination of Assad after sarin attack; Mattis said “yes sir” then told aide “we’re not going to do any of that,” instead creating menu of moderate strikes. Trump proudly announced strikes to Xi over dessert at Mar-a-Lago.
Saudi Arabia: Kushner worked directly with MBS to lock in Trump’s first official trip to KSA, over the objections of McMaster and Mattis.
Trade: Dominant feud pitted Cohn/Porter/Tillerson v Trump/Navarro/Bannon/Miller/Ross. Cohn used mountains of data to try to educate Trump (e.g. 84% of US economy is services, Chinese pharmaceuticals, changing block outside Trump tower). Kelly tried to resolve by making Navarro subordinate to Cohn, who resigned once tax law passed and lost on steel tariffs.
Immigration: After building rapport with Graham over golf, Trump invited Graham/Durbin into ambush in Oval and “shithole” comment killed prospect of DACA deal.
Special Counsel: Rosenstein memo provided long-sought excuse to fire Comey but backfired with release of contemporaneous memos forcing Mueller appointment; Trump cancelled meetings to spend day watching cable news and lashing out at staffers. Dowd/Cobb v McGahn: Dowd proposed cooperative approach to Mueller while McGahn advocated claiming executive privilege. Ty Cobb left after loose statements including early conclusion; Dowd resigned when Trump refused not to testify (after practice, told everyone Trump could not possibly testify). Dowd interactions suggest Mueller was somewhat aloof from details of the investigation.
General Dysfunction
Each night Trump received briefing book and following day’s schedule. Each morning he came down to Oval at 11am and asked his schedule. Much to Bannon’s dismay, Trump had no list of goals in his head to accomplish, and often would forget about previous orders.
Trump (self-proclaimed “Hemingway of 140 characters”) ordered printouts of his most popular tweets and studied them for themes.
Trump promised Treasury to chief campaign donor Mnuchin, but when they interviewed Cohn, Trump told him “Gary has much better ideas than you do” so Mnuchin leaked he’d been promised Treasury. Trump offered Cohn Dep SecDef and DNI before NEC. Offered Graham ambassadorship to Pakistan.
Multiple aides took papers off Trump’s desk to prevent/delay bad policies (Cohn: KORUS, Porter: Paris climate change withdrawal). Priebus got fired over Twitter, Kelly (nasty temper) tried to impose discipline by keeping Oval door closed but quickly lost influence.
Ivanka had unfettered access to Trump, leaving him articles and arranging phone calls (e.g. Gore, Zuckerberg). Trump liked to joke: “they’re liberal democrats!” Frustrated Bannon screamed “You’re just a fucking staffer!”
Trump insisted on meeting AUS PM Turnbull inside a SCIF so it had to be destroyed afterwards.
Approaches to Trump varied: Cohn: Come with more data than anyone else in the room; treat clients like gold. Mattis: show deference, play to ego, proceed with business, travel as much as possible.
Survey: Through 1100 interviews in Milwaukee, found 13% of renters experienced a forced move over the prior two years (eviction, landlord foreclosure, building condemnation).
Field Work: Embedded with two landlords (North Side African-American ghetto; South Side Caucasian trailer park) and eight families before, during, and after eviction. Many spend 70-80% of salary on housing (recommended is 30%). High demand for cheap housing gives landlords leverage. 1/3 of tenants are behind on rent, which dissolves nearly all rights/protections. 90% landlords have attorneys; 90% tenants do not (Gideon doesn’t apply to civil). Landlords often make 50x their tenants. Cause of evictions include late rent, crimes, nuisance (e.g. repeated calls to 911 for son’s asthma). Drug addiction, pregnancies, medical bills, layoffs all intertwined. Result is bouncing from friends to shelters to new apartments, unable to make ends meet much less better the community. Themes:
Evictions create poverty as much as poverty causes evictions. Evictions are contagious (hosts of displaced subsequently evicted) and a catch-22 (evictions count against when applying for public housing).
While mass incarceration impacts disadvantaged men, eviction impacts (75%) women.
Recommend guaranteed lawyers for tenants, universal housing voucher program (all under certain income get voucher, must be accepted everywhere)
US remains the world’s pre-eminent cyber power, but the gap is closing; and its sprawling financial systems, utilities, and communications make easy targets. The opening salvo for all future war will be a cyber barrage, and ease of offense/introduction of AI pose tremendous escalatory risks. Key incidents/dynamics:
Olympic Games: Presidentially approved covert action which destroyed Iranian centrifuges, but the Stuxnet code leaked online and replicated. Nitro Zeus was full plan to shut down entire country. Secretary Rumsfeld gave cyber to Hoss Cartwright at Strategic Command until 2009 standup of CYBERCOM (cyber didn’t appear in IC threat assessment until 2008).
Saudi Aramco: With the help of an insider, Iran wiped 30,000 computers and 10,000 servers, causing 5 months of damage.
Snowden: Hacked into government computer to steal NSA admissions test, but went to BAH for more money. While sys admin in HI, used $100 web crawler to swipe all the program information he could (sources and methods were compartmentalized). Revealed PRISM, Quantum, Merkel tapping, etc.
Shotgiant: NSA TAO burrowed into Huawei’s headquarters and crawled through company networks, both to understand risks and identify vulnerabilities to use against other countries that used Huawei products. Weakened US claims of no economic espionage.
Google v. NSA: NSA’s “man in the middle” plan put NSA between “Public Internet” and “Google Cloud.” Americans generally didn’t mind NSA monitoring international calls, but smartphone triggered renewed push for privacy. Google laid own fiberoptic cables and encrypted files.
Apple v. FBI: Apple update introduced automatic encryption of all data—and user would have keys, not Apple. Independent panel supported but after San Bernadino, Comey hired Israeli firm to hack phone.
China: PLA Cyber Unit 61398 stole everything from designs of F-35 aircraft to gas pipelines to Google’s algorithms. Former USAF officer Kevin Mandia attributed to “APT1” and hacked into laptop cameras. Google fought them on both censorship and security.
OPM: Despite warnings dating back to 2005, an outdated system and delinquent management left less security than Gmail. 22M (7%) Americans lost SF-86s, but White House refused to blame Beijing until the symbolic indictment of five hackers in 2014.
DPRK: Began training “computer warriors” in 1996, diverting high-performing students to special universities and Bureau 121. For DPRK, cyber-attacks were cheap and useful for fundraising—and it was a tough target. In 2013 hit three ROK banks and 2014 hit London broadcast network. NSA operation Nighttrain was intrusion into DPRK cyber networks.
Sony: In 2014, got inside Sony with phishing attack—wiping thousands of harddrives, publishing embarrassing emails, and paralyzing 70% of computer power. USG refused to reveal evidence and responded with weak sanctions but caused USG to take more active role in protecting private networks. Commercial retaliation “hack back” remains controversial.
Musudan: In spring 2016, 7/8 ICBM launches failed; US was legitimately unsure if they caused it. “Left of launch” treated as aspect of missile defense but could be pre-emptive war or covert action. But by 2017, Kim rolled out a new missile with 8/9 successes.
WannaCry: Used some vulnerabilities in Microsoft software stolen from the NSA by the Shadow Brokers to launch an indiscriminate attack on hundreds of thousands of computers around the world; locking data and demanding a ransom. DPRK also attacked banks in Bangladesh, Philippines, and Vietnam.
Ukraine: Russians disrupted May 2014 Ukrainian election voting systems and social media. In June 2017, exploited common piece of accounting software to knock out 30% of Ukraine’s computers, disrupting infrastructure (e.g. ATMs, Chernobyl). Use of Little Green Men completed Gersimov Doctine (Hybrid/Multi-Domain Warfare).
DNC: Putin angry over Sec Clinton statements about 2011 Russian election; Victoria Nuland hawkish policy. Richard Clarke’s cyber company warned DNC early 2015. FBI alerted DNC Sept 2015 only to learn no CERT. First WikiLeaks trove released June 2016, revealing DNC efforts to support Clinton over Sanders.
Internet Research Agency: “Putin’s Chef” led team of 80 generating hundreds of fake Facebook accounts/advertisements and tens of thousands of Tweets, hoping to trigger chaos in the US election. Also dispatched two experts to tour purple states for three weeks. 2/3 Americans get news from social media. Hacker in Red Square created rally called “Stop Islamization of Texas” and counterrally “United Muslims of America,” which turned out hundreds.
DoS/WH/NSA: Other (often competing) Russian proxy forces attacked the State Department’s unclassified email system and White House servers. Russian group called Shadow Brokers got inside TAO and began releasing code of offensive weapons. NSA CI (Q Group) went on broad hunt for insiders.
Terrorism: Social media was an invaluable tool to track down Paris attackers, but also remains among the extremists most potent recruitment tools. NSA/CYBERCOM launched “Operation Glowing Symphony” in 2016 to stymie terrorists’ messaging, but it largely failed.
Recommendations:
We need a playbook for responding to attacks quickly and proportionally. (CyberCRIME doesn’t require in-kind retaliation). Obama administration rarely named & shamed (much less retaliated) due to IC disagreement, fear of revealing sources/methods, and/or forcing themselves to retaliate.
We should reduce reflexive secrecy around cyber making open debate impossible, especially on programs leaks have already identified. Even nuclear weapons and drones had more transparency.
We can still set norms about what we won’t do in cyberspace and could work towards a “Digital Geneva Convention” (perhaps led by companies in short run).
**Ho Chi Minh lived 30 years in exile in US, UK, France, China, returned in 1941. Despite Japanese rule during WWII, French retained governance duties. Dien Bien Phu (1954) prompted French withdrawal and Geneva Accords split on 17th parallel with intent for reunification within two years. But Ngo Diem quickly consolidated power in the South. Communist guerillas (NLF/VietCong) swiftly moved South. Kennedy resisted sending troops until 1961, deployed ~11,500 green berets (alongside USAID and Peace Corps). Initial success led McNamara to declare gradual withdrawal by 1965. Diem and brother Nhu were wildly unpopular; repressed Buddhists and unsteady relationship with Americans. Poorly trained AARVN forces avoided fighting (e.g. coughed to warn VC of ambushes, refused to rescue downed helicopters). US Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge permitted a military coup which killed Diem and Nhu. Followed by eight successive governments in a year—all viewed as puppets of the Americans. Gulf of Tonkin (1964): anxious sonar operators told LBJ a north Vietnamese attack was “probable but not certain.” To show strength, LBJ approved retaliatory attacks and Congress approved the popular resolution. NV responded by sending regulars into the South. With situation worsening, LBJ approved 100,000 troops. Westmoreland focused on conventional battle and “cross-over” point in which US was killing more NV regulars than they could replace, but VC controlled nearly 75% of South Vietnamese. First cavalry division arrived with 450 helicopters and innovative tactics pioneered in Ia Drang Valley (1965). LBJ tried to muster coalition but only got AUS, NZ, ROK, Taiwan. Operation Rolling Thunder (1965-8) bombed North/Hanoi. Destroyed oil facilities but China/USSR replaced and Hanoi rebuilt. Anti-aircraft fire resulted in scores of US POWs. Stray bombs killed thousands of civilians (and one killed 42 Americans). CBS footage of burning of Cam Ne revealed brutal methods. Pentagon put their quantifiable metrics in supercomputer in 1967 and it calculated the US won the war in 1965. While the archetype of intellect/confidence, McNamara’s growing doubts resulted in advising de-escalation starting 1967. MACV ignored CIA estimates and glossed over Army rifle battalion wiped out at Dak To by exaggerating VC body count. USMC intense fighting near DMZ. VC would boobytrap U.S. bodies. Army reporter revealed US atrocities, including rape and murder of women and children. M16s required constant cleaning to prevent jamming. Only about 20% of deployed Americans saw combat. MLK and famous pediatrician Benjamin Spock led massive antiwar in Manhattan. Westmoreland took unprecedented response of testifying before Congress. 1968 DNC was focal point for thousands of antiwar protests, Richard Daley rolled back with baton-swinging cops. Tet Offensive (1968): Prologue was series of “border battles” to draw U.S. troops out of cities. General uprising occurred Jan 30 in hundreds of towns across country and was mostly beaten back. But media focused on Saigon, where CBS and photographer caught men executed in street. Followed by intense urban fighting in Hue. Walter Cronkite returned convinced we could no longer win. Nixon convinced SV President Nguyen Tew to boycott Paris peace talks to sabotage Hubert Humphrey in 1968 election. LBJ knew but didn’t publicize to avoid revealing sources and methods. Nixon authorized secret bombing of Cambodia and punished NYT for publishing. Creighton Abrams replaced Westmoreland (1968). 85% of population was in countryside—hated Saigon, which insisted they build strategic hamlets. War displaced millions of Vietnamese from rural homes into cities. Endemic corruption, war profiteering (selling US equipment on black market).
At high point in 1969, were 583,000 U.S. troops. Bloody, high-profile battle for Hill 937 (“Hamburger Hill”).
Nixon and Abrams knew “Vietnamization” couldn’t win, but was a political necessity. Tried to offset by tripling equipment supplies for AARVN. At My Lai (1969), 100 Americans eager for revenge from heavy losses killed 407 civilians in cold blood. Battle readiness, morale and discipline of US forces were as bad as ever been (e.g. 40,000 troops addicted to heroine). Nixon pursued “incursion” into Cambodia to slow Ho Chi Minh Trail. Kent State (1970): Day after protestors burned down the ROTC building and blocked firefighters, Ohio Governor sent National Guard to disperse protesters but killed four students. Weathermen and Black Panthers became militant wing of the antiwar movement. Protestors waved VC flags and pilloried returning US troops. Jane Fonda went to Hanoi and denounced American troops as war criminals and imperialists. Veterans like John Kerry became outspoken opponents of the war and some tossed their medals at the Capitol. Nixon initially unbothered by Pentagon Papers, but became concerned about own secrets leaking so created Plumbers to target Daniel Ellsberg/Brookings. Easter Offensive (1972) was conventional NV attack on three fronts (DMZ, Central Highlands, and Saigon/Mekong). Nixon/Kissinger responded with Operation Linebacker, heavy bombing which rolled back attack on An Lac but also restarted bombing of NV. Kissinger and Le Duc To reached secret agreement, US strong-armed Tew into accepting by threatening to cut aid.
Cease fire collapsed immediately upon US troop withdrawal. In foolish attempt project strength, US Ambassador Graham Martin refused embassy evacuation–resulting in chaotic helicopter escape (1975). Most Vietnamese partners left behind; no widespread massacres but plenty of individual acts of retaliation. AARVN officers had to undergo reeducation. 1.5m “boat people” fled SV, many died or became refugees, but 400,000 made it to America. Full normalization of relationship in 1995.
Be proactive and take control of your own fate.
Begin with the end in mind.
Write a personal mission statement and integrate it into your daily life.
Put first things first.
Put effort and good will into relationships (win-win).
Seek first to understand, then to be understood.
Synergize by treating others with openness and respect.
People favor the recent, so when a fixed number of entries, try to go last (e.g. go for last interview slot)
People prefer the familiar, so look the part and be in the right place (e.g. doctors in white coats considered more trustworthy)
People favor attractive and confident people, so look your best and remind yourself of your strengths.
Hard work and discipline are important, but the “10,000 Hour” theory is not entirely true (e.g. being a professional athlete or musician also requires certain genes/resources)
Who you know if more important than what you know
Stay curious and say yes…it makes you more interesting and opens new opportunities.
A modern day Atticus Finch, Stevenson graduated Harvard Law and founded the Equal Justice Initiative to defend death row prisoners in Alabama. Story chronicles Walter McMillan, who overcame six years of corrupt DAs, political machinations, racially biased legal rulings to get off death row. Interjects other cases of children, mentally ill, poor mothers, and minorities who are underserved by the criminal justice system. Stevenson ultimately convinces the US Supreme Court that life imprisonment of children is cruel and unusual. “We are not defined by the worst thing we’ve ever done.” “Let he who is free from sin cast the first stone.”
We should focus less on achieving success and more on how to manage inevitable failure/suffering. You are defined by what you’re willing to struggle for (e.g. professional athletes are the ones who enjoy long hours at the gym). Most of us are pretty average at most things, so if you can’t accept mediocrity then you’ll likely never be happy. We don’t control what happens to us, but we control how we interpret it and respond to it. Identify what your values and don’t worry about other things. Pondering your mortality/legacy helps tamp down superficial concerns.
June 1950, DPRK rolled over ROK, destroying half their army and capturing Seoul in just five days. The limited US forces were plagued by surprise, overconfidence, and inexperience. DPRK forced civilians to march and carry equipment.
Patton protege Lt Gen “Johnny” Walker dug in at Pusan Perimeter. One CAS pilot ran out of ammunition to strafe so dropped his boots, tricking DPRK into thinking bombs and buying time for troops to escape. US had air superiority throughout war.
MacArthur, champion of amphibious operations, designed Incheon landing. US X Corps (included US 1st Marine) faced varied resistance landing on Blue, Red, and Green beaches. Simultaneously, IX Corps launched offensive out of Pusan, pushing DPRK back to Yalu River (China).
Chinese Communist Forces (CCF) had manpower (over a million men) but were dangerous because their light footprint and guerilla tactics (night attacks, camouflage) made them stealthy. Weak logistical tail, communications.
“Other” or “See-Saw War”: Reds retook Seoul, but UN recaptured and fended off multiple CCF counterattacks in spring 1951. First Marines recaptured the “Punchbowl”
The second and third years were largely a static conflict, with defensive patrols and regular raids. The Armistice was signed July 1953, with intentions for a full for fledged treaty to follow.
Introduction of helicopters and MASH cut death rate of casualties nearly in half. POW treatment improve as the war progressed. Canadians built rinks to play hockey.
Chronicles training at Camp Pendleton, three-week voyage, Incheon landing (week after capture), fight to Uijongbu, Wonsan landing, Chosin Reservoir (Sudong Valley, Escape from Yudam-ni), Chinghung-ni. Organization:
Corps (X Corps)
Division (1st Marine Division)
Regiment (7th Marine Regiment, Camp Pendleton)
Battalion (1st Battalion)
Company (Baker-One-Seven Rifle Company)
Platoon (Mortar Platoon)
Squads
Rifle/M1 carbine (15 semi-automatic)/mortar/BAR; DPRK bugle signaled attack; walkie talkies rarely worked on hills so used runners; Chinese bayoneted Marines in their sleep, so skipper wouldn’t let men use sleeping bags; password to identify friend/foe; wounded officer escaped from hospital to return to the front line; Chinese drew troops further into Chosin—everyone knew but MacArthur in Tokyo; frequent use of tracers for aircraft, but mountainous terrain limited effectiveness of air support; 25 below freezing; kept morphine syrettes in mouths to keep from freezing; killed Chinese because lacked ability to take POWs; 10 Chinese division were permanently out of action, 1st Marine fought for 2 more years.
Current: US relocated from Yongsan (in Seoul) to Camp Humphreys (45,000 troops). ROK pays 92% of base cost.
In the biggest leak ever, two German reporters received 2.6 TB of data from an anonymous whistleblower on Panamanian law firm/offshore provider Mossack Fonseca. In collaboration with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), enlisted over 400 collaborators to chase leads and apply regional expertise before publication April 2016. The Panama Papers were followed by the 1.4 TB Paradise Papers, first published November 2017.
Shell companies are not illegal, but most often an end client (beneficiary owner) via intermediary hired an offshore provider (Mossfon) to set up a nominee owner to hide money and evade taxes. There have also been over 3,000 connections to organized crime, tax fraud, and other criminal activities:
Icelandic PM Gunnlaugsson was forced to step down for holding assets in wife’s shell company through banking crisis.
British PM Cameron survived major scandal for holding shares in his father’s offshore investment fund.
Argentinian President Macri directed a shell company.
Pakistani PM Sharif came under fire for shell companies owned by his children.
Other leaders included Russian President Putin, Ukrainian PM Poroshenko, KSA King Salman, UAE President KBZ, Ecuadorean President Correa, Australian PM Turnbull, Italian PM Berlusconi, Egyptian President Mubarak
Nearly every FIFA official, plus Lionel Messi.
Japanese culture warped to extreme of values widely considered good (e.g. loyalty, honor, etc.)
Reasons Japanese became addicted to imperialism:
Lure of “Great Power Status” with Western states
Industrial powerhouse; stomped China (1894) and Russia (1904) in naval/land wars.
Literally joined the club; receiving higher level ambassadors
Reality of Security Needs
Had angered neighbors (Sleeping Giant China, Korea)
Now had to hold strategic ground (e.g. Manchuria)
Political Need to Avenge Sunk Costs
Military Investment (e.g. lives lost gaining territory)
Economic Investments (e.g. South Manchuria Railroad)
Tail Wagging the Dog
Government factions (all invoke abstract authority of “The Emperor”)
Military factions (rogue commanders staged bombings to incite war)
Income inequality has increased in most countries since the 1970s, largely due to labor income (wage) inequality (not capital earnings, as is widely believed). Largely based on new sectors requiring workers with high skills not provided through education. Despite variation in the short term, capital fairly consistently makes up 1/3 (and labor 2/3) of value added since 1920.
Methods for redistribution are important. Fiscal redistribution (e.g. corporate taxes) are preferable to direct redistribution (e.g. minimum wage increases), which disincentivizes firms to use labor (depending on capital-labor elasticity). Social charges (e.g. payroll taxes) are not paid out of capital but rather out of labor. Agriculture is the only sector where direct redistribution of capital has worked (e.g. loans to poor farmers).
Unions monopolize labor supply, distort market prices, and tend to compress the wage hierarchy across skill levels (though monopsony companies can do the opposite). Efficiency wages can increase productivity due to individual perceptions of fairness.
Possible instruments: flat tax on capital, highly progressive income tax, improve education/training, stronger unions, government-run social insurance. Attempts to abolish private ownership of capital have been “disastrous.”
Lived 1452-1519, mostly in Florence and Milan. Archetype for Renaissance Man. Illegitimate, almost no schooling, but intense observation, curiosity, and imagination. Also human, many great works remained unfinished. To-do list items included “describe tongue of the woodpecker.” Rivalry with young, petulant Michelangelo. Likely homosexual. Apprentice in Florence studio. The Annunciation. Architect (Milan Cathedral). Vitruvian Man (square/circle). The Last Supper (reactions/perspective). Mona Lisa (eyes/shading, smile/expression). Flying Machines (studied birds). Military Engineer (anti-ladder wall defense, massive crossbow). Scientist (anatomy, physics). Mathematician (geometric proofs). Lessons: Be relentlessly curious, observe everything, get distracted, think visually, avoid silos (e.g. art v. science), make lists/take notes.
Music is organized sound, made up of eight elements:
Tempo: speed of the rhythm
Meter: when you tap your foot hard versus light
Loudness: amplitude of the sound waves
Tone: frequency of the sound waves (20Hz to 20,000Hz);
Octaves are doubling of frequency (440Hz to 880Hz); “Over the Rainbow”; eight notes with sharps/flats are subjective but independently agreed upon
Key, scale, interval, chord
Contour: overall shape of a melody
Harmony: how the pitches relate to one another
Timbre: distinguishes one instrument from another
Memories are both tape recorder and constructivist. Music provides cues. Music processing occurs close to the emotional parts of the brain (on both left and right).
Being a expert musician requires technical dexterity, emotional communication and creativity, and mental structures for remembering musical patterns. Big jumps in melody pitch should be followed by directional changes (like anchoring in psychology)
The evolutionary basis for music and dance is to attract the opposite sex and help children develop. Studies find babies prefer music they heard in the womb; teenage years influenced by social pressures; most form their tastes by 20. We like music we associate with positive experiences and that strikes the right balance between simplicity and complexity.
Full account of Thaler’s career (URochester, Stanford, Cornell, UChicago) pioneering behavioral economics.
Heuristics: Humans make 95% of their decisions using mental shortcuts/rules of thumbs.
Prospect theory/loss aversion: losses avoided more than equivalent gains sought.
Mental Accounting: financial decision-making simplified by creating separate mental accounts, focusing on a narrow impact of each decision rather than its overall effect.
Overconfidence/Confirmation bias: Selectively seeking confirming data points.
Self-control: Succumbing to short-term temptation (marshmallow test, planner-doer model)
Market inefficiencies: These include mispricing and non-rational decision making.
Behavioral Finance:
Fairness: fairness concerns may stop firms from raising prices in periods of high demand, but not in times of rising costs (e.g. Dictator/Ultimatum Games)
Policy Implications:
Developments in the stock market:
After 9/11, banks wanted less vulnerable system and relocated to data centers in New Jersey. Data traveled through by fiber-optic cables at 2/3 speed of light (186 miles/millisecond).
In 2002, 85% of all trading happened on the NYSE and NASDAQ. By 2008, there were 13 public exchanges (and dozens of private), each containing a stack of servers and matching engine. Rather than simple commissions, fees and order types became more complicated. Private exchanges ran opaque “Dark Pools.”
In 2007, SEC implemented Regulation National Market System requiring brokers to find best market prices. While good intentioned, it mandated routing to more exchanges and relied on a slow Securities Information Processor (SIP)—without preventing companies from building their own faster versions.
High frequency trading shops (e.g. Citadel, Getco, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse) began:
Electronic Front-Running: Noticing demand for stock on one exchange, buying first on other exchanges in anticipation of selling it at a higher price.
Rebate Arbitrage: Using new complexity to game the seizing of kickbacks without providing the liquidity the kickback was meant to entice.
Slow Market Arbitrage: Seeing the price of a stock changing on one exchange and picking off orders sitting on other exchanges before the exchange were able to react.
Other: Used extra decimals on order types to jump the queue in front of others.
HFTs create a tax on investors, artificial activity, and market volatility (e.g. flash crashes). After discovering it, Brad Katsuyama of RBC developed a tool (Thor) to prevent front-running. Eventually, built a diverse team (primarily under-appreciated technologists) to launch a new, fair exchange (IEX). Couldn’t prevent HFT but kept far away by coiling the fiber cable. Banks wanted to protect own Dark Pools but eventually gave in.
Other: The only Goldman Sachs prosecution following the 2008 crisis was Sergey, who received 8 years for minor crime of saving proprietary code. In 2010, Spread Networks completed a fiber cable from NJ to Chicago to reach the futures market there. Job interviews are widely used for competitive intelligence on Wall Street.
Introverts have advantages in negotiations (e.g. prepare more, well-thought points, mild mannered comes across as reasonable, ask questions). Introverts work slowly and deliberately, one task at a time. They observe/listen more than they talk and dislike conflict. They may have social skills but express themselves best in writing.
Creation of the Extrovert Ideal: Dale Carnegie popularized “salesman” approach to business in 1936 book How to Make Friends and Influence People. HBS leadership style still values verbal fluency and sociability over quiet decision-making—but being persuasive doesn’t mean correct. Further, constant obsession with teamwork creates “New Groupthink” which stifles innovation.
Science: Near half introversion is determined by nature, resulting from an extra sensitive amygdala (may promote future altruism). Introverts are more sensitive to stimulants (e.g. noises distractions) so prefer libraries to coffee shops. Extroverts more likely to make friends in a competitive environment. Introverts sweat more and literally have thinner skin (more prone to false positives on polygraphs).
Culture: Americans are among the most extroverted people on Earth, while Asian culture is more likely to celebrate introversion.
Relationships: While opposites attract, introverts-extrovert couples must compromise and work at communication (e.g. in arguments, introverts restrain their opinions out of deference to extrovert but extroverts interpret as not caring.)
The End of the Cold War opened opportunities for global drilling, but Exxon responded to trend toward nationalization of oil by targeting countries which lacked the political or economic stability to manage a competent state-owned company.
Exxon’s size and performance is more consistent than other corporate behemoths, but it has to perpetually replace lost oil sources (its unique business depends on control of physical territory).
Among the most hated companies, Exxon manages criticism with coolness—but never compromise.
CEO Lee Raymond managed Exxon’s global position as a “peer of the White House’s rotating occupants.” The time horizon for Exxon’s investments stretched longer than almost any government it lobbied. At times, Exxon’s policy sway was stronger than the US embassy.
Exxon Valdez (1989) prompted Raymond to impose strict discipline and safety management techniques (“Raymond Rules”). Deepwater Horizon (2010) revealed no contingency plans. In 1992, an Exxon was kidnapped by a disgruntled former employee and died in captivity. Emphasized return on capital employed (ROCE), where Exxon almost always outperformed competitors. In 1993, moved headquarters from Manhattan to Irving. Exxon was the “Standard Oil” baby of New Jersey, Mobil of New York—merged in 1999. In 2009, bought fracking company XTO, reflecting a shift towards natural gas. Revenue is 21st largest GDP in the world. Raymond continued past retirement age, insisting Tillerson wasn’t ready. Rex “the Boy Scout” Tillerson softened company’s stances on human rights and climate change, but maintained aggressive global posture. Obama picked on Exxon profits in 2008 campaign–Tillerson launched disjointed PR campaign.
Indonesia: Mobil secured Aceh facilities using Indonesian forces which allegedly tortured and murdered separatists nearby. Leaned heavily on State Department to resolve war.
Equatorial Guinea: Pushed US embassy to protect oil fields despite human rights concerns; faced FCPA questions following failed coup against President Obiang. When USG distanced itself, turned to Israel/Mossad.
Chad-Cameroon: Invested $4.2B in aid to get access (more than the USG). But in CT, oil sometimes mattered more than good governance.
Qatar: Found massive reserves of natural gas, had to turn to LNG.
Iraq: Post 9-11, had to straddle differing policy priorities between Bush Administration (GWOT) and KSA (Shia adversaries). 2003 invasion was never primarily about oil, but there were discussions about a pipeline to Haifa, Israel. As the war unraveled, Exxon kept its distance until 2006 when structured contract so Iraq owned oil but Exxon counted toward booked reserves.
Russia: Following failed negotiations for Yukos takeover, Putin detained its CEO. Tillerson later inked $3.2B deal with Rosneft to explore Arctic.
Venezuela: Kicked out in 1975 and 2006; settled complex bond arrangement but blindsided PDVSA by freezing their $300M in arbitration.
Nigeria: Seven contractors kidnapped from Eket compound in 2006. Shifted approach to massive offshore production vessels and asked US Navy for security but they refused.
Perspectives of Global Oil Market: Mearshimer camp viewed as a geopolitical risk game; Feith/Tillerson saw as single free market (e.g. bath tub with several spigots).
Climate Change: 1962 Exxon ad: “we produce enough energy to melt 7 million pounds glaciers per day!” Lee on renewables: “let’s not get confused about what we’re doing around here.” Considered BP green rebranding fake. Paid a professor to do research attacking NOAA findings about ten year impact of Valdez oil spill; placed articles in scientific journals to bolster legal arguments. Renewables are helping with electricity production but demand for transportation and industrial needs still high.
Sickly and timid as a child, helped by wealthy family and quote “Act as if you aren’t afraid and you won’t be.” Obsession with physical fitness gave him an aura of perpetual youthfulness.
In under two years as NYPD Commissioner, he established a sense of professionalism/civil service, centralized executive control (reducing politicalization), extended employment opportunities for women, and brought in new technologies. His handling of the press was masterful because he had ready gossip and was highly quotable.
As Assistant Secretary of the Navy, he sought to make the Navy an instrument of war and diplomacy (G. Washington: “to prepare for war is the most effectual means to promote peace”). Technology rendered isolationism impossible. He didn’t always “speak softly”–he viewed war romantically and threatened it with Venezuela.
Roosevelt was promoted to commander when higher officer got fever; he wasn’t a natural, with thick glasses and a squeaky voice. The landing in Cuba was uncontested but the Spaniards were heavily entrenched on San Juan Hill outside Santiago (near Guantanamo Bay). The Rough Riders took heavy casualties (33%), but Roosevelt proved fearless (and lucky) under fire. Ultimately two weeks of naval shelling won the “splendid little war.”
Presidential accomplishments included Panama Canal, Russo-Japanese War, Great White Gleet, and Government reforms—many of which laid foundation for New Deal.
Roosevelt believed Taft was a progressive like himself, but Taft was a conservative by instinct, emotion, and ideology—acting more as a judge than an activist. Cracks opened quickly, with Taft as ‘yes man’ to Old Guard removing many of Roosevelt’s appointees and criticizing his legacy (Canal, US Steel).
Roosevelt did not want his Africa journey to be seen as a “game butchering trip,” so brought the Smithsonian to give it a scientific angle. With nearly 300 people, they bagged 512 animals including 11 elephants. The trip ended with a fame tour through Italy, Germany, and UK.
Ran in 1912 due to anger at Taft, personal ambition, and keen sense of duty. Bull Moose ideology was “New Nationalism,” which argued for Hamiltonian strong central government but without elitism. Proposed sweeping reforms including direct election of Senators, votes for women, reduced tariffs, abolishment of child labor, and unemployment insurance.
After splitting the Republican vote in 1912, he went from hero to villain and planned an challenging exploration in the River of Doubt in the Amazon. He spent his last years in almost psychopathic opposition to President Wilson, calling him weak in his hesitancy to join WWI (perhaps jealous of his opportunity). He almost led a unit to Europe and lost his youngest son, fighter pilot Quentin.
Tracks the history of comedy from Vaudeville (Marx brothers) to Radio (Frank Fay) to Nightclubs/Mob (Joe E. Lewis) to Television/Late Night (Jack Paar). The boom was the 1980s, where an explosion of clubs developed stars outside NYC, San Francisco and Las Vegas.
Jerry Seinfeld’s early acts were highly profane, until he challenged himself to eliminate F-word. Kramer was based on Larry David’s pot-smoking hallmate named Kenny Kramer.
Comedy Central was created in 1990. Conan O’Brien emerged from the Letterman-Leno feud. Chicago (Second City) was nurturing Steve Carell, Stephen Colbert, and Chris Farley. Demetri Martin got his start on the Daily Show, which premiered 1996; Colbert in 2005.
Twitter became the perfect medium for a short-form joke, while podcasting proliferated free comedy (Scott Aukerman created Earwolf in 2010).
Zarqawi was a Jordanian drunken street thug and momma’s boy whose family steered him toward religion to straighten him out, but he radicalized and arrived in Afghanistan just as the mujahedeen ended. After arrest for a plot against an Israeli outpost, he emerged as a leader in prison. He was granted amnesty when Abdullah II became king (common practice) and UBL granted him start-up funding to run a training camp in the Levant. Even before the U.S. invasion, Zarqawi was broadening his targets beyond Israel and the Jordanian government. Bush declined airstrike strike on Zarqawi’s camp but he featured heavily in Powell’s UN speech, which enhanced his rock-star status among jihadis. Even after losing his camp, Zarqawi conducted a series of sophisticated, large-scale terrorist attacks in close succession. US missteps (e.g. de-baathification) drove recruitment. In Aug 2003, Canal Hotel bombing drove out NGOs and Imam Ali Mosque sparked a civil war with Shi’a (also UN HQ, Baghdad Hotel, Red Cross sites). McChrystal was feet away but Zarqawi escaped through a second-floor window; drone malfunction doomed another near catch. Nick Berg beheading (May 2004) elevated him to emir and made AQI an official franchise. UBL ordered him to disrupt Iraqi elections, but brutality damaged AQ reputation. Jordanian Radisson hotel bombing (Nov 2005) turned masses against him and Askari Mosque (Feb 2006) attack drove Sunni Awakening. Zarqawi killed in air strike June 2006. All assumed soft-spoken Assad would fall, but he had powerful friends in Iran and Russia, and strategically released radical inmates to justify brutal crackdowns. Zarqawi’s followers lacked resources, fighters, sanctuary, and a cause but found all four in Syria. Created al-Nusra Front as an offshoot in Syria which never fully integrated back into ISIS. Baghdadi was uniquely positioned to unite the group as a bona fide Sharia expert with a solid Sunni-Iraqi pedigree. Ambassador Rob Ford had several close calls, but calls for arming moderates were rejected in Washington. In 2013-4, ISIS burst back on the scene an army, conquering Raqqa, Fallujah, and Mosul finding support from Sunnis who felt abused by the Shi’a Maliki government. Once they realized the brutality of their rule (e.g. daily executions), it was too late.
US-KSA relationship is resilient but increasingly transactional, with common interests but not values. Primary challenges are (1) Israel-Palestine conflict; (2) role of Wahhabi Islam in Saudi Policy; (3) pursuit of political reform in the Arab world. MBS Vision 2030 critical but uncertain. Yemen an expensive quagmire, Iran rivalry escalating. Collapse more likely from military than extremists.
Ibn Saud and FDR, Truman (1945-1953)
Foundation, USS Quincy: Oil for Security (Standard Oil Company; Dhahran air base)
Split on Zionism, but FDR promised no action against Arabs (Truman “betrayed” in 1947)
Faisal and Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon (1953-1975)
Faisal architect of modern KSA (oil revenues, export Islam) and special US relationship
Kennedy privately pressed internal reforms (e.g. slavery illegal)
1967 Six-Day War shifted KSA chief rivalry from Nasser’s Egypt to Israel
1973 embargo thrashed US economy, forced Nixon/Kissinger to engage
Royal family instability (Faisal power struggle with Saud; assassinated by nephew in 1975)
Khalid and Carter (1975-1982)
Shocks to the alliance: 1978 Egypt-Israel Framework was not comprehensive and betrayal of KSA. 1979 Iranian Revolution overthrew ally against USSR and threatened KSA monarchy.
Boons to the alliance: 1979 Grand Mosque attack revealed vulnerability of royal family. 1979 USSR invasion of Afghanistan allied US and KSA behind mujahedeen.
Fahd and Reagan, Bush (1982-1992)
Fahd playboy and night owl; added “Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques” title for brand.
Lebanon and Iran-Iraq wars pushed closer to Reagan (despite Iran-Contra setback).
AIPAC blocked US arms sales, KSA went to UK (Tornados) and China (IRBMs).
Bush’s Gulf War and Madrid Conference were pinnacle of US-KSA alliance.
Abdallah and Clinton, Bush (1993-2008)
Abdallah cautious, pious; de facto ruler from 1995 Fahd stroke to 2015 death.
Clinton pushed Oslo/Camp David but failed; dual containment of Iraq and Iran.
Bush unenthusiastic peace process, Abdullah refused to meet until endorsed two-state solution
KSA supported Afghanistan invasion; but uninformed on Iraq (provided quiet assistance)
2003-06 terrorism surge facilitated CT cooperation; but lingering unease around (unlikely) 9/11 connections
Abdallah and Salman, Obama and Trump (2009-2017)
Obama tried to reset relations with Muslim world, but angered Saudis over outreach to Iran (e.g. nuclear deal) and Arab Spring policy (e.g. abandonment of Mubarak, unease with Bahrain)
Salman long-time governor of Riyadh, fundraiser, and “sheriff” of the family; Sudairi line. Consolidated power, appointing MBN, then MBS, successors.
Trump courts KSA even more zealously than Obama. Accomplishments empty but flattered him with opulence.
Sandberg’s second husband Dave Goldberg (SurveyMonkey CEO) died suddenly while running on a treadmill in 2015.
“Embrace the suck.” Don’t try to control grief, but listen to it, keep it close, and let it run its course. Don’t blame yourself, assume permanence, or let it create self doubt in other areas of your life. Count your blessings and find silver linings (it always could have been worse). The five stages of grief (denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance) don’t proceed linearly. Journaling helps because labeling negative emotions make them easier to deal with. Unexpected challenges often lead to personal growth (personal strength, deeper relationships, new possibilities). Finding community is critical to recovery.
Always ask how people are doing: “How are you today?” is better than “How are you?” Acknowledge pain, say you care, and are available to talk anytime. Offer specific things you can do to help.
Humanity is moving from* Homo Sapiens* to Homo Deus. Over its first two millennia, it has largely conquered starvation, disease, and war; it now seeks to achieve:
Immortality: death critical to religious afterlife, but anathema to modern medicine. Life expectancy could reach 150 by 2100—with dramatic implications for economies and family structures.
Happiness: policies increasingly focused on improving citizen wellbeing rather than expanding territory or even GDP.
Divinity: medicine increasingly focused on upgrading humans into gods in lieu of curing the sick.
Will also see the collapse of humanism, as religion fades and humans become replaceable by technology.
Emotions are biochemical algorithms necessary for survival (like food, water, and shelter).
Humans marginalized animals for their purposes (using religion to justify), just as may someday be marginalized by superior AI. Humans don’t have more consciousness/soul than animals, but are the only species to imagine/create webs of intersubjective meanings (e.g. laws).
These networks rely on a delicate balance between truth and fiction (can’t organize masses of people without some myth). Computers and bioengineering will blur the lines between truth and fiction as people reshape reality to match their pet fictions.
Religions often mix up ethical judgements with factual statements. The revolution of modernity was gaining faith in humanity (act not according to the Bible but according to impact on humans/harm principle)
In modernity, humans are trading away meaning for power (no grand God-given script, but greater autonomy).
Humans don’t have free will, firing neurons make decisions; the “narrative self” assigns meaning to scientific outcomes.
Predictions:
**Technology will render humans economically and militarily useless
Humans losing economic value because intelligence is decoupling from consciousness. (SciFi assigns consciousness to technology, but it doesn’t need it). Agriculture-industry-services-?
Autonomous weapons inevitable, though ethical algorithms can help make warfare more humane.
**Humans will cede individual authority to be managed by external algorithms
**Inequality will worsen, with only a few elite superhumans remaining relevant
US-Ukrainian relations 1991-2004. Early successes included persuading Ukraine to give up its 2,500 tactical nuclear warheads and hundreds of strategic delivery systems. Despite weaker relations in the Bush years, Ukraine committed 2,000 troops to Iraq stabilization. Intractable difficulties have been the slow pace of reform, endemic corruption, and poor elections (2004 Orange Revolution, 2013 Maydan Protests). Reform is hindered by a lack of political will and dysfunctional relationship between president and prime minister. The corruption was embodied by Viktor Yanukovych whose democratic backsliding permitted Russian interference. Lessons:
Creating new institutions to replace old ones can be easier than trying to reform old institutions (e.g. need decisive National Security Council)
Washington fails to fully understand internal political dynamics in Kyiv—issues require high level (i.e. presidential) engagement to be addressed. Be blunt (subtlety doesn’t translate) and incentivize with “tough love.”
US should sustain sanctions, strengthen NATO (though Ukraine will not be joining), and provide some lethal assistance.
Russian annexation of Crimea occurred peacefully through strategic deployment of “little green men” and a crony referendum. This has done significant damage to the European security order and Russia is unlikely to ever let it go.
Donbas (Donetsk, Luthansk) incursion was met heavy with resistance. Even giving disputed territory to Russia is unlikely to the solve the problem—Russia wants to maintain frozen conflict to keep Kyiv off balance.
In describing how the U.S. became the world’s largest jailer, we focus on national campaigns and federal legislation instead of more mundane local directives–focuses on DC.
Many of the 1970s war on crime policies which have led to mass incarceration were championed by black politicians who feared the gains of the Civil Rights movement were being undermined by lawlessness and thus emphasized strict criminal justice (marijuana, guns).
Mandatory minimums were pushed by key black politicians and police leadership as a way to deter crime and enforce equal sentencing across rich and poor neighborhoods.
Black Commissioner Burtell Jefferson pushed for racial equality within the ranks, but not in treatment of the population.
The late 1980s violent crack cocaine epidemic led Mayor Marion Barry to push “warrior policing” which normalized heavy handed tactics in patrols, searches, and asset forfeiture.
As first black DC US Attorney, Eric Holder pushed “Operation Ceasefire,” pretext stops as a means of searching and seizing guns (but allowed class/racial profiling, enforced variably across wards) [NYC pedestrian equivalent is Stop-and-Frisk]
2014 decriminalization of marijuana a positive development, but politician’s focus on “nonviolent drug offenders” is less than 20% of the current prison population.
Recommendations: Pretrial diversions to mental health treatment/drug treatment (addiction is a public health problem), community policing, adequate funding for public defenders, eliminating mandatory minimums, building quality schools inside detention centers, and job training.
Among the first data scientists to get access to Google Search data.
Social science is becoming real science and is poised to improve our lives. Gut feelings (a la Gladwell’s Blink) are often misleading; big data can help. Good data sources are searches, views, clicks, and swipes. Bad sources are surveys and social media which lack incentives for honesty. Google Search has become a new confessional (though can display bias toward unseemly because considered “private”). Doppelganger search: find examples of similar instance. The internet allows cheap and fast randomized experiments (e.g. “A/B testing”).
Fastest racehorses aren’t pedigree but organ size (i.e. left ventricle).
Women view a monotone voice as masculine.
Positive sentiment articles are more likely to be shared than negative.
People rarely smile in old photos because saw as paintings (which took a long time).
People lie around a third of the time.
About 5% of the male population is gay.
People pick their sports team loyalties around 8 years old, political views around 18.
Most successful people come from cities or college towns.
Cautions: More data is not always better. Google didn’t dominate search by returning more data but better data (we currently have better data on baseball than health). Avoid the curse of dimensionality (using so many independent variables you find chance correlation). Small data is an important supplement for validation/causality. Big data helps corporations target price discrimination, but also consumers through ratings/comparison shopping. Government can use in macro for policy design but avoid individual targeting.
Since prehistoric times, humans have lived in groups of 20-30 fighting for survival. In times of crisis, people tend to get along easily (e.g. London during Nazi blitz) because disasters allow individuals to experience a reassuring connection to others through suffering. Today, with so few challenges to survival, most men feel unnecessary and never have to ponder what they would risk dying for. Because trauma and violence are so rare, society can provide sympathy and resources but it also creates an identity of victimhood which can delay recovery. Mental illness (depression, suicides) has been increasing in tandem with affluence and urbanization. Humans need to feel intrinsic values (competence, authenticity, connection to others), but society emphasizes extrinsic values (beauty, money, status). PTSD results from the sudden shift from the former to the latter society. Almost everyone exposed to war suffers some short-term PTSD; around 20% of those in trauma have a form of long term PTSD. From an evolutionary perspective, PTSD is exactly the correct response: sleep lightly, stay vigilant, and avoid situations you can’t control. Trauma doesn’t correlate with more violence or danger (e.g. drone pilots are same). Self-reporting of PTSD leads to a misdiagnosis rate of near 50%. Men perform over 90% of spontaneous rescues of strangers, but women are more likely to display “moral courage.” When trapped in a mine, early leaders were action-driven “alpha-males” but once the escape attempts failed (and entered “survival period”), new leaders emerged who used patience and empathy to boost morale.
Defenders: In 1944, Hitler abandoned plans to invade England, meaning the decisive battle would be on the French coast (had to protect Germany’s industrial heartland and could not sustain a three-front war). Pas-de-Calais was closest beachhead and straight line to Berlin; Hitler tried to lure attack there with V-1 deployment. Rommel aggressively advocated forward deployed Panzers for counterattack (“Atlantic Wall”). He emphasized pouring concrete rather than providing sufficient training.
Attackers: Few amphibious operations have been successful in history. While Germans had land lines of communication and fixed fortifications, allies had the initiative. Operation Fortitude ensured surprise (dummy army under Patton in Dover, fake radio traffic, Double Cross turned spies, Ultra, elaborate security). Eisenhower said boat inventor Andrew Higgins won the war (“The man who relaxes is helping the Axis”). US Army was greenest in the world, though made many fearless. Eisenhower, a master of logistics, insisted a five-division assault at first light under half moon. There was no contingency plan—though he drafted an apology letter in case it failed. Training was intense—real ammunition, designed to make combat seem more mundane. Preparation was across the south of England, with careful precautions to not alarm Luftwaffe surveillance (Germans must have seen some but failed to draw conclusions).
Operation: “Overlord” was overall Normandy campaign; “Neptune” was beach landing. Set for Jun 5; troops received paper order “the hope and prayers of liberty-loving people everywhere march with you” (most soldiers saved it). Storm delayed until Jun 6 (paratroopers wanted even further delay).
Paratroopers (00:00-04:00): Hindered by anti-aircraft fire and thick clouds, Pathfinders got lost. With planes flying too fast and low, jumping was pure chaos—landed on planes, fires, floods, and church steeples. One paratrooper couldn’t find other allied forces for five days. But able to disrupt lines of communication, confuse Germans, and prevent concentrated counterattack. Used cows to avoid mine fields. Estimated 10% casualty rate.
Aerial Bombardment (00:00, 06:00): More than 14,000 sorties of high-flying B-17 (Flying Fortresses) and low-flying B-26 (Marauders). Faced almost no Luftwaffe resistance and P-38 fighter escorts were largely unnecessary.
Naval Bombardment (05:50): Minesweepers (255), LCT flotilla, battleships (6), cruisers (20) and destroyers (68). German E-boat (fast-attack boat) patrols were cancelled because of bad weather. Artillery was accurate but largely ineffective due to effective German fortifications.
Infantry Assault (06:30): Underwater demolition teams, infantry, tanks, vehicles. German snipers aimed for Army medics (universally praised as the bravest). Overall casualty rate around 5%, but for first two assault waves was near 50%.
Utah: Overcame logistical challenges to put ashore over 20,000 men in 15 hours.
Omaha: Best fortified, high ground at beachhead to overcome. Misplaced landings left infantry bunched in easy targets for slaughter. Most assumed failure—Bradley considered retreat but had no working radios. True to test of leadership/courage. Rangers at Pointe-du-Hoc took cliffs using grapples in 15 minutes, proceeded to achieve objectives despite 75% casualties.
Gold: British generally used gadgets (small subs to direct landings). Quickly overwhelmed Germans putting 25,000 men ashore at cost of 400 casualties.
Juno: Canadian revenge for disastrous 1942 Dieppe attempt. Landed 21,400 at cost of 1200 casualties.
Sword: British put 29,000 men ashore at cost of 630 casualties.
Conclusions:
Axis
Command and Control was disastrous. Jodl refused to wake Hitler; Rommel in Germany for wife’s birthday; other officers were wholly unprepared and afraid to take the initiative.
Troops were largely Russian and Polish POWs with low morale and eager to surrender.
Luftwaffe was totally absent due largely to administrative and fuel problems. Kriegsmarine was likewise a non-factor; largely hunting merchant ships.
Hitler’s V-1s were not ready, and when they were a week after D-Day, he launched at the wrong target (London, instead of military targets).
Allies
Should have dropped paratroopers at first light—darkness and radio silence created chaos.
B-17 bombing was so inaccurate, should have targeted larger inland targets (e.g. rail depots).
Could have lengthened the pre-invasion naval bombardment without losing surprise.
Intelligence brilliantly identified German fortifications, but failed to recognize the difficulties of fighting in the hedgerows.
Born Denison, TX; grew up in Abilene, KS. At West Point, disciplined for smoking and poker. Enthusiasm for football exceeded his ability. First assignment (like Grant) was in all-important logistics. Though devastated he never made it to Europe during WWI, silver lining was he was not shocked into excessive caution by futility of trench warfare—and tank corps experience made him an early proponent of maneuver. Eisenhower served on series of staffs: Fox Conner (Panama) introduced him to Clausewitz’s work; John Pershing (Paris) for whom he wrote the definitive army history of WWI; Douglas MacArthur (Washington, Philippines) taught the pitfalls of arrogance in command; George Marshall catapulted Eisenhower above hundreds of more senior officers to make him, after Pearl Harbor, the Army’s chief planner. He was renowned for knowledge of procedure, mastery of nuance, political sensitivity, and ability to translate decisions into action.
Ike struggled at Columbia, finding consensus-driven academia trivial compared to major developments in Washington. He accepted NATO Supreme Commander while privately considering political options. Truman twice offered to bow out if Ike would run as a Democrat. Eisenhower rudely snubbed Truman a traditional greeting at inauguration, but later thanked him for ordering his son home from Korea for it. First cabinet called “eight millionaires and a plumber” (most were new to both him and government).
As President, Eisenhower tactfully saved the Republican party from isolationism and McCarthyism. As celebrity, he felt no need to prove himself and moved easily among foreign leaders. He ended a three-year, no-win war in Korea with honor, protected Formosa from invasion, faced down Khrushchev over Berlin, and restored stability in Lebanon. He believed the US should not go to war unless national survival was at stake and resisted calls for preventive war against China and the USSR. His approval averaged 64%, the highest since WWII.
SUMMATION: Eisenhower lacked the talents of Bradley, Patton and Montgomery. But his ability to weigh costs against benefits, delegate authority, communicate clearly, cooperate with allies, maintain morale and see how all the parts of a picture related to the whole were unmatched. Some believe Eisenhower lacked strategic vision, and was more an administrator who managed consensus toward a common goal. But his tasks were daunting—victory was never inevitable nor were his jobs secure. He did not posture or pose for the press or issue grandiloquent communiques, but his greatest accomplishment may have been making his presidency look bland (only 20th Century president to deliver eight years peace and prosperity). Focus, common sense, and simplicity were his recipe for his success.
Today’s “Big Me” culture nurtures resume virtues over eulogy virtues, forcing us to obsess over highly competitive career accomplishments while losing sight of moral stakes and key relationships. Caused by a variety of economic and technological changes (e.g. social media). Big Me culture bolstered women/civil rights but has gone too far, leaving us less morally articulate and more materialistic/individualistic. The goal of life is not happiness, but to confront our weaknesses and build strong inner character in ourselves while being of service to the world. Case studies of individuals who waged internal struggle against themselves to emerge with self-respect:
Frances Perkins: A vocation is not a career, but a calling. The Triangle Shirtwaist Fire called her into duty, leading her to public service and ultimately Secretary of Labor.
Dwight Eisenhower: People rarely commit big sins out of the blue, but walk through a series of doors. Eisenhower racked up demerits at West Point for gambling and smoking. Moderation is about understanding the inevitability of conflicting values and making slight adjustments. Just before JFK’s inaugural touted hope, courage, and boldness, Eisenhower’s farewell warned of hubris, celebrated prudence, and called for balance.
Dorothy Day: Loneliness is not only solitude, but spiritual isolation. Suffering drags you past the superficial and gives a more accurate sense of one’s own limitations. The resolution is not pleasure, but turning moral bad into good (e.g. foundations for children).
George C. Marshall: Marshall lagged academically but was motivated by his older brother’s suggestion he would disgrace the family name. Marshall was such a valuable aid, his superiors sometimes held him back from getting his own command (though contrary to popular belief, he saw more combat in WWI than most). Institutions are under attack today, because of their own failure and the Big Me culture.
A. Philip Randolph: Civil Rights leaders are transfixed by the book of Exodus because the Israelites had to reconcile passion with patience, authority with power sharing, and clarity of purpose with self-doubt. Randolph championed nonviolent resistance tactics.
Mary Anne Evans (aka George Eliot): Love flips you between highs and lows whilst exposing your deepest vulnerabilities. It is not a finite resource—but expands with use. Eliot defied social norms falling in love with a married man, but became a fantastic writer.
St. Augustine: If you organize your life around your own wants, others become objects for the satisfaction of your own desire. Augustine believed it was prideful to think we have autonomy over our lives, but should surrender to God and use his grace to achieve good.
Samuel Johnson: A brilliant student, but rebellious, rude, and lazy. Viewed imagination as something to be feared. Deficiencies become incentives to perfect associated skills (e.g. not a great orator despite a stammer, but because of it).
Created 1957 in response to Sputnik, DARPA has never allowed the U.S. to be taken by scientific surprise. In 1970, hindered by move to Rosslyn and Mansfield Amendment restricting R&D, but post-Vietnam renewed focus on hard science. With annual budget of $3B, DARPA hires contractors, academics, and others to do research.
Hydrogen Bomb: During the 1954 Bikini Atoll test, there was a perceived chance it might catch the atmosphere on fire.
ENIAC/MANIAC: Electronic (Mathematical) Numerical Integrator and Computer was 100 feet long, developed by RAND/Johnny Von Neumann.
Nuclear Policy: Game theory cast doubt on Mutually Assured Destruction. 1957 Gaither Report estimated thousands of USSR ICBMs when they had four. ICBMs allowed 26 minutes until doomsday. Plan to dig trenches along highways so people could jump out of cars and bury themselves.
Missile Defense: Christofilos Effect suggested exploding a large number of nuclear weapons in space could create “an Astro-dome like defensive shield made up of high-energy electronics trapped in the earth’s magnetic field just above the atmosphere.” Three tests proved limited in intensity and short-lived. Reagan pushed SDI (“Star Wars”) which investigated directed energy.
Satellites: SAMOS (SIGINT), GEODESY (mapping), NOTUS (communications), TRANSIT (navigation), MIDAS (early warning), and TIROS (first weather satellite).
Vietnam Gadgets: silent shallow-water paddleboat; scent for dogs not humans; silent tree-top power-glider; AR-15 semiautomatic rifle (became M16); Agent Orange to starve and expose VietCong. The Jasons (elite, self-selected club of physicists and mathematicians) explored possible use of electronic fence/nuclear weapons on Ho Chi Minh Trail. Protests prompted exploration of nonlethal (e.g. strobes, laser radiation, microwaves, loud noises, tagging).
Psychological Operations: While CIA explored mind control, RAND anthropologists pessimistic reports on failure to win hearts and minds were buried by classification.
Biological Weapons: Two key Soviet defectors revealed effort to create stealthy hybrid of smallpox and Ebola (would remain resident for long time undetected). DARPA focused on detection, protection, diagnosis, and countermeasures.
ARPANET: J.C.R. Licklider proposed a “network” of computers to collect information across multiple platforms and integrate them. Sensors included seismic, strain, magnetic, infrared, electromagnetic, and acoustic.
Cuban Missile Crisis demonstrated need for better command and control.
JSTARS started in DARPA.
Stealth: Started in 1957 when the CIA tried to reduce the cross-section of the U-2. F-117 was a DARPA program code-named Have Blue.
Night Vision: Immediate operational value, even during day in Gulf War due to black smoke moving across burning Kuwaiti oil fields.
Global Positioning Systems: Began as a classified military program, splintered into each service, then reunited in 1973 under NAVSTAR. Opened to public in 2000. Combined with precision weapons, program Assault Breaker created “automated reconnaissance-and-strike complex.”
SIMNET: Jack Thorpe championed using simulators to train with new equipment like jammers and skills you could not practice until first day of real combat.
Human Performance: Made possible by 1990s progress of biotechnology, information technology, and nanotechnology. Fatigue responsible for overwhelming number of casualties.
Artificial Intelligence: DARPA briefly had Total Information Awareness program under Adm. Poindexter before backlash over privacy concerns.
Counter-IED: IEDs and EFPs responsible for 63% of deaths. Tried out jammers, persistent surveillance, armor, and EOD robots, Human Terrain System (biometrics).
Unmanned: Wasp, Black Widow (small), Falcon HTV-2 (hypersonic), XS-1 (space), Hydra (undersea), Atlas/Valkyrie (humanoid), AlphaDog (animal-like), etc.
Economics is the science of recognizing secondary and general consequences of actions and policies.
All public works come from taxes, and taxes discourage production. Government credit (loans) divert production (i.e. subsidies are a tax on successful businesses).
Can’t justify public sector jobs by purchasing power provided to employees via wage
Technological improvements don’t create unemployment, but rather:
increase wages (through greater productivity)
increase standards of living (by lowering prices for consumers)
Goal should not be full employment but rather full production. “Spread-the-work” schemes falsely assume there is a fixed amount of work to be done. Government should not intervene to save a particular industry which cannot survive independently.
Prices depend on supply and demand and should not be manipulated by government price fixing (including minimum wage).
Profits incentivize efficiency in production. Corporate profits average less than six percent of the national income.
Saving by investing is another form of spending—and good for the economy.
Focus on barriers internal to women, but adds generalized statements about “male” behaviors creating external barriers based on sparse research. Acknowledges the conversation can’t start with “I deserve a higher title because I’m a woman.” Crying at work maybe be a fact of life but is still not productive.
Fake confidence until you feel it; overcorrect for weaknesses.
Most important criteria for choosing a company is growth–more things to do than people to do them spurs personal development.
Be concise with mentors–never ask questions you can find answers to online, be gracious, and have something to offer them. Set up periodic time to provide two way feedback, at least until you are comfortable enough to provide it. Foster authentic communication by speaking openly about your own weaknesses.
When negotiating salary, can suggest someone more senior encouraged it (“my manager suggested I talk with you about compensation”)
Lived in Jersey until four; Kalamazoo backyard bordered high school field. Selected fifth in the draft behind bigger players who all washed out. Manager Buck Showalter gave Jeter number 2; equipment manager tried to change to 19 but Jeter asked for 2 back.
Remained easy going and confident throughout early struggles. Leadership emerges from calmness and sense of humor (before WS, stuck finger in manager’s chest saying, “Mr. T, this is the most important game in your career”). Don’t make it bigger than it is and don’t be afraid to fail. Mastered fine line between taking the game seriously to win but still having fun/taking pressure off. Yankees had practiced “Flip” play once in practice, but Jeter’s instincts still awesome. Whenever he was asked about the opposing pitcher, Jeter would say “this guy fucking sucks.” Named captain in 2003. Never hit 25 HRs in a season; never won an MVP; but 14-time all-star and five-time world championship.
After A-Rod called him overrated, Jeter responded cared more about championships than individual stats. Whereas A-Rod constantly needed affirmation, Jeter had a silent confidence. A-Rod had a way of making things bigger than they were and putting his foot in his mouth. Jeter generally left A-Rod on an island.
Jeter was receptive to Cashman message his defense needed improvement—got a special trainer to improve quickness. But Jeter was furious at Cashman for allowing salary negotiations to go public .
2008 was Jeter’s first season he didn’t make the playoffs. But 2009—the first in the new stadium—they finally won again, taking the pressure off the A-Rod relationship.
Jeter went to great lengths to keep his personal life secret, only going to VIP clubs and leaving separately from his woman (or women). When frustrated with NY tabloid coverage, went directly to Associated Press to give his story.
BLUF: Bush moved through life torn between an ambition to win and an impulse towards empathy.
“Poppy” excelled at Greenwich Country Day School, but was young, sickly, and intellectually mediocre at Andover. After Pearl Harbor, immediately joined the Navy at 17. Graduated flight school in June 1943 as youngest naval aviator flying a Grumman avenger torpedo bomber. Shot down over Chichi-Jima and lost two crew members but rescued by submarine…could have gone home but chose to stay in Pacific.
Bush always had politics in mind (father was Senator), but moved to Texas for business experience. He first drilled and later scouted offshore sites around the world, creating Zapata Petroleum Company (named to show up last in the telephone listings). Daughter Robin died of Leukemia at four.
Lost Senate elections from Texas in 1964 and 1970 (won House in 1966).
Nixon appointed Ambassador to UN (1971-73), and Chairman of the Republican National Committee (1973-74).
Ford appointed Envoy to China (1974-75) and D/CIA (1976-77).
Reagan chose Bush for the 1980 ticket after Ford removed himself from consideration. Played a stabilizing role as VP, often reassuring U.S. allies. No evidence Bush knew of diversion to the contras—saving his political life.
After election in 1988, Bush saw himself as a guardian, not a revolutionary—“a figure of conservative consensus at home and cautious creativity abroad.” Achievements include national education goals, free trade, WH Office of National Service, Clean Air Act, and Americans with Disabilities Act. Pragmatic and patient foreign policy (Tiananmen Square, Wall collapse, Gulf War, Yeltsin coup) and master of personal diplomacy. Sunk in 1992 by economy/tax policy (lacked passion for domestic policy), and health trouble (thyroid/Grave’s Disease).
After presidency, remained engaged but quiet, splitting time between Houston and Kennebunkport. On a trip to Kuwait, Iraqi intelligence tried to assassinate. Jeb more serious, thought to be better politician, but lost Florida the day George W. won Texas. 43 called 41 daily to discuss decisions, but sought to differentiate himself by projecting strength and action rather than careful reaction (43 saw himself as more T.Roosevelt or Reagan). 43 wrote 41 on day of Iraq invasion: “decision to use force to liberate Iraq and rid the country of WMD was emotional…Iraq will be free, the world safer.” REVEALS FAITH IN WMD INTEL AND INHERENT OPTIMISM. 41 supported 2003 invasion despite private anxieties about mission creep and pugnacious cowboy image, attributed to Rumsfeld (longtime rival of 41) and Cheney (former ally who moved right).
SUMMATION: Lapses included opposition to the 1964 Civil Rights Act to please Texas conservatives and reversal of views on abortion and Reaganomics for a spot on the 1980 ticket, but he happily signed a same-sex marriage license late in life (and left NRA after OK City bombing). His “discomfort with the rhetorical requirements of his office was one of his cardinal weaknesses”—he understood he was no Reagan and preferred press conferences to speeches because he could jump around between topics in a way that matched his hyperdrive. Used TX or NE identities when politically useful (SUCCESSFUL POLITICIANS ARE CHAMELEONS). Bush had rivals but virtually no enemies. A “gracious but subtly demanding boss”—thumb tapping reflected impatience.
BLUF: Dutch founding of NYC and New Amsterdam laid the seeds for it to become a global melting pot.
After two failed British-funded trips, the Dutch funded Henry Hudson to go southwest when he found NYC in 1608. Hudson—looking for Asia—considered it a failure, but Dutch traders saw commodities. Mannahata was the Indian word for hilly island—Dutch bought for $24. Peter Minuit became the first leader of New Amsterdam, which became a trading and immigration hub, unlike the struggling pilgrims at Plymouth. Van den Bogaert struck a deal with the Mohawks to protect the colony. Willem Kieft waged an unpopular war against the Indians, while Van der Donck (VDD) and the Board of Governors demanded his removal. Dutch were fighting the Spanish in the Caribbean/Brazil while England was fighting its civil war. The peg-legged Stuyvesant instilled militaristic discipline on the colony and exhibited masterful diplomacy with surrounding colonies (primary threat was English, not Swedes or Indians). VDD arrested on treason, and Stuyvesant was embroiled in a political scandal selling muskets to Indiana for personal gain. VDD wrote a letter of complaints and presented it to the States General in The Hague in 1649, making a political case as well as recruiting settlers (published pamphlet “Remonstrance”). Dutch declared war against England in 1652. For most of the war, VDD was trapped in Amsterdam writing A Description of New Netherland. In 1653 New Amsterdam was declared a city providing the structure to keep peace among a dozen different cultures VDD was killed when Indians attacked his country house. British diplomat Downing lulled Dutch into complacency while surrounding the port. Without the support of his own citizens, Stuyvesant was forced to surrender. English have since written the history (New York named after James Duke of York, brother of King Charles II).
Dutch society was among the most sophisticated societies on earth, with leading intellectuals in science and law.
Dutch global expansion during its century of empire was built around not settlement colonies but outposts which explains why the Dutch language is not spread the way English is.
New Amsterdam became free trading hub of the Atlantic, with freedom to practice religion and culture of tolerance, which attracted thousands to the settlement (the village of Harlem had families from six different parts of Europe).
Provided a form of citizenship, even to the poor. While equality was not perfect, it was highly meritocratic and America’s first melting pot.
Bannon was the key architect of Trump’s victory by (1) providing an internally coherent worldview which accommodated Trump’s own views on trade and foreign affairs and (2) creating an infrastructure of conservative organizations working together to bring down Hillary Clinton.
Bannon Career: Shaped by Norfolk blue-collar upbringing (pugnacious) and religious education (Western society under attack). Won insurgent campaign for student president at Virginia Tech (1976). Enrolled in Navy with dreams of SecDef, but blamed Eagle Claw disaster (1980) on Carter and abandoned Democrats forever. Energized by Reagan, transferred to Pentagon and Georgetown SSP (1985), but realized real power was on Wall Street. After Harvard Business School and Goldman Sachs, started firm to grow rich off dying Hollywood production houses (invested in Seinfeld and dabbled in executive producing). Moved to Hong Kong to join a World of Warcraft “gold farming” company which collapsed but taught him the power of highly-motivated online communities. After 9/11, wrote/directed In the Face of Evil which led him to Breitbart. Understood technology was as important as content, and politics is downstream from culture. Personal motto: “Honey Badger don’t give a shit.” An autodidact in religion, Bannon’s ideology springs from French Muslim René Guénon’s Traditionalism, an anti-modernist view advocating control of borders, currency, and identity. Bannon cares not about appearances, but is akin to Trump as a high-energy, divorced, big talker who rarely sleeps.
Trump Campaign: Trump voted sporadically in life, but had an itch for public office since 1988 and grew noticeably more active following humiliation at the 2011 WH Correspondents dinner. The Apprentice showcased multiculturalism and was extremely popular with minority audiences, but Trump launched birther movement to raise profile among Republicans. Nearly settled for NY governor, but had larger ambitions. Trump trademarked “Make America Great Again” January 1, 2013. Funded by Bob Mercer, Trump assembled team through Roger Stone and David Bossie (disgraced Hill staffer and rabid anti-Clinton operative) who brought in Bannon and Kellyanne Conway. Stone pitched the “Build the Wall” idea to keep him focused on immigration, Trump latched on when it worked. Key enabling organizations were:
Breitbart (Bannon): Pushed plenty of false reporting but also facts to keep foot in mainstream (“anchor left, pivot right”).
Fox News’ audience was geriatric, so Bannon used alt-Right personalities like Milo Yiannopoulos raging against political correctness to mobilize young white males.
Understood readers don’t approach the news as an exercise in absorbing facts, but am ongoing drama with heroes and villains.
Breitbart London was also instrumental in fomenting Brexit; Nigel Farange gifted a painting of himself as Napoleon.
Government Accountability Institute (Peter Schweitzer): Published Clinton Cash, real reporting on Clinton Foundation financing which got mainstream to acknowledge her as untrustworthy.
Glittering Steel (Bannon): Movie production company which produced pro-Trump ads.
Cambridge Analytica (Mercer): Statistical models identified older, rural turnout and late turn towards Trump following Comey announcement.
First primary debate split Fox News between Megyn Kelly (establishment) and Sean Hannity (Trump). When Roger Ailes tried to make peace with Breitbart, Bannon said “go fuck yourself,” didn’t speak for a year, and refused to bail Ailes out of his sexual harassment downfall. Trump shrewdly focused on early “SEC” primaries in the south which gave him all the momentum he needed. He basked in nonstop media coverage. Trump realized the Republican dogma no longer had appeal—sought to rebrand Republicans as working man’s party. Campaign had constant infighting. After Lewandowsi angered Kushner and Manafort attracted bad press, Bannon took over despite no campaign experience. He ramped up “America First” and anti-Clinton rhetoric, which, despite what polls said, were seeping into the unconscious of the millions of Americans who had not yet made up their mind. Comey announcement may have pushed some “double haters” toward Trump. Most of Trump’s advisors thought he had a 30% chance of winning on election night. Deeply superstitious, Trump did not prepare a victory or concession speech.
Career: Youngest member of Nixon’s Committee to Re-elect the President (CREEP), regional political director for Reagan. Met Trump through Roy Cohn, told to run for president in 1987. 1996 swinger sex scandal forced him out of establishment and into the shadows.
In 2000, destroyed the Reform Party by getting Trump to run and spreading rumor Buchanan had an illegitimate child. Next, organized protests to intimidate Florida employees doing electoral recounts (“Brooks Brothers riot”). In 2004, was involved in forged documents which ended Dan Rather’s career and helped re-elect Bush. He received a tip from a hooker at a sex club that Eliot Spitzer wore black socks during sex.
Fueled Trump’s birther movement and designed his campaign as an outsider. Trump fired Stone because he garnered too much media attention, but continues to receive advice. Spread the rumor that Ted Cruz had extra-marital affairs. Stone threatened mob violence against any electors at convention who would try to block Trump. Stone was banned from CNN for a series of offensive tweets (still goes on Alex Jones InfoWars every day).
SUMMATION: Invented slash and burn politics: negative ads, PACs, and lobbying (firm with Black and Manafort). Morality is weakness. Hate is stronger than love. No boundaries. There’s no difference between politics and entertainment; you have to be outrageous to get noticed. Trump described system as rigged by super PACs and lobbying, then turns to Stone and Manafort who built that rigging. They picked up on some grassroots sentiment but really represented billionaires (e.g. most people don’t want to abolish the EPA).
Born in a log cabin in Kentucky, Lincoln lost his mother, sister, and girlfriend in childhood. He read everything he could (esp. Shakespeare) and practiced retelling stories he heard his father tell. Broke off engagement to Mary Todd twice and became suicidal—friends removed razors from his room. The death of son Eddie threw Mary into deep depression (at the time called “hypo” and diagnosed as a stomach trouble). Mental health does not mean freedom from anxiety and depression, but the ability to cope.
Lincoln possessed an extraordinary ability to convey practical wisdom in the form of humorous tales his listeners could remember and repeat. He studied slavery carefully before taking a stance, using his gifts as historian, storyteller, and teacher to combine humor and lucid logic. He rarely attacked opponents’ character—only their flawed logic (and never demonized slave owners, saying he’d do the same in their shoes).
Never wavered from his position slavery should be contained and would die on its own—Seward convinced him to take a harder stance. Arrived in Washington in 1847, took a controversial opposition to Polk’s Mexican-American War, denying him another term. In his last years, Henry Clay engineered the Missouri Compromise (1850), which created free states but enforced Fugitive Slave Act. Uncle Tom’s Cabin and the Kansas-Nebraska Act (1854) further inflamed abolitionists.* Dred Scott* (1857) was sweeping in its decision, ruling blacks were not included in the Constitution or Declaration of Independence. Lincoln understood pragmatic limits and did not openly advocate for blacks to be treated as equals, but historians struggle to find any instances of bigotry.
Lincoln pulled out of a race for Senate he was leading to ensure an anti-slavery candidate would win (while Seward and Bates lost friends in victory, Lincoln made friends in defeat). Seven debates with Democratic rival Stephen Douglas in Illinois in 1858 drew tens of thousands. (Structure: 1-hour, 1.5-hour response, .5-hour rebuttal). Lincoln won popular vote, lost seat, but widely circulated transcripts made him a national figure.
Of four 1860 Republican presidential contenders (Lincoln, William Seward, Salmon Chase, Edward Bates), each occupied a different position along the spectrum of growing opposition to slavery. Lincoln was his own political manager, set to become everyone’s second choice, and many turned against Seward at the convention.
Upon riding northern abolitionists past Douglas for presidency, Lincoln built his cabinet by selecting the strongest men from each faction of the Republican party. One month after the election, seven States voted to secede, and Seward led a desperate effort to save the union. One month after inauguration, Lincoln tried to head off Sumter crisis by sending food supply but orders were bungled and the confederates began shelling anyway. Lee considered succession “anarchy,” but could not “draw his sword” on his native Virginia.
MD secessionists cut telegraph lines and mail to DC, leaving it isolated from the north. Despite Baltimore riots, Lincoln wisely did not send troops, likely keeping MD in union. But he did suspend writ of habeas corpus at counsel of Seward. Seward deftly kept Europe out of the war while Chase financed it.
Demoralizing loss at Bull Run taught Lincoln importance of discipline; Confederates failed to capitalize by attacking Washington. Union Generals: Winfield Scott, George McClellan, Henry Halleck, Ulysses Grant. McClellan overestimated enemy forces (“Quaker canons”) and blamed others for his baffling inaction. He was openly disrespectful to Lincoln and Stanton, making the president wait while he slept one night. McClellan slow-rolled withdrawal from Peninsula Campaign, leaving Gen. Pope surrounded at Rappahannock. While the cabinet sought his removal, Lincoln promoted McClellan based on the troops’ devotion to him.
Lincoln was a master of timing (always waiting for the “fruit to ripen”) and wrote anonymous letters to gauge public reaction. He tried to resolve disputes privately first, but would use strategic leaks to prime public opinion prior to action (e.g. Gen. Fremont in Missouri). Lincoln refused to let subordinates take blame for his decisions.
Willie (almost Tad too) died in early 1862. Lincoln dealt with stress through writing (unsent letters), theater, and many evenings unwinding with Seward—much to the chagrin of Mary. The Soldiers Home cottage three miles away was a godsend for the family. Mary began visiting hospitals regularly.
Simon Cameron was a wily political boss but unfit for running the War Department so Lincoln replaced him with devoted Edwin Stanton. After a loss at Fredericksburg, Congress went after Seward, who tendered his resignation (along with Chase and Stanton) but Lincoln declined them. After each military loss, Lincoln would visit the camp to inspire the troops and draw confidence from them. He used humorous anecdotes to lighten the mood. In the summer of 1863, allowed blacks to fight; south responded by vowing to hang any POWs so Lincoln reciprocated.
Impatient with border states, Lincoln boldly decided to issue Emancipation Proclamation cabinet objections (Chase, Blair, Welles), though Seward convinced him to wait for a military victory.
After victories at Gettysburg and Vicksburg, Lincoln wrote a public letter to fight off rumors from pro-peace Democrats “Copperheads” that he had turned down a Confederate peace offer.
Lincoln had to balance Chase promoting his 1864 presidential run and Blair who openly criticised the president
In November 1863, Lincoln was asked to attend a ceremony to give proper burial to union soldiers at Gettysburg. He wrote his concise address on the train.
Grant was an unpretentious man of action–the opposite of McClellan. Congress made him the first Lieutenant General since G. Washington. Overland Campaign battles of attrition resulted in stalemate at siege of Petersburg and disaster at Battle of Crater as well as near taking of Washington by Gen Early.
Lincoln’s reelection was saved by the timely capture of Atlanta and McClellan’s defeatist platform. Lincoln heard southern concessions and would pay reparations but insisted on abolition of slavery (though stopped short of suffrage). Visited after capture of Richmond and Lee surrendered to Grant the next week (April 1865).
John Wilkes Booth planned to abduct Lincoln, but after war ended planned triple homicide. Seward was stabbed; Johnson’s assassin changed his mind; Lincoln was shot and died nine hours later.
Quotes:
“Books and your capacity to understand them are the same in all places…your resolution to succeed is more important than anything else”
“The Lord prefers common-looking people that is why he made so many of them.”
“A house divided against itself [on slavery issue] cannot stand.”
“With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it, nothing can succeed.”
Emancipation Proclamation: “I never in my life felt more certain that I was doing right than I do in signing this paper if my name ever goes into history it will be for this act and my whole soul is in it.”
Gettysburg Address: “Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal. Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battlefield of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live.”
On the Civil War: “It is a people’s contest…for maintaining in the world that form and substance of government whose leading object is to elevate the condition of men–to lift artificial weights from all shoulders, to clear the paths of laudable pursuit for all, to afford all an unfettered start and a fair chance, in the race of life.”
Second Inaugural: “With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right, as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation’s wounds.”
Mental health and trauma are our nation’s largest health problems. More than a quarter of kids were physically abused as a child. One in ten Americans take antidepressants. Mental health is interwoven with physical health (abused children are 50% more likely to have asthma).
In the 1970s, treatment for mental health disorders shifted from therapy to pharmacology (drugs), which raised the profile of psychiatry. But drugs are temporary fixes for symptoms which can distract from underlying issues. Doctors regularly confuse diagnoses of bipolar, depression, ADHD, or PTSD. PTSD was not diagnosed until 1980—too late for many Vietnam veterans. Alexithymia is lacking the ability to recognize and communicate feelings.
Trauma is not an event that took place in the past—it is the imprint of that experience on the mind brain and body. Trauma shuts down parts of the brain that put feelings into words but activate another region causing images to stick in one’s head. Traumatized people get stuck because they can’t integrate new experiences into their life. They don’t remember their accident but they relive it. Some child sex victims genuinely don’t even remember being assaulted.
Strong emotions can block pain—thus re-exposure to stress can provide relief from anxiety. People who cut themselves are rarely suicidal but trying to make themselves feel better the only way they know.
Strategies to Address:
Don’t try to escape it; own it. Goal is not desensitization, but integration: putting the traumatic event into the proper place in the arc of one’s life. Depression or aggression should be viewed as learned behaviors—the body needs to learn that the danger has passed in order to live in the present. Exposure therapy doesn’t work because in contrast to phobias, PTS is the result of a fundamental reorganization of the central nervous system based on an experience.
When talking to a victim, job is not to figure out what happened, but help them tolerate their feelings of the memories. Telling people how they should feel is always counterproductive. 90% of communication is nonverbal right brain—mirror their expressions.
Communicating fully is the opposite of being traumatized. Free writing, role play, communal activities (theater, music) can help embody emotions. Yoga can increase mindfulness. Neurofeedback uses EEG to measure brain activity. Brain is a mosaic of different minds—need leadership for them to work together.
At macro, can prevent trauma through good schools, social support, and fewer guns. Most important things for children are to feel secure, emotionally attached, and have agency.
Grandparents moved from Jackson, Kentucky to Middleton, Ohio in second wave of migration from Appalachia to Midwest (1940s). Revolving door of fathers left void in male role models. Pawpaw died and mother fell into substance abuse. Lived with Mamaw, who provided the crucial home without distraction. Enlisted in USMC and used GI Bill at OSU. With salary and training, gained independence and ability to provide. At Yale Law School, felt guilty for abandoning people of his hometown.
The hill people are not doing very well. A sense of doom about economic prospects saps ambition and foments apathy. Conservatives have fueled this by blaming government. In this environment, there is no trust of institutions and conspiracies run rampant. Trump rise explained not just by economic anxiety but total social decay (broken families/communities, opioid addiction, alcoholism). Also a feeling of condescension from elites who dominate the conversation.
Parallels between Appalachian hillbillies and blacks in inner cities: fierce loyalty to family, consolidated around factories which closed. The number of working class whites in high poverty neighborhoods is growing. “Not all rich people are bad, but all bad people are rich.”
People talk about hard work but not all embrace it. Many welfare recipients lived better than the rest. Credit cards let people spend more than they can afford.
Regular church attendees commit fewer crimes, are in better health, and make more money. For alcoholics, church provides a community of support; for mothers, offers a free home with job training and parenting classes.
“The American dream requires forward momentum.” Successful people don’t get jobs with resumes. They use social capital (networking, schmoozing, etc.).
Government/public policy can help people on the margins but the people also need to help themselves. Devote more resources to early education (pre-college).
Advocate liberal paternalism, or using nudges to alter people’s behavior in a predictable way without forbidding any options or significantly changing their economic incentives. Oppose bans, but also oppose blind adherence to “Just Maximize Choices” mantra.
Behavioral economic traps which necessitate nudges:
Automatic (Type I) and Reflective (Type II) systems
Anchoring: start with a known number and adjust in the appropriate direction.
Availability: assess the likelihood of risks by assuming how readily examples come to mind.
Representativeness: Stereotypes; flawed perception of randomness
Overconfidence/Optimism: e.g. 90% drivers consider themselves above average
Gains/Losses: Risk-averse; irrationally sensitive to losses
Status Quo Bias: General tendency to stick with the current situation.
Framing/Priming: choices depend in part on the way problems are stated and questions are asked
Temptations: Everyone made up of a far-sighted Planner and myopic Doer.
Peer Pressure: Humans tend to bend under social pressures
Examples of Nudges:
Retirement Saving: automatic enrollment, simplify choices, provide feedback/projections.
Lending: Simplification/transparency through RECAP (Record, Evaluate, Compare Alternative Prices) Report requiring lenders to report costs in two categories: fees and interest.
Prescription Drugs: Use intelligent assignment (currently random), offer RECAP.
Organ Donation: Use presumed consent (default yes) or mandated choice (force question).
Environment: Cap & trade system, Greenhouse Gas Inventory for disclosure.
Others: Automatic Tax Return, Charity Debit Card, eliminate road dividing lines, remove cafeteria trays, fake flies in urinal.
In an era of super-specialists, the volume and complexity of what we know has exceeded our individual ability to deliver its benefits correctly, safely, or reliability. Avoidable failures are common and persistent, not to mention demoralizing and frustrating across many fields.
Checklists provide a cognitive net to catch mental flaws inherent in all of us. Good checklists are precise, practical, and efficient (5-9 items). Helpful in addressing three types of problems:
Simple: baking a cake from a mix (just follow instructions)
Complicated: sending a rocket to the moon (hard but repeatable)
Complex: raising a child (unique)
Activation phenomenon: Giving people a chance to say something at the start activates their sense of participation and responsibility and willingness to speak up.
Examples:
Medicine: Over the course of a year, physicians evaluate an average of 250 different diseases and conditions. 60% of patients with pneumonia receive incomplete or inappropriate care.
Aircraft: B-17 deemed “too much airplane for one man to fly” until checklist cut back on accidents.
Construction: Buildings now remarkably safe.
Disaster Response: Katrina demonstrated flaws of being too rigid with procedures.
Finance: Used to identify risk areas, but rarely used.
Combines his family’s story in the Salinas Valley with the Old Testament (Cain and Abel). Themes/Quotes:
Individuality/Choice
“This I believe: that the free exploring mind of the individual human is the most valuable thing in the world and this I would fight for: the freedom of the mind to take any direction and wishes undirected and this I must fight against: any idea religion or government which limits or destroys the individual.”
Army beats your uniqueness out of you. Lee notes servants have less freedom but also less responsibility.
“All great and precious things are lonely.”
American standard translation of Bible orders men to triumph over sin (“thou shalt”). Hebrew word timshel (“thou mayest”) gives choice, throwing it back on man. Timshel set Sam free… Gave him the right to be a separate man.
“There glory of choice is what makes a man a man.” Mankind is neither compelled to pursue sainthood nor doomed to sin, but rather has the power to choose.
Evil/Greed
What is the world’s story? Humans are caught in a net of good and evil, virtue and vice. Evil must constantly respawn while good is immortal.
If you only see evil in people, then you only act evil (i.e. Cathy).
“A bribed man can only hate his briber.” “You have to crave something to be dishonest.” Wishing for things brings earned disappointment.
“Riches and idleness are the devil’s tools.” “There is no dissatisfaction like those of the rich.” “Money can’t stack up to pride in the thing you’re doing.”
War/Other
War not only legalizes murder but celebrates it.
There is no dignity to death in battle, just “a splashing about of human meat and fluid.” But there is a sweet dignity to the hopeless sorrow that comes over a family with a telegram.
Bias: “A rare person can separate observation from preconception.”
“So often men trip by being in a rush.” “Even the beaten can steal a little victory by laughing at defeat.”
History of US racial caste system:
Exploitation (slavery) to subordination (Jim Crow) to marginalization (mass incarceration)
Backlash to end of slavery was swift–remained legal as punishment for a crime.
Great Depression spurred swap in party positions on race relations (Democrats represented the poor)
High point of Civil Rights movement: Brown v Board (1954); Civil Rights Act (1964); Voting Rights Act (1965)
Proponents of racial hierarchy found they could install a new racial caste system without violating the law via mass incarceration. Nixon launched and Reagan escalated Wars on Drugs. Coincided with deindustrialization unemployment which caused inner cities to sell drugs. Clinton’s Crime bill (3 strikes, etc) was even more radical to look tough on crime.
Arguments:
Stop and frisk/blanket “consent” searches violate Fourth Amendment
Federal incentives target drugs over more serious crimes (funding, equipment, keep loot)
Drug crime unlike all other crime because consensual and common.
80% of drug arrests are for possession and 80% are for marijuana.
In DC, three of four black men will spend time in prison.
Suspects lack representation, force plea bargain, harsh mandatory minimums
Countless statistical studies find discrimination in arrests and sentencing
Differing responses to drunk driving and crack cocaine epidemics.
Black open-air drug dealing makes easier targets for police.
Easy for police to deny racial bias by citing any number of other factors.
Sandoval (2001) ruled victims of discrimination can no longer sue
Gangsta rap is a product of besieged communities embracing societal stereotypes.
Implications:
Civil rights lawyers choose a handful of cases to file, but need to mobilize thousands to make their cases in the court of public opinion.
Prisons have become big business and strong political opposition to criminal justice reform. Politicians pressured to appear “tough” on crime.
Globalization represents a much greater threat to the position of white men than “reverse discrimination”
Dropped out of Princeton, fired from jobs, and started BrainQUICKEN dietary supplement company.
DEAL: Definition, Elimination, Automation, Liberation
Flexibility more important than salary. Hourly wage better measure of wealth than annual income.
Focus on being productive instead of busy. Focus on not just efficiency but effectiveness.
Look for loopholes in the rules. Better to leverage strengths than fix weaknesses
Pareto’s law: 80% of the outputs result from 20%of the inputs.
Parkinson’s law: a task swells in importance and complexity based on the time allotted.
The opposite of happiness is boredom–excitement is cure all. Keys to happiness are continual learning and service.
Complete your most important task before 11am
Calling is more immediate, but emails force people to be concise
Use Google ads to test phrases, taglines, websites.
Career: NYC, UChicago, Tribune, Simon campaign, Axelrod & Assoc, turned down Clinton/Gore, Obama 2004 (lucky!), Edwards campaign (pushed out), Obama 2008/2012, WH strategic communications director 2009-2011.
Family challenges: Father suicide, daughter epilepsy, wife cancer.
Keys to campaigning: Understand the array of arguments to made for/against your candidate, test them in polling, cull the two/three most meaningful into a larger authentic narrative that communicates who your candidate is and why he or she is running. Many gaffes are disregarded, but those which confirm voters’ beliefs about candidates are deadly. When incumbents step down, voters rarely opt for replica of what they have, even when that outgoing leader is popular.
WH Senior Advisor: Met speechwriters for an hour each day. Keeper of message/idealistic flame. Set aside time with pollsters to stay in touch. Somali terrorist threat at 2009 inauguration. Bilats with Chinese highly scripted. Obama mix of humor/seriousness. “Hard things are hard!” Obama knew he wasn’t ready for first 2012 debate.
Clinton always gives handwritten notes.
War gaming is about external perspective and insight through role-playing opponents (or customers). War games may reveal gaps in intelligence or management communication. Hold them when you are making key decisions (e.g. launching a new product line). Types of games:
Landscape Games: What will competitors do?
Test Games: How will competitors react to our plans?
It should be:
Realistic: Be honest; objective is to narrow a competitor’s most likely moves
Empowering: Hold early enough you can still change course—not a rehearsal.
Inexpensive: No need for expensive consultants.
Simple: Participants should not be executives but diverse, mid-level managers.
Transparent: Prep with short intelligence briefing book; collect all analysis and share a summary.
Integrate Porter’s Five Forces Model, Four Corner Analysis, and Strategic Mapping (including cognitive and leadership analysis). Hot buttons include emotional issues, strong belief, and sacred cows. Blind spots represent obsolete assumptions, ineffective practices, and wishful thinking.
ABA asked Donovan to defend Rudolf Abel (arrested 1957) given his prior work with the Nuremberg Trials and Navy intelligence background. Why defend him?
Giving Abel a fair trial in the heat of McCarthyism reaffirms what separates the United States from the Soviet Union and other illiberal regimes.
Importance of defending the Constitution: “People never think about rights and privileges until they personally feel the need for them.”
Donated $10,000 payment to charity. Kept a diary to help clarify a complex legal case and prove he gave his defendant an honest defense. Abel slipped into the US from Canada, set up “art studio” in Brooklyn. Charges: (1) conspiracy to transmit atomic information—death; (2) conspiracy to gather information—10 years; (3) failure to register as foreign agent—5 years. Strategy:
Attack the government case as a violation of Fourth Amendment—seized all Abel’s property and detained him for 47 days in Texas, with only an INS warrant.
Discredit the testimony of Reino Hayhanen—Abdel’s Soviet deputy—who the government used to tie Abel to Alger Hiss and the Rosenbergs. Clumsy, drunk, bigamist, abused wife, stole bread.
Donovan active with media—hosted them at his home. Despite criticism, sought advice from lawyer friends. Avoided contact with Soviets. Abel was well-read and active in his own defense—most angered when blocked from mailing family. On jury, sought intelligent people and blacks (pro-civil rights), not Jews or Catholics (anti-communist). Preparation was key, but prosecution rushed case and judge overruled the defense’s constant objections. After deliberations, jury found guilty but judge sentenced to 30 years (spared life). Appealed to the Supreme Court, which ruled 5-4 against Abel.
Donovan had made pitch directly to D/CIA Dulles to trade Abel for a US detainee. After Powers was shot down and convicted in a show trial with 1,000 people in a theater, USG asked Donovan to handle negotiations. Donovan had been openly communicating with KGB (under pseudonym of Helen—Abel’s wife). Also sought two US students—Frederic Pryor and Marvin Makinen. On secret mission, stayed in West Berlin but negotiated in East Berlin, being bounced between Soviet and East German representatives. Used “sweet then bitter” negotiation approach; police stopped Donovan’s car to rattle him prior to a meeting. Swap made successfully on Glienicke Bridge February 10, 1961.
Logan, Scott, and Thomas Circles were all on L’Enfant’s original city plan, but were not developed for nearly 70 years. During the Civil War, Logan Circle (then called Iowa Circle) was used as camp and hangman’s gallows for Northern deserters. A remarkable number of churches were built in the late 1800s. It decayed from 1940s-60s, culminating in spring 1968 urban riots, but recovered in the 1990s.
Logan Circle: John Logan, general/senator, lived at 4 Logan Circle, statue dedicated 1901 (controversial). Vermont Ave Baptist Church early site for civil rights meetings. Ulysses Grant Jr. resided at 1 Logan Circle, was in decay for years due to divorce proceedings. Designated local historic district in 1971, protecting it from commercialization.
Thomas Circle: Statue for MGen George Thomas unveiled 1879 with electric lights. Key landmarks: Luther Place Memorial Church, Christian National City Church, International Inn. Underpass added in 1940s, truck got stuck.
Scott Circle: Gen Winfield Scott statue unveiled 1874. 1234 16th St house built by Alexander Graham Bell later used by Benjamin Harrison’s VP. Memorials for Daniel Webster and Samuel Hahnemann. 1500 Rhode Island was once Russian embassy. 16th St underpass completed 1941.
Leadership
Leaders must not only envision a new way forward, but implement it by winning the support of those in the trenches. People at every level must know their work is considered important by higher-ups—don’t ask personal favors. Constantly evaluate those around you and create opportunities for them.
Leadership includes the ability to “stand in the shadow while others receive attention and accolades.” Recognize excellence and achievement with awards. Criticize in private and focus on a specific problem. When replacing people, find new positions and/or let them resign.
The most critical thing a new leader can do is listen, and establish clear goals early. In meetings, speak last so you know where others stand and can express your view more effectively.
Create a culture where people are comfortable being candid. Avoid organizational changes (moving boxes) unless absolutely necessary.
Whenever possible, popular changes should be made before tougher ones. Immediate crises must take precedence over, while not totally eclipsing, long-term goals.
A boss’ time is his most precious commodity—must be visible and periodically involved in reform to overcome the bureaucracy. While trusting and empowering delegates is critical, the manager must hold them accountable.
“Micro-knowledge” is critical to make clear leader knows what he’s talking about and ensure quality work. Micromanagement is not.
Task forces are critical to bring together diverse people outside their bureaucratic environment. They can also buy time to let emotions subside—though they should have short deadlines (under 3 months).
Leaders must be decisive. Analysis is not an excuse for paralysis.
Exhausted people make bad decisions. Gates took at least three weeks of vacation every year, and never once worked in the Pentagon on a Saturday.
Don’t waste time seeking consensus—present several (real) options to the decision-maker.
Key personal qualities: modest, disciplined, courageous, flexible/pragmatic (compromise), have integrity (moral authority), and take the work seriously but not yourself (use humor).
Know your stakeholders and always be respectful (e.g. legislatures, oversight boards, media, local community, alumni/retirees, unions, professional societies).
Why public bureaucracies fail:
Political interests conflict with needed reform
Elected individuals are of uneven quality
Career employees have absolute job security (while political appointees do not—average 21 months)
Budgets are irregular (though cuts are opportunities for reform)
Suffer from media and leaks
Bureaucratic culture is insular and risk averse
Anecdotes:
When bragged about briefing Carter, wife would say, “That’s great honey, now take out the trash.”
Wrote a long paper outlining changes to improve CIA analysis which caused him to be promoted over more senior members for deputy director analysis in 1982.
As D/CIA, pushed for greater transparency, but task force classified its openness report as “secret.” Pentagon disciplined on military plans, but leaked all budgetary, administrative, or policy matters.
J Edgar Hoover wrote “Watch the Borders” on a memo (meaning margins); FBI sent extra agents to Texas.
Governor Perry called to pressure Gates to withdraw his candidacy for A&M, but he wasn’t intimidated; he was “confronting KGB leadership in person while Perry was a freshman state congressman.”
One August, voided 3,000 parking tickets given to freshmen on move-in day.
Using the life-cycle theory of normative change, reveals how despite centuries of compliance with norm of humane treatment of detainees, top administration lawyers and policymakers used their access and influence to contest the post-Vietnam normative consensus. Interrogators deserve punishment, but had no role in breaking the norm. Torture proved ineffective and seriously damaging to US alliances and reputation. Torture continues to have majority (53%) public support–meaning US policy should recognize historical precedents, ensure accountability, and emphasize POW operations.
Self-reflection has become the holy grail of leadership development, but the best way to think like a leader is to first act like a leader; introspection should follow action and experimentation (“Outsight principle”). Self-reflection helps later, when you have experiences to draw from.
Today more than ever, major transitions do not come neatly labeled with a new job title or formal move.
Networks: Lateral and vertical relationships with other functional managers are critical lifelines for furing how our contributions fit into the overall picture. A strategic (not just operational/personal) network helps you understand the business, sense trends, avoid groupthink, and identify career opportunities. Build your network by showing up and speaking up.
Learning: We like to do what we already do well, and tend to focus on achievement less than learning. Over time, it gets more costly to invest in learning. Executives spend 60% of their time in meetings.
Leadership: Management entails doing today’s work more efficiently, but leadership is aimed at creating change in what we do. At a minimum, managers set clear goals, assign tasks, manage internal norms, and give recognition. The best leaders are a bridge between the team and the outside environment. Always communicate why. We follow people who inspire us, not people who are merely competent.
Adopted the name “Vulcans” for fun, after the Roman God and symbol of Birmingham, AL. Nearly turned down ANSA job because father was ill, but Bush insisted. Emulated Brent Scowcroft NSC as an honest broker, not a separate power center; about 100 staffers. Symbolic of asymmetric resources, DoD COCOMs have staffs and travel assets, while DoS A/S must take commercial flights (military bands bigger than Foreign Service). Tensions with Rumsfeld and Cheney were not personal animosity but professional conflict. Rumsfeld had black-and-white view, secretive and territorial. Bush had difficulty gauging Powell’s dissatisfaction. Easier to drive agenda when abroad—press corps reports on every meeting; but Powell avoided travel because didn’t trust WH/Pentagon. Republicans tend to have more ambassador career appointees. As SoS, sought to flatten organization, reform budgeting, and shift diplomats from political reporting to action.
Second inaugural linked U.S. interests and values in “American realism.” Over 50% embassy staffs are foreign citizens.
September 11: Result of systemic weaknesses (e.g. the “wall”), not lack of effort; AQ strategy was completed 9/4/2001. On 9/11, had to evacuate people from Presidential Emergency Operations Center because of low oxygen. Rice insisted on testifying before Commission. From 2006-8, 98% of AQ victims were Muslim.
Afghanistan: Unprecedented integration of intelligence and military. Because so rural, quickly ran out of targets. Bush accepted principals/legal recommendations on Guantanamo, torture, and surveillance—Rice continues to believe all legal, but by 2006 wanted stronger framework. Struggled with Karzai—couldn’t tell if he “believed what he was saying.” By 2007, FATA was haven for militants.
Iraq: Patchwork of measures to enforce the 1991 armistice frayed badly, adopted “coercive diplomacy.” Urged by need UN resolution promising “serious consequences,” felt ran out of options (sanctions, diplomacy). Powell’s second UN resolution failed; coalition of 33 willing. “Not sorry we overthrew Saddam”; destabilized region, shot at patrol aircraft, supported terrorists, and was believed to have WMDs in post-9/11 environment (war motive wasn’t spreading democracy). Iraqi Stabilization Group. Extensive planning (including postwar) went to Pentagon, but civil service workers disappeared overnight. Jerry Bremer pushed out Zalmay Khalilzad, surprised WH with many CPA decisions. Rumsfeld offered to resign over Abu Ghraib. Provincial Reconstruction Teams. “Clear, hold, build” was articulation of Gen. McMaster’s strategy in Tal Afar. Too many civilians for security—forced to contract to Blackwater. Maliki elected, inspired democratic era, but quickly lashed out at Sunnis. Iraq Study Group. By 2006, on “precipice of disaster,” Bush played “last card” to surge (Rice opposed until Gates appointment). Signed SOFA to regularize presence in Iraq in anticipation of troop withdrawals.
Iran: Phrase “axis of evil” was inserted by a speechwriter. P5+1 negotiations. NIE found abandonment of nuclear program, but Rice fixated on judgement that civilian program may have continued. Pulling ambassador is costly—lose diplomatic ground presence; tried to open interest section in Tehran (like Cuba).
Israel-Palestine: President blamed Camp David failure on Arafat. 2002 Second Intifada. Roadmap for Peace embraced two-state solution. Arafat died. Hamas won elections. Sharon died. 2006 Lebanon War (Israel didn’t have firm grasp of strategic objectives, sought to punish Hezbollah but hit mostly Lebanese, Cheney wanted to let continue/Bolton was sharing information with Israeli ambassador). Annapolis Conference ended in joint statement—Israel wanted to perpetuate status quo. Bush insisted on traveling Bethlehem to West Bank by car to see the ugliness of the occupation.
Pakistan: Achieved power-sharing agreement between Musharraf and Bhutto to block Sharif—associated with militants. But following Supreme Court investigation into election results, Musharraf suspended the constitution and fired several judges, cementing his downfall. Bhutto assassinated, power went to widower Asif Ali Zardari.
Russia: Putin believed Russia would come to democracy through his strong hand and the gradual development of “factions” within his party which could represent varying points of view. His bargain with his constituents was to provide order, prosperity, and dignity in exchange for controlling politics. Continued NATO expansion. Moscow overreached in Georgian invasion by trying to overthrow Mikheil Saakashvili.
Other: During the China crisis, took days to establish communication with the Chinese leadership (CCP may have been buying time to gather itself). Japanese were “hypersensitive and insecure.” Relationship with Australia was so smooth there was “little real work to do.” No greater disappointment than failure to pass immigration reform. Hot/Cold on Turkey, blocked basing in 2003, Rice supported EU membership, rift over Armenian genocide resolution. Bush initiated TPP, viewed organized labor and environmental groups as enemies of free trade. Qaddafi made a videotape for Condi featuring a song by a Libyan composer called “Black Flower in the White House.” North Korean helped Syria build a nuclear reactor, Israel destroyed it after Bush refused to carry out the operation ourselves. Six Party Talks broke down when North Korea would not write down agreements made orally.
-Anyone interested in politics should work on the ground floor of a campaign at least once. History tends to impose a kind of sequential order on events, but a participant does not have the luxury of paying attention to them sequentially. Important that foreign ministers are empowered so they don’t have to phone home for approvals. With the daily crush of events, hard to step back and think—would take weekend to write a paper to clarify own thinking.
America developed a gun culture not because it was intrinsic to American identity or exceptional to American culture, but because it was not treated as exceptional from a business perspective. The American gun business started as a craft, was nurtured as a fledgling industry supported by the USG, then moved decisively into a commercially-focused phase characterized by heavy investments in machine production by private capital, legal battles, and fierce competition.
In the 1790s, the United States didn’t have enough guns. After the businessmen Samuel Colt and Oliver Winchester founded private armories that mass-produced repeater rifles, supply created the need for demand (production required consumption). These manufacturers turned what was a practical tool into something to be loved. When Colt couldn’t sell the Ordnance Department, he went straight to the troops. Winchester beat Smith and Wesson by buying their patents.
In the mid-1800s, when industrialists could not find sufficient domestic markets, they relied on international markets for survival. The revolutionary Henry rifle which allowed stealth sniper shots was criticized for advancing individualism over collective courage. After the Civil War, sales shifted from the military to civilians. Regulations began to appear in the 1920s, but manufacturers argued they needed peacetime markets to be ready for wartime.
Significant firearms regulation did not arrive until the 1960s. The gun’s political template depends on its emotional value and the image of the citizen gun owner. Today, the NRA seeks publicity, but the gun industry loathes it. Thus, it would be valuable to shift attention from gun owner to gun maker, from gun regulation to corporate accountability. It is easier to fight a business than a myth. Treat gun violence like a community epidemic. Regulations can focus on volume of sales–not just background checks.
American entry into WWII was less a result of FDR’s brilliance than two critical mistakes (Hirohito’s strike on Pearl Harbor, Hitler’s declaration of war on the US).
Eisenhower was heavily criticized for not trying to beat the Soviets to Berlin, but he likely saved thousands of casualties for what would have been a negotiated outcome anyway.
The use of the atomic bomb not only saved millions of lives, but it gave the Japanese army a way to surrender without shame and satisfied the American people’s rage for revenge. For this reason, US-Japanese relations recovered immediately while it took longer to forgive Germans.
Among the most brilliant and decorated US Generals, MacArthur performed heroically in the Pacific, ruling postwar Japan, and the Incheon landing. But his stubbornness led to feuds with George Marshall and Harry Truman.
Patton was brave and militarily effective but failed to understand importance of planning, logistics, and politics. Eisenhower nearly fired Patton for abusing his own soldiers.
US atrocities: Wounded Knee, Capt Spears (WWII), My Lai
Soviet invasion, Mujahideen/convert action, Soviet withdrawal. Creation of Taliban (Mullah Omar), Hezb-i-Islami (Hekmatyar), Haqqani network, and al-Qaida (bin Laden). 9/11 attacks, CIA/SOF overthrow Taliban. Tora Bora and AQ escape to Pakistan. Early governing successes (Bonn conference, Karzai election) faded quickly. Rumsfeld championed light footprint, top-down approach to governance. Iraq diverted valuable resources/personnel (Zalmay Khalilzad, CIA experts). Afghanistan ideal for insurgency (landlocked, mountains, primitive economy), exploded in 2006. Fighting in Kandahar was more conventional than counterinsurgency. Opened up into three fronts: southern (Taliban), central (Haqqani), northern (AQ, Hezb-i-Islami). Unlike Taliban or AQ, Hezb held influence in government. Groups were motivated by religion/Sharia law, but local Afghans motivated by lack of governance. Lead nation approach: US led army, Germany/DynCorp led police, Italians led justice, UK led counternarcotics. NATO took over in 2004, but lacked resources. France Germany Spain balked at participation in COIN operations (“national caveats”). India supported Karzai’s government and built several consulates. ISI opposition to India and local support for militants meant Pakistan could not muster political will to maintain necessary operational tempo for COIN operations in FATA. US promises to leave worsened Pakistani cooperation. Nadir was 2008 ISI-planned bombing of Indian consulate; Bush responded by approving ground operations in Pakistan. Iran supplied (Sunni) insurgencies in both Iraq and Afghanistan. *To succeed, the US must confront corruption, partner with local entities, and eliminate the AQ sanctuary in Pakistan.
Robotics: “Robotics Big Five” are Japan, China, the United States, South Korea, and Germany, which comprise 70 percent of all robot sales.
Advanced Life Sciences: The “last trillion-dollar industry was built on a code of 1s and 0s; the next will be built on our own genetic code.”
Financial Technology: The application of information technology for finance is having an outsized influence in the developing world where applications are allowing for more secure transfers of money associated with sales, remittances, and banking services. Like the search engines of the late 1990s, most cryptocurrencies will likely disappear but those that survive are likely to change the way the world views and uses currency.
Cybersecurity: Three basic types of cyber-attack – attacks on a networks confidentiality, availability, or integrity. The cyber-industry of the future is likely to be led by a company or group of companies that grow from a start-ups rather than the current defense industry leaders.
Big Data: Generation and increasingly effective use of data is one of the key drivers of current and future industries. Some risks (e.g., reduced privacy, past trends reinforce discrimination).
“Kelly” Johnson started Skunk Works during WWII as a cohesive group of around fifty veteran engineers and designers and a hundred or so expert machinists and shop workers. Name from L’il Abner comic strip and plastic factory stink. Rich was going to leave for Northrop when Johnson promoted and named successor. Products: P-80 (first jet fighter), F-104 (first supersonic jet fighter), U-2 spy plane, SR-71 Blackbird, and F-117A stealth fighter.
U-2: Without overfly ability, pilots made provocative sorties into Russian territory to gather radar and electronic communications frequencies—lost hundreds of pilots. U-2 built ruthlessly light to achieve 70,000 feet, but long wings fragile. Soviets could detect, but not reach. On last flight, Gary Powers took duplicate route and Russians plastered sky with AA shells (shot down their own fighter as well). Powers returned as traitor but became test pilot for Skunk Works.
SR-71: Kelly won $97M for A-12 spy plane. Used titanium and painted black. Restricted testing because sonic booms shattered windows for miles. Flew Mach 3 (LA to DC in 64 minutes, out sped earth’s rotation), but McNamara cancelled in favor of satellites/B-2 bomber. Original designation was RS-71 but LBJ misspoke and so they changed the name.
F-117A: 36yo mathematician Denys Overholser found formula to calculate radar signature in Russian technical paper. 65% of radar cross-section comes from shape; 35% from coatings—one loose screw increases signature from ball bearing to barn. Skunk Works beat Northrop in DARPA contact for stealth fighter (Have Blue); took components from F-111, F-16, and F-18 to build cheap. Most didn’t realize the full power until Gulf War—three sorties knocked Iraq out of the war in 20 minutes. Found bat corpses around planes in hangars (used sonar).
Other: Experimented with liquid hydrogen fuels (traveled country under alias), but nearly blew up Burbank (Fire Dpt not cleared to enter). Tried to build a drone to launch from SR-71/B-52 but cancelled after four crashed. Proposed a stealth ship, but Lockheed politics forced him to outsource outside of SkunkWorks and couldn’t get along with Navy customer. Part of problem was own invisibility; ship was black hole on radar amidst waves. Northrop was closest competitor on stealth. Built a smaller, cheaper (but similar design) in B-2 competition.
Lessons:
Need difficult but specific objectives and the freedom to take risks
New technology should not be put on a shelf
Defense industry gets bad rap—GM spent $3.6 to design a failed car (more than stealth fighter)
Prototypes are crucial—doesn’t have to perfect the first time
Government regulations clog the system—GE sells engines to commercial sector for 20% cheaper. Classified programs cost at least 25% more. Multi-year funding would help.
The Year of the Spy Tolkachev, Angleton (Nosenko, Golitsyn), Ogorodnik, Gordievsky, Yurckeno, Howard, Polyshchuk, Smetanin, Pelton, Hanssen, Ames, Artamonor, Varennik, Vorontsov, MONOLITE, Gavrilov Channel, Donilov, Polyakov, Lonetree, Zhomov The Cold War Turns Hot in Afghanistan Peshawar Seven, Stinger Training, India-Pakistan, Beyond Stingers, Mule Trade, Chagasary Mortar Attack, Ojhri Explosion, Downed Su-25, Zia Plane Crash, Soviet Withdrawal Endgame Bloch, Ames, Velvet Revolution, Europe/Central Asia Transitions, Zhomov, Pitching East Germans, ROSETTA/STONE, SPANIEL/MACRAME, Papushin, Hanssen, Coup Against Gorbachev, KGB.
Andrew Jackson lost his father, mother, and two brothers as a 14yo POW in the revolutionary war. Role model was William Wallace (Braveheart). Married Rachel before she divorced her first husband, but dueled any adversary who mentioned it (had bullet lodged in chest for decades). Won the Creek War and brilliantly defended New Orleans in the War of 1812 after the peace treaty had been signed.
Jackson tied JQAdams in 1824; Henry Clay anointed Adams and was named Secretary of State. Jackson won decisively in 1828, but Rachel died days later. Adams did not attend inauguration, which resulted in mobs climbing through windows of the White House for spiked punch. Clay, Calhoun, and Van Buren all wanted the presidency. Margaret Eaton (wife of War Secretary) was salacious and became divisive target for Jackson’s political enemies.
Indians: Always seen as a nuisance, but Jackson perceived them as a threat (agents of Britain). He ignored Supreme Court decisions in favor of the Cherokees and instigated Trail of Tears (4,000 of 16,000 died).
Tariffs/Slavery: Serious fears of civil war with South Carolina declaring “nullification” of federal tariff; Clay negotiated compromised rate. Jackson spoke romantically of preserving the union but fiercely defended slavery. The U.S. nearly went to war with France when it didn’t honor its debt; but France ultimately backed down.
National Bank: Jackson believed he represented the will of the people against a congressional-financial-bureaucratic complex. Nicholas Biddle used monetary policy against Jackson, but Jackson ultimately had its funds withdrawn. Jackson was censured by the Senate, but had it expunged as he left office.
Executive Power: Originally an anti-government Jeffersonian, Jackson expanded executive power in office. Not of consistent principles, he was subject to his own passions and predilections, but also an astute politician. He tried to appear reasonable before lashing out. Created and ran the democratic party and mastered use of media/vetoes.
“Go to the Balcony” to overcome your negative reaction
“Step to their side” to overcome their negative emotion
Accept whatever they say and reframe as an attempt to deal with the problem
Build a Golden Bridge from their position to a mutually satisfactory solution
If they make a power play, use power to educate
The better your Best Alternative to Negotiated Agreement (BATNA), the more leverage you have.
“Principled” negotiation is is a third alternative to “soft” and “hard” negotiation.
Disentangle people from the problem.
Focus on interests, not positions.
Invent multiple options looking for mutual gains before deciding what to do.
Insist the result be based on some objective standard.
Six keys to negotiation (every situation is different):
Focus on goals, not who is right or wrong
Find the decision maker(s) and understand what is in their head
Be transparent and constructive; communicate, state the obvious, frame the vision
Be dispassionate but make emotional outreach (compliment, find common enemies/friends)
Incremental is best—trade things you value unequally
Hard bargainers: find their standards and hold them to them
Negotiations: 8% substance, 37% process, 55% people.
When referenced to policy, ask “Who can fix this?” or “Have you ever made an exception?”
Trust but verify. If you ever feel uncomfortable ask, “Is there anything else I should know?”
While Teddy Roosevelt sought to advance national interests to shift balance of power, Wilson believed the US must spread its values to ensure its own security. Wilson won out in the 20th Century, but if this system is not possible, the US will have to learn to operate in a balance of power system.
Realpolitik—foreign policy calculations of power and the national interest—only avoids arms races and war if the major players are free to adjust their relations in accordance with changing circumstances or are restrained by a system of shared values.
Appeasement: For two decades to WWII, balance of power had been alternately rejected and ridiculed with leaders telling their people the world order would be based on higher morality. But when the challenge came, the democracies conciliated. UK should have confronted Hitler and conciliated Mussolini—they did just the opposite. The Munich Conference was applauded at the time.
Hitler, Stalin, Churchill: It is ironic that the 20th Century—the age of popular will and impersonal forces—was forged by so few individuals. Despite vastly differing ideologies, geopolitics brought Stalin and Hitler together. Hitler thrived on the succor and adoration of the masses; Stalin was far to paranoid to rely on so personal an approach achieved victory by destroying all potential rivals. In the conduct of international relations, Stalin was the supreme realist—patient, shrewd, and implacable. Hitler was not a realist, believing willpower could overwhelm all obstacles. Churchill was rejected by his countrymen except for the brief time when their very survival was at stake.
Negotiations: Showing eagerness rarely speeds negotiations. Negotiations between lower level leaders are rarely productive—they have less authority and flexibility. Soviet negotiators always seemed much more aware of their domestic constraints than those in the international arena (esp. under Stalin). Hitler was not one for negotiations, preferring to overwhelm his interlocutors with extended monologues while exhibiting no sign of listening to responses.
FDR: America’s growing strength meant it was bound to enter WWII, but that it happened so quickly and decisively was the crowning achievement of FDR over the heavily isolationist congress. FDR’s greatest skill was keeping open as many options as possible so that he could present his ultimate course as his own choice rather than being imposed by events. He was also prescient on decolonization, but decisions to postpone discussions of post-war order until after victory made the Cold War inevitable.
Post WWII Order: After WWII:
· Churchill wanted to reconstruct the traditional balance of power in Europe.
· FDR wanted “Four Policemen” (USA, UK, Russia, China) to enforce peace.
· Stalin strove to extend Russian influence into Central Europe.
Stalin disregarded declarations of principle in favor of trading reciprocal concessions, hopefully in the form of territory. He had great difficulty comprehending the importance of morality and legalism to Americans. Stalin knew of America’s atomic bomb well before Truman did. In the end, the US opted for Western unity over East-West negotiations. Churchill inaugurated the Cold War with his iron curtain speech in Missouri in 1946. The Cold War was the first time in history military and economic strength became asymmetrical.
Containment: According to Kennan, the friction between the USSR and US was not the product of a misunderstanding but inherent in the USSR’s perception of the outside world. The Truman doctrine tried to address the challenge of intervention. NATO was the first peacetime alliance in US history (1949). Criticisms of containment:
· Realists: psychological and geopolitical overextension while draining American resources.
· Rejected the postponement of negotiation until after positions of strength had been achieved.
· Denied US had the moral right to undertake containment in the first place.
Korean War: Arose from a misunderstanding: Koreans did not think America would resist the peninsula when it had conceded most of Asia to communists, but the US analyzed the symbolism of permitting communist aggression.
US leaders traditionally view diplomacy and strategy as separate activities (e.g. achieve a military outcome and send in the diplomats), but in a limited war this is dangerous. The US should have stopped 100 miles short of the Chinese border, but was instead drawn into a war of attrition. The biggest loser of the war turned out to be the USSR, as NATO tripled military spending. The US should have learned that protracted inconclusive wars shatter America’s domestic consensus.
Stalin’s successors wanted to reduce tensions with the West, but lacked his authority, perseverance, and the political unity required. A short window of negotiations failed because the Atlantic alliance was far too fragile and scattered.
Suez Crisis: In 1955, Khrushchev made a weapons sale to Egypt; Nasser played great powers off each other. US wanted to avoid association with the ME colonial legacy. The Suez Crisis revealed asymmetric interests and destroyed the Great Power status of UK and France.
Poland, Hungary: Communism was indigenous to the USSR. But even with control of the police, media, and education system, communists were minorities in the Eastern European states. The bloody suppression of the Hungarian uprising showed the USSR would maintain its sphere of interest by force.
Berlin Crisis: East Berlin was losing hundreds of thousands of citizens to West Germany, so Khrushchev issued a series of ultimatums and built a wall. France wanted intransigence, UK wanted negotiations, US legalism. Kennedy—of a new generation than Eisenhower—preferred to bypass allies to work directly with USSR.
· The US has a misbelief that conflicts among nations are caused by misunderstanding rather than clashing interests, and no one could ever come, see, and leave America and still be hostile to its ways.
· The UK practices a form of ethical egoism—what’s good for Great Britain is considered good for the rest of the world.
Nuclear Policy: The nuclear age turned strategy into deterrence and deterrence into an esoteric intellectual exercise. Kennedy’s flexible response gave Washington greater freedom of political choice but raised doubts among NATO allies.
Vietnam: The US’ commitment to Indochina in 1950 established the pattern: large enough to become entangled, but not to prove decisive. In guerrilla war, 100% security in 75% of the country is better than vice versa. By 1960, 1500 South Vietnamese officials were being assassinated each year; containment was turning into nation-building. For the Vietnamese, revolutionary war was all they had ever known. By overthrowing Diem, the US threw away its legitimacy. LBJ’s eagerness to start negotiations was palpable to the point of being self-defeating. US leaders framed the conflict not in terms of national interest, which would permit a rational debate of costs and benefits, but idealistically about bringing democracy to SE Asia—a goal with no clear end point. Critics likewise shifted their criticism to moral grounds. Nixon was subtle in diplomacy, but a street fighter in domestic politics. Options:
· Unilateral withdrawal: Not politically or logistically feasible.
· Showdown with Hanoi through military and political pressure: Kissinger preferred.
· Vietnamization: Nixon preferred as safest balance. Cambodia bombing necessary to protect US troops.
Nixon: Doctrine was to keep treaty commitments and provide a nuclear shield for allies threatened by nuclear power. Nixon proclaimed the national interest through his presidential foreign policy report. Used linkages to reinforce policies. Saw shared dislike of USSR with China, signed Shanghai Communique in 1972. This triangular relationship allowed end of Vietnam War, agreement on Berlin, and a reduction of Soviet influence in the ME. Nixon’s capacity to lead collapsed after Watergate. Debated arms control and human rights.
Reagan: No world power has ever fallen as quickly as the USSR without losing a war. Reagan abstained from the details of foreign policy, but had an uncanny talent for uniting the American people and used SDI/human rights effectively. Reagan doctrine was to help anticommunist insurgencies wrest their countries out of Soviet control (Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Angola). Gorbachev hoped liberalization would maintain great power status, but perestroika (economic) and glasnost (political) turned on themselves. Yeltsin took power by abolishing the USSR and thus Gorbachev’s position in it.
New World Order: For the first time, the US can neither withdraw from nor dominate the emerging world order. None of the most important emerging countries (India, Brazil, China) have experience with the multistate system. Asia lacks the multilateral institutions of Europe. When the Japanese PM assents, he is not so much agreeing as saying he understands your position. China views the West as agents of centuries of humiliation dating back to the opium wars.
General:
In diplomacy, the more options one side has, the fewer are available to the other side. Posterity always blames individuals rather than circumstances.
Ideas do not sell themselves in Washington. Authors who do not fight for them will find their words turn into ex post facto alibis rather than guides to action.
Law of Revolutions: The more extensive the eradication of existing authority, the more its successors must rely on naked power to establish themselves.
Democracy is not exportable: In the West, political pluralism thrived among cohesive societies with strong consensus to permit opposition, but this is not the case when a nation has yet to be created.
Vice Presidential trips are generally designed to supply credibility for decisions that have already been made.
Poor family in Freehold, NJ. Mother was loving and caring. Dad was a depressed alcoholic who was occasionally abusive. Wanted to become a rock star when he first saw Elvis (and later the Beatles). Played with several bands (The Castiles, Steel Mill, Bruce Springsteen Band) and countless musicians. Spent time in Richmond. No drugs or booze (though lots of women).
Wrote deeply personal stuff (Growin’ Up) and producer said no hits, “busted out a rhyming dictionary” and wrote Blinded by the Light, which became the hit off the album. Greetings from Asbury Park was first album (1973). The Innocent, the Wild and the E Street Shuffle was high energy. Born to Run (only eight songs but years of work) finally catapulted him to stardom with magazine covers and his first international tour. The River is about his sister who got pregnant and married at 17. Now frequently plays Born in the USA on acoustic so it is better understood…supposed to juxtapose criticism and pride; whole album came out too light/pop for him. American Skin (41 shots) was about the police shooting of an unarmed African in NYC. The Rising was written as a reaction to 9/11, Magic was a reaction to Bush/Iraq, Wrecking Ball was a reaction to the 2008 economic crash.
Bruce listens to country (“because it dealt with adult topics”). Recorded Pete Seager album. Began seeing doctors for depression in 1980s. Still suffers from debilitating bouts of depression and has been on antidepressants for 15 years.
Surrounded himself with great instrumentalists–big band sound. Lucky they deferred full autonomy to Bruce. Lacked a tone in singing but had soul and distinguished himself with songwriting and a gift for live performances. Try lots of different sounds (hard rock phase before soul/blues).
“The strangest thing you can do onstage is think about what you’re doing.”
“People don’t come to rocks shows too learn something. They come to be reminded of something they already know.”
“My records are always the sound of someone trying to understand where to place his mind and heart.”
Stories: road tripping to CA, fighting cops on stage, searching the car for pennies at the Lincoln tunnel toll, getting kicked out of Disneyworld for bandana.
Taft
Taft was blessed from birth with robust health but allowed his physical strength and energy to gradually dissipate into obesity. Heft was driven into disciplined study by a need to maintain his father’s standard of excellence. His affable disposition made him the most popular student at Yale. Both Taft and Roosevelt’s first wives turned down their first proposals for marriage.
Taft was reluctant to stir controversy and was initially too thin-skinned for public life, but showed a quiet courage in his cases. Taft and Roosevelt struck up a friendship in DC and would often walk together to work. Taft was loved on the federal bench and success as Solicitor General (won 15 of 17 cases) led to appointment as Attorney General. He reluctantly accepted a challenging position as Governor-General of the Philippines, where he took on the military leadership to promote fair governance.
Taft did not seek the presidency, but rather chief justice. Nonetheless, Roosevelt named Taft his successor while he did a tour of Africa and Europe. Roosevelt, however was distraught by his perceived abandonment of the Progressive platform. Nellie Taft was one of the most respected and powerful first ladies in history until she suffered a devastating stroke just weeks after inauguration. Taft’s beloved military aid Archie Butt died on the Titanic.
Taft barely campaigned in 1912, believing it best for a sitting president to let his record speak for itself. He did not expect to win the general election.
Roosevelt
“Teedie” was a sickly asthmatic boy whose fierce determination to escape an invalid’s fate led him to transform his body and demeanor through strenuous work. In a year abroad, Theodore obtained firsthand knowledge of the cultures of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Years of home schooling made him socially awkward when he entered Harvard, but heavily interested in the outdoors.
In his first year of law school, Roosevelt served on the board of charitable organizations and wrote a book on naval history. His election to the New York State Assembly launched a meteoric political rise in which he made a name for himself by taking on corruption. He lost his first wife and his mother within a week but coped with frantic activity.
Roosevelt astounded critics by accepting a mocking invitation to a massive parade protesting his policy. He was hoping for war and reacted strongly to the sinking of the Maine. The press found the story of the Rough-Riders irresistible from the start, and Roosevelt was immortalized.
Roosevelt’s two years as NYC police commissioner broadened his outlook on social and economic issues. An unpopular governor, the Republican establishment sought to bury him as VP, until McKinley’s assassination made him the youngest ever president. On a walk with the French Ambassador, Roosevelt insisted on disrobing to cross a stream, but the ambassador refused to remove his gloves so as to not be embarrassed if he met ladies.
Unlike Taft, Roosevelt did not always believe courts were the best judges of what should be done to better social and industrial conditions. Under Roosevelt’s Square Deal (and spurred by the “muckrakers”), the country awakened to the need for government action to allay problems caused by industrialization. The traditional Republican party viewed the Progressives as “insurgents.”
The success of Sam McClure’s literary magazine McClure’s and its major contributions to Progressive-era reforms can be traced to the prodigiously gifted staff of investigative journalists he assembled (Ida Tarbell, Ray Baker, Lincoln Steffens, William White). Roosevelt debated points with journalists as equals, and freely commented on their stories, where they felt free to criticize his public statements.
When Roosevelt announced his intention to seek a third term in 1912, the Republican convention turned violent with disputes over delegates. When Taft was ultimately declared the nominee, Roosevelt secured financial backing to create the Bull Moose Party. When shot prior to a an major speech, Roosevelt stopped his supporters from killing the shooter and gave the entire speech, realizing upon opening his remarks the papers and his metal glasses case had deflected the bullet away from his heart.
Bitter infighting drove many Republicans to support Woodrow Wilson, who ultimately won by a large margin (but much smaller than the combined totals of Taft and Roosevelt). It took many years and the devastating illness of Roosevelt to repair his friendship with Taft.
Financials are the nervous system of a company. The art of finance is making a profit—or making profits look better than they really are. There are all sorts of estimations and room for bias.
Income Statement
Check the time range, scope, and scale. Three main parts:
Sales (or revenue): the value of all products/services provided to customers over a given time. Note: An award is when a contract is signed (indicates future sales).
Costs (or expenses): Two categories:
Cost of Goods/Services Sold (COGS/COS): costs directly involved in making a product/delivering a service.
Operating Expenses: costs not directly related to making a product/delivering a service.
Profit (or income): Three types
Gross Profit: Sales – COGS/COS
Operating Profit (EBIT): Gross Profit – Operating Expenditures
Net Profit: Operating Profit – Taxes, etc.
Balance Sheet
Assets = Liabilities + Owner’s Equity [by definition, this always balances]
Assets: what the company owns. Includes cash (and equivalents), accounts receivable (amount customers own the company), inventory, property plant and equipment (PPE), and goodwill (surplus paid to acquire companies).
Liabilities: what a company owes. Includes current portion of long-term debt, short-term loans, accounts payable (what the company owes its vendors), accrued expenses, and long-term liabilities (e.g. deferred bonuses or taxes).
Equity: net worth. Sometimes bucketed in categories including preferred shares (paid out first), common shares, addition paid-in capital, and retained earnings (profits re-invested in the business).
Cash Flow Statement
Warren Buffett looks at cash because it’s the number least affected by the art of finance.
Due to the timing of reporting, profit is not equal to cash (but you need both to survive). For mature companies, profit (from the income statement) will turn into cash.
Cash can come from or be used in:
Operating Activities: related to actual operations of the business.
Investing Activities: spent on capital investments (the purchase of assets).
Financing Activities: borrowing and paying back loans, or transactions with shareholders.
Note: Free Cash Flow (or “Owner Earnings”) is the cash generated by operating the business minus the money invested to keep it running. A hot metric of recent.
Five forces that determine profitability of an industry:
Barriers to Entry
Suppliers Bargaining Power
Buyers Bargaining Power
Substitute Products
Rivalry (strategic mapping)
Changes based on technology, government, social/demographic trends, competitor actions
Four Corners analysis of a competitor:
Infer: Drivers, Management Assumptions
Observable: Strategy, Capabilities
-Six Founding Fathers: Benjamin Franklin, George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, James Madison, Alexander Hamilton.
-Born in St. Kitts and Nevis, Hamilton’s father abandoned him, mother passed away, and cousin committed suicide. He studied vigorously and earned a scholarship to King’s College (now Columbia University). Memories of his West Indies childhood left Hamilton with a settled antipathy for slavery (most FF owned at least a few).
-When war broke out, Hamilton’s military prowess and intellect made him Washington’s aide-de-camp. After years of asking for a command, Hamilton finally achieved military glory with a courageous stand in the battle of Yorktown. Even after the Treaty, the British controlled NYC until November 1783. A mutiny in Philadelphia showed Hamilton the need for a strong central government and standing army.
-Hamilton earned his law degree and opened his firm in NYC down the street from Burr. Robert Morris mentored him in finance and he drafted the Constitution for the Bank of New York. Much of Hamilton’s cynicism with state government resulted from his disenchantment with NY Governor George Clinton, whom he battled vigorously.
-After attending an Annapolis conference on inter-state tariffs, Hamilton became junior delegate to the Constitutional Convention. The proceedings of the convention were entirely closed to the public. Hamilton was initially aloof from battles between the Virginia and New Jersey plans, but interjected with a six-hour speech calling for a strong executive serving a life term (earning him jeers of being an Anglophile).
-The country quickly split between Federalists (pro-constitution) and Antifederalists (anti-constitution). Hamilton conceived of the Federalist papers as a way to convince New Yorkers to ratify. Jay (wrote 5) covered foreign affairs, Madison (29) covered history, Hamilton (51) everything else. Hamilton’s biggest failure of vision was opposing a bill of rights, but he overcame odds to get NY to ratify (spurred by Virginia). Hamilton’s rivalry with John Adams began when Hamilton manipulated electors to ensure Washington won the first election. Hamilton was first betrayed by Burr when Burr became Clinton’s AG after campaigning against him.
-For the first several months, there was no cabinet; then only State (Jefferson) Treasury (Hamilton) and War (Knox). Treasury was especially controversial given British tax abuses. In an ill-defined role, Hamilton wielded virtually unchecked power (Jefferson was still in France). Washington caught anthrax or a tumor in the early years of the government and nearly died. In 1793, an epidemic of yellow fever caused the evacuation of the capital.
-Jefferson was a taciturn widower who eschewed public life in favor of self-improvement. While a master of science, arts, and language, he was no war hero (surrendered Richmond to the British) and full of contradictions (slavery, adultery). His love of France blinded him to the French revolution. Madison was pale and timid, but what he lacked in oratory prowess he made up for in constitutional expertise.
-Hamilton set in place building blocks for a powerful state: public credit, efficient taxes, customs service, and a strong central bank. Hamilton’s decision to assume all state debts in the federal debt united the country and helped justify federal taxes. Critics twisted his words to suggest he liked debt. After months of nasty fighting, Hamilton outsmarted Jefferson and won “assumption” in exchange for allowing the capital to move from NYC to PHI—and ultimately DC.
-Hamilton’s Report on Public Credit caused securities to begin trading at record speeds, but southern farmers quickly became distrustful of northern financiers and Hamilton had a falling out with Madison/Jefferson. The creation of a central bank ultimately created two parties: Federalists and Republicans.
-Hamilton fell into a nearly year-long illicit affair with Maria Reynolds, a moody one-time prostitute who was likely blackmailing him all along. When husband John Reynolds went to debtor’s prison, he leaked affair. Hamilton denied, then quickly revealed everything to Monroe who vowed to keep secret as no public corruption, but likely kept a copy for Jefferson. Soon after Hamilton wrote a piece accusing Jefferson of sleeping with Sally Hemings, his affair leaked to the press (Hamilton blamed—and almost dueled—Monroe). Sacrificing his personal reputation to clear his public honor, he composed a 95-page “Reynolds Pamphlet” detailing his involvement.
-Hamilton sent spies to England to steal blueprints and expertise from their textile mills. He wrote a Report on Manufacturers, but it was too abstract for Congress to legislate. He created Paterson NJ as a “future town” but it ran way over budget. In response to Hamilton’s friend William Duer who speculated himself into debtor’s prison, the Buttonwood Agreement laid the foundations for what would become the New York stock exchange.
-After Louis XIV’s execution, Jefferson quickly voiced solidarity with the revolutionaries (abandoning Lafayette and others who fought in the American revolution). When France declared war on England, Hamilton pushed neutrality (ultimately the Jay Treaty) which avoided war and led to ten years of economic prosperity. Hamilton drafted Washington’s farewell address which called for neutrality in foreign affairs and domestic unity. He supported Pinckney over Adams in 1796, which damaged his relationship with the next president.
-Adams was talented but also overly ambitious and paranoid. Pudgy and curmudgeonly, Adams had similar political beliefs to Hamilton but their personalities clashed and Hamilton was shut out. The XYZ Affair humiliated the Francophile Republicans and nearly put the country at war with France. Hamilton rejoined Washington as Inspector General of the Army (outranking several with more experience). The Federalist Congress passed the horrific Alien and Sedition Acts to target Republicans, but their party ultimately split between Adams and Hamilton. Hamilton wrote a long screed against Adams, dooming both their 1800 candidacies.
-Burr opened the Manhattan Company under the premise of a water company but as a rival bank to the Bank of NY. Perhaps to woo Republicans in an effort to win the presidential nomination, he then challenged Hamilton’s brother-in-law to a duel which was settled after they both missed. Hamilton’s son Philip got in an argument which resulted in him being killed in a duel.
-Hamilton and the Federalists were doomed by their elitist politics (let the educated make the decisions). Jefferson saw the best in people, Hamilton the worst. After a tie in 1800, Hamilton supported Jefferson over Burr, believing misguided principles to be better than none. When Jefferson became president, Hamilton quickly faded from public view, but remained an effective lawyer and helped found the New York Evening Post. Jefferson turned out to be a moderate president, leaving most of Hamilton’s government intact.
-After Burr lost the 1804 gubernatorial race (virtually ending his political career), many of his supporters blamed Hamilton. When a letter recounting Hamilton calling Burr despicable leaked, Burr challenged Hamilton to a duel, not uncommon between politicians but rarely lethal. Negotiations made little progress between the prideful one-time friends. Hamilton, who opposed dueling, vowed repeatedly to “throw away his fire.” 23 days later, in NJ, Hamilton fired at a tree several feet over Burr’s head and Burr hit Hamilton just above the right hip. Hamilton died 36 hours later.
-Reactions varied, but the Federalists showed an outpouring of sympathy. Burr went back to preside over the Senate and never showed any remorse but lived the rest of his life a broke outcast. Eliza lived until 1854 and loyally defended her husband’s legacy.
All companies face risk: financial and public relations are best known, but strategic (competitive) is most difficult. Change (new technologies, regulations, competitors) creates uncertainty which creates risk or opportunity. Instead of relying on big consultancies, companies should develop an internal early warning mechanism for risk identification, intelligence monitoring, and action management. Prioritize risks by impact and likelihood. Analyze risks within each of Michael Porter’s five forces. War gaming is neither a war nor a game. Two structures:
Competitor Response: Don’t say what you would do in a competitor’s shoes, you need Intel on what they will do (they have bureaucratic constraints that might prevent rationality).
Strategy: SWOT analysis causes you to exaggerate your assessment.
Blindspots games solicit input from mid-level managers who are more objective. Sample war game agenda (p103-107). Intelligence expertise does not come from knowledge sharing projects or newsletters, but from establishing a career path for trained, dedicated professionals. Including CI in job description or financial incentives fail, but recognition and information exchange worked. Sources require both access and expertise. Be specific in the questions you ask.
Officer in Polish Army. Captured by Soviet forces, but convinced them to trade him to the Nazis since he was from German Poland. Jumped out window of train and was quickly initiated into the Polish Underground. Executed a series of missions to France and Russia to coordinate efforts of Polish forces. On one trip, was betrayed by a peasant and captured by Gestapo while sleeping. After days of torture, tried to kill himself by slitting his wrists but ended up in the hospital and was transferred back to Poland where the Underground helped him escape. While he recovered, he lived on a farm writing anti-Nazi propaganda and was involved in an operation to execute a Pole who betrayed theUnderground. When his agent was killed, he returned to Warsaw as a liaison who monitored events in neutral countries. Gestapo would post names of prominent Poles that would be murdered if they lost one of their own, but resistance had to continue. Poles used boycotts, blackmail, and false promises to get back at German officers. Conducted three years of office work in Warsaw living in absolute secrecy using “liaison women” to communicate and mentoring younger members. Assigned to deliver critical information from the Underground Parliament in Poland to the government in exile in England. Just prior, snuck into the Warsaw ghetto and Belzec Death Camp where he witnessed unspeakable misery. Nazis put limestone on floors of trains and packed them full of Jews until they melted away. After long trip through France and Spain, flew to England and the US where he gave first hand accounts of the Polish situation to countless officials including FDR.
American businessman who became Deputy Undersecretary for Defense from 2004-11. US made several economic mistakes in Iraq reconstruction: disbanding the army, de-baathification, cutting support to state owned enterprises, removing all tariffs on imported goods, rash decisions on which factories to close.
Iraq: We spent $144B/year to secure a $40B economy. Afghanistan: 60% of GDP was represented by foreign aid. Marshall Plan is usually a misguided analogy, as it was targeted, goals-based, financial aid. Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund (IRRF) just awarded big contracts to US construction companies.
Brinkley created the Task Force for Business and Stability Operations (TFBSO) which hosted Western businesses leaders, helped open factories, and tried to build infrastructure/trade. Thought he would be gone under Obama but Gates actually made him direct report. After years of bureaucratic/legal battles, finally lost all funding in 2011. Hurdles:
Interagency: Brinkley wanted to be embedded in the MNFI force, not stuck in Green Zone meetings.
Cotton lobby blocked funding to develop Iraqi Cotton industry (Bumpers Amendment)
Pentagon lawyers wouldn’t let him spend money on raw materials for Iraqi factories.
Inspector General reports and election fueled skepticism of funding aid programs. Brinkley fell under investigation for allegations from a disgruntled employee. Nearly killed in car bombing of hotel.
Iraqis didn’t have bank accounts; once they received it they were unable to spend their own money. Cash payments enabled corruption. Americans consistently set local expectations higher than they could deliver.
Until the 1980s, the CIA never truly gained an espionage foothold in Moscow. Timeline:
Pyotr Popov (1953-55): GRU Officer, executed by firing squad
Oleg Penkovsky (-1963): GRU Colonel, executed
CIA CI Chief James Angleton Era (“wilderness of mirrors”). Influenced by Double Cross, Kim Philby, and Anatoly Golitsyn who claimed “master plan.” Resulted in mistreatment of Yuri Nosenko.
Younger generation of spies rebelled against Angleton’s rules (used meetings instead of dead drops). “Gerber rules” determined bona fides.
Aleksander Ogorodnik (-1977): Soviet diplomat, used cyanide (L-pill) after being betrayed.
Fire at US Embassy in Moscow and loss of Anatoly Filatov, GRU colonel.
President Carter/Stansfield Turner promised new leaf at CIA, ordered year-long stand-down of Moscow recruiting. Worsened by loss of Alexei Kulak, KGB tech officer.
Victor Belenko: Soviet air pilot who flew his plane to Japan and defected.
Victor Sheymov: Russian computer expert who was successfully exfiltrate and defected to the U.S.
Tolkachev: Descendent of the Trotskyists, disturbed by Stalin’s massive purges in the late 1930s. Wife’s father ran an opposition newspaper. Nazi bombing in WWII showcased the need for radars. Influenced by Sakharov and Solzhenitsyn. Waited several years to spy while his son was young. By the late 1970s, nobody was very optimistic about prospects for the Soviet Union. Wife found out of spying, but he told her he would stop and she dropped it (CIA didn’t know this).
Espionage* *(CKSPHERE/CKVANQUISH): From 1977-78, Tolkachev approached cars with US license plates. Review determined 50% chance bona fides, but after five attempts and Pentagon demand for Soviet radar information, HQ gave approval. Case officer was John Guilsher, who called from pay phone, then met at river. Tolkachev was determined but demanding, wanted money (“six-figures”) as a sign of respect. Also demanded L-pill. Initially brushed off exfiltration, then demanded it. Frequently worried by changing security protocols at laboratory (sign in, document removal, privacy). CIA continually gave him more film and better cameras. Asked for western music, medicine, and books; CIA hesitant to give anything that could make him stand out. During one scare, when an investigation was launched, he drove to the countryside and burned all his equipment.
Gerber: became Moscow station chief in January 1980. Lifelong hobby was the study of wolves. Disliked Discus and other attempts at covert remote communication. Championed the “deep cover,” which was “black” all the time (safer from KGB but disconnected from embassy/station).
In 1981, President Reagan/William Casey were much more aggressive in confronting USSR. Convinced Casey USSR was economic basket case. French ran Vladimir Vetrov (Farewell Dossier).
Tradecraft:
The station spent hours planning meetings (e.g. four-hour surveillance detection runs with elaborate disguises and fake trips). Have meetings scheduled for three years out. But once an operation begins, don’t think about it.
Detecting surveillance: Look for the cars that don’t act natural. Soviets could turn on/off one headlight. Once on foot, much more vulnerable.
Betrayal: Edward Lee Howard was training to go to Moscow to handle Tolkachev when he failed four routine polygraphs and the CIA forced him to resign. They paid counseling bills, but in his rage he made repeated outreach to the Soviet consulate. He provided some details about Tolkachev which narrowed the search to his Phazotron lab. Aldrich Ames simultaneously provided information on other agents. Tolkachev was stopped and arrested on the road; a CIA officer was lured into a trap by a false meeting and expelled PNG.
Importance: Helped ensure U.S. air superiority for more than two decades.
Revealed despite Soviet complaints about the U.S. cruise missile, Moscow’s defense planners had barely begun to respond.
Helped U.S. design radar jammer.
Alerted of first design specifications of the Soviet AWACS system.
Extensive documentation on the MiG-25, the first aircraft with look-down/shoot-down radar.
Several new models of airborne missile system and technical characteristics of other Soviet fighters/bombers
While modern society focuses on words, a message’s impact is 7% verbal (content), 38% vocal (tone, inflection), and 55% non-verbal. People form 90% of their opinion of you in the first 4 minutes. Women are generally more attuned to nonverbal clues. Older people are harder to read than younger ones because they have less muscle tone on their faces.
BLUF: Keep animated face, expressive gestures, head nods/tilts, frequent eye contact, and good posture.
When holding or shaking hands, the dominant partner’s palm faces down. In handshake pictures, the person on the left is perceived as dominant. Hands on hips show a readiness to dominate.
Speakers look to their left more often, but bosses consider the person to their right more powerful. Sitting the front rows enhance engagement and comprehension. Solid frame glasses make you appear sincere and intelligence, while frameless portrays a powerless image.
Standing or sitting, open legs show confidence. When sitting, European (knee on knee) leg cross is normal, but American (ankle on knee) highlights genitals and demonstrates competitive attitude. Locked ankles and clinched fists demonstrate holding back.
A natural smile produces wrinkles around the eyes—not just the mouth. Laughter releases endorphins, helping relieve stress and heal the body.
Avoid crossing arms unless you want to show disapproval. Giving someone a pen or paper can help force them to uncross their arms.
62% of people tell 2-3 white lies every ten minutes. Most obvious signs are covering mouth, touching nose, rubbing eyes, grabbing ear, scratching neck, and pulling collar. A chin stroke indicates the listener is going through the decision-making process.
Stages of Attraction: Eye contact, smiling, preening, talk, touch. People are less attracted to super beautiful than people who a roughly as attractive as they are. Larger pupil are considered more attractive. To build a good rapport, your eyes should meet theirs 60-70% of the time. Women have better peripheral vision. A man should be 1.09 times taller than his partner.
Mirroring positive signals helps facilitate cooperation/agreement and build rapport. Never speak at a faster rate than the other person. Slow, deliberate head nods demonstrate interest. A head tilt demonstrates nonthreatening. Cowboy stance (thumbs in pants) shows a sexually aggressive attitude.
Television breaks down some cultural differences, but culture still matters. In the Mediterranean, the UT Longhorns hand sign means your wife is being unfaithful. The amount of personal space a person desires depends on the population density where they grew up.
Purpose of NSC is to help the president make decisions by bringing together the best ideas from across USG and ensure decisions are implemented by those agencies. No other major institution is so entirely dependent on individual president for its shape, size, role, and details of its operation. The ten years after 9/11 were an “age of fear,” with policy dictated heavily by emotion.
**Bush
First Term: Bush’s NSC was riven with rivalry between DoD and DoS and no cohesive processes, which allowed Cheney and Rumsfeld to dominate. He was also too willing to accept military plans that were underdeveloped or misguided. Too much early success in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Mission Creep: Turned a war against a non-state actor into two invasions. Rumsfeld’s decision to use a smaller invasion force ran counter to Powell’s doctrine of overwhelming force. Operational rifts followed strategic ones.
Second Term: Marked improvement. Bush took stronger leadership. Rumsfeld-Powell rift ended. Hadley a better staffer than Rice. Strategy shifted from “clear, hold” to “clear, hold, build.” The father of the surge was Gen. Jack Keane (he suggested Petraeus).
Financial Crisis: Bush showed political courage (torture had higher approval rating than TARP) and Paulson, Bernanke, and Geithner acted swiftly to stem the tide of the crisis (Europe was sluggish).
Style: Despite intellectual gifts, Bush went out of his way to appear more of a “frat boy” than an intellectual. Brought confidence, energy, and optimism when most needed. Accomplishments in Africa, India, and Colombia.
**Obama
Afghanistan: While Bush would be remembered for Iraq, Afghanistan became “Obama’s War.” Riedel coined “disrupt, dismantle, and defeat AQ” in advocating COIN; Biden wanted CT. Three more AfPak reviews: Lute, McChrystal, post-McChrystal. Obama not clear on objectives against Taliban. Resulted in a speech simultaneously announcing escalation and withdrawal.
Syria: Arab Spring pitted old realists (Gates, Biden, Clinton) against younger staffers swept up in the idealism—result was paralysis. Syria initially considered least likely to fall, Obama hesitant to arm rebels and shocked cabinet by declining to use force after chemical weapon attack (low point). Saved by Kerry quip and Russian support.
Iran: Slow to endorse Green Revolution, but Rouhani call first since 1979. Stuxnet was successful but the code leaked online allowing endless hackers to analyze and repurpose it. Bill Burns and Jake Sullivan held secret talks which ultimately led to nuke deal.
Other: Foreign policy was “don’t do stupid shit,” but falls into the trap of assuming there’s nothing in between “boots on the ground” and doing nothing. Goals were to get out of Iraq, reduce dependence on foreign energy, and rebuild alliances. Two powerful speeches—nuclear-free world in Prague, US-Muslim relations in Cairo. Perception of US decline was not helped by failed Copenhagen climate summit and perceived weakness on Russia. Brought a new perspective on Israel—failed to warn Israeli partners of certain stances (e.g. endorsing 1967 borders). Kerry talks devolved into 2014 war. Described in Libya as “leading from behind.”
Style: The un-Bush (multicultural, articulate, outsider, change). Promised to leave his friends at home and keep lobbyists out of his administration—neither happened. Conflict between the old, experienced hands and young, loyal staffers (on-the-job training). Much less inclined (than Bush) to conduct personal diplomacy. Penchant toward methodical, extensive analysis, and deliberation. Axelrod and Jarrett highly influential; no one could go on TV without McDonough’s permission. Jones was seen as stiff, outsider, disinclined to work weekends. WH felt some of Hillary’s close staff, notably Cheryl Mills, were more devoted to her long-term career interests than the president’s goals. NSC staff grew to 370.
**Themes
Predisposition to let the urgent overtake the important. Just as generals fight the last war, policymakers interpret the next crisis in terms of the last one. Bush NSC shaped by peaceful post-Cold War revolutions in Eastern Europe—assumed Iraq would be the same. “Marshall Plan” almost always false analogy.
Speeches aren’t policy—they must be followed by strategy and implementation. Obama sometimes valued articulation over implementation.
Always try reprioritizing before reorganizing.
Senior economic officials often sit in on foreign policy meetings but foreign policy officials rarely sit in on domestic policy meetings, even if they have major ramifications for international policy.
Technology-government partnerships more crucial than ever (Cold War understanding of fusion wasn’t critical, but cyber is).
Latin America, Africa, and Central Asia do not receive enough attention.
When politicians find an approach that resonates with the public, they beat it until it no longer works. Think tanks focus on the hot issues to garner the most attention. Senate confirmation encourages intellectual caution. “The American people are willing to be lied to so long as it makes them feel good about themselves.”
We typically measure the success of leaders by things they have little control over (economic cycles, decisions of allies). Foreign policy does matter in presidential elections.
Troubled childhood, joined the Air Force and earned psychology degree. Friend encouraged to become FBI Agent, served in Detroit and Milwaukee before Quantico. Lacked case experience so traveled around country interviewing over 100 serial killers. Behavior reflects personality. To understand an artist you must observe his work. All killers display: Manipulation. Domination. Control. Profiles include sex, age, race, marital, military, occupation, IQ, education, criminal record, personality, and color vehicle. Sometimes guesses things like speech impediment. Describes about 50 different cases (Atlanta Child Murderer, Alaska prostitute hunter, Charles Manson, Ted Bundy, Ed Gein, Green River killer). Many are rapes in which suspect panicked and killed victim. Sets traps to extract confession, by going door to door or using interrogation techniques (e.g. leave murder weapon in plain sight).
Keep an eye out for inconsistencies. Difference between MO (method) and signature (purposeful mark). The more time a suspect spends at a scene, the more clues he leaves. Shouldn’t talk about criminal insanity but make decisions based on danger posed to the community. Almost all killers are men; women can be equally damaged but they tend to internalize, rather than lashing out at others.
Difference Engine: Ada Lovelace, son of poet Lord Byron, had an on-and-off relationship with Charles Babbage, who invented the Difference and Analytics Engines by breaking big problems into small steps and mechanizing them. Lovelace was a publicist and partner, but also pioneered four concepts: (1) general-purpose machine (2) operations beyond math (3) programming and (4) rejected ability of computers to “think.”
Computer: Digital (used discrete integers) replaced analog (physical phenomenon). Alan Turing published concept of Logical Computing Machine (1937). Also believed computers could fool interrogator to believe was human (“imitation game”). Claude Shannon saw how to use electrical circuits for Boolean/logic gates. In isolation at Iowa State, John Antanasoff created the first partly electronic digital computer. Harvard’s Mark I was functional but slow. Bletchley Park’s Colossus I was electronic and programmable. War Department funded Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) in 1943; Presper Eckert and John Mauchly completed first modern computer in 1945 with over 17,000 vacuum tubes and weighed 30 tons. Used for computing artillery trajectories and developing hydrogen bomb.
Programming: ENIAC was programmed by re-plugging cables by hand. Six women revolutionized programming. Grace Hopper perfected the subroutine, chunks of code for specific tasks called by the main program when needed. John Von Neumann (Harvard) pioneered a “memory” which meant tasks could be changed almost instantly. UPenn proposed EDVAC (successor to ENIAC). As Bill Gates recognized, hardware would become commoditized and programming was where true value resided.
Transistor: William Shockley led team (of Bardeen and Brattain) at Bell Labs to find solid-state replacement for vacuum tubes (semiconductor like silicon or germanium). Bell Labs also pioneered computer circuitry, laser technology, and cell phones, but failed to capitalize them; Pat Haggerty brought transistors to commercial markets. Shockley was brilliant but arrogant and his employees quit to create Fairchild Semiconductor. But he did lay seeds for Silicon Valley, which was also driven by Stanford University and NASA research center near Sunnyvale (spurred LMT and Westinghouse).
Microchip: Growing needs for integrated circuits led to simultaneous invention of microchip at Texas Instruments and Fairchild Semiconductor. Led to a nasty patent war between Jack Kilby and Robert Noyce, ultimately settled by a peace treaty. Nuclear missiles and the space program spurred development. Hearing aids were first use, but demand surged for pocket calculators. Moore’s Law said the number of transistors on a microchip could double each year. Arthur Rock developed venture capital, and Noyce created a new type of anti-hierarchical corporate culture at Intel.
Video Games: Video games helped propagate the idea that computers should interact with people in real time, have intuitive interfaces, and feature delightful graphic displays. Steve Russell pioneered Spacewar as an open-source project, but Nolan Bushnell fathered the industry with Atari and Pong.
Internet: Built by the partnership of the military, universities, and private corporations. Original champion was Vannevar Bush (who spanned all three). ARPANET founder JCR Licklider pioneered decentralized networks and human-machine interfaces. Bob Taylor “blackmailed” Larry Roberts to join ARPANET. Key developments were using standardized microchips to route data and packet switching (breaking down messages into small pieces). Sputnik and nuke defense spurred RAND/MIT/Raytheon funding, although the academics actually building network had peaceful purposes. DoD secrecy/hierarchy clashed with desire for decentralization and resiliency. First comm was in 1969; sent “Lo” (meant to be log) from Palo Alto to UCLA. A year later, Harvard PhD Bob Metcalfe created a coax cable he named “ethernet.” IP/TCP followed soon after.
Personal Computer: NASA researched dozens of pens, joysticks, trackballs, and one which measured knee movement before Doug Engelbart invented the mouse. Kay championed simplicity and rejected the idea of dumb terminals connecting to a centralized processor. Bell and Xerox were leading research labs, but Xerox was still focused on the copier. Felsenstein created the Homebrew Computer Club in 1975.
Software: Gates was a reckless nerd, berating dumber students and driving recklessly (called Porsche to complain could only reach 121 mph). He applied to Harvard, Yale, and Princeton, blowing off his interview for MIT to play pinball. He was 3 badges short of Eagle Scout and 2 semesters short of a Harvard degree. Gates and Allen worked at MITS which created Altair 8800. By writing software which worked on many types of machines, it allowed Micro-soft and not hardware makers to define the market. Widespread pirating of BASIC helped it become the standard and Gates strong-armed IBM. Steve Wozniak was the hardware guy, Jobs the visionary and software guru. Apple II was the first simple and fully integrated personal computer, but marked a decline of the hobbyist culture and started mass production. Xerox PARC pioneered bitmapping and GUI, which both Jobs and Gates pilfered for their products.
Online: Modem finally connected home computers to global networks, slow coming because AT&T protected near-monopoly over the nation’s phone system. Bill von Meister (first media entrepreneur) invented America Online. Al Gore pushed legislation to spread and commercialize the internet, and his actual quote was “I took the initiative in creating the internet.”
The Web: Tim Berners-Lee developed the World Wide Web, which took off in 1993. The University of Illinois created the first easy-to-install browser, Mosaic. Justin Hill was a pioneer of blogs, but Ev Williams created blogger, which democratized publishing. Ward Cunningham created wikis, which brought collaboration and Jimmy Wales invented Wikipedia. As content increased, Larry Page and Sergey Brin revolutionized search with Google.
Lessons:
Innovation is as much melding others’ ideas as coming up with your own: “Intuition is nothing but the outcome of earlier intellectual experience.” –Einstein. New ideas occur when a lot of random notions churn together until they coalesce.
Need the combination of practical engineers (Presper Eckert, Walter Brattain, Steve Wozniak) and creative geniuses (John Mauchly, William Shockley, Steve Jobs).
Innovation occurs when ripe seeds fall on fertile ground. Since Leonardo da Vinci was military advisor to Cesare Borgia, war has mobilized science.
Ongoing Debate: More innovation from free sharing of IP or patent protections to keep profitable? Apple model of integrated hardware/software and Microsoft model of unbundled products each had advantages, but combination most effective.
We may not have true AI for another generation or more. Computers are good at calculations, humans at creation. Need to augment each other.
Australia was previously populated by Aboriginals, which are now Australia’s greatest social failing, subject to discrimination and poor living conditions. Cook discovered Australia by accident but mistook rainy season for dry and overstated its livability. Britain used as prison for petty criminals (despite 8 month journey to get there). Six territories joined in 1901. The casualty rate for Australian soldiers in WWI was 65%. After nearly conquered by Japan in WWII, realized they needed to populate or perish and welcomed all Europeans. 1956 Melbourne Olympics spurred most development.
Once believed to be sparse in natural resources, it was discovered to have massive stocks of iron ore. Australia has thousands of species because of isolation and harsh climate forces specialization. Australia is exceedingly lethal with dozens of deadly snakes (taipan), spiders, jellyfish (box), and crocodiles. 5% of the land contains 80% of the people. The outback is impenetrable, with devastating heat and lack of water. You lose an entire day traveling to Australia, but get it back when you return. The Northern Territory (Darwin) is required by law to vote but not officially part of Australia so representatives only observe.
Canberra: isolated, suburban. Perth: nice big park. Melbourne: funky, welcoming. Sydney: big, beautiful
-The last Ambassador to Germany before WWII, William Dodd was a State Department outsider who loved history and hist farm, but leveraged personal relationship with FDR. He was simultaneously fighting elitism/opulence within foreign service.
-He believed Hitler was too brutal and irrational to last. Still, he picked battles carefully, trying to maintain positive relations (e.g. holding stories from press) as the Nazi government radicalized. Increasing trends of violence against Americans who don’t salute passing parades. Dodd tries to sound the alarm after the “Night of the Long Knives” when Hitler murdered 200+ political competitors in 24 hours.
-Two personal meetings with Hitler, who acted surprised by the violence and then quickly lost his temper. Tremendous infighting between SA storm troopers, SS secret police, and military until Hitler consolidates power.
-Dodd’s daughter Martha sleeps with dozens of men including Gestapo leader Rudolf Diels and Russian intelligence operative Boris Vinogradov, who nearly recruited her as a communist source.
-Seeks to explain/predict Putin’s actions by focusing on the events that shaped him. Despite his personal wealth, he is not motivated by greed. He is a master of manipulating information, and promotes contradictory images of himself. Six identities:
Statist: Putin arrived in Moscow in 1996 amidst chaos–Putin channeled the Russian elite’s view that the state needed to restore order. He believes in Russian values: patriotism, collectivism, solidarity, and that Russia is destined to become a great power.
History Man: A self-designated student of history, Putin has a firm conviction that his personal destiny is intertwined with the of the Russian state. He actively deploys his own interpretation of history to reinforce policy positions and frame key events. He is obsessed with averting social upheaval/revolution/disunity.
Survivalist: His parents were survivors of one of the darkest periods–over 670 thousand Leningraders died during the Soviet blockade. Part of Russia’s narrative is constant battles for survival against a hostile outside world (invasions by Swedes, Poles, French, Germans). He literally created stocks of natural resources and has sought to make the Russian financial system less beholden to international markets (paid off debt).
Outsider: From St. Petersburg, not part of the intelligentsia or traditional Communist Party. He remained loyal to the state rather than a particular ideology or individual. In his early days, he preferred to work quietly behind the scenes. Constant use of populist language and crude pop culture references to convey a message or win people over.
Free Marketeer: Understood Russia needed a free market to survive. But winners were not necessarily the most skilled or efficient, but the best at exploiting others’ vulnerabilities. Believed in “wheeling and dealing.” By most accounts, he ran the economy well (aided by oil prices). He did not reverse the trend of privatization.
Case Officer: Was neither spy nor analyst, he identified, recruited, and ran agents. Taught him to work with people and handle a large amount of information. He used his skills to recruit support later on.
-Putin created a system which he runs like a CEO. He is not a revolutionary, but a conservative reformer. He has a small group of advisors and they can disagree before a decision but never after. Problems: little autonomy at lower levels (paralysis after 2004 terrorist attack). The state apparatus is too large and built on distrust/corruption (money doesn’t buy loyalty but blackmail does).
-While Medvedev was in power, Putin avoided public appearances but still pulled the strings. He was not prepared for the opposition when he returned (had been in Dresden during perestroika), but used propaganda and a steel fist (e.g. Pussy Riot to workcamps) to assure re-election.
-He saw the 1990s not as a period of integration, but of (self-imposed) humiliation, and was convinced the color revolutions (Georgia 2003, Ukraine 2004) were a staging ground for Western intervention. US-funded NGOs were trying it in Russia as well. Putin seems Western (first leader to live abroad since Lenin). Long used Germany as interlocutor, and takes a pragmatic view of the US (likes Kissinger). Thought 9/11 would reset relations but NATO kept expanding, after Iraq invasion saw US as driven dangerously by emotion and hubris.
-Putin’s foreign policy has continuously become more assertive. In 2006, he paid off debt; reached out to old USSR allies in Africa, Asia, ME, LAC (China, Japan, BRICs); sought to join organizational membership in 2000s for leverage if relations soured. 2008 Georgian war was impetus for military reform, accomplished little by 2012, but more by 2014. Snowden was a PR and intelligence coup for Putin. Does less censoring of internet than China, but sought to flood it with his own content.
-Putin’s Eurasian Union was as much political buffer as economic union. Bet on Yanukovych, who was loyal but lost his country. Operation Ukraine set set out to accomplish strategic deterrence against 21st century war. He got what he wanted–Russia could no longer be ignored. He now seeks a “New Yalta” with the West in political and security terms. Sanctions are not effective, but Putin must avoid conventional war. Putin is a skilled strategist willing to fight as long as it takes, but he understands little about us.
-To invent a new market is only a matter of finding a new asset to hock. The most obvious untapped asset in America was the home. In the early 1990s, many companies became involved in “specialty finance” (extending loans to cash-strapped Americans).
-A mortgage bond was a pool of thousands of individual home mortgages. They grouped bonds in tranches (first tranches like ground floor of a building–highest yields but first to get hit by flood). The hope was mass marketing the bonds would drive down cost to borrowers (and increase interface between high finance and lower-middle class America). But they were used deceptively to attract people who couldn’t pay them back (flaws in use of FICO scores for granting loans). One stripper had five different home equity loans.
-Credit default swaps are insurance policies, typically on a corporate bond, with semiannual premium payments and a fixed term. Eisman/Burry used these on shorts to hedge their bets and help account for uncertainty in timing of when the market would crash.
-Similar to the swaps, Goldman Sachs created the forever misunderstood synthetic subprime mortgage bond-backed collateralized debt obligation (CDO). These involved taking the lowest floors (tranches) of the bonds and using them to construct an entirely new tower which were somehow given AAA+ ratings.
-Who was on the “other side” of these bets? AIG, Wing Chau (CDO manager at Harding Advisory), UBS, Morgan Stanley, Ambac Financial Group, MBIA. Many assumed housing prices would never fall. When the crash started, the banks denied it, staged “power outages,” and ran models to get different numbers. The IMF put losses on subprime mortgage markets at $1 trillion, but all the major players left rich.
-Wall Street loved the bond market because it was confusing enough to make huge sums of money from the fear and ignorance of customers. But Wall Street CEOs didn’t understand the most basic questions about their balance sheets. The entrenched culture and incentives for greed didn’t help.
-The rating industry employees barely belonged in their industry. The government didn’t stop it because it didn’t understand it. They would frame it as a “crisis of confidence” but these were literally worthless bonds.
-Three distinct groups discovered the foul play:
Steve Eisman, Vinny, Danny (~Morgan Stanley)/Greg Lippmann (Deutsche Bank)
Michael Burry (Gotham/Scion Capital): Cancer cost left eye, Asperger’s. Blogged on finance while MD at hospital. Despite earning 726% gains for investors, they abandoned him.
Charlie Ledley, Jamie Mai, Ben (Cornwall Capital Management): Found Lippmann presentation. Came in late but offered some advantages. Tried contacting reporters and the SEC, but they had no interest in trying to understand.
“There were more morons than crooks, but the crooks were higher up.”
“The Golden Rule: People who have the gold make the rules.”
“On Wall Street, the lawyers play the same role as medics in war: They come in after the shooting is over to clean up the mess.”
The Venetian Casino is full of random effects designed to heighten and exploit irrationality (days feel like nights, etc.). Casinos list the wheel’s most recent spins to help gamblers delude themselves.
-Escobar was born solidly middle class, but during la Violencia in Colombia. He was an exceptionally daring child criminal who remained calm when others were frightened. He wasn’t a talented businessman, but was ruthless (“plato or plomo,” silver or lead). He regarded his murders as having no consequence to society writ large. He rarely did cocaine but loved marijuana and moderate drinking. When Minister of Justice Rodrigo Lara ended Escobar’s political career in 1984, Escobar had him killed (and subsequently killed 30 judges who worked the murder). This began all out war with the state.
-In the 1970s, the weed generation discovered cocaine. In 1986, the war on drugs began. The U.S. government was initially only interested in links to guerrillas, but the downing of an Avianca airline brought international condemnation of Escobar.
-Until Colonel Martinez, the command of Search Bloc was so dangerous it was rotated every month. The US established Centra Spike to monitor telecommunications in the region. Escobar was so brutal it was hard to find any informants, and rewards paled in comparison to drug money.
-Pablo sought to cause enough pain he would have to receive an offer. He struck the elites by kidnapping the journalist and daughter of former President Diana Turbay. Fellow Extradictables Gacha was killed by a helicopter while Ochoa turned himself in. Escobar won a deal to admit to a single charge of drug trafficking and build himself a prison on la Catedral, and the public quickly forgave him for his murders.
-In prison, Escobar sought to rebuild. Knowing his calls were monitored, he began using pigeons. He often left, and never missed a soccer game. Gaviria had the army surround the prison, but they refused to enter. Vice Minister Eduardo Mendoza went in to negotiate and was taken hostage. When special forces stormed, Escobar escaped an entire brigade. Gaviria decided this was the last time he would be embarrassed by Escobar.
-US Ambassador Busby called on Delta Force (CIA better at collection than action, DEA/FBI were more law enforcement). The military sent over 20 military planes (C-130s, P-3s, AWACS, etc.) and associated crews, but Busby sent all home except Delta, Centra Spike, and CIA. Busby denied Pablo’s family entry to Florida, on the grounds that children under 18 needed their parents with them. Later, he got his family to Germany before being sent back home.
-The public’s response to Escobar’s renewed bombing campaign was anger, and by February 1993 formed an equally deadly group called Los Pepes (People Persecuted by Pablo Escobar) to target Escobar’s sicarios. Gaviria denounced the outright civil war, but it was a useful counterweight to Escobar. There was concern Delta Force trained/supported Los Pepes.
-Martinez’s son was in charge of capturing the signal. After a series of near misses, he was assigned to an easier narco target, which he found. Finally in December 1993, after initially calling the wrong building, he saw Escobar in a nearby window. A lengthy shootout ended with the killing of Pablo on the roof.
-“Normal” theory of civil-military relations: politicians shield military leaders from the politics and give them freedom to do their job (as you would treat your surgeon). But Clausewitz calls war the continuation of politics by other means. Politics touches every aspect of war. There needs to be a melding of minds at the top. Politicians must get involved in military matters they know less about (“unequal dialogue”).
Vietnam and Iraq are examples of failed civil-military relations.
Lincoln
Only combat experience was a wrestling match with a fellow captain in the Black Hawk Indian War.
But he didn’t just strike gold with Grant; he exercised constant oversight of the war from beginning to end. Had to constantly educate his generals about the purpose of the war and its political characteristics. Lincoln told his Generals Lee’s army was the center of gravity–not Richmond.
His resupply of Fort Sumter masterfully forced the Confederacy to fire the first shots.
Quickly understood the implications of technology (rifle, railroad, telegraph). Used former journalist and Assistant Secretary of War Charles Dana as his personal observer on the battlefield to provide objective accounts.
Clemenceau
Walked the trenches with his men. Defense in depth should have been a tactical decision but became political because it meant different things to different countries and was bound to prove more manpower intensive.
Clemenceau’s management of competing military advice and philosophy required a stream of decisions, not an overall choice in favor of Foch or Petain.
When the Americans arrived (as “associated” powers), the Allies wanted them to plug holes in the line but they wanted to launch glorious counterattacks for democracy.
Foch to Clemenceau: “Do you know that I am not your subordinate?” The rivalry only worsened during peace negotiations (Foch was aware of his status as war hero).
Churchill
Legacy is increasingly under attack for meddling in affairs he did not fully understand. But he built a hugely professional and effective war fighting system. Despite leisurely meals and occasional naps, he worked from early morning to late night.
While his operational record is mixed, his strategic record is good, and he masterfully managed to keep the allied alliance cohesive. He regularly “audited” military judgement. Also a discerning consumer of intelligence.
Most of all, he was a leader who inspired his own people and sustained morale through victory.
Ben-Gurion
Trends: None dictated to subordinates; they may coax but don’t act like generalissimo. None were military or technical experts. All were aware that the experts might be equally mistaken. They all had an eye for detail and a gift for integrating a vast amalgam of constantly changing, multicolored, evanescent, perpetually overlapping data. They could pick out what was new (e.g. technology). They were able to decide when political considerations must override legitimate, even pressing military ones. All were more willing to dismiss their most senior generals than is the norm today (a general in wartime is an imposing figure for the “armchair strategist”). All mastered the art of speech and writing and used their rhetoric to persuade and gain respect. None gave away future plans but would go to great pains to explain the path they had followed thus far. All had moderation that combined the ability to discipline his passions, and an understanding of when and how to counteract a trend. They understood the culminating point of victory at which to stop.
-FBI: “Bureaucracy is literally it’s middle name.” Hoover pulled FBI out of Interpol in 1950 for fear of communist influence. COINTELPRO had started in the 1950s but leaked in 1973–lots of extralegal method. Realized fighting drugs was a losing battle—resulted in the creation of the DEA in 1973. After Hoover left, the FBI diversified by allowing women/minorities.
-Terrorism first captured global attention in 1972 (year Hoover died): Munich, 11/11 hijacking. The 1981 inauguration was the first to mention terrorism. 1982 Beirut bombing was first such FBI deployment overseas. The 1986 anti-terrorism act made overseas crimes prosecutable in the U.S.—put FBI on CIA turf. In some ways the FBI has more freedom overseas as they work with local law enforcement while the CIA works through ambassadors and politicians. -“Pizza Case”: massive case against Italian drug Mafiosi working out of NYC pizza shops put together by Louis Freeh, Rudy Giuliani, Michael Chertoff. Trials lasted 17 months. -Lockerbie: Small Bomb brought down Pan American flight from London to NYC. Crash remains largest crime scene ever investigated. 10,000 leads took three years. Mueller worked every angle from DOJ. Intel said Syria was behind it (was Libya)…Mueller remembers this as proof intelligence lacks the rigor of investigation. Lockerbie set precedent terrorism could be dealt with through legal system (until 9/11). -In the 1990s, the number of attacks declined but the magnitude of each went up. Freeh never spoke to Clinton for 4 years (saw him as corrupt, criminal). After the Cold War, funding poured from the CIA into the FBI. Freeh was so powerful that Tenet asked him to swear him in as DCI. After the USS Cole bombing, Freeh spoke of prioritizing CT but the staff and budget actually dwindled. In July 2001 AG Ashcroft told the FBI, “I don’t want to hear anything more about al-Qaeda.” -Buck Revel and later John O’Neill became one-man marketing machines for CT at the FBI. O’Neill was the master of managing liaison with foreign services. He could drink with them all night and show up clean cut early the next morning. Mueller:
Marine Corps in Vietnam, UVA Law, couldn’t find a job with government so he joined a private firm for a few years. Took a 75% pay cut to leave his private firm and become the homicide DA in DC. Then AUSA in SF.
Having started one week prior, nobody blamed him for 9/11, but found himself fighting to leave the Bureau intact and change its culture. Some agents grew frustrated with Mueller’s “transformation” when they’d been predictive all along (“We don’t have a director, we have two inspector generals”). Anyone who worked CT pre-9/11 became toxic.
The only member of the security leadership (besides Tom Ridge) with combat experience. He was decisive without being impulsive. A Marine who followed orders, so he didn’t object when Cheney put the CIA in the lead for the 9/11 response. Resisted enhanced interrogation and government surveillance, though perhaps not strongly enough. The Fox show 24 helped solidify the message that torture worked, but a true “ticking-time bomb” scenario has never occurred in real life.
Mueller was skeptical of former hockey teammate John Kerry, but liked Obama immediately for his intellect and pragmatism. Long history with Holder. Mueller’s other reforms were new IT systems and HR practices (controversial “move up or out” policy).
9/11 Tips:
Phoenix memo: Agent wrote 10-page memo about trend of suspicious individuals enrolling in flight school. Some read, nobody acted.
CIA failed to tell FBI that two known AQ operatives (hijackers) were in the U.S. They even stayed with an FBI informant but he didn’t raise any alarm. FBI later found out by accident but were told it was intelligence and they couldn’t open a criminal investigation. They were reported to INS but not put on the no-fly list.
Ali Soufan requested more information from CIA in relation to Cole bombing but was denied each time. On 9/11, the New York office pulled flight manifests and immediately recognized names of AQ.
-Half the Bureau’s agents have joined since 9/11. Before 9/11, being an FBI analyst was a thankless job, treated like clerks. In 1996, it hired 36 analysts and half quit. Nobody lost their job because of 9/11, but the Commission set out to blame FBI dysfunction. After 9/11, every threat was taken seriously and every bit of information was shared with everyone. Threat matrix: a daily spreadsheet used to track all unfolding terror plots and intelligence rumors. Bush received CIA briefing at 8am, FBI at 8:30 (“first offense, then defense”). -Afghanistan: FBI initially sent 8 agents to Afghanistan to track evidence to prosecute detainees but were overwhelmed. -Iraq: A small FBI team went to Iraq with the invasion but their mission expanded to training Iraqi police. Training challenges: Iraqi honor meant they refused to step to the side when assailants rushed them in combat training. George Piro controlled every aspect of the Hussein interrogation. Kept him isolated but no EIT. By 2011, 70% of FBI R&D was going toward IED attacks. -Several high-level DOJ officials prepared to resign over the terrorist surveillance program the morning of the Madrid bombings. Comey and Mueller rushed to GW hospital to prevent CoS Card from forcing AG Ashcroft to sign off. When Bush found out Mueller would resign, he changed his mind. But FBI did expand its own authority through national security letters which compelled phone companies to hand over records. -Obama’s first experience with terrorism was the Mumbai attack. The new challenge became radicalization through the internet.
-Father was Italian immigrant who arrived at Ellis Island with $20. Born in Monterey, worked at family restaurant. Admired Eisenhower and was Republican until Watergate. Army lawyer and intelligence officer. Staffer for CA senator. Assistant to secretary for health, education, and welfare, became director for civil rights. Nixon fired for pushing desegregation too hard, alienating the south. Wrote a book and joined New York mayor. Worked for brother’s law firm. Elected to Congress in 1977, left family in CA with wife as district assistant. Issues:
protected Monterey coast from drilling
extended Medicare to cover hospice
closed Fort Ord so replaced with Cal State Monterey Bay
-Given budget expertise, Clinton tapped him for OMB. Sought deficit reduction. Clinton asked him to take charge of an undisciplined WH as Chief of Staff. Followed Baker model of constricting information to the president. Epic battles with Gingrich, resulting in 1996 government shutdown. Chose to leave for Clinton’s second term, relaxed and started Panetta institute in CA.
-In 2006, served on Iraq Study Group with Gates. Supported Hillary, advised Obama on Emanuel, who offered him CIA (to restore credibility). Obama released torture memos over Panetta’s objection but praised CIA efforts. Tried to mend unsteady relations with Congress, but cooled relations with old friend Feinstein. Afghanistan surge was preordained decision, but by protocol Panetta couldn’t attend meetings Blair didn’t. Blair tried to appoint CIA station chiefs but Panetta nullified the cable. Wanted to focus on AQ over Taliban. Facilitated prisoner swap after arrest of 10 Russian illegals. CIA now popular in Latin America for work against Narcos. By 2006, UBL was no longer a top priority, but Obama pushed it. B-2 bomb option was actually eliminated early on but an option to use a drone while he was on his walk remained on the table throughout. Panetta pushed informing Congress of progress throughout.
-Gates recommended Panetta to succeed at DOD and on the heels of UBL was confirmed 100-0. 5,000 died in Iraq, 2,500 in Afghanistan, and 50,000 wounded in both. The Army suffered the most deaths. Strongly sided with Israel: helped buy iron dome; supported Gaza invasion. Urged Israel to trust that US would take out Iranian reactors during breakout period (more effectively than IDF could). Rejected a 5-for-1 swap for Bergdahl in 2012 because didn’t trust Taliban (was later accepted in 2014). In the 1980s alone the military spent $550M to expel 17,000 gays. Wrote a check for $630 for each trip home to CA on military jet, totaled around $17,000 per year. But given communications equipment, cost $860,000.
Deng Xiaoping began economic opening in 1978. Privatization didn’t square with “socialism with Chinese characteristics,” so they called it Corporatization. Much of initial U.S engagement was educational. If western companies took over Chinese SOEs, they would fire close to 80% of workers (e.g. PetroChina restructuring). Chinese leadership is intimately involved in the minutiae of the economy: it only takes one well-positioned Chinese leader to kill a deal (or policy). China is not a monolithic state, as policies from above are muddled by local and provincial governments. Bureaucracies tend to be bottom heavy.
Xi pushes some environmental reform and successful corruption campaign, but consolidated power of the military, maintained strict one party rules and cracked down on free speech. He will not easily reconcile a dynamic free economy with tightened social and political activities.
PAULSON: Negotiated deal for Goldman Sachs to oversee privatization/IPO of Chinese telecommunications in 1997. Helped revamp a program for Chinese executives in US. Morgan Stanley was chasing profits while China wanted modernization and partnership.
Became Treasury Secretary July 2006. Launched strategic economic dialogue (SED), first meeting was rising star Xi Jingping. Sought working groups and deliverables rather than a series of speeches. Major issues:
Currency manipulation (middleman between Congress and China)
Foreign company ownership cap (33%)
Scandals damages “made in China” brand
Chinese representation at international fora (this can be good if disincentivizes them to create their own institutions)
Balancing act of convincing Congress situation was dire enough to take action without panicking markets. Had to wake Bob Gates to stop a ship from sailing through Taiwan strait during meetings. Switched Chinese hotel rooms with his kids, causing consternation because the other one wasn’t bugged. The financial crisis exposed China’s overdependence on exports and need to rebalance towards domestic consumption. All the national central bankers blamed each other for the crisis. Found Bo Xilai self-absorbed, but still surprised by sensational corruption and murder. Paulson Institute looks at urbanization and environmental issues across China.
BLUF: While ideas and individual actions shape history, human beings operate under constraints imposed by geography and the vast and varied phenomena that emanate from it: everything from persistent, albeit changeable, national characteristics to the location of trade routes to the requirement for natural resources. “Military deployments are ephemeral: roads, rail links, and pipelines can be virtually forever.”
Europe: Antiquity was defined by geographic hold over the Mediterranean. Expect Europe’s center of gravity to move southward and increasingly encompass North Africa.
Russia: The world’s predominant land power, extending 170 degrees of longitude. Without seas to protect them, land powers are perennially insecure; Russia’s flat expanse provides almost no natural borders. Its intense cold seems to have developed a capacity for suffering. The humiliating Mongol expansion denied Russian participation in the Renaissance. Ivan (IV) the Terrible and Peter the Great both defined the expansionism. Russia’s emergence as a great power was driven by oil, gas, and iron ore. Russia should want to politically attach itself to Europe and economically attach itself to east Asia, but Putin has opted for neo-czarist expansionism, which his country’s natural resources make possible in the short term.
Kazakhstan is rich in all the world’s strategic natural resources and smack in the middle of Eurasia.
China: Became a vast continent in and of itself by virtue of its continual backwards and forward interactions with an Inner Asian steppe-land. The question is whether the dominant Hans (90%, mostly in arable east) are able to keep the peripheral Tibetans, Uighur Turks, and Inner Mongolians under control. Whereas China has a generally favorable position along its land borders, it faces a more hostile environment at sea. Its emphasis on territorial claims over free shipping lanes reflect its insecurity and lack of a blue-water navy
North Korea is the true pivot of East Asia, whose unraveling could affect the destiny of the whole region for decades to come. China wants to install a Beijing-friendly government there.
Taiwan is the other main focal point. The US will not be able to defend Taiwan from Chinese attack by 2020. But to abandon the ally could undermine relationships with Japan, South Korea, etc.
India: the ultimate pivot state. Its natural boundaries are quite weak and Pakistan’s security threat (nukes equalize the powers) rob India of its energy for power projection. India is the birthplace of Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, and Sikhism; Muslims, Jews, and Christians also live peacefully. Pakistan is less inclusive, which explains its instability.
Afghanistan: In terms of geography, barely a country at all; cathedral-like mountain ranges which seal divisions between Pashtuns and Tajiks. Also a battleground between India and Pakistan.
Middle East: Characterized by a disorderly and bewildering array of kingdoms, sultanates, theocracies, democracies, and military-style autocracies, whose common borders look formed by an unsteady knife. Adding the instability is possession of 70% of the world’s oil reserves and 40% of natural gas. Finally, the populations are all very young.
Saudi Arabia: size of India but scarcely populated (Yemen has nearly as many, Iran has 2.5 times as many).
Iran: straddles the rich energy fields of both the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea, as well as the Middle East proper and Central Asia. Best organized state in the region besides Turkey and Israel. Strong soft power, although dulled by the suffocating clerical rule.
Turkey: controls access to the Black Sea and the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates (Iraq and Syria’s water supply). Erdogan gave power to a wave of Islamism that had been creeping back into Turkish life since Ataturk–until 1918, was the home of Islam.
Syria: The epicenter for regional turbulence. Historical fervent pan-Arabism was substitute for a weak state. Assad presents jihadists an enemy that is at once tyrannical, secular, and heretical (killed thousands of Sunnis in 1970-80s). Jihadists have deep logistical familiarity with Syria and once the killing starts, people revert to long-suppressed sectarian identities.
Israel: Jews will soon become a minority in the lands they occupy or rule from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean. Once can only hope they decide to make pivotal territorial concessions.
Africa: The natural world has given Africa much to labor against in its path to modernity–the world’s most feeble economies are predominantly land-locked.
United States: Our massive investments in Iraq and Afghanistan would have been better spent on Mexico. By 2050, a third of the US population could be Spanish-speaking. While we are different from previous declining empires, we need to focus on alliances.
Chronicles several sexual assaults in Missoula, MT and the broken system for justice.
-80% of rapes go unreported to law enforcement. Going through a trial is exactly the opposite of what victims need (questions rather than support). Penetration is unique crime. Leaves victim forever fearful.
-Legal system biased against victims. Detectives/prosecutors own decision of whether to press charges and are overly cautious. University conduct council more willing to pursue truth (worst punishment is expulsion).
-Difficult to prove rape because drugs/alcohol, few witnesses, ambiguity around consent (courts have found moaning to be consent). DNA/rape kits help but not proof.
-Witnesses have to tell the truth but lawyers receive tremendous leeway to lie. Difference between two primary cases was Beau admitted guilt on tape (and Johnson was star QB).
History followed different courses for different regions because of differences among peoples’ environments, not because of biological differences among people themselves. Factors:
Availability of wild plant and animal species (food)
Rates of diffusion and migration (geography)
Degree of isolation (geography)
Area or population size (drives innovation)
Why did Europeans conquer native Americans and not vice versa? Food (more meat), germs, technology, political organization, and writing.
GERMS: Disease is the largest killer of humans. Most deadly diseases evolve from animals. Evolutionarily speaking, most symptoms of diseases (coughing, diarrhea) are merely mechanisms to further spread germs. A fever is our body’s way of trying to burn a germ. Europeans dominated others not only with weapons, but diseases. They had the most because they had the most domesticated animals.
WRITING: Writing started as pictures, the Sumerians evolved to phonetics (things that sounded like what the picture represented). The Greeks were the first to introduce vowels.
TECHNOLOGY: Technology develops cumulatively, rather than in big jumps . Most inventions are driven by curiosity rather than necessity. Most inventions find their uses afterwards.
GOVERNMENT: Society is constantly shifting to larger and more complex organizations (bands-tribes-chiefdoms-states)
Relative to other regions, China is amazingly politically, culturally, and linguistically monolithic. It unified early (221 BC) because geography allowed it (long rivers, no desert)
Humans came to America between 14000 and 35000 years ago. Americas used to be full of large mammals (herds of elephants).
-Humam Khalil al-Balawi was an introverted Jordanian doctor who maintained a radical jihadist blog under an alias. After being questioned by the Mukhabarat (Jordanian intelligence), he suggested he travel to Pakistan as an informant in exchange for payment. He dreamed Zarqawi selected him for an act of jihad. Balawi’s Jordanian handler was Ali bin Zeid (cousin of the King) and CIA officer was Darren LaBonte.
-A report of the Pakistani Taliban possessing a dirty bomb led to a massive increase in drone strikes in FATA. One killed leader Baitullah Mehsud, Balawi’s handler/protector. Balawi was terrible at AQ training (he broke his leg on a motorcycle and couldn’t fire a gun), but was in high demand as a doctor. Baitullah was eventually succeeded by H Mehsud, and Belawi met Sheikh Saeed al-Masri, AQ no. 3. They fed videos to catch CIA’s attention and hatched a plan to draw bin Zeid to Pakistan and kidnap him. CIA Islamabad refused, however, and convinced Balawi to meet them at Khost.
-Since being named in a classified report on the 9/11 failing, Jennifer Matthews—who had been with “Alex Station” since 1996—was obsessed with finding UBL. Despite little experience running agents and none in a war zone, she was ambitious and accepted a position running the Khost station. She was supported by Elizabeth Hanson, a talented young targeter.
-A video showing Balawi with Zawahiri caused quite a stir at the CIA—the closest they had been since Tora Bora in 2002. The President was briefed and Matthews prepared a 16-person to welcome Balawi (complete with birthday cake). Allowing informants to skip the outer gate was not uncommon for their own protection, but LaBonte had a bad feeling (“too good to be true”). Just as he was grabbed, Balwai triggered a C4 suicide vest. Ten were killed (seven CIA) and six injured. The U.S. responded with five drone strikes in nine days, killing 62 AQ members. The day of Hanson’s funeral, the CIA killed Al-Masri.
-Few of the Revolutionary protesters gathering on National Students Day knew the objective; a small core of students (including Ahmadinejad) had planned a three-day set-in to condemn U.S. acceptance of the Shah. It was agreed the assault would be non-violent. Acting U.S. ambassador and two others were at the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where they stayed throughout the crisis. There were just over 60 people; and only three CIA. The Iranian government had quickly intervened when the embassy was overrun in February, so there was not major concern throughout the assault—the staffers destroyed most documents and collected guns, but never used them.
-The ease of overrun surprised the students, who were such amateurs they didn’t know what to do (one interrogator accidentally put a bag on himself instead of the American, asked his role in events before he was born). There was one major mock execution (a “joke”), and beatings for resistance throughout, but only “torture” was hitting hands of CIA station chief Tom Ahern and operative Bill Daugherty with rubber hoses. Ahern left damning cable which identified him and Daugherty and mentioned efforts to “influence events.” But that was only evidence of nefarious activities. Most staffers refused to provide information, giving false names (e.g. Mickey Mouse), but army officer Joe Subic spilled everything he knew.
-There was no clear leadership in Iran. Khomeini initially condemned the assault, but quickly changed course. Several times, he backed out of a deal to turn the hostages over to the provisional government at the last minute. The students used the U.S. press as an ally and let them move freely in the city (allowed clergy and a mother visit hostages). They got several of the hostages to denounce U.S. policy under duress. They created a library and permitted some workouts, but little communication. Limbert learned of the Argo escape in a sports magazine his guard let him read; letters contained parables to keep apprised of current events; a simple code was given to the CIA to decipher but they couldn’t. A handful of escape attempts failed. Howland snuck around in the nude, knowing the squeamishness of Iranians could give him a split second advantage if caught. Queen was set free after developing MS.
-Carter made no bad decisions, but was hamstrung and criticized throughout. Advisor Brzezinski proposed rescue while Vance proposed diplomacy (and resigned after Eagle Claw). He was determined not to let politics play a role, and continued to fight for freedom after losing election. He expelled Iranian diplomats, froze assets, and maintained secret channel to Khamenei aide, but they always backed out of deals. Other creative ideas (blockade, airstrikes, limited invasion) were unrealistic. He had little international support.
Colonel Beckwith created Delta Force for just such a mission. It was practiced extensively, but a long-shot to begin with (fly 850 miles into a foreign country in total darkness, rescue 60 hostages in two locations without injuring civilians): “the only difference between this and the Alamo is Davy Crockett didn’t have to fight his way in.” Six C-130s landed successfully at the Desert One checkpoint with 132 men and jet fuel. In a freak occurrence a bus of poor Iranian tourists drove by and so they had to be taken hostage. On the way there, one helicopter crashed, one turned back in a haboob (dust cloud), and a third was too damaged to fly. So they called off the mission. But on the way out, another chopper crashed into the C-130 full of troops, weapons, and oil, causing a massive explosion and killing eight troops. In the haste to leave, they left an intact helicopter detailing the entire classified plan. Beckwith blamed it on feckless helicopter pilots, but Carter accepted responsibility.
-After attempt, hostages were spread across the country and issue fell dead in U.S. Once the Iran-Iraq war started, they were moved back to a prison in Tehran. One night when the guard fell asleep they were able to briefly communicate. Ironically, the Iranian government decried a temporary takeover of the Iranian embassy in London as “illegal,” but British commandos freed the hostages. Carter was obsessed with resolving it before he left (Reagan avoided the issue), but Iranians denied him the glory and released the hostages on the day of inauguration. Some hostages went back to foreign service/CIA, but most retired or took small jobs. Most Iranians now look back on the incident with regret.
Army Rangers and Delta Force had been posted in Mogadishu for six months trying to capture Aidid. Problem was intelligence. Knew there was little tolerance for casualties but patience was wearing thin. 8 days prior, a 101st Blackhawk was shot down by RPG.
-Mission: Preferred night raids (night vision advantage and enemy crashing off khat), but was afternoon opportunity to grab two lieutenants. Blackburn missed rope, fell 70 ft. He was evacuated by humvee but his gunner was killed trying to leave. Delta force caught prisoners and were ready to go when the first MH-60 went down. Entire city turned against them. Somalis actually ran toward the violence, to see what was going on; the pinned down Americans killed many civilians. Islamist fighters from Sudan taught Aidid’s men how to use the RPGs to hit helicopters. They hid in the ground, lied on their backs and aimed for the rear rotor. Aidid knew the only way to kill Rangers was to pin them down at a crash site. Most “Sammies” (Somalis) barely showed themselves but sprayed bullets randomly, but about a fifth were trained militiamen.
Sent everyone to protect the first crash site, which was held by 99 troops overnight (with resupply). Convoy had total breakdown reaching the first crash site. Receiving directions from helicopters, command center, and P-3, all delayed. Two crash sites and two convoys only added to confusion. Drove through ambushes again and again. Base pulled together a ragtag group of injured and backups to convoy back in. Assembled the infantry and UN heavy armor for a 200 person rescue convoy, but took six hours to mobilize. Once there, spent 4 hours trying to recover pilot’s body. Then suddenly left, leaving uninjured Rangers to run behind APCs. A total of four Black Hawks were shot down. The second crash site was quickly overrun and pilot Durant taken alive. He was held in captivity for several days and released.
Task force hampered by lack of coordination between delta force and Rangers. Tensions between rash special ops and slow-moving rescue infantry
They broke protocol by not bringing night vision for the 3pm raid but quickly regretted it once dark.
Little Bird helis ran effective gun runs against advancing Aidid columns all night.
-Everest was confirmed tallest mountain in 1856, named after surveyor general Sir George Everest. “What it lacks in architectural grace, it makes up for with sheer, overwhelming mass.” When Nepal opened its borders in 1949, attempts shifted away from the Tibet side. In 1953, Sir Edmund Hillary and Sherpa Tenzing became the first man to summit. Starting in 1985, it began being commercialized, with permit prices increasing up to $70,000. Some clients even sued their guides if unsuccessful.
-Sherpas are mountain people, devoutly Buddhist, who originate from Tibet. They established four camps above base camp, each about 2,000 ft higher than the last. Planned as a month of acclimatization going up and down before a pushto the summit on May 10.
-“Climbing Everest is primarily about enduring pain.” Yet the physical and emotional demands of mountaineering are addictive. Individual actions have huge impacts on other team members, however the final push was largely independent as each person gave everything they had for the summit.
-1996 Teams:
Adventure Consultants (Rob Hall): Highly-respected leader of team (5 died)
Mountain Madness (Scott Fischer): Competing commercial leader
IMAX: Hugely helpful in rescues and oxygen provision
Taiwanese: Dangerously bold and crowded the May 10 summit attempt
South Africans: Fiercely independent and refused to help in crisis (1 died)
-Factors leading to disaster:
Hall failed to honor is 1pm deadline to turn around, staying until 4pm. Perhaps hubris, competition with Fischer, or a desire to let a client summit who had come 300 feet short the previous year.
Crowds at the Hillary Step meant waiting up to an hour in line to go up or down. Hall insisted the team stay together.
Sherpa Lopsang devoted tremendous effort and oxygen carrying wealthy client Sandy Pittman up.
Guide Anatoli Boukreev raced down without helping others; went back for Fischer too late.
Krakauer failed to correct Andy Harris’ mistakenly concluding oxygen tanks were empty. He also later mis-identified Harris as safe at camp when he was still on the summit.
Poor visibility caused several to bear off course and get lost.
Radios malfunctioned and failed to alert Hall he had oxygen waiting for him.
-On return to airport, a throng of reporters wanted a neatly scripted version of the calamity, “but the chaos and suffering I’d witnessed were not easily reduced to sound bites.” Completed his article for Outside Magazine, but wrote book to address errors and inconsistencies.
Book follows four characters:
T.E. Lawrence: British archeologist, military officer, diplomat.
William Yale: U.S. oil man and diplomat
Curt Prufer: German intelligence officer
Aaron Aaronsohn: Romanian Jewish agronomist and Zionist
-Lawrence possessed an instant affinity for the Middle East: “The foreigners come out here always to teach, whereas they had much better learn.” Simplistic moral view: “Love for the noble Arab, wary respect for the blustering Kurd, and hatred for the cruel Turk.” Drew similarities between scholarship in medieval military history and 20th century Middle East warfare.
-Winston’s Churchill’s announcement that the Royal Navy would move from coal to oil caused other navies to follow suit and skyrocketed demand for oil—spurring on Yale and Socony.
-What made Aaronsohn so influential was his Zionist arguments were not based on political or religious abstractions, but on agriculture. When the Jews found Palestine decrepit, Lord Rothschild bailed them out. Herzl’s book prompted much backlash amongst Jews for fear of portraying Jews as disloyal to their nations. When the Ottoman Empire collapsed, Aaronsohn went to Britain for protection; he was worried Ottomans would use WWI as excuse for genocide, as they did with Armenians.
-By the early 1910s, with all the European powers perpetually jockeying for advantage, manufacturing crises, a “fog of war” was setting in, one composed of a thousand petty slights and disputes and misunderstandings. This made it hard to know when a true crisis was occurring. One reason for the cult of the offensive was that the new instruments of war had previously been employed almost exclusively against those who didn’t have them (e.g. non-Europeans).
-Lawrence set up shop in a Cairo military intelligence unit and called for an invasion at Alexandretta, Turkey, but French objection (because they wanted Syria after the war) and British short-sightedness led to the ill-fated amphibious invasion at Gallipoli (worst possible landing site).
-For reasons of distance and scant resources, Lawrence believed conventional war against Turkey would fail. He advocated “irregular strategy” which would exploit fissures in the enemy’s society.
-British caught a POW named Mohammed al-Faroki who was a member of secret military society called al-Ahd (the Awakening), which was planning to join Emir Hussein in his revolt against Enver Pasha and the Young Turks.
-The McMahon-Hussein Correspondence was one of history’s most controversial exchanges of secret messages. Even the most starry-eyed imperialist would have recognized it was ludicrous for Britain and France to sit around divvying up the post-War Middle East while they were losing the war. Sykes-Picot itself was only known to a handful of government officials.
-Lawrence was sent in to collect intelligence to inform British support for the Arab Revolt. He opposed most British officials in arguing for a small group under the mercurial Hussein. Lawrence lost two brothers in five months, but his reaction was very cold and businesslike—it drew him closer into his emotional shell.
-While large oil companies were chasing offshore reserves, scrappy mid-size “independents” were looking domestically. Grimes v. Goodwin set precedent that landowner owns surface but not minerals underneath. Fracking requires a lot of wells close together. It is noisy and smelly.
-History: Fracking started as early as Civil War, tried various “torpedoes” and chemicals to see what worked best. Hydrafracking spurred by WWII and 1970s crisis. U.S. oil production peaked in late 1970s before long slow decline. 1998 breakthrough: replaced gel with lots of water. Workers came from all over country after 2008 crash via CraigsList ads. Most lack college degrees but average wage is $91,000. “North Dakota should apply for membership to OPEC.” The major shales are Texas, Pennsylvania, and North Dakota (small compared to Russia).
-Technique: Initially fractured with cement, then water, sand to keep the fractures open after the pressure was removed, soap was used to scrub oil off rocks. Now use supercomputers with seismic data to guess where to drill. Also confusing: “80% of engineers still aren’t confident they understand how shale drainage works.”
-Whether you love or fear fracking, it’s here to stay (100 wells dug per day) and renewables are a long way from sustaining our addiction. Created hundreds of thousands of jobs and made US leading oil producer. Some say fracking pollutes water. Probably overhyped, however, it is important to build wells correctly (can cause earthquakes). Are also legitimate concerns about release of methane (even worse than CO2).
-Importance of memory: How we perceive the world and how we act in it are products of how and what we remember. Memory used to be the key measure of intelligence. Today, we are so dependent on external hard-drives (smartphones) we’ve lost our basic abilities (a third of all Brits under 30 can’t remember their home telephone number). We value quantity of reading over quality. Value of rote learning is debated, but memory and intelligence go hand in hand. Learning, memory, and creativity are the same fundamental brain processes, directed with a different focus.
-Most memories gradually decay with time along the “curve of forgetting,” but spacial/visual memories last forever. Somewhere in your mind is a trace of everything you’ve seen. The nonlinear associative nature of our brains make it impossible to consciously search our memories in an orderly way (frustrating). A memory only pops into consciousness if cued by some other thought or perception in the web. Context is crucial: best chess players don’t see individual pieces but “pawn structures”/memorize board every play of every game.
-Vocabulary/Distinctions:
Chunking: a way to decrease the number of items you have to remember by increasing the size of each item.
Declarative: You know you remember (e.g. color of car)
Semantic: Facts and concepts (e.g. first president)
Episodic: From our own lives (e.g. our first kiss) Average first memory is 3.5 years old.
Nondeclarative: Unconsciously remember (e.g. how to ride a bike)
Natural memory: the hardware you’re born with
Artificial memory: the software your run on your hardware (e.g. training)
-The World Memory Championship was founded by Tony Buzan in 1991. Europeans are much better than Americans, although author trained for a year and won the U.S. competition. Crazy characters compete.
One “mental athlete” claimed he could abolish pain with images (imagines pain as an orange thread, cuts it shorter and shorter until it disappears).
Another claims he is expanding subjective time by memorizing more and making it feel like he’s living longer.
One threw a birthday party in a barn where everyone has to crawl through a small tunnel to get in in order to cause a bit of struggle that creates a sense of relief and camaraderie once guests make it inside.
Fun facts:
Although it accounts for 2% of the body’s mass, the brain uses 20% of the oxygen we breathe.
Benjamin Franklin would read essays by great thinkers and try to reconstruct the author’s arguments according to his own logic. He’d then re-compare to the original.
Before the receive accreditation from London’s Public Carriage Office, cabbies must spend 2-4 years memorizing locations/traffic patterns of all 25,000 streets and 1,400 landmarks.
Takeaways:
Listen to less material, more actively
Connect/compare new information to information you already know
Practice creativity (word associations help)
Names: associate sound with something you can imagine (Baker/baker paradox). Imagine spelled out.
Write Down when possible
Sleep more
Nizam al-Mulk argued a government’s ability to administer justice—and especially to hold its highest officials to account—was indispensable to its survival. Even Machiavelli warned against the theft of subjects’ possessions. The English Revolution was against the corruption of King Charles. The Reformation was a reaction to the corruption of the Catholic Church.
BLUF: Corruption (at all levels) leads to popular resentment of government, which becomes a force multiplier for insurgencies. AQ/Taliban crouches at the ready to exploit grievances that go unaddressed. Corruption is not the sole driver of insurgency but is a remarkably underappreciated one.
Chayes: NPR correspondent, Led Karzai’s brother’s NGO, Started Soap Company, Advised CJCS Mullen
Afghanistan:
A well-connected outfit would win a contract to repair a key bridge, then subcontract the job to someone else while shaving profits. After a few iterations of this, there wasn’t enough resources to actually repair the bridge.
Given the U.S. support for the Afghan government, they were perceived as complicit in the corruption. The classic error outsiders make in Afghanistan is to single out a proxy to trust and interact—but the proxies have learned to use the privileged position to enrich themselves. U.S. officials get so distracted by who can get things done they overlook the general citizenry.
Interagency meetings like a picnic; baskets came open and everyone craned for a glimpse of what the others had brought to the table. On corruption, have State INL, British Major Crimes Task Force, FBI and DEA Sensitive Investigations Unit, DoD. Lots of effort, but minimal results.
Ran in political bureaucratic obstacles in trying to meet directly with local elders who would reveal higher level corruption.
Liked McKiernan, not McChrystal. Petraeus supported efforts until discovered key corrupt official was an asset for the CIA and blocked arrest. Karzai’s land-grabbing, vote-stealing, drug-dealing younger brother, among others, was on the Agency payroll.
Intelligence resources were focused on tracking insurgents instead of monitoring election fraud (the prospect of turning off aid or denying a visa to someone was more complex than the prospect of shooting him).
In Afghanistan, the money flows upwards. Karzai was not doling out patronage for loyalty or paying off potential rivals. Everyone purchases their jobs down the line, so the burden falls on the lowest citizens. Afghani government best understood as a series of vertically integrated criminal organizations.
Participated in an Anti-Corruption Task Force, then “Directed Telescopes” group. Developed elaborate strategy against Malign Actor Networks, anticipating blowback. Petraeus approved everything, calling it the “real” FM 3-24, but US officials called off arrest of Salehi allowing Karzai to save face.
Other Case Studies: The Arab Spring also showed militant political religion as the only alternative to corruption. U.S. failed to provide the aid needed to sustain the opportunity for reform in Tunisia. The military makes up 5-40% of the Egyptian economy. Uzbekistan forces adults to pick cotton. Former communist societies associate capitalism with corruption and greed. Nigeria is classic resource curse. Nigerian “godfathers” are former officials who amassed a corrupt fortune in power and sponsor a client to run for office on the expectation of dividends after a successful campaign. Western education is seen as a means of getting into government and thus corruption.
Corrupt governments view honest brokers as a threat and actively seek to eliminate them. Open to treating corruption as a human rights issue. Corruption has countless side effects, from undermining international norms of good governance and threatening financial sector stability. In countries where the military is the most powerful governing institution (Algeria, Egypt, Pakistan), the CJCS—not the SoS—is the lead diplomat.
Policy Recommendations:
Chief of State: Enunciate a government-wide anti-corruption policy.
Intelligence: Devote resources to corruption assessments, align asset informant payments with overarching policy priorities.
Diplomatic: When required to work with corrupt officials, at least avoid glorifying their practices. Diplomats should take greater pains to connect with populations in kleptocratic countries. Use visa denials and special investigations.
USAID: Research how kleptocrats use NGOs. Continue independent monitoring and evaluation.
Military: Integrate corruption into doctrine and training. Use conditionality on provision of military assistance.
Multilateral tools: Reporting requirements should be tightened and enforced.
Rather than an honest broker, the US has become Israel’s lawyer and made achieving peace between Palestinians and Israelis even more difficult.
Three patterns of US Middle East Policy since 1948:
A lack of pressure from the Arab Gulf monarchies
Impact of US domestic politics (the Israel Lobby)
Lack of concern about Palestinian rights
Focuses on three moments of relative clarity in US policy on Palestine which reveal the US was not an honest broker:
Summer 1982: There was an opportunity to put into effect the unimplemented provisions of the 1978 Camp David Accords relating to Palestinian autonomy, but no agreement was reached.
Two years of bilateral negotiations between Israeli and Palestinian delegations in Washington between the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference and 1993 Oslo Accords.
From 2010 to 2012, Netanyahu, Republicans in Congress, and AIPAC forced Obama to retreat from the positions he staked out his first two years in office (e.g. halting settlements, Palestinian statehood).
Sourcing: Two years research–focus groups, interviews, phone tracking, 8 cities; subreddit forum.
BLUF: Finding someone today is probably more complicated and stressful than for previous generations–but you’re also more likely to end up with someone you’re really excited about.
One third of people used to be married to a person within a five block radius. Average age of first marriage has increased from 21 to 29 for men and 20 to 27 for women. Those who marry after 25 are much less likely to divorce. Technology presents new opportunities but our expectations for mates are higher. More choices make decisions harder. It’s impossible to test all your options.
Women are split over call versus texting to ask out but hate bad grammar and the phrase “hang out”. Good to pick time/place in initial ask out to limit scheduling churn. Research shows dates to unique places tend to be more fun and memorable.
Online dating accounts for a third of modern marriages. Should think of it as an introduction service–not dating. Match.com found true preferences rarely match stated ones. 90% is picture.
Tokyo: little desire for sex, men fear rejection (opt for prostitution and variations)
Buenos Aires: casual sex abounds, men are aggressive
Around 25% have at least one extramarital affair in their lifetime. 70% among non married couples. 22% of seniors have tried an open relationship. Passionate love (phase 1) and companionate love (phase 2). Danger point is when passionate drops off, but companionate continues to build in the long term.
Three traditions at play in the Middle East (leaders exploit each to their advantage):
Tribalism (strongest)
Authoritarianism (remnants of Ottomans)
Nationalism (weakest)
Arafat created PLO as umbrella group. Flowed seamlessly between the traveler, the general, the revolutionary, the chairman. Strengths:
Independence (first Palestinian group without Arab state sponsor)
Unity (brought mishmash together)
Relevance (made people dependent on him)
Greatest sense of security is credibility of major retaliation. Assad/Alawites flattened Homs (1982) because the Muslim Brotherhood/Sunnis threatened his credibility.
1982 Lebanon Invasion: Initially viewed Maronites like Zionists, but actually rich, violent, corrupt warlords. Didn’t appreciate complexity of tribalism. Longed for power. Sharon was ruthless but had no strategy. Caused identity crisis for Israelis over who were the good guys.
U.S. sent Marines to oversee safe evacuation of PLO but left early. Gemayel assassination and Sabra and Shatilla forced them back. Aligned themselves with Gemayel but were naive about danger. Left soon after October 1983 bombing.
1967 Six Day War: Israel got drunk on power after 1967. Ongoing pattern of sending settlers out to change facts on the ground, then reaching compromise to allow them to stay. Israel fails to recognize that as a strong and confident country they can compromise with dignity. Types of Israelis: (1) Secular Israelis (2) Religious Zionists (3) Messianic Zionists (4) Ultra orthodox non-Zionist Jews. Ironically, 1967 helped unite Palestinians by bringing the plights of Golan, the West Bank, and Gaza together (no longer associated with separate Arab states).
1987 Intifada: wasn’t about overthrowing Israel govt, but purifying themselves of Israeliness. began as a result of rage over their treatment. Mostly kids throwing stones–calculated because they didn’t want Israeli tanks involved.
“The most important thing the U.S. can bring to the Arab Israeli conflict is optimism.” Solution: Unilateral Israeli withdrawal for a 2SS
Three obstacles to ME peace (1977 deal was able to overcome):
Traditional obsession on both sides with legitimate rights over legitimate interests
Deep-rooted Israeli obsession with stated Arab intentions as opposed to actual Arab capabilities
Israeli mistrust of any kind of land-for-peace agreement with a country that traditionally sought its destruction
Wrote letters to Smithsonian (aviation), National Weather Service (flat windy locations), and seven different automobile companies (engines) asking for help. Smithsonian spent $70,000 on failure. Wright brothers spent under $1,000 on their first successful flyer.
First summer, Orville nearly died of typhoid fever; Wilbur’s boat nearly sank on way to Kitty Hawk. Second summer, weather wouldn’t cooperate and glider didn’t work. Went back to Dayton and worked tirelessly, building their own wind tunnel to study. Third summer, moved rudder to back; great success but needed motor. First successful flight that winter: 12/17/1903, Orville, 12 seconds.
Continued building flyers in farm in Ohio, devised launch catapult. Major reporters ignored. Became public by story in Gleanings in bee culture later given to Scientific American. USG initially uninterested, Wilbur sold to France while Orville demonstrated at Fort Meyer. Until last flight, refused to fly together in case of crash. One bad crash nearly killed Orville. After an epic flight around Manhattan and a homecoming to Dayton, stopped flying and focused on defending legal challenges.
Full account of the event and psychological analysis of the killers.
Lots of kids play video games and sneak out at night, but this pair was vengeful, suicidal, and psychopathic.
Eric: loquacious, narcissistic, lack of empathy. A textbook psychopath, killed to demonstrate superiority and enjoyed it.
Dylan: lonely, craved suicide, only fired pistol three times
Both left extensive records of thought process (journal website videos blogs)
Plan: blow diversionary bomb in park. Blow two huge bombs in the cafeteria, shoot stragglers, blow bombs in parked cars to get police as they arrived. Wanted to kill 2,000, put Timothy McVeigh to shame. None of the bombs went off. Shot for about an hour and committed suicide. Still took SWAT teams three hours to get to teacher Dave Sanders while he bled out–they wouldn’t allow the students to take him with them.
News coverage super extensive. Cameras all over the school and kids were chatty with reporters. Should have stayed away during the crisis, waited for facts. Media myths: trench coat mafia, goths, gays, bullying.
Detective work good (got a warrant within 45 minutes) but police coverup of earlier warrant for suspicion of pipe bombs inexcusable. Jeffco police refused to release report for several years.
-Sayyid Qutb and Arabs were shocked when the US supported Israel in the 1948 War. Qutb was communist but realized the battle wasn’t capitalism-communism but materialism-Islam. When Nasser imprisoned Qutb, he came to the radical conclusion his Muslim jailers had abandoned Islam (takfir).
-Ayman al-Zawahiri and Arabs humiliated by the Six Day War lost faith in leaders and targeted Nasser’s secular regime. Al-Jihad goals were similar to Muslim Brotherhood, but denounced political means. Iranian Revolution 1979 was first successful Islamic take-over. Assassinated modernist Sadat, most thrown in jail, but became factories for militants (Zawahiri met Blink Sheikh Rahman in prison).
-UBL’s father was a legendary builder–famous for impossible tunnel through mountain, renovated three holiest mosques in Islam. UBL contradictions: likes fast cars, American Westerns; dislikes music, drinking. UBL practiced polygamy to “show the people how to do it correctly.” Was perpetually ill throughout his life.
-KSA sudden wealth brought uncomfortable cultural shift–royal family assumed life of luxury. Prince Turki studied at Georgetown with Clinton and became intelligence chief. A 1979 dramatic standoff at the Holy Mosque traumatized all.
-When Soviets invaded Afghanistan, UBL used wealth to sponsor mujahideen. US and KSA funded through ISI, but disorganized: seven leaders (“Dwarves”). UBL avoided combat, remaining in Azzam’s shadow.
-Ideological split on scope of jihad: Zawahiri (Egypt), UBL (world). UBL also split with Azzam’s focus on Palestine and opposition to killing Muslims. 15 brothers voted to create AQ on 9/10/1988, but infighting continued. AQ members received $1000/month.
-Few countries were so different and yet so dependent on each other as US (oil) and KSA (development). In Gulf War, King resisted US troops but gave in after Schwarzkopf military briefing (UBL gave similar briefing weeks after using maps and charts showing how mujahideen could defend KSA). In 1994, UBL lost KSA citizenship–deeply shameful.
-UBL went to Sudan, where he could operate freely since 1989 Islamist coup under Turabi. AQ life was “pleasantly monotonous.” Crossroads of numerous Salafist movements: al-Jihad (Zawahiri), Islamic Group (Rahman), Hamas, Abu Nidal Organization, Hezbollah (Beirut bombing proved value of suicide bombers).
-Rahman and Ramzi Yousef attempted 1995 WTC bombing. Zawahiri sent Ali Abdelsoud Mohammed to penetrate CIA, Army, but when Egyptian intelligence found al-Jihad membership, Zawahiri had to join AQ. Many jihadists fought in 1992 Algerian civil war.
-UBL businesses failed, as did an attempt to execute him. Assassination attempts on Mubarak (al-Jihad) and Zawahiri (Egyptian intel) also failed. US viewed UBL as wealthy nuisance, not threat. “UBL wasn’t a wanted man, but an unwanted man.” Expelled by Turabi in 1996, UBL fled to Afghanistan where Mullah Omar had led Taliban revolution (fed by KSA/Pakistan support, Pakistan madrassas, and opium).
-At the nadir of his career, UBL chose to declare war on the US. Zawahiri was a ghost–traveling to Bulgaria, Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore, Chechnya–but al-Jihad launched 1997 Luxor Attack killed 62. AQ launched 1998 Embassy bombings killed 224. Clinton launched miserable retaliation (Operation Infinite Reach) cruise missiles in Sudan and Afghanistan–hit Sudanese civilian factor, missed UBL, many missiles failed to explode and were sold). UBL emerged as symbol of resistance.
-UBL flattered Mullah Omar to maintain his support. Intermediate AQ-Iraq talks centered on hatred of US. Failed Millennium Plot and USS The Sullivans (precursor to Cole). What AQ recruits tended to have in common–besides urbanity, cosmopolitan backgrounds, education, and computer skills–was displacement. Original KSM “Planes operation” called for 10 planes. Was moved to SE Asia four recruits arrived from Hamburg, Germany which could access U.S. AQ adopted: “centralization of decision; decentralization of execution.” USS Cole attacked October 2000. UBL wanted to provoke intervention, but no retaliation.
-September 11, 2001: Fourth plane was headed for capitol; 2,749 died. UBL fled to Tora Bora. O’Neil turned down Clarke’s job to lead security at WTC. Soufan was in Yemen.
-Chronicles NSC CT coordinator Richard Clarke, FBI NYC CT chief John O’Neil, FBI interrogator Ali Soufan, CIA “Alec Station” chief Mike Sheuer, CIA operative Stephen Gaudin. Critical of CIA for having no sources, not sharing information they did have (even when Soufan asked). FBI missed clues in Phoenix and Minnesota flight schools.
After a while, defectors fear they lose value. A truly skillful liar plants seeds of truth. All spy services worry a case officer may “fall in love” with a source. CURVEBALL didn’t con the spies as much as the spies conned themselves. After failing to connect the dots prior to 9/11, they created dots to fit a narrative in Iraq.
The Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi case went to DIA due to greater resources and poor CIA-BND relations. The U.S. never even saw original transcripts–reports passed through several layers of translation and bureaucracy. Coincidentally, the name CURVEBALL was selected randomly. Despite warnings about the credibility of the source, Bush and Powell used Curveball’s claims in their State of the Union and address to the UN, respectively. They confirmed Curveball’s accounts with information from another burn-notice defector whose file was confused. DO Operatives like Tyler Drumheller suspected the defector was fraudulent and tried to warn Tenet/McLaughlin, but the DI analysts were obsessed that his account was true.
Following the invasion, nobody took ownership of the search for bioweapons. When DoD and DoS declined, Tenet took ownership. After they found two trailers that appeared to be for anthrax, Tenet asked David Kay to lead effort, but the search collapsed from there. The Iraqi seed processing program was real, but Curveball was fired in 1997. He probably visited the Djerf al Nadaf camp, but any additional details were based on UN reports he read online. He told them what they wanted to hear.
Pat Tillman almost lost his scholarship for a felony assault charge from a high school parking lot brawl. He turned down a $9.5 million contract with the Rams for $512,000 because he liked Arizona. He broke down on post 9/11 camera interview about how playing football was of no consequence.
Ran back to provide cover fire for brother’s platoon in narrow ambush. Friends saw an Afghan next to him (he was a friendly) and assumed hands up were signaling. Killed by a SAW gunner. At low levels, there was no doubt it was friendly fire, but they were ordered not to leak. At middle levels, used this doubt to spin. When Bush decided on Silver Star, McChrystal revealed it was friendly fire. Soldiers at funeral were ordered not to reveal fratricide. Report that concluded fratricide was not shared above colonel until forced.
Taliban began as a small unit under Mullah Omar which assaulted corrupt roadblocks near Kandahar after the collapse of the government. Grew into a Robin Hood force for good with some international support until brutally overtook Kabul and implemented sharia law. Tora Bora: perpetual bombing of caves paused when “eastern alliance” sealed short truce and helped UBL escape for $6 million. Battle of Nasiriyah and Jessica Lynch: friction of battle (missed turns, jammed guns, stuck trucks, friendly fire).
Much of the literature on Vietnam argued the “Cold War mentality” made escalation inevitable. In fact, LBJ did not want or plan to go to war, but a series of events pushed the US into the war:
The president’s fixation on short-term political goals (election, Great Society), combined with his insecurity and the personalities of principal advisors, rendered the administration incapable of dealing with the complexities of the situation in Vietnam.
Graduated pressure defined military action as a form of communication, the object of which was to affect the enemy’s calculus and dissuade him from a certain activity. This strategy permitted LBJ to pursue his objective of not losing the war in Vietnam while postponing the “day of reckoning” and keeping the question out of public debate. But McNamara’s models and calculations failed to account for the unpredictability of the enemy.
LBJ made his decisions in Tuesday lunch meetings with Bundy, Rusk, McNamara. The NSC meeting were strictly formalities to build consensus.
The JCS were hampered by inter-service rivalries, exacerbated by Taylor (loyal to Kennedy/Johnson). They failed to confront the president with their objections to McNamara’s approach. Instead, they attempted to work within that strategy to remove limitations to further troop involvement.
Nobody was able to clearly articulate their goals and objectives which shifted from protecting the south to merely maintaining U.S. credibility. JCS and McNamara became fixated on the means rather than the ends. There was a focus on tactical (killing enemies) over strategic (achieving political goals).
Timeline:
November 1963: Assassinations of Ngo Dinh Diem and John F. Kennedy—supporting the coups assumed responsibility for South Vietnamese leadership.
Spring 1964: LBJ adopted graduated pressure as its strategic concept for the Vietnam War (rooted in Maxwell Taylor’s flexible response).
August 1964: Gulf of Tonkin brought US into the war and gave President carte blanche for escalating the war.
February 1965: Began a systematic process of air strikes on North Vietnam and committed U.S troops.
1969-1974: By 1969, Vietnam dominated everything. CIA was at odds with the administration on casualties (Laird: “whose team is the CIA on?”). In the aftermath of the nation’s first military loss in 160 years, détente helped the President avoid national humiliation, maintain a semblance of a responsible defense budget, and lead the Atlantic Alliance in a disciplined approach to Soviet enticements. Competition was intense in the Middle East. Soviet had a huge military buildup 1968-73. On SALT, internal negotiations were nastier than they appeared.
1975-1980: Joined the National Security Staff one month before Nixon resigned. 1975 was also the “worst year in the CIA’s history” (heavy domestic scrutiny left morale low). As Ford and Carter came to power, battles against USSR/Cuban raged in the Third World: Vietnam, Angola, Ethiopia, South Yemen, Rhodesia, Libya, etc. Soviets liked Nixon’s pragmatic/realpolitik approach to problems. Carter was the first President to challenge the legitimacy of Soviet government in the eyes of their own people. The Soviets closed the strategic gap and Carter did cut a lot of defense programs, but he wasn’t weak. 1979 was the high-water mark of the Soviet Empire, and Carter used covert action in Cuba, Grenada, Nicaragua, Iran, and Afghanistan. USSR was acting more assertive with Watergate and economic crisis rocking US, but their economy was not strong. DCI Stansfield Turner got along with analysts but not the DO.
1981-1986: The 1980s saw a new wave of leaders: Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan, Francois Mitterand, Helmut Kohl. CIA disagreed on projected successor to Brezhnev. Reagan transition purged CIA; Gates thought career was over (worked for Kissinger, Brzezinski, Turner—all enemies of incoming staff). Reagan downgraded importance of NSC. DCI Bill Casey was a unique character intent on waging war against the Soviets. First test was Solidarity Movement in Poland—dramatic crisis where Vatican warded off Soviet invasion. Mystery who was really behind papal assassination attempt. Casey was obsessed with Central America (Nicaragua), which divided the country as strongly as Vietnam. Congress forced half measures which were doomed to fail (mining the harbors as “bureaucratic suicide”). 1983 was the most dangerous year; we didn’t realize until later the USSR thought war was imminent. SDI signaled a new era for the arms race. Political dialogue collapsed. Both the CIA and KGB sponsored countless covert activities designed to embarrass the other side and their leaders. There were numerous spies: Walker, Ames, Tolkachev, Yurchenko, Lee Howard, Pollard, etc. SoS George Schultz found himself at strong odds with SoD Weinberger and most others, advocating a more engaging approach to the Soviets. CIA was enthusiastic about Gorbachev, who had ideas but no strategy. He was mostly focused domestically and ramped up international involvement (1985-6) before dialing back (1987-8).
1986-1991: Became Deputy DCI when McMahon retired. Intelligence is pessimistic by nature, as opposed to diplomacy, which looks for opportunities. Gorbachev’s rhetoric was highly reformist but Soviet military modernization continued. Gorbachev faced economic, political, and ethnic challenges and desperately needed improved relations with the West. Tried to play Reagan at Reykjavik to ending SDI, Reagan didn’t balk and walked out. Iran-Contra (p395). Casey likely knew; Gates could have done more to stop Iran involvement. Was acting DCI for five months when Casey died, but withdrew himself. It was easy to say the collapse of communism was inevitable, but nobody knew it would happen so quickly. Over 9 months in 1989, with the exception of Romania, a bloodless revolution (Velvet) swept Eastern Europe. Gorbachev had three blind spots that assured his failure at home and accelerated the collapse of the Soviet Union: (1) that communicast rule could be reformed made more competent (2) that the Soviet economy could be revived while preserving central control (3) that East Europeans and non-Russian nationalities in the USSR would want to remain part of the reformed USSR.
The U.S. won the Cold War by:
Nixon began the process of reaching out the USSR.
Beginning with Ford, the West began to openly attack the legitimacy of Soviet rule at home.
Ford and Carter also pursued economic warfare.
Ford used covert action to challenge the Soviets in the Third World.
All presidents challenged the Soviets in developing military power without interruption.
-Nixon almost fired Rumsfeld for his Vietnam opposition and he never received the roles he wanted (though he was happy to be far away in NATO when Watergate happened). When appointed to lead Office of Equal Opportunities, found a grad student Dick Cheney to help him (they had similar outlooks but opposite traits). While the 1960s were mostly liberal, there was a smaller conservative movement which introduced Paul Wolfowitz to Leo Strauss which called to overthrow of tyrants and focus on deception in intelligence analysis. He specialized in nuclear weapons and the Persian Gulf. Rich Armitage and Colin Powell both served in Vietnam, but had different experiences (Navy/Army, volunteered/deployed, personal/professional). For all vulcans, Vietnam emphasized the importance of reasserting U.S. power. Ford’s fall 1975 cabinet shakeup shifted power drastically away from Kissinger and towards Rumsfeld/Cheney, who adapted better to post-Vietnam.
-Surprisingly, many necons continued to work under Carter. But they found his policy of detente and approach towards Communist governments/dictatorships frustrating. In 1979, they abandoned the Democratic Party. Ford was almost Reagan’s running mate, but couldn’t agree on enough. Called H. W. Bush as the first cell phone number they had.
-Powell was influenced by Caspar Weinberger, who announced what later became known as the Powell Doctrine (initially opposed by Powell). Armitage became heavily involved in the Reagan Doctrine of supporting rebellions against any regime supported by the USSR. Rumsfeld worked his way back into the government as Middle East envoy through his relationship with SoS Schultz and shook hands with Saddam in 1983. Wolfowitz and Armitage were in the middle of the controversial decision to encourage Philippine President Marcos to give up power in 1986. Cheney and Rumsfeld were principal figures in a highly classified program to establish a new American “president” and staff outside of the Constitution in case of nuclear war with USSR.
-Rumsfeld tried to run for President in 1988 by challenging Bush from the right, but failed to raise much money or set himself apart from the other candidates. The Reagan-Bush transition is often described as hawks-to-doves, but Reagan’s last two years were quite dovish and Cheney was a hawk Secretary of Defense. Rice was always an insider, with a lot of help from Scowcroft, who helped her dictate Bush Sr’s Russia policy. Armitage was asked to be Secretary of the Army, but was blocked by Ross Perot, and received little help from Cheney. Besides being young and black, Powell was the first Chairman of the Joint Chiefs who had already held a cabinet-level post.
-The invasion of Panama was the first Cold War operation–meant not to fight communism but replace an abhorrent dictator with a democracy. Powell readily supported this easily winnable intervention, but opposed the Gulf War (and later the Balkans). It was pushed by Scowcroft and Cheney, who were heavily involved in military planning. Nobody in the administration wanted to push all the way to Baghdad, but Wolfowitz did want to fight longer. Powell emerged from Desert Storm a hero, and Cheney and Wolfowitz learned they needed to keep a tight leash on military generals.
-Bush announced a new world order with the US as the leader, willing to use military power to prevent aggression and preserve balance of power. The new Pentagon strategy fell to Wolfowitz who wrote collective security/alliances (e.g. UN, NATO) was no longer the heart of US thinking. The vulcans fought the idea of a “peace dividend,” which would redistribute defense funds to other programs. While Clinton accused the Republicans of unilateralism, Clinton too gave far less weight of principles of collective security. Powell was courted by both parties as a Presidential candidate, but concluded the “calling was not there.” The vulcans were largely in exile. Wolfowitz had long been focused on Iraq, and his ideas began to harden in 1997, when he concluded engagement or containment wouldn’t work. A group of right-wing leaders called Congressional Policy Advisory Board began meeting to fine-tune their policy. Rice bonded with Bush Jr. (weak on foreign policy) over sports and was his primary advisor throughout the campaign. The close election made him choose his team quickly: Powell was obvious for State, Rumsfeld was supposed to be DCI, but needed Defense (original plan was politician+Armitage as deputy, but worried about Powell’s influence). Armitage and Wolfowitz wanted each other’s jobs–drew battle lines between DoS and DoD. Cheney led committee to pick himself as VP.
-When Bush came to power, he focused on missile defense, Taiwan, Russia and the axis of evil. After 9/11, the vulcans adopted the “with us or against us” mindset, believing “history starts today.” Rumsfeld worked to establish his dominance at the Pentagon. Over a period of less than five months, the administration had shifted GWOT from: retaliating against 9/11 attackers to stopping terrorists from WMDs to preventing states from supplying WMDs. In a matter of months, the administration abandoned the ABM Treaty, moved away from deterrence, recast America’s doctrines on nuclear weapons, and turned the war on terror against WMDs. Bush also gave a speech espousing pre-emptive strikes. Scowcroft presciently warned an unnecessary invasion of Iraq could lead to quagmire, but his mentee Rice disagreed. Powell wasn’t opposed to intervention, but was concerned over when and how–he convinced Bush to go to the UN, which seemed like a win but actually forced him to harden his views to sell the invasion. Powell was never the dove he was sold as, but forced Tenet to sit behind him at UN. Rice managed to stay out of the crosshair. Armitage was the true American warrior but underutilized. Cheney used his extensive network to wield tremendous influence.
Beliefs of the self-described “Vulcans”:
Centrality and efficacy of American military power
Belief in America as a force for good around the globe
Optimistic assessment of American capabilities
Reluctance to enter agreements with other countries
Origins: Christian Crusades took control of Palestine in 1099, but Muslims controlled it from 1291 until 1918. WWI gave Britain control of Iraq, Palestine, and Jordan; French controlled Syria and Lebanon. Britain issued Balfour Declaration in 1917. In 1947, the UN partitioned Palestine between Jews and Arabs, with Jerusalem and Bethlehem as international areas. All the Arab states attacked but Israel actually gained territory–creating the 1947 borders or “Green Line.” 710,000 Arabs were forced out of Israel.
PLO established in 1964, dedicated to liberating the homeland. The US refused to recognize it until the Arabs adopted UN Resolution 242 acknowledging Israel’s peaceful right to exist.
Late 20th Century: In 1967, with Egypt escalating tensions, Israel launched a surprise attack (Six Day War), taking Sinai, Golan Heights, Gaza, and much of the West Bank. In 1973, Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack (Yom Kippur War). In 1978, Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat signed the Camp David Peace Accords, which created framework for Israel-Egypt peace but did little to solve Palestine. Anwar Sadat was assassinated in 1981 and Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 in response to a terrorist attack. The first intifada (Palestinian uprising and harsh Israeli response) took place from 1987 until the Oslo Accords in 1993, in which each side recognized each other’s right to exist.
21st Century: The Second Intifada took place from 2000 to 2005, initiated when Ariel Sharon visited Temple Mount. Sharon withdrew Israeli settlements from the Gaza Strip in 2005, although this led to the temporary isolation of Gaza residents. Since the 2003 Road Map for Peace, the outline for peace has been a two-state solution, although some would prefer 1SS if that’s the only way to keep Jerusalem. The West Bank is under Fatah while Gaza is under Hamas. Palestinians have poor living conditions and are heavily dependent on the International Quartet (UN, US, EU, Russia) to represent their interests. Israel has an identity crisis of its own, split between those who want an Orthodox Jewish state and the more pragmatic secular side.
Most significant political trend since WWII was the liberalization of the 1960s and the conservative backlash/reaction to it. Now tougher to find middle ground, but we should focus on shared values.
Lived like a bachelor near Georgetown Law School. Set up offices in Chicago and Washington; 39 townhalls the first year, arranging to meet other Congressmen. Flew back at least once a week. Faced richer opponents but fortunately they didn’t use campaign ads. People like their Congressmember but hate Congress. 90% of voting is name recognition. Gerrymandering: “Voters don’t pick politicians; politicians pick voters.” First met Bush after his election to Congress; the president was friendly and pulled him aside to tell him he would go far. Helped by exotic background and ability to speak in a way the highly educated can relate to.
Seeking theory to guide public administration. Review of political science topics: organizational theory/culture, institutions, principal-agent theory/delegated discretion, monitoring and accountability, norm development, etc. Public sector institutions are not exposed to the ruthless Darwinian environment that exists in the private sector.
The primary obstacle to state-building is a lack of local demand for stronger institutions. There is no theory to dictate how much delegation is appropriate for any given society. Sovereignty is eroding, but we need to avoid the temptation to build institutions ourselves but rather support other countries to create their own.
Germany and Japan were not true cases of nation-building because they already had strong and efficient bureaucracies during the war. Afghanistan is a much bigger challenge than Iraq because it has no history of a strong or efficient government.
Initial reaction to 9/11 was a Joint Congressional Inquiry,; Commission was a more holistic review. Budget started at $3 million, jumped to $11 million. Chairs were originally supposed to be Kissinger and George Mitchell, but had conflict of interest with private consulting/law firms. Kean knew New Jersey (former Governor), Hamilton knew DC (long-time Congressman). Contentious issues:
Whether to use subpoenas: wanted to keep strong relations with White House, chose to go public
Extension/timing of report release v. 2004 Presidential election
Frustrations included classification of documents and access to detainees (The possible 20th hijacker was sent back to Saudi Arabia after questioning in the airport). “the Washington read, or checking for your name in the index”
Family Steering Committee had conference call with commission before each hearing. Media latched on to the finding of no connection between Al Qaeda and Iraq.
Secretary of State is the (1) Chief diplomat, (2) President’s primary foreign policy advisor, and (3) CEO of sprawling Department. Need better balance between: defense, diplomacy, and development
Three types of world leaders: natural partners who share our worldview, those who want right thing but lack political will/capacity, those whose values are fundamentally at odds and will always oppose us.
Russia: Reset went well under Medvedev, but fell apart under Putin (obsessed with history and seeking to bring Russia back to dominance)
Latin America: Blocked Cuba from OAS for human rights abuses
Africa: In Botswana, broke resource curse trend by using diamond rush to fund schools. Sent SOF/drones after Kony in Sudan (south has the oil but the north has refineries).
Libya was a bumpy road with NATO allies scuffling but also the paragon of a successful multilateral intervention. Informal belief the old colonial power should be first to intervene (e.g. France in Mail). Benghazi: Innocence of Muslims video probably did play role in Benghazi attack; Rice talking points came from CIA. CIA outpost saved everyone but Stevens and a DS Officer.
Middle East: Palestine: Arafat had circumstances for peace but not will. Abbas had will but not circumstances. In Egypt, worked with Mubarak but withdrew support when didn’t meet our demands (pro-US feelings quickly faded). Jordan imports 80% of its energy. Yemen remains mismanaged and heavily armed. Qatar reacted to the Arab spring by bankrolling Islamists across the region to portray itself as a champion of revolutions and distract from domestic problems.
Syria: First US ambassador arrived months before Arab spring broke out. Russia’s ties to Syria center around a port on the Mediterranean and Orthodox Church. Syria: two attempts at diplomacy based in Geneva have been blocked from meaningful progress by Russia
Iran Deal (Foundation): Hardest to bring on board for sanctions were Asian countries which get most oil from Iran (China India, Korea, Japan). All talks were via secret Oman channel until Rouhani won and Kerry met Iranian foreign minister.
Afghanistan too preoccupied with Pakistan, which is too preoccupied with India. As a champion of the Non-Aligned movement, India hates to be told what to do.
Long relationship with Holbrooke until his death, convinced Obama not to fire him. “Never negotiate out of fear but never fear to negotiate.” The devil is always in the details. UBL Raid: the helicopter crashed because in practice runs the fence was chain link rather than concrete (affecting air currents). US leads social media boot camps around the world to help internet activists.
The incredible story of Louis Zamperini. Mischievous child who was bullied for being Italian growing up and constantly stealing things. Older brother Pete helped him focus on running and he overcame being boxed in by other runners to qualify for the 1936 Olympics in Berlin. Was poised to run the fastest mile in the 1940 Olympics but was drafted into the Army Air Corps. Flew several combat missions in the Pacific as bomb sight. Damaged B-24 crashed on a rescue mission. Spent 40 days (record at time) drifting 2,000 miles while battling starvation, sharks, and Japanese strafing. Spent the remainder of the war being brutalized in several Japanese POW camps. Returned a celebrity, but suffered severe PTSD and became alcoholic. Heard Billy Graham, became devout Christian, and forgave prison guards.
-Kissinger’s senior thesis at Harvard remains a legend: 383 pages on “the meaning of history.” On academia: “The disputes are so bitter because the stakes are so small.” When a student brought him a paper, he asked “Is this the best you can do?” several times until the student said yes, to which he replied, “Ok I guess I’ll read it this time.” Reporter: “What do you consider your greatest success and failure?” Kissinger: “I don’t quite understand your second point.”
-Kissinger’s realpolitik believed diplomacy could not be divorced from realities of force and power, but should be from moralism and internal policies of other nations. He approached each problem by first asking the desired long-term outcome.
-Kissinger and Nixon shared a paranoia and interest in foreign policy that created the largest and most centralized NSC. The national security bureaucracy was sapped of confidence and creativity, and back channel negotiations had successes (SALT, China, Treaty of Paris). The pair only clashed over credit for successes. Though he retained his job as ANSA in the second term, many responsibilities fell to Brent Scowcroft. A leak about bombing Cambodia led to wiretapping of 17 senior national security officials; Kissinger defended saying necessary to prove loyalty. This program ultimately led to the Plumbers. The release of the Pentagon Papers was not nearly as harmful as the Nixonian reaction which followed–the Plumbers’ first mission was to break into the office of Ellsberg’s psychiatrist. Kissinger avoided the all-encompassing Watergate scandal by staying out of the country and coming clean in a four-hour press conference. Kissinger felt more relaxed around Ford.
-Reluctantly supported Nixon’s Vietnamization, though he knew it was doomed to fail. The decision to invade Cambodia would turn into the greatest victory for Hanoi since they lost the Tet Offensive. It was an unprecedented expansion of the war and doomed Cambodia’s future. As peace talks continued, Kissinger made the fateful soundbite “We believe that peace is at hand” far too soon which undermined the US bargaining position. A series of pessimistic cables led to another massive Christmas bombing in 1973, but it was not worth the high cost in lives, military expense, reputation, and public support.
-Kissinger’s negotiating strategy involved making bold steps rather than countless piecemeal concessions. Three phases of a weapons program can be banned: testing, production, deployment. US wanted to ban testing and deployment, which could be verified by satellites. Kissinger made too sweet an initial deal and the Russians jumped to accept. Less than three years after the Moscow summit, detente was collapsing as Congress sought a tougher stance on Russia.
-The opening to China was probably the most significant and prudent American foreign policy initiative since the Marshall Plan, pitting the US as kingmaker of China and Russia and overshadowing Vietnam. Kissinger mishandled the Pakistan-India War, siding with Pakistan even though they were brutally repressive and unpopular with Congress/public. Egypt and Syria’s surprise attack on Israel October 1973 led Kissinger to provide Israel with more weapons than DoD wanted. But he tried to time the ceasefire so the Egyptians were not humiliated. Negotiating territorial lines led to two years of “Shuttle Diplomacy” which included eleven visits to the Middle East. Ultimately he achieved military disengagement and Israeli withdrawals.
-Developed self-deprecating humor as an antidote to the resentment his arrogance provoked. Dominated the Georgetown social scene, dating countless Hollywood stars. After leaving office, his continued celebrity came from his loud personality and brilliant mind. He spent his first four years, writing two memoirs, but abandoned his third to start Kissinger Associates, write a column, appear on talk shows, and chair a Commission on Central America.
Decision-making depends on two systems:
System I operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control.
System II allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations. (p111)
Our attention is finite and forcing self-control is impractical/tiring. Heuristics:
Causation: Our minds naturally look for causality when statistical reasoning is more accurate (we always look for an base/anchor rate). We see patterns in randomness.
Outcome: When an unpredicted event occurs, we immediately adjust our view of the world to accommodate the surprise. We blame decision-makers for good decisions which turned out badly and vice versa. Our impression of well-being is disproportionately influenced by how it ends; luck plays a large role in every success story.
Bias to Believe: To evaluate a claim, we have to imagine it as true and are thus biased to confirm it. For the same reason, it is much easier to recognize other people’s mistakes than our own.
Availability: People assess the relative importance of issues based on the ease they are retrieved from memory (e.g. people think celebrities have more divorces because they receive more media coverage).
Optimism: We are incapable of planning for the “unknown unknowns.” 90% of drivers believe they are better than average.
Halo Effect: Our minds like to categorize (e.g. if you like the President’s policies, you probably like his appearance as well).
Substituting: Substituting one question for a more complex one can be a good strategy, but is overused.
Regression to the Mean: Statistics doom superstars with great years to underperform the next year.
We are risk averse when there is a high probability of gains or low probability of losses. We are risk tolerant with a low probability of gains or high probability of losses (p329).
Rewards for improved performance work better than punishment of mistakes. But, we are more motivated to avoid bad outcomes than to achieve good ones.
-Edgar Hoover born 1895, a few blocks from the US Capitol. With older brother, started a weekly newspaper at 11 years old which he sold for one cent. Excelled in debate and cadet corps at a top DC HS. First job was at LoC, while he took night classes at GW law school. Became a clerk and attorney in the Justice Department as WWI began and was given authority to intern German aliens for the duration of the war. Set him up for DOJ’s war on radicals following 1919 Palmer bombing; elevated to number two in the Bureau of Investigation. He quickly expanded his legal authority by arresting over 600 associated with the Russian Workers Party and took down ‘Queen of the Reds’ Emma Goldman. In 1920, became overzealous in raids on communist party members and learned to be more cautious and hide behind a political figure (Palmer). Hoover spent 3 years as assistant director in a corrupt Harding Administration before promotion to director in 1924. He was a new breed of director, not a detective but a progressive bureaucrat who used science to solve crime. Emphasized education by creating training in DC (now Quantico) and standards through field inspections. The rise of Public Enemies in the early 1930s (and subsequent Hollywood craze) rose the FBI to national prominence as the G-Men and Hoover’s ability to exploit the media made him a national hero (he released a magazine, TV show, and comic strip and made several arrests personally). Roosevelt approved the investigation of fascists and communists, a directive Hoover used as his authority for over 40 years. FBI owned Western Hemisphere WWII intelligence but establishment of the OSS was a major bureaucratic loss for Hoover (he sabotaged an OSS mission to get code books from the Japanese embassy by sending in the FBI with sirens blaring). Hoover believed Truman’s loyalty program for federal employees did not go far enough. The FBI’s two Cold War successes came in the Alger Hiss and Rosenbergs (Hoover did not want to execute Ethel, but indicted her to pressure incriminations of others). Hoover was reluctant to address civil rights (did not investigation Emmett Till) and organized crime but remained focused on dissolution of the Communist Party through COINTELPRO. JFK forced to keep Hoover for political reasons, but did not get along. The Warren Report revealed that the FBI bungled its handling of Lee Harvey Oswald, a suspected Communist. Hoover had expected to retire in 1965 (age 70), but his friend LBJ asked him to stay. Throughout the 1960s, Hoover waged a public war on hate crime and the new left (anti-Vietnam) and a private war on black radicalism. At LBJ’s insistence, Hoover opened an office in MIssissippi and began to tackle KKK hate crime but his decision to go public against MLK ruined his previously unassailable public image. The lines between good and evil were no longer clear and Hoover no longer had the political support he could once rely on. Nixon and Hoover were old friends dating back to the Hiss case (1958) but his administration had little respect for the 74 year old director. In 1971, someone burglarized the FBI field office and COINTELPRO went public. As Hoover backtracked, Nixon was frustrated with its passiveness on the Pentagon Papers case and created the plumbers to do his dirty work instead. Died 1972.
Ideologically driven by a perception of decline in American values. Circumstances made him the government’s first authority on communism, a position he jealously guarded the rest of his life. Communism changed, but Hoover’s opinion of it never did. He masterfully oversaw all components of an operation from legal to administrative to PR. The Dillinger case taught him how to take personal credit for the successes and focus attention on scientific law enforcement over a lucky tip. Hoover demanded loyalty until the end; when he lost favor he sabotaged future careers (e.g. Melvin Purvis). Hoover’s insistence on absolute loyalty forced agents to abandon true beliefs to prove their allegiance (e.g. William Sullivan on MLK’s Communist connections).
Hoover never left the US except for one trip to the Caribbean. FBI analysis was limited by Hoover’s intolerance for intellectual independence in subordinates. Hoover viewed civil rights as a challenge to authority that alarmed his conservative views. Hoover rose to prominence by responding skillfully to an increasingly unified national consciousness. But as he grew older, instead of capitalizing on new challenges, he sought to protect his power by working through existing power structures.
Bush Administration: Turned down DNI job in 2004; joined Iraq Study Group in 2006 (recommended more troops). When Bush announced surge (Jan 2007) all hell broke loose, but Bush never looked back or had second thoughts about the decision to invade. Gates put effort into buying more time in Washington and speeding up progress in Baghdad. Pushed for stronger civilian effort (non-voluntary assignments). Gates received warm welcome at Pentagon due to distaste for Rumsfeld (“sucking up to the new guy by trashing the predecessor”). Bush team shared a sense of having let the country down on 9/11 and expected the worst. Cheney’s broad assertion of executive power was a response to powers lost in the Ford Administration. Sought to end involuntary extensions of deployments by extending tours to 15 months. Learned about mine-resistant, ambush-protected (MRAP) vehicles from a newspaper article, bought 27,000 as the “Soldier’s Secretary” (casualties dropped 75%). Lack of enthusiasm for ISR (drones) in Afghanistan, as Air Force wanted F-22s. Problems (p154): toxic mix of flawed assumptions about the wars, risk-averse bureaucracy, budgetary decisions made in isolation from the battlefield, gotcha political climate which reinforced bureaucratic timidness. Believed NATO expansion was a needless provocation of Russia. Battles of missile defense in Poland/Czech Republic went nowhere. In Spring 2007, received compelling evidence North Korea had a nuclear reactor in Syria; had to talk Cheney out of attacking. Israelis destroyed it and kept on it downlow to reduce pressure on Assad to reciprocate. Iran-Contra taught Gates to be cautious with Iran, had to make a personal plea to the President against attacking. Tension with Karzai over civilian casualties, private security contractors, dogs on patrols, night raids. USAF mishandled nuclear weapons which led to firing of the Secretary of the Air Force. Wanted to close the “almost luxurious” Guantanamo for its bad press. Fired Fran Harvey for not taking the problems at Walter Reed hospital seriously enough (failure of leadership and bureaucracy). Defense and VA bureaucracies were utterly unprepared for the numbers of veterans. Standards for Medal of Honor raised too high following Vietnam (Bush did not award any to living soldiers). Assumed would be leaving with Bush so established a transition group.
Obama Administration: Obama staffed himself with smart, hardworking, passionately loyal advisors with no firsthand knowledge of real-world governing. “Never doubted Obama’s support for the troops, only his support for their mission.” Pushed to get Afghanistan medevac time below one hour and MRAP-ATVs to save troops. Killed funding for F-22 and YAL-1. Distracted by having to return US stragglers from North Korea and Iran. Supported elimination of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell (for compromising soldier’s integrity), but cautioned it must be done through Congress and implemented slowly. Obama was the fourth president to seek elimination of all nuclear weapons. Opposed Obama’s sending McDonough to Haiti during disaster as staffers should not be involved in operational matters (lesson of Iran Contra). WikiLeaks releases were more than just embarrassing, they compromised many operational sources. Manning revealed security compliance diminished in lower ranks closer to war. McChrystal had better relations with Karzai than any other official, but Rolling Stones article and refusal to defend himself sealed his fate (and gave Obama an opportunity to assert his control of the military). Opposed action in Libya as it was not a vital national interest, but the UNSC resolution sealed Obama’s decision. First SecDef to visit Palestine. For replacements, recommended Clinton, Powell, Panetta, and Michael Bloomberg. Opposed the UBL raid (supported drone option) with intelligence estimates ranging from 40-80% until Flournoy convinced him morning of.
Washington/Leadership: Congressman criticized Iraqi legislators but couldn’t pass their own budget. In the privacy of their offices, Congressmen were cool and reflective, but put on a show for the cameras. Seattle Congressman had Boeing letterhead on her talking points. “Facts and logic play no part in debates on the Hill when jobs at home are at stake.” “In Washington, perception is reality.”
Comments on leadership upon becoming SecDef:
No personnel changes: last thing we need in two wars is inexperience
Expect candor and involvement in decisionmaking
Don’t need consensus, but once a decision is made we stand together.
Prefer conversation to death-by-Powerpoint
Priorities: Iraq, Afghanistan, GWOT, and “transformation”
“The Department of Defense is structured to plan and prepare for war but not to fight one” (focus on weapons acquisition and long-term budgets). Used high-level reviews to buy time for important decisions (“better a tactical delay than a strategic mistake”). The DNI holds some authorities, but must persuade others to go along. Gates had a strategy for every NSC meeting and always wrote out points in advance. After making a tough or controversial decision, important to meet face-to-face with those most affected. Bigger meetings meant more leaks. Dislikes special envoys (e.g. Afghanistan, Pakistan)–working outside official channels created bureaucratic conflict over who speaks for the president. Ideally, there should be a way to delegate day-to-day matters to lower levels of responsibility so president and senior advisors can focus on big picture strategy, but that’s not how it works and exhausted people don’t always make best decisions. The best way to impart change to a large organization is from the bottom up.
Other: Lived next to Mike Mullen in Navy Compound; Mullen had military aids do housework so Gates threw tree branches on his yard. In 4.5 years, traveled to 109 countries, spent 35 work weeks on the plane, and personally ate sixteen pounds of brisket. Schedule: woke up at 5am, ran two miles around the national mall, went to work, came home, wrote condolence letters, poured stiff drink, ate dinner, read something unrelated to work, went to bed. Pain meds for a broken shoulder caused Gates to fall asleep in a meeting with the Australian PM. Harry Reid called to ask position on abortion for consideration as VP candidate. Had a clandestine interview with Obama in an empty firehouse before being asked to stay on for a year. Never attended inauguration. Statecraft is stagecraft, but gimmicks in foreign policy generally backfire. Dined with enlisted troops in Iraq; visited Army Rangers in the middle of training and made them eat Snickers in front of him because once he left the instructors would take it away.
Washington’s unyielding relationship with Jerusalem undermines America’s standing with important allies and damages CT efforts. There is a moral case for the creation of Israel, but its brutal treatment of Palestinians in occupied territories means the US should at least treat them equally. At least 250 members in the current House can be counted on to do exactly as AIPAC wants. The lobby has dictated almost every US policy in the Middle East for the past two decades.
Jobs’ perfectionism, demons, desires, artistry, and obsession for control were integrally connected to his approach to business and the products that resulted. His intensity created a binary view of the world (“hero/shithead dichotomy”). His quest for perfection ensured Apple had end-to-end control of every product, a strategy not always popular but successful. His intensity and love of simplicity/Zen gave him incredible focus. He didn’t invent many things outright, but he was a master at putting together ideas, art, and technology in ways that invented the future.
The federal government spends $10 billion a year to keep secrets secret. Obama had his voice scanned, retinas scanned, blood drawn, and DNA catalogued the morning of his first inauguration. So many IC agencies were losing employees to private contractors that CIA Director Hayden prohibited former employees from working with CIA for 12 months. DHS has as many contractors as employees. Two-thirds of CIA analysts have less than five years experience. Two-thirds of FBI analyst positions didn’t exist before 9/11. The phrase “Special Programs” is a giveaway for top secret activities. There are over 1,000 federal government organizations and nearly 2,000 private companies working at a Top Secret level on programs related to counterterrorism, homeland security, and intelligence. NORTHCOM has real-time tracking of thousands of aircraft, ships, computer virus alerts, satellite orbits, whereabouts of top officials, and military forces. DHS does not know how much it spends each year on state fusion centers. PATRIOT Act broke down the “wall” that existed since COINTELPRO. Lie detectors don’t work very well in foreign cultures, where the setup becomes too intimidating. Financial circumstances account for 50% of the reason clearances are denied. Another 25% were for lying on questions. The last is for alcohol consumption, gambling, chronic drug use, etc. Since 9/11, the US drone arsenal has grown from 60 to more than 6,000. JSOC (Delta Force, SEALS team 6, etc.) has grown from 1,800 pre-9/11 to around 25,000 today.
Keep sentences short and one main idea per sentence.
Avoid pretensions, gobbledygook, and euphemisms (don’t try to sound smart)
Be wary of jargon, fad, and cliche (avoid buzzwords like functionality, utilization)
Avoid beginning sentences with long dependent phrases (get to the point)
Use active verbs in active voice (avoid “to be”)
Avoid vague qualifiers (very, extremely, totally, entirely, really)
Prune prepositions
Limit number and symbol (don’t use more than three numbers in one sentence)
Write fast, edit slow. You should be able to summarize the point of your writing in one sentence. Can occasionally break rules about splitting infinitives, ending sentences with prepositions, starting sentences with and or but, or using the Oxford comma.
The term bullpen partially derives from the fact that there was often a Bull Durham Tobacco sign in the outfield where the pitchers warmed up. (22)
Wee Willie Keeler: “Keep your eye clear and hit ’em where they ain’t.” (23)
John Anderson became forever notorious in 1904 for trying to steal second base with the bases loaded. (34)
In 1904, Jack Chesbro had 41 victories in 51 starts, tossing 48 complete games and 455 innings and posting a 1.82 ERA. (35)
As Sunday baseball was prohibited, in 1909, the Highlanders played a silent exhibition in Jersey City in which club owners handed out notices to funs not to cheer, so as to not arouse suspicion among the local police. (41)
After being suspended indefinitely, Kid Elberfeld managed the first game of a doubleheader against Washington while sitting in a box next to the dugout. (48)
While the spitball was declared illegal in 1920, it remained legal for 20 or so pitchers whose careers were defined by it. (51)
After school, kids would stand on the Ft. Washington Avenue side of the Highlanders’ park and wait for ball to be knocked over-then you took the ball to the man at the little door and he would let you into the game. (57)
After being traded to the Indians, Ray Caldwell was pitching with a lead with two outs in the ninth when he was struck by lightning and went unconscious. Despite a scare, when he regained consciousness, he insisted on finishing and recorded the final out. (82)
In 1917, the Yankees did their patriotic part by performing marching drills, bats on shoulders as through rifles for a pre-game exercise. (84)
On September 28, 1919, the Yankees beat the Athletics 6-1 in just 51 minutes. (93)
Babe Ruth signed more baseballs than anyone in the game; it was said that there is nothing as rare as a ball not signed by Ruth. He was also the only player in the game who wound the handle of his bat with tape for
a better grip. On the way to one game, Babe crashed his car and rolled over twice, but miraculously there were no injuries. (95-110)
The first World Series home run in Yankee Stadium was an inside the park job hit by none other than Casey Stengel. The slow runner even lost his shoe as he rounded second. (137)
Ruth sent a ball to eleven-year-old Johnny Sylvester, hospitalized with osteomyelitis. Babe slammed three home runs, and Sylvester miraculously seemed to return to health while listening to the game on the radio. (147)
1927 was the first time the Yankee team was awarded World Series rings. The 1923 champs had received pocket watches.
On September 24, 1933, the Giants, Yankees and Dodgers played a double header at the Polo Ground to aid the unemployed. Between games featured running/throwing relay races and fungo-hitting contests. (173)
It remains a lively debate as to whether Babe’s called shot was actually called or whether he was just reminding the Cubs’ bench that he still had one strike remaining. (178)
When he retired, Ruth held 34 Major League or American League records and 26 World Series records. (184)
Joe Di-mahj-e-o was originally Joe Di-madge-e-o. (189)
Under the management Joe McCarthy, the Yankees took on a businesslike persona in which they dressed right, arrived on tiP1e, played the game right, and looked sharp. (190)
The practice of letting fans onto Yankee Stadium’s field after the game ended in 1966, when some aggressive fans headed straight for Mickey Mantle. (192)
After the 1939 season, to the calls of “Break Up the Yankees!” Washington owner Clark Griffith proposed a piece of legislation that no rival American League team be permitted to trade or sell anyone to the Yankees. They were just too good. (215)
Dom DiMaggio: “The difference between the Yankees and the Red Sox was that the Yankees were always run as a business … The Rest Sox were a hobby.” (224)
Lefty Gomez: “The secret to my success is clean living a fast outfield.” “I’d rather be lucky than good.” (227)
During the war years, air-raid wardens were always present to be prepared in the event of an attack. (228)
On June 26, 1944, the Polo Grounds hosted a Yankees v. Giants v. Dodgers exhibition game. (234)
Yankee owner Larry McPhail had served in WWI and hatched an ambitious plan to kidnap the Kaiser shortly after the war’s conclusion. He and a friend reached the Kaiser’s chateau in Holland under the pretense of needing to see him. When it became evident, they were never going to see him, they decided to make a run for it but swiped an ashtray to prove they had been there. (236-37) McPhail renumbered the seating sections, instituted Old-Timers Day, and commissioned a new Yankee logo with the script Yankees and Uncle Sam hat. He also added promotions such as giving away five hundred pairs of nylon stockings on the first Lady’s Day of the season and hiring barbershop quartets to serenade the fans. (245-49)
His exit from baseball came quite suddenly when he punched a pair of reporters at a season-end banquet. (264-66)
Larry Berra earned the name Yogi because he had a habit of sitting in a yoga position on the ground while his team was at bat. (257) He was the first to put his index finger outside of his catcher’s mitt for extra protection. (259)
After his death in 1948, Ruth’s body was displayed near Gate 4 for two days and two nights for the fans to see him one last time. (27I)
The I 949 team suffered 71 injuries. (275)
In I 950, owners were vehemently against televising games, as they feared it would cut attendance. (282)
Whitey Ford was the only 20th Century pitcher under six feet to go to the Hall of Fame. (284)
Yankee scout Tom Greenwade went to Mr. Mantle after a game and said: “I’m afraid Mickey may never reach the Yankees. Right now, I’d have to rate him a lousy shortstop and he’s small. However I’m willing to take a risk and give him $400 to play at independence the rest of the summer. … Tell you what, I’ll even throw in an $ I 100 bonus.” (287)
Derek Jeter has chosen to use Bob Sheppard’s introduction of him for the rest of his career. (290)
In I 954, the Yankees completed the biggest trade in baseball history, with 17 players changing teams. (306)
Phil Rizzuto developed an endearing style with fans by writing WW for “wasn’t watching,” and calling opposing players huckleberries. (313)
Do~ Larsen was no superstar before his perfect game in the 1956 World Series; in fact Stengel didn’t decide he would start him until two hours before gametime. (314)
On day, when Billy Martin was scared he would be traded, he decided to sit in the bullpen instead of the dugout. He still got traded away after the game. (320)
1958 closer Ryne Duren was famous for scaling the low right-field bullpen fence, glancing at the scoreboard to check the situation, tossing the warm-up jacket to a waiting batboy, kicking the dirt of his spikes, and firing the first warm-up into the backstop to frighten a waiting batter. (323)
When called to testify in Washington, Stengel was asked his views on the antitrust legislation. To everyone’s amusement and nobody’s understanding, Casey went on for 45 minutes and seven thousand words, most of it drowned out with laughter. When Mantle followed, he simply stated, “My views are just about the same as Casey’s.” (325)
From 1959-1963, they experimented with having two All-Star Games, but it was a flop. (331)
In 1960, Bobby Richardson became the only losing player to win a World Series MVP because the vote was taken before the game ended. (333)
On July 26, 1961, Commissioner Ford Frick announced that announced that Ruth’s single season home run record could only be beaten within the first 154 games of the season. This unfairly robbed the excitement of the last eight games in which Maris broke the record. (339)
When it came time to retire Yogi’s number 8, it was decided that former catcher Bill Dickey would share in the honors. The two retired S’s is unique in baseball. (350)
Thurman Munson was once cheered when he gave the fans the finger. (376)
One Friday afternoon while stuck in horrendous traffic, Tigers manager Billy Martin directed his starting nine off the bus and to the Lexington A venue subway, to take the number 4 train to the stadium just in time. (380)
In spring training of 1973, the baseball world was jolted when the team’s left handed starters Fritz Peterson and Mike Kekich (who wore numbers 18 and 19 and became good friends) decided they loved each others’ spouses more than their own and would participate in a “wife swap.” It was in fact more of a “life swap,” which included homes, cars, kids, pets, and possessions. (389-90)
After buying the Yankees, Steinbrenner furiously wrote down the numbers of all players he thought wore their hair too long. (390-91)
The Boston-New York rivalry did not emerge until a rivalry developed between rising catchers Thurman Munson and Carlton Fisk in the 1970s. (394)
During Salute to the Army Day while the Yankees were temporarily at Shea in 1975, a 21-gun salute from on-field canons blew a section out of the outfield wall and another section caught fire. The start of the game was held up for a half our while boards were brought in and hammered into place. (404)
Initially, when Steinbrenner began showing replays of controversial calls on the scoreboard, the American League office banned them for making the umpires look bad. (419)
Reggie Jackson initially said he would wear 42 in honor of Jackie Robinson, but decided on 20 before spring training and switched to 44 because it looked good on the back of Hank Aaron. (427)
In 1979, the Yankees tried to introduce a mascot named Dandy, but he wound up confined to the upper deck, where rumor had it that he was once beaten into submission by fans. (454)
One day in the early 70s, Appel said to Pete Sheehy, “Alright Pete, tell me about the Babe.” He was silent for a few moments and then said, “He never flushed the toilet.” (465)
One day in Baltimore, Martin forgot that rubbing his nose was actually a sign for a pitchout. He did it twice, leading to a walk of Lee Lacy, who scored the winning run on a Cal Ripken single. (466)
Andy Hawkins no-hit the White Sox in 1990 and lost the game 4-0. (479)
After losing to the Mariners, Steinbrenner gathered with seven others for dinner at a hotel restaurant. After the first two guests ordered, Steinbrenner threw down the menu and said. to the waiter, “I can’t eat; I’m too upset” The first two rescinded their orders. Eight people said quietly drinking water for dinner. (491)
Derek Jeter liked to rub Don Zimmer’s head for good luck. (495)
Mariano Rivera’s cousin Ruben was immediately released after he was caught stealing Jeter’s glove and bat from his locker to sell to a sports memorabilia dealer. (500)
Rivera’s entrance song “Enter Sandman” was selected by a group of Yankees employees who tested a variety of options. (502)
The 1998 season was the 75m anniversary of Yankee Stadium but just a few days before the ceremony, a 500-pound chunk of concrete collapsed from the stadium. Their ceremony was thus not held at Yankee Stadium. (504)
After DiMaggio’s death, the Yankees held a memorial for Joe with Paul Simon singing “Mrs. Robinson” and its line “Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?” from center field. Joe never really understood what it meant; “I’m still here,” he would say. When they finally met one day, Simon explained “It’s about the syllables, Joe. I needed five syllables there.” (509)
In his 1999 peptalk before a Red Sox series, Yogi Berra told a worried-looking Bernie Williams, “Don’t worry … these guys have been trying to beat us for 80 years.” (510)
During the 2000 World Series, Steinbrenner was disgusted by the run-down visitor’s clubhouse at Shea. He hired a moving company after the third game to take the Yankees comfy leather furniture from Yankee Stadium. He was watching Game 4 there when a pipe burst and flooded the clubhouse. (514)
After September 11, Steinbrenner donated $1 million to the Twin Towers Foundation and the Yankees sent their infield tarp to be used as a covering near Ground Zero. There is also a 9/11 plaque in Monument Park. (517)
As President Bush prepared to throw out the first pitch during the 2001 World Series, Jeter walked by and said, “Mr. President, are you going to throw from the mound or in front?” Bush asked what Jeter thought. He said, “from the mound, or else they’ll boo you.” As he walked away he looked back over his shoulder and said, “and don’t bounce it, they’ll boo you.” (520)
In Game 4 of the 2001 series, the Yanks scored two in the bottom of the ninth to force the game into extra innings. As Jeter stepped in to hit in the tenth, the clock struck midnight, becoming the first World Series game ever played in November. After Jeter hit a walk-off homer, one fan held up a “Mr. November’’ sign, though it remains a mystery why he had such a sign with him for a game that began in October. (520)
Hideki Matsui had such respect for the Yankee organization that he expressed shock that some of his teammates would spit their gum on the field, a dishonor to the historic ballpark. (526)
Jeter had constructed a 30,000 square foot mansion on Davis Island in Tampa, known locally as “St. Jetersburg.” (528)
ln 2004, the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry grew so intense that both teams had to ban vulgar T-shirts and banners, but the chants were impossible to stop. (535)
Robinson Cano is named after Jackie Robinson, and wears the number 24 as a tribute to Robinson’s 42. (538)
·Toe Yankees paid the city $11.5 to be able to sell off memorabilia from the old Yankee Stadium including seats, signs, desk, dirt, and grass. Jeter took the sign in the Yankee tunnel quoting DiMaggio’s “I want to thank the good Lord for making me a Yankee.” (554)
When it was discovered that one of the workers in the construction of the new Yankee Stadium buried a David Ortiz Jersey under the concrete for bad luck, it was dug up. (561)
The dimensions of the new stadium are the same, except that the distance to the backstop was lowered from 84 to 52. (561)
In the last game of the 2009 regular season, A-Rod went on a tear, hitting two homers and driving in seven runs in the same inning. (565)
Joe Girardi wore the number 27 all season until the Yankees won their 27th World Series. In 2010, he began wearing number 28. (267)
Lou Gehrig’s farewell: Page 210-11
Babe Ruth’s speech: Page 260-61
Joe DiMaggio’s speech: Page 278-79
Derek Jeter’s address: Page 566-67
## Steve Wulf: The Mighty Book of Sports Knowledge
Lou Gehrig stole home 15 times on double steals. While Ty Cobb had a record 54, Gehrig’s number was the third most of all post-WWII players. (9)
“I think about baseball when I wake up in the morning. I think about it all day and dream about it at night. The only time I don’t think about baseball is when I’m playing it.” –Carl Yastrzemski (34)
Baseball historians estimate that Cy Young would have won the award named after him four times, or three fewer times than Rodger Clemens. (68)
When Steve Stone won the Cy Young in 1980, the box that showed up contained a Cy Young Award with Steve Carlton’s name on it. (69)
No outfielder hated the ivy at Wrigley Field as much as Lou Novikoff, who actually thought it was poison ivy and would veer off on deep fly balls, infuriating his manager. He was such a bad outfielder that even his wife booed him. (103)
Bobby Richardson is the only second baseman and the only player from the losing team to win the World Series MVP in 1960. (106)
“Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run.” –Branch Rickey (127)
As a ritual, Kevin Millar sprinkled deer urine on his bats and Moises Alou sprinkled his own urine on his hands before a game. (145)
“Merkle’s Boner”: The Cubs and Giants were in a virtual first-place tie when they met at the Polo Ground in 1908. In the bottom of the 9th inning, with the score tied at 1, Giants runners on first and third, Al Bridwell hit an apparent game-winning single to center field. The runner on first base, Fred Merkle—playing only because of an injury to a teammate—ran off the field to celebrate without touching second base. The Cubs’ second baseman, Johnny Evers called for the ball at second base and a wrestling match ensued with the Giants’ first base coach. The ball was lost in the scuffle but Evers touched second with a ball and the umpires ruled the game a tie because the fans had already stormed the field. In a replay of the game, the Cubs won the pennant—the last time they have won the World Series. (152-153)
When asked where he wanted to be buried, Yogi Berra said, “Surprise me.” (167)
Lou Gehrig almost didn’t give his famous farewell speech. He was about to walk off the field until the crowd of 55,000 began chanting “Lou, Lou.” (202)
Lou Gehrig stole home 15 times on double steals. While Ty Cobb had a record 54, Gehrig’s number was the third most of all post-WWII players. (9)
“I think about baseball when I wake up in the morning. I think about it all day and dream about it at night. The only time I don’t think about baseball is when I’m playing it.” –Carl Yastrzemski (34)
Baseball historians estimate that Cy Young would have won the award named after him four times, or three fewer times than Rodger Clemens. (68)
When Steve Stone won the Cy Young in 1980, the box that showed up contained a Cy Young Award with Steve Carlton’s name on it. (69)
No outfielder hated the ivy at Wrigley Field as much as Lou Novikoff, who actually thought it was poison ivy and would veer off on deep fly balls, infuriating his manager. He was such a bad outfielder that even his wife booed him. (103)
Bobby Richardson is the only second baseman and the only player from the losing team to win the World Series MVP in 1960. (106)
“Man may penetrate the outer reaches of the universe, he may solve the very secret of eternity itself, but for me, the ultimate human experience is to witness the flawless execution of a hit-and-run.” –Branch Rickey (127)
As a ritual, Kevin Millar sprinkled deer urine on his bats and Moises Alou sprinkled his own urine on his hands before a game. (145)
“Merkle’s Boner”: The Cubs and Giants were in a virtual first-place tie when they met at the Polo Ground in 1908. In the bottom of the 9th inning, with the score tied at 1, Giants runners on first and third, Al Bridwell hit an apparent game-winning single to center field. The runner on first base, Fred Merkle—playing only because of an injury to a teammate—ran off the field to celebrate without touching second base. The Cubs’ second baseman, Johnny Evers called for the ball at second base and a wrestling match ensued with the Giants’ first base coach. The ball was lost in the scuffle but Evers touched second with a ball and the umpires ruled the game a tie because the fans had already stormed the field. In a replay of the game, the Cubs won the pennant—the last time they have won the World Series. (152-153)
When asked where he wanted to be buried, Yogi Berra said, “Surprise me.” (167)
Lou Gehrig almost didn’t give his famous farewell speech. He was about to walk off the field until the crowd of 55,000 began chanting “Lou, Lou.” (202)
-Alexander Cartwright is credited as the “Father of Baseball” in Cooperstown, not Abner Doubleday. Abraham Lincoln was playing a baseball game in 1860 when a message arrived for him. He told the messenger not to interrupt him during the game. Afterward, he found out he had been nominated for President by the Republican Party. The most lopsided shutout of all time was 28-0 Providence win over Philadelphia in 1883. Pitcher Asa Branard of the Cincinnati Red Stockings threw the ball at a rabbit on the field and let two runs score. In 1894, William Schriver became the first to catch a ball dropped from the top of the Washington Monument (555 feet).
-Babe Ruth lost one homerun because once the winning run scored no other runs counted. He was cheated another when it cleared the fence but bounced back. He lost more on balls that cleared the wall fair but landed in foul territory. Hank Aaron lost one homerun when a pitcher complained Aaron stepped out of the batter’s box. He lost another when a ball bounced off the roof of Sportsman’s Park, St. Louis. He did not get homeruns for balls that cleared the fence on a bounce. Aaron had 3,000 more at-bats than Ruth, but Aaron’s left field fence was 330 feet while Ruth’s right-field was under 300 feet. Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Stan Musial all started out as pitchers. Chicago runners were on first and third, deep hit to center. The winning run came in, but the runner on first didn’t make it to second. When the first baseman called for the ball, the opposing pitcher ran onto the field and tackled him; the runner was called out for interference. The Phillies, down 5-4, could postpone the game because of Sunday curfew if they stalled. The first two hitters argued each call by the umpire. The manager called in the catcher from the bullpen to pinch-hit, but he hustled in from the bullpen and flied out 52 seconds before curfew. The Athletics stalled so the game would be cancelled. They let the White Sox’s pitcher steal three bases and score a run that would end up making the difference in the game.
-Early umpires sat in rocking chairs 20 feet behind home plate. Umpire Bill Evans asked the pitcher if he’d thrown his fastball yet. When told he had, Evans deflated his chest protector and said, “Good, I won’t be needing this.” In 1952, owner Bob Howsam introduced strike zone uniforms, white only between the knees and chest. Manager gave glasses to umpire yelling “you need these more than I do!” When ejected for screaming, the manager replied “I only did that because I was afraid your ears were as bad as your eyes!” When umpire Bill Klem was told “You missed that one,” he responded “If I had your bat in my hands I wouldn’t have.” Explaining why he ejected one player, Klem said, “He wasn’t feeling well, he told me he was sick and tired of my stupid decisions.” Babe Ruth was ejected after one walk. Reliever Ernie Shore retired the runner and next 26 batters, earning the only perfect game that was not complete. Umpire Harry Johnson carried a 20/20 eye vision paper with him. Dodger Fresco Thompson called the umpire blind. The umpire shoved the rulebook in his face. Thompson responded, “How can I read that—if it’s yours it must be in braille!” Herman Killibrew had homered, tripled, and doubled twice. When the catcher complained about a ball four, the umpire responded, “At least I held him to one base.” Taking a lead off second base, Frankie Zak called timeout to tie his shoe, nullifying his team’s game winning home win. The next day, he wore zippers to practice. A couple umpires didn’t show up so the home plate umpire stood behind the pitcher with a pile of balls. A hard line drive scattered the balls around the field. The fielders frantically tagged the runner with all the balls they could get as he circled the bases. Since no one could find the real ball, it was ruled a 70-foot homerun. To convince the umpire it was too dark to play, a pitcher threw a lemon and the umpire called it a strike.
-Shortstop Luke Appling was warned to stop hitting foul balls because he was losing too many balls. Weak-hitting pitcher Jimmy St. Vrain was so surprised to get a hit, he ran to third base. A ground ball went up a fielder’s sleeve and got stuck inside his shirt. Ted Williams was on third but was laughing so hard he couldn’t run home. The center fielder ran for a deep hit, but a dog that had been sleeping along the wall ran out and bit him. In 1906, Napoleon Lajoie singled twice by throwing the bat at the ball. The 1931 Yankees had eight future Hall of Famers: Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Earle Combs, Bill Dickey, Herb Pennock, Lefty Gomez, Red Ruffing, and Joe Sewell. Down by one run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, a batter sent a ball deep to left field when it suddenly split in two. Half cleared the fence and half was caught by the outfielder. The game was ruled over by a score of 1-1/2. A deep fly ball to right field landed in a tomato can against the wall. Unable to pry the ball loose, the outfielder relayed the entire can home, but the umpire ruled the runner safe. Joe Hausman hit a homerun into a passing coal car that hauled it 32 miles. Ty Cobb often got up limping after a slide to trick the other team and would steal on the next pitch. In the 1924 World Series, the Senators manager started a right-handed pitcher in the 1924 World Series while secretly warming up a lefty under the bleachers. The lefty came in after two batters and pitched well against the left-handed lineup.
-Yogi Berra was the first to put one finger outside the back of his glove. Early MLB players bought their uniforms for $30 and paid $0.50 for hotel rooms on the road. A midget on the St. Louis Browns wore ## 1/8 in his only professional appearance. He walked, and then was replaced by a pinch runner. Ted Williams chose bats with a narrow grain—others like it wide. Hank Aaron stepped to the plate with his label facing away. When the catcher told him, Aaron responded, “I didn’t come up here to read.” Bud Hillerich was 18 years old when he made a bat for a star Louisville player. When the player went 3-for-3 the next day, word spread and Bud started the Louisville Bat Company. Babe Ruth used 170 bats one season because he gave so many away to his fans. On average, 27 balls are lost per game. Yellow balls were tried in 1938 and orange in 1973, but neither caught on. In the dead ball era of 1906, all six homeruns of leader Tommy Leach were inside the park.
-The Chicago National League Franchise (now Cubs) is the oldest team in baseball, dating back to 1876. Union Grounds in Brookly was the first ballpark with $0.10 admission and parking in the outfield. In 1929, Umpire Charles Rigler called balls and strikes through a microphone in his mask—the first PA system. Fans attending a Braves game in 1946 complained the paint on the seats wasn’t yet dry. The Braves paid over $6,000 in cleaning bills. In 1890, two New York teams had stadiums so close to each other than Mike Tiernan hit a homerun from one park to the other. Sulpher Dell in Nashville, TN is Baseball’s Most Historic Park. The warning track was a hill, the press box was so close to home plate that writers conferred with umpires during the game, and a boy on the roof tried to keep fouls from leaving the park, but sometimes lost his balance and rolled down the screen connecting the roof to the top of the backstop. Lights didn’t always work right. As one player described: “There was a 2-2 count and the pitcher was in his wind-up when all of the sudden the lights went out. I quickly hit the dirt. I must have stayed down there a good minute when I began to feel foolish and started to get up. Just as I did, the lights came on again. It was quite a sight. Every outfielder and infielder, even the catcher, was flat on the ground. The only guy standing was the pitcher. He knew where the ball was.” The St. Louis Cardinals’ groundskeeper used a goat to help him cut the grass. The Giants groundskeeper for many years lived in a three-room cottage under Polo Grounds Stadium.
-The 1909 Phillies were rained out for ten straight days, a major league record. In 1944, as a fundraiser, the NY Yankees, NY Giants, and Brooklyn Dodgers played a three-way, six-inning contest at the Polo Grounds. Each team played successive innings against the other two, then sat out an inning. Final Score: Dodgers 5, Yankees 1, Giants 0. During the World Wars, fans returned balls from the stands to send to servicemen overseas. The 1934 Cardinals formed an excellent band called the Mississippi Mudcats.
-Manager Earl Weaver was ejected 90 times in his 17-year career. Dodger Wilbert Robinson tried to catch a baseball dropped from an airplane, but his trainer dropped a red grapefruit instead. When he caught it, Robinson exclaimed, “It broke me open! I’m covered in blood!” After injuring himself in a bathtub fall, Zeke Barnes was fined $100 by his manager, but ended up making $200 endorsing a bathtub mat company.
-Hank Aaron and Willie Mays each went 0 for 5 in their major league debuts. Washington Player Goose Goslin tried to keep Babe Ruth up all night so he would not do well the next day but Ruth hit two homers and Goslin went 0-for-5. A catcher tried to distract Rogers Hornsby while he was at the plate by talking about food. Hornsby got two strikes and the catcher tried to finish him off by inviting him to his house for dinner. The next pitch, Rogers homered. As he crossed home plate he said, “What night shall we make it?” Mickey Cochrane played five different sports at Boston University: baseball, football, basketball, track, and boxing. When someone asked Yogi Berra how he liked school as a child he replied, “Closed.” In 1963 the San Francisco Giants had an outfield of brothers: Matty, Jesus, and Felipe Alou. The three hit back to back in the eighth inning, all three grounded out.
-Manager John McGraw of the Giants fined a hitter $25 for hitting a homerun with two men on base when he was ordered to bunt. Manager Leo Durocher suspected he would be thrown out of the game so he reserved a spot in the press box where he could still give signs to his players. When the broadcaster in front of him adjusted his glasses Durocher yelled, “You’ve just given him the steal sign!” Giants manager Bill Terry watched his team fall 10 ½ games back in the division. He disobeyed his doctor’s orders and played; he tripled home the winning run. The Giants came back to win the pennant. Manager Alvin Dark said he always relied on a “p” word while managing: power in San Francisco, pitching in Oakland, and prayer in Cleveland. Yankee manager Casey Stengel was riding home in New York one day when he saw a Dodger player yelling at his own child for stealing a piece of fruit. All Stengel knew was the player had gone hitless so he yelled, “You go 0-for-4 and take it out on the kid, huh?” Stengel waved his cap at the fans one day and a pigeon flew out. In the minors, Stengel entertained his fans by sliding out to his position in center field. A mental asylum was located behind one minor league ballpark. One day, Stengel’s manager pointed to it and said, “It’s only a matter of time, Stengel.” During a boring minor league game, Stengel found a manhole in center field and climbed down into it. When the ball was hit to him he amazingly popped back up and caught it. After Stengel hit two key homeruns in the World Series he said, “The series stands two games for the Yankees and two games for Stengel. What happened to the Giants?” Manager Rogers Hornsby gave the only elevator operator his team’s hotel a baseball at midnight (the team’s curfew) and bribed him to get the autograph of every baseball player that came through. Therefore he knew who was out past curfew. Gil Hodges told his Washington Senators that anyone who was out past curfew should put $100 in a cigar box on his desk. He said he knew there were four offenders. He found $700. White Sox manager Paul Richards played his left-handed pitcher at third and right-hander at pitcher so he could switch them off according to the hand of the batter. Manager Charley Dressen got so excited yelling at a batter to run after a dropped third strike that he jumped, hit his head on the dugout roof, and collapsed.
-Landis voluntarily cut his pay from 60 K to 40 K during the Depression. Not only did Landis suspend the “Blacksox” for life, he also erased their records including Joe Jackson’s .356 lifetime batting average. Baseball schedules are drawn up by league executives who know plane schedules by heart. The process usually takes about 90 days and they send copies to the team secretaries. In 1898, one family owned two teams. They traded all their best players to St. Louis; destroying their Cleveland team who was so bad they were afraid to play in front of their own fans. Beer Baron August “Gussie” Busch, owner of the St. Louis Cardinals, tried to hire Alvin Dark as a manager. Dark, a prohibitionist, said he could not work with a team affiliated with Anheuser-Busch breweries. Bill Veeck is best known for inventing the “exploding” scoreboard, letting a midget bat in a regular season game, having a peg leg, and saving the White Sox Franchise. Athletics owner Charley Finley is well known for trading constantly, promoting the use of color uniforms/white shoes, and renewing the style of mustaches on players (he offered bonuses to players who grew them). Braves owner Ted Turner is known for jumping fences to greet homerun hitters, collapsing on the field in deathlike poses after defeat, throwing himself into collegiate mattress stuffing contests, finishing second in a motorized bathtub race, joining a pre-game ostrich race, helping ball girls sweep the bases between innings, playing poker with the players, hosting champagne parties for fans, and painting “THE ENEMY” on the visiting dugout.
-Mike Morgan played for 12 different teams, the most in baseball history. In 1931, the President of the Chatanooga Lookouts traded his shortstop for a turkey. As a rookie, Cy Young was traded for a suit of clothes. In 1922, the Cubs traded Max Flack for Cliff Heathcote of the Cardinals between the games of a doubleheader. They were the first two major leaguers to play for two teams in one day.
-At one Dodger game fans hung their coats up along the left field railing. Fearing it could interfere with the game, the umpire told the Public Address Announcer to get the fans to move their jackets. The PA Announcer said, “Will the fans along the left field line please remove their clothing?” Gladys Goodding, the organist at Ebbets field won fame her second day on the job when she played “Three Blind Mice” as the three umpires walked onto the field. The fans roared. Dodger Stadium vender Roger Owens became well known for his accuracy of throwing peanut bags to customers. He claimed he could throw 65 rows. An ice cream vendor tried to do the same and ended up hitting a woman in the forehead. Throwing was banned for a while until fans complained. The Dodgers let Owens throw the first pitch of the ’77 season from the balcony, the longest first pitch ever.
-Henry Chadwick, who wrote the first baseball rulebook in 1858, is the only writer in the Hall of Fame. Scout Grantland Rice received many anonymous letters urging him to see a ballplayer named Ty Cobb. He later found those letters were from Cobb himself. Ty Cobb’s 4,000th hit and Babe Ruth’s 714th homerun received very little to no attention from the media. Some Dodger fans brought radios with them to the cavernous Los Angeles coliseum because they were seated so far from the field they had trouble seeing the action. Radio announcer Vin Scully tested the number of radios in the park by asking fans to sing happy birthday to umpire Frank Secory. Baseball radio announcer Waite Hoyt was so good at filling time when there was rain delays that a record came out called The Best of Waite Hoyt in the Rain. Rosey Rosewell of the Pirates strayed away from the original “Going…Going… Gone!” way of announcing a homerun when he called: “Open the Window Aunt Minnie, here it comes.” He then smashed a light bulb near the microphone. Jack Brickhouse describing a TV announcing experience: “At one point the batter hit a tremendous fly. I described the flight of the ball and the fielder chasing it and was sure I saw him catch the ball. On my monitor, the ball was still in flight. The camera followed it over the wall, over housetops, and on until the cameraman realized he was not following the ball but had picked up a bird.” Announcers had trouble switching from radio to TV because they didn’t know whether to talk more or less, and they realized their mistakes would become painfully obvious to those who could see and hear.
-Only 4 players have won series MVPs in the playoffs, even though their teams lost. In 1940, rookie Floyd Giebell pitched an important shutout to save the pennant for the Tigers, one of his only 3 career wins. In 1887, the World Series was a 15-game tour that went to the following cities: St. Louis, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Brooklyn, New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Philadelphia again, Washington, Baltimore, back to Brooklyn, Detroit again, Chicago, and back to St. Louis for the final two games. After the travel-weary Giants and Browns tied a 10-game series the next year, the marathon idea was scrapped. World Champions receive a trophy with the flag of all the teams, latitude/longitude lines symbolizing the earth, 24-karat vermeil stitches resembling a baseball, and the signature of the commissioner. The trophy is 24 inches tall, 22 inches wide, and takes Tiffany & Company over 3 months to make. From 1959-1962, there were two All-Star games each year, but a decrease in fan interest caused the return to one game in 1963. The Cincinnati Reds started as the Red Stockings. They then shortened it to the Reds, making it the Redlegs in times when it would be politically dangerous to use Reds.
-Bobo Newsom had a bad superstition about trash on the pithing mound; he would be careful to pick up all scraps before he pitched. Other teams would taunt him by sprinkling litter on the mound between innings. The Senators and Reds traditionally had opening day before the rest of their leagues, until the Senators moved away. Presidents attending baseball games received a body guard to protect them from foul balls, broken bats, homeruns, or bad throws.
-When Bucky Harris was managing the Washington Senators one day, he drew special attention from owner Clark Griffith. Standing in the field with a young player, Harris appeared to be teaching the art of proper throwing. “Look at Harris,” said Griffith, “he’s never too busy to teach a young fellow the right way.” In truth, Harris was getting tips from the rookie on fly fishing. Ty Cobb wore weighted shoes throughout spring training, he removed them on opening day.
-The 1977 White Sox briefly experimented with wearing shorts. Bush Leaguer Gene Rye hit 3 homeruns in one inning on August 6, 1930. In 1971, pitcher Ken Frailing pitched a Mexican city its first no-hitter. Over 50 fans took him out to bars to celebrate; but the next morning he found a $500 bill in his mailbox. Each fan had signed his name under the tab at the bars. Japanese baseball is quite different from American. First of all, when a pitcher is pulled, he heads back to the bullpen until he “meets the fans’ approval.” Also, fans sit in sections based on who they are rooting for. Finally, games can end in ties, there are no extra innings. During WWII, when an American took a Japanese prisoner, the prisoner asked in plain English, “Who won the World Series?”
-In addition to a midget, owner Bill Veeck also tried to send a 9’ 3” British giant to the plate. -Frank Bancroft organized baseball Olympics which included: long-distance throwing, races, fungo-hitting, and homerun derbies. In 1894, Cincinnati ground rules permitted outfielders to go after balls in the stands. When one visiting outfielder did this he was assaulted by several fans, even one with a gun. The Braves attracted loads of fans for “Wet T-Shirt Night,” but ran into trouble when the winner’s father was a Methodist minister. In 1997 the total MLB fan attendance was 64 million people, more than the attendances of the NFL, NHL, and NBA combined. In 1935, Chuck Klein, who had been in a slump, hit .340 immediately after receiving a letter from a fan who’d noticed a flaw in his swing.
-There were threats of a third “Continental League” in the 1960s, but it never happened. Four players have played all nine positions in one game. Cleveland Shortstop Johnny Burnett holds a record 9 hits in the 18-inning game played in 1932. In his last at-bat in the majors, Joe Pignatano hit into a triple play. In 2000, Derek Jeter became the first player to be named MVP of the All-Star Game and World Series in the same season. Stealing King Rickey Henderson got his 3000th hit on the last day of the season.